Cranbourne North - West
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Cranbourne North - West reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Cranbourne North - West's population is approximately 12,332 as of August 2025. This represents an increase of 422 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 11,910. The estimated resident population in June 2024 was 12,329, with an additional 25 validated new addresses since the Census date contributing to this increase. This results in a density ratio of 2,579 persons per square kilometer, placing Cranbourne North - West in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed approximately 56.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on these projections, Cranbourne North - West is forecasted to experience significant population growth in the top quartile of national areas, with an expected increase of 3,317 persons to 2041, reflecting a total increase of 26.9% over the 17-year period.

The level of residential development activity in Cranbourne North - West is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Cranbourne North-West has seen approximately 15 dwellings granted development approval each year. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) produces this data on a financial year basis, with 77 homes approved over the past five years from FY-21 to FY-25, and none recorded so far in FY-26. Despite population decline during this period, development activity has been relatively sufficient, which can be beneficial for buyers. The average construction cost of new dwellings is $361,000, below regional levels, indicating more affordable housing options.

This financial year, there have been $283,000 in commercial approvals, reflecting the area's residential nature. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Cranbourne North-West has significantly lower building activity, at 92.0% below the regional average per person, which can strengthen demand and prices for existing properties. This activity is also lower than national levels, suggesting market maturity and potential development constraints. New developments consist of 36.0% standalone homes and 64.0% attached dwellings, offering affordable entry pathways and attracting downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. This shift from the current housing mix (currently 96.0% houses) may reflect reduced availability of development sites and changing lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. The location has approximately 3059 people per dwelling approval, indicating an established market. Future projections estimate Cranbourne North-West will add 3,314 residents by 2041.

If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing buyer competition and supporting stronger price growth.

Cranbourne North - West has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 14 projects likely impacting the area. Notable ones are Summerset Cranbourne North, Lyndhurst Inland Port and Industrial Hub, Thompsons Road Business Park, and Kala Primary School. The following list details those of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Employment performance in Cranbourne North - West has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Cranbourne North - West has a skilled labour force with notable representation in the construction sector. The unemployment rate was 7.6% as of June 2021.

Over the past year, estimated employment growth was 2.5%. As of June 2025, 6400 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 7.5%, higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation is similar to Greater Melbourne's at 64.1%. Dominant employment sectors include health care & social assistance, manufacturing, and construction.

Manufacturing has particularly high representation, at 1.9 times the regional average. Professional & technical services show lower representation at 5%. Employment opportunities may be limited locally as indicated by Census data. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 2.5%, labour force grew by 4.4%, resulting in a rise in unemployment to 9.2%. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment growth of 3.5% and labour force growth of 4.0%, with an unemployment rate increase to 5.1%. State-level data from Sep-25 shows Victoria's employment grew by 1.08% year-on-year, adding 39,880 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%, slightly higher than the national rate of 4.5%. Jobs and Skills Australia forecasts national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Cranbourne North - West's employment mix suggests local growth could be approximately 5.9% over five years and 12.6% over ten years, although these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes only.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

Cranbourne North - West's median taxpayer income was $47,003 and average was $53,286 in financial year 2022. This is below Greater Melbourne's median income of $54,892 and average of $73,761. Based on Wage Price Index growth since March 2022 until then, current estimates would be approximately $51,755 (median) and $58,673 (average) as of March 2025. According to Census data from 2021, household, family and personal incomes in Cranbourne North - West ranked modestly, between the 34th and 46th percentiles. Income distribution showed that 40.2% of residents fell within the $1,500 - $2,999 range, slightly higher than the regional average of 32.8%. Housing affordability pressures were severe, with only 82.4% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 46th percentile.

Cranbourne North - West is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Cranbourne North - West, as of the latest Census, 95.5% of dwellings were houses with the remaining 4.6% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments and other dwelling types. This compares to Melbourne metro's 91.5% houses and 8.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Cranbourne North - West stood at 22.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 53.1% and rented ones at 24.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,709, lower than Melbourne metro's average of $1,950. The median weekly rent in the area was $355, compared to Melbourne metro's $386. Nationally, Cranbourne North - West's mortgage repayments were below the Australian average of $1,863 and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Cranbourne North - West features high concentrations of family households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 79.6% of all households, including 42.6% couples with children, 20.7% couples without children, and 14.8% single parent families. Non-family households account for 20.4%, with lone person households at 17.8% and group households comprising 2.7%. The median household size is 3.0 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 3.2.

Cranbourne North - West shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

The area has university qualification rates of 17.8%, significantly lower than the Greater Melbourne average of 37.0%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common at 12.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.1%) and graduate diplomas (1.5%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 36.7% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas account for 11.7% and certificates for 25.0%.

Educational participation is high at 32.9%, including 11.7% in primary education, 8.8% in secondary education, and 4.2% pursuing tertiary education. As of 2021, Cranbourne North - West has three schools with a combined enrollment of 1,891 students. The area demonstrates typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 990) with balanced educational opportunities. Education provision is balanced with two primary and one secondary school serving distinct age groups.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Cranbourne North - West has 50 operational public transport stops. These are a mix of train and bus stations. Seven different routes service these stops, collectively facilitating 2,485 weekly passenger trips.

Residential locations in the area enjoy good transport accessibility, with an average distance of 210 meters to the nearest stop. All routes combined offer approximately 355 daily trips, equating to about 49 weekly trips per individual stop.

Cranbourne North - West's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Cranbourne North-West residents show relatively positive health outcomes, with low prevalence of common conditions among the general population, although higher than national averages for older and at-risk cohorts. Only approximately 47% (~5,759 people) have private health cover, compared to Greater Melbourne's 49.1%. Nationally, this figure stands at 55.3%.

Mental health issues (8.5%) and asthma (8.3%) are the most common conditions in the area, with 71.2% of residents reporting no medical ailments. This compares to 76.4% across Greater Melbourne. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 11.1% (1,371 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 9.6%. Health outcomes among seniors require more attention than the broader population.

Cranbourne North - West is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Cranbourne North-West has notable cultural diversity, with 38.3% of its population born overseas and 37.1% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Cranbourne North-West, comprising 38.3% of people. However, Islam is more prevalent here than in Greater Melbourne, making up 11.9% compared to 11.1%.

The top three ancestry groups are Other (22.2%), Australian (20.7%), and English (20.5%). Notably, Sri Lankan, Samoan, and Indian ethnicities have different representations in Cranbourne North-West compared to Greater Melbourne: Sri Lankan at 1.3% vs 2.2%, Samoan at 1.1% vs 1.3%, and Indian at 5.5% vs 9.2%.

Cranbourne North - West hosts a young demographic, positioning it in the bottom quartile nationwide

Cranbourne North-West has a median age of 34 years, which is lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and Australia's average of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Cranbourne North-West has a higher proportion of residents aged 5-14 (14.3%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (14.2%). Between the 2021 Census and the present, the population aged 15-24 has increased from 13.4% to 14.7%, while the 65-74 age group has grown from 6.0% to 7.0%. Conversely, the 5-14 age group has decreased from 15.5% to 14.3%, and the 25-34 age group has dropped from 15.4% to 14.2%. By 2041, population forecasts suggest significant demographic changes in Cranbourne North-West. The 65-74 age cohort is projected to grow by 72%, adding 625 residents to reach a total of 1,491. Meanwhile, the 0-4 age group shows minimal growth of just 4% (30 people).