Cranbourne North - East
Statistical Area - sa2

Cranbourne North - East lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Cranbourne North - East's population is around 14,252 as of Aug 2025. This reflects an increase of 1,480 people since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 12,772 people. The change was inferred from the estimated resident population of 13,678 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 164 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 2,615 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Cranbourne North - East's growth rate of 11.6% since the 2021 census exceeded the national average (8.6%) and the state's growth rate. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration which contributed approximately 53.4% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing weighted aggregation method from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking at population projections moving forward, exceptional growth is predicted over the period with the area expected to grow by 6,077 persons to 2041 based on the latest population numbers, reflecting an increase of 38.6% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Cranbourne North - East recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Cranbourne North - East has averaged approximately 28 new dwelling approvals annually. Development approval data is provided by the ABS on a financial year basis, showing 142 homes approved over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25. As of now in FY-26, there have been no dwelling approvals recorded. On average, for every home built over these five years, 11.9 new residents were added annually, indicating a significant gap between demand and supply.

This discrepancy typically leads to price growth and increased buyer competition. The average construction cost of new homes in the area is $347,000, which is lower than regional levels, suggesting more affordable housing options for buyers. Commercial approvals this financial year totalled $4.9 million, reflecting the residential character of the area. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Cranbourne North - East has shown substantially reduced construction activity, with 85.0% below the regional average per person. This constrained new construction often reinforces demand and pricing for existing homes. In terms of dwelling types, new building activity shows 15.0% detached dwellings and 85.0% medium to high-density housing. This shift towards denser development provides accessible entry options, appealing to downsizers, investors, and first-time buyers.

This represents a notable change from the area's existing housing composition, which is currently 94.0% houses. The location has approximately 7062 people per dwelling approval, indicating an established market. Future projections suggest Cranbourne North - East will add around 5,503 residents by 2041. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to keep pace with population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Cranbourne North - East has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified eleven projects likely to impact the area. Notable ones include St Peter's College - Clyde North Campus Expansion, Cranbourne East Station and Precinct, WT Business Park, and Cranbourne North (Stage 2) Precinct Structure Plan. The following list details those most relevant:.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Employment conditions in Cranbourne North - East remain below the national average according to AreaSearch analysis

Cranbourne North - East has a well-educated workforce with strong representation in manufacturing and industrial sectors. Its unemployment rate was 4.9% as of June 2025, with an estimated employment growth of 3.2% over the past year.

In June 2025, 7,432 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 0.3% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation in Cranbourne North - East was 71.2%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, retail trade, and manufacturing. The area has a particularly strong specialization in manufacturing, with an employment share 1.6 times the regional level.

Conversely, professional & technical services have lower representation at 6.0% compared to the regional average of 10.1%. Over the year to June 2025, employment increased by 3.2%, while labour force increased by 4.4%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 1.1 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 3.5% and labour force growth of 4.0%, with a 0.5 percentage point rise in unemployment rate. As of Sep-25, state-level data shows Victoria's employment grew by 1.08% year-on-year, adding 39,880 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%. National employment forecasts from May 2025 project national growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Cranbourne North - East's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.4% over five years and 13.6% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localized population projections.

The area exhibits notably strong income performance, ranking higher than 70% of areas assessed nationally through AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch aggregated ATO data for financial year 2022 indicates Cranbourne North - East had a median taxpayer income of $55,343 and an average income of $62,742. Nationally, the average was higher at $64,918. In Greater Melbourne, the figures were $54,892 (median) and $73,761 (average). By March 2025, estimated median and average incomes would be approximately $60,938 and $69,085 respectively, based on a 10.11% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2022. Census 2021 data shows household income ranks at the 77th percentile ($2,184 weekly), with personal income at the 60th percentile. The majority (45.9%) of locals earn between $1,500 and $2,999 weekly, mirroring the surrounding region's 32.8% in this bracket. High housing costs consume 18.5% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 74th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Cranbourne North - East is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Cranbourne North - East, as per the latest Census, 94.5% of dwellings were houses with the remaining 5.4% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments and other types. This is compared to Melbourne's metropolitan area where 91.5% are houses and 8.5% are other dwellings. Home ownership in Cranbourne North - East stood at 9.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 62.1% and rented ones at 28.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,029, higher than Melbourne's average of $1,950 but lower than the national average of $1,863. The median weekly rent in Cranbourne North - East was $401, slightly above Melbourne's average of $386 and the national figure of $375.

