Cranbourne South

Cranbourne South lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of Feb 2026, the estimated population of Cranbourne South is around 4,077. This reflects an increase of 836 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,241. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 3,459 in June 2024, based on examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS, and an additional 179 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 203 persons per square kilometer. Cranbourne South's growth rate of 25.8% since the 2021 census exceeded both national (9.9%) and state averages, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Interstate migration contributed approximately 63.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering these projections, exceptional growth is predicted over the period, with the suburb expected to increase by 1,663 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 25.6% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Cranbourne South among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers from statistical area data, Cranbourne South has seen around 109 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 545 homes. As of FY-26 to date, 14 approvals have been recorded. On average, 2.4 people per year moved to the area for each new home constructed between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating solid demand that supports property values. New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost of $400,000.

In this financial year, $7.0 million in commercial approvals have been registered, suggesting limited commercial development focus compared to residential. Relative to Greater Melbourne, Cranbourne South records 168.0% more development activity per person, offering buyers ample choice, although development activity has moderated recently. This level is significantly higher than the national average, indicating strong developer confidence in the location. New development consists of 59.0% detached dwellings and 41.0% attached dwellings, with a growing mix of townhouses and apartments providing options across different price points. This shift reflects reduced availability of development sites and addresses changing lifestyle demands and affordability requirements, marking a considerable change from the current housing mix which is currently 100.0% houses. With around 140 people per approval, Cranbourne South reflects a developing area.

Looking ahead, Cranbourne South is expected to grow by 1,045 residents through to 2041, based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Given current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Cranbourne South has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 15 projects likely impacting the area. Key projects include Cranbourne West Precinct Structure Plan, Botanic Ridge Village Shopping Centre, Botanic Ridge Estate, and Cranbourne West Secondary College. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Cranbourne South ranks among the top 25% of areas assessed nationally for overall employment performance

Cranbourne South has a skilled workforce with notable representation in the construction sector. Its unemployment rate was 2.6% as of December 2025, lower than Greater Melbourne's 4.8%. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 4.2%.

Workforce participation is high at 98.4%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 71.3%. 20.4% of residents work from home, according to Census responses. Key industries include construction, health care & social assistance, and manufacturing. Construction employment is particularly high, with a share 1.9 times the regional level.

However, professional & technical services employ only 5.1% of local workers, below Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. Many residents may commute elsewhere for work, as indicated by Census data on working population to local population ratios. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment levels in Cranbourne South increased by 4.2%, while the labour force grew by 4.8%, raising the unemployment rate by 0.6 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment rise by 2.4%, the labour force grow by 2.8%, and unemployment increase by 0.3 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, released in May-25, project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Cranbourne South's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.1% over ten years. These projections are simple weighted extrapolations for illustrative purposes, not adjusted for localised population changes.

The area exhibits notably strong income performance, ranking higher than 70% of areas assessed nationally through AreaSearch analysis

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2023, Cranbourne South had a median income among taxpayers of $59,263. The average income stood at $66,909 in this suburb. Nationally, the median and average incomes were $57,688 and $75,164 respectively during the same period. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Cranbourne South would be approximately $64,152 (median) and $72,429 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals that household, family and personal incomes in Cranbourne South rank highly nationally, between the 77th and 82nd percentiles. Distribution data shows that 42.9% of locals (1,749 people) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income category. This aligns with the broader area where this cohort represents 32.8%. High housing costs consume 16.0% of income in Cranbourne South. Despite this, disposable income ranks at the 81st percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Cranbourne South is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Cranbourne South's dwellings were 99.7% houses and 0.3% other dwellings in the latest Census, compared to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership was at 26.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 62.7% and rented ones at 10.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,167, higher than Melbourne metro's $2,000. Median weekly rent was $470, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $1,863 and rents substantially above the national figure of $375.

Cranbourne South features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 84.3% of all households, including 43.8% couples with children, 30.8% couples without children, and 8.5% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 15.7%, with lone person households at 13.1% and group households making up 2.7%. The median household size is 2.9 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Cranbourne South performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

The area's university qualification rate is 23.3%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 16.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.1%) and graduate diplomas (2.7%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 40.1% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (12.2%) and certificates (27.9%). Educational participation is high, with 27.8% currently enrolled in formal education: 10.3% in primary, 5.9% in secondary, and 4.0% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 27.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.3% in primary education, 5.9% in secondary education, and 4.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Cranbourne South has eight active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by two routes that together facilitate 485 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility in the area is limited, with residents typically located 906 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to its primarily residential nature, with cars being the dominant mode of transport at 95%. The average vehicle ownership per dwelling is 2.2, which exceeds the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, 20.4% of residents work from home, a figure that may reflect COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency across all routes averages 69 trips per day, equating to approximately 60 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Cranbourne South is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population and nearer the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Cranbourne South shows superior health outcomes based on AreaSearch's evaluation of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The area has a low prevalence of common health conditions among its general population, nearing national averages for older, at-risk cohorts.

Private health cover is prevalent at approximately 53% of the total population (~2,172 people), slightly higher than the average SA2 area's 50%. This compares to Greater Melbourne's 56.7%. The most common medical conditions are asthma and mental health issues, affecting 8.0% and 7.2% of residents respectively. Notably, 72.2% of residents report being completely free from medical ailments, comparable to Greater Melbourne's 72.6%. Under-65 residents exhibit better-than-average health outcomes. The area has a lower proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 10.2% (415 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 15.1%. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors are above average but rank lower nationally than those of the broader population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Cranbourne South was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Cranbourne South's population was found to be more culturally diverse than most local areas, with 24.3% born overseas and 20.5% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Cranbourne South, accounting for 42.8% of its population. However, the category 'Other' showed an overrepresentation compared to Greater Melbourne, comprising 2.5% versus 2.3%.

In terms of ancestry, the top groups were English (27.4%), Australian (27.1%), and Other (10.8%). Notably, Sri Lankan, Dutch, and Serbian ethnicities had higher representations than regional averages: Sri Lankan at 1.0% versus 0.8%, Dutch at 1.8% versus 1.2%, and Serbian at 0.5% versus 0.4%.

Cranbourne South's population is younger than the national pattern

Cranbourne South's median age is 34, which is lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and Australia's average of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Cranbourne South has a higher proportion of residents aged 35-44 (19.1%) but fewer residents aged 15-24 (10.7%). Between the 2021 Census and present, the area's median age decreased by 1.2 years to 34 from 35. The 35-44 age group grew from 14.1% to 19.1%, while the 5-14 cohort increased from 12.5% to 14.9%. Conversely, the 65-74 cohort declined from 8.7% to 5.8% and the 55-64 group dropped from 11.8% to 9.1%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic changes in Cranbourne South, with the 45-54 age group projected to grow by 52%, adding 243 residents to reach a total of 712.