Narre Warren South - East

An assessment of population growth drivers in Narre Warren South - East reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Narre Warren South - East's population is around 13,033 as of Feb 2026. This reflects a decrease of 119 people (0.9%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 13,152 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 13,030 from the ABS as of June 2024 and address validation since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 2,095 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which contributed approximately 66.2% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Moving forward with demographic trends, an above-median population growth of statistical areas analysed by AreaSearch is projected, with the area expected to grow by 1,541 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 11.8% in total over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Narre Warren South - East is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Narre Warren South - East has recorded around 3 residential properties granted approval per year, totalling 19 homes over the past 5 financial years. So far in FY-26, 3 approvals have been recorded. With population declining over recent years, new supply has likely been keeping up with demand, offering good choice to buyers, while new homes are being built at an average value of $244,000—below the regional average—suggesting more affordable housing options for buyers. Additionally, $855,000 in commercial approvals have been registered this financial year, demonstrating the area's residential nature.

When measured against Greater Melbourne, Narre Warren South - East records markedly lower building activity. This constrained new construction usually reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings. This is also below average nationally, reflecting the area's maturity and pointing to possible planning constraints. Meanwhile, recent development has been entirely comprised of detached dwellings, sustaining the area's suburban identity with a concentration of family homes suited to buyers seeking space.

Population forecasts indicate Narre Warren South - East will gain 1,538 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Narre Warren South - East has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 30thth percentile nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total, 7 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include Hunt Club Village Shopping Centre Expansion, Hunt Club Estate, Kala Primary School (formerly Casey Central Primary School - interim name), and WT Business Park, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Narre Warren South - East has been broadly consistent with national averages

Narre Warren South - East features a skilled workforce, with the construction sector a particular standout in terms of representation, an unemployment rate of 4.8%, and 3.7% in estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 7,522 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is in line with Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%, and workforce participation is fairly standard (74.5% compared to Greater Melbourne's 71.3%). Based on Census responses, a moderate 22.7% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

The key industries of employment among residents are construction, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. The area demonstrates a particularly notable concentration in manufacturing, with employment levels at 1.5 times the regional average. On the other hand, professional & technical services are under-represented, with only 5.4% of Narre Warren South - East's workforce compared to 10.1% in Greater Melbourne. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of the Census working population versus the resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, over the 12 months to December 2025, employment increased by 3.7% while the labour force increased by 4.6%, resulting in unemployment rising by 0.9 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 2.4% and labour force growth of 2.8%, with a 0.3 percentage point rise. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Narre Warren South - East. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Narre Warren South - East's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 12.8% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

As per AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released for FY-23, the Narre Warren South - East SA2's median income among taxpayers is $55,614, with an average of $64,149. This is lower than average on a national basis, and compares to Greater Melbourne's median of $57,688 and average of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $60,202 (median) and $69,441 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals household incomes rank exceptionally at the 85th percentile ($2,352 weekly), though personal income ranks lower at the 42nd percentile. The earnings profile shows the $1,500 - 2,999 earnings band captures 37.3% of the community (4,861 individuals), reflecting patterns seen in the surrounding region where 32.8% similarly occupy this range. The district demonstrates considerable affluence with 33.7% earning over $3,000 per week, supporting premium retail and service offerings. Housing accounts for 13.5% of income while strong earnings rank residents within the 87th percentile for disposable income and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Narre Warren South - East is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Dwelling structure within Narre Warren South - East, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 96.8% houses and 3.2% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Narre Warren South - East was in line with that of Melbourne metro, at 30.3%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (58.2%) or rented (11.4%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was in line with the Melbourne metro average at $2,000, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $430, compared to Melbourne metro's $2,000 and $390. Nationally, Narre Warren South - East's mortgage repayments are higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially above the national figure of $375.

Narre Warren South - East features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 90.1% of all households, comprising 58.1% couples with children, 20.6% couples without children, and 10.9% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 9.9%, with lone person households at 8.7% and group households comprising 1.2% of the total. The median household size of 3.4 people is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Narre Warren South - East performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (22.5%) substantially below the Greater Melbourne average of 37.0%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 15.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.4%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 33.6% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (12.6%) and certificates (21.0%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 34.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.5% in secondary education, 10.7% in primary education, and 5.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 41 active transport stops operating within Narre Warren South - East, comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 5 individual routes, collectively providing 1,222 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 240 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 93%. Vehicle ownership averages 2.2 per dwelling, which is above the regional average. Some 22.7% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 174 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 29 weekly trips per individual stop.

Narre Warren South - East's residents are extremely healthy with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Narre Warren South-East, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Both young and old age cohorts see low prevalence of common health conditions, and the rate of private health cover is relatively low at approximately 51% of the total population (~6,672 people), compared to 56.7% across Greater Melbourne.

The most common medical conditions in the area are asthma and mental health issues, impacting 7.5% and 6.4% of residents, respectively, while 73.9% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. The under-65 population demonstrates better than average health outcomes. The area has 13.4% of residents aged 65 and over (1,739 people), which is lower than the 15.1% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Narre Warren South - East was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Narre Warren South - East scores highly on cultural diversity, with 36.6% of its population born overseas and 34.5% speaking a language other than English at home. The main religion in Narre Warren South - East is Christianity, which makes up 45.7% of the people. However, the most apparent overrepresentation is in Islam, which comprises 12.0% of the population, substantially higher than the Greater Melbourne average of 5.6%.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Narre Warren South - East are Other, comprising 20.7% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 14.6%, Australian, comprising 20.5% of the population, and English, comprising 19.1% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Sri Lankan is notably overrepresented at 1.7% of Narre Warren South - East (vs 0.8% regionally), Hungarian at 0.6% (vs 0.3%) and Dutch at 1.9% (vs 1.2%).

Narre Warren South - East's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

At 36 years, Narre Warren South - East's median age nearly matches the Greater Melbourne average of 37 and is similarly modestly under the Australian median of 38. Relative to Greater Melbourne, Narre Warren South - East has a higher concentration of 15 - 24 residents (19.0%) but fewer 25 - 34 year-olds (9.0%). This 15 - 24 concentration is well above the national 12.5%. Since the 2021 Census, the 55 to 64 age group has grown from 12.1% to 13.7% of the population, while the 65 to 74 cohort increased from 6.6% to 8.1%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 17.0% to 14.9% and the 5 to 14 group dropped from 15.7% to 14.1%. Demographic modeling suggests Narre Warren South - East's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041. The 75 to 84 cohort shows the strongest projected growth at 89%, adding 469 residents to reach 999. Senior residents (65+) will drive 66% of population growth, underscoring demographic aging trends. On the other hand, the 0 to 4 and 35 to 44 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.