Narre Warren South - East

An assessment of population growth drivers in Narre Warren South - East reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Narre Warren South - East's population was approximately 13,022 as of May 2026, a decrease of 130 people (1.0%) since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 13,152. This change is inferred from ABS estimated resident population data of 13,022 in June 2025 and address validation since the Census date. The population density was around 2,093 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed approximately 69.8% of overall population gains during recent periods. AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 for each SA2 area.

For areas not covered, AreaSearch uses VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on latest annual ERP population numbers, the area is projected to grow by 1,537 persons to 2041, reflecting an increase of 11.8% over the 16-year period.

The level of residential development activity in Narre Warren South - East is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Narre Warren South - East has granted approximately 3 residential approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling 19 homes. As of FY26, 4 approvals have been recorded. The area's population decline in recent years suggests that new supply has likely met demand, providing good choice for buyers with an average dwelling value of $244,000, below the regional average. This financial year, $855,000 in commercial approvals have been registered, indicating a residential-dominated area.

Compared to Greater Melbourne, Narre Warren South - East has lower building activity, which typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings. This is also below national averages, reflecting the area's maturity and possible planning constraints. Recent development consists entirely of detached dwellings, maintaining the suburb's suburban identity with family homes suited for buyers seeking space. By 2041, Narre Warren South - East is projected to gain 1,537 residents.

At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially increasing buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Narre Warren South - East has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 31stth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified eight projects that may affect the region. Notable projects include Hunt Club Village Shopping Centre Expansion, Casey Central Town Centre Precinct Structure Plan, Hunt Club Estate, and Kala Primary School (formerly Casey Central Primary School - interim name). The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Narre Warren South - East has been broadly consistent with national averages

Narre Warren South - East has a skilled workforce with notable representation in the construction sector. The unemployment rate was 4.8% as of December 2025. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 3.7%.

In December 2025, 7,522 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate matching Greater Melbourne's 4.8%, and workforce participation at 74.0%. Moderate home workership was observed, with 22.7% of residents working from home. Key industries for employment include construction, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. Manufacturing shows notable concentration, with employment levels at 1.5 times the regional average.

Professional & technical services are under-represented, at 5.4% compared to Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. Limited local employment opportunities were indicated by Census data comparison of working population vs resident population. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment increased by 3.7%, labour force by 4.6%, leading to a 0.9 percentage point rise in unemployment. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment growth of 2.4% and labour force growth of 2.8%, with a 0.3 percentage point rise in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying rates across industry sectors. Applying these projections to Narre Warren South - East's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 12.8% over ten years.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

In AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2023, Narre Warren South - East SA2's median income among taxpayers is $55,614. The average income in this area is $64,149. This is lower than the national average. In Greater Melbourne, the median income is $57,688 and the average is $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Narre Warren South - East SA2 would be approximately $60,964 (median) and $70,320 (average) as of March 2026. According to census data, household incomes rank at the 85th percentile ($2,352 weekly), while personal income ranks at the 42nd percentile. The earnings profile shows that 37.3% of individuals earn between $1,500 and $2,999 per week (4,857 individuals). This is similar to the surrounding region where 32.8% occupy this earnings band. The area demonstrates affluence with 33.7% earning over $3,000 per week, supporting premium retail and service offerings. Housing accounts for 13.5% of income. Strong earnings rank residents within the 87th percentile for disposable income. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Narre Warren South - East is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

As of the latest Census, dwelling structures in Narre Warren South - East were 96.8% houses and 3.2% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Narre Warren South - East was 30.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 58.2% and rented dwellings at 11.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,000, aligning with Melbourne metro's average, while the median weekly rent figure was $430 compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Narre Warren South - East's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Narre Warren South - East features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households compose 90.1% of all households, including 58.1% couples with children, 20.6% couples without children, and 10.9% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 9.9%, with lone person households at 8.7% and group households comprising 1.2%. The median household size is 3.4 people, which exceeds the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Narre Warren South - East performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

The area's university qualification rate is 22.5%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 15.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.4%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 33.6% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (12.6%) and certificates (21.0%). Educational participation is high, with 34.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 11.5% in secondary education, 10.7% in primary education, and 5.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Narre Warren South - East has 41 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by five different routes that collectively facilitate 1,222 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 240 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to its residential nature, and cars remain the dominant mode of transportation at 93%. On average, there are 2.2 vehicles per dwelling in the area, which is higher than the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, 22.7% of residents work from home, a figure that may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

Across all routes, service frequency averages 174 trips per day, equating to approximately 29 weekly trips per individual stop.

Narre Warren South - East's residents are extremely healthy with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Narre Warren South - East. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence were low across both young and old age cohorts.

Private health cover was relatively low at approximately 51% of the total population (~6,667 people), compared to 56.7% across Greater Melbourne. The most common medical conditions were asthma and mental health issues, impacting 7.5% and 6.4% of residents respectively. 73.9% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. The under-65 population demonstrated better than average health outcomes. The area had 13.0% of residents aged 65 and over (1,691 people), lower than the 15.0% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors were above average, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Narre Warren South - East was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Narre Warren South-East has a high level of cultural diversity, with 36.6% of its population born overseas and 34.5% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Narre Warren South-East, making up 45.7% of the population. However, Islam is notably overrepresented, comprising 12.0%, which is significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 5.6%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups are Other at 20.7%, Australian at 20.5%, and English at 19.1%. Some ethnic groups have notable representation: Sri Lankan at 1.7% (compared to 0.8% regionally), Hungarian at 0.6% (vs 0.3%), and Dutch at 1.9% (vs 1.2%).

Narre Warren South - East's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Narre Warren South - East's median age is 36 years, nearly matching Greater Melbourne's average of 37. This is slightly below the Australian median of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Narre Warren South - East has a higher proportion of residents aged 15-24 (19.2%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (9.8%). The 15-24 age group is significantly higher than the national average of 12.7%. Between the 2021 Census and the present, the 55 to 64 age group has increased from 12.1% to 13.9%, while the 15 to 24 cohort has risen from 17.5% to 19.2%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 age group has decreased from 17.0% to 14.9%, and the 5 to 14 age group has dropped from 15.7% to 13.6%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Narre Warren South - East's age profile will change significantly. The 75 to 84 age cohort is projected to grow by 89%, adding 479 residents to reach 1,017. Residents aged 65 and above are expected to drive 65% of population growth, indicating demographic aging trends. Conversely, the 0 to 4 and 35 to 44 age groups are projected to experience population declines.