Narre Warren - South West

Population growth drivers in Narre Warren - South West are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Narre Warren - South West's population is around 15,527 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 769 people (5.2%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 14,758 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 15,452 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 191 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 1,667 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, Narre Warren - South West has demonstrated resilient growth patterns with a 1.0% compound annual growth rate, outpacing the SA3 area. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which contributed approximately 69.3% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. As we examine future population trends, an above-median population growth of national areas is projected, with the area expected to increase by 3,172 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 19.9% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Narre Warren - South West recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Narre Warren - South West has experienced around 70 dwellings receiving development approval each year, totalling 354 homes over the past 5 financial years. So far in FY-26, 33 approvals have been recorded. Given an average of only 1 new resident per year per dwelling constructed over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), new construction is matching or outpacing demand, offering buyers more options and enabling population growth that could exceed current expectations, while new homes are being built at an average value of $226,000—below regional norms—reflecting more affordable housing options for purchasers. Also, $42.9 million in commercial approvals have been registered this financial year, indicating strong commercial development momentum.

When measured against Greater Melbourne, Narre Warren - South West has around three-quarters the rate of new dwelling approvals per person while it places among the 55th percentile of areas assessed nationally. Recent construction comprises 31.0% detached dwellings and 69.0% townhouses or apartments. This focus on higher-density living creates more affordable entry points and suits downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This shows a considerable change from the current housing mix (currently 87.0% houses), reflecting reduced availability of development sites and addressing shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. With around 338 people per dwelling approval, Narre Warren - South West shows characteristics of a low density area.

Looking ahead, Narre Warren - South West is expected to grow by 3,097 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Current development appears well-matched to future needs, supporting steady market conditions without extreme price pressure.

Narre Warren - South West has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 48thth percentile nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total, 37 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include the Narre Warren Police Station Upgrade, Casey Gardens Development, Stockland Minta Residential Estate, and Westfield Fountain Gate Ongoing Development, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Narre Warren - South West shows employment indicators that trail behind approximately 70% of regions assessed across Australia

Narre Warren - South West has a skilled workforce, with manufacturing and industrial sectors strongly represented, an unemployment rate of 7.8%, and 2.9% in estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 7,983 residents are in work, while the unemployment rate is 3.1% above Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%, showing room for improvement, and workforce participation is somewhat below standard (68.7% compared to Greater Melbourne's 71.3%). Based on Census responses, a moderate 18.9% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Employment among residents is concentrated in health care & social assistance, manufacturing, and construction. The area shows particularly strong specialization in manufacturing, with an employment share of 1.7 times the regional level. Conversely, professional & technical services show lower representation at 5.3% versus the regional average of 10.1%. The ratio of 0.8 workers for each resident, as at the Census, indicates a level of local employment opportunities above the norm.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, over the 12 months to December 2025, employment increased by 2.9% while the labour force increased by 4.6%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 1.5 percentage points. By comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 2.4%, labour force growth of 2.8%, with unemployment rising 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Narre Warren - South West. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Narre Warren - South West's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.8% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

The Narre Warren - South West SA2 shows a median taxpayer income of $51,844 and an average of $59,799 according to the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for FY-23. This is lower than average on a national basis, contrasting with Greater Melbourne's median income of $57,688 and average income of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $56,121 (median) and $64,732 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals household, family and personal incomes all rank modestly in Narre Warren - South West, between the 31st and 42nd percentiles. The data shows the $1,500 - 2,999 earnings band captures 38.7% of the community (6,008 individuals), consistent with broader trends across regional levels showing 32.8% in the same category. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 82.0% of income remaining, ranking at the 40th percentile.

Narre Warren - South West is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Dwelling structure within Narre Warren - South West, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 87.1% houses and 12.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Narre Warren - South West was lagging that of Melbourne metro, at 23.9%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (41.2%) or rented (34.9%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well below the Melbourne metro average at $1,738, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $360, compared to Melbourne metro's $2,000 and $390. Nationally, Narre Warren - South West's mortgage repayments are lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are less than the national figure of $375.

Narre Warren - South West has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 75.7% of all households, comprising 36.9% couples with children, 23.0% couples without children, and 14.1% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 24.3%, with lone person households at 21.5% and group households comprising 2.9% of the total. The median household size of 2.8 people is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Educational outcomes in Narre Warren - South West fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (22.4%) substantially below the Greater Melbourne average of 37.0%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 15.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.5%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 34.9% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (12.1%) and certificates (22.8%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 30.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.9% in primary education, 7.4% in secondary education, and 4.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 76 active transport stops operating within Narre Warren - South West, comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 19 individual routes, collectively providing 3,189 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 224 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 89%, with 7% by train. Vehicle ownership averages 1.5 per dwelling, which is above the regional average. Some 18.9% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 455 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 41 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Narre Warren - South West is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Narre Warren - South West faces significant health challenges, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts, and the rate of private health cover is very low at approximately 49% of the total population (~7,592 people). This compares to 56.7% across Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are asthma and mental health issues, impacting 7.5% and 7.3% of residents, respectively, while 71.8% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among the working-age population are broadly typical. The area has 13.6% of residents aged 65 and over (2,114 people), which is lower than the 15.1% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Narre Warren - South West is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Narre Warren - South West scores highly on cultural diversity, with 44.3% of its population born overseas and 44.0% speaking a language other than English at home. The main religion in Narre Warren - South West is Christianity, which makes up 40.3% of the population. However, the most apparent overrepresentation is in Islam, which comprises 12.5% of the population, substantially higher than the Greater Melbourne average of 5.6%.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Narre Warren - South West are Other, comprising 23.9% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 14.6%, English, comprising 17.9% of the population, and Australian, comprising 17.4% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Sri Lankan is notably overrepresented at 2.5% of the population (vs 0.8% regionally), Hungarian at 0.7% (vs 0.3%) and Serbian at 1.1% (vs 0.4%).

Narre Warren - South West's population is younger than the national pattern

Narre Warren - South West's median age of 35 years stands slightly younger than Greater Melbourne's 37 as well as somewhat younger than the 38-year national average. The 25 - 34 age group shows strong representation at 17.9% compared to Greater Melbourne, whereas the 45 - 54 cohort is less prevalent at 10.4%. In the period since 2021, the 35 to 44 age group has grown from 14.1% to 16.1% of the population. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 12.0% to 10.4%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes for Narre Warren - South West. The 45 to 54 age cohort is projected to increase solidly, expanding by 479 people (30%) from 1,608 to 2,088. Meanwhile, the 0 to 4 cohort grows by a modest 5% (50 people).