Cranbourne South

Cranbourne South lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

The population of Cranbourne South, as estimated by AreaSearch based on ABS updates and new addresses validated since Nov 2025, is around 3,602. This figure represents an increase of 361 people from the 2021 Census count of 3,241, marking an 11.1% growth rate which exceeded the national average of 8.9%. The estimated resident population (ERP) of 3,419, as per AreaSearch's examination of ABS data released in June 2024, combined with additional validated new addresses since the Census date, contributed to this increase. This results in a population density ratio of 180 persons per square kilometer, indicating significant space per person and potential for further development. The primary driver of Cranbourne South's population growth was interstate migration, contributing approximately 63.0% of overall population gains during recent periods. However, natural growth and overseas migration also played positive roles in the demographic shifts.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Considering these projections, exceptional growth is predicted for Cranbourne South over the period to 2041. The area is expected to increase by 4,076 persons, reflecting a gain of 126.1% in total over the 17 years. This places the suburb in the top 10 percent of national areas for population growth during this timeframe.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Cranbourne South among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Cranbourne South had approximately 113 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling 566. As of FY26, seven approvals have been recorded. The average population increase per year per new home constructed between FY21 and FY25 was 2.3 people, suggesting strong demand supporting property values. New homes are being built at an average construction cost value of $413,000, below the regional average, indicating more affordable housing options for buyers.

This financial year has seen $85.0 million in commercial development approvals, reflecting robust commercial development momentum. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Cranbourne South has 156.0% more new home approvals per person. Recent construction activity has eased, but it remains well above the national average, indicating strong developer confidence in the area. New building activity comprises 53.0% standalone homes and 47.0% townhouses or apartments, expanding medium-density options and creating a mix of housing alternatives across price brackets. This shift contrasts with the current housing mix, which is 100.0% houses, reflecting reduced development site availability and evolving lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. The area has approximately 186 people per dwelling approval, indicating an expanding market.

Population forecasts suggest Cranbourne South will gain 4,542 residents by 2041, aligning with current development trends to support steady market conditions without extreme price pressure.

Cranbourne South has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 15 projects likely to impact the area. Notable projects include Botanic Ridge Village Shopping Centre, Botanic Ridge Estate, Cranbourne West Precinct Structure Plan, and Brompton Estate. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis reveals Cranbourne South significantly outperforming the majority of regions assessed nationwide

Cranbourne South has a skilled workforce with the construction sector being notably represented. Its unemployment rate was 2.5% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 3.4%.

As of June 2025, 2,361 residents are employed, and the unemployment rate is 2.1% lower than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation is high at 70.9%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Key industries include construction, health care & social assistance, and manufacturing. Construction employment is particularly high, with a share of 1.9 times the regional level.

However, professional & technical services employ only 5.1% of local workers, below Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment increased by 3.4%, while the labour force grew by 3.9%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate of 0.5 percentage points. This contrasts with Greater Melbourne where employment rose by 3.5% and unemployment also rose by 0.5 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, dated Sep-22, project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Cranbourne South's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.1% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data shows Cranbourne South had a median taxpayer income of $59,091 and an average income of $66,703 in financial year 2022. Nationally, the median was $54,892 and the average was $73,761. By September 2025, estimates suggest median income will be approximately $66,276 and average income $74,814, accounting for a 12.16% increase since financial year 2022. Census data ranks household, family, and personal incomes in Cranbourne South between the 77th and 82nd percentiles nationally. Income distribution shows 42.9% of locals (1,545 people) earn between $1,500 - 2,999, similar to the broader area where this cohort represents 32.8%. High housing costs consume 16.0% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 81st percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Cranbourne South is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

As of the latest Census evaluation in Cranbourne South, 99.7% of dwellings were houses, with 0.3% being other types such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This compares to Melbourne metropolitan area's figures of 91.5% houses and 8.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Cranbourne South stood at 26.4%, with mortgaged properties at 62.7% and rented dwellings at 10.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,167, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $1,950. The median weekly rent in Cranbourne South was $470, compared to Melbourne metro's $386. Nationally, mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $1,863 and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Cranbourne South features high concentrations of family households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households represent 84.3% of all households, consisting of 43.8% couples with children, 30.8% couples without children, and 8.5% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 15.7%, with lone person households at 13.1% and group households comprising 2.7% of the total. The median household size is 2.9 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 3.2.

Cranbourne South performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

The area's university qualification rate is 23.3%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 16.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.1%) and graduate diplomas (2.7%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 40.1% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas at 12.2% and certificates at 27.9%. Educational participation is high, with 27.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education: 10.3% in primary, 5.9% in secondary, and 4.0% in tertiary education.

Cranbourne South Primary School serves the area, enrolling 345 students as of a specific date. The school focuses exclusively on primary education, with ICSEA score of 1013, indicating typical Australian school conditions and balanced educational opportunities. There is one school per 100 residents (9.6), lower than the regional average (15.4), suggesting some students may attend schools in nearby areas.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Cranbourne South has seven active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by two different routes that together facilitate 764 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility to these services is limited, with residents on average being located 908 meters from the nearest stop.

The service frequency across all routes averages 109 trips per day, which equates to approximately 109 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Cranbourne South is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population and nearer the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Cranbourne South shows health outcomes exceeding averages, with common conditions' prevalence low among general population but closer to national averages for older, at-risk groups. Private health cover stands at approximately 53%, or about 1,916 people, compared to Greater Melbourne's 49.1%.

Common medical conditions include asthma (8.0%) and mental health issues (7.2%), with 72.2% reporting no ailments, compared to Greater Melbourne's 76.4%. Residents aged 65 and over constitute 14.3%, or 515 people, higher than Greater Melbourne's 9.6%. While health outcomes for seniors are above average, they require more attention than the broader population.

Cranbourne South was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Cranbourne South's population, born overseas, was 24.3%, significantly higher than most local markets. 20.5% spoke a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, with 42.8%.

The 'Other' religious category comprised 2.5%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 6.5%. In ancestry, English (27.4%) and Australian (27.1%) were substantially higher than regional averages of 17.5% and 17.7% respectively. 'Other' ancestry was notably lower at 10.8% versus the region's 25.5%. Sri Lankan ancestry was overrepresented at 1.0%, compared to the regional average of 2.2%. Dutch (1.8%) and Serbian (0.5%) were also overrepresented, differing from regional averages of 1.3% and 0.5% respectively.

Cranbourne South's population is younger than the national pattern

Cranbourne South has a median age of 36 years, nearly matching Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and slightly below Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Cranbourne South has a higher proportion of residents aged 55-64 (12.8%) but fewer residents aged 85+ (0.5%). Between the 2021 Census and now, the population aged 35-44 has grown from 14.1% to 16.5%, while the 75-84 age group increased from 3.6% to 4.8%. Conversely, the 25-34 age group has declined from 18.6% to 15.2%, and the 0-4 age group dropped from 7.5% to 6.1%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Cranbourne South's age profile will change significantly. The 45-54 age cohort is projected to grow by 193%, adding 862 residents and reaching a total of 1,309.