Frankston North

Frankston North is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

Frankston North's population was approximately 19,830 as of November 2025. This figure represents an increase of 377 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 19,453. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 19,841 in June 2024 and an additional 77 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1,497 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Frankston North's growth rate of 1.9% since the census is within 1.2 percentage points of the SA4 region (3.1%), indicating strong growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 72.4% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends indicate an increase just below the national median, with an expected expansion of 1,638 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a total gain of 8.3% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Frankston North, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Frankston North averaged approximately 32 new dwelling approvals annually over recent years. Between FY-21 and FY-25, a total of 160 homes were approved, with an additional 17 approved in FY-26 to date. Despite a decrease in population during this period, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, resulting in a balanced market with good buyer choice.

The average expected construction cost for new properties was $259,000, below the regional average, suggesting more affordable housing options. In FY-26, commercial approvals totaled $163.6 million, indicating robust local business investment. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Frankston North has roughly half the rate of new dwelling approvals per person, placing it among the 29th percentile nationally in terms of buyer choices for new homes. This lower activity reflects a mature market and potential development constraints. Current building activity consists of 61.0% detached dwellings and 39.0% townhouses or apartments, expanding medium-density options to cater to varying price brackets.

Frankston North's current housing mix is predominantly houses (89.0%), but this is shifting due to reduced availability of development sites and changing lifestyle demands. With approximately 606 people per dwelling approval, the market is highly mature. Future growth projections estimate an increase of around 1,649 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may struggle to keep pace with population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Frankston North has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 49thth percentile nationally

A total of 16 projects have been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area's performance. Key among these are the Frankston to Baxter Rail Upgrade, Compass Business Park development, Karingal Hub Shopping Centre redevelopment, and Frankston Hospital redevelopment.

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Employment drivers in Frankston North are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

Frankston North has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs. The construction sector is prominent with an unemployment rate of 9.4% and estimated employment growth of 2.7% in the past year as of September 2025.

There are 8,885 residents employed with an unemployment rate of 4.7%, which is equal to Greater Melbourne's rate but shows room for improvement due to lower workforce participation at 54.6%. Key employment industries include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Construction has a notable concentration with employment levels at 1.4 times the regional average. However, professional & technical services have limited presence at 4.7% compared to the regional average of 10.1%.

The area offers limited local employment opportunities as indicated by the Census working population vs resident population count. In the year to September 2025, employment levels increased by 2.7% and labour force grew by 2.3%, reducing unemployment by 0.3 percentage points. This contrasts with Greater Melbourne where employment rose by 3.0% but unemployment also rose by 0.3 percentage points. State-level data to 25-Nov shows Victoria's employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, adding 41,950 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Frankston North's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.2% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localised population projections.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

Frankston North SA2's median income among taxpayers in financial year 2022 was $50,434. The average income stood at $60,098 during this period. These figures are below the national averages of $54,892 and $73,761 respectively for Greater Melbourne. By September 2025, estimates suggest the median income would be approximately $56,567 and average income $67,406, based on a Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022. According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Frankston North rank between the 21st and 21st percentiles nationally for households, families, and individuals. The predominant income cohort spans 32.6% of locals (6,464 people) with incomes ranging from $1,500 to $2,999, a pattern similar to the surrounding region where 32.8% fall within this range. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Frankston North, with only 80.7% of income remaining, ranking at the 18th percentile nationally.

Frankston North is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Frankston North's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 88.7% houses and 11.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), contrasting with Melbourne metro's 79.8% houses and 20.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in Frankston North aligned with Melbourne metro at 28.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 34.0% and rented ones at 37.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,597, lower than Melbourne metro's average of $1,800. Median weekly rent in Frankston North was $341, compared to Melbourne metro's $356. Nationally, Frankston North's mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,597 versus Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were less at $341 compared to the national figure of $375.

Frankston North features high concentrations of group households and lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 64.5% of all households, including 22.2% couples with children, 22.8% couples without children, and 18.1% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 35.5%, consisting of 31.1% lone person households and 4.4% group households. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.5.

Educational outcomes in Frankston North fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 17.2%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 12.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.8%) and graduate diplomas (2.3%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 41.7% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 12.4% and certificates at 29.3%. Educational participation is high, with 29.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 10.3% in primary, 7.1% in secondary, and 3.7% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Frankston North has 122 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 11 different routes that together facilitate 3,817 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents on average being located just 185 meters from the nearest stop.

On a daily basis, there are an average of 545 trips across all routes, which translates to approximately 31 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Frankston North is well below average with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Frankston North faces significant health challenges, as indicated by health data. Multiple health conditions affect both younger and older age groups in the area.

The rate of private health cover is relatively low at approximately 50% (~9815 people), compared to the national average of 55.3%. Mental health issues and asthma are the most common medical conditions, impacting 12.3% and 9.5% of residents respectively. Conversely, 59.6% of residents report having no medical ailments, compared to 65.0% in Greater Melbourne. The area has 18.4% of residents aged 65 and over (3656 people), with health outcomes among seniors presenting challenges broadly aligned with the general population's health profile.

In terms of cultural diversity, Frankston North records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Frankston North had a higher than average cultural diversity, with 12.3% speaking a language other than English at home and 22.8% born overseas. Christianity was the predominant religion in Frankston North, comprising 39.9%. Judaism was overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne, making up 0.2% versus 0.3%.

The top three ancestry groups were English (29.6%), Australian (25.9%), and Irish (8.0%). Notably, Hungarian (0.5%) and Russian (0.6%) ethnicities were overrepresented compared to regional averages of 0.4% and 0.5%, respectively. Maori ethnicity was also notably higher at 1.2%.

Frankston North's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

The median age in Frankston North is 38 years, close to Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and equivalent to Australia's median of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Frankston North has a higher percentage of residents aged 75-84 (7.0%) but fewer residents aged 15-24 (10.9%). Between the 2021 Census and now, the population aged 35-44 has grown from 13.5% to 15.1%, while the 25-34 age group has declined from 16.4% to 15.4%. By 2041, Frankston North's age composition is expected to change significantly. The 85+ age group is projected to grow by 106% (from 471 to 971 people), with those aged 65 and above accounting for 61% of the population growth. Conversely, declines are projected for the 35-44 and 0-4 age groups.