Cranbourne

Population growth drivers in Cranbourne are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Cranbourne's population was around 22,726 as of May 2026. This figure represents an increase of 1,445 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 21,281. The growth is inferred from ABS estimated resident population data of 22,708 in June 2025 and validated new addresses of 474 since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1,744 persons per square kilometer, higher than average national levels assessed by AreaSearch. Cranbourne's growth rate of 6.8% since the census is within 2.5 percentage points of Victoria's state average of 9.3%, indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 59.4% of overall population gains during recent periods in Cranbourne.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population projections indicate an above median growth for statistical areas nationally, with Cranbourne expected to grow by 4,633 persons to 2041 based on latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a total increase of 20.3% over the 16-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Cranbourne among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Cranbourne has seen approximately 162 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling 813 homes. As of FY-26, 82 approvals have been recorded. On average, 1.3 new residents per year have arrived with each new home constructed between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating a balanced supply and demand market that supports stable conditions. New properties are being constructed at an average expected cost of $252,000, which is below the regional average, suggesting more affordable housing options for buyers.

This financial year has seen $73.8 million in commercial development approvals recorded, demonstrating strong commercial development momentum. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Cranbourne records roughly half the building activity per person and ranks among the 70th percentile of areas assessed nationally. Recent construction comprises 77.0% detached dwellings and 23.0% attached dwellings, maintaining the area's traditional suburban character with a focus on family homes.

The location has approximately 195 people per dwelling approval, indicating an expanding market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Cranbourne is forecasted to gain 4,615 residents by 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections and providing good conditions for buyers.

Cranbourne has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 29thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 40 projects likely to impact the area. Notable projects include ESR Greenlink Industrial Estate, Cranbourne Community Hub, Harli, and Cranbourne Line Upgrade. The following details projects likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment drivers in Cranbourne are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

Cranbourne has a skilled workforce with notable representation in the construction sector. Its unemployment rate was 8.9% in December 2025, compared to Greater Melbourne's 4.8%. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 3.7%.

As of December 2025, 11,364 residents were employed, with a workforce participation rate of 67.9%, below Greater Melbourne's 69.9%. Only 13.5% of residents worked from home according to Census responses. Key industries for employment are health care & social assistance, manufacturing, and construction. Manufacturing is particularly strong, employing 1.9 times the regional level.

However, professional & technical services employ only 4.3% of local workers, compared to Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited as indicated by Census data on working population versus resident population. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment levels increased by 3.7%, labour force by 4.7%, leading to an unemployment rise of 0.9 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 2.4% and unemployment rising by 0.3 percentage points during the same period. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, published in May-25, project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Cranbourne's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.8% over ten years.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows Cranbourne SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $48,393 and an average of $54,399. This is lower than the national average. Greater Melbourne had a median income of $57,688 and an average of $75,164 in the same period. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes for March 2026 would be approximately $53,048 (median) and $59,632 (average). Census 2021 income data ranks Cranbourne's household, family, and personal incomes modestly, between the 29th and 34th percentiles. The $1,500 - 2,999 earnings band captures 36.5% of Cranbourne's community (8,294 individuals), similar to regional levels at 32.8%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Cranbourne, with only 81.4% of income remaining, ranking at the 31st percentile.

Cranbourne is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

The dwelling structure in Cranbourne, as per the latest Census, consisted of 80.1% houses and 19.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Cranbourne was at 23.8%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (41.5%) or rented (34.7%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,627, below Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. The median weekly rent figure was recorded at $342, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Cranbourne's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Cranbourne features high concentrations of group households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 72.0% of all households, including 33.4% couples with children, 21.0% couples without children, and 15.9% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 28.0%, with lone person households at 24.1% and group households making up 3.9%. The median household size is 2.7 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Educational outcomes in Cranbourne fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 16.9%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 11.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.0%) and graduate diplomas (1.6%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 38.0% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas (11.4%) and certificates (26.6%).

Educational participation is high, with 31.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 10.9% in primary, 8.0% in secondary, and 4.0% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Cranbourne has 77 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 16 different routes that collectively facilitate 6,382 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 288 meters from their nearest transport stop. As a predominantly residential area, most residents commute outward using cars, which remain the dominant mode of transportation at 89%. Six percent of residents use trains for commuting. On average, there are 1.5 vehicles per dwelling in Cranbourne, which is higher than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, only 13.5% of residents work from home, a figure that may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency averages 911 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 82 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health outcomes in Cranbourne are marginally below the national average with the level of common health conditions among the general population somewhat typical, though higher than the nation's average among older cohorts

Cranbourne's health indicators show below-average outcomes based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions among its general population are somewhat typical but higher than the national average among older cohorts. Private health cover is very low at approximately 47% of the total population (around 10,635 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 56.7% and the national average of 55.7%.

Mental health issues and asthma are the most common medical conditions, affecting 9.2 and 8.5% of residents respectively, while 68.8% claim to be completely clear of medical ailments compared to Greater Melbourne's 72.6%. Working-age residents have an above-average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 13.8% of residents aged 65 and over (3,145 people), lower than Greater Melbourne's 15.0%. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges but rank lower nationally than the broader population.

Cranbourne was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Cranbourne has a high level of cultural diversity, with 36.2% of its population born overseas and 32.9% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Cranbourne, comprising 39.3% of the population. The category 'Other' is overrepresented in Cranbourne compared to Greater Melbourne, making up 4.5% versus 2.3%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three represented groups are English (22.6%), Australian (21.7%), and Other (19.3%). Notably, Samoan (1.3%) and Indian (5.3%) populations are overrepresented in Cranbourne compared to regional averages of 0.3% and 4.2%, respectively.

Cranbourne's population is younger than the national pattern

Cranbourne's median age was 35 years in 2021, slightly younger than Greater Melbourne's 37 and the national average of 38. The strongest representation among age groups was the 55-64 cohort at 11.3%, compared to Greater Melbourne's percentage. Conversely, the 75-84 cohort had a lower prevalence in Cranbourne at 4.4%. Between 2021 and the present day, the 35-44 age group has increased from 14.2% to 15.3% of Cranbourne's population. During this period, the 45-54 cohort declined from 12.5% to 11.8%. Population forecasts for Cranbourne in 2041 indicate significant demographic changes. The 45-54 age group is projected to increase by 977 people (36%) from 2,681 to 3,659. Meanwhile, the 0-4 cohort is expected to grow by a modest 4% (60 people).