Cranbourne South

Cranbourne South lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, as of Nov 2025, Cranbourne South's estimated population is around 4,013. This reflects a growth of 772 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,241. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate of 3,459 in June 2024 and an additional 165 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 200 persons per square kilometer. Cranbourne South's growth rate of 23.8% since the 2021 census exceeded both national (9.7%) and state averages, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Interstate migration contributed approximately 63.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered, it utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Considering projected demographic shifts, exceptional growth is predicted over the period 2024-2041, with Cranbourne South expected to increase by 4,087 persons based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 103.2% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Cranbourne South among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Cranbourne South has seen approximately 107 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling around 538 homes. As of FY26, there have been 11 approvals recorded. On average, about 2.5 people move to the area per new home constructed each year between FY21 and FY25. The average construction cost value for new homes is $401,000.

In FY26, $7.0 million in commercial approvals have been registered, indicating limited commercial development focus. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Cranbourne South has 144.0% more development activity per person. New developments consist of 59.0% detached dwellings and 41.0% attached dwellings, including townhouses and apartments. By 2041, Cranbourne South is projected to grow by approximately 4,142 residents based on current AreaSearch estimates. Given the current development patterns, new housing supply should meet demand, offering favourable conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating further population growth.

Looking ahead, Cranbourne South is expected to grow by 4,142 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Cranbourne South has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 15 projects that may impact this area. Notable projects include the Cranbourne West Precinct Structure Plan, Botanic Ridge Village Shopping Centre, Botanic Ridge Estate, and Cranbourne West Secondary College. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis of employment trends sees Cranbourne South performing better than 85% of local markets assessed across Australia

Cranbourne South has a skilled workforce with the construction sector being notably prominent. Its unemployment rate was 2.4% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 5.3%.

As of September 2025, 2,523 residents are employed, and the unemployment rate is 2.3% lower than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%. Workforce participation is higher at 70.9%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Key industries include construction, health care & social assistance, and manufacturing. Construction employment share is 1.9 times the regional level, while professional & technical services employ only 5.1% of local workers, below Greater Melbourne's 10.1%.

Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 5.3%, labour force grew by 5.6%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.3 percentage points in Cranbourne South. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment grow by 3.0% and unemployment increase by 0.3 percentage points over the same period. State-level data as of 25-Nov shows Victoria's employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%. National forecasts from May-25 project total employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Cranbourne South's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.1% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

The area exhibits notably strong income performance, ranking higher than 70% of areas assessed nationally through AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data for financial year 2023 shows Cranbourne South had a median taxpayer income of $59,263 and an average income of $66,909. These figures align with national averages. Greater Melbourne's median and average incomes were $57,688 and $75,164 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, estimated median and average incomes for Cranbourne South as of September 2025 are approximately $64,152 and $72,429. Census data ranks household, family, and personal incomes in Cranbourne South between the 77th and 82nd percentiles nationally. Income distribution shows that 42.9% (1,721 people) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 category, similar to the broader area's 32.8%. High housing costs consume 16.0% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 81st percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Cranbourne South is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Cranbourne South, as per the latest Census evaluation, 99.7% of dwellings were houses with the remaining 0.3% being semi-detached, apartments, or other types. This contrasts with Melbourne metro's figures of 91.5% houses and 8.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Cranbourne South stood at 26.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 62.7% and rented ones at 10.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,167, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $1,950. Weekly rent median in Cranbourne South was $470, compared to Melbourne metro's $386. Nationally, Cranbourne South's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,167 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Cranbourne South features high concentrations of family households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 84.3% of all households, including 43.8% couples with children, 30.8% couples without children, and 8.5% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 15.7%, with lone person households at 13.1% and group households comprising 2.7%. The median household size is 2.9 people, smaller than Greater Melbourne's average of 3.2.

Cranbourne South performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

The area's university qualification rate is 23.3%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 16.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.1%) and graduate diplomas (2.7%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 40.1% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (12.2%) and certificates (27.9%). Educational participation is high at 27.8%, with 10.3% in primary education, 5.9% in secondary education, and 4.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 27.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.3% in primary education, 5.9% in secondary education, and 4.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Cranbourne South shows eight active transport stops currently operating, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by two different routes that collectively facilitate 485 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility to these transport services is rated as limited, with residents typically residing 906 meters away from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 69 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 60 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Cranbourne South is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population and nearer the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Cranbourne South shows better-than-average health outcomes with lower prevalence of common conditions among its general population compared to both younger and older cohorts nationally. Its private health cover rate is slightly higher at approximately 53% (~2,138 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 49.8%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma (affecting 8.0%) and mental health issues (7.2%). A total of 72.2% report no medical ailments, compared to 76.4% in Greater Melbourne. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 14.3% (573 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 9.6%. Health outcomes among seniors require more attention than those in the broader population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Cranbourne South was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Cranbourne South's population showed higher cultural diversity than most local areas, with 24.3% born overseas and 20.5% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Cranbourne South, comprising 42.8% of its population. The 'Other' religious category had an overrepresentation in Cranbourne South at 2.5%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 6.5%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were English (27.4%), Australian (27.1%), and Other (10.8%). Notably, Sri Lankan ancestry was higher than average at 1.0% in Cranbourne South versus 2.2% regionally, Dutch at 1.8% compared to 1.3%, and Serbian at 0.5%.

Cranbourne South's population is younger than the national pattern

Cranbourne South's median age in 2021 was 35 years, slightly younger than Greater Melbourne's 37 and the national average of 38. The 55-64 age group constituted 12.8% of Cranbourne South's population compared to Greater Melbourne, while the 85+ cohort was less prevalent at 0.5%. Between January 2021 and present, the 35-44 age group grew from 14.1% to 16.5%, and the 75-84 cohort increased from 3.6% to 4.8%. Conversely, the 25-34 cohort declined from 18.6% to 15.3%, and the 0-4 group dropped from 7.5% to 6.1%. Population forecasts indicate substantial demographic changes for Cranbourne South by 2041, with the 45-54 age cohort projected to grow exceptionally, expanding by 813 people (163%) from 497 to 1,311.