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This analysis uses ABS Statistical Areas Level 2 (SA2) boundaries, which can materially differ from Suburbs and Localities (SAL) even when sharing similar names.
SA2 boundaries are defined by the Australian Bureau of Statistics and are designed to represent communities for statistical reporting (e.g., census and ERP).
Suburbs and Localities (SAL) represent commonly-used suburb/locality names (postal-style areas) and may use different geographic boundaries. For comprehensive analysis, consider reviewing both boundary types if available.
est. as @ -- *
ABS ERP | -- people | --
2021 Census | -- people
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Cranbourne has an estimated 22,726 residents, up from 21,281 at the 2021 Census — a change of 1,445 people, or 6.8%. Growth has averaged 0.9% a year over five years. 474 new addresses have been validated here since Census night. Overseas migration accounts for 59.4% of that increase. That puts 1,744 residents on each square kilometre. Population is estimated from ABS Estimated Resident Population releases and GNAF address data, re-based from the 2021 Census and updated annually.
Detail
According to the analysis by AreaSearch, the population of Cranbourne stands at approximately 22,726 as of May 2026. This represents an expansion of 1,445 individuals (6.8%) relative to the 21,281 residents recorded in the 2021 Census. This population shift is calculated using the June 2025 ABS estimated resident population of 22,708 combined with 474 validated new addresses registered since the Census. With this population level, the local density reaches 1,744 persons per square kilometer, a figure that exceeds the typical average of national locations analyzed by AreaSearch. The growth rate of 6.8% since the Census is within 2.5 percentage points of the state average of 9.3%, reflecting competitive local growth dynamics.
Overseas migration was the primary driver of this growth, accounting for roughly 59.4% of the total population increase in recent times. For each SA2 region, AreaSearch applies the ABS/Geoscience Australia projections published in 2024, utilizing 2022 as the baseline year. For any SA2 regions where this data is unavailable, projections from the 2023 VIC State Government Regional/LGA release are utilized, adjusting them through a weighted aggregation of population growth from the LGA level to the SA2 level. The age group growth rates derived from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for the period spanning 2032 to 2041. Future projections suggest that the area will experience population growth above the national median for statistical areas, with a projected increase of 4,633 people by 2041 based on the most recent annual ERP statistics, representing a total rise of 20.3% over the 16 years.
Frequently Asked Questions - Population
813 new dwellings have been approved in Cranbourne over the past five years, an average of 162 a year. That places the area in the 74th percentile for residential development activity nationally, about 7 approvals per 1,000 residents a year. Of the 115 dwellings approved in the latest reporting year, 77% were detached houses and the rest townhouses or apartments. Approvals are currently running at an annualised 99, well below that longer-run average. Figures come from ABS building approvals aggregated to this SA2 boundary and are updated monthly as the ABS releases them.
Detail
Annual approvals for new dwellings in Cranbourne average approximately 162, resulting in a total of 813 residential approvals over the last 5 financial years. Records indicate 91 approvals so far during FY-26. An average arrival of 1.3 new residents per new dwelling annually between FY-21 and FY-25 suggests a well-balanced relationship between supply and demand, contributing to stable market conditions. Newly built properties have an average construction cost of $252,000, which sits below the average for the wider region and indicates more budget-friendly choices for buyers. Furthermore, commercial building approvals have reached $73.8 million in the current financial year, showcasing solid momentum in commercial development.
Building activity per person in Cranbourne is approximately half of the level recorded in Greater Melbourne, though the area ranks in the 70th percentile among all locations evaluated across the country. Dwellings built recently consist of 77.0% detached houses and 23.0% attached designs, preserving a classic suburban environment that appeals to residents looking for family homes with space. There are about 197 residents per dwelling approval, which points to a growing market. Based on the latest quarterly figures from AreaSearch, population projections indicate that Cranbourne will add 4,615 residents by 2041. The current pace of construction suggests the supply of new housing will easily accommodate this demand, ensuring favorable buying conditions and potentially encouraging growth beyond the projected population levels.
