Narre Warren - South West

Population growth drivers in Narre Warren - South West are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Narre Warren - South West's population was approximately 15,621 as of May 2026. This figure represents an increase of 863 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 14,758. The growth is inferred from the estimated resident population of 15,484 in June 2025 and an additional 230 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1,677 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Narre Warren - South West's growth rate of 5.8% since the census is within 0.4 percentage points of the SA3 area's growth rate of 6.2%. The population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration, contributing approximately 72.5% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 for each SA2 area. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusting them using a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends project an above median growth for the area, with an expected increase of 2,883 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a total increase of 17.6% over the 16 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Narre Warren - South West recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Narre Warren - South West has seen approximately 70 dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 354 homes from FY-21 to FY-25. As of FY-26, 42 approvals have been recorded. On average, one new resident per year per dwelling constructed has been observed during this period. This pace of construction matches or exceeds demand, providing more housing options and potentially exceeding current population growth expectations.

The average expected construction cost for these dwellings is $226,000, which is below regional norms, indicating more affordable housing options. In FY-26, commercial approvals valued at $42.9 million have been registered, reflecting strong commercial development momentum in the area. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Narre Warren - South West has about three-quarters the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and ranks among the 55th percentile nationally when assessed for areas. Recent construction comprises 31.0% detached dwellings and 69.0% townhouses or apartments, marking a shift from the current housing mix of 87.0% houses. This change reflects reduced availability of development sites and addresses shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements.

The area has around 338 people per dwelling approval, indicating characteristics of a low density area. Looking ahead, Narre Warren - South West is projected to grow by 2,746 residents by 2041, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Current development trends appear well-suited to meet future needs, supporting steady market conditions without extreme price pressure.

Narre Warren - South West has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 48thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 37 projects likely impacting the region. Notable initiatives include Narre Warren Police Station Upgrade, Casey Gardens Development, Stockland Minta Residential Estate, and Westfield Fountain Gate Ongoing Development. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Narre Warren - South West shows employment indicators that trail behind approximately 70% of regions assessed across Australia

Narre Warren - South West has a skilled workforce with strong representation in manufacturing and industrial sectors. The unemployment rate was 7.8% as of December 2025. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 2.9%.

As of that date, 7,983 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 3.1%, higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%. Workforce participation was broadly similar to Greater Melbourne's 69.9%. According to Census responses, 18.9% of residents worked from home. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, manufacturing, and construction.

The area shows strong specialization in manufacturing with an employment share of 1.7 times the regional level. Conversely, professional & technical services have lower representation at 5.3% compared to the regional average of 10.1%. The ratio of workers to residents is 0.8, indicating a level of local employment opportunities above the norm. Over the 12 months to December 2025, employment increased by 2.9%, while labour force increased by 4.6%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 1.5 percentage points. By comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 2.4% and labour force growth of 2.8%, with unemployment rising by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that Narre Warren - South West's employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.8% over ten years, based on industry-specific projections applied to the local employment mix.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

Narre Warren - South West SA2 had a median taxpayer income of $51,844 and an average of $59,799 in financial year 2023, according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. This was lower than the national average, with Greater Melbourne's median income being $57,688 and average income being $75,164. Based on a Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes as of March 2026 would be approximately $56,831 (median) and $65,552 (average). Census data showed household, family, and personal incomes ranked modestly in Narre Warren - South West, between the 31st and 42nd percentiles. The $1,500 - 2,999 earnings band captured 38.7% of the community (6,045 individuals), which was consistent with broader trends across regional levels showing 32.8% in the same category. Housing affordability pressures were severe, with only 82.0% of income remaining, ranking at the 40th percentile.

Narre Warren - South West is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Dwelling structure in Narre Warren - South West, as per the latest Census, consisted of 87.1% houses and 12.9% other dwellings. In comparison, Melbourne metro had 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Narre Warren - South West was at 23.9%, with the rest either mortgaged (41.2%) or rented (34.9%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,738, lower than Melbourne metro's $2,000 and the national average of $1,863. Median weekly rent in Narre Warren - South West was $360, less than Melbourne metro's $390 and the national figure of $375.

Narre Warren - South West has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 75.7% of all households, including 36.9% couples with children, 23.0% couples without children, and 14.1% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 24.3%, consisting of 21.5% lone person households and 2.9% group households. The median household size is 2.8 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Educational outcomes in Narre Warren - South West fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate of 22.4%, as of the latest data, is significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 15.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.5%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials are prevalent among residents aged 15 and above, with 34.9% holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (12.1%) and certificates (22.8%). Educational participation is high, with 30.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, comprising 9.9% in primary, 7.4% in secondary, and 4.8% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 30.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.9% in primary education, 7.4% in secondary education, and 4.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Narre Warren - South West has 76 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 19 different routes that together facilitate 3,189 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically residing 224 meters from the nearest stop. As a mainly residential region, most commuters travel outward. Cars remain the primary mode of transportation, used by 89% of residents, while train usage stands at 7%. On average, there are 1.5 vehicles per dwelling, surpassing the regional norm.

According to the 2021 Census, 18.9% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency averages 455 trips daily across all routes, equating to roughly 41 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Narre Warren - South West is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Narre Warren South West faces significant health challenges based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is very low at approximately 49% of the total population, which is around 7,638 people.

This compares to 56.7% across Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.7%. The most common medical conditions in the area are asthma and mental health issues, impacting 7.5 and 7.3% of residents respectively. Meanwhile, 71.8% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among the working-age population are broadly typical. The area has 13.3% of residents aged 65 and over, which is around 2,080 people, lower than the 15.0% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Narre Warren - South West is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Narre Warren-South West has a high level of cultural diversity, with 44.3% of its population born overseas and 44.0% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the main religion in Narre Warren-South West, comprising 40.3% of its population. Islam is overrepresented, making up 12.5%, compared to Greater Melbourne's average of 5.6%.

The top three ancestry groups are Other (23.9%), English (17.9%), and Australian (17.4%). Notably, Sri Lankan (2.5%), Hungarian (0.7%), and Serbian (1.1%) ethnic groups are overrepresented compared to regional averages of 0.8%, 0.3%, and 0.4% respectively.

Narre Warren - South West's population is younger than the national pattern

Narre Warren - South West's median age in 2021 was 35 years, slightly younger than Greater Melbourne's 37 and the national average of 38 years. The 25-34 age group made up 17.9%, higher than Greater Melbourne's percentage, while the 45-54 cohort comprised 10.5%. Between 2021 and present, the 35-44 age group grew from 14.1% to 16.2% of the population. Conversely, the 45-54 cohort decreased from 12.0% to 10.5%. By 2041, forecasts indicate significant demographic shifts in Narre Warren - South West. The 45-54 age group is projected to increase by 449 people (27%), rising from 1,638 to 2,088. Meanwhile, the 0-4 cohort is expected to grow modestly by 3% (31 people).