Cranbourne East - South

Cranbourne East - South lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Cranbourne East - South's population was approximately 15,267 as of November 2025. This figure reflects an increase of 2,978 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 12,289. The change is inferred from ABS estimates: 15,112 in June 2024 and additional validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 2,864 persons per square kilometer, placing Cranbourne East - South in the upper quartile nationally according to AreaSearch assessments. The area's growth rate of 24.2% since the 2021 census exceeded both national (8.9%) and state averages, marking it as a regional growth leader. Interstate migration contributed approximately 63.6% of overall population gains recently.

All demographic drivers were positive factors. AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs Victorian Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population dynamics predict exceptional growth, with the area expected to increase by 10,455 persons to 2041 based on latest annual ERP numbers, reflecting a total increase of 67.5% over these 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Cranbourne East - South was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Cranbourne East - South has recorded approximately 249 residential properties granted approval annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, a total of 1,248 homes were approved, with an additional 70 approved in FY-26 as of now.

On average, about 4.3 people have moved to the area each year for every dwelling built during this period. This indicates that supply has been lagging behind demand, which typically leads to increased buyer competition and pricing pressures. The average construction cost value for new homes in the area is around $190,000, which is below regional norms, suggesting more affordable housing options are available for purchasers. Comparatively, Cranbourne East - South has seen slightly more development activity than Greater Melbourne, with a 41.0% increase per person over the five-year period.

This has helped maintain reasonable buyer options while sustaining existing property demand. However, building activity has slowed in recent years. Nationally, this activity is above average, reflecting strong developer confidence in the area. New developments consist of 91.0% detached houses and 9.0% townhouses or apartments, preserving the area's traditional suburban character with a focus on family homes that appeal to those seeking space. With around 73 people moving into the area for every dwelling approval, Cranbourne East - South exhibits characteristics of a growth area. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Cranbourne East - South is projected to add approximately 10,300 residents by 2041. Current construction rates appear balanced with future demand, fostering steady market conditions without excessive price pressure.

Cranbourne East - South has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 35thth percentile nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 31 projects that could affect the region. Notable ones include Eastleigh Estate, Elmslie Common Townhomes, Adrian Street Neighbourhood Activity Centre, and Crestwood Place Estate. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Cranbourne East - South has been broadly consistent with national averages

Cranbourne East - South has a well-educated workforce with strong representation in manufacturing and industrial sectors. The unemployment rate was 4.8% as of September 2025.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 4.9%. There are 8,051 residents currently employed, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%, which is 0.1% above Greater Melbourne's rate. Workforce participation stands at 68.5%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Key industries of employment among residents include health care & social assistance, manufacturing, and retail trade.

The area has a particular specialization in health care & social assistance, with an employment share 1.4 times the regional level. In contrast, professional & technical services employ only 4.6% of local workers, below Greater Melbourne's rate of 10.1%. Analysis of SALM and ABS data shows that during the year to September 2025, employment levels increased by 4.9%, while labour force increased by 5.4%. This resulted in a rise in unemployment rate by 0.5 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 3.0% and labour force growth of 3.3%, with an unemployment rate increase of 0.3 percentage points. State-level data to 25-Nov-25 indicates that Victoria's employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, adding 41,950 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%. This is compared to the national rate of 4.3%, where the state's employment growth outpaced the national average of 0.14%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, covering five and ten-year periods as of May-25, project a growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Cranbourne East - South's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.7% over ten years.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2022, Cranbourne East - South SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $52,696. The average income stood at $59,461, which is below the national average. In Greater Melbourne, the median and average incomes were $54,892 and $73,761 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, current estimates for Cranbourne East - South would be approximately $59,104 (median) and $66,691 (average) as of September 2025. From the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes in Cranbourne East - South cluster around the 61st percentile nationally. Distribution data shows that 48.2% of residents (7,358 people) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income bracket. This aligns with the surrounding region where this cohort also represents 32.8%. High housing costs consume 19.6% of income in Cranbourne East - South. Despite this, disposable income ranks at the 58th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Cranbourne East - South is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Cranbourne East - South, as per the latest Census, 91.5% of dwellings were houses with the remaining 8.5% being semi-detached, apartments, and other dwellings. This is similar to Melbourne metro's dwelling structure which also had 91.5% houses and 8.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Cranbourne East - South stood at 13.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 59.7% and rented ones at 27.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,000, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $1,950 but lower than the national average of $1,863. The median weekly rent in Cranbourne East - South was $401, compared to Melbourne metro's $386 and the national figure of $375.

Cranbourne East - South features high concentrations of family households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 82.2% of all households, including 50.0% couples with children, 20.6% couples without children, and 10.6% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 17.8%, with lone person households at 15.8% and group households comprising 1.9% of the total. The median household size is 3.1 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 3.2.

The educational profile of Cranbourne East - South exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Educational qualifications in Cranbourne East show that 28.1% of residents aged 15 years and over hold university degrees, compared to Greater Melbourne's 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 18.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.7%) and graduate diplomas (2.1%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 36.2% of residents holding them - advanced diplomas at 14.8% and certificates at 21.4%. Educational participation is high, with 34.0% currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 12.4% in primary education, 7.2% in secondary education, and 4.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Cranbourne East - South has 12 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by five different routes that together facilitate 1,222 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is moderate, with residents located on average 593 meters from the nearest stop.

Across all routes, an average of 174 trips per day occurs, equating to approximately 101 weekly trips per individual stop.

Cranbourne East - South's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Cranbourne East - South shows excellent health outcomes, particularly for younger age groups who have a very low prevalence of common health conditions. Approximately half (50%) of the total population (~7,557 people) has private health cover, compared to the national average of 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma and mental health issues, affecting 7.0% and 6.0% of residents respectively. A majority, 77.8%, report being completely free from medical ailments, slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's 76.4%. The area has a lower proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 7.8% (1,189 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 9.6%. However, health outcomes among seniors require more attention than the broader population.

Cranbourne East - South is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Cranbourne East-South has a high cultural diversity, with 47.3% of its population born overseas and 48.8% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Cranbourne East-South, accounting for 38.1% of the population. Notably, the 'Other' category comprises 10.6% of the population, higher than the 6.5% regional average.

In terms of ancestry, the top groups are Other (25.3%), English (17.3%), and Australian (16.6%). Some ethnic groups show significant differences: Indian is overrepresented at 12.8% compared to the regional 9.2%, Samoan at 2.0% versus 1.3%, and Sri Lankan at 1.8% against a regional average of 2.2%.

Cranbourne East - South hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Cranbourne East - South's median age is 30 years, which is younger than the Greater Melbourne average of 37 and the Australian median of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Cranbourne East - South has a higher proportion of residents aged 35-44 (21.0%), but fewer residents aged 55-64 (5.6%). The concentration of residents aged 35-44 is notably higher than the national average of 14.2%. According to post-2021 Census data, the proportion of residents aged 35 to 44 has increased from 18.8% to 21.0%, while those aged 45 to 54 have risen from 8.2% to 10.2%. Conversely, the proportion of residents aged 25 to 34 has decreased from 20.7% to 17.3%, and the proportion of residents aged 0 to 4 has dropped from 11.8% to 9.6%. Demographic modeling indicates that Cranbourne East - South's age profile is projected to change significantly by 2041, with the 45 to 54 age cohort expected to expand substantially, increasing by 2,074 people (133%) from 1,560 to 3,635.