Narre Warren - South West

Population growth drivers in Narre Warren - South West are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Narre Warren - South West's population was approximately 15,527 as of February 2026. From the 2021 Census, this shows an increase of 769 people, a 5.2% rise from the previously reported 14,758 inhabitants. This change is estimated based on the ABS's June 2024 figure of 15,452 and validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density is around 1,667 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, Narre Warren - South West has exhibited a compound annual growth rate of 1.0%, outperforming its SA3 area. Overseas migration accounted for approximately 69.3% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 for each SA2 area, and VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 for areas not covered by this data. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends project an above median growth, with the area expected to increase by 3,172 persons to 2041, reflecting a total increase of 19.9% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Narre Warren - South West recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Narre Warren South West has seen approximately 70 dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 354 homes from FY-21 to FY-25. As of FY-26, 35 approvals have been recorded. On average, one new resident per year per dwelling constructed has been observed since FY-21, indicating that new construction is meeting or exceeding demand. The average expected construction cost value for these dwellings is $226,000, which is below regional norms and offers more affordable housing options.

In FY-26, $42.9 million in commercial approvals have been registered, demonstrating strong commercial development momentum. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Narre Warren South West has about three-quarters the rate of new dwelling approvals per person, placing it among the 55th percentile nationally. Recent construction comprises 31.0% detached dwellings and 69.0% townhouses or apartments, reflecting a shift from the current housing mix of 87.0% houses. This change is due to reduced development site availability and evolving lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. The area has approximately 338 people per dwelling approval, indicating low density characteristics.

According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Narre Warren South West is projected to grow by 3,097 residents by 2041. Current development appears well-suited to future needs, supporting stable market conditions without extreme price pressure.

Narre Warren - South West has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 48thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 37 projects likely impacting the region. Notable initiatives include Narre Warren Police Station Upgrade, Casey Gardens Development, Stockland Minta Residential Estate, and Westfield Fountain Gate Ongoing Development. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Narre Warren - South West shows employment indicators that trail behind approximately 70% of regions assessed across Australia

Narre Warren - South West has a skilled workforce with manufacturing and industrial sectors strongly represented. The unemployment rate was 7.5% in September 2024, with an estimated employment growth of 3.2% over the past year. As of September 2025, 7,936 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 2.8% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%.

Workforce participation in Narre Warren - South West is somewhat below standard at 68.0%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 71.0%. According to Census responses, 18.9% of residents work from home. Employment among residents is concentrated in health care & social assistance, manufacturing, and construction. The area shows strong specialization in manufacturing with an employment share of 1.7 times the regional level.

Conversely, professional & technical services have lower representation at 5.3%, compared to the regional average of 10.1%. There are 0.8 workers for each resident, indicating a level of local employment opportunities above the norm. Over the 12 months to September 2025, employment increased by 3.2% while labour force increased by 4.6%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 1.2 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 3.0%, labour force growth of 3.3%, with unemployment rising by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these industry-specific projections to Narre Warren - South West's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.8% over ten years, based on simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

Narre Warren - South West SA2 had a median taxpayer income of $51,844 and an average of $59,799 in financial year 2023, according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. This was lower than the national average, with Greater Melbourne's median income being $57,688 and average income being $75,164. By September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $56,121 (median) and $64,732 (average), based on an 8.25% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2023. Census data indicated that household, family, and personal incomes in Narre Warren - South West ranked modestly, between the 31st and 42nd percentiles. The $1,500 - 2,999 earnings band captured 38.7% of the community (6,008 individuals), similar to regional levels at 32.8%. Housing affordability pressures were severe, with only 82.0% of income remaining, ranking at the 40th percentile.

Narre Warren - South West is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Narre Warren - South West's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 87.1% houses and 12.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compared to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Narre Warren - South West stood at 23.9%, with the rest being mortgaged (41.2%) or rented (34.9%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,738, lower than Melbourne metro's $2,000 and Australia's average of $1,863. Median weekly rent in Narre Warren - South West was $360, compared to Melbourne metro's $390 and the national figure of $375.

Narre Warren - South West has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 75.7% of all households, including 36.9% couples with children, 23.0% couples without children, and 14.1% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 24.3%, with lone person households at 21.5% and group households making up 2.9%. The median household size is 2.8 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Educational outcomes in Narre Warren - South West fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 22.4%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 15.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.5%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 34.9% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (12.1%) and certificates (22.8%). Educational participation is high at 30.0%, comprising primary education (9.9%), secondary education (7.4%), and tertiary education (4.8%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 30.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.9% in primary education, 7.4% in secondary education, and 4.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Narre Warren - South West has 76 active public transport stops, all serving buses. These are covered by 19 different routes, offering a total of 3,189 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated good, with residents typically living 224 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outwards daily, predominantly by car (89%), with train use at 7%. Average vehicle ownership per dwelling stands at 1.5, above the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, 18.9% of residents work from home, potentially influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

The service frequency averages 455 trips per day across all routes, equating to roughly 41 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Narre Warren - South West is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Narre Warren - South West faces significant health challenges based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is very low at approximately 49% of the total population (around 7,592 people), compared to 56.7% across Greater Melbourne and the national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are asthma and mental health issues, impacting 7.5% and 7.3% of residents respectively, while 71.8% declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among the working-age population are broadly typical. The area has 13.6% of residents aged 65 and over (2,114 people), which is lower than the 15.1% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Narre Warren - South West is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Narre Warren-South West has a high cultural diversity, with 44.3% of its population born overseas and 44.0% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the main religion, making up 40.3%. Islam is overrepresented at 12.5%, compared to Greater Melbourne's average of 5.6%.

The top three ancestry groups are Other (23.9%), English (17.9%), and Australian (17.4%). Sri Lankan (2.5%) and Hungarian (0.7%) are notably overrepresented, as is Serbian (1.1%).

Narre Warren - South West's population is younger than the national pattern

Narre Warren - South West's median age is 35 years, which is slightly younger than Greater Melbourne's 37 and the national average of 38 years. The 25-34 age group constitutes 17.9%, higher than Greater Melbourne's percentage. Conversely, the 45-54 cohort makes up 10.4%, lower than Greater Melbourne's figure. Between 2021 and the present, the 35 to 44 age group has increased from 14.1% to 16.1%. During this period, the 45 to 54 cohort has decreased from 12.0% to 10.4%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic shifts in Narre Warren - South West. The 45-54 age group is projected to grow by 30%, adding 479 people from 1,608 to 2,088. Meanwhile, the 0-4 cohort is expected to increase modestly by 5% (50 people).