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This analysis uses Suburbs and Localities (SAL) boundaries, which can materially differ from Statistical Areas (SA2) even when sharing the same name.
SAL boundaries are defined by Australia Post and the Australian Bureau of Statistics to represent commonly-known suburb names used in postal addresses.
Statistical Areas (SA2) are designed for census data collection and may combine multiple suburbs or use different geographic boundaries. For comprehensive analysis, consider reviewing both boundary types if available.
est. as @ -- *
2021 Census | -- people
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Cranbourne South has an estimated 7,048 residents, up from 3,241 at the 2021 Census — a change of 3,807 people, or 117.5%. Growth has averaged 18.9% a year over five years, faster than 99% of areas nationally. 273 new addresses have been validated here since Census night. Interstate and internal migration accounts for 63.0% of that increase. That puts 352 residents on each square kilometre. Population is estimated from ABS Estimated Resident Population releases and GNAF address data, re-based from the 2021 Census and updated annually.
Detail
Demographic assessments combining broader ABS updates and post-Census address validations by AreaSearch place the population of the suburb of Cranbourne South at approximately 7,048 as of Aug 2026. This represents an expansion of 3,807 people (117.5%) compared to the 3,241 people recorded at the 2021 Census. Such figures are derived from an estimated resident population of 6,930 based on ABS ERP data from June 2025 alongside 273 validated new addresses confirmed after the Census. With a population density of 352 persons per square kilometer, the suburb of Cranbourne South offers generous space per resident with ample capacity for ongoing growth.
Outpacing both state expansion (9.5%) and national benchmarks, the area's 117.5% increase establishes it as a regional growth frontrunner. While natural increases and overseas arrivals contributed positively, interstate migration served as the primary growth engine, driving roughly 63.0% of recent population additions. Population modeling by AreaSearch incorporates 2024 ABS/Geoscience Australia projections pegged to a 2022 baseline, supplemented where necessary by 2023 Victorian State Government Regional/LGA figures adjusted to SA2 levels via weighted aggregation. Age-specific rates from these aggregations are utilized for demographic forecasts covering 2032 to 2041. Future expectations place the suburb of Cranbourne South in the nation's top quartile for population expansion, with aggregated SA2 projections indicating an influx of 1,475 persons through 2041, representing a cumulative increase of 19.2% across the 16 years.
Frequently Asked Questions - Population
505 new dwellings have been approved in Cranbourne South over the past five years, an average of 101 a year. That places the area in the 95th percentile for residential development activity nationally, about 14 approvals per 1,000 residents a year. Of the 41 dwellings approved in the latest reporting year, 66% were detached houses and the rest townhouses or apartments. Approvals are currently running at an annualised 118, broadly in line with that longer-run average. Figures come from ABS building approvals aggregated to this Suburb (SAL) boundary and are updated monthly as the ABS releases them.
Detail
Building approvals examined by AreaSearch indicate an annual average of about 101 new residential approvals in Cranbourne South, totaling an estimated 505 dwellings approved across the 5 financial years between FY-21 and FY-25, including 118 during FY-25 to date. An influx of roughly 19.7 people per year for every home completed between FY-21 and FY-25 demonstrates a considerable supply shortfall relative to demand, placing upward pressure on property prices where typical construction costs stand at an average of $459,000 per dwelling. The area's predominantly residential character is further underlined by $7.0 million in approved commercial projects during this financial year.
Per capita development in Cranbourne South tracks 50.0% below the Greater Melbourne average. While building has gained momentum recently, this restrained overall pipeline tends to enhance values and interest for established homes. Current construction activity comprises 66.0% detached houses alongside 34.0% medium and high-density housing, delivering varied options such as townhouses and apartments across different price points to cater to families and compact living requirements. This marks a clear pivot away from the existing stock of 100.0% houses, reflecting tighter land availability and rising demand for diverse, affordable dwelling types in a locality recording around 70 people per approval. Long-term projections indicate Cranbourne South will add 1,356 residents by 2041 based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Current construction trajectories appear well-positioned to satisfy incoming residential demand, creating favorable buyer conditions that may enable population expansion to outstrip existing forecasts.
