Pearcedale - Tooradin

An assessment of population growth drivers in Pearcedale - Tooradin reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Pearcedale - Tooradin's population is around 8,274 as of May 2026. This reflects an increase from the 2021 Census figure of 8,024 people, marking a growth of 250 individuals (3.1%). The change was inferred from ABS estimated resident population figures: 8,272 in June 2025 and an additional 40 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 84 persons per square kilometer. Natural growth contributed approximately 74.6% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking ahead, population projections indicate a growth of 464 persons to 2041, reflecting an increase of approximately 5.6% over the 16-year period based on the latest annual ERP population numbers.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Pearcedale - Tooradin, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Pearcedale - Tooradin has seen approximately 21 new homes approved annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, around 107 homes have been approved, with an additional 12 approved so far in FY-26. On average, about 0.9 people per year moved to the area for each dwelling built during these years.

This suggests that supply is meeting or exceeding demand, offering greater buyer choice and supporting potential population growth above projections. The average construction cost of new properties was around $299,000, which aligns with regional patterns. In FY-26, approximately $1.6 million in commercial approvals have been registered, indicating a predominantly residential focus in the area's development activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Pearcedale - Tooradin has significantly less development activity, with 82.0% below the regional average per person. This scarcity of new dwellings typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties.

The type of new building activity shows that 94.0% are detached houses, while 6.0% are attached dwellings. This preserves the area's low density nature and attracts space-seeking buyers who prefer detached housing. The estimated population per dwelling approval is around 479 people in the area. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Pearcedale - Tooradin is projected to gain approximately 462 residents by 2041. With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favorable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Pearcedale - Tooradin has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 33rdth percentile nationally

Five projects are expected to influence the local area's performance: Yaringa Boat Harbour Expansion, Botanic Ridge Estate, Western Port Highway Upgrade (scheduled for completion by 2025), and another Western Port Highway Upgrade project.

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Employment conditions in Pearcedale - Tooradin demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Pearcedale - Tooradin has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs. The construction sector is prominent with an unemployment rate of 3.1%. Over the past year, employment grew by 4.7%.

As of December 2025, 4,798 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.7% below Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%. Workforce participation is 73.5%, slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's 69.9%. Home-based work accounts for 17.6% of jobs. Key industries include construction, health care & social assistance, and manufacturing.

Construction employment is particularly high at 2.2 times the regional average. Professional & technical services have limited presence with only 4.0% employment compared to the regional average of 10.1%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited as indicated by Census data comparing working population to resident population. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment increased by 4.7%, keeping unemployment relatively stable at 3.1%. Greater Melbourne recorded lower employment growth (2.4%) but higher labour force growth (2.8%), with a slight rise in unemployment (0.3 percentage points). National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia indicate total employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Pearcedale - Tooradin's industry mix suggests local employment could increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.5% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

The economic profile demonstrates above-average performance, with income metrics exceeding national benchmarks based on AreaSearch comparative assessment

The median taxpayer income in Pearcedale - Tooradin SA2 is $55,797, with an average of $67,205. This data was aggregated by AreaSearch from the latest postcode level ATO figures for financial year 2023. Comparing these numbers to national averages reveals they are in line with them, while Greater Melbourne's median income is $57,688 and average income is $75,164. Considering a 9.62% growth since FY2023 based on the Wage Price Index, current estimates for Pearcedale - Tooradin would be approximately $61,165 (median) and $73,670 (average) as of March 2026. Census data shows incomes in this area cluster around the 53rd percentile nationally. The largest income bracket comprises 37.2% earning between $1,500 to $2,999 weekly, with a total of 3,077 residents falling into this category. This is similar to the surrounding region where 32.8% earn within this range. After accounting for housing expenses, 85.4% of income remains for other costs. Pearcedale - Tooradin's SEIFA income ranking places it in the fifth decile.

Pearcedale - Tooradin is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Pearcedale - Tooradin's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, comprised 98.3% houses and 1.7% other dwellings. In comparison, Melbourne metro had 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Pearcedale - Tooradin was at 35.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 53.7% and rented ones at 11.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,901, lower than Melbourne metro's $2,000. The median weekly rent figure was $370, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Pearcedale - Tooradin's mortgage repayments were higher at $1,901 versus the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were lower at $370 compared to the national figure of $375.

Pearcedale - Tooradin features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 80.3% of all households, including 39.7% couples with children, 29.4% couples without children, and 9.9% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 19.7%, with lone person households at 17.7% and group households comprising 1.9%. The median household size is 2.8 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Pearcedale - Tooradin shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

The area's university qualification rate is 13.4%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common, at 9.3%, followed by graduate diplomas (2.1%) and postgraduate qualifications (2.0%). Vocational credentials are prevalent among residents aged 15 and above, with 44.4% holding such qualifications.

Advanced diplomas account for 10.2% and certificates for 34.2%. Educational participation is high, with 28.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.6% in primary education, 8.3% in secondary education, and 3.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Pearcedale - Tooradin has 47 active public transport stops offering a mix of bus services. These are covered by four routes which together facilitate 493 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated good with residents, on average, located 396 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward daily. Car remains the primary mode of transport used by 96% of residents. Vehicle ownership averages 2.2 per dwelling, above the regional norm.

According to the 2021 Census, 17.6% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency across all routes averages 70 trips per day, equating to roughly 10 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Pearcedale - Tooradin is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population and nearer the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Pearcedale-Tooradin shows better-than-average health outcomes based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The prevalence of common health conditions is low among the general population but closer to national averages for older, at-risk cohorts.

Private health cover rate is approximately 53% of the total population (~4,352 people), slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 56.7%. Common medical conditions include arthritis (8.9%) and asthma (8.8%). 67.7% of residents report being completely free from medical ailments, compared to 72.6% in Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents have a higher-than-average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 18.8% of residents aged 65 and over (1,552 people), which is higher than Greater Melbourne's 15.0%. Health outcomes among seniors are above average but rank lower nationally compared to the broader population.

Pearcedale - Tooradin is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Pearcedale-Tooradin showed lower cultural diversity, with 87.7% born in Australia, 90.6% being citizens, and 96.3% speaking English only at home. The dominant religion was Christianity at 40.6%. Islam's representation was 0.4%, significantly below Greater Melbourne's 5.6%.

Top ancestry groups were Australian (32.9%), English (32.7%), and Scottish (7.6%). Notable differences included Dutch (2.6% vs regional 1.2%), Hungarian (0.4% vs 0.3%), and Serbian (0.4% vs 0.4%).

Pearcedale - Tooradin's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Pearcedale - Tooradin has a median age of 40, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and Australia's figure of 38. The 55-64 cohort makes up 14.2% of the local population, notably higher than the Greater Melbourne average, while the 25-34 cohort makes up 10.7%, which is lower than the Greater Melbourne average. Between 2021 and present, the 75 to 84 age group has increased from 4.1% to 6.0%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has decreased from 14.2% to 12.8%, and the 25 to 34 cohort has dropped from 11.8% to 10.7%. Demographic modeling suggests that Pearcedale - Tooradin's age profile will significantly change by 2041. The 75 to 84 age cohort is projected to grow by 250 people (50%) from 499 to 750. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups are expected to account for 85% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. Meanwhile, the 25 to 34 and 55 to 64 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.