Cranbourne North - West
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Cranbourne North - West reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of November 2025, Cranbourne North - West's population is approximately 12,335. This figure represents an increase of 425 individuals since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 11,910. This change is inferred from ABS estimates: 12,329 in June 2024 and an additional 26 validated new addresses post-Census. The resulting density ratio is 2,580 persons per square kilometer, placing Cranbourne North - West in the upper quartile nationally according to AreaSearch assessments. Overseas migration drove recent growth, contributing about 56.0% of overall population gains.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, Cranbourne North - West is projected to grow by 3,317 persons, reflecting a total increase of 26.8% over the 17-year period.

The level of residential development activity in Cranbourne North - West is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Cranbourne North-West has received approximately 15 dwelling approvals annually. Between FY20-21 and FY24-25, 77 homes were approved, with none yet in FY25-26. Despite population decline, development activity has been sufficient relative to the area's size, benefiting buyers while new properties are constructed at an average cost of $322,000.

This financial year, there have been $283,000 in commercial approvals, indicating minimal commercial development activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Cranbourne North-West has significantly lower building activity (92.0% below the regional average per person). This limited new construction typically supports demand and pricing for existing dwellings, reflecting market maturity and potential development constraints. New developments consist of 36.0% detached houses and 64.0% townhouses or apartments, a shift from the current 96.0% houses prevalence, suggesting diminishing developable land availability and responding to evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs. With approximately 3059 people per approval, Cranbourne North-West is an established area with a forecasted population increase of 3,311 residents by 2041. If current development rates persist, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and bolstering price growth.

Population forecasts indicate Cranbourne North - West will gain 3,311 residents through to 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Cranbourne North - West has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 12 projects that may affect this region. Notable ones include Summerset Cranbourne North, Lyndhurst Inland Port and Industrial Hub, Kala Primary School, and Thompsons Road Business Park. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Cranbourne North - West shows employment indicators that trail behind approximately 70% of regions assessed across Australia

Cranbourne North - West has a skilled workforce with the construction sector being notably represented. The unemployment rate was 7.6% in June 2021, with an estimated employment growth of 2.5% over the past year.

As of June 2025, 6400 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 2.9% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation in Cranbourne North - West is on par with Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. The leading employment industries among residents include health care & social assistance, manufacturing, and construction. Manufacturing, in particular, employs a significantly higher proportion of local workers compared to the regional level, at 1.9 times the rate.

Conversely, professional & technical services employ only 5.0% of local workers, below Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. The area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Over the 12 months to June 2025, employment increased by 2.5%, while labour force increased by 4.4%, resulting in an unemployment rise of 1.7 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 3.5% and labour force growth of 4.0%, with a 0.5 percentage point rise in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 project that national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Cranbourne North - West's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 5.9% over five years and 12.6% over ten years.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows Cranbourne North - West had a median income among taxpayers of $47,003 and an average of $53,286. Both figures are below the national average. In Greater Melbourne, the median was $54,892 and the average was $73,761. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, estimated incomes for September 2025 would be approximately $52,719 (median) and $59,766 (average). Census data indicates household, family, and personal incomes in Cranbourne North - West rank modestly, between the 34th and 46th percentiles. The predominant income cohort spans 40.2% of locals (4,958 people) in the $1,500 - 2,999 category, reflecting regional patterns where 32.8% similarly occupy this range. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 82.4% of income remaining, ranking at the 46th percentile.

Cranbourne North - West is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Cranbourne North - West, as per the latest Census, 95.5% of dwellings were houses with 4.6% being other types such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and others. This is compared to Melbourne metro's 91.5% houses and 8.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Cranbourne North - West stood at 22.3%, with mortgaged properties at 53.1% and rented ones at 24.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,709, lower than Melbourne metro's average of $1,950, while the median weekly rent was $355 compared to Melbourne metro's $386. Nationally, Cranbourne North - West's mortgage repayments were below the Australian average of $1,863 and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Cranbourne North - West features high concentrations of family households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 79.6% of all households, including 42.6% couples with children, 20.7% couples without children, and 14.8% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 20.4%, with lone person households at 17.8% and group households comprising 2.7%. The median household size is 3.0 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 3.2.

Cranbourne North - West shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

The area's university qualification rate is 17.8%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 12.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.1%) and graduate diplomas (1.5%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 36.7% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.7%) and certificates (25.0%). Educational participation is high at 32.9%, comprising 11.7% in primary education, 8.8% in secondary education, and 4.2% in tertiary education.

Cranbourne North - West's three schools have a combined enrollment of 1,891 students, serving distinct age groups with balanced educational opportunities (ICSEA: 990).

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Cranbourne North-West has 50 active public transport stops, serving a mix of train and bus routes. These stops are covered by 7 individual routes, collectively facilitating 2,485 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated good, with residents located an average of 210 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 355 trips per day across all routes, translating to approximately 49 weekly trips per individual stop.

Cranbourne North - West's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Cranbourne North - West residents show relatively positive health outcomes, with low prevalence of common conditions among the general population, albeit higher than national averages for older, at-risk cohorts. Approximately 47% (~5,760 people) have private health cover, lower than Greater Melbourne's 49.1% and the national average of 55.3%. Mental health issues and asthma are most common, affecting 8.5 and 8.3% respectively, while 71.2% report no medical ailments, compared to Greater Melbourne's 76.4%.

The area has 11.1% residents aged 65 and over (1,371 people), higher than Greater Melbourne's 9.6%. Health outcomes among seniors require more attention than the broader population.

Cranbourne North - West is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Cranbourne North-West has a high level of cultural diversity with 38.3% of its population born overseas and 37.1% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion, making up 38.3% of people in Cranbourne North-West. Islam is overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne, comprising 11.9% versus 11.1%.

The top three ancestry groups are Other (22.2%), Australian (20.7%), and English (20.5%). Notably, Sri Lankan (1.3%) and Samoan (1.1%) are overrepresented while Indian is underrepresented at 5.5% compared to regional figures of 2.2%, 1.3%, and 9.2% respectively.

Cranbourne North - West hosts a young demographic, positioning it in the bottom quartile nationwide

At age 34 years, Cranbourne North - West's median age is lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and Australia's average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Cranbourne North - West has a higher proportion of residents aged 5-14 (14.3%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (14.2%). Between the censuses of 2021 and 2026, the population aged 15 to 24 grew from 13.4% to 14.7%, while the population aged 65 to 74 increased from 6.0% to 7.0%. Conversely, the proportion of residents aged 5 to 14 decreased from 15.5% to 14.3%, and the proportion aged 25 to 34 dropped from 15.4% to 14.2%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic changes in Cranbourne North - West. The 65 to 74 age group is projected to grow by 72%, adding 625 residents and reaching a total of 1,491. In contrast, the 0 to 4 age group shows minimal growth of just 4% (30 people).