Frequently Asked Questions - Development
Development applications around Cranbourne
SOURCE: Planning portals and council registers, compiled by AreaSearch. Distance & bearing measured from the suburb midpoint.
AreaSearch tracks 8 current infrastructure and development projects inside Cranbourne, worth an estimated $2.01 billion. A further 151 sit in the immediately surrounding suburbs, taking the tracked pipeline within reach of the area to $45.4 billion. 47 are already under construction and 54 are due for completion within three years. The pipeline spans residential development, communities, precincts & urban renewal and education & training. Records are compiled from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, council planning portals and public announcements, reviewed and updated daily, then ranked by proximity, construction stage, completion horizon and project scale.
Detail
Local infrastructure projects, planning choices, and development initiatives are key drivers of regional performance. AreaSearch has identified a total of 40 projects that are expected to influence the local area. Some of the most significant projects include the ESR Greenlink Industrial Estate, the Cranbourne Community Hub, Harli, and the Cranbourne Line Upgrade, with details on the most relevant developments provided in the list below.
Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.
INFRASTRUCTURE SEARCH
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Frequently Asked Questions - Infrastructure
ESR Greenlink Industrial Estate
An industry-leading 79-hectare industrial and logistics estate in Melbourne's south-east, designed with a focus on sustainability and worker wellness. The precinct features 5 and 6 Star Green Star rated facilities, over 4 hectares of parkland, walking tracks, and an on-site cafe. Key tenants include Amazon, CEVA Logistics, Focus on Furniture, and JAS Worldwide. While several warehouses are completed and occupied, final stages including Lot 8 are scheduled for delivery in September 2026.
Cranbourne Community Hub
The Cranbourne Community Hub is a three-storey integrated services facility designed to revitalise the Cranbourne Major Activity Centre. The project will co-locate the Cranbourne Library (Connected Libraries), City of Casey Customer Service, and Youth Information Centre, alongside the Peninsula Community Legal Centre and community health services. In May 2025, Council endorsed the project following concept design engagement. The facility serves as a one-stop shop to improve access to council and community infrastructure, featuring multi-purpose spaces for programs, arts, and technology training.
Hunt Club Village Retail and Dining Additions
Hunt Club Village is expanding its Cranbourne East neighbourhood shopping centre with new pad-site retail, dining and convenience additions. Current works include an El Jannah Charcoal Chicken drive-through, My Kebabz and a 7-Eleven fuel station, with the new tenancies reported as on track to open in late September 2026. The centre is anchored by Woolworths, Aldi and Dan Murphy's and serves the growing City of Casey trade area.
Cranbourne Line Upgrade
Major $1 billion upgrade including 8km track duplication between Cranbourne and Dandenong (completed February 2022), new Merinda Park Station (opened), removal of level crossings, and infrastructure to support 10-minute train services. Creates capacity for 121,000 additional passengers per week. Track duplication complete, with final level crossings at Webster Street and Camms Road to be removed by 2025. Will be the first level crossing-free line on Melbourne's network.
Cranbourne Park Shopping Centre Expansion
$120 million expansion and revitalisation of Cranbourne Park Shopping Centre, delivering around 12,500 sqm of new retail including Target, a large-format Coles, ~55 specialty stores, a gym and commercial space. Works were completed in 2015. The centre is currently co-owned by Vicinity Centres (50%) and IP Generation (50%) and managed by Vicinity Centres.
The Orange Door Cranbourne
The largest Orange Door access point in Victoria, providing integrated family violence and child wellbeing services to the southern Melbourne community. Offers free support including risk assessments, safety planning, crisis assistance, and connections to ongoing support services for families experiencing family violence or needing help with child and family wellbeing.
Cranbourne West Shopping Centre
A 100% leased neighbourhood shopping centre anchored by Woolworths supermarket with 15 specialty stores including Jetts Fitness, medical centre and pharmacy. Located 50 kilometres from Melbourne CBD with over 11,000 sqm of surplus development land for future expansion.
