Cranbourne
Statistical Area - sa2

Population growth drivers in Cranbourne are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Cranbourne's population was around 23,003 as of August 2025. This reflects an increase of 1,722 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 21,281 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 22,544 in June 2024 and an additional 450 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,765 persons per square kilometer. Cranbourne's population growth of 8.1% since census positions it within 0.5 percentage points of the national average (8.6%). Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration, contributing approximately 59.7% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on the latest population numbers, Cranbourne is projected to expand by 5,020 persons to 2041, with an increase of 19.8% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Cranbourne among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Cranbourne has recorded approximately 140 residential properties granted approval per year. Development approval data is produced by the ABS on a financial year basis, showing 704 homes over the past five years from FY20 to FY25, with 14 approvals so far in FY26. On average, 1.3 new residents have been added per year per dwelling constructed over these five years. The supply and demand dynamics appear stable, with an average construction cost of $429,000 per dwelling, aligning with regional trends.

This financial year has seen $73.8 million in commercial development approvals recorded, indicating strong commercial development momentum. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Cranbourne has significantly less development activity, 60.0% below the regional average per person, which typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties. New development consists of 77.0% detached dwellings and 23.0% medium and high-density housing, preserving the area's suburban nature with a focus on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers. The location has approximately 195 people per dwelling approval, indicating an expanding market.

Population forecasts indicate Cranbourne will gain 4,561 residents by 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Cranbourne has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Local infrastructure changes significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 44 projects potentially impacting the area. Notable ones are ESR Greenlink Industrial Estate, Cranbourne Community Hospital, Cranbourne Hub, and Cranbourne Line Upgrade. The following details projects likely most relevant:.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Employment drivers in Cranbourne are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

Cranbourne's workforce is skilled with the construction sector being prominent. The unemployment rate was 8.7% in June 2024, increasing to 9.1% by June 2025.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 3.3%. As of June 2025, 11,237 residents were employed with an unemployment rate of 4.1%, higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation was 60.0% compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Key industries for employment among residents are health care & social assistance, manufacturing, and construction.

Manufacturing shows strong specialization with an employment share of 1.9 times the regional level. Professional & technical services have lower representation at 4.3% versus the regional average of 10.1%. Employment opportunities locally appear limited based on Census working population vs resident population data. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 3.3%, labour force increased by 4.4%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 1 percentage point. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 3.5% and labour force growth of 4.0%, with a 0.5 percentage point rise in unemployment rate. State-level data from Sep-25 shows VIC employment grew by 1.08% year-on-year, adding 39,880 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%. National employment forecasts from May 2025 project growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Cranbourne's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.0% over five years and 12.8% over ten years.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

Cranbourne's median taxpayer income was $45,710 and average income was $51,820 in financial year 2022. This is lower than the national average, contrasting with Greater Melbourne's median income of $54,892 and average income of $73,761 during the same period. By March 2025, based on a 10.11% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2022, estimated incomes would be approximately $50,331 (median) and $57,059 (average). Census 2021 income data ranks household, family, and personal incomes in Cranbourne modestly, between the 30th and 34th percentiles. Income distribution shows that 36.5% of locals (8,396 people) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 category, similar to the broader area where 32.8% occupy this range. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Cranbourne, with only 81.4% of income remaining, ranking at the 31st percentile.

Cranbourne is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Cranbourne, as recorded in the latest Census, 80.1% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 19.8% being semi-detached homes, apartments, or other types. This is compared to Melbourne metropolitan area's 91.5% houses and 8.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Cranbourne stood at 23.8%, with mortgaged dwellings at 41.5% and rented ones at 34.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,627, below Melbourne metro's average of $1,950. The median weekly rent in Cranbourne was $342, lower than Melbourne metro's $386. Nationally, Cranbourne's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Cranbourne features high concentrations of group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 72.0% of all households, including 33.4% couples with children, 21.0% couples without children, and 15.9% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 28.0%, with lone person households at 24.1% and group households comprising 3.9%. The median household size is 2.7 people, smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 3.2.

Educational outcomes in Cranbourne fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area has university qualification rates of 16.9%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 11.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.0%) and graduate diplomas (1.6%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 38.0% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.4%) and certificates (26.6%).

Educational participation is high at 31.6%, comprising primary education (10.9%), secondary education (8.0%), and tertiary education (4.0%). Cranbourne has a network of seven schools educating approximately 3,742 students, with typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 967) and balanced educational opportunities. Education provision is balanced, serving distinct age groups through six primary and one secondary school.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Cranbourne has 77 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 17 different routes that collectively facilitate 9,074 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of transport in Cranbourne is rated as good, with residents typically located 288 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 1,296 trips per day across all routes, which translates to approximately 117 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health outcomes in Cranbourne are marginally below the national average with the level of common health conditions among the general population somewhat typical, though higher than the nation's average among older cohorts

Cranbourne's health indicators show below-average results, with common health conditions among its general population being somewhat typical but higher than the national average for older cohorts. Private health cover is extremely low at approximately 46% of the total population (~10,627 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 49.1% and the national average of 55.3%. The most prevalent medical conditions are mental health issues (9.2%) and asthma (8.5%), while 68.8% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to Greater Melbourne's 76.4%.

Cranbourne has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 13.6% (3,135 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 9.6%. Health outcomes among seniors require more attention than the broader population.

Cranbourne is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Cranbourne has a high cultural diversity, with 36.2% of its population born overseas and 32.9% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the main religion in Cranbourne, comprising 39.3% of its population. However, the most notable overrepresentation is in Other religions, which makes up 4.5% of Cranbourne's population compared to Greater Melbourne's 6.5%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups are English at 22.6%, Australian at 21.7%, and Other at 19.3%. Notably, Samoan ancestry is overrepresented in Cranbourne at 1.3% compared to the regional average of 1.3%, Sri Lankan at 0.8% compared to 2.2%, and Indian at 5.3% compared to 9.2%.

Cranbourne's population is younger than the national pattern

Cranbourne's median age is 35 years, which is slightly younger than Greater Melbourne's 37 and somewhat younger than the national average of 38 years. The 55-64 age group constitutes 11.3%, compared to Greater Melbourne, while the 85+ cohort is less prevalent at 1.2%. Between 2021 and present, the 35-44 age group has increased from 14.2% to 15.3% of the population. Conversely, the 5-14 cohort has declined from 13.1% to 12.4%. By 2041, forecasts indicate significant demographic changes in Cranbourne. The 45-54 age group is projected to increase by 989 people (36%), from 2,725 to 3,715. Meanwhile, the 0-4 cohort grows by a modest 1% (11 people).