Cranbourne

Population growth drivers in Cranbourne are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

The estimated population of Cranbourne is around 23,081 as of February 2026. This reflects an increase of 1,800 people since the Census in 2021, which reported a population of 21,281. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of the resident population at 22,544 following examination of ABS data released in June 2024 and an additional 475 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population results in a density ratio of 1,398 persons per square kilometer, which is above average national levels assessed by AreaSearch. Cranbourne's growth rate of 8.5% since the Census positions it within 1.4 percentage points of the national average of 9.9%. Overseas migration contributed approximately 60.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on these projections, an above median population growth is expected for the suburb of Cranbourne, with a projected increase of 5,022 persons by 2041, reflecting a total gain of 19.4% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Cranbourne among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers in Cranbourne shows an average of 162 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling 813 homes. As of FY-26, 56 approvals have been recorded. The average number of new residents per year per new home between FY-21 and FY-25 is 1.3, indicating a balanced supply and demand market with stable conditions. The average construction cost value for new homes in Cranbourne is $429,000, slightly above the regional average.

This financial year has seen $73.8 million in commercial development approvals, reflecting strong commercial development momentum compared to Greater Melbourne where there is significantly less development activity per person (51.0% below the regional average). The scarcity of new dwellings typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties. In Cranbourne, 76.0% of new building activity comprises detached houses, with townhouses or apartments making up the remaining 24.0%, sustaining the area's suburban identity focused on family homes. The location has approximately 185 people per dwelling approval, suggesting an expanding market.

According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Cranbourne is projected to add 4,485 residents by 2041. Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Cranbourne has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Area infrastructure significantly impacts local performance. AreaSearch has identified 45 projects potentially influencing the region. Notable initiatives include ESR Greenlink Industrial Estate, Cranbourne Community Hub, Harli, and Cranbourne Line Upgrade. Below is a list of projects likely most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch assessment indicates Cranbourne faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

Cranbourne has a skilled workforce with notable representation in the construction sector. The unemployment rate was 8.9% as of December 2025, with an estimated employment growth of 3.7% over the past year. As of that date, 11,364 residents were employed, while the unemployment rate was higher than Greater Melbourne's at 4.1%.

Workforce participation in Cranbourne was lower than Greater Melbourne's at 68.4%. According to Census responses, 13.5% of residents worked from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, manufacturing, and construction, with a strong specialization in manufacturing at 1.9 times the regional level. However, professional & technical services are under-represented at 4.3%.

Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data comparisons of local population to working population. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment levels increased by 3.7%, while labour force grew by 4.7%, leading to an unemployment rate rise of 0.9 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne saw employment grow by 2.4% and unemployment rise by 0.3 percentage points during the same period. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years nationally. Applying these projections to Cranbourne's employment mix suggests local employment should grow by 6.0% over five years and 12.8% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes only.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows that Cranbourne's median income is $45,710 and average income is $51,820. This is lower than the national averages of $57,688 (median) and $75,164 (average). In Greater Melbourne, the median income is $57,688 and the average is $75,164. By September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $49,481 (median) and $56,095 (average), based on an 8.25% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2023. According to the 2021 Census, Cranbourne's household, family, and personal incomes rank modestly, between the 29th and 34th percentiles. The earnings profile indicates that 36.5% of locals (8,424 people) earn between $1,500 and $2,999 annually, which is similar to the regional pattern where 32.8% fall within this range. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Cranbourne, with only 81.4% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 31st percentile.

Cranbourne is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

As per the latest Census evaluation in Cranbourne, dwelling structures consisted of 80.1% houses and 19.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Cranbourne stood at 23.8%, with mortgaged dwellings at 41.5% and rented ones at 34.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,627, lower than Melbourne metro's $2,000. Weekly rent was recorded at $342, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Cranbourne's mortgage repayments were below the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Cranbourne features high concentrations of group households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 72.0% of all households, including 33.4% couples with children, 21.0% couples without children, and 15.9% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 28.0%, with lone person households at 24.1% and group households comprising 3.9%. The median household size is 2.7 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Educational outcomes in Cranbourne fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 16.9%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 11.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.0%) and graduate diplomas (1.6%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 38.0% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.4%) and certificates (26.6%). Educational participation is high, with 31.6% currently enrolled in formal education: 10.9% in primary, 8.0% in secondary, and 4.0% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 31.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.9% in primary education, 8.0% in secondary education, and 4.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Cranbourne has 77 active public transport stops, all bus services. These are covered by 16 routes, offering 6,382 weekly passenger trips. Residents enjoy good transport accessibility, with an average distance of 288 meters to the nearest stop. Most residents commute outwards daily. Cars remain the primary mode at 89%, while trains account for 6%. Vehicle ownership stands at 1.5 per dwelling, above regional averages.

In 2021 Census data, 13.5% of residents worked from home, possibly due to COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 911 trips daily across all routes, or approximately 82 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Cranbourne is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Cranbourne faces significant health challenges according to AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are notably high across both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is very low at approximately 47% of the total population (around 10,942 people), compared to 56.7% in Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are mental health issues affecting 9.2% of residents and asthma impacting 8.5%. However, 68.8% of residents claim to be completely free from medical ailments, compared to 72.6% in Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents have an above-average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 14.4% of residents aged 65 and over (3,323 people). Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Cranbourne was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Cranbourne has a high level of cultural diversity, with 36.2% of its population born overseas and 32.9% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the main religion in Cranbourne, making up 39.3% of people there. However, the most notable overrepresentation is in the 'Other' category, which comprises 4.5% of Cranbourne's population compared to 2.3% across Greater Melbourne.

The top three ancestry groups in Cranbourne are English (22.6%), Australian (21.7%), and Other (19.3%). There are significant differences in the representation of certain ethnic groups: Samoan is notably overrepresented at 1.3% compared to 0.3% regionally, Sri Lankan stands at 0.8%, and Hungarian at 0.4%.

Cranbourne's population is younger than the national pattern

Cranbourne's median age is 35 years, which is slightly younger than Greater Melbourne's 37 and somewhat younger than the national average of 38 years. The 55-64 age group comprises 11.4%, compared to Greater Melbourne, while the 25-34 cohort makes up 15.5%. Between 2021 and present, the 75-84 age group has grown from 3.5% to 4.8%, and the 35-44 cohort increased from 14.2% to 15.3%. Conversely, the 25-34 cohort has decreased from 16.4% to 15.5%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic changes for Cranbourne. The 45-54 age group is projected to increase by 975 people (36%), from 2,746 to 3,722. Meanwhile, the 0-4 cohort grows by a modest 4% (61 people).