Frequently Asked Questions - Development
Development applications around Cranbourne South
SOURCE: Planning portals and council registers, compiled by AreaSearch. Distance & bearing measured from the suburb midpoint.
AreaSearch tracks one current infrastructure or development project inside Cranbourne South, worth an estimated $115 million. A further 80 sit in the immediately surrounding suburbs, taking the tracked pipeline within reach of the area to $12.6 billion. 25 are already under construction and 21 are due for completion within three years. The pipeline spans residential development, communities, precincts & urban renewal and transport & logistics. Records are compiled from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, council planning portals and public announcements, reviewed and updated daily, then ranked by proximity, construction stage, completion horizon and project scale.
Detail
Community growth and property performance remain closely linked to transport, urban planning, and capital projects. A total of 14 significant infrastructure initiatives have been tracked by AreaSearch as having a direct bearing on the local area. Notable projects include the Western Port Highway Upgrade, Cranbourne West Precinct Structure Plan, Cranbourne West Secondary College, and Harli.
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Frequently Asked Questions - Infrastructure
Harli
Harli is a 7 Star, all-electric, zero-carbon master planned community in Cranbourne West by Resolution Property Group. The project delivers 181 residential lots with a 2 hectare wetland, staged civil works (Stages 1 and 2 titled in 2024) and final stages targeting titles in Q1 2026.
Western Port Highway Upgrade
Upgrade of two Western Port Highway intersections at Ballarto Road and Cranbourne-Frankston Road, replacing roundabouts with traffic lights, widening intersections with new through lanes and slip lanes, and adding about 1.4 km of shared paths to improve safety and traffic flow. Major construction began in January 2022 and the project was completed in December 2022.
Evolve Skye
Evolve Skye is a masterplanned residential community in Melbournes south east, delivering approximately 1,100 homes. The estate features significant public open space, a future primary school site, and proximity to the newly upgraded Ballarto Road intersections which improved local traffic flow in 2025.
Cranbourne West Precinct Structure Plan
The Cranbourne West Precinct Structure Plan is a 791-hectare framework guiding the transformation of Melbourne's south-east into a mixed-use community. As of 2026, the project is in advanced construction with multiple residential estates active and ongoing infrastructure delivery. The plan facilitates approximately 8,500 dwellings and up to 16,000 jobs, supported by regional transport upgrades and new local town centres.
Potts Road Subdivision (68-74 Potts Road)
Proposed residential subdivision of 68-74 Potts Road in Langwarrin to create new residential lots in an established area. Property history shows prior planning activity at 68 Potts Road including a 31-lot subdivision application in 2016 and an aged care facility delivered in 2020 across 68 and 74 Potts Road. Current subdivision details and status should be confirmed via Frankston City Council's Planning Application Register.
ESR Greenlink Industrial Estate
An industry-leading 79-hectare industrial and logistics estate in Melbourne's south-east, designed with a focus on sustainability and worker wellness. The precinct features 5 and 6 Star Green Star rated facilities, over 4 hectares of parkland, walking tracks, and an on-site cafe. Key tenants include Amazon, CEVA Logistics, Focus on Furniture, and JAS Worldwide. While several warehouses are completed and occupied, final stages including Lot 8 are scheduled for delivery in September 2026.
Aspen Skye
Boutique residential land estate of around 180 residential lots located on the corner of Ballarto Road and McCormicks Road in Skye, featuring direct frontage to the planned Skye Activity Centre and wetlands precinct.
Cranbourne West Secondary College
New secondary college serving growing Cranbourne West community. Modern facilities including science labs, performing arts spaces, sports facilities, and technology-enabled learning environments. Capacity for 1,200 students from Years 7-12.