Summerset Cranbourne North
Summerset's first Australian retirement village, featuring 161 villas, 34 serviced apartments, and a 72-bed care centre. The development includes a main village centre with resort-style amenities such as an indoor pool, gym, cinema, and cafe. As of May 2026, the main building has recently opened for residents following an investor showcase on May 1st, while additional residential stages continue through the year.
11,466 residents of Cranbourne are employed, from a labour force of 12,537. Unemployment sits at 8.5%, with participation at 68.3%. Weighted for its industry mix, the area's sectors are forecast to grow about 6.0% nationally over five years. That reflects industry composition only and makes no allowance for local population growth. Unemployment and labour force come from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, updated quarterly; the industry and occupation profile is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
The local workforce in Cranbourne is skilled, with particularly strong representation in the construction sector. The unemployment rate is 8.5%, and employment grew by an estimated 4.4% over the last year. There were 11,466 employed residents as of March 2026, and the unemployment rate was 3.8% higher than the 4.8% rate in Greater Melbourne, indicating potential for labor market improvements. Workforce participation is close to the 70.2% recorded in Greater Melbourne. According to Census data, a modest 13.5% of the workforce worked from home, though these figures may have been influenced by COVID-19 restrictions.
Health care & social assistance, manufacturing, and construction represent the primary employment sectors for local residents. The area is highly specialized in manufacturing, employing workers at a rate 1.9 times the regional average. Conversely, professional & technical services employ only 4.3% of the local workforce, compared to 10.1% in Greater Melbourne. Comparing the number of working residents to the local job count indicates that this mostly residential area offers a limited number of local employment opportunities. According to AreaSearch's evaluation of SALM and ABS statistics for the year ending March 2026, local employment grew by 4.4% and the size of the labor force also rose by 4.4%, leaving the level of unemployment practically unchanged. Over the identical timeframe, Greater Melbourne saw employment rise by 2.1%, the labor force expand by 2.3%, and the unemployment rate increase by 0.2 percentage points. National employment projections from Jobs and Skills Australia, released in May-25, provide context for future local demand. These five and ten-year forecasts have been applied to the local workforce composition to project potential growth. Nationally, employment is projected to grow by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, though individual industries vary. Applying these sector-specific forecasts to the industry mix of Cranbourne suggests local employment could grow by 6.0% over five years and 12.8% over ten years, representing a basic weighted calculation for illustration that does not incorporate local population projections.
Frequently Asked Questions - Employment
Median household income in Cranbourne is $1,477 a week (about $77,000 a year), with median personal income at $707 a week. ATO records put median taxable income at $48,393 a year against an average of $54,399. Household income is from the 2021 Census; taxable income is from ATO Taxation Statistics for the latest financial year available, indexed forward using the ABS Wage Price Index.
Detail
Based on the latest ATO postcode statistics for the 2023 financial year published by AreaSearch, taxpayers in the Cranbourne SA2 recorded a median income of $48,393 and an average income of $54,399. These figures are below the national averages and compare to a median of $57,688 and an average of $75,164 in Greater Melbourne. Adjusting for a 9.62% increase in the Wage Price Index since the 2023 financial year, current estimates as of March 2026 stand at roughly $53,048 for the median and $59,632 for the average. In the 2021 Census, household, family, and individual incomes in Cranbourne ranked modestly, falling within the 29th to 34th percentiles.
Income distribution data shows that 36.5% of the local population (8,294 individuals) falls into the $1,500 - 2,999 weekly income bracket, which is comparable to the 32.8% of residents in this bracket across the wider region. Housing affordability is a significant concern, with residents retaining only 81.4% of their income, placing the area in the 31st percentile.
Frequently Asked Questions - Income
Cranbourne had 7,204 occupied dwellings at the 2021 Census, 80% detached houses and 4% apartments. 42% are owned with a mortgage, 35% rented and 24% owned outright. At that Census the median rent was $342 a week and the median mortgage repayment $1,627 a month. Rent absorbs 23.2% of household income here and mortgage repayments 25.4%. Dwelling stock, tenure and housing costs are 2021 Census measures — the only source that counts dwellings at this boundary size.
