Narre Warren - South West

Population growth drivers in Narre Warren - South West are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Narre Warren - South West's population is approximately 15,499 as of November 2025. This figure represents a rise of 741 people, a 5.0% increase from the 2021 Census count of 14,758 residents. The change is inferred from an estimated resident population of 15,452 in June 2024 and an additional 190 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1,664 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, Narre Warren - South West has shown steady growth with a compound annual growth rate of 1.0%, outperforming its SA3 area. Overseas migration contributed approximately 69.3% of overall population gains in recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusting using a weighted aggregation method from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends indicate an above median growth rate, with the area projected to increase by 3,172 persons by 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a total increase of 20.2% over 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Narre Warren - South West recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Narre Warren - South West has seen approximately 70 dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 354 homes. As of FY26, 24 approvals have been recorded. On average, one new resident per year per dwelling constructed has been observed between FY21 and FY25. This suggests that new construction is meeting or exceeding demand, offering more housing options and enabling population growth.

The average expected construction cost value for new homes is $319,000, which is below regional norms, indicating more affordable housing options. In terms of commercial development, $42.9 million in approvals have been registered this financial year, demonstrating strong momentum. When compared to Greater Melbourne, Narre Warren - South West has around three-quarters the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and ranks among the 55th percentile nationally. Recent construction comprises 31.0% detached dwellings and 69.0% townhouses or apartments, reflecting a shift towards higher-density living to accommodate downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This marks a significant change from the current housing mix of 87.0% houses, likely due to reduced availability of development sites and shifting lifestyle demands.

Narre Warren - South West has approximately 338 people per dwelling approval, indicating characteristics of a low-density area. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, the region is expected to grow by 3,125 residents by 2041. Current development trends appear well-matched to future needs, supporting steady market conditions without extreme price pressure.

Narre Warren - South West has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 32ndth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 37 projects likely affecting the region. Notable initiatives include Narre Warren Police Station Upgrade, Casey Gardens Development, Stockland Minta Residential Estate, and Westfield Fountain Gate Ongoing Development. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Narre Warren - South West shows employment indicators that trail behind approximately 70% of regions assessed across Australia

Narre Warren - South West has a skilled workforce with strong representation in manufacturing and industrial sectors. The unemployment rate was 7.4% as of June 2021, with an estimated employment growth of 3.0% over the past year.

As of June 2025, 8,023 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 7.3%, which is 2.7% above Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation in Narre Warren - South West is 61.3%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Employment among residents is concentrated in health care & social assistance, manufacturing, and construction. The area shows strong specialization in manufacturing with an employment share of 1.7 times the regional level.

Conversely, professional & technical services have lower representation at 5.3% versus the regional average of 10.1%. The ratio of 0.8 workers per resident indicates a level of local employment opportunities above the norm. Over the 12 months to June 2025, employment increased by 3.0%, while labour force increased by 4.4%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 1.3 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 3.5%, labour force growth of 4.0%, with unemployment rising by 0.5 percentage points. State-level data from Nov-25 shows VIC employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, adding 41,950 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%. National employment forecasts from May-25 suggest national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Narre Warren - South West's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.8% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

The Narre Warren - South West SA2 had a median taxpayer income of $49,038 and an average of $57,599 in the financial year 2022, according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. This was lower than national averages, contrasting with Greater Melbourne's median income of $54,892 and average income of $73,761. By September 2025, based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16%, the estimated median income would be approximately $55,001 and the average income would be around $64,603. Census data indicates that household, family, and personal incomes in Narre Warren - South West rank modestly, between the 31st and 42nd percentiles. The $1,500 - 2,999 earnings band captures 38.7% of the community (5,998 individuals), slightly higher than the regional average of 32.8%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Narre Warren - South West, with only 82.0% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 40th percentile.

Narre Warren - South West is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Narre Warren - South West's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 87.1% houses and 12.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This is compared to Melbourne metro's 87.1% houses and 12.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Narre Warren - South West stood at 23.9%, with the rest being mortgaged (41.2%) or rented (34.9%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,738, lower than Melbourne metro's average of $1,900. Median weekly rent in Narre Warren - South West was $360, compared to Melbourne metro's $370. Nationally, mortgage repayments were lower at $1,738 compared to the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less at $360 than the national figure of $375.

Narre Warren - South West has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 75.7% of all households, including 36.9% couples with children, 23.0% couples without children, and 14.1% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 24.3%, with lone person households at 21.5% and group households making up 2.9%. The median household size is 2.8 people, smaller than Greater Melbourne's average of 2.9.

Educational outcomes in Narre Warren - South West fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 22.4%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 15.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.5%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 34.9% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (12.1%) and certificates (22.8%). Educational participation is high, with 30.0% currently enrolled in formal education: 9.9% in primary, 7.4% in secondary, and 4.8% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 30.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.9% in primary education, 7.4% in secondary education, and 4.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Narre Warren - South West has 78 active public transport stops. These are a mix of train and bus stations. They are served by 20 different routes which together provide 4,250 weekly passenger trips.

The area's transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 224 meters from the nearest stop. On average, there are 607 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 54 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Narre Warren - South West is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Narre Warren - South West shows better-than-average health outcomes with low prevalence of common conditions among its general population. However, it has higher rates among older and at-risk groups compared to national averages. Private health cover is very low in the area, at approximately 48% (around 7,486 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 53.6% and the national average of 55.3%.

The most prevalent conditions are asthma and mental health issues, affecting 7.5% and 7.3% of residents respectively. About 71.8% of residents report having no medical ailments, similar to Greater Melbourne's 72.0%. The area has 13.2% of residents aged 65 and over (around 2,045 people), lower than Greater Melbourne's 15.7%. Health outcomes among seniors require more attention compared to the broader population.

Narre Warren - South West is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Narre Warren - South West has a high level of cultural diversity, with 44.3% of its population born overseas and 44.0% speaking a language other than English at home. The predominant religion in Narre Warren - South West is Christianity, accounting for 40.3% of the population. However, Islam is notably overrepresented, comprising 12.5% compared to the Greater Melbourne average of 11.4%.

Regarding ancestry, the top three groups are Other (23.9%), English (17.9%), and Australian (17.4%). Certain ethnic groups show significant differences: Sri Lankan is slightly overrepresented at 2.5% versus 2.3%, Hungarian remains consistent at 0.7%, and Serbian is underrepresented at 1.1% compared to the regional average of 1.4%.

Narre Warren - South West's population is younger than the national pattern

Narre Warren - South West's median age is 35 years, which is slightly younger than Greater Melbourne's 37 and somewhat younger than the national average of 38 years. The age group of 25-34 years has strong representation at 18.4%, compared to Greater Melbourne, while the 45-54 cohort is less prevalent at 10.6%. Between 2021 and present, the 35-44 age group has grown from 14.1% to 15.8% of the population. Conversely, the 45-54 cohort has declined from 12.0% to 10.6%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes in Narre Warren - South West. The 65-74 age cohort is projected to increase significantly by 507 people, from 1,190 to 1,698, a growth of 43%. Meanwhile, the 0-4 age cohort is projected to grow modestly by 4%, an increase of 40 people.