Cranbourne East - South

Cranbourne East - South lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

As of February 2026, Cranbourne East - South's population is approximately 15,267. This figure represents a 24.2% increase from the 2021 Census population of 12,289 people. The population growth was inferred from the estimated resident population of 15,112 in June 2024 and an additional 510 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 2,864 persons per square kilometer, placing Cranbourne East - South in the upper quartile nationally according to AreaSearch's assessments. The area's growth rate exceeded both national (9.9%) and state averages since the 2021 census. Interstate migration contributed approximately 63.6% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 with adjustments made using weighted aggregation methods. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on these projections, Cranbourne East - South is predicted to experience exceptional growth, placing it in the top 10 percent nationally over the period from 2026 to 2041. The area is expected to grow by 10,455 persons by 2041, reflecting a total increase of 67.5% over the 17-year period.

The level of residential development activity in Cranbourne East - South was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Cranbourne East - South has recorded approximately 249 residential properties granted approval each year. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, a total of 1,248 homes were approved, with an additional 81 approved so far in FY-26.

On average, around 4.3 people have moved to the area for each dwelling built over these five financial years. This demand significantly outpaces supply, which typically puts upward pressure on prices and increases competition among buyers. New properties are constructed at an average expected cost of $190,000, reflecting more affordable housing options compared to regional norms. When compared to Greater Melbourne, Cranbourne East - South records elevated construction activity, with 41.0% above the regional average per person over the past five years.

This balances buyer choice while supporting current property values, though construction activity has eased recently. The area's strong developer confidence is reflected in this well-above-average national construction activity. New development consists of 91.0% detached houses and 9.0% townhouses or apartments, preserving the area's suburban nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers. With around 73 people per dwelling approval, Cranbourne East - South exhibits characteristics of a growth area. Looking ahead, Cranbourne East - South is projected to grow by approximately 10,300 residents through to 2041, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Current development appears well-matched to future needs, supporting steady market conditions without extreme price pressure.

Cranbourne East - South has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 34thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 31 projects likely to impact the area. Key projects include Eastleigh Estate, Elmslie Common Townhomes, Adrian Street Neighbourhood Activity Centre, and Crestwood Place Estate. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis indicates Cranbourne East - South maintains employment conditions that align with national benchmarks

Cranbourne East - South has a well-educated workforce with strong representation in manufacturing and industrial sectors. The unemployment rate was 4.8% as of September 2025, with an estimated employment growth of 4.9% over the past year. There are 8,051 residents currently employed, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%, which is 0.1% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate.

Workforce participation stands at 76.0%, slightly above Greater Melbourne's 71.0%. According to Census responses, 16.0% of residents work from home. Leading employment industries include health care & social assistance, manufacturing, and retail trade. The area shows significant specialization in health care & social assistance, employing 1.4 times the regional level.

However, professional & technical services employ only 4.6% of local workers, lower than Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. Over a 12-month period ending September 2025, employment increased by 4.9%, labour force grew by 5.4%, and unemployment rose by 0.5 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne saw employment grow by 3.0%, labour force expand by 3.3%, and unemployment rise by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Cranbourne East - South's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

The Cranbourne East - South SA2 has a lower than average national income level according to ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. The median income among taxpayers in this area is $55,562, with an average income of $62,286. These figures compare to Greater Melbourne's median and average incomes of $57,688 and $75,164 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, estimated current incomes would be approximately $60,146 (median) and $67,425 (average) as of September 2025. Census 2021 income data shows household, family and personal incomes in Cranbourne East - South cluster around the 61st percentile nationally. The largest segment comprises 48.2% earning $1,500 - $2,999 weekly (7,358 residents), which is consistent with broader metropolitan trends showing 32.8% in the same category. High housing costs consume 19.6% of income, however strong earnings place disposable income at the 58th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Cranbourne East - South is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Census data from Cranbourne East - South showed 91.5% houses and 8.5% other dwellings, compared to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Cranbourne East - South was 13.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 59.7% and rented ones at 27.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,000, matching Melbourne metro's average, while the median weekly rent was $401, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Cranbourne East - South's mortgage repayments exceeded the Australian average of $1,863, and rents surpassed the national figure of $375.

Cranbourne East - South features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 82.2% of all households, including 50.0% couples with children, 20.6% couples without children, and 10.6% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 17.8%, with lone person households at 15.8% and group households comprising 1.9%. The median household size is 3.1 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

The educational profile of Cranbourne East - South exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Cranbourne East's educational qualifications lag behind Greater Melbourne's regional benchmarks, with 28.1% of residents aged 15+ holding university degrees compared to the city's 37.0%. This disparity indicates potential for educational development and skill enhancement in Cranbourne East. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 18.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.7%) and graduate diplomas (2.1%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 36.2% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas comprise 14.8% while certificates account for 21.4%.

Educational participation is notably high in Cranbourne East, with 34.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 12.4% in primary education, 7.2% in secondary education, and 4.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Cranbourne East - South has 13 operational public transport stops, all serving buses. These are covered by five distinct routes, offering a combined total of 752 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as moderate, with residents on average being 593 meters from their nearest stop. As primarily residential, most commuters travel outwards. Cars remain the prevalent mode at 89%, while trains account for 6%. On average, there are 1.5 vehicles per dwelling, exceeding regional norms.

According to the 2021 Census, 16% of residents work from home, possibly due to COVID-19 conditions. Daily service frequency averages 107 trips across all routes, translating to approximately 57 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Cranbourne East - South is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a considerably higher degree among older age cohorts

Cranbourne East - South faces significant health challenges based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are somewhat prevalent across all age groups but more so among older cohorts. Approximately 50% of the total population (~7694 people) has private health cover, compared to 56.7% in Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions are asthma (7.0%) and mental health issues (6.0%). 77.8% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents have low chronic condition prevalence. 8.0% of residents are aged 65 and over (1224 people), lower than the 15.1% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges but rank lower nationally than the broader population.

Cranbourne East - South is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Cranbourne East-South has high cultural diversity, with 47.3% of its population born overseas and 48.8% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the main religion in Cranbourne East-South, comprising 38.1%. The 'Other' category is overrepresented at 10.6%, compared to Greater Melbourne's average of 2.3%.

In ancestry, 'Other' is highest at 25.3%, followed by English at 17.3% and Australian at 16.6%. Notably, Indian (12.8%), Samoan (2.0%) and Sri Lankan (1.8%) groups are overrepresented compared to regional averages of 4.2%, 0.3%, and 0.8% respectively.

Cranbourne East - South hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Cranbourne East - South's median age at 31 years is lower than the Greater Melbourne average of 37 and the Australian median of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Cranbourne East - South has a higher percentage of residents aged 35-44 (20.9%) but fewer residents aged 55-64 (5.8%). This 35-44 concentration is notably higher than the national average of 14.3%. Between 2021 and present, the population aged 45 to 54 has increased from 8.2% to 10.8%, while the 35 to 44 cohort has risen from 18.8% to 20.9%. Conversely, the 25 to 34 age group has decreased from 20.7% to 16.5%, and the 0 to 4 age group has dropped from 11.8% to 9.3%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant changes in Cranbourne East - South's age profile. The 45 to 54 age cohort is expected to expand substantially, growing by 1,989 people (121%) from 1,645 to 3,635.