Junction Village

Junction Village has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

The population of the Junction Village statistical area (Lv2) was estimated at around 1,794 as of November 2025. This figure represents an increase of 743 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 1,051 people in the same area. The increase is inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of the resident population at 1,565 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS (June 2024), along with an additional 337 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1,507 persons per square kilometer, which is higher than the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The Junction Village's growth rate of 70.7% since the 2021 census exceeded both the national average (9.7%) and the state average, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Interstate migration contributed approximately 77.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, with natural growth and overseas migration also being positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusting them employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on these aggregated SA2-level projections, the Junction Village (SA2) is predicted to grow by 2,143 persons to 2041, reflecting an increase of 99.0% in total over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Junction Village among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, shows Junction Village averaged around 45 new dwelling approvals each year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 229 homes. So far in FY-26, 36 approvals have been recorded. This averages out to approximately 2.6 new residents per year for each dwelling between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating healthy demand which should support property values. New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $372,000.

Additionally, $266,000 in commercial development approvals have been recorded this financial year, suggesting a predominantly residential focus. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Junction Village has 185.0% more new home approvals per person, creating greater choice for buyers, though construction activity has eased recently. This is significantly above the national average, indicating robust developer interest in the area. New building activity shows 90.0% standalone homes and 10.0% medium and high-density housing, sustaining the area's suburban identity with a concentration of family homes suited to buyers seeking space. Interestingly, developers are building more traditional houses than the current mix suggests (66.0% at Census), indicating continued strong demand for family homes despite density pressures.

With around 33 people per dwelling approval, Junction Village shows characteristics of a growth area. Looking ahead, AreaSearch estimates Junction Village is expected to grow by 1,777 residents through to 2041. Development is keeping reasonable pace with projected growth, though buyers may face increasing competition as the population expands.

Junction Village has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Area infrastructure significantly impacts local performance. AreaSearch identified 0 relevant projects. Notable initiatives are Botanic Ridge Secondary College, Cranbourne West Precinct Structure Plan, Peppercorn Hill Estate, and Settlers Run Estate. Below details projects most likely to impact the area.

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The labour market in Junction Village shows considerable strength compared to most other Australian regions

Junction Village has a balanced workforce consisting of both white and blue collar jobs. The construction sector is prominent with an unemployment rate of 2.7%.

Over the past year, ending September 2025, employment grew by 6.7%. This growth rate is higher than Greater Melbourne's 3.0% increase. As of September 2025, Junction Village has 622 residents employed with an unemployment rate of 2.0%, which is below Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%. However, workforce participation lags behind Greater Melbourne at 42.5% compared to 64.1%.

Key employment sectors include construction, health care & social assistance, and manufacturing. Construction employs a significant share of the local workforce, with an employment ratio of 2.3 times the regional level. In contrast, professional & technical services employ only 3.6% of local workers, lower than Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities based on Census data comparing working population and resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 6.7% while the labour force grew by 7.2%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.5 percentage points. State-level data as of 25-Nov-25 shows Victoria's employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year with an unemployment rate of 4.7%. National employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates vary significantly between sectors. Applying these projections to Junction Village's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 12.7% over ten years.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

The suburb of Junction Village's income level is lower than average nationally according to latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. The median income among taxpayers in Junction Village is $27,851 and the average income stands at $31,277. These figures compare to Greater Melbourne's median income of $57,688 and average income of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Junction Village would be approximately $30,149 (median) and $33,857 (average) as of September 2025. According to 2021 Census figures, incomes in Junction Village fall between the 3rd and 6th percentiles nationally. The largest income segment comprises 31.7% earning $400 - 799 weekly, with 568 residents, contrasting with the surrounding region where the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket leads at 32.8%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Junction Village, with only 80.9% of income remaining, ranking at the 6th percentile nationally.

Junction Village displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Junction Village, as per the latest Census, consisted of 65.9% houses and 34.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This is compared to Melbourne metro's 91.5% houses and 8.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Junction Village stood at 45.7%, with the remaining dwellings being either mortgaged (39.5%) or rented (14.8%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,733, significantly lower than Melbourne metro's average of $1,950. The median weekly rent figure in Junction Village was recorded at $326, compared to Melbourne metro's $386. Nationally, Junction Village's mortgage repayments were below the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially lower than the national figure of $375.

Junction Village features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 59.4% of all households, including 19.6% couples with children, 28.0% couples without children, and 9.2% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 40.6%, with lone person households at 38.9% and group households making up 2.2%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 3.2.

Junction Village performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

The area's university qualification rate is 9.0%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 7.0%, followed by graduate diplomas (1.3%) and postgraduate qualifications (0.7%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 37.7% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (9.2%) and certificates (28.5%). A total of 20.6% of the population is actively pursuing formal education, comprising 7.4% in primary, 4.4% in secondary, and 2.0% in tertiary education.

A substantial 20.6% of the population actively pursues formal education. This includes 7.4% in primary education, 4.4% in secondary education, and 2.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis shows six active stops operating within Junction Village, offering mixed bus services. These stops are served by two routes, collectively facilitating 91 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated good, with residents typically located 208 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 13 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 15 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Junction Village is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Junction Village faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older residents. Approximately 39% of its total population (~706 people) has private health cover, compared to 49.8% in Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.7%. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (12.4%) and mental health issues (9.8%), while 50.8% report no medical ailments, lower than the 76.4% in Greater Melbourne.

Junction Village has a higher proportion of residents aged 65 and over at 38.6% (692 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 9.6%. The health outcomes among seniors largely align with those of the general population.

Junction Village ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Junction Village's cultural diversity was found to be below average. As of a certain date, 80.0% of its population were born in Australia, with 90.7% being citizens and 91.7% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 49.3% of people in Junction Village.

Notably, Judaism was overrepresented, making up 0.9% compared to the regional average of 0.1%. In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were English (30.5%), Australian (30.2%), and Scottish (8.5%), all substantially higher than their respective regional averages of 17.5%, 17.7%, and unknown. Additionally, certain ethnic groups showed notable divergences: Dutch was overrepresented at 2.0% compared to the regional average of 1.3%, Hungarian was equally represented at 0.4%, and Spanish was overrepresented at 0.7% compared to the regional average of 0.4%.

Junction Village ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Junction Village's median age is 54 years, which is notably higher than Greater Melbourne's 37 and the Australian median of 38. The age profile indicates that those aged 75-84 are particularly prevalent at 15.2%, while those aged 15-24 are relatively smaller at 7.0% compared to Greater Melbourne. This concentration of those aged 75-84 is significantly higher than the national average of 6%. According to data from the post-2021 Census, the age group of 35 to 44 has increased from 8.3% to 11.9%, and the 5 to 14 cohort has risen from 8.2% to 9.5%. Conversely, the 85+ cohort has decreased from 10.6% to 9.0%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests that Junction Village's age profile will change significantly. The 75 to 84 age group is projected to grow substantially by 342 people (126%), from 272 to 615. Residents aged 65 and above are expected to drive half of the population growth, reflecting the ongoing trend of demographic aging.