Cranbourne

Population growth drivers in Cranbourne are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Cranbourne's population, as of February 2026, is approximately 23,081. This figure represents an increase of 1,800 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 21,281. The increase is inferred from the estimated resident population of 22,544 in June 2024 and an additional 475 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1,771 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Cranbourne's growth rate of 8.5% since the census is within 1.4 percentage points of the national average (9.9%), indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 59.7% of overall population gains during recent periods, driving primary growth in the area.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusting using a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking ahead, an above median population growth is projected for statistical areas across the nation. Cranbourne is expected to grow by 5,020 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a total increase of 19.4% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Cranbourne among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Cranbourne has seen approximately 162 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling 813 homes. As of FY-26, 56 approvals have been recorded. On average, 1.3 new residents arrive per year for each new home built between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating a balanced supply and demand market with stable conditions. The average construction cost value for new properties is $252,000, which is below the regional average, suggesting more affordable housing options.

In FY-26, commercial development approvals totalled $73.8 million, demonstrating strong commercial development momentum. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Cranbourne records significantly lower building activity, with 51.0% less per person, typically supporting stronger demand and values for established properties. Recent construction comprises 77.0% detached dwellings and 23.0% attached dwellings, maintaining the area's suburban character focused on family homes. The location has approximately 195 people per dwelling approval, suggesting an expanding market.

According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Cranbourne is projected to gain 4,483 residents by 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing favourable conditions for buyers and potentially supporting population growth beyond current projections.

Cranbourne has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 29thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 41 projects likely impacting the region. Notable projects are ESR Greenlink Industrial Estate, Cranbourne Community Hub, Harli, and Cranbourne Line Upgrade. The following details projects expected to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Cranbourne has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Cranbourne has a skilled workforce with the construction sector being notably represented. The unemployment rate in Cranbourne was 8.6% last year. Employment growth over this period was estimated at 4.2%.

As of September 2025, there are 11,287 residents employed in Cranbourne, with an unemployment rate of 4.0%, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%. The workforce participation rate in Cranbourne is 67.6%, lower than Greater Melbourne's 71.0%. According to Census responses, only 13.5% of residents work from home. The key industries for employment among residents are health care & social assistance, manufacturing, and construction.

Manufacturing employs a particularly high proportion of local workers, at 1.9 times the regional level. In contrast, professional & technical services employ only 4.3% of local workers, lower than Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels in Cranbourne increased by 4.2%, while labour force increased by 4.8%, resulting in an unemployment rate rise of 0.6 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 3.0% over the same period, with unemployment rising by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 offer insights into potential future demand within Cranbourne. These projections suggest that national employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. However, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Cranbourne's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.8% over ten years.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

The latest postcode level ATO data for Cranbourne SA2, released in financial year 2023, indicates a median income among taxpayers of $48,393 and an average income of $54,399. This is lower than the national average. In comparison, Greater Melbourne had a median income of $57,688 and an average income of $75,164 in the same period. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, current estimates suggest a median income of approximately $52,385 and an average income of $58,887 as of September 2025. According to Census 2021 data, incomes in Cranbourne rank modestly, with household, family, and personal incomes all between the 29th and 34th percentiles. The income distribution shows that 36.5% of individuals (8,424 people) earn between $1,500 and $2,999, which is similar to regional patterns where 32.8% fall within this range. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Cranbourne, with only 81.4% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 31st percentile.

Cranbourne is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

The dwelling structure in Cranbourne, as per the latest Census, consisted of 80.1% houses and 19.8% other dwellings such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This compares to Melbourne metropolitan's figures of 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Cranbourne stood at 23.8%, with mortgaged properties at 41.5% and rented dwellings at 34.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,627, below Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. The median weekly rent in Cranbourne was $342, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Cranbourne's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Cranbourne features high concentrations of group households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households make up 72.0% of all households, including 33.4% couples with children, 21.0% couples without children, and 15.9% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 28.0%, with lone person households at 24.1% and group households comprising 3.9%. The median household size is 2.7 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Educational outcomes in Cranbourne fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 16.9%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 11.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.0%) and graduate diplomas (1.6%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 38.0% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.4%) and certificates (26.6%). Educational participation is high, with 31.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 10.9% in primary education, 8.0% in secondary education, and 4.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Cranbourne has 77 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 16 different routes that together facilitate 6,382 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of transport in Cranbourne is rated as good, with residents typically living within 288 meters of the nearest stop. Most residents commute outwards from this primarily residential area. Car remains the dominant mode of transport for 89% of residents, while train accounts for 6%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.5 per dwelling, which is higher than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, only 13.5% of residents work from home, a figure that may reflect COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency across all routes averages 911 trips per day, equating to approximately 82 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health outcomes in Cranbourne are marginally below the national average with the level of common health conditions among the general population somewhat typical, though higher than the nation's average among older cohorts

Cranbourne's health indicators suggest below-average outcomes based on AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are higher than the national average, particularly among older cohorts. Mental health issues and asthma are the most common medical conditions, affecting 9.2% and 8.5% of residents respectively.

Approximately 68.8% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 72.6% in Greater Melbourne. Private health cover is very low at around 47%, with approximately 10,801 people covered (~56.7% across Greater Melbourne and 55.7% nationally). Working-age residents show an above-average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 3,265 seniors aged 65 and over, comprising 14.2% of the total population. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges but rank lower than those of the broader national population.

Cranbourne was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Cranbourne's cultural diversity is notable, with 36.2% of its population born overseas and 32.9% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Cranbourne, accounting for 39.3% of the population. The 'Other' religious category is overrepresented in Cranbourne compared to Greater Melbourne, with 4.5% versus 2.3%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups are English (22.6%), Australian (21.7%), and Other (19.3%). Some ethnic groups have notable differences in representation: Samoan is overrepresented at 1.3% compared to 0.3%, Sri Lankan matches regional levels at 0.8%, while Indian is slightly higher at 5.3% versus 4.2%.

Cranbourne's population is younger than the national pattern

Cranbourne's median age in 2021 was 35 years, slightly younger than Greater Melbourne's 37 and the national average of 38. The 55-64 age group constituted 11.5%, higher than Greater Melbourne, while the 85+ cohort was less prevalent at 1.2%. Between 2021 and present, the 75 to 84 age group grew from 3.5% to 4.7%, and the 35 to 44 cohort increased from 14.2% to 15.4%. Conversely, the 25 to 34 cohort declined from 16.4% to 15.6%. Population forecasts for Cranbourne in 2041 indicate significant demographic changes. The 45 to 54 age group is projected to increase by 968 people (35%) from 2,746 to 3,715. Meanwhile, the 0 to 4 cohort grows by a modest 3% (48 people).