3,870 residents of Cranbourne South are employed, from a labour force of 3,949. Unemployment sits at 2.0%, with participation at 75.6%. Weighted for its industry mix, the area's sectors are forecast to grow about 6.3% nationally over five years. That reflects industry composition only and makes no allowance for local population growth, so in an area growing as fast as this one it understates the likely rise in local jobs. Unemployment and labour force come from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, updated quarterly; the industry and occupation profile is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
Cranbourne South maintains an active labor pool highlighted by significant construction sector participation, an unemployment rate standing at a modest 2.0%, and annual employment gains estimated at 12.0% according to AreaSearch aggregations. As of March 2026, 3,870 residents are actively employed, with local unemployment tracking 2.8% lower than the 4.8% recorded across Greater Melbourne, while labor force participation reaches an elevated 75.6% versus 70.1% across the wider metropolitan region. Census data indicated that 20.4% of working residents operated from home, a metric shaped in part by Covid-19 restrictions. Key employment sectors for local workers comprise construction, health care & social assistance, and manufacturing.
Notably, construction exhibits significant concentration, capturing a workforce share 1.9 times greater than regional averages. Conversely, the professional & technical segment accounts for 5.1%, falling well below the 10.1% metropolitan benchmark. Comparison between the resident workforce and locally situated roles indicates that considerable numbers of workers travel outside the suburb for their jobs. Analysis of ABS and SALM metrics by AreaSearch shows local employment expanding by 12.0% and the labor force rising by 12.1% across the 12-month period, keeping unemployment levels virtually unchanged. In comparison, Greater Melbourne registered a 2.1% rise in employment, a 2.3% gain in the labor pool, and a 0.2 percentage points increase in unemployment. Applying Mar-26 Jobs and Skills Australia projections to the local workforce provides indicative forward trajectories. Across Australia, employment is projected to expand 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying sector rates suggesting local job counts could grow by 6.3% over five years and 13.1% over ten years based on simple industry weighting.
Frequently Asked Questions - Employment
Median household income in Cranbourne South is $2,278 a week (about $118,000 a year), with median personal income at $979 a week. ATO records put median taxable income at $59,263 a year against an average of $66,909. Household income is from the 2021 Census; taxable income is from ATO Taxation Statistics for the latest financial year available, indexed forward using the ABS Wage Price Index.
Detail
Aggregated ATO figures for financial year 2023 show Cranbourne South taxpayers registering a median income of $59,263 and an average income of $66,909, comparable to national standards and aligning with Greater Melbourne figures of $57,688 and $75,164. Incorporating a 9.62% Wage Price Index increase since financial year 2023 lifts estimated metrics to $64,964 (median) and $73,346 (average) as of March 2026. At the 2021 Census, personal, family, and household incomes ranked within the 77th to 82nd percentiles across Australia, with the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket taking the largest share at 42.9% of residents (3,023 people), compared to 32.8% regionally.
Residential costs account for 16.0% of earnings, while overall income strength keeps disposable earnings at the 81st percentile and the SEIFA income score in the 7th decile.
Frequently Asked Questions - Income
Cranbourne South had 1,060 occupied dwellings at the 2021 Census, 100% detached houses and 0% apartments. 63% are owned with a mortgage, 11% rented and 26% owned outright. At that Census the median rent was $470 a week and the median mortgage repayment $2,167 a month, a total housing cost higher than 85% of areas nationally. Rent absorbs 20.6% of household income here and mortgage repayments 22.0%. Dwelling stock, tenure and housing costs are 2021 Census measures — the only source that counts dwellings at this boundary size.
Detail
According to the latest Census, residential stock in Cranbourne South consisted of 99.7% houses and 0.3% other dwellings including semi-detached residences and apartments, contrasting sharply with Greater Melbourne where houses represented 67.9% and other dwellings accounted for 32.1%. Outright home ownership stood at 26.4%, with remaining properties held under a mortgage (62.7%) or leased to tenants (10.9%). Typical housing costs in the area are elevated, with median monthly mortgage payments of $2,167 and median weekly rent of $470 exceeding Melbourne metropolitan averages of $2,000 and $390, as well as nationwide benchmarks of $1,863 for mortgages and $375 for rental accommodation.
