Narre Warren South - East

An assessment of population growth drivers in Narre Warren South - East reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Narre Warren South - East's population was approximately 13,033 as of February 2026. This figure represents a decrease of 119 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 13,152. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 13,030 in June 2024 and address validation since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 2,095 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed approximately 66.2% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is using ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusting them employing weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, an above median population growth is projected for the area, with an expected increase of 1,541 persons by 2041, reflecting a total increase of 11.8% over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Narre Warren South - East is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Narre Warren South - East has received approximately 3 residential approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling 19 homes. In FY26, 3 approvals have been recorded to date. The population has declined in recent years, suggesting that new supply has kept pace with demand, providing good options for buyers. The average expected construction cost of new homes is $244,000, which is below the regional average, indicating more affordable housing choices.

This financial year, $855,000 in commercial approvals have been registered, reflecting the area's residential character. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Narre Warren South - East has lower building activity, which typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings. This is also below the national average, possibly due to planning constraints or the area's maturity. All recent development has consisted of detached dwellings, maintaining the suburb's suburban identity with a concentration of family homes.

By 2041, Narre Warren South - East is projected to gain 1,538 residents. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to keep up with population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Narre Warren South - East has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 30thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified seven projects that could affect this region. Notable ones are Hunt Club Village Shopping Centre Expansion, Hunt Club Estate, Kala Primary School (formerly Casey Central Primary School - interim name), and WT Business Park. The following list details those most relevant:.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Narre Warren South - East has been broadly consistent with national averages

Narre Warren South - East has a skilled workforce with notable representation in the construction sector. The unemployment rate was 4.6% as of September 2025. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 3.6%.

There were 7,461 residents employed by September 2025, with an unemployment rate matching Greater Melbourne's 4.7%. Workforce participation was 73.7%, slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's 71.0%. Census responses showed that 22.7% of residents worked from home. Key industries for employment were construction, health care & social assistance, and retail trade.

Manufacturing had a notably high concentration with employment levels at 1.5 times the regional average. However, professional & technical services were under-represented at 5.4%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. The area appeared to offer limited local employment opportunities based on Census data. Over the year to September 2025, employment increased by 3.6% while labour force grew by 4.4%, leading to a rise in unemployment of 0.8 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne had an employment growth of 3.0% and labour force growth of 3.3%, with a smaller increase in unemployment of 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 projected overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Narre Warren South - East's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 12.8% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes only.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

In AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2023, Narre Warren South - East SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $55,614 and an average of $64,149. This was lower than the national average. In Greater Melbourne, the median income was $57,688 and the average was $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $60,202 (median) and $69,441 (average). Census data shows household incomes rank at the 85th percentile ($2,352 weekly), but personal income ranks lower at the 42nd percentile. The earnings profile indicates that 37.3% of individuals earn between $1,500 and $2,999 weekly, reflecting patterns seen in surrounding regions where 32.8% occupy this range. The district demonstrates affluence with 33.7% earning over $3,000 per week, supporting premium retail and service offerings. Housing accounts for 13.5% of income. Residents rank highly for disposable income at the 87th percentile, and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Narre Warren South - East is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Narre Warren South - East's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 96.8% houses and 3.2% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Narre Warren South - East was at 30.3%, similar to Melbourne metro, with mortgaged dwellings at 58.2% and rented ones at 11.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,000, aligning with the Melbourne metro average, while the median weekly rent was $430, compared to Melbourne metro's $2,000 and $390 respectively. Nationally, Narre Warren South - East's mortgage repayments exceeded the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially higher than the national figure of $375.

Narre Warren South - East features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 90.1% of all households, including 58.1% couples with children, 20.6% couples without children, and 10.9% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 9.9%, with lone person households at 8.7% and group households comprising 1.2%. The median household size is 3.4 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Narre Warren South - East performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

The area's university qualification rate is 22.5%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 15.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.4%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 33.6% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 12.6% and certificates at 21.0%. Educational participation is high, with 34.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 11.5% in secondary, 10.7% in primary, and 5.5% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 34.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.5% in secondary education, 10.7% in primary education, and 5.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Narre Warren South - East has 41 operational public transport stops, all serving buses. These are covered by five distinct routes, offering a total of 1,222 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is deemed good, with residents' average proximity to the nearest stop being 240 meters. As a predominantly residential zone, most inhabitants travel outward for work, with cars being the primary mode of commuting at 93%. On average, there are 2.2 vehicles per dwelling, surpassing the regional norm. According to the 2021 Census, 22.7% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

Across all routes, an average of 174 trips is made daily, resulting in approximately 29 weekly trips per individual stop.

Narre Warren South - East's residents are extremely healthy with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics indicates strong performance in Narre Warren South - East based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Both young and old age cohorts show low prevalence of common health conditions.

The rate of private health cover is relatively low at approximately 51% of the total population (~6,672 people), compared to 56.7% across Greater Melbourne. The most common medical conditions in the area are asthma and mental health issues, impacting 7.5 and 6.4% of residents respectively. 73.9% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. The under-65 population demonstrates better than average health outcomes. The area has 13.4% of residents aged 65 and over (1,739 people), which is lower than the 15.1% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Narre Warren South - East was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Narre Warren South-East has high cultural diversity, with 36.6% of its population born overseas and 34.5% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the dominant religion in Narre Warren South-East, comprising 45.7%. Islam is overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne's average, making up 12.0%.

The top three ancestry groups are Other (20.7%), Australian (20.5%), and English (19.1%). Notably, Sri Lankan (1.7%), Hungarian (0.6%), and Dutch (1.9%) ethnicities have higher representation than the regional averages of 0.8%, 0.3%, and 1.2% respectively.

Narre Warren South - East's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Narre Warren South - East's median age is 36 years, nearly matching Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years, which is slightly below Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Narre Warren South - East has a higher proportion of residents aged 15-24 (19.0%), but fewer residents aged 25-34 (9.0%). This concentration of young adults is significantly higher than the national average of 12.5%. Between the 2021 Census and the present, the population aged 55 to 64 has increased from 12.1% to 13.7%, while those aged 65 to 74 have grown from 6.6% to 8.1%. Conversely, the proportion of residents aged 45 to 54 has decreased from 17.0% to 14.9%, and those aged 5 to 14 have dropped from 15.7% to 14.1%. By 2041, demographic projections suggest significant changes in Narre Warren South - East's age profile. The cohort aged 75 to 84 is expected to grow by 89%, adding 469 residents and reaching a total of 999. Residents aged 65 and above will drive 66% of population growth, highlighting the trend of demographic aging. Conversely, the cohorts aged 0-4 and 35-44 are projected to experience population declines.