Pearcedale - Tooradin

An assessment of population growth drivers in Pearcedale - Tooradin reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Pearcedale - Tooradin's population is around 8,278 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 254 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 8,024 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 8,253 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 40 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 84 persons per square kilometer. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by natural growth that contributed approximately 80.7% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering the projected demographic shifts, a population increase just below the median of statistical areas analysed by AreaSearch is expected, with the area expected to grow by 486 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting recording a gain of 5.6% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Pearcedale - Tooradin, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Pearcedale - Tooradin has received approximately 21 dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 107 homes from FY-21 to FY-25. As of FY-26, four approvals have been recorded. On average, 0.9 new residents per year have arrived with each new home constructed between FY-21 and FY-25. The average construction value of these homes was $299,000.

In FY-26, $1.6 million in commercial approvals were registered. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Pearcedale - Tooradin has significantly less development activity, 83.0% below the regional average per person. Recent construction comprises 94.0% standalone homes and 6.0% townhouses or apartments. The estimated population per dwelling approval is 479 people. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Pearcedale - Tooradin is projected to add 461 residents by 2041.

Future projections show Pearcedale - Tooradin adding 461 residents by 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Pearcedale - Tooradin has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 36thth percentile nationally

Five projects were identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area: Yaringa Boat Harbour Expansion, Botanic Ridge Estate, Western Port Highway Upgrade. These are considered key projects.

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Pearcedale - Tooradin ranks among the top 25% of areas assessed nationally for overall employment performance

Pearcedale - Tooradin has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs. The construction sector is prominent, with an unemployment rate of 3.0% as of September 2025. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 5.1%.

There are 4,753 residents currently employed, which is 1.6% below Greater Melbourne's unemployment rate of 4.7%. Workforce participation is similar to Greater Melbourne's 71.0%. According to Census responses, 17.6% of residents work from home. The leading employment industries are construction, health care & social assistance, and manufacturing.

Construction employment levels are at 2.2 times the regional average, while professional & technical services employ only 4.0% of local workers, below Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. Over the 12 months to September 2025, employment increased by 5.1%, labour force grew by 4.7%, and unemployment fell by 0.4 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment rise by 3.0%, labour force grow by 3.3%, and unemployment rise by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Pearcedale - Tooradin's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.5% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localised population projections.

The economic profile demonstrates above-average performance, with income metrics exceeding national benchmarks based on AreaSearch comparative assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows median income in Pearcedale - Tooradin SA2 is $55,797 and average income is $67,205. These figures are comparable to national averages but lower than Greater Melbourne's median of $57,688 and average of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, estimated median income as of September 2025 is approximately $60,400 and average income is $72,749. According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Pearcedale - Tooradin cluster around the 53rd percentile nationally. The income bracket of $1,500 - 2,999 captures 37.2% of the community (3,079 individuals), which is consistent with broader trends across the area showing 32.8% in the same category. After housing, 85.4% of income remains for other expenses and Pearcedale - Tooradin's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Pearcedale - Tooradin is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Pearcedale - Tooradin's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, had 98.3% houses and 1.7% other dwellings. In contrast, Melbourne metro had 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Pearcedale - Tooradin was 35.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 53.7% and rented ones at 11.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,901, lower than Melbourne metro's $2,000. The median weekly rent was $370, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Pearcedale - Tooradin's mortgage repayments were higher at $1,901 versus Australia's average of $1,863, while rents were lower at $370 against the national figure of $375.

Pearcedale - Tooradin features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 80.3% of all households, including 39.7% couples with children, 29.4% couples without children, and 9.9% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 19.7%, with lone person households at 17.7% and group households comprising 1.9%. The median household size is 2.8 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6 people.

Pearcedale - Tooradin shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

The area's university qualification rate is 13.4%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 9.3%, followed by graduate diplomas (2.1%) and postgraduate qualifications (2.0%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 44.4% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.2%) and certificates (34.2%). Educational participation is high, with 28.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, broken down into primary (10.6%), secondary (8.3%), and tertiary (3.0%) levels.

Educational participation is notably high, with 28.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.6% in primary education, 8.3% in secondary education, and 3.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Pearcedale - Tooradin has 47 active public transport stops offering a mix of bus services. These are covered by four routes, collectively facilitating 493 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated good, with residents typically situated 396 meters from the nearest stop. As a predominantly residential area, most commuters travel outward, primarily by car (96%). Average vehicle ownership per dwelling stands at 2.2, exceeding the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, 17.6% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 70 trips daily across all routes, translating to roughly 10 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Pearcedale - Tooradin is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population and nearer the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Pearcedale-Tooradin demonstrates better-than-average health outcomes based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The prevalence of common health conditions is low among the general population but nears the national average in older, at-risk cohorts.

Approximately 53% of the total population (~4,354 people) has private health cover, slightly higher than the SA2 area average of 50%. This compares to Greater Melbourne's average of 56.7%. The most common medical conditions are arthritis and asthma, affecting 8.9% and 8.8% of residents respectively. A total of 67.7% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 72.6% in Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents show a higher-than-average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 18.8% of residents aged 65 and over (1,556 people), which is higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 15.1%. Health outcomes among seniors are above average but rank lower nationally compared to the broader population.

Pearcedale - Tooradin is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Pearcedale-Tooradin has a low cultural diversity, with 87.7% born in Australia, 90.6% being citizens, and 96.3% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the major religion, comprising 40.6%. Islam is underrepresented at 0.4%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 5.6%.

Ancestry wise, Australian (32.9%) and English (32.7%) are high, surpassing regional averages of 18.4% and 20.1% respectively. Scottish ancestry is also notable at 7.6%. Dutch ethnicity is overrepresented at 2.6%, compared to the region's 1.2%. Hungarian and Serbian ethnicities are present at 0.4% each, matching or slightly exceeding regional averages.

Pearcedale - Tooradin's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Pearcedale - Tooradin has a median age of 40, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and Australia's figure of 38. The 55-64 cohort is notably over-represented at 14.4%, while the 25-34 cohort is under-represented at 10.5%. Between 2021 and present, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 4.1% to 6.1%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort declined from 14.2% to 12.7%, and the 25 to 34 cohort dropped from 11.8% to 10.5%. Demographic modeling suggests that by 2041, Pearcedale - Tooradin's age profile will evolve significantly. The 75 to 84 age cohort is projected to expand by 253 people (50%), from 507 to 761. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups are expected to account for 85% of total population growth. Meanwhile, the 25 to 34 and 55 to 64 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.