Cranbourne East - South
Statistical Area - sa2

Cranbourne East - South lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

As of November 2025, Cranbourne East - South's population is approximately 15,267. This figure represents a growth of 2,978 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 12,289. The increase is inferred from ABS estimates of 15,112 in June 2024 and an additional 508 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 2,864 persons per square kilometer, placing Cranbourne East - South in the upper quartile nationally according to AreaSearch assessments. The area's growth rate of 24.2% since the 2021 census exceeds both national (8.9%) and state averages, indicating it as a growth leader. Interstate migration contributed approximately 63.6% of overall population gains during recent periods, with all drivers including natural growth and overseas migration being positive factors.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 with adjustments made using weighted aggregation methods. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population dynamics predict exceptional growth, placing Cranbourne East - South in the top 10 percent of statistical areas nationally. By 2041, the area is expected to increase by 10,455 persons based on latest population numbers, marking a total increase of 67.5% over the 17-year period.

The level of residential development activity in Cranbourne East - South was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Cranbourne East - South recorded approximately 249 residential properties granted approval annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, 1,248 homes were approved, with an additional 59 approved in FY-26.

Each year, on average, 4.3 people moved to the area for each dwelling built during these five years. This supply lagging behind demand typically results in heightened buyer competition and pricing pressures. The average construction cost of new homes was $190,000, below regional norms, indicating more affordable housing options. Comparatively, Cranbourne East - South had 41.0% more development per person than the Greater Melbourne average over this five-year period, offering reasonable buyer choices while sustaining existing property demand.

However, building activity has slowed in recent years. Nationally, this activity is above average, reflecting strong developer confidence in the area. New developments consist of 91.0% detached houses and 9.0% townhouses or apartments, preserving Cranbourne East - South's traditional suburban character with a focus on family homes. With around 73 people per dwelling approval, it exhibits characteristics of a growth area. Future projections estimate an addition of 10,300 residents by 2041. Current construction rates appear balanced with future demand, fostering steady market conditions without excessive price pressure.

Cranbourne East - South has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Area infrastructure changes significantly influence local performance. AreaSearch identified 31 projects potentially impacting the area. Notable ones include Elmslie Common Townhomes, Sapphire Estate Cranbourne East, Eastleigh Estate, and Adrian Street Neighbourhood Activity Centre. The following list details those likely most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Cranbourne East - South has seen below average employment performance when compared to national benchmarks

Cranbourne East - South has an educated workforce with strong manufacturing and industrial sectors. Its unemployment rate was 5.1% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 3.4%.

As of June 2025, 7,762 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 5.1%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 4.6%. Workforce participation is 68.5%, slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Key industries include health care & social assistance (1.4 times the regional level), manufacturing, and retail trade. Professional & technical services employ only 4.6% of local workers, below Greater Melbourne's 10.1%.

Employment opportunities locally may be limited, as indicated by Census data. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 3.4%, labour force by 4.4%, raising the unemployment rate by 1 percentage point to 6.1%. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced a 3.5% employment growth and a 0.5 percentage point rise in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Cranbourne East - South's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.5% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch aggregated latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2022. Cranbourne East - South had a median income among taxpayers of $52,696 and an average level of $59,461. These figures were below the national averages of $54,892 and $73,761 for Greater Melbourne respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, current estimates as of September 2025 would be approximately $59,104 (median) and $66,691 (average). According to the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes in Cranbourne East - South cluster around the 61st percentile nationally. Distribution data shows that 48.2% of residents (7,358 people) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income bracket, aligning with the surrounding region where this cohort represents 32.8%. High housing costs consume 19.6% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 58th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Cranbourne East - South is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

As per the latest Census data, in Cranbourne East - South, 91.5% of dwellings were houses while 8.5% consisted of other types such as semi-detached homes, apartments and 'other' dwellings. This is similar to Melbourne metropolitan area's dwelling structure which also had 91.5% houses and 8.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Cranbourne East - South stood at 13.2%, with mortgaged dwellings accounting for 59.7% and rented ones making up 27.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,000, exceeding Melbourne metro's average of $1,950. The median weekly rent figure in Cranbourne East - South was recorded at $401 compared to Melbourne metro's $386. Nationally, Cranbourne East - South's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were exceeding the national figure of $375.

Cranbourne East - South features high concentrations of family households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 82.2% of all households, including 50.0% couples with children, 20.6% couples without children, and 10.6% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 17.8%, with lone person households at 15.8% and group households comprising 1.9%. The median household size is 3.1 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 3.2.

The educational profile of Cranbourne East - South exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Cranbourne East - South has a university degree holder rate of 28.1% among residents aged 15+, compared to Greater Melbourne's 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 18.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.7%) and graduate diplomas (2.1%). Vocational credentials are held by 36.2% of residents, with advanced diplomas at 14.8% and certificates at 21.4%. Educational participation is high, with 34.0% currently enrolled in formal education: primary (12.4%), secondary (7.2%), and tertiary (4.5%).

The area has three schools with a combined enrollment of 2,529 students, operating under typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1030). Educational facilities include one primary school and two K-12 schools.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis shows 12 active transport stops operating in Cranbourne East - South, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by five individual routes, together providing 1,222 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of public transport is rated as moderate, with residents typically located 593 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 174 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 101 weekly trips per individual stop.

Cranbourne East - South's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Cranbourne East-South's health outcomes show notable results, with younger populations experiencing low prevalence of common conditions. Approximately half (50%) of its total population (~7,557) has private health cover, compared to Australia's average of 55.3%.

The area's most prevalent medical issues are asthma and mental health concerns, affecting 7.0% and 6.0% of residents respectively. Around 77.8% of residents report no medical ailments, slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's 76.4%. The region has a lower proportion of seniors (aged 65+), at 7.8% (1,189 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 9.6%. However, health outcomes among seniors require more attention than the broader population.

Cranbourne East - South is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Cranbourne East-South has high cultural diversity, with 47.3% of its population born overseas and 48.8% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the main religion in Cranbourne East-South, comprising 38.1%. The 'Other' category is overrepresented at 10.6%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 6.5%.

In ancestry, the top three groups are Other (25.3%), English (17.3%), and Australian (16.6%). Notable divergences include Indian (12.8% vs regional 9.2%), Samoan (2.0% vs 1.3%), and Sri Lankan (1.8% vs 2.2%).

Cranbourne East - South hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Cranbourne East - South's median age is 30 years, which is younger than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and Australia's median of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Cranbourne East - South has a higher proportion of residents aged 35-44 (21.0%) but fewer residents aged 55-64 (5.6%). This concentration of 35-44 year-olds is notably higher than the national average of 14.2%. According to post-2021 Census data, the proportion of residents aged 35-44 has increased from 18.8% to 21.0%, while those aged 45-54 have risen from 8.2% to 10.2%. Conversely, the proportion of residents aged 25-34 has decreased from 20.7% to 17.3%, and the proportion of children aged 0-4 has dropped from 11.8% to 9.6%. By 2041, demographic modeling projects significant changes in Cranbourne East - South's age profile, with the 45-54 age cohort expected to expand substantially by 2,074 people (133%), growing from 1,560 to 3,635.