Pearcedale - Tooradin

An assessment of population growth drivers in Pearcedale - Tooradin reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Pearcedale - Tooradin's population is around 8,278 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 254 people (3.2%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 8,024 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 8,253 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 40 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 84 persons per square kilometer, providing significant space per person and potential room for further development. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by natural growth, which contributed approximately 80.7% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering the projected demographic shifts, a population increase just below the median of statistical areas analysed by AreaSearch is expected, with the area expected to grow by 486 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a gain of 5.6% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Pearcedale - Tooradin, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Pearcedale - Tooradin has experienced around 21 dwellings receiving development approval each year, totalling 107 homes over the past 5 financial years. So far in FY-26, 5 approvals have been recorded. At an average of just 0.9 new residents per year arriving per new home over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), supply is meeting or surpassing demand, providing greater buyer choice and supporting potential for population growth above projections, while new homes are being built at an average value of $299,000, aligned with broader regional development. Additionally, $1.6 million in commercial approvals have been registered this financial year, demonstrating the area's residential nature.

When measured against Greater Melbourne, Pearcedale - Tooradin has significantly less development activity (83.0% below regional average per person). This constrained new construction usually reinforces demand and pricing for existing homes. This activity is similarly below the national average, indicating the area's established nature and suggesting potential planning limitations. Recent construction comprises 94.0% standalone homes and 6.0% townhouses or apartments, preserving the area's low density nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers. The estimated count of 479 people in the area per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low activity development environment.

Future projections show Pearcedale - Tooradin adding 461 residents by 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Pearcedale - Tooradin has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 36thth percentile nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total 5 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include the Yaringa Boat Harbour Expansion, Botanic Ridge Estate, and the Western Port Highway Upgrade, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Pearcedale - Tooradin demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Pearcedale - Tooradin possesses a balanced workforce spanning white and blue collar employment, with the construction sector a particular standout in terms of representation, an unemployment rate of only 3.1%, and 4.7% in estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 4,798 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 1.7% below Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%, and workforce participation is fairly standard (73.6% compared to Greater Melbourne's 71.3%). Based on Census responses, a moderate 17.6% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Leading employment industries among residents comprise construction, health care & social assistance, and manufacturing. The area demonstrates a particularly notable concentration in construction, with employment levels at 2.2 times the regional average. In contrast, professional & technical services employ just 4.0% of local workers, below Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. The area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of the Census working population versus the resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, over the 12 months to December 2025, employment increased by 4.7% while the labour force increased by 4.7%, with unemployment remaining essentially unchanged. This contrasts with Greater Melbourne, where employment rose by 2.4%, the labour force grew by 2.8%, and unemployment rose 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Pearcedale - Tooradin. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Pearcedale - Tooradin's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.5% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

The economic profile demonstrates above-average performance, with income metrics exceeding national benchmarks based on AreaSearch comparative assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for FY-23 reveals that income in the Pearcedale - Tooradin SA2 is in line with national averages, with the median assessed at $55,797 while the average income stands at $67,205. This contrasts with Greater Melbourne's figures of a median income of $57,688 and an average income of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $60,400 (median) and $72,749 (average) as of September 2025. From the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes in Pearcedale - Tooradin cluster around the 53rd percentile nationally. Income brackets indicate the $1,500 - 2,999 earnings band captures 37.2% of the community (3,079 individuals), consistent with broader trends across the area showing 32.8% in the same category. After housing, 85.4% of income remains for other expenses and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Pearcedale - Tooradin is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within Pearcedale - Tooradin, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 98.3% houses and 1.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Pearcedale - Tooradin was well beyond that of Melbourne metro, at 35.0%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (53.7%) or rented (11.3%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was below the Melbourne metro average at $1,901, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $370, compared to Melbourne metro's $2,000 and $390. Nationally, Pearcedale - Tooradin's mortgage repayments are higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are less than the national figure of $375.

Pearcedale - Tooradin features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 80.3% of all households, comprising 39.7% couples with children, 29.4% couples without children, and 9.9% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 19.7%, with lone person households at 17.7% and group households comprising 1.9% of the total. The median household size of 2.8 people is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Pearcedale - Tooradin shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (13.4%) substantially below the Greater Melbourne average of 37.0%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 9.3%, followed by graduate diplomas (2.1%) and postgraduate qualifications (2.0%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 44.4% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (10.2%) and certificates (34.2%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 28.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.6% in primary education, 8.3% in secondary education, and 3.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 47 active transport stops operating within Pearcedale - Tooradin, comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 4 individual routes, collectively providing 493 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 396 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 96%. Vehicle ownership averages 2.2 per dwelling, which is above the regional average. Some 17.6% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 70 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 10 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Pearcedale - Tooradin is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population and nearer the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Pearcedale - Tooradin demonstrates above-average health outcomes, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The prevalence of common health conditions is low among the general population and closer to the national average across older, at-risk cohorts. The rate of private health cover just leads the average SA2 area at approximately 53% of the total population (~4,354 people), compared to 56.7% across Greater Melbourne.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and asthma, impacting 8.9% and 8.8% of residents, respectively, while 67.7% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents show an above-average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 18.8% of residents aged 65 and over (1,556 people), which is higher than the 15.1% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, though they rank lower nationally than the broader population.

Pearcedale - Tooradin is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Pearcedale - Tooradin was found to be below average in terms of cultural diversity, with 87.7% of its population born in Australia, 90.6% being citizens, and 96.3% speaking English only at home. The main religion in Pearcedale - Tooradin is Christianity, which makes up 40.6% of the population. However, the most apparent overrepresentation was in Islam, which comprises 0.4% of the population, substantially lower than the Greater Melbourne average of 5.6%.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Pearcedale - Tooradin are Australian, comprising 32.9% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 18.4%, English, comprising 32.7% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 20.1%, and Scottish, comprising 7.6% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Dutch is notably overrepresented at 2.6% of Pearcedale - Tooradin (vs 1.2% regionally), Hungarian at 0.4% (vs 0.3%) and Serbian at 0.4% (vs 0.4%).

Pearcedale - Tooradin's population is slightly older than the national pattern

With a median age of 40, Pearcedale - Tooradin is somewhat higher than the Greater Melbourne figure of 37 and similarly marginally higher than Australia's 38 years. Compared to the Greater Melbourne average, the 55 - 64 cohort is notably over-represented (14.4% locally), while 25 - 34 year-olds are under-represented (10.5%). In the period since 2021, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 4.1% to 6.1% of the population. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 14.2% to 12.7% and the 25 to 34 group dropped from 11.8% to 10.5%. Demographic modeling suggests Pearcedale - Tooradin's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041. The 75 to 84 age cohort is projected to see notable expansion, increasing by 253 people (50%) from 507 to 761. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 85% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. Meanwhile, the 25 to 34 and 55 to 64 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.