Frankston

Frankston has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Frankston's population is around 24,976 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 1,390 people (5.9%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 23,586 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 24,792 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 406 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 2,149 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Frankston's 5.9% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA4 region (4.1%) and the SA3 area, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which contributed approximately 73.8% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking at population projections moving forward, an above-median population growth of statistical areas across the nation is projected, with the area expected to increase by 3,609 persons by 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a gain of 13.7% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Frankston recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Frankston has averaged around 103 new dwelling approvals each year, with 515 homes approved over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 125 so far in FY-26. Given an average of 1.3 new residents per year per dwelling constructed over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), supply and demand appear well-balanced, creating stable market conditions, with recent figures showing this has accelerated to 8.4 people per dwelling over the past 2 financial years, suggesting increasing demand and tightening supply. Development projects average $345,000 in construction value. Additionally, $73.5 million in commercial approvals have been registered this financial year, suggesting robust local business investment.

Compared to Greater Melbourne, Frankston shows moderately higher new home approvals (36.0% above regional average per person over the 5 year period), preserving reasonable buyer options while sustaining existing property demand, though development activity has moderated in recent periods. Recent construction comprises 25.0% standalone homes and 75.0% medium and high-density housing. This focus on higher-density living creates more affordable entry points and suits downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This represents a notable shift from the area's existing housing (currently 66.0% houses), indicating decreasing availability of developable sites and reflecting changing lifestyles and the need for more diverse, affordable housing options. At around 431 people per approval, Frankston indicates a mature market.

Looking ahead, Frankston is expected to grow by 3,425 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Development is keeping a reasonable pace with projected growth, though buyers may face increasing competition as the population expands.

Frankston has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total, 21 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include the Frankston Revitalisation Project, Bayside Mixed-Use Precinct Development, Harbour Frankston, and 35-41 Hastings Road Apartment Development, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis reveals Frankston recording weaker employment conditions than most comparable areas nationwide

Frankston possesses a skilled workforce, with essential services sectors well represented, an unemployment rate of 7.5%, and 2.8% in estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 12,471 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 2.7% above Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%, and workforce participation lags significantly (64.6% compared to Greater Melbourne's 71.3%). Based on Census responses, a moderate 22.5% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Employment among residents is concentrated in health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. The area shows particularly strong specialization in health care & social assistance, with an employment share of 1.3 times the regional level. Conversely, professional & technical services show lower representation at 5.6% versus the regional average of 10.1%. The ratio of 0.8 workers for each resident, as at the Census, indicates a level of local employment opportunities above the norm.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, over the 12 months to December 2025, employment increased by 2.8% while the labour force increased by 2.2%, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 0.6 percentage points. By comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 2.4%, labour force growth of 2.8%, with unemployment rising 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Frankston. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Frankston's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.9% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

The Frankston SA2 shows a median taxpayer income of $53,164 and an average of $63,915 according to the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for FY-23. This is lower than average on a national basis, contrasting with Greater Melbourne's median income of $57,688 and average income of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $57,550 (median) and $69,188 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals household, family and personal incomes all rank modestly in Frankston, between the 27th and 41st percentiles. The data shows the $1,500 - 2,999 earnings band captures 31.3% of the community (7,817 individuals), consistent with broader trends across regional levels showing 32.8% in the same category. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 80.3% of income remaining, ranking at the 22nd percentile.

Frankston displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Dwelling structure within Frankston, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 65.9% houses and 34.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Frankston lagged that of Melbourne metro, at 24.7%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (31.9%) or rented (43.4%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well below the Melbourne metro average at $1,733, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $335, compared to Melbourne metro's $2,000 and $390. Nationally, Frankston's mortgage repayments are lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially below the national figure of $375.

Frankston features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 59.7% of all households, comprising 21.6% couples with children, 22.0% couples without children, and 14.9% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 40.3%, with lone person households at 36.2% and group households comprising 4.0% of the total. The median household size of 2.2 people is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

The educational profile of Frankston exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (24.1%) substantially below the Greater Melbourne average of 37.0%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 16.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.8%) and graduate diplomas (3.2%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 39.5% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (13.5%) and certificates (26.0%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 29.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.9% in primary education, 7.1% in secondary education, and 5.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 138 active transport stops operating within Frankston, comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 28 individual routes, collectively providing 8,925 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 196 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward, and the car remains the dominant mode at 88%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.1 per dwelling, which is below the regional average. Some 22.5% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 1,275 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 64 weekly trips per individual stop. The accompanying map shows the 100 nearest stops to the location centrepoint.

Health performance in Frankston is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data reveals substantial challenges facing Frankston, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The prevalence of common health conditions is notable across both younger and older age cohorts, and the rate of private health cover is relatively low at approximately 50% of the total population (~12,612 people). This compares to 56.7% across Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are mental health issues and asthma, impacting 12.2% and 9.4% of residents, respectively, while 62.7% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. The working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 19.5% of residents aged 65 and over (4,865 people), which is higher than the 15.1% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Frankston was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Frankston was found to be above average in terms of cultural diversity, with 13.5% of its population speaking a language other than English at home and 24.8% born overseas. The main religion in Frankston is Christianity, which makes up 40.0% of the population. However, the most apparent overrepresentation was in Judaism, which comprises 0.3% of the population, compared to 1.0% across Greater Melbourne.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Frankston are English, comprising 29.3% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 20.1%, Australian, comprising 24.8% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 18.4%, and Irish, comprising 8.4% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Russian is notably overrepresented at 0.6% of Frankston (vs 0.4% regionally), Dutch at 1.9% (vs 1.2%) and Hungarian at 0.4% (vs 0.3%).

Frankston's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The 39-year median age in Frankston is somewhat higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and similarly very close to the 38-year national average. Compared to the Greater Melbourne average, the 65 - 74 cohort is notably over-represented (10.5% locally), while 25 - 34 year-olds are under-represented (13.7%). Post-2021 Census data shows the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 5.2% to 6.8% of the population, while the 35 to 44 cohort increased from 13.8% to 15.3%. Conversely, the 25 to 34 cohort has declined from 15.6% to 13.7%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes for Frankston. Leading the demographic shift, the 75 to 84 group will grow by 58% (976 people), reaching 2,665 from 1,688. Demographic aging continues as residents 65 and older represent 57% of anticipated growth. On the other hand, the 35 to 44 and 5 to 14 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.