Skye (Vic.)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Skye reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of November 2025, the estimated population of the Skye (Vic.) statistical area (Lv2) is around 8,335. This figure reflects an increase of 247 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 8,088. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of the resident population at 8,324 as of June 2024, based on examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS, and an additional 164 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population results in a density ratio of approximately 500 persons per square kilometer. The Skye (Vic.) (SA2) experienced a growth rate of 3.1% between the Census dates, which is within 0.9 percentage points of the SA4 region's growth rate of 4.0%. Natural growth contributed around 52.0% of overall population gains during recent periods in the area.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area as released in 2024, with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, making adjustments using a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Projected future trends indicate an above median population growth for the Skye (Vic.) (SA2), with an expected increase of 1,696 persons to reach a total population of approximately 10,031 by the year 2041. This projected growth reflects an overall increase of 19.3% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Skye, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers indicates Skye has around 18 residential properties granted approval each year. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, approximately 90 homes were approved, with a further 55 approved in FY-26. Despite population decline in recent years, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, resulting in a balanced market with good buyer choice.

The average value of new homes being built is $487,000, suggesting developers are focusing on the premium market with high-end developments. This financial year has seen $9.8 million in commercial approvals, indicating balanced commercial development activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Skye records approximately 69% of building activity per person and ranks among the 49th percentile nationally, offering limited buyer choices and supporting demand for existing homes. Building activity has accelerated recently, though it remains below the national average, suggesting established area characteristics and potential planning limitations.

New building activity comprises 88.0% detached houses and 12.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining Skye's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. With around 336 people per dwelling approval, Skye exhibits characteristics of a low density area. Future projections estimate Skye will add 1,608 residents by 2041. If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Skye has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 13 projects likely to impact the area. Notable projects include Sandhurst Gardens Estate, Aspen Skye, ArenA Skye, and Evolve Skye. The following list details those expected to have the greatest relevance.

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Employment conditions in Skye demonstrate exceptional strength compared to most Australian markets

Skye has a balanced workforce encompassing both white and blue collar jobs. The construction sector is notably prominent with an unemployment rate of 2.8% and an estimated employment growth of 2.7% over the past year.

As of September 2025, there are 4,803 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.9%, which is below Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%. Workforce participation in Skye is higher at 71.7% compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. The key industries employing residents are health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Construction stands out with employment levels at 1.5 times the regional average.

Conversely, professional & technical services employ only 4.1% of local workers, lower than Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. Employment opportunities locally appear limited based on Census data comparing working population to resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 2.7%, while the labour force grew by 2.6%, keeping the unemployment rate relatively stable at 2.8%. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment rise by 3.0%, with a labour force growth of 3.3% and an unemployment increase of 0.3 percentage points to 5.0%. State-level data from Victoria as of 25-Nov shows employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, adding 41,950 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%, slightly higher than the national rate of 4.3%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project a growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Skye's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 12.9% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localized population projections.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 indicates that income in Skye is below the national average. The median income is $54,567 and the average income stands at $61,862. In contrast, Greater Melbourne has a median income of $57,688 and an average income of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Skye would be approximately $59,069 (median) and $66,966 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Skye cluster around the 61st percentile nationally. The income bracket of $1,500 - $2,999 dominates with 44.9% of residents (3,742 people), consistent with broader trends across the broader area showing 32.8% in the same category. High housing costs consume 15.3% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 67th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 4th decile.

Skye is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

As evaluated in the latest Census, 89.3% of dwellings in Skye were houses, with the remaining 10.7% comprising semi-detached properties, apartments, and other dwelling types. In comparison, Melbourne metro had 79.8% houses and 20.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in Skye stood at 23.8%, with mortgaged dwellings at 58.3% and rented dwellings at 18.0%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Skye was $1,733, below Melbourne metro's $1,800. Median weekly rent in Skye was $410, higher than Melbourne metro's $356 but lower than the national average of $375. Nationally, Skye's median monthly mortgage repayment of $1,733 is lower than the Australian average of $1,863.

Skye features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 80.9% of all households, including 42.6% couples with children, 22.3% couples without children, and 15.0% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 19.1%, with lone person households at 16.8% and group households comprising 2.1%. The median household size is 2.9 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.5.

Educational attainment in Skye aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area has university qualification rates of 15.9%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 11.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.8%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Trade and technical skills are prevalent, with 41.2% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (12.2%) and certificates (29.0%).

Educational participation is high, with 30.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.8% in primary education, 8.5% in secondary education, and 3.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 12 active stops operating in Skye, offering mixed bus services. These stops are served by two routes, facilitating 375 weekly passenger trips collectively. Transport accessibility is rated good, with residents located an average of 353 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 53 trips daily across all routes, translating to approximately 31 weekly trips per individual stop.

Skye's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Health data shows Skye residents have relatively positive health outcomes with low prevalence of common conditions among the general population, but higher than national averages for older and at-risk groups.

Private health cover is relatively low, with approximately 51% of the total population (~4,277 people). The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma (9.6%) and mental health issues (9.3%), while 68.6% claim to be completely clear of medical ailments compared to Greater Melbourne's 65.0%. Skye has 13.2% residents aged 65 and over (1,100 people), lower than Greater Melbourne's 17.9%. Health outcomes for seniors require more attention than the broader population.

In terms of cultural diversity, Skye records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Skye's cultural diversity is notable, with 22.1% of its population born overseas and 13.9% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Skye, accounting for 42.8% of the population. However, Judaism is overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne, comprising 0.2% versus 0.3%.

The top three ancestral groups are English (27.8%), Australian (27.2%), and Other (8.2%). Some ethnic groups show significant differences: Hungarian at 0.5% in Skye versus 0.4% regionally, Sri Lankan at 0.7% versus 0.4%, and Dutch at 1.8%.

Skye's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Skye's median age is 36 years, nearly matching Greater Melbourne's average of 37. Both figures are modestly under the Australian median of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Skye has a higher concentration of residents aged 45-54 (14.6%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (11.6%). Between the 2021 Census and present, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 3.1% to 4.5%, while the 65 to 74 cohort increased from 6.0% to 7.3%. Conversely, the 5 to 14 cohort has declined from 14.5% to 12.9%, and the 25 to 34 group dropped from 12.7% to 11.6%. Demographic modeling suggests Skye's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041. The 75 to 84 cohort is projected to grow by 98%, adding 366 residents to reach 742. Residents aged 65 and above will drive 51% of population growth, highlighting demographic aging trends. Meanwhile, the 0 to 4 and 5 to 14 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.