Cranbourne
Statistical Area - sa2

Population growth drivers in Cranbourne are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Cranbourne's population, as of August 2025, is approximately 23,003 people. This figure represents an increase of 1,722 individuals since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 21,281. The growth is inferred from ABS estimates showing an estimated resident population of 22,544 in June 2024 and an additional 450 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1,765 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Cranbourne's growth rate of 8.1% since the census is within 0.5 percentage points of the national average (8.6%), indicating strong growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 59.7% of overall population gains in recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs Victorian Government Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. Based on these projections, Cranbourne is expected to grow by an above median rate nationally, with a projected increase of 5,020 persons by 2041, representing a total growth of 19.8% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Cranbourne among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Cranbourne has recorded approximately 162 residential properties granted approval annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, a total of 813 homes were approved, with an additional 16 approved so far in FY-26. On average, 1.3 new residents have arrived per new home each year during these five financial years.

This indicates that supply and demand are well-matched, contributing to stable market dynamics. The average value of new dwellings developed is $429,000, which aligns with regional trends. In terms of commercial development, $73.8 million in approvals have been registered this financial year, demonstrating strong momentum. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Cranbourne has recorded significantly lower building activity, at 51.0% below the regional average per person.

This scarcity typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties. The current new development composition is 77.0% detached houses and 23.0% medium and high-density housing, maintaining the area's suburban identity with a focus on family homes suited to buyers seeking space. The location has approximately 195 people per dwelling approval, suggesting an expanding market. Looking ahead, Cranbourne is projected to grow by 4,561 residents by 2041. Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering favorable conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Cranbourne has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 41 projects that could impact this region. Notable ones are Cranbourne Community Hub, ESR Greenlink Industrial Estate, Cranbourne Line Upgrade, and Cranbourne Community Hospital. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch assessment indicates Cranbourne faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

Cranbourne's workforce is skilled with notable representation in construction. The unemployment rate was 8.7% as of June 2025.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 3.3%. As of June 2025, 11,237 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 4.1%, higher than Greater Melbourne's 4.6%. Workforce participation in Cranbourne was 60.0%, below Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Key industries for employment among residents are health care & social assistance, manufacturing, and construction.

Manufacturing is particularly strong with an employment share of 1.9 times the regional level. Professional & technical services are under-represented at 4.3% compared to Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited as indicated by Census data. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 3.3%, labour force grew by 4.4%, leading to a rise in unemployment of 1.0 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment rise by 3.5% and unemployment increase by 0.5 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 project a 6.6% growth over five years and 13.7% over ten years nationally. Applying these projections to Cranbourne's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.0%% over five years and 12.8% over ten years, based on simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

Income data from AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO figures for financial year 2022 shows median income in Cranbourne was $45,710 and average income was $51,820. This is lower than the national averages of $54,892 (median) and $73,761 (average), which were recorded for Greater Melbourne during the same period. Based on a 12.16% increase in Wage Price Index since financial year 2022, estimated median income in Cranbourne as of September 2025 would be approximately $51,268 and average income around $58,121. According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Cranbourne rank modestly, between the 30th and 34th percentiles for household, family, and personal incomes. The earnings profile shows that 36.5% of locals (8,396 people) fall into the $1,500 - $2,999 income bracket, similar to the metropolitan region where 32.8% occupy this range. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Cranbourne, with only 81.4% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 31st percentile.

Cranbourne is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Cranbourne, as per the latest Census, 80.1% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 19.8% being semi-detached homes, apartments, or other types. This differs from Melbourne metro's dwelling structure, which was 91.5% houses and 8.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Cranbourne stood at 23.8%, with mortgaged dwellings at 41.5% and rented ones at 34.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,627, lower than Melbourne metro's average of $1,950. The median weekly rent in Cranbourne was $342, compared to Melbourne metro's $386. Nationally, Cranbourne's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Cranbourne features high concentrations of group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 72.0% of all households, including 33.4% couples with children, 21.0% couples without children, and 15.9% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 28.0%, consisting of 24.1% lone person households and 3.9% group households. The median household size is 2.7 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 3.2.

Educational outcomes in Cranbourne fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate of 16.9% is significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 11.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.0%) and graduate diplomas (1.6%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 38.0% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.4%) and certificates (26.6%). Educational participation is high at 31.6%, comprising primary education (10.9%), secondary education (8.0%), and tertiary education (4.0%).

Cranbourne has a network of seven schools educating approximately 3,742 students, with typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 967) and balanced educational opportunities. The area's six primary and one secondary schools serve distinct age groups.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Cranbourne has 77 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These are served by 17 different routes that collectively facilitate 9,074 weekly passenger trips. The city's transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents located an average of 288 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency across all routes averages 1,296 trips per day, equating to approximately 117 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health outcomes in Cranbourne are marginally below the national average with the level of common health conditions among the general population somewhat typical, though higher than the nation's average among older cohorts

Health indicators suggest below-average outcomes in Cranbourne. The level of common health conditions among the general population is somewhat typical but higher than the national average among older cohorts. Private health cover stands at approximately 46% of the total population (~10,627 people), compared to 49.1% across Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.3%.

Mental health issues and asthma are the most common medical conditions in the area, impacting 9.2 and 8.5% of residents respectively. 68.8% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 76.4% across Greater Melbourne. The area has 13.6% of residents aged 65 and over (3,135 people), higher than the 9.6% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges requiring more attention than the broader population.

Cranbourne is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Cranbourne's population comprises 36.2% born overseas, with 32.9% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion, practiced by 39.3%. The 'Other' religious category represents 4.5%, higher than Greater Melbourne's 6.5%.

In terms of ancestry, English (22.6%) and Australian (21.7%) are the most common, both higher than regional averages. 'Other' ancestry comprises 19.3%, lower than the regional average of 25.5%. Samoan (1.3%), Sri Lankan (0.8%), and Indian (5.3%) groups show notable differences compared to regional averages.

Cranbourne's population is younger than the national pattern

Cranbourne's median age was 35 years in 2021, slightly younger than Greater Melbourne's 37 and the national average of 38. The age group of 55-64 had strong representation at 11.3%, compared to Greater Melbourne, while the 85+ cohort was less prevalent at 1.2%. Between 2021 and present day, the population aged 35 to 44 grew from 14.2% to 15.3%, whereas the age group of 5 to 14 declined from 13.1% to 12.4%. Population forecasts for Cranbourne in 2041 indicate significant demographic changes. The age cohort of 45 to 54 is projected to increase by 989 people, rising from 2,725 to 3,715. Meanwhile, the 0 to 4 age group grows by a modest 1%, adding 11 people.