Cranbourne East - South
Statistical Area - sa2

Cranbourne East - South lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

As of August 2025, Cranbourne East - South's population is approximately 15,254, reflecting a growth of 2,965 people since the 2021 Census. The population in 2021 was 12,289. This increase represents a 24.1% change from the Census figure and is inferred from ABS's estimated resident population of 15,112 in June 2024 and an additional 504 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density ratio is approximately 2,861 persons per square kilometer, placing Cranbourne East - South in the upper quartile nationally according to AreaSearch's assessments. This growth exceeds both national (8.6%) and state averages, positioning it as a regional growth leader. Interstate migration contributed about 63.6% of overall population gains during recent periods, with natural growth and overseas migration also being positive factors.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024, based on 2022 data for each SA2 area. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs Victorian State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 with adjustments made using weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future projections anticipate exceptional growth, placing Cranbourne East - South in the top 10% of statistical areas nationally. By 2041, the population is expected to increase by 10,455 persons, representing a total increase of 67.6% over the 17-year period.

The level of residential development activity in Cranbourne East - South was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Cranbourne East - South has recorded approximately 249 residential properties granted approval annually. Development approval data is produced by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on a financial year basis, showing 1,248 homes over the past five financial years between FY-2021 and FY-2025, with an additional 33 approved in FY-2026 to date. On average, around 4.3 new residents arrive per dwelling constructed each year over these five years.

This demand significantly outpaces supply, typically putting upward pressure on prices and increasing competition among buyers. New dwellings are developed at an average expected construction cost of $294,000, which is below regional norms, reflecting more affordable housing options for purchasers in the area. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Cranbourne East - South has slightly higher development activity, with 41.0% more approvals per person over the five-year period ending FY-2025. This preserves reasonable buyer options while sustaining existing property demand.

However, building activity has slowed in recent years. Nationally, this activity is well above average, indicating strong developer confidence in the area. New development consists of 91.0% detached houses and 9.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's traditional suburban character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. With approximately 73 people per dwelling approval, Cranbourne East - South exhibits characteristics of a growth area. Future projections suggest that Cranbourne East - South will add around 10,313 residents by 2041. Current construction rates appear balanced with future demand, fostering steady market conditions without excessive price pressure.

Cranbourne East - South has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Infrastructure changes significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 34 potential impact projects. Major ones are Collison Estate, Elmslie Common Townhomes, Sapphire Estate Cranbourne East, and Eastleigh Estate. The following details those likely most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Cranbourne East - South has seen below average employment performance when compared to national benchmarks

Cranbourne East - South has a well-educated workforce with strong representation in manufacturing and industrial sectors. The unemployment rate was 5.1% as of June 2024, with an estimated employment growth of 3.4%.

As of June 2025, the unemployment rate rose to 5.7%, which is 1.1% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation in Cranbourne East - South was 68.5%, slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Key industries of employment among residents are health care & social assistance, manufacturing, and retail trade. The area has a particular specialization in health care & social assistance, with an employment share of 1.4 times the regional level.

However, professional & technical services employ only 4.6% of local workers, below Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited as indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population. During the year to June 2025, employment levels increased by 3.4%, and labour force increased by 4.4%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 1.0 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 3.5% and labour force growth of 4.0%, with a 0.5 percentage point rise in unemployment rate. State-level data from Sep-25 shows Victoria's employment grew by 1.08% year-on-year, adding 39,880 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project national growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Cranbourne East - South's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.5% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data released for financial year 2022, Cranbourne East - South had a median income among taxpayers of $52,696. The average income was $59,461, which is below the national average. In Greater Melbourne, the median and average incomes were $54,892 and $73,761 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2022, current estimates for Cranbourne East - South would be approximately $58,024 (median) and $65,473 (average) as of March 2025. According to the 2021 Census, household incomes in Cranbourne East - South cluster around the 61st percentile nationally. The income distribution shows that 48.2% of residents earn between $1,500 and $2,999 (7,352 people), which is similar to the surrounding region where this cohort represents 32.8%. High housing costs consume 19.6% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 58th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Cranbourne East - South is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Census data from Cranbourne East - South shows 91.5% houses and 8.5% other dwellings. Melbourne metro has the same percentage of house ownership. Home ownership in Cranbourne East - South is at 13.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 59.7% and rented ones at 27.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment is $2,000, higher than Melbourne metro's $1,950 and the national average of $1,863. Median weekly rent in Cranbourne East - South is $401, surpassing Melbourne metro's $386 and the national figure of $375.

Cranbourne East - South features high concentrations of family households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 82.2% of all households, including 50.0% couples with children, 20.6% couples without children, and 10.6% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 17.8%, with lone person households at 15.8% and group households comprising 1.9%. The median household size is 3.1 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 3.2.

The educational profile of Cranbourne East - South exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Cranbourne East - South has a university degree attainment rate of 28.1% among residents aged 15+, compared to Greater Melbourne's 37.0%. This indicates potential for educational development and skills enhancement in the region. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 18.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.7%) and graduate diplomas (2.1%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 36.2% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications – advanced diplomas account for 14.8% and certificates for 21.4%.

Educational participation is high, with 34.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 12.4% in primary education, 7.2% in secondary education, and 4.5% pursuing tertiary education. Cranbourne East - South's three schools have a combined enrollment of 2,529 students, reflecting typical Australian school conditions with balanced educational opportunities. The region has one primary school and two K-12 schools.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Cranbourne East-South has 12 active public transport stops. All are bus stops served by five different routes. These routes together facilitate 1,222 weekly passenger trips.

The area's transport accessibility is moderate, with residents located an average of 593 meters from their nearest stop. Daily service frequency averages 174 trips across all routes, equating to about 101 weekly trips per individual stop.

Cranbourne East - South's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Health outcomes data shows notable results across Cranbourne East - South, with younger age groups showing particularly low prevalence of common health conditions. Approximately half (50%) of the total population (~7,550 people) has private health cover, compared to the national average of 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical conditions in the area are asthma and mental health issues, affecting 7.0% and 6.0% of residents respectively. A majority (77.8%) report being completely free from medical ailments, slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's 76.4%. The area has a lower proportion of seniors aged 65 and over (7.8%, or 1,188 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 9.6%. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors require more attention than the broader population.

Cranbourne East - South is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Cranbourne East-South has high cultural diversity: 47.3% of residents were born overseas, and 48.8% speak a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion, with 38.1%. 'Other' religions comprise 10.6%, higher than Greater Melbourne's 6.5%.

Top ancestry groups are Other (25.3%), English (17.3%), and Australian (16.6%). Notably, Indian (12.8% vs regional 9.2%), Samoan (2.0% vs 1.3%), and Sri Lankan (1.8% vs 2.2%) groups are overrepresented.

Cranbourne East - South hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

At 30 years, Cranbourne East - South's median age is younger than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and lower than Australia's median of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Cranbourne East - South has a higher proportion of residents aged 35-44 (21.0%) but fewer residents aged 55-64 (5.6%). This concentration of 35-44 year-olds is higher than the national average of 14.2%. According to post-2021 Census data, the proportion of residents aged 35 to 44 has increased from 18.8% to 21.0%, while those aged 45 to 54 rose from 8.2% to 10.2%. Conversely, the proportion of residents aged 25 to 34 decreased from 20.7% to 17.3% and those aged 0 to 4 dropped from 11.8% to 9.6%. Demographic modeling indicates that by 2041, Cranbourne East - South's age profile will change significantly, with the 45 to 54 age cohort projected to grow substantially, increasing by 2,076 people (133%) from 1,558 to 3,635.