Detail
According to the latest Census, the housing stock in Cranbourne consisted of 80.1% separate houses and 19.8% alternative dwellings like semi-detached homes and apartments, compared to 67.9% houses and 32.1% alternative dwellings across metropolitan Melbourne. The home ownership rate in Cranbourne was 23.8%, which was lower than metropolitan Melbourne, with the remaining properties being mortgaged (41.5%) or rented (34.7%). The median monthly mortgage payment of $1,627 and the median weekly rent of $342 were both lower than the metropolitan Melbourne averages of $2,000 and $390. On a national level, Cranbourne's mortgage costs are lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and weekly rents are below the national average of $375.
Frequently Asked Questions - Housing
Cranbourne counted 7,204 households at the 2021 Census, an estimated 7,693 today, averaging 2.7 people each. 33% are couples with children, against 21% couples without children. 24% of households are people living alone, and families average 1.7 children. Household and family composition is measured only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Families make up the majority of households at 72.0%, consisting of couples with children at 33.4%, couples without children at 21.0%, and single parent families at 15.9%. Non-family households account for the remaining 28.0%, with single person households representing 24.1% and group houses making up 3.9%. The median size of households in the area is 2.7 individuals, which is slightly larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.
Frequently Asked Questions - Households
16.9% of adults in Cranbourne hold a university qualification, including 11.3% with a bachelor degree and 4.0% with postgraduate qualifications. A further 26.6% hold a vocational qualification. 8 schools serve the area, with 3,742 enrolment places and an average ICSEA of 967 against a national benchmark of 1,000. Qualifications come from the 2021 Census; school enrolments, ICSEA and results come from ACARA's current release.
Detail
Educational attainment levels in the area show that university qualification rates are 16.9%, which is lower than the 37.0% average across Greater Melbourne. This indicates potential areas for targeted educational support. Among these qualifications, bachelor degrees represent 11.3%, postgraduate qualifications account for 4.0%, and graduate diplomas make up 1.6%. Vocational and technical skills are common, with 38.0% of residents aged 15 and over holding qualifications, consisting of advanced diplomas at 11.4% and certificates at 26.6%. A high proportion of the population is engaged in study, with 31.6% of residents currently enrolled in an educational institution.
This group comprises 10.9% in primary school, 8.0% in high school, and 4.0% undertaking tertiary studies.
Frequently Asked Questions - Education
Schools Detail
Public transport in Cranbourne reaches 77 stops on 16 routes, timetabled for about 6,400 services a week. The typical home sits about 290 m from its nearest stop. Buses carry the largest share of public transport commuters. Households keep an average of 1.5 vehicles. Stop and service counts are built from operators' published GTFS timetables and refresh with each timetable release; vehicle ownership is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
An analysis of public transport indicates there are 77 active transport stops in Cranbourne, consisting of various bus options. These stops are serviced by 16 different routes, which support 6,382 passenger trips each week. Transport access is rated as good, with residents living an average of 288 meters from their nearest stop. As Cranbourne is predominantly residential, most workers commute out of the area, with 89% traveling by car and 6% by train. The average number of vehicles per household is 1.5, which is higher than the regional average. A relatively low 13.5% of residents worked from home, according to the 2021 Census, which may reflect conditions during the pandemic.
Across all active routes, there is an average service frequency of 911 daily trips, which averages out to approximately 82 weekly trips for each transport stop.
Frequently Asked Questions - Transport
Transport Stops Detail
68.8% of residents in Cranbourne report no long-term health condition. 6.8% need daily assistance with core activities, and 46.8% hold private health cover. The standardised death rate runs at 4.9 per 1,000 residents. Health conditions, assistance needs and insurance are 2021 Census measures; the death rate comes from current ABS releases.
Detail
According to AreaSearch's evaluation of mortality rates and the prevalence of chronic health issues, health outcomes in Cranbourne are below average. While typical health issues among the broader community are average, they are higher than the national standard for older age cohorts. The rate of private health insurance is low, covering approximately 47% of the population (~10,635 people), compared to 56.7% in Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.7%. Mental health conditions and asthma are the most common medical issues locally, affecting 9.2% and 8.5% of the population, respectively.
