Cranbourne

Population growth drivers in Cranbourne are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As per ABS population updates for the broader area and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, the population of Cranbourne is estimated to be around 22,726 as of May 2026. This reflects an increase of 1,445 people (6.8%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 21,281 people. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimated resident population of 22,708 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025 and an additional 474 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population results in a density ratio of 1,376 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Cranbourne's 6.8% growth since census positions it within 2.5 percentage points of the state (9.3%), indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the suburb was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 60.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering the projected demographic shifts, an above median population growth of Australian statistical areas is projected, with the suburb expected to increase by 4,633 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 20.3% in total over the 16 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Cranbourne among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers indicates Cranbourne has seen approximately 162 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 813 homes. By FY-26, 82 approvals have been recorded. On average, 1.3 new residents per year arrive for each new home built between FY-21 and FY-25, suggesting a balanced supply-demand market with stable conditions. The average construction cost value of new homes is $429,000, slightly above the regional average.

In FY-26, $73.8 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, indicating strong commercial development momentum. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Cranbourne has roughly half the rate of new dwelling approvals per person but ranks among the 71st percentile nationally. New building activity comprises 76.0% detached houses and 24.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's suburban identity with a focus on family homes.

The location has approximately 185 people per dwelling approval, suggesting an expanding market. Future projections estimate Cranbourne to add 4,615 residents by 2041 based on AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate. Given current development patterns, new housing supply should meet demand adequately, offering favourable conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Cranbourne has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 45 projects that could potentially impact the region. Notable projects include ESR Greenlink Industrial Estate, Cranbourne Community Hub, Harli, and Cranbourne Line Upgrade. The following list details those considered most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch assessment indicates Cranbourne faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

Cranbourne's workforce is skilled with notable representation in the construction sector. The unemployment rate was 8.9% as of December 2025, with an estimated employment growth of 3.7% over the previous year. As of that date, 11,364 residents were employed, while the unemployment rate was higher than Greater Melbourne's at 4.1%.

Workforce participation in Cranbourne was lower at 67.8%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 69.9%. A moderate 13.5% of residents worked from home based on Census responses. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, manufacturing, and construction sectors. Manufacturing shows strong specialization with an employment share of 1.9 times the regional level.

However, professional & technical services are under-represented at 4.3%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment levels increased by 3.7% while the labour force grew by 4.7%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.9 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment grow by 2.4%, labour force expand by 2.8%, and unemployment rise by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that Cranbourne's employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.8% over ten years, based on industry-specific projections applied to the local employment mix.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ending June 2023 indicates that median income in Cranbourne is $45,710 with an average of $51,820. In comparison, Greater Melbourne has a median income of $57,688 and an average of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% from financial year ending June 2023 to March 2026, estimated incomes would be approximately $50,107 (median) and $56,805 (average). According to the 2021 Census, household income in Cranbourne ranks at the 34th percentile, family income at the 32nd percentile, and personal income at the 29th percentile. The earnings profile shows that 36.5% of locals earn between $1,500 to $2,999 per week (8,294 people), which is similar to the regional pattern where 32.8% fall within this range. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Cranbourne, with only 81.4% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 31st percentile.

Cranbourne is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Cranbourne, as per the latest Census evaluation, 80.1% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 19.8% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. This differs from Melbourne metropolitan area's dwelling structure, which had 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Cranbourne stood at 23.8%, with mortgaged dwellings at 41.5% and rented ones at 34.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Cranbourne was $1,627, lower than Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. The median weekly rent in Cranbourne was $342, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Cranbourne's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Cranbourne features high concentrations of group households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 72.0% of all households, including 33.4% couples with children, 21.0% couples without children, and 15.9% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 28.0%, with lone person households at 24.1% and group households making up 3.9%. The median household size is 2.7 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Educational outcomes in Cranbourne fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 16.9%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 11.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.0%) and graduate diplomas (1.6%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 38.0% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.4%) and certificates (26.6%). Educational participation is high, with 31.6% currently enrolled in formal education, comprising primary (10.9%), secondary (8.0%), and tertiary (4.0%) levels.

Educational participation is notably high, with 31.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.9% in primary education, 8.0% in secondary education, and 4.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Cranbourne has 77 active public transport stops, all serving buses. These stops are covered by 16 different routes, together offering 6,382 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is deemed good, with residents living an average of 288 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to Cranbourne's residential nature. Cars remain the primary transport mode at 89%, while trains account for 6%. The average vehicle ownership per dwelling is 1.5, higher than the regional norm.

According to the 2021 Census, 13.5% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. On average, there are 911 trips daily across all routes, translating to roughly 82 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Cranbourne is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Cranbourne faces significant health challenges, as indicated by AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Notably, common health conditions are prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is very low at approximately 47% of the total population (~10,774 people), compared to 56.7% in Greater Melbourne and the national average of 55.7%.

Mental health issues and asthma are the most common medical conditions, affecting 9.2 and 8.5% of residents respectively, while 68.8% claim to be completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 72.6% in Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents show a higher-than-average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 14.0% of residents aged 65 and over (3,181 people), lower than the 15.0% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Cranbourne was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Cranbourne's population shows high cultural diversity, with 36.2% born overseas and 32.9% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion, comprising 39.3%. The 'Other' religious category is overrepresented in Cranbourne at 4.5%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 2.3%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups are English (22.6%), Australian (21.7%), and Other (19.3%). Some ethnic groups have notable differences: Samoan at 1.3% (vs regional 0.3%), Sri Lankan at 0.8% (vs 0.8%), and Hungarian at 0.4% (vs regional 0.3%).

Cranbourne's population is younger than the national pattern

Cranbourne's median age is 35 years, which is slightly younger than Greater Melbourne's 37 and somewhat younger than the national average of 38 years. The 55-64 age group constitutes 11.3%, compared to Greater Melbourne, while the 25-34 cohort stands at 15.8%. Between 2021 and present, the 35-44 age group has increased from 14.2% to 15.3%. Conversely, the 45-54 cohort has decreased from 12.5% to 11.8%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic changes in Cranbourne. The 45-54 age cohort is projected to increase by 978 people (36%), from 2,681 to 3,660. Meanwhile, the 0-4 cohort grows by a modest 5% (68 people).