Narre Warren South - East
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Narre Warren South - East reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Narre Warren South - East's population is 13,033 as of Aug 2025. This is a decrease from the 2021 Census figure of 13,152 people, representing a drop of 119 individuals (0.9%). The change is inferred from ABS estimated resident population figures and address validation since the Census date in Jun 2024. Population density stands at 2,095 persons per square kilometer, exceeding the national average assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed approximately 66.2% of recent population gains.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered, VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 are employed, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, the area is projected to grow by 1,541 persons based on latest population numbers, reflecting an increase of 11.8% over the 17-year period.

The level of residential development activity in Narre Warren South - East is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Narre Warren South - East has recorded approximately three residential properties granted approval each year over the past five financial years, totalling 19 homes. As of FY26, two approvals have been recorded. The population in the area has declined recently, indicating that new supply has likely kept pace with demand, offering good choice to buyers. New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $559,000.

This year, $855,000 in commercial approvals have been registered, demonstrating the area's residential nature. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Narre Warren South - East records lower building activity, which typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings. This is also below average nationally, suggesting maturity of the area and possible planning constraints. Recent development has consisted entirely of detached dwellings, sustaining the area's suburban identity with a concentration of family homes suited to buyers seeking space.

Population forecasts indicate Narre Warren South - East will gain 1,538 residents by 2041. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Narre Warren South - East has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified seven projects that may impact this region. Notable ones are Hunt Club Village Shopping Centre Expansion, Hunt Club Estate, St Peter's College - Clyde North Campus Expansion, and Kala Primary School (formerly Casey Central Primary School - interim name). The following list highlights those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Employment performance in Narre Warren South - East has been broadly consistent with national averages

Narre Warren South - East has a skilled workforce with the construction sector being prominently represented. The area's unemployment rate is 4.5%, with an estimated employment growth of 3.4% over the past year.

As of June 2025, 7,627 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 0.1% lower than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation is comparable to Greater Melbourne at 68.4%. Key industries include construction, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. Manufacturing employment is notably high, at 1.5 times the regional average.

However, professional & technical services are under-represented with only 5.4% of Narre Warren South - East's workforce compared to Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. Local employment opportunities seem limited as indicated by Census data. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment increased by 3.4% while labour force grew by 4.4%, leading to an unemployment rise of 0.9 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne had a 3.5% employment growth and a 0.5 percentage point increase in unemployment. State-level data from Sep-25 shows Victoria's employment grew by 1.08% year-on-year, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%. National employment forecasts suggest a 6.6% expansion over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Narre Warren South - East's industry mix estimates local growth of approximately 6.1%% over five years and 12.8% over ten years.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest data for Narre Warren South - East, released for the financial year ending June 2022, indicates a median income of $52,605 and an average income of $61,788 among taxpayers. This is lower than the national average. In Greater Melbourne, the median income was $54,892 with an average of $73,761 during the same period. Based on Wage Price Index growth from June 2022 to March 2025 (an estimated increase of 10.11%), current estimates suggest a median income of approximately $57,923 and an average income of around $68,035 in Narre Warren South - East as of March 2025. According to census data, household incomes rank at the 86th percentile ($2,352 weekly), while personal incomes rank lower at the 42nd percentile. The earnings profile shows that 37.3% of individuals earn between $1,500 and $2,999 per week (4,861 individuals). This is similar to the surrounding region where 32.8% fall into this earnings band. The district exhibits considerable affluence with 33.7% earning over $3,000 per week, supporting premium retail and service offerings. Housing expenses account for 13.5% of income. Strong earnings place residents within the 87th percentile for disposable income. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Narre Warren South - East is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Narre Warren South - East, as recorded in the latest Census, 96.8% of dwellings were houses with the remaining 3.2% being semi-detached, apartments, or other types. This is compared to Melbourne metro's figures of 91.5% houses and 8.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Narre Warren South - East stood at 30.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 58.2% and rented ones at 11.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,000, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $1,950. Median weekly rent in the area was $430, compared to Melbourne metro's $386. Nationally, Narre Warren South - East's median monthly mortgage repayments were higher at $2,000 versus Australia's average of $1,863, and median weekly rents were substantially higher at $430 compared to the national figure of $375.

Narre Warren South - East features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 90.1% of all households, including 58.1% couples with children, 20.6% couples without children, and 10.9% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 9.9%, with lone person households at 8.7% and group households making up 1.2%. The median household size is 3.4 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 3.2.

Narre Warren South - East performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

The area's university qualification rate is 22.5%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 15.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.4%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 33.6% of residents aged 15+ holding them; advanced diplomas account for 12.6% and certificates for 21.0%. Educational participation is high at 34.1%, including 11.5% in secondary education, 10.7% in primary education, and 5.5% in tertiary education.

Hillsmeade Primary School and Heritage College serve a total of 1,376 students. The area has balanced educational opportunities, with an ICSEA score of 1025, and includes one primary and one K-12 school. However, there are fewer school places per 100 residents (10.6) compared to the regional average (15.4), suggesting some students may attend schools in nearby areas.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Narre Warren South - East has 41 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 5 different routes that together facilitate 1,879 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of public transport in the area is deemed good, with residents on average being located 240 metres from their nearest stop.

On a daily basis, there are an average of 268 trips across all routes, which translates to approximately 45 weekly trips per individual stop.

Narre Warren South - East's residents are extremely healthy with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Narre Warren South - East.

Both young and old age cohorts exhibit low prevalence of common health conditions. The rate of private health cover is relatively low at approximately 51% of the total population (~6,594 people). The most common medical conditions in the area are asthma and mental health issues, impacting 7.5 and 6.4% of residents respectively. A total of 73.9% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 76.4% across Greater Melbourne. As of June 2021, the area has 12.5% of residents aged 65 and over (1,634 people), which is higher than the 9.6% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors are above average and broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

Narre Warren South - East is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Narre Warren South-East has notable cultural diversity with 36.6% of its population born overseas and 34.5% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Narre Warren South-East, comprising 45.7% of people. Islam is overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne, making up 12.0% versus 11.1%.

The top three ancestry groups are Other (20.7%), Australian (20.5%), and English (19.1%). Some ethnic groups show significant differences: Sri Lankan at 1.7% (regional average is 2.2%), Hungarian at 0.6% (regional average is 0.4%), and Dutch at 1.9% (regional average is 1.3%).

Narre Warren South - East's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Narre Warren South - East's median age is nearly 36 years, close to Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years, which is slightly below Australia's median of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Narre Warren South - East has a higher proportion of residents aged 15-24 (18.9%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (9.2%). This proportion of residents aged 15-24 is significantly higher than the national average of 12.5%. Between the 2021 Census and the present, the percentage of residents aged 15 to 24 has increased from 17.5% to 18.9%, while those aged 55 to 64 have risen from 12.1% to 13.3%. Conversely, the proportion of residents aged 45 to 54 has decreased from 17.0% to 15.5%, and those aged 5 to 14 have dropped from 15.7% to 14.3%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Narre Warren South - East's age profile will change significantly. The 75 to 84 age group is projected to grow by 104%, adding 508 residents to reach a total of 999. Residents aged 65 and above are expected to drive 71% of population growth, highlighting the trend of demographic aging. Meanwhile, the 0 to 4 and 35 to 44 age groups are projected to experience population declines.