Meanwhile, 68.8% of residents reported having no long-term health conditions, compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. The prevalence of chronic health issues among working-age residents is above average. Residents aged 65 and over make up 13.8% of the local population (3,145 people), which is lower than the 15.0% average for Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes for seniors present some issues, though they rank more favorably nationally than the local population as a whole.
Frequently Asked Questions - Health
36.2% of Cranbourne residents were born overseas and 32.9% speak a language other than English at home, more culturally diverse than 79% of areas nationally. The largest reported ancestries are English (22.6%) and Australian (21.7%). Ancestry, language and country of birth are counted only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Cranbourne has a high level of cultural diversity, with 36.2% of residents born outside Australia and 32.9% speaking a non-English language at home. Christianity is the primary religion, followed by 39.3% of the population. The most significant overrepresentation is in the Other religious category, which accounts for 4.5% of local residents compared to 2.3% in Greater Melbourne. Regarding parental country of birth, the main ancestries represented locally are English at 22.6%, Australian at 21.7%, and Other at 19.3%. There is also a notable concentration of specific ethnic backgrounds: Samoan ancestry is represented at 1.3% in Cranbourne compared to 0.3% regionally, Sri Lankan ancestry is at 0.8% compared to 0.8% regionally, and Indian ancestry stands at 5.3% compared to 4.2% regionally.
Frequently Asked Questions - Diversity
The median resident of Cranbourne is 35, younger than 79% of areas nationally. 28.6% of residents are aged 15 to 34. Age cohorts are not raw Census counts: the Census split is re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections.
Detail
The median age in Cranbourne is 35 years, which is slightly younger than the median of 37 in Greater Melbourne and the national median of 38. The 55 - 64 age group is well represented at 11.3% compared to Greater Melbourne, while the 75 - 84 age group is less common at 4.4%. Since 2021, the 35 to 44 age bracket has risen from 14.2% to 15.3% of the population, while the 45 to 54 bracket has dropped from 12.5% to 11.8%. Demographic projections for 2041 indicate that the 45 to 54 cohort will grow by 977 individuals (36%), rising from 2,681 to 3,659, whereas the 0 to 4 cohort is expected to increase by a modest 4% (60 individuals).
Frequently Asked Questions - Age
Data & MethodBoundaries, Sources & Method for Cranbourne
9 of 14 data sections on this page were updated within the last 12 months — the newest current to Aug 2026.
Everything is aggregated to the SA2 boundary shown above, on a 2021 Census baseline. Only 3 sections — housing, households and cultural diversity — still wait on the 2026 Census.
The ledger — source, cycle and currency by section
| Section | Source & update cycle | Currency |
|---|---|---|
| Updated within the last 12 months 9 sections | ||
| Population | ABS, GNAF, Geoscience Australia Annual (ABS ERP) | May 2026 3 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release) and updated with new dwellings from GNAF address data. Current to May 2026, with the 2021 Census supplying the small-area baseline. | ||
| Age profile | ABS, Geoscience Australia, State governments Annual | May 2026 3 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Age cohorts are re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections, current to May 2026. Each cohort is held as a Census baseline and a current estimate. | ||
| Development & approvals | ABS, GNAF Monthly (ABS approvals) | Jun 2026 2 months ago headline measures · May 2026 baseline |
| Property sales & rents | Valuer General, Rental Board, ABS Weekly sales, quarterly rents | Aug 2026 this month all 21 measures |
| Sales from the state Valuer General register, refreshed weekly, and rents from quarterly rental bond lodgements. Both are read live each time this page loads, current to Aug 2026. | ||
| Infrastructure projects | Infrastructure Australia, State agencies, Local governments Daily | Jul 2026 last month all 12 projects tracked here |
| Project pipeline maintained continuously from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, local government and public announcements. Records are added and revised daily; this area was last updated Jul 2026. | ||
| Employment | ABS, DEWR, JSA Quarterly (ABS SALM) | Mar 2026 5 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Unemployment and labour force from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, current to Mar 2026. The growth outlook applies Department of Employment (now Jobs and Skills Australia) forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to the local industry mix, so it measures sector composition rather than local expansion and makes no allowance for population growth. Job demand comes from the same agency via its Internet Vacancy Index; industry and occupation structure from the 2021 Census. | ||
| Education | ABS, ACARA Annual (ACARA) | Aug 2026 this month headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Transport | ABS, State Transport Departments Each timetable release | Jul 2026 last month headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Services & amenities | Provider directories, ACECQA Continuous | Jul 2026 last month all 14 measures |
| Annual and financial-year sources 2 sections | ||
| Income | ABS, ATO Annual (ATO) | FY 2023 3 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| ATO taxable income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index. Census household income provides the distribution detail. | ||
| Health | ABS, ATO Annual | 2024 2 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Census-measured — next update: 2026 Census 3 sections No more current small-area source exists for these, so they are labelled as Census-measured rather than implied to be current. | ||
| Housing | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 30 measures |
| Households | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 18 measures |
| Cultural diversity | ABS, Geoscience Australia 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 44 measures |
"Currency" is the most recent release feeding that section. Where the Census supplies the structural baseline underneath a current headline figure, the row says so.
