Narre Warren - South West
Statistical Area - sa2

Population growth drivers in Narre Warren - South West are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of Aug 2025, Narre Warren - South West's population is approximately 15,502. This figure represents a growth of 744 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 14,758. The increase is inferred from ABS' estimated resident population of 15,452 as of June 2024 and an additional 191 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1,665 persons per square kilometer, higher than the national average assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, Narre Warren - South West has shown consistent growth with a compound annual growth rate of 1%. Overseas migration contributed significantly to this growth, accounting for approximately 69.3% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch's projections for each SA2 area are based on ABS/Geoscience Australia data released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future trends project an above median population growth for the area, with an expected increase of 3,172 persons by 2041 based on latest population numbers, reflecting a total increase of 20.1% over 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Narre Warren - South West recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Narre Warren - South West has received around 70 dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 354 homes from FY21 to FY25. As of FY26, 22 approvals have been recorded. On average, each new dwelling constructed between FY21 and FY25 accommodates one new resident per year. This pace of construction matches or exceeds demand, providing more housing options and potentially exceeding population growth expectations.

The average construction value for these dwellings is $319,000, which is below regional norms, offering affordable housing alternatives. In FY26, commercial approvals totalling $42.9 million have been registered, indicating robust commercial development activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Narre Warren - South West has approximately three-quarters the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and ranks among the 56th percentile nationally when assessed against other areas. Recent construction in Narre Warren - South West comprises 31.0% detached dwellings and 69.0% townhouses or apartments, reflecting a shift towards higher-density living to cater to downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This is a notable change from the current housing mix, which is predominantly houses (87.0%).

With around 338 people per dwelling approval, Narre Warren - South West exhibits characteristics of a low-density area. Projections indicate that Narre Warren - South West is expected to grow by 3,122 residents by 2041. Current development trends appear well-aligned with future needs, supporting stable market conditions without significant price pressures.

Narre Warren - South West has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 35 projects that may affect the region. Notable initiatives include Narre Warren Police Station Upgrade, Stockland Minta Residential Estate, Westfield Fountain Gate Ongoing Development, and Casey Gardens Development. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Narre Warren - South West shows employment indicators that trail behind approximately 70% of regions assessed across Australia

Narre Warren - South West has a skilled workforce with strong representation in manufacturing and industrial sectors. The unemployment rate was 7.4% as of June 2025.

There was an estimated employment growth of 3.0% over the past year. As of June 2025, 8,023 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 2.7% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation was somewhat lower at 61.3% compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Employment among residents is concentrated in health care & social assistance, manufacturing, and construction.

Manufacturing shows particularly strong specialization with an employment share of 1.7 times the regional level. Conversely, professional & technical services show lower representation at 5.3% versus the regional average of 10.1%. The ratio of 0.8 workers for each resident indicates a level of local employment opportunities above the norm. Over the 12 months to June 2025, employment increased by 3.0%, while labour force increased by 4.4%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 1.3 percentage points. By comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 3.5%. State-level data to Sep-25 shows VIC employment grew by 1.08% year-on-year, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%, compared to the national rate of 4.5%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 suggest national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Narre Warren - South West's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.0%% over five years and 12.8% over ten years.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

Narre Warren - South West had a median taxpayer income of $49,038 and an average of $57,599 in the financial year 2022, according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. This is lower than the national average, with Greater Melbourne having a median income of $54,892 and an average income of $73,761 in the same period. By March 2025, estimates suggest the median income will be approximately $53,996 and the average will be around $63,422, based on a 10.11% growth rate since financial year 2022. Census data indicates that household, family, and personal incomes in Narre Warren - South West rank modestly, between the 31st and 42nd percentiles. The income band of $1,500 - 2,999 captures 38.7% of the community (5,999 individuals), slightly higher than the regional average of 32.8%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Narre Warren - South West, with only 82.0% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 41st percentile.

Narre Warren - South West is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Narre Warren - South West's dwelling structure, as recorded in the latest Census, consisted of 87.1% houses and 12.9% other dwellings. This compares to Melbourne metro's figures of 88.1% houses and 11.8% other dwellings. The home ownership level in Narre Warren - South West was 23.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 41.2% and rented ones at 34.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,738, below Melbourne metro's average of $1,900. The median weekly rent figure was $360, compared to Melbourne metro's $370. Nationally, Narre Warren - South West's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Narre Warren - South West has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 75.7% of all households, including 36.9% couples with children, 23.0% couples without children, and 14.1% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 24.3%, with lone person households at 21.5% and group households making up 2.9%. The median household size is 2.8 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.9.

Educational outcomes in Narre Warren - South West fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 22.4%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 15.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.5%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 34.9% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas (12.1%) and certificates (22.8%). Educational participation is high at 30.0%, including 9.9% in primary, 7.4% in secondary, and 4.8% in tertiary education.

Seven schools educate approximately 2,763 students in Narre Warren - South West, with typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 968) and balanced educational opportunities. The educational mix includes three primary, three secondary, and one K-12 school.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Narre Warren - South West has 78 active public transport stops. These are a mix of train and bus stations. They are served by 20 individual routes.

Together, these provide 4,250 weekly passenger trips. Residents' access to transport is rated as good. On average, they live 224 meters from the nearest stop. Across all routes, service frequency averages 607 trips per day. This equates to approximately 54 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Narre Warren - South West is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Narre Warren - South West shows better health outcomes with lower prevalence of common conditions compared to national averages. However, older and at-risk cohorts have higher rates. Private health cover is low, around 48% (~7,487 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 53.6% and the national average of 55.3%.

Asthma and mental health issues are most common, affecting 7.5% and 7.3%, respectively. About 71.8% report no medical ailments, similar to Greater Melbourne's 72.0%. The area has 13.2% residents aged 65 and over (2,046 people), lower than Greater Melbourne's 15.7%. Health outcomes among seniors require more attention.

Narre Warren - South West is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Narre Warren - South West has a high level of cultural diversity, with 44.3% of its population born overseas and 44.0% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Narre Warren - South West, accounting for 40.3% of the population. Islam is notably overrepresented, comprising 12.5% compared to 11.4% across Greater Melbourne.

The top three ancestry groups are Other (23.9%), English (17.9%), and Australian (17.4%). There are significant differences in the representation of certain ethnic groups: Sri Lankan is overrepresented at 2.5%, Hungarian remains consistent at 0.7%, and Serbian is underrepresented at 1.1%.

Narre Warren - South West's population is younger than the national pattern

Narre Warren - South West's median age in 2021 was 35 years, which is younger than Greater Melbourne's 37 and the national average of 38 years. The 25-34 age group constituted 18.4%, higher than Greater Melbourne's figure, while the 45-54 cohort made up 10.6%. Between 2021 and the present, the 35 to 44 age group has increased from 14.1% to 15.8%, whereas the 45 to 54 cohort has decreased from 12.0% to 10.6%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic changes in Narre Warren - South West. The 65-74 age group is projected to rise by 507 people (43%), from 1,190 to 1,698. Meanwhile, the 0-4 cohort is expected to grow by a modest 4% (40 people).