Pearcedale - Tooradin
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Pearcedale - Tooradin reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Pearcedale - Tooradin's population, as per AreaSearch's analysis, is approximately 8,258 as of November 2025. This figure reflects a growth of 234 people, representing a 2.9% increase since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 8,024. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 8,253 in June 2024 and an additional 35 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 83 persons per square kilometer, offering significant space per person with potential for further development. Natural growth contributed approximately 80.7% to overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. According to population projections, the area is expected to grow by approximately 486 persons by 2041, indicating a total gain of around 5.8% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Pearcedale - Tooradin, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Pearcedale - Tooradin has seen approximately 21 new homes approved annually. Between FY-21 and FY-25, a total of 107 homes were approved, with another one approved so far in FY-26. Over these five financial years, an average of 0.9 people moved to the area for each dwelling built.

This suggests that supply is meeting or exceeding demand, offering more buyer choices and supporting potential population growth above projections. The average construction cost value of new properties is $299,000, aligning with regional patterns. In FY-26, commercial approvals totaling $1.6 million have been registered, indicating a primarily residential focus. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Pearcedale - Tooradin has significantly less development activity, 83.0% below the regional average per person. This scarcity of new dwellings typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties.

This trend is also lower than national averages, reflecting market maturity and possible development constraints. New building activity shows 94.0% detached houses and 6.0% attached dwellings, preserving the area's low-density nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers. The estimated population count per dwelling approval is 479 people, indicating a quiet, low-activity development environment. Population forecasts indicate Pearcedale - Tooradin will gain 481 residents by 2041. With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favorable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Pearcedale - Tooradin has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Five projects have been identified by AreaSearch as likely to impact the area. These include Botanic Ridge Estate, Western Port Highway Upgrade (scheduled for completion in 2023), another project titled Western Port Highway Upgrade, and Cranbourne West Secondary College (expected to open in February 2024). The following list details those projects deemed most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Pearcedale - Tooradin demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Pearcedale - Tooradin has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs. The construction sector is prominent here, with an unemployment rate of 3.1% and estimated employment growth of 4.8% in the past year.

As of June 2025, there are 4,777 residents employed, which is below Greater Melbourne's unemployment rate of 4.6%. The workforce participation rate is similar to Greater Melbourne at 64.1%. Employment is concentrated in construction, health care & social assistance, and manufacturing. Construction employment levels are particularly high, at 2.2 times the regional average.

Professional & technical jobs have limited presence, with only 4.0% compared to the regional average of 10.1%. The area may offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by Census data. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment increased by 4.8%, while labour force grew by 4.4%, reducing the unemployment rate by 0.3 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne had employment growth of 3.5% with a rise in unemployment by 0.5 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 suggest potential future demand within Pearcedale - Tooradin. These projections estimate national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying rates across industry sectors. Applying these projections to Pearcedale - Tooradin's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.0% over five years and 12.5% over ten years.

The economic profile demonstrates above-average performance, with income metrics exceeding national benchmarks based on AreaSearch comparative assessment

Pearcedale - Tooradin had a median taxpayer income of $52,198 and an average income of $63,549 in the financial year 2022, according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. This was below Greater Melbourne's median income of $54,892 and average income of $73,761 during the same period. By September 2025, estimates suggest the median income would be approximately $58,545 and the average income $71,277, based on a 12.16% growth in wages since financial year 2022. Census data shows that incomes in Pearcedale - Tooradin cluster around the 53rd percentile nationally. The largest income bracket comprises 37.2% of residents earning $1,500 to $2,999 weekly (3,071 residents), similar to the surrounding region where 32.8% fall into this bracket. After housing costs, 85.4% of income remains for other expenses. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the fifth decile.

Pearcedale - Tooradin is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Pearcedale - Tooradin, as per the latest Census, 98.3% of dwellings were houses with the remaining 1.7% being semi-detached, apartments, or other types. This contrasts with Melbourne metro's 91.5% houses and 8.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Pearcedale - Tooradin stood at 35.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 53.7% and rented ones at 11.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,901, lower than Melbourne metro's average of $1,950. The median weekly rent was $370, compared to Melbourne metro's $386. Nationally, Pearcedale - Tooradin's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were lower than the national figure of $375.

Pearcedale - Tooradin features high concentrations of family households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 80.3% of all households, including 39.7% couples with children, 29.4% couples without children, and 9.9% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 19.7%, with lone person households at 17.7% and group households comprising 1.9%. The median household size is 2.8 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 3.2.

Pearcedale - Tooradin shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates at 13.4%, significantly lower than the Greater Melbourne average of 37.0%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 9.3%, followed by graduate diplomas (2.1%) and postgraduate qualifications (2.0%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 44.4% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas (10.2%) and certificates (34.2%).

Educational participation is high at 28.3%, including primary education (10.6%), secondary education (8.3%), and tertiary education (3.0%). Pearcedale-Tooradin's 3 schools have a combined enrollment of 1,003 students as of the latest data, with typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1007) indicating balanced educational opportunities. The 3 schools focus exclusively on primary education, with secondary options available in surrounding areas. School places per 100 residents are at 12.2, below the regional average of 15.4, suggesting some students may attend schools in adjacent areas. Note: where schools show 'n/a' for enrolments, please refer to parent campus.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Pearcedale - Tooradin has 47 active public transport stops. These are served by buses along six different routes, offering a total of 799 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated good, with residents located an average of 396 meters from the nearest stop.

Across all routes, service frequency averages 114 trips per day, equating to about 17 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Pearcedale - Tooradin is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Pearcedale-Tooradin faces significant health challenges with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. Approximately 51% of its total population (~4,228 people) has private health cover, slightly lower than Greater Melbourne's 49.1%.

The most common medical conditions are arthritis (affecting 8.9% of residents) and asthma (8.8%). Around 67.7% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 76.4% in Greater Melbourne. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 18.0% (1,483 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 9.6%. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, performing better than the general population in health metrics.

Pearcedale - Tooradin is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Pearcedale-Tooradin showed low cultural diversity, with 87.7% born in Australia, 90.6% being citizens, and 96.3% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the dominant religion (40.6%), significantly lower than Islam's regional average of 11.1%. Ancestry showed Australian dominance (32.9%, vs regional 17.7%) followed by English (32.7%, vs 17.5%) and Scottish (7.6%).

Dutch (2.6% vs 1.3%), Hungarian (0.4% vs 0.4%), and Serbian (0.4% vs 0.5%) groups showed notable divergences in representation compared to regional averages.

Pearcedale - Tooradin's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Pearcedale - Tooradin has a median age of 40, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and Australia's median age of 38. The 55-64 cohort makes up 14.5% of the local population, compared to the Greater Melbourne average, while those aged 25-34 are under-represented at 10.8%. Between 2021 and present, the 75-84 age group has increased from 4.1% to 5.8%, while the 45-54 cohort has decreased from 14.2% to 13.1%. By 2041, Pearcedale - Tooradin's age profile is projected to change significantly. The 75-84 age group is expected to grow by 60%, adding 284 people and reaching a total of 761. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will contribute to 90% of total population growth. Conversely, the 55-64 and 25-34 cohorts are anticipated to experience population declines.