Cranbourne

Population growth drivers in Cranbourne are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Cranbourne's population was around 23,070 as of November 2025. This figure reflects an increase of 1,789 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 21,281. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 22,544 in June 2024 and an additional 474 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1,770 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Cranbourne's growth rate of 8.4% since the census is within 0.5 percentage points of the national average (8.9%), indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 59.7% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population dynamics project an above median growth, with Cranbourne expected to expand by 5,020 persons to 2041, reflecting a total increase of 19.5% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Cranbourne among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Cranbourne has recorded approximately 162 residential properties granted approval per year. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25813 homes were approved, with an additional 47 approved so far in FY-26. On average, 1.3 new residents arrived per new home over these years.

This balance between supply and demand has contributed to stable market dynamics. The average expected construction cost of new dwellings is $252,000, which is below the regional average, suggesting more affordable housing options for buyers. In FY-26, $73.8 million in commercial approvals have been registered, indicating strong commercial development momentum. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Cranbourne records significantly lower building activity, with 51.0% fewer approvals per person, which typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties.

New developments consist of 77.0% detached houses and 23.0% medium and high-density housing, sustaining the area's suburban identity with a focus on family homes suited to buyers seeking space. The location has approximately 195 people per dwelling approval, indicating an expanding market. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Cranbourne is expected to grow by 4,494 residents through to 2041. Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Cranbourne has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 34thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 41 projects likely to impact the area. Notable projects are Cranbourne Community Hub, ESR Greenlink Industrial Estate, Harli, and Cranbourne Line Upgrade. The following details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis reveals Cranbourne recording weaker employment conditions than most comparable areas nationwide

Cranbourne's workforce is skilled with the construction sector prominent. The unemployment rate was 8.6% in September 2024, decreasing to 4.0% by September 2025.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 4.2%. In September 2025, 11,287 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%. Workforce participation was lower at 60.0% compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Key industries for employment among residents are health care & social assistance, manufacturing, and construction.

Manufacturing is particularly strong with an employment share 1.9 times the regional level. However, professional & technical services are under-represented at 4.3%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited as indicated by Census data. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 4.2% while the labour force grew by 4.8%, resulting in an unemployment rate rise of 0.6 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment grow by 3.0%, labour force increase by 3.3%, and unemployment rise by 0.3 percentage points. State-level data to 25-Nov-2025 shows Victorian employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%. National employment forecasts from May-25 suggest national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Cranbourne's employment mix, local employment is estimated to increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.8% over ten years.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

Income data from AreaSearch's postcode level ATO records for financial year 2022 shows median income in Cranbourne SA2 was $45,710 and average income was $51,820. Nationally, these figures are lower than the national averages of $54,892 (median) and $73,761 (average). In Greater Melbourne, median income is $54,892 with an average of $73,761. Considering a 12.16% increase in wages since financial year 2022, estimated incomes for September 2025 would be approximately $51,268 (median) and $58,121 (average). The 2021 Census indicates household, family, and personal incomes in Cranbourne rank modestly, between the 29th and 34th percentiles. Income distribution shows that 36.5% of locals earn between $1,500 - $2,999 annually (8,420 people), similar to metropolitan regions where 32.8% fall within this range. Housing affordability is a significant issue in Cranbourne, with only 81.4% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 31st percentile nationally.

Cranbourne is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Cranbourne, as per the latest Census evaluation, 80.1% of dwellings were houses while 19.8% consisted of semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types, compared to Melbourne metro's 91.5% houses and 8.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Cranbourne stood at 23.8%, with mortgaged properties at 41.5% and rented ones at 34.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,627, lower than Melbourne metro's average of $1,950. The median weekly rent in Cranbourne was $342, compared to Melbourne metro's $386. Nationally, Cranbourne's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Cranbourne features high concentrations of group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 72.0% of all households, including 33.4% couples with children, 21.0% couples without children, and 15.9% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 28.0%, with lone person households at 24.1% and group households comprising 3.9% of the total. The median household size is 2.7 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 3.2.

Educational outcomes in Cranbourne fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 16.9%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 11.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.0%) and graduate diplomas (1.6%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 38.0% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.4%) and certificates (26.6%). Educational participation is high at 31.6%, comprising 10.9% in primary education, 8.0% in secondary education, and 4.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 31.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.9% in primary education, 8.0% in secondary education, and 4.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Cranbourne has 77 active public transport stops, offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 17 different routes, collectively facilitating 9,074 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is deemed good, with residents typically situated 288 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 1,296 trips per day across all routes, translating to about 117 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Cranbourne is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a considerably higher degree among older age cohorts

Cranbourne faces significant health challenges with common health conditions prevalent across all age groups but to a higher degree among older cohorts. Approximately 46% of Cranbourne's total population (~10,658 people) have private health cover, compared to Greater Melbourne's 49.1% and the national average of 55.3%. The most common conditions are mental health issues (9.2%) and asthma (8.5%), with 68.8% of residents reporting no medical ailments, compared to 76.4% in Greater Melbourne.

Cranbourne has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 13.6% (3,144 people) than Greater Melbourne's 9.6%. Health outcomes among seniors require more attention due to the challenges they present.

Cranbourne was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Cranbourne's cultural diversity is notable, with 36.2% of its population born overseas and 32.9% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the dominant religion in Cranbourne, representing 39.3% of the population. However, there is an overrepresentation in the 'Other' religious category, which comprises 4.5% of Cranbourne's population compared to Greater Melbourne's 6.5%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups are English (22.6%), Australian (21.7%), and Other (19.3%). The English group is significantly higher than the regional average of 17.5%, while the Other category is notably lower at 25.5%. There are also notable differences in the representation of certain ethnic groups: Samoan (1.3% vs 1.3%), Sri Lankan (0.8% vs 2.2%), and Indian (5.3% vs 9.2%).

Cranbourne's population is younger than the national pattern

Cranbourne's median age is 35 years, which is younger than Greater Melbourne's 37 and the national average of 38 years. The 55-64 age group comprises 11.3%, compared to Greater Melbourne's figure, while the 85+ cohort makes up 1.2%. Between 2021 and present, the 35-44 age group has increased from 14.2% to 15.3% of Cranbourne's population. Conversely, the 5-14 age group has decreased from 13.1% to 12.4%. By 2041, projections indicate significant demographic shifts in Cranbourne. The 45-54 cohort is expected to grow by 981 people (36%), rising from 2,733 to 3,715. Meanwhile, the 0-4 age group is projected to grow by a modest 0%, adding just 7 people.