Frequently Asked Questions - Housing
Cranbourne South counted 1,060 households at the 2021 Census, an estimated 2,305 today, averaging 2.9 people each. 44% are couples with children, more than in 87% of areas nationally, against 31% couples without children. 13% of households are people living alone, and families average 1.5 children. Household and family composition is measured only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Family units constitute 84.3% of the suburb's living arrangements, featuring couples with children (43.8%), couples without children (30.8%), and single parent households (8.5%). Non-family living situations represent 15.7% of homes, consisting of 13.1% lone person occupancies and 2.7% group houses. The average household size stands at 2.9 people, exceeding the 2.6 person average recorded for Greater Melbourne.
Frequently Asked Questions - Households
23.3% of adults in Cranbourne South hold a university qualification, including 16.5% with a bachelor degree and 4.1% with postgraduate qualifications. A further 27.9% hold a vocational qualification. 1 school serves the area, with 345 enrolment places and an average ICSEA of 1,013 against a national benchmark of 1,000. Qualifications come from the 2021 Census; school enrolments, ICSEA and results come from ACARA's current release.
Detail
Tertiary educational attainment in the locality sits at 23.3%, trailing the Greater Melbourne average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees represent the highest proportion of university awards at 16.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 4.1% and graduate diplomas at 2.7%. Meanwhile, vocational qualifications are widely held, with 40.1% of individuals aged 15+ possessing technical training consisting of certificates (27.9%) and advanced diplomas (12.2%). Engagement in learning is strong throughout the community, with 27.8% of residents enrolled across formal educational institutions. This cohort is distributed across primary schooling (10.3%), secondary education (5.9%), and tertiary courses (4.0%).
Frequently Asked Questions - Education
Schools Detail
Public transport in Cranbourne South reaches 8 stops on 2 routes, timetabled for about 1,400 services a week. The typical home sits about 910 m from its nearest stop. Buses carry the largest share of public transport commuters. Households keep an average of 2.2 vehicles. Stop and service counts are built from operators' published GTFS timetables and refresh with each timetable release; vehicle ownership is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
Public transit in Cranbourne South consists of 8 active bus stops across 2 routes, delivering 1,369 weekly passenger trips. Access is constrained, with residents living an average of 906 meters from their nearest transit point. Private vehicles dominate commuting habits at 95%, with household vehicle ownership averaging 2.2 cars, which sits above the regional norm. Additionally, 20.4% of workers worked from home according to 2021 Census figures collected during pandemic conditions. Transit schedules across all routes total 195 trips per day, providing roughly 171 weekly departures for each designated stop.
Frequently Asked Questions - Transport
Transport Stops Detail
72.2% of residents in Cranbourne South report no long-term health condition. 4.0% need daily assistance with core activities, and 53.3% hold private health cover. The standardised death rate runs at 4.4 per 1,000 residents. Health conditions, assistance needs and insurance are 2021 Census measures; the death rate comes from current ABS releases.
Detail
Health assessments by AreaSearch indicate positive outcomes regarding chronic illness and mortality, with low condition incidence across age groups and private health insurance coverage covering approximately 53% of the total population (~3,755 people), compared to 56.7% across Greater Melbourne. Asthma and mental health conditions are the most prevalent ailments reported, affecting 8.0% and 7.2% of the population respectively, while 72.2% of residents reported having no medical conditions compared to 72.6% regionally. The population under 65 demonstrates strong health standards. Residents aged 65 and over comprise 9.2% of the community (648 people), well below the 15.1% metropolitan benchmark, and exhibit favorable health metrics in line with wider national percentiles.