How the numbers are built
Population
The Census provides the small-area baseline, aggregated from mesh blocks to this boundary. It is then re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release), and new dwellings built since Census night are counted from address data — 474 validated new addresses here. The headline figure is therefore a current estimate for May 2026, not a 2021 count (21,281 at the 2021 Census → 22,726 now). Annual growth rates are compound (CAGR), not simple averages.
Age profile
Cohort shares are not raw Census counts. Every cohort is held as a pair — the Census baseline and a current estimate — and the split is re-based using ERP and state population projections, current to May 2026. Median age is the Census median plus modelled change since. Charts that show both are labelled "2021 Census vs Current Estimate".
Property sales
Sourced from the state valuation authority's sales register — current, not Census, and refreshed weekly. Medians are calculated from settled transactions in the period shown; periods with very low transaction counts are flagged or suppressed, because a handful of sales can move a median substantially.
Rents
Derived from state rental bond lodgement data, by dwelling type and bedroom count. Bonds are lodged at the start of a new tenancy, so this reflects new lettings, not the whole rented stock.
Development & infrastructure
Building approvals come from current ABS releases; development applications are collected from council and state planning portals; the infrastructure pipeline is compiled from Infrastructure Australia and local government sources. Applications are matched to this boundary by address or coordinates, so very recent lodgements may not yet appear.
Employment & income
Industry and occupation structure comes from the Census, but the headline labour-market indicators do not. Unemployment and labour force are derived from ABS Small Area Labour Markets (quarterly). The employment outlook applies Department of Employment forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to this area's own industry mix (the agency is now Jobs and Skills Australia), as does the Internet Vacancy Index used for job demand. Because it is weighted on industry composition alone, that outlook carries no allowance for local population growth — in fast-growing areas the real rise in local jobs will typically be higher. Income combines Census household income with ATO taxable-income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index.
Education, transport & amenities
School enrolments, ICSEA and performance come from ACARA's current release, not the Census. Public transport stops and service frequency are derived from GTFS timetable feeds published by state transport departments. Services and amenities are proximity and count scores built from provider directories, refreshed on their own cycle. The Census contributes only the travel-to-work and qualification measures.
Rankings and benchmarks. Where we rank this area, the comparison set is every area of the same boundary type — suburbs against suburbs, SA2s against SA2s. Benchmarks compare this area against its greater capital city region and the national figure for the same measure and period.
Limits worth knowing. Small areas carry larger error margins, and the ABS introduces small random adjustments to Census counts to protect confidentiality — so totals may not sum exactly. Estimates re-based from regional data describe the area's expected trajectory, not a direct count of it. Figures are indicative for research and are not financial, planning or valuation advice.
Cross-check us. The Census baseline for this boundary is at ABS 2021 Census QuickStats (212031300). QuickStats reports 2021 only — the figures on this page are more current wherever the ledger shows a later date.