Cranbourne

Population growth drivers in Cranbourne are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, as of Nov 2025, the Cranbourne statistical area's population is estimated at around 23,075. This reflects an increase of 1,794 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 21,281. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population as 22,544 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS (June 2024), and an additional 474 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,397 persons per square kilometer, above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Cranbourne's 8.4% growth since census positions it within 1.3 percentage points of the national average (9.7%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 60.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering the projected demographic shifts, an above median population growth is projected for the Cranbourne (SA2), with the area expected to increase by 5,020 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 19.4% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Cranbourne among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers indicates approximately 162 new homes were approved annually in Cranbourne over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 813 homes. As of FY-26, 56 approvals have been recorded. This results in an average of 1.3 new residents per year arriving for each new home built between FY-21 and FY-25, suggesting a balanced supply and demand market with stable conditions. The average construction cost value of these new homes is $429,000, slightly above the regional average.

In terms of commercial development, Cranbourne has seen $73.8 million in approvals during this financial year, indicating strong momentum. However, compared to Greater Melbourne, Cranbourne has significantly less development activity, with 51.0% fewer approvals per person. This scarcity typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties. New building activity in Cranbourne consists of 76.0% detached houses and 24.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's suburban identity focused on family homes suited to buyers seeking space.

The location has approximately 185 people per dwelling approval, indicating an expanding market. Future projections estimate Cranbourne will add 4,489 residents by 2041, based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Given current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Cranbourne has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Infrastructure changes significantly influence local performance. AreaSearch has identified 45 potential impact projects in total. Notable ones are ESR Greenlink Industrial Estate, Cranbourne Community Hub, Harli, and Cranbourne Line Upgrade. The following details those expected to have the greatest relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch assessment indicates Cranbourne faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

Cranbourne's workforce is skilled with notable representation in construction. The unemployment rate was 8.6% last year, rising from 4.0% in September 2025 compared to Greater Melbourne's 4.7%.

Workforce participation was 60.0%, below Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Key employment sectors include health care & social assistance, manufacturing, and construction, with manufacturing particularly strong at 1.9 times the regional level. However, professional & technical services were under-represented at 4.3% compared to Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. Many residents commute elsewhere for work.

Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 4.2%, labour force by 4.8%, raising the unemployment rate by 0.6 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne saw employment grow by 3.0% with a 0.3 percentage point rise in unemployment. Statewide, Victoria's employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year to 25-Nov-25, adding 41,950 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%. Nationally, employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Cranbourne's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.8% over ten years.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ending June 2023 shows that median income in Cranbourne suburb is $45,710 and average income is $51,820. This is lower than national averages of $60,900 (median) and $75,164 (average). In Greater Melbourne, median income is $57,688 and average income is $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year ending June 2023, estimated current incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $49,481 (median) and $56,095 (average). According to the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in Cranbourne rank modestly between the 29th and 34th percentiles. The earnings profile shows that 36.5% of locals (8,422 people) earn between $1,500 and $2,999 per year, reflecting regional patterns where 32.8% similarly occupy this income range. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Cranbourne, with only 81.4% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 31st percentile nationally.

Cranbourne is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Cranbourne, as per the latest Census, 80.1% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 19.8% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. This differed from Melbourne metro's ratio of 91.5% houses to 8.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Cranbourne stood at 23.8%, with mortgaged dwellings at 41.5% and rented ones at 34.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,627, lower than Melbourne metro's average of $1,950. Median weekly rent in Cranbourne was $342, compared to Melbourne metro's $386. Nationally, Cranbourne's mortgage repayments were below the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Cranbourne features high concentrations of group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 72.0% of all households, including 33.4% couples with children, 21.0% couples without children, and 15.9% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 28.0%, consisting of 24.1% lone person households and 3.9% group households. The median household size is 2.7 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 3.2.

Educational outcomes in Cranbourne fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 16.9%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common, at 11.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.0%) and graduate diplomas (1.6%). Trade and technical skills are prevalent, with 38.0% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (11.4%) and certificates (26.6%). Educational participation is high, with 31.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes primary education (10.9%), secondary education (8.0%), and tertiary education (4.0%).

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Cranbourne has 77 active public transport stops, offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 16 different routes, collectively facilitating 6,382 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these services is rated as good, with residents typically residing 288 metres from the nearest stop.

The average service frequency across all routes is 911 trips per day, equating to approximately 82 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Cranbourne is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a considerably higher degree among older age cohorts

Cranbourne faces significant health challenges with common health conditions prevalent across all age groups but to a notably higher extent among older adults. Approximately 47% of Cranbourne's total population (~10,939 people) has private health cover, compared to Greater Melbourne's 49.8%. Nationally, the average is 55.7%.

The most common conditions are mental health issues (affecting 9.2% of residents) and asthma (8.5%). Conversely, 68.8% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to Greater Melbourne's 76.4%. Cranbourne has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 13.6% (~3,138 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 9.6%. Health outcomes among seniors require more attention due to the challenges they face.

Cranbourne was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Cranbourne's cultural diversity is notable with 36.2% of its population born overseas and 32.9% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion, accounting for 39.3% of Cranbourne's population. However, the category 'Other' shows an overrepresentation in Cranbourne at 4.5%, compared to 6.5% across Greater Melbourne.

In terms of ancestry, English (22.6%) and Australian (21.7%) are the top represented groups in Cranbourne, both higher than their regional averages of 17.5% and 18.3% respectively. 'Other' ancestry comprises 19.3%, lower than the regional average of 25.5%. Some ethnic groups show notable differences: Samoan (1.3%) is equally represented in Cranbourne as regionally, Sri Lankan is underrepresented at 0.8% compared to 2.2%, and Hungarian shows no difference at 0.4%.

Cranbourne's population is younger than the national pattern

Cranbourne's median age is 35 years, which is slightly younger than Greater Melbourne's 37 and somewhat younger than the national average of 38 years. The 55-64 age group makes up a strong 11.3% of Cranbourne's population compared to Greater Melbourne, while the 85+ cohort is less prevalent at 1.2%. Between 2021 and present, the 35-44 age group has increased from 14.2% to 15.3%, whereas the 5-14 age group has decreased from 13.1% to 12.4%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic changes for Cranbourne. The 45-54 age cohort is projected to increase by 992 people (36%), from 2,722 to 3,715. Conversely, the 0-4 age range is expected to decrease.