Frequently Asked Questions - Health
Cranbourne South is largely Australian-born, at 75.7% of residents, with 20.5% speaking a language other than English at home. The largest reported ancestries are English (27.4%) and Australian (27.1%). Ancestry, language and country of birth are counted only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Cultural background indicators show Cranbourne South has a diverse community profile, with 24.3% of individuals born overseas and 20.5% speaking a language other than English in the home. Christianity represents the leading faith at 42.8% of the populace, while the Other religious group shows notable local representation at 2.5% compared to 2.3% across Greater Melbourne. In parental ancestry, English heritage is recorded by 27.4% of residents and Australian heritage by 27.1%, both significantly exceeding regional figures of 20.1% and 18.4%, while Other ancestry accounts for 10.8%. Additional distinct cultural groups include residents of Sri Lankan background at 1.0% (against 0.8% across the region), Dutch ancestry at 1.8% (against 1.2%), and Serbian heritage at 0.5% (against 0.4%).
Frequently Asked Questions - Diversity
The median resident of Cranbourne South is 33, younger than 76% of areas nationally. That is 2 years younger than at the 2021 Census. 27.7% of residents are aged 15 to 34. Age cohorts are not raw Census counts: the Census split is re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections.
Detail
The demographic profile of Cranbourne South is comparatively youthful, with August 2026 figures showing children and young adults (0 - 24) representing 35.5% of the population, compared to 30.5% across Greater Melbourne, while seniors aged 65+ comprise 9.2% versus 15.1% regionally. As of August 2026, the estimated median age is 33, having decreased from 35 at the 2021 Census, positioning it below both the metropolitan median of 37 and the national median of 38 at that Census. The youth demographic has expanded from 31.1% at the Census to 35.5%. Looking ahead to 2041, the largest numerical gain is forecast in the 45 - 64 age group, adding 522 residents (39%) to reach 1,847, while the retiree and elderly bracket is expected to increase at the fastest pace, rising 53% to 992.
Frequently Asked Questions - Age
Data & MethodBoundaries, Sources & Method for Cranbourne South
8 of 14 data sections on this page were updated within the last 12 months — the newest current to Oct 2026.
Everything is aggregated to the Suburb (SAL) boundary shown above, on a 2021 Census baseline. Only 3 sections — housing, households and cultural diversity — still wait on the 2026 Census.
The ledger — source, cycle and currency by section
| Section | Source & update cycle | Currency |
|---|---|---|
| Updated within the last 12 months 8 sections | ||
| Population | ABS, GNAF, Geoscience Australia Annual (ABS ERP) | Aug 2026 2 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release) and updated with new dwellings from GNAF address data. Current to Aug 2026, with the 2021 Census supplying the small-area baseline. | ||
| Age profile | ABS, Geoscience Australia, State governments Annual | Aug 2026 2 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Age cohorts are re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections, current to Aug 2026. Each cohort is held as a Census baseline and a current estimate. | ||
| Development & approvals | ABS, GNAF Monthly (ABS approvals) | Aug 2026 2 months ago headline measures · Jul 2026 baseline |
| Property sales & rents | Valuer General, Rental Board, ABS Weekly sales, quarterly rents | Oct 2026 this month headline measures · Sep 2026 baseline |
| Sales from the state Valuer General register, refreshed weekly, and rents from quarterly rental bond lodgements. Both are read live each time this page loads, current to Oct 2026. | ||
| Employment | ABS, DEWR, JSA Quarterly (ABS SALM) | Mar 2026 7 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Unemployment and labour force from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, current to Mar 2026. The growth outlook applies Department of Employment (now Jobs and Skills Australia) forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to the local industry mix, so it measures sector composition rather than local expansion and makes no allowance for population growth. Job demand comes from the same agency via its Internet Vacancy Index; industry and occupation structure from the 2021 Census. | ||
| Education | ABS, ACARA Annual (ACARA) | Sep 2026 last month headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Transport | ABS, State Transport Departments Each timetable release | Jul 2026 3 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Services & amenities | Provider directories, ACECQA Continuous | Sep 2026 last month all 14 measures |
| Annual and financial-year sources 3 sections | ||
| Infrastructure projects | Infrastructure Australia, State agencies, Local governments Daily | Aug 2025 about a year ago all 1 projects tracked here |
| Project pipeline maintained continuously from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, local government and public announcements. Records are added and revised daily; this area was last updated Aug 2025. | ||
| Income | ABS, ATO Annual (ATO) | FY 2023 3 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| ATO taxable income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index. Census household income provides the distribution detail. | ||
| Health | ABS, ATO Annual | 2024 2 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Census-measured — next update: 2026 Census 3 sections No more current small-area source exists for these, so they are labelled as Census-measured rather than implied to be current. | ||
| Housing | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 30 measures |
| Households | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 18 measures |
| Cultural diversity | ABS, Geoscience Australia 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 44 measures |
"Currency" is the most recent release feeding that section. Where the Census supplies the structural baseline underneath a current headline figure, the row says so.
