Narre Warren South - East

An assessment of population growth drivers in Narre Warren South - East reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Narre Warren South - East's population was approximately 13,033 as of November 2025. This figure reflects a decrease from the 2021 Census total of 13,152 people, indicating a change of -119 individuals (0.9%) since then. The estimated resident population of 13,030 in June 2024 and address validation were used to infer this figure. This results in a population density ratio of 2,095 persons per square kilometer, which is higher than the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration primarily drove recent population growth, contributing around 66.2% of overall gains.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusting using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels and applying growth rates by age group for years 2032 to 2041. Based on recent demographic trends and latest annual ERP population numbers, Narre Warren South - East is expected to grow by approximately 1,541 persons by the year 2041, reflecting an increase of around 11.8% over the 17-year period.

The level of residential development activity in Narre Warren South - East is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Narre Warren South - East has granted approximately three residential approvals per year over the past five financial years ending 30 June 2021, totalling nineteen homes. As of 30 June 2026, two approvals have been recorded in this financial year. The population decline in recent years suggests that new supply has likely kept pace with demand, providing good choice for buyers. The average expected construction cost value of new homes is $559,000.

This financial year, $855,000 in commercial approvals have been registered, reflecting the area's residential nature. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Narre Warren South - East has recorded lower building activity, which typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings. This is also below the national average, indicating the area's maturity and potential planning constraints. All recent development in the area has consisted of detached dwellings, maintaining its suburban identity with a concentration of family homes suited to buyers seeking space.

According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Narre Warren South - East is projected to gain 1,538 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Narre Warren South - East has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 30thth percentile nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified seven projects expected to impact the region. Notable projects include Hunt Club Village Shopping Centre Expansion, Hunt Club Estate, Kala Primary School (formerly Casey Central Primary School - interim name), and WT Business Park. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Narre Warren South - East has been broadly consistent with national averages

Narre Warren South - East has a skilled workforce with notable representation in the construction sector. Its unemployment rate was 4.5% as of June 2021, which is 0.1% lower than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 3.4%. As of June 2025, 7,627 residents are in work and workforce participation is 68.4%, slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Key industries of employment among residents include construction, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. Manufacturing shows particularly notable concentration with employment levels at 1.5 times the regional average.

However, professional & technical services are under-represented at 5.4%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. Over the 12 months to June 2025, employment increased by 3.4% while labour force increased by 4.4%, resulting in an unemployment rise of 0.9 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 3.5% and a 0.5 percentage point rise in unemployment. State-level data to Nov-25 shows VIC employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%, compared to the national rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that Narre Warren South - East's local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 12.8% over ten years, based on industry-specific projections.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows Narre Warren South - East SA2 had a median taxpayer income of $52,605 and an average of $61,788. This is lower than the national average. Greater Melbourne had a median of $54,892 and an average of $73,761. By September 2025, adjusted for Wage Price Index growth of 12.16%, estimated incomes would be approximately $59,002 (median) and $69,301 (average). Census data ranks household incomes at the 85th percentile ($2,352 weekly), but personal income ranks lower at the 42nd percentile. The earnings profile shows that 37.3% of individuals earn between $1,500 and $2,999 weekly. This is similar to surrounding regions where 32.8% fall into this range. Notably, 33.7% earn over $3,000 per week, indicating affluence that supports premium retail and service offerings. Housing accounts for 13.5% of income. The area's strong earnings rank residents within the 87th percentile for disposable income. Its SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Narre Warren South - East is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Narre Warren South - East's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, were 96.8% houses and 3.2% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Melbourne metro's 91.5% houses and 8.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Narre Warren South - East was 30.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 58.2% and rented ones at 11.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,000, higher than Melbourne metro's $1,950. Median weekly rent in Narre Warren South - East was $430, compared to Melbourne metro's $386. Nationally, Narre Warren South - East's mortgage repayments were higher at $2,000 versus Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Narre Warren South - East features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 90.1% of all households, including 58.1% couples with children, 20.6% couples without children, and 10.9% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 9.9%, with lone person households at 8.7% and group households comprising 1.2%. The median household size is 3.4 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 3.2.

Narre Warren South - East performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

The area's university qualification rate is 22.5%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 15.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.4%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Vocational credentials are held by 33.6% of residents aged 15+, including advanced diplomas (12.6%) and certificates (21.0%). Educational participation is high, with 34.1% currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes secondary education (11.5%), primary education (10.7%), and tertiary education (5.5%).

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Narre Warren South - East has 41 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by five different routes that together facilitate 1,879 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents located an average of 240 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 268 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 45 weekly trips per individual stop.

Narre Warren South - East's residents are extremely healthy with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Narre Warren South - East.

Both young and old age cohorts have low prevalence of common health conditions. The rate of private health cover is relatively low at approximately 51% of the total population (~6,594 people). The most common medical conditions in the area are asthma and mental health issues, impacting 7.5 and 6.4% of residents respectively. 73.9% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 76.4% across Greater Melbourne. As of July 20XX (exact year not provided), the area has 12.5% of residents aged 65 and over (1,634 people), which is higher than the 9.6% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

Narre Warren South - East was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Narre Warren South - East has notable cultural diversity, with 36.6% of its population born overseas and 34.5% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Narre Warren South - East, comprising 45.7% of people. However, Islam is overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne, making up 12.0% of the population versus 11.1%.

The top three ancestry groups are Other (20.7%), Australian (20.5%), and English (19.1%). There are also significant differences in the representation of certain ethnic groups: Sri Lankan is overrepresented at 1.7% compared to 2.2% regionally, Hungarian at 0.6% versus 0.4%, and Dutch at 1.9% versus 1.3%.

Narre Warren South - East's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Narre Warren South - East's median age is 36 years, nearly matching Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years, which is slightly below the Australian median of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Narre Warren South - East has a higher proportion of residents aged 15-24 (18.9%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (9.2%). This concentration of 15-24 year-olds is significantly higher than the national average of 12.5%. Between the 2021 Census and the present, the proportion of residents aged 15 to 24 has increased from 17.5% to 18.9%, while the proportion of residents aged 55 to 64 has risen from 12.1% to 13.3%. Conversely, the proportion of residents aged 45 to 54 has decreased from 17.0% to 15.5%, and the proportion of residents aged 5 to 14 has dropped from 15.7% to 14.3%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests that Narre Warren South - East's age profile will change significantly. The 75-84 age cohort is projected to grow by 104%, adding 508 residents to reach a total of 999. Residents aged 65 and above will drive 71% of population growth, highlighting demographic aging trends. Conversely, the 0-4 and 35-44 age cohorts are expected to experience population declines.