Cranbourne East - South

Cranbourne East - South lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Cranbourne East - South's population is around 15,267 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 2,978 people (24.2%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 12,289 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 15,112 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 510 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 2,864 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Cranbourne East - South's 24.2% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the national average (9.9%) and the state average, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by interstate migration, which contributed approximately 63.6% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers, including natural growth and overseas migration, were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering the projected demographic shifts, exceptional growth, placing it in the top 10 percent of national areas, is predicted over the period, with the area expected to grow by 10,455 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 67.5% in total over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Cranbourne East - South was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Cranbourne East - South has recorded around 249 residential properties granted approval each year, with 1,248 homes approved over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 95 so far in FY-26. With an average of 4.3 people per year moving to the area for each dwelling built over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), demand is significantly outpacing supply, which typically puts upward pressure on prices and increases competition among buyers, while new properties are constructed at an average value of $190,000—below regional norms—reflecting more affordable housing options for purchasers.

When measured against Greater Melbourne, Cranbourne East - South records somewhat elevated construction (41.0% above regional average per person over the 5 year period), balancing buyer choice with support for current property values, though construction activity has eased recently. This is well above average nationally, reflecting strong developer confidence in the area. New development consists of 91.0% detached houses and 9.0% townhouses or apartments, preserving the area's suburban nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers. With around 73 people per dwelling approval, Cranbourne East - South shows characteristics of a growth area.

Looking ahead, Cranbourne East - South is expected to grow by 10,300 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Current development appears well-matched to future needs, supporting steady market conditions without extreme price pressure.

Cranbourne East - South has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 34thth percentile nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total, 31 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include Eastleigh Estate, Elmslie Common Townhomes, Adrian Street Neighbourhood Activity Centre, and Crestwood Place Estate, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis indicates Cranbourne East - South maintains employment conditions that align with national benchmarks

Cranbourne East - South features a well-educated workforce, with manufacturing and industrial sectors strongly represented, an unemployment rate of 5.0%, and 4.4% estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 8,117 residents are in work, while the unemployment rate is 0.2% above Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%, and workforce participation is well beyond standard (76.7% compared to Greater Melbourne's 71.3%). Based on Census responses, a moderate 16.0% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Leading employment industries among residents comprise health care & social assistance, manufacturing, and retail trade. The area shows particularly strong specialization in health care & social assistance, with an employment share of 1.4 times the regional level. In contrast, professional & technical services employ just 4.6% of local workers, below Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of the Census working population versus the resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, the 12-month period saw employment increase by 4.4% alongside a labour force increase of 4.9%, resulting in unemployment rising by 0.5 percentage points. This compares to Greater Melbourne, where employment grew by 2.4%, the labour force expanded by 2.8%, and unemployment rose 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Cranbourne East - South. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Cranbourne East - South's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.7% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

The Cranbourne East - South SA2's income level is lower than average on a national basis according to the latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for FY-23. The Cranbourne East - South SA2's median income among taxpayers is $55,562 and the average income stands at $62,286, which compares to figures for Greater Melbourne's of $57,688 and $75,164 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $60,146 (median) and $67,425 (average) as of September 2025. Census 2021 income data shows household, family and personal incomes in Cranbourne East - South cluster around the 61st percentile nationally. Distribution data shows the largest segment comprises 48.2% earning $1,500 - 2,999 weekly (7,358 residents), consistent with broader trends across the metropolitan region showing 32.8% in the same category. High housing costs consume 19.6% of income, though strong earnings still place disposable income at the 58th percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Cranbourne East - South is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Dwelling structure within Cranbourne East - South, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 91.5% houses and 8.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Cranbourne East - South was lagging that of Melbourne metro, at 13.2%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (59.7%) or rented (27.1%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was in line with the Melbourne metro average at $2,000, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $401, compared to Melbourne metro's $2,000 and $390. Nationally, Cranbourne East - South's mortgage repayments are higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are exceeding the national figure of $375.

Cranbourne East - South features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 82.2% of all households, comprising 50.0% couples with children, 20.6% couples without children, and 10.6% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 17.8%, with lone person households at 15.8% and group households comprising 1.9% of the total. The median household size of 3.1 people is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

The educational profile of Cranbourne East - South exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Educational qualifications in Cranbourne East - South trail regional benchmarks, with 28.1% of residents aged 15+ holding university degrees compared to 37.0% in Greater Melbourne. This gap highlights potential for educational development and skills enhancement. Bachelor degrees lead at 18.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.7%) and graduate diplomas (2.1%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 36.2% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (14.8%) and certificates (21.4%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 34.0% of residents residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 12.4% in primary education, 7.2% in secondary education, and 4.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 13 active transport stops operating within Cranbourne East - South, comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 5 individual routes, collectively providing 752 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as moderate, with residents typically located 593 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 89%, with 6% by train. Vehicle ownership averages 1.5 per dwelling, which is above the regional average. Some 16.0% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 107 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 57 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Cranbourne East - South is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a considerably higher degree among older age cohorts

Cranbourne East - South faces significant health challenges, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are prevalent across the board, though to a considerably higher degree among older age cohorts, and the rate of private health cover is relatively low at approximately 50% of the total population (~7,694 people). This compares to 56.7% across Greater Melbourne. The national average is 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are asthma and mental health issues, impacting 7.0% and 6.0% of residents, respectively, while 77.8% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents are notably healthy with low chronic condition prevalence. The area has 8.0% of residents aged 65 and over (1,224 people), which is lower than the 15.1% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, though ranking lower nationally than the broader population.

Cranbourne East - South is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Cranbourne East - South scores highly on cultural diversity, with 47.3% of its population born overseas and 48.8% speaking a language other than English at home. The main religion in Cranbourne East - South is Christianity, which makes up 38.1% of the population. However, the most apparent overrepresentation is in Other, which comprises 10.6% of the population, substantially higher than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.3%.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Cranbourne East - South are Other, comprising 25.3% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 14.6%, English, comprising 17.3% of the population, and Australian, comprising 16.6% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Indian is notably overrepresented at 12.8% of Cranbourne East - South (vs 4.2% regionally), Samoan at 2.0% (vs 0.3%) and Sri Lankan at 1.8% (vs 0.8%).

Cranbourne East - South hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

At 31 years, Cranbourne East - South's median age is notably under the Greater Melbourne average of 37 and is significantly lower than the Australian median of 38. Relative to Greater Melbourne, Cranbourne East - South has a higher concentration of 35 - 44 residents (20.9%) but fewer 55 - 64 year-olds (5.8%). This 35 - 44 concentration is well above the national 14.3%. In the period since 2021, the 45 to 54 age group has grown from 8.2% to 10.8% of the population, while the 35 to 44 cohort increased from 18.8% to 20.9%. Conversely, the 25 to 34 cohort has declined from 20.7% to 16.5% and the 0 to 4 group dropped from 11.8% to 9.3%. Demographic modeling suggests Cranbourne East - South's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041. The 45 to 54 age cohort is projected to expand substantially, increasing by 1,989 people (121%) from 1,645 to 3,635.