Cranbourne North - West

An assessment of population growth drivers in Cranbourne North - West reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Cranbourne North - West's population is 12,313 as of May 2026. This reflects an increase from 11,910 in the 2021 Census. The change was inferred from ABS' June 2025 estimate and additional validated addresses since the Census date. The population density is 2,575 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile nationally according to AreaSearch's analysis. Overseas migration contributed approximately 56.6% of recent population gains.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered, VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 are used with adjustments made employing weighted aggregation methods. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on the latest ERP population numbers, the area is projected to grow by 3,175 persons to 2041, reflecting a total increase of 25.8% over the 16-year period.

The level of residential development activity in Cranbourne North - West is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Cranbourne North - West has averaged approximately 15 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 77 homes. As of FY26 so far, 9 approvals have been recorded. The area's population decline suggests that new supply may be meeting demand, providing good options for buyers with an average expected construction cost value of $322,000 per dwelling. This financial year has seen $283,000 in commercial approvals, indicating a predominantly residential focus.

Compared to Greater Melbourne, Cranbourne North - West shows significantly lower building activity, 91.0% below the regional average per person, which generally supports stronger demand and values for established dwellings. This is also below the national average, reflecting the area's maturity and possible planning constraints. New building activity comprises 36.0% detached dwellings and 64.0% attached dwellings, favouring higher-density living to create more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This shift contrasts with the existing housing stock, which is currently 96.0% houses, indicating decreasing availability of developable sites and reflecting changing lifestyles and demand for diverse, affordable housing options. The location has approximately 3059 people per dwelling approval, demonstrating an established market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Cranbourne North - West is expected to grow by 3,175 residents through to 2041. If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price growth.

Looking ahead, Cranbourne North - West is expected to grow by 3,175 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Should current construction levels persist, housing supply could lag population growth, likely intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Cranbourne North - West has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 48thth percentile nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 13 projects likely to impact this region. Notable ones are Summerset Cranbourne North, Kala Primary School, Lyndhurst Secondary College Upgrade, and Lyndhurst Inland Port and Industrial Hub. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Cranbourne North - West shows employment indicators that trail behind approximately 70% of regions assessed across Australia

Cranbourne North - West has a skilled workforce with notable representation in the construction sector. As of December 2025, its unemployment rate is 8.1%, showing an estimated employment growth of 2.8% over the past year. By this date, 6,384 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 3.3% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%.

Workforce participation in Cranbourne North - West is similar to Greater Melbourne's 69.9%. According to Census responses, 15.7% of residents work from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdown impacts. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, manufacturing, and construction sectors. The area specializes in manufacturing with an employment share 1.9 times the regional level but has lower representation in professional & technical services at 5.0% compared to Greater Melbourne's 10.1%.

Over the year to December 2025, employment increased by 2.8% while labour force grew by 4.6%, causing unemployment to rise by 1.5 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne saw employment growth of 2.4%, labour force expansion of 2.8%, and a smaller increase in unemployment at 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Cranbourne North - West's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.9% over five years and 12.6% over ten years, assuming constant population projections for illustrative purposes.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

The Cranbourne North - West SA2 had a median taxpayer income of $49,762 and an average income of $55,938 in the financial year 2023, according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. This is lower than national averages, with Greater Melbourne having a median income of $57,688 and an average income of $75,164 during the same period. By March 2026, estimated incomes would be approximately $54,549 (median) and $61,319 (average), based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since financial year 2023. Census 2021 income data shows household, family, and personal incomes in Cranbourne North - West rank modestly, between the 33rd and 46th percentiles. The earnings profile indicates that 40.2% of the population (4,949 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 income range, similar to regional levels where 32.8% occupy this bracket. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Cranbourne North - West, with only 82.4% of income remaining, ranking at the 45th percentile.

Cranbourne North - West is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

In Cranbourne North - West, as per the latest Census data, 95.5% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 4.6% consisting of semi-detached homes, apartments, and other dwelling types. This contrasts with Melbourne metropolitan area's composition of 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Cranbourne North - West stood at 22.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 53.1% and rented ones at 24.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,709, lower than Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. The median weekly rent in the area was $355, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Cranbourne North - West's mortgage repayments were below the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Cranbourne North - West features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 79.6% of all households, including 42.6% couples with children, 20.7% couples without children, and 14.8% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 20.4%, with lone person households at 17.8% and group households comprising 2.7%. The median household size is 3.0 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Cranbourne North - West shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

The area has university qualification rates of 17.8%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 12.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.1%) and graduate diplomas (1.5%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 36.7% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.7%) and certificates (25.0%). Educational participation is high, with 32.9% currently enrolled in formal education, comprising 11.7% in primary, 8.8% in secondary, and 4.2% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 32.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.7% in primary education, 8.8% in secondary education, and 4.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Cranbourne North - West has 48 operational public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 7 different routes that together facilitate 1,935 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is deemed good, with residents on average being situated 210 meters from the nearest transport stop. Primarily residential, most commuters in Cranbourne North - West travel outward. Cars remain the prevalent mode of transportation, used by 91% of residents. On average, there are 1.7 vehicles per dwelling, exceeding the regional norm.

According to the 2021 Census, 15.7% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. Across all routes, service frequency averages 276 trips per day, translating to roughly 40 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Cranbourne North - West is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a considerably higher degree among older age cohorts

Cranbourne North - West faces significant health challenges based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are somewhat prevalent across all age groups but more so among older cohorts. The rate of private health cover is very low at approximately 48% of the total population, which consists of around 5,848 people.

This compares to 56.7% in Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.7%. Mental health issues impact 8.5% of residents, while asthma affects 8.3%. About 71.2% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among the working-age population are broadly typical. The area has 11.6% of residents aged 65 and over, totaling around 1,430 people, which is lower than the 15.0% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges but rank lower nationally compared to the broader population.

Cranbourne North - West is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Cranbourne North-West has a high level of cultural diversity, with 38.3% of its population born overseas and 37.1% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Cranbourne North-West, comprising 38.3% of the population. However, Islam is significantly overrepresented, making up 11.9% of the population compared to Greater Melbourne's average of 5.6%.

The top three ancestry groups are Other (22.2%), Australian (20.7%), and English (20.5%). Notably, Sri Lankan, Samoan, and Indian ethnicities are overrepresented in Cranbourne North-West at 1.3%, 1.1%, and 5.5% respectively, compared to regional averages of 0.8%, 0.3%, and 4.2%.

Cranbourne North - West hosts a young demographic, positioning it in the bottom quartile nationwide

Cranbourne North - West's median age is 34 years, lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and Australia's 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Cranbourne North - West has a higher proportion of residents aged 5-14 (14.1%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (14.7%). Between the 2021 Census and present, the 65-74 age group has increased from 6.0% to 7.3%, while the 15-24 cohort has risen from 13.4% to 14.5%. Conversely, the 5-14 cohort has decreased from 15.5% to 14.1%, and the 45-54 group has dropped from 13.0% to 11.8%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic changes for Cranbourne North - West, with the 65-74 cohort projected to grow by 61%, adding 549 residents to reach 1,453. In contrast, the 0-4 cohort shows minimal growth of just 7% (55 people).