Cranbourne

Population growth drivers in Cranbourne are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

The suburb of Cranbourne's population is estimated at around 23,081 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 1,800 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 21,281 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 22,544 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS (June 2024) and an additional 475 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,398 persons per square kilometer. Cranbourne's growth rate of 8.5% since census positions it within 1.4 percentage points of the national average (9.9%). Population growth for the suburb was primarily driven by overseas migration contributing approximately 60.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering the projected demographic shifts, an above median population growth is projected for the suburb, with an expected increase of 5,020 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 19.4% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Cranbourne among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, indicates Cranbourne has seen approximately 162 new homes approved each year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 813 homes. As of FY-26, 56 approvals have been recorded. The average number of new residents arriving per new home over the past five financial years (FY-21 to FY-25) is around 1.3, suggesting a balanced supply and demand market with stable conditions. New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $429,000, slightly above the regional average.

This year has seen $73.8 million in commercial development approvals, indicating strong commercial development momentum compared to previous years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Cranbourne has significantly less development activity, with 51.0% below the regional average per person. This scarcity of new dwellings typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties. The current building activity shows 76.0% detached houses and 24.0% townhouses or apartments, sustaining the area's suburban identity with a concentration of family homes suited to buyers seeking space.

The location has approximately 185 people per dwelling approval, indicating an expanding market. Future projections estimate Cranbourne adding 4,483 residents by 2041, based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Given current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Cranbourne has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Area infrastructure significantly impacts local performance. AreaSearch has identified 45 potential influence projects. Notable ones are ESR Greenlink Industrial Estate, Cranbourne Community Hub, Harli, and Cranbourne Line Upgrade. Below is a detailed list of most relevant projects.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch assessment indicates Cranbourne faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

Cranbourne has a skilled workforce with the construction sector notably represented. The unemployment rate was 8.6% in September 2025, showing room for improvement compared to Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 4.2%.

As of September 2025, 11,287 residents were employed with a workforce participation rate of 67.6%, below Greater Melbourne's 71.0%. A moderate 13.5% of residents worked from home, potentially impacted by Covid-19 lockdowns. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, manufacturing, and construction, with manufacturing particularly strong at 1.9 times the regional level. However, professional & technical services are under-represented at 4.3%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 10.1%.

Many residents commute elsewhere for work. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 4.2% while the unemployment rate rose by 0.6 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Cranbourne's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.8% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

Income data from AreaSearch for financial year 2023 shows median income in Cranbourne suburb was $45,710 and average income was $51,820. Nationally, median income was higher at $57,688 with an average of $75,164. By September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $49,481 (median) and $56,095 (average), based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25%. Census data from 2021 ranks household, family, and personal incomes in Cranbourne between the 29th and 34th percentiles. The predominant income cohort spans 36.5% of locals earning $1,500 - 2,999 per week. Housing affordability pressures are severe with only 81.4% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 31st percentile.

Cranbourne is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Cranbourne, as per the latest Census assessment, 80.1% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 19.8% being semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. In contrast, Melbourne metropolitan area had 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Cranbourne stood at 23.8%, with mortgaged dwellings at 41.5% and rented ones at 34.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,627, lower than Melbourne's average of $2,000. Weekly rent median was $342, compared to Melbourne's $390. Nationally, Cranbourne's mortgage repayments were below the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Cranbourne features high concentrations of group households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 72.0% of all households, including 33.4% couples with children, 21.0% couples without children, and 15.9% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 28.0%, with lone person households at 24.1% and group households comprising 3.9%. The median household size is 2.7 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Educational outcomes in Cranbourne fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 16.9%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 11.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.0%) and graduate diplomas (1.6%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 38.0% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.4%) and certificates (26.6%). Educational participation is high, with 31.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, comprising 10.9% in primary, 8.0% in secondary, and 4.0% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 31.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.9% in primary education, 8.0% in secondary education, and 4.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Cranbourne has 77 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 16 different routes that together facilitate 6,382 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these stops is rated as good, with residents typically living within 288 meters of the nearest stop. As a predominantly residential area, most Cranbourne residents commute outward. Car remains the primary mode of transport for 89% of residents, while 6% use the train. On average, there are 1.5 vehicles per dwelling in Cranbourne, which is higher than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 13.5% of residents work from home, a figure that may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency across all routes averages 911 trips per day, equating to approximately 82 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Cranbourne is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Cranbourne faces significant health challenges, according to AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are notable across both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is low, at approximately 47% of the total population (~10,942 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 56.7% and the national average of 55.7%.

Mental health issues and asthma are the most common medical conditions, impacting 9.2 and 8.5% of residents respectively. However, 68.8% declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to Greater Melbourne's 72.6%. Working-age residents show above average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 14.1% of residents aged 65 and over (3,254 people). Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Cranbourne was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Cranbourne's cultural diversity is notable, with 36.2% of its population born overseas and 32.9% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Cranbourne, accounting for 39.3% of the population. However, the category 'Other' is overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne, comprising 4.5% versus 2.3%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups are English (22.6%), Australian (21.7%), and Other (19.3%). Some ethnic groups show significant differences: Samoan is overrepresented at 1.3% compared to 0.3% regionally, Sri Lankan remains similar at 0.8%, and Hungarian is slightly higher at 0.4% versus 0.3%.

Cranbourne's population is younger than the national pattern

Cranbourne's median age is 35 years, which is slightly younger than Greater Melbourne's 37 and somewhat younger than Australia's national average of 38 years. The age group of 55-64 has strong representation in Cranbourne at 11.5%, compared to Greater Melbourne, while the 85+ cohort is less prevalent at 1.2%. Between 2021 and present, the population aged 35-44 increased from 14.2% to 15.4%, and the 75-84 age group grew from 3.5% to 4.7%. Conversely, the 25-34 age cohort decreased from 16.4% to 15.6%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic changes in Cranbourne. The 45-54 age group is projected to increase by 968 people (35%) from 2,746 to 3,715. Meanwhile, the 0-4 cohort is expected to grow by a modest 3% (44 people).