How the numbers are built
Population
The Census provides the small-area baseline, aggregated from mesh blocks to this boundary. It is then re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release), and new dwellings built since Census night are counted from address data — 273 validated new addresses here. The headline figure is therefore a current estimate for Aug 2026, not a 2021 count (3,241 at the 2021 Census → 7,048 now). Annual growth rates are compound (CAGR), not simple averages.
Age profile
Cohort shares are not raw Census counts. Every cohort is held as a pair — the Census baseline and a current estimate — and the split is re-based using ERP and state population projections, current to Aug 2026. Median age is the Census median plus modelled change since. Charts that show both are labelled "2021 Census vs Current Estimate".
Property sales
Sourced from the state valuation authority's sales register — current, not Census, and refreshed weekly. Medians are calculated from settled transactions in the period shown; periods with very low transaction counts are flagged or suppressed, because a handful of sales can move a median substantially.
Rents
Derived from state rental bond lodgement data, by dwelling type and bedroom count. Bonds are lodged at the start of a new tenancy, so this reflects new lettings, not the whole rented stock.
Development & infrastructure
Building approvals come from current ABS releases; development applications are collected from council and state planning portals; the infrastructure pipeline is compiled from Infrastructure Australia and local government sources. Applications are matched to this boundary by address or coordinates, so very recent lodgements may not yet appear.
Employment & income
Industry and occupation structure comes from the Census, but the headline labour-market indicators do not. Unemployment and labour force are derived from ABS Small Area Labour Markets (quarterly). The employment outlook applies Department of Employment forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to this area's own industry mix (the agency is now Jobs and Skills Australia), as does the Internet Vacancy Index used for job demand. Because it is weighted on industry composition alone, that outlook carries no allowance for local population growth — in fast-growing areas the real rise in local jobs will typically be higher. Income combines Census household income with ATO taxable-income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index.
Education, transport & amenities
School enrolments, ICSEA and performance come from ACARA's current release, not the Census. Public transport stops and service frequency are derived from GTFS timetable feeds published by state transport departments. Services and amenities are proximity and count scores built from provider directories, refreshed on their own cycle. The Census contributes only the travel-to-work and qualification measures.
Rankings and benchmarks. Where we rank this area, the comparison set is every area of the same boundary type — suburbs against suburbs, SA2s against SA2s. Benchmarks compare this area against its greater capital city region and the national figure for the same measure and period.
Limits worth knowing. Small areas carry larger error margins, and the ABS introduces small random adjustments to Census counts to protect confidentiality — so totals may not sum exactly. Estimates re-based from regional data describe the area's expected trajectory, not a direct count of it. Figures are indicative for research and are not financial, planning or valuation advice.
Cross-check us. The Census baseline for this boundary is at ABS 2021 Census QuickStats (SAL20665). QuickStats reports 2021 only — the figures on this page are more current wherever the ledger shows a later date.