Cranbourne

Population growth drivers in Cranbourne are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Cranbourne's population is around 23,081 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 1,800 people (8.5%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 21,281 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 22,544 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 475 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 1,771 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Cranbourne's 8.5% growth since the census positions it within 1.4 percentage points of the national average (9.9%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which contributed approximately 59.7% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking at population projections moving forward, an above-median population growth of statistical areas across the nation is projected, with the area expected to grow by 5,020 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 19.4% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Cranbourne among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Cranbourne has seen around 162 new homes approved annually, totalling 813 homes over the past 5 financial years. So far in FY-26, 56 approvals have been recorded. At an average of 1.3 new residents per year arriving per new home over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), the market shows a good balance between supply and demand, supporting stable conditions, while new properties are constructed at an average value of $252,000—below the regional average—suggesting more affordable housing options for buyers. Additionally, $73.8 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded this financial year, indicating strong commercial development momentum.

When measured against Greater Melbourne, Cranbourne records markedly lower building activity (51.0% below regional average per person). This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established properties. Recent construction comprises 77.0% detached dwellings and 23.0% attached dwellings, maintaining the area's traditional suburban character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. The location has approximately 195 people per dwelling approval, indicating an expanding market.

Population forecasts indicate Cranbourne will gain 4,483 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Cranbourne has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 29thth percentile nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total, 41 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include ESR Greenlink Industrial Estate, Cranbourne Community Hub, Harli, and the Cranbourne Line Upgrade, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment drivers in Cranbourne are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

Cranbourne possesses a skilled workforce, with the construction sector a particular standout in terms of representation, an unemployment rate of 8.9%, and 3.7% in estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 11,364 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 4.1% above Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%, showing room for improvement, and workforce participation is somewhat below standard (68.3% compared to Greater Melbourne's 71.3%). Based on Census responses, a low 13.5% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

The key industries of employment among residents are health care & social assistance, manufacturing, and construction. The area shows particularly strong specialization in manufacturing, with an employment share of 1.9 times the regional level. In contrast, professional & technical services employ just 4.3% of local workers, below Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of the Census working population versus the resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, during the year to December 2025, employment levels increased by 3.7% and the labour force increased by 4.7%, resulting in unemployment rising by 0.9 percentage points. By comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 2.4%, labour force growth of 2.8%, with unemployment rising 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Cranbourne. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Cranbourne's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.8% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

As per AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released for FY-23, the Cranbourne SA2's median income among taxpayers is $48,393, with an average of $54,399. This is lower than average on a national basis, and compares to Greater Melbourne's median of $57,688 and average of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $52,385 (median) and $58,887 (average) as of September 2025. Census 2021 income data shows household, family and personal incomes all rank modestly in Cranbourne, between the 29th and 34th percentiles. Looking at income distribution, the $1,500 - 2,999 earnings band captures 36.5% of the community (8,424 individuals), reflecting patterns seen at regional levels where 32.8% similarly occupy this range. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 81.4% of income remaining, ranking at the 31st percentile.

Cranbourne is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Dwelling structure within Cranbourne, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 80.1% houses and 19.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Cranbourne lagged that of Melbourne metro, at 23.8%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (41.5%) or rented (34.7%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well below the Melbourne metro average at $1,627, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $342, compared to Melbourne metro's $2,000 and $390. Nationally, Cranbourne's mortgage repayments are significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are less than the national figure of $375.

Cranbourne features high concentrations of group households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 72.0% of all households, comprising 33.4% couples with children, 21.0% couples without children, and 15.9% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 28.0%, with lone person households at 24.1% and group households comprising 3.9% of the total. The median household size of 2.7 people is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Educational outcomes in Cranbourne fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (16.9%) substantially below the Greater Melbourne average of 37.0%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 11.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.0%) and graduate diplomas (1.6%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 38.0% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (11.4%) and certificates (26.6%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 31.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.9% in primary education, 8.0% in secondary education, and 4.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 77 active transport stops operating within Cranbourne, comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 16 individual routes, collectively providing 6,382 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 288 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 89%, with 6% by train. Vehicle ownership averages 1.5 per dwelling, which is above the regional average. A relatively low 13.5% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 911 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 82 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health outcomes in Cranbourne are marginally below the national average with the level of common health conditions among the general population somewhat typical, though higher than the nation's average among older cohorts

Health indicators suggest below-average outcomes in Cranbourne, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The level of common health conditions among the general population is somewhat typical, though higher than the national average among older cohorts, and the rate of private health cover is very low at approximately 47% of the total population (~10,801 people). This compares to 56.7% across Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are mental health issues and asthma, impacting 9.2% and 8.5% of residents, respectively, while 68.8% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents show an above-average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 14.2% of residents aged 65 and over (3,265 people). Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, though they rank lower nationally than the broader population.

Cranbourne was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Cranbourne scores highly on cultural diversity, with 36.2% of its population born overseas and 32.9% speaking a language other than English at home. The main religion in Cranbourne is Christianity, which makes up 39.3% of the population. However, the most apparent overrepresentation is in the Other category, which comprises 4.5% of the population, compared to 2.3% across Greater Melbourne.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Cranbourne are English, comprising 22.6% of the population, Australian, comprising 21.7% of the population, and Other, comprising 19.3% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Samoan is notably overrepresented at 1.3% of Cranbourne (vs 0.3% regionally), Sri Lankan at 0.8% (vs 0.8%) and Indian at 5.3% (vs 4.2%).

Cranbourne's population is younger than the national pattern

Cranbourne's median age of 35 years stands slightly younger than Greater Melbourne's 37 as well as somewhat younger than the 38-year national average. The 55 - 64 age group shows strong representation at 11.5% compared to Greater Melbourne, whereas the 85+ cohort is less prevalent at 1.2%. In the period since 2021, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 3.5% to 4.7% of the population, while the 35 to 44 cohort increased from 14.2% to 15.4%. Conversely, the 25 to 34 cohort has declined from 16.4% to 15.6%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes for Cranbourne. The 45 to 54 age cohort is projected to increase solidly, expanding by 968 people (35%) from 2,746 to 3,715. Meanwhile, the 0 to 4 cohort grows by a modest 3% (48 people).