Cranbourne North - East features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 89.5% of all households, including 61.4% couples with children, 14.2% couples without children, and 12.5% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 10.5%, consisting of 8.8% lone person households and 1.6% group households. The median household size is 3.5 people, larger than Greater Melbourne's average of 3.2 people.

The educational profile of Cranbourne North - East exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's educational profile is notable regionally with university qualification rates at 32.0% among residents aged 15+, exceeding the SA3 area average of 24.6%. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 21.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (8.5%) and graduate diplomas (2.3%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 30.9% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications – advanced diplomas at 13.5% and certificates at 17.4%.

Educational participation is high, with 38.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 14.6% in primary, 10.8% in secondary, and 5.4% in tertiary education. The area's educational provision includes Tulliallan Primary School and Alkira Secondary College, serving a total of 3,432 students. Cranbourne North - East demonstrates typical Australian school conditions with balanced educational opportunities (ICSEA: 1017). Educational provision is conventional, split between one primary and one secondary institution. The area functions as an education hub with 24.1 school places per 100 residents, significantly above the regional average of 15.4, attracting students from surrounding communities.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Analysis of public transport in Cranbourne North - East indicates 29 active transport stops operating, all of which are bus stops. These stops are serviced by 7 individual routes, collectively providing 2,609 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 226 meters from the nearest transport stop.

Service frequency averages 372 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 89 weekly trips per individual stop.

Cranbourne North - East's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Cranbourne North - East shows excellent health outcomes with low prevalence rates for common conditions across all ages.

Private health cover stands at approximately 51%, slightly below the average SA2 area's rate of around 60%. The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma and mental health issues, affecting 6.3% and 4.8% of residents respectively. A total of 81.7% of residents report no medical ailments, higher than Greater Melbourne's 76.4%. In this area, 6.1% of residents are aged 65 or over (869 people), lower than the 9.6% in Greater Melbourne. Despite this smaller senior population, health outcomes among seniors require particular attention due to their strength.

Cranbourne North - East is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Cranbourne North-East has significant cultural diversity, with 58.3% speaking a language other than English at home and 53.5% born overseas by 2021 data. Christianity is the predominant religion, comprising 36.6%. Buddhism's presence is higher at 8.4%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 5.5%.

Ancestry wise, 'Other' tops at 33.2%, Australian follows at 13.6%, and Indian at 12.8%. Notably, Sri Lankan ancestry is overrepresented at 4.2% (regional average: 2.2%), Samoan at 1.2% (vs 1.3%), and Serbian at 0.7% (vs 0.5%).

Cranbourne North - East hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Cranbourne North-East has a median age of 31 years, which is lower than the Greater Melbourne average of 37 and the Australian median of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Cranbourne North-East has a higher percentage of residents aged 5-14 (18.9%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (12.3%). This concentration of 5-14 year-olds is significantly above the national average of 12.2%. Between 2021 and present, the population distribution has changed: the 45 to 54 age group increased from 11.9% to 13.9%, while the 15 to 24 cohort rose from 13.4% to 15.3%. Conversely, the 25 to 34 age group decreased from 14.3% to 12.3%, and the 0 to 4 age group dropped from 9.3% to 7.5%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests significant changes in Cranbourne North-East's age profile, with the 45 to 54 age cohort projected to expand by 1,459 people (74%), growing from 1,978 to 3,438.