Cranbourne

Population growth drivers in Cranbourne are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of November 2025, Cranbourne's population is estimated at approximately 23,070 people. This figure represents an increase of 1,789 individuals since the Census in 2021, which reported a population of 21,281. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of 22,544 residents as of June 2024, based on examination of the latest ABS ERP data release and an additional 474 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1,397 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Cranbourne's growth rate of 8.4% since the census is within 0.5 percentage points of the national average (8.9%), indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 60.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, driving primary growth in the area.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilizes VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted using a method of weighted aggregation from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. Based on these projections, an above median population growth is anticipated for Cranbourne, with an expected increase of 5,020 persons by 2041. This reflects a gain of 19.5% in total over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Cranbourne among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Between FY2017 and FY2021, Cranbourne had approximately 162 new homes approved annually, totalling around 813 over these five years. As of FY26, there have been 30 approvals recorded so far. On average, each new home brought in about 1.3 new residents per year between FY21 and FY25. The average construction cost value for new homes was $429,000 during this period.

In FY26, commercial development approvals reached $73.8 million. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Cranbourne has less development activity, with 51% below the regional average per person. This scarcity may strengthen demand and prices for existing properties. The new building activity comprised 76% detached houses and 24% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's suburban identity.

There were approximately 185 people per dwelling approval in Cranbourne. By 2041, AreaSearch projects an addition of 4,494 residents. Current development patterns suggest that new housing supply should meet demand, offering favourable conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating further population growth beyond current projections.

Cranbourne has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 45 projects likely impacting the area. Notable ones are Cranbourne Community Hub, ESR Greenlink Industrial Estate, Harli, and Cranbourne Line Upgrade, detailed below for their potential relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch assessment indicates Cranbourne faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

Cranbourne has a skilled workforce with the construction sector being notably represented. Its unemployment rate was 8.7% in June 2025.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 3.3%. As of June 2025, 11,237 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 4.1%, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation in Cranbourne was 60.0%, lower than Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, manufacturing, and construction.

Manufacturing has a particularly strong presence, with an employment share 1.9 times the regional level. However, professional & technical services are under-represented at 4.3% compared to Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 3.3%, while the labour force grew by 4.4%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate of 1.0 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne saw employment grow by 3.5%, labour force expand by 4.0%, and unemployment rise by 0.5 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, published in Sep-22, project national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Cranbourne's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.8% over ten years. These projections are illustrative and do not account for localised population changes.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 indicates that income in Cranbourne is lower than average nationally. The median income is $45,710 and the average income stands at $51,820. This contrasts with Greater Melbourne's figures of a median income of $54,892 and an average income of $73,761. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, current estimates for Cranbourne would be approximately $51,268 (median) and $58,121 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in Cranbourne rank modestly, between the 29th and 34th percentiles. The earnings profile shows that 36.5% of locals (8,420 people) fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 income category. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Cranbourne, with only 81.4% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 31st percentile nationally.

Cranbourne is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The latest Census data shows that in Cranbourne, 80.1% of dwellings are houses, with the remaining 19.8% being semi-detached homes, apartments, or other types. In contrast, Melbourne metro has a higher proportion of houses at 91.5%, with only 8.5% being other dwelling types. Home ownership in Cranbourne stands at 23.8%, compared to mortgaged dwellings at 41.5% and rented ones at 34.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Cranbourne is $1,627, which is lower than the Melbourne metro average of $1,950. Similarly, the median weekly rent in Cranbourne is $342, compared to $386 in Melbourne metro. Nationally, Cranbourne's mortgage repayments are lower at $1,627 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents are also lower at $342 compared to the national figure of $375.

Cranbourne features high concentrations of group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 72.0% of all households, including 33.4% couples with children, 21.0% couples without children, and 15.9% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 28.0%, with lone person households at 24.1% and group households comprising 3.9%. The median household size is 2.7 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 3.2.

Educational outcomes in Cranbourne fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 16.9%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 11.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.0%) and graduate diplomas (1.6%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 38.0% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas (11.4%) and certificates (26.6%). Educational participation is high at 31.6%, including primary (10.9%), secondary (8.0%), and tertiary education (4.0%).

Cranbourne has a network of 8 schools educating approximately 3,742 students, with typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 967) and balanced educational opportunities. There are 6 primary and 1 secondary school serving distinct age groups, plus a specialist school for specific learning needs. Note: refer to parent campus for schools with 'n/a' enrolments.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Cranbourne has 77 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 17 individual routes that collectively facilitate 9,074 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated good with residents located an average of 288 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 1,296 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 117 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Cranbourne is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a considerably higher degree among older age cohorts

Cranbourne faces significant health challenges with common health conditions prevalent across various age groups, but notably higher among older cohorts. Approximately 47% of Cranbourne's total population (~10,937 people) has private health cover, compared to the national average of 55.3%.

The most common medical conditions are mental health issues and asthma, affecting 9.2 and 8.5% of residents respectively. About 68.8% of residents claim to be free from medical ailments, compared to 76.4% in Greater Melbourne. As of 2016, 13.6% of Cranbourne's population is aged 65 and over (3,137 people), higher than the 9.6% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors require more attention due to these challenges.

Cranbourne is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Cranbourne has a high level of cultural diversity, with 36.2% of its population born overseas and 32.9% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Cranbourne, comprising 39.3% of the population. However, there is an overrepresentation in the 'Other' category, which constitutes 4.5% of Cranbourne's population compared to Greater Melbourne's 6.5%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups are English (22.6%), Australian (21.7%), and Other (19.3%). Notably, Samoan (1.3%) is overrepresented in Cranbourne compared to regional averages, while Sri Lankan (0.8%) and Hungarian (0.4%) show lower representation than the region's averages.

Cranbourne's population is younger than the national pattern

Cranbourne's median age is 35 years, which is younger than Greater Melbourne's 37 and the national average of 38 years. The 55-64 age group makes up 11.3% of Cranbourne's population compared to Greater Melbourne, while the 85+ cohort is less prevalent at 1.2%. Between 2021 and present, the 35-44 age group has increased from 14.2% to 15.3%, while the 5-14 cohort has decreased from 13.1% to 12.4%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate that the 45-54 age cohort will increase by 992 people (36%), from 2,722 to 3,715. Conversely, numbers in the 0-4 age range are expected to fall.