Skye (Vic.)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Skye reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of November 2025, the estimated population of Skye (Vic.) is around 8,449 people. This figure reflects an increase of 361 individuals since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 8,088 people. The increase is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 8,415 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS (June 2024), along with an additional 164 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 507 persons per square kilometer for Skye. The suburb's population growth rate of 4.5% since the 2021 census exceeded both the SA4 region (3.1%) and the SA3 area, indicating it as a growth leader in the region. Natural growth contributed approximately 52.0% of overall population gains during recent periods for Skye.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and for areas not covered by this data, they utilise the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, the suburb is projected to grow by an additional 1,694 persons based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a total increase of 17.7% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Skye, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers in Skye shows around 18 residential properties granted approval each year. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, approximately 94 homes were approved, with a further 47 approved so far in FY26. Despite population decline in recent years, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, resulting in a balanced market with good buyer choice.

The average value of new homes being built is $487,000. In terms of commercial development, Skye has recorded $9.8 million in approvals this financial year, indicating balanced activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Skye shows approximately 75% of the construction activity per person. Nationally, it ranks among the 52nd percentile of areas assessed.

However, building activity has accelerated in recent years, suggesting possible development constraints due to market maturity. Recent construction comprises 88.0% standalone homes and 12.0% medium and high-density housing, maintaining Skye's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes. With around 311 people per dwelling approval, Skye exhibits characteristics of a low density area. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Skye is expected to grow by 1,492 residents through to 2041. If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Skye has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 13 projects likely affecting the region. Notable initiatives include Sandhurst Gardens Estate, Aspen Skye, Evolve Skye, and ArenA Skye, with the following list highlighting the most relevant ones.

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Employment conditions in Skye demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Skye has a diverse workforce with both white and blue collar jobs. The construction sector is notably represented, with an unemployment rate of 3.0% and estimated employment growth of 3.7% over the past year (AreaSearch data).

As of June 2025, there are 4,782 employed residents, with an unemployment rate of 1.6%, below Greater Melbourne's 4.6%. Workforce participation is high at 71.7%. Key employment sectors include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Construction stands out with levels at 1.5 times the regional average.

However, professional & technical jobs are under-represented at 4.1% compared to Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. Local employment opportunities appear limited based on Census data comparison of working population versus resident population. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 3.7% and labour force by 4.5%, raising the unemployment rate by 0.7 percentage points (AreaSearch analysis). Jobs and Skills Australia forecasts national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Skye's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 12.9% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Skye had a median taxpayer income of $54,567 and an average of $61,862 in financial year 2022. This was lower than the national average, contrasting with Greater Melbourne's median income of $54,892 and average income of $73,761 during the same period. Based on a Wage Price Index growth rate of 12.16% since financial year 2022, estimated incomes for September 2025 would be approximately $61,202 (median) and $69,384 (average). According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Skye clustered around the 61st percentile nationally. Income analysis showed that the largest segment consisted of 44.9% earning between $1,500 and $2,999 weekly, with 3,793 residents falling into this category. This was similar to the metropolitan region where this cohort also represented 32.8%. High housing costs consumed 15.3% of income in Skye, but strong earnings placed disposable income at the 67th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 4th decile.

Skye is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

In Skye, as per the latest Census evaluation, 89.3% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 10.7% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments and other types. This differs from Melbourne metro's dwelling structure, which was 79.8% houses and 20.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in Skye stood at 23.8%, with mortgaged dwellings at 58.3% and rented ones at 18.0%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Skye was $1,733, below Melbourne metro's average of $1,800. The median weekly rent in Skye was $410, higher than Melbourne metro's $356 but lower than the national average rent of $375. Nationally, Skye's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863.

Skye features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 80.9% of all households, including 42.6% couples with children, 22.3% couples without children, and 15.0% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 19.1%, with lone person households at 16.8% and group households comprising 2.1%. The median household size is 2.9 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.5.

Educational attainment in Skye aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates at 15.9%, significantly lower than the Greater Melbourne average of 37.0%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 11.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.8%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 41.2% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas (12.2%) and certificates (29.0%).

Educational participation is high, with 30.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.8% in primary education, 8.5% in secondary education, and 3.7% pursuing tertiary education. Skye has 3 schools with a combined enrollment of 487 students, operating under typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 992) offering balanced educational opportunities. The educational mix includes 1 primary school and 2 K-12 schools. Limited local school capacity (5.8 places per 100 residents vs 14.8 regionally) means many families travel to nearby areas for schooling. Note: where schools show 'n/a' for enrolments, please refer to the parent campus.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 12 active stops operating in Skye, served by buses. There are 2 routes providing a total of 581 weekly passenger trips. Residents' average distance to the nearest stop is 353 meters.

Service frequency averages 83 trips per day across all routes, equating to about 48 weekly trips per stop.

Skye's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Skye residents show relatively positive health outcomes, with low prevalence rates for common conditions among the general population.

However, these rates are higher than the national average among older and at-risk cohorts. Private health cover stands at approximately 51% of Skye's total population (~4,336 people), slightly lower than the average SA2 area. The most prevalent medical conditions in Skye are asthma (9.6%) and mental health issues (9.3%), with 68.6% of residents reporting no medical ailments compared to Greater Melbourne's 65%. Skye has a lower proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 13.2% (1,115 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 17.9%. Health outcomes among seniors require more attention than the broader population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Skye was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Skye's cultural diversity is above average, with 22.1% of its population born overseas and 13.9% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Skye, comprising 42.8% of people. However, Judaism is overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne, making up 0.2% versus 0.3%.

The top three parental ancestry groups are English (27.8%), Australian (27.2%), and Other (8.2%). Notably, Hungarian (0.5%) and Sri Lankan (0.7%) ethnicities are overrepresented compared to regional averages of 0.4% each, while Dutch representation is equal at 1.8%.

Skye's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Skye's median age is 36 years, nearly matching Greater Melbourne's average of 37. This is modestly below Australia's median age of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Skye has a higher concentration of residents aged 45-54 (14.6%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (11.6%). Between the 2021 Census and now, the population aged 75-84 has grown from 3.1% to 4.5%, while the 65-74 cohort increased from 6.0% to 7.3%. Conversely, the 5-14 cohort has declined from 14.5% to 12.9%, and the 25-34 group dropped from 12.7% to 11.6%. Demographic modeling suggests Skye's age profile will significantly evolve by 2041. The 75-84 cohort is projected to grow by 95%, adding 361 residents to reach 742. Residents aged 65 and above will drive 52% of population growth, highlighting demographic aging trends. Meanwhile, the 0-4 and 5-14 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.