Junction Village

Junction Village has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, the suburb of Junction Village's population is estimated at around 2,241 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 1,190 people (113.2%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 1,051 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 1,964 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 337 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,883 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The suburb's 113.2% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the national average (8.9%), along with the state, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by interstate migration that contributed approximately 77.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers including natural growth and overseas migration were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering the projected demographic shifts, exceptional growth is predicted over the period with the suburb expected to expand by 2,131 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 58.8% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Junction Village among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Junction Village has recorded approximately 66 residential properties granted approval annually. Over the past five financial years, between FY-21 and FY-25, around 333 homes were approved, with an additional 41 approved so far in FY-26. The average number of new residents per year arriving per new home over these five years was approximately 1.8. However, this figure decreased to 1 person per dwelling over the past two financial years.

Development projects in Junction Village have an average construction value of $372,000, which is below the regional average, suggesting more affordable housing options for buyers. This year, there have been approximately $9.5 million in commercial approvals, indicating moderate levels of commercial development. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Junction Village has 290% more new home approvals per person, offering greater choice for buyers and reflecting strong developer confidence in the area. New development consists of 93% detached dwellings and 7% attached dwellings, sustaining the area's suburban identity with a concentration of family homes suited to buyers seeking space. With around 10 people per dwelling approval, Junction Village exhibits characteristics of a growth area.

According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, the area is projected to add approximately 1,318 residents by 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Junction Village has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

No changes can influence an area's performance more than alterations to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. Zero projects have been identified by AreaSearch that could potentially impact the area. Key projects include Botanic Ridge Secondary College, Cranbourne West Precinct Structure Plan, Peppercorn Hill Estate, and Settlers Run Estate. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The labour market in Junction Village shows considerable strength compared to most other Australian regions

Junction Village has a diverse workforce with both white and blue collar jobs. The construction sector is prominent, with an unemployment rate of 2.6% and estimated employment growth of 4.4% in the past year (AreaSearch data).

As of June 2025565 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 2.0%, lower than Greater Melbourne's 4.6%. Workforce participation is at 42.5%, significantly below Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Key employment sectors include construction, health care & social assistance, and manufacturing. Construction stands out with a share of employment 2.3 times the regional level.

Conversely, professional & technical services employ only 3.6% of local workers, compared to Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. The area may have limited local job opportunities, indicated by Census data comparing working population to resident population. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 4.4%, labour force by 5.1%, leading to a rise in unemployment of 0.6 percentage points (AreaSearch analysis). In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment growth of 3.5% and labour force growth of 4.0%, with an unemployment increase of 0.5 percentage points. For future insights, Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project overall growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Junction Village's employment mix suggests local job growth could reach 6.1% in five years and 12.7% in ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes only.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

Junction Village's median income among taxpayers was $27,851 and average income stood at $31,277 in financial year 2022. These figures are lower than Greater Melbourne's median of $54,892 and average of $73,761 respectively. By September 2025, estimates suggest the median income would be approximately $31,238 and average income $35,080, based on a 12.16% growth in wages since financial year 2022. According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Junction Village fall between the 3rd and 6th percentiles nationally for households, families, and individuals. The largest income segment comprises 31.7% earning $400 - $799 weekly (710 residents), contrasting with the surrounding region where the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket leads at 32.8%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Junction Village, with only 80.9% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 6th percentile nationally.

Junction Village displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The latest Census evaluation of Junction Village's dwelling structure showed 65.9% houses and 34.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Melbourne metro's 91.5% houses and 8.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Junction Village was at 45.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 39.5% and rented dwellings at 14.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,733, lower than Melbourne metro's average of $1,950. The median weekly rent figure for Junction Village was $326, compared to Melbourne metro's $386. Nationally, Junction Village's mortgage repayments were below the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially lower than the national figure of $375.

Junction Village features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 59.4% of all households, including 19.6% couples with children, 28.0% couples without children, and 9.2% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 40.6%, with lone person households at 38.9% and group households comprising 2.2%. The median household size is 2.2 people, smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 3.2.

Junction Village performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

The area's university qualification rate is 9.0%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for focused educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 7.0%, followed by graduate diplomas (1.3%) and postgraduate qualifications (0.7%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 37.7% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas at 9.2% and certificates at 28.5%.

A substantial 20.6% of the population is actively engaged in formal education, including 7.4% in primary, 4.4% in secondary, and 2.0% in tertiary education. Educational facilities seem to be located outside the immediate catchment area, requiring families to access schools in neighboring regions.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Junction Village has six active public transport stops operating within its boundaries. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, with two individual routes providing a total of 139 weekly passenger trips. The village's transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located approximately 208 meters from the nearest transport stop.

Service frequency averages nineteen trips per day across all routes, equating to roughly twenty-three weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Junction Village is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Junction Village faces notable health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older age groups. Approximately 39% (~882 people) have private health cover, compared to Greater Melbourne's 49.1% and the national average of 55.3%. The most prevalent medical issues are arthritis (12.4%) and mental health concerns (9.8%), while 50.8% report no medical ailments, lower than Greater Melbourne's 76.4%.

The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 38.6% (865 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 9.6%. Health outcomes among seniors largely align with the overall population's health profile.

Junction Village ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Junction Village's cultural diversity was found to be below average. As of a certain date, 80.0% of its population were born in Australia, with 90.7% being citizens and 91.7% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 49.3% of people in Junction Village.

However, Judaism was notably overrepresented at 0.9%, compared to 0.1% across Greater Melbourne. In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were English (30.5%), Australian (30.2%), and Scottish (8.5%). These percentages were substantially higher than the regional averages of 17.5%, 17.7%, and unknown respectively. Additionally, Dutch (2.0%) was notably overrepresented compared to the regional average of 1.3%. Hungarian representation was similar at 0.4%, while Spanish was slightly higher at 0.7% compared to the regional average of 0.4%.

Junction Village ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Junction Village's median age is 54 years, which is significantly older than Greater Melbourne's median age of 37 and the Australian median of 38. The age profile shows that 15.2% of residents are aged between 75 and 84, compared to just 7.0% who are aged between 15 and 24. This concentration of people aged 75 to 84 is well above the national average of 6.0%. According to data from the 2021 Census, the population aged between 35 and 44 has grown from 8.3% to 11.9%, while the 5 to 14 age group increased from 8.2% to 9.5%. Conversely, the number of people aged 85 and over has declined from 10.6% to 9.0%. Demographic modeling suggests that Junction Village's age profile will change significantly by 2041. The number of people aged 85 and over is projected to increase substantially, from 201 in 2021 to 490 in 2041, an expansion of 288 people (143%). Residents aged 65 and over are expected to drive 54% of population growth by 2041, reflecting the demographic aging trends.