Cranbourne North - West

An assessment of population growth drivers in Cranbourne North - West reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Cranbourne North-West's population is around 12,341 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 431 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 11,910 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 12,329 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 25 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 2,581 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 56.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering the projected demographic shifts, a significant population increase in the top quartile of Australian statistical areas is forecast, with the area expected to grow by 3,317 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 26.8% in total over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Cranbourne North - West is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Cranbourne North - West averaged approximately 15 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 77 homes. As of FY26, there have been 4 approvals recorded. The area's population decline suggests that new supply has likely kept pace with demand, offering buyers good choice while new dwellings are developed at an average expected construction cost value of $322,000. This year, there have also been $283,000 in commercial approvals, indicating a predominantly residential focus.

Compared to Greater Melbourne, Cranbourne North - West records significantly lower building activity, 92.0% below the regional average per person. This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established dwellings. Nationally, this is also below average, reflecting the area's maturity and possible planning constraints. New building activity shows 36.0% detached dwellings and 64.0% attached dwellings, favouring higher-density living to create more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This represents a notable shift from the area's existing housing composition, currently 96.0% houses, indicating decreasing availability of developable sites and reflecting changing lifestyles and demand for diverse, affordable housing options. The location has approximately 3059 people per dwelling approval, demonstrating an established market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Cranbourne North - West is expected to grow by 3,305 residents through to 2041.

If current construction levels persist, housing supply could lag population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Cranbourne North - West has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 12 projects likely to impact the area. Notable projects include Summerset Cranbourne North, Kala Primary School, Lyndhurst Secondary College Upgrade, and Lyndhurst Inland Port and Industrial Hub. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Cranbourne North - West shows employment indicators that trail behind approximately 70% of regions assessed across Australia

Cranbourne North - West has a skilled workforce with the construction sector being notably represented. Its unemployment rate was 7.6% in September 2025, which is 3.0% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 3.2%.

As of September 2025, 6,354 residents were employed with a workforce participation rate similar to Greater Melbourne's 71.0%. A moderate 15.7% of residents worked from home, considering Covid-19 lockdown impacts. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, manufacturing, and construction. Manufacturing has particular employment specialization with an employment share of 1.9 times the regional level.

However, professional & technical services are under-represented at 5.0%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. The area offers limited local employment opportunities as indicated by Census data. Over the year to September 2025, employment increased by 3.2% while labour force grew by 4.6%, causing unemployment to rise by 1.3 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne saw employment grow by 3.0%, labour force expand by 3.3%, and unemployment rise by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Cranbourne North - West's employment mix indicates local employment should increase by 5.9% over five years and 12.6% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localised population projections.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

The median taxpayer income in Cranbourne North - West SA2 is $49,762, with an average of $55,938, according to the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year 2023. This is lower than the national average, compared to Greater Melbourne's median income of $57,688 and average income of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since the financial year 2023, current estimates for September 2025 would be approximately $53,867 (median) and $60,553 (average). According to Census 2021 income data, household, family, and personal incomes in Cranbourne North - West rank modestly, between the 33rd and 46th percentiles. The earnings profile shows that 40.2% of the population, equating to 4,961 individuals, fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 income range, which mirrors regional levels where 32.8% occupy this bracket. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Cranbourne North - West, with only 82.4% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 45th percentile.

Cranbourne North - West is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Census data from Cranbourne North - West shows 95.5% houses and 4.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Cranbourne North - West was at 22.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 53.1% and rented at 24.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,709, below Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. Median weekly rent in the area was $355, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Cranbourne North - West's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Cranbourne North - West features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 79.6% of all households, including 42.6% couples with children, 20.7% couples without children, and 14.8% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 20.4%, with lone person households at 17.8% and group households making up 2.7%. The median household size is 3.0 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Cranbourne North - West shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

The area's university qualification rate is 17.8%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 12.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.1%) and graduate diplomas (1.5%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 36.7% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.7%) and certificates (25.0%). Educational participation is high, with 32.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 11.7% in primary, 8.8% in secondary, and 4.2% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 32.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.7% in primary education, 8.8% in secondary education, and 4.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Cranbourne North - West has 48 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by seven different routes that together facilitate 1,935 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 210 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to its residential nature, with car being the dominant mode of transport at 91%. On average, there are 1.7 vehicles per dwelling, which is higher than the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, 15.7% of residents work from home, a figure that may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

The service frequency averages 276 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 40 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Cranbourne North - West is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a considerably higher degree among older age cohorts

Cranbourne North - West faces significant health challenges, as assessed by AreaSearch's evaluation of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are somewhat prevalent across all age groups but more so among older cohorts. Approximately 48% of the total population (~5,861 people) has private health cover, compared to Greater Melbourne's 56.7% and the national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are mental health issues (8.5%) and asthma (8.3%). Around 71.2% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 72.6% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among working-age residents are broadly typical. The area has 11.8% of residents aged 65 and over (1,455 people), lower than Greater Melbourne's 15.1%. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges but rank lower nationally compared to the broader population.

Cranbourne North - West is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Cranbourne North-West has a significant cultural diversity, with 38.3% of its population born overseas and 37.1% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Cranbourne North-West, comprising 38.3% of the population. Notably, Islam is overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne's average, making up 11.9% of Cranbourne North-West's population.

Regarding ancestry, the top three groups are Other (22.2%), Australian (20.7%), and English (20.5%). There are notable variations in certain ethnic groups: Sri Lankan is overrepresented at 1.3%, Samoan at 1.1%, and Indian at 5.5% compared to regional averages.

Cranbourne North - West hosts a young demographic, positioning it in the bottom quartile nationwide

Cranbourne North - West has a median age of 34 years, which is lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and Australia's average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Cranbourne North - West has a higher percentage of residents aged 55-64 (12.6%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (13.8%). Between the 2021 Census and the present, the population aged 15-24 grew from 13.4% to 14.9%, while those aged 65-74 increased from 6.0% to 7.5%. Conversely, the percentage of residents aged 25-34 decreased from 15.4% to 13.8%, and those aged 5-14 dropped from 15.5% to 14.1%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic changes in Cranbourne North - West. The 65-74 age group is projected to grow by 62%, adding 569 residents to reach a total of 1,491. In contrast, the 0-4 age group shows minimal growth of just 8% (59 people).