Cranbourne South

Cranbourne South lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As per AreaSearch's analysis using ABS population updates and validated new addresses, the estimated population of Cranbourne South as of Feb 2026 is around 4,077. This figure represents a 25.8% increase from the 2021 Census count of 3,241 people. The growth was inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate of 3,459 in Jun 2024 and an additional 179 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 203 persons per square kilometer. Cranbourne South's growth rate exceeded both national (9.9%) and state averages since the 2021 census, positioning it as a growth leader in the region. Interstate migration contributed approximately 63.0% to overall population gains during recent periods, with all drivers including natural growth and overseas migration being positive factors.

AreaSearch's projections for Cranbourne South are based on ABS/Geoscience Australia data released in 2024 using 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 with adjustments made via a weighted aggregation method to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. According to these projections, Cranbourne South is expected to experience exceptional growth, placing it in the top 10 percent of national areas. By 2041, the suburb's population is projected to increase by 4,077 persons, reflecting a total gain of 99.8% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Cranbourne South among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers indicates Cranbourne South has seen approximately 107 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 538 homes. As of FY26, 11 approvals have been recorded. On average, around 2.5 people move to the area per new home constructed each year between FY21 and FY25, suggesting solid demand supporting property values. New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $401,000.

This financial year, $7.0 million in commercial approvals have been registered, indicating limited commercial development focus. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Cranbourne South records 143.0% more development activity per person, offering ample choice for buyers despite recent moderation in development activity. This level is substantially higher than the national average, suggesting strong developer confidence in the location. New development consists of 59.0% detached dwellings and 41.0% attached dwellings, with a growing mix of townhouses and apartments providing options across different price points. This reflects a considerable change from the current housing mix, which is currently 100.0% houses, due to reduced availability of development sites and shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. With around 150 people per approval, Cranbourne South indicates a developing area.

Looking ahead, AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate projects Cranbourne South to grow by 4,067 residents through to 2041. Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Cranbourne South has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 15 projects likely to impact the area. Key projects include Cranbourne West Precinct Structure Plan, Botanic Ridge Village Shopping Centre, Botanic Ridge Estate, and Cranbourne West Secondary College. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis of employment trends sees Cranbourne South performing better than 85% of local markets assessed across Australia

Cranbourne South has a skilled workforce with notable representation in the construction sector. Its unemployment rate is 2.3%, lower than Greater Melbourne's 4.7%. In the year to September 2025, employment grew by 5.3%, while the unemployment rate increased slightly to 2.6%.

As of this date, 2,537 residents are employed, with a workforce participation rate of 90.3%, significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's 71.0%. A moderate 20.4% of residents work from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Key industries include construction, health care & social assistance, and manufacturing. Construction employment is particularly high, at 1.9 times the regional level.

However, professional & technical services employ only 5.1% of local workers, below Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. Many residents commute elsewhere for work, indicating limited local employment opportunities. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 5.3%, while the labour force grew by 5.7%, causing a slight rise in unemployment to 2.6%. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment grow by 3.0% over the same period. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project total employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Cranbourne South's employment mix suggests local employment could increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.1% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

The area exhibits notably strong income performance, ranking higher than 70% of areas assessed nationally through AreaSearch analysis

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year ending June 2023, Cranbourne South had a median income among taxpayers of $59,263 and an average income of $66,909. These figures are in line with national averages, which were $57,688 and $75,164 respectively across Greater Melbourne for the same period. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% from financial year ending June 2023 to September 2025, current estimates would be approximately $64,152 (median) and $72,429 (average). Census data indicates that household, family, and personal incomes in Cranbourne South rank highly nationally, between the 77th and 82nd percentiles. Income distribution shows that 42.9% of locals (1,749 people) fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 category, which is similar to the broader area where this cohort represents 32.8%. High housing costs consume 16.0% of income in Cranbourne South, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 81st percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Cranbourne South is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

In Cranbourne South, as per the latest Census, 99.7% of dwellings were houses with 0.3% being other types such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and others. This is in contrast to Melbourne's metropolitan area which had 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Cranbourne South was at 26.4%, with mortgaged properties making up 62.7% and rented ones 10.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,167, higher than Melbourne's average of $2,000. The median weekly rent was recorded at $475, compared to Melbourne's $390. Nationally, Cranbourne South's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Cranbourne South features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 84.3% of all households, including 43.8% couples with children, 30.8% couples without children, and 8.5% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 15.7%, with lone person households at 13.1% and group households comprising 2.7% of the total. The median household size is 2.9 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Cranbourne South performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

The area's university qualification rate is 23.3%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 16.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.1%) and graduate diplomas (2.7%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 40.1% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 12.2% and certificates at 27.9%. Educational participation is high, with 27.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 10.3% in primary education, 5.9% in secondary education, and 4.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Cranbourne South has eight active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by two routes that together facilitate 485 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is limited, with residents typically residing 906 meters from the nearest stop. The area is predominantly residential, and most commuters travel outward; cars remain the primary mode of transport, used by 95% of residents. On average, there are 2.2 vehicles per dwelling, exceeding the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, 20.4% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

The service frequency averages 69 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 60 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Cranbourne South is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population and nearer the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Cranbourne South shows higher-than-average health outcomes based on AreaSearch's assessment using mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The prevalence of common health conditions is low among the general population but nears the national average for older, at-risk cohorts.

Private health cover rate is approximately 53% of the total population (~2,172 people), slightly higher than the average SA2 area's 49%. This compares to Greater Melbourne's 56.7%. The most common conditions are asthma and mental health issues, affecting 8.0% and 7.2% of residents respectively, while 72.2% report no medical ailments, similar to Greater Melbourne's 72.6%. Health outcomes for those under 65 are better than average. The area has 15.0% of residents aged 65 and over (611 people), with seniors showing above-average health outcomes but ranking lower nationally compared to the broader population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Cranbourne South was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Cranbourne South had a higher cultural diversity than most local areas, with 24.3% of its population born overseas and 20.5% speaking languages other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Cranbourne South, comprising 42.8% of the population. However, the category 'Other' showed a higher representation in Cranbourne South, making up 2.5% compared to Greater Melbourne's 2.3%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were English at 27.4%, Australian at 27.1%, and Other at 10.8%. Some ethnic groups had notable differences: Sri Lankan was overrepresented at 1.0% (vs regional 0.8%), Dutch at 1.8% (vs 1.2%), and Serbian at 0.5% (vs 0.4%).

Cranbourne South's population is younger than the national pattern

Cranbourne South's median age is 36 years, nearly matching Greater Melbourne's average of 37. This is modestly below Australia's median age of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Cranbourne South has a higher proportion of residents aged 55-64 (12.8%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (14.1%). Between the 2021 Census and now, the population aged 35-44 has grown from 14.1% to 16.7%, while those aged 45-54 increased from 11.3% to 12.8%. Conversely, the proportion of residents aged 25-34 has declined from 18.6% to 14.1%, and the 0-4 age group has dropped from 7.5% to 5.6%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Cranbourne South's age profile will significantly evolve. The strongest projected growth is in the 45-54 cohort, with a 151% increase adding 786 residents to reach 1,308.