Cranbourne North - East

Cranbourne North - East lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Cranbourne North - East's population is around 13,678 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 906 people (7.1%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 12,772 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 13,678 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 208 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 2,509 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, Cranbourne North - East has demonstrated resilient growth patterns with a 8.6% compound annual growth rate, outpacing the SA3 area. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which contributed approximately 53.4% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking at population projections moving forward, a significant population increase in the top quartile of national areas is forecast, with the area expected to grow by 6,077 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 44.4% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Cranbourne North - East recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Cranbourne North - East has experienced around 28 dwellings receiving development approval each year, with 142 homes approved over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 1 so far in FY-26. At an average of 11.9 new residents per year for every home built over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), supply is substantially lagging demand, which generally means heightened buyer competition leading to pricing pressures, while new properties are constructed at an average value of $181,000—below regional norms—reflecting more affordable housing options for purchasers. Additionally, $4.9 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded this financial year, suggesting the area's residential character.

Compared to Greater Melbourne, Cranbourne North - East records markedly lower building activity (85.0% below regional average per person). This scarcity of new dwellings typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties. This activity is likewise lower than nationally, reflecting market maturity and pointing to possible development constraints. New development consists of 15.0% standalone homes and 85.0% attached dwellings. This skew toward compact living offers affordable entry pathways and attracts downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. This shows a considerable change from the current housing mix (currently 94.0% houses), reflecting reduced availability of development sites and addressing shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. The location has approximately 7062 people per dwelling approval, demonstrating an established market.

Future projections show Cranbourne North - East adding 6,077 residents by 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Cranbourne North - East has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 44thth percentile nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total 10 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include WT Business Park, St Peter's College - Clyde North Campus Expansion, Casey Fields Sports and Recreation Complex with City Football Academy, and Hunt Club Village Shopping Centre Expansion, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Cranbourne North - East has seen below average employment performance when compared to national benchmarks

Cranbourne North - East possesses a well-educated workforce, with manufacturing and industrial sectors strongly represented, an unemployment rate of 5.7%, and 2.9% in estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 7,473 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 0.9% above Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%, and workforce participation is well beyond standard (78.0% compared to Greater Melbourne's 71.3%). Based on Census responses, a moderate 21.6% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

The dominant employment sectors among residents include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and manufacturing. The area demonstrates a particularly notable concentration in manufacturing, with employment levels at 1.6 times the regional average. Conversely, professional & technical services show lower representation at 6.0% versus the regional average of 10.1%. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of the Census working population versus the resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, during the year to December 2025, employment levels increased by 2.9% and the labour force increased by 4.7%, resulting in an unemployment rise of 1.6 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 2.4% and labour force growth of 2.8%, with a 0.3 percentage point rise. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Cranbourne North - East. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Cranbourne North - East's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.6% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

The Cranbourne North - East SA2 shows a median taxpayer income of $58,591 and an average of $65,864 according to the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for FY-23. This is just below the national average, contrasting with Greater Melbourne's median income of $57,688 and average income of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $63,425 (median) and $71,298 (average) as of September 2025. Census 2021 income data shows household income ranks at the 77th percentile ($2,184 weekly), while personal income sits at the 60th percentile. Distribution data shows 45.9% of the population (6,278 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income range, consistent with broader trends across regional levels showing 32.8% in the same category. High housing costs consume 18.5% of income, though strong earnings still place disposable income at the 73rd percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Cranbourne North - East is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Dwelling structure within Cranbourne North - East, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 94.5% houses and 5.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Cranbourne North - East was lagging that of Melbourne metro, at 9.7%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (62.1%) or rented (28.2%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was above the Melbourne metro average at $2,029, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $401, compared to Melbourne metro's $2,000 and $390. Nationally, Cranbourne North - East's mortgage repayments are higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are exceeding the national figure of $375.

Cranbourne North - East features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 89.5% of all households, comprising 61.4% couples with children, 14.2% couples without children, and 12.5% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 10.5%, with lone person households at 8.8% and group households comprising 1.6% of the total. The median household size of 3.5 people is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

The educational profile of Cranbourne North - East exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's educational profile stands out regionally, with university qualification rates (32.0% of residents aged 15+) exceeding the SA3 area average of 24.6%, reflecting the community's emphasis on higher education. Bachelor degrees lead at 21.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (8.5%) and graduate diplomas (2.3%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 30.9% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (13.5%) and certificates (17.4%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 38.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 14.6% in primary education, 10.8% in secondary education, and 5.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 29 active transport stops operating within Cranbourne North - East, comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 7 individual routes, collectively providing 1,568 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 226 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 91%, with 6% by train. Vehicle ownership averages 1.8 per dwelling, which is above the regional average. Some 21.6% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 224 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 54 weekly trips per individual stop.

Cranbourne North - East's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Health outcomes data demonstrates outstanding results across Cranbourne North - East, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. There is a very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups, and the rate of private health cover slightly lags that of the average SA2 area at approximately 52% of the total population (~7,098 people), compared to 56.7% across Greater Melbourne.

The most common medical conditions in the area are asthma and mental health issues, impacting 6.3% and 4.8% of residents, respectively, while 81.7% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. The area has 6.6% of residents aged 65 and over (904 people), which is lower than the 15.1% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Cranbourne North - East is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Cranbourne North - East is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country, with 58.3% of its population speaking a language other than English at home and 53.5% born overseas. The main religion in Cranbourne North - East is Christianity, which makes up 36.6% of the population. However, the most apparent overrepresentation is in Islam, which comprises 16.0% of the population, substantially higher than the Greater Melbourne average of 5.6%.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Cranbourne North - East are Other, comprising 33.2% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 14.6%, Australian, comprising 13.6% of the population, and Indian, comprising 12.8% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 4.2%. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Sri Lankan is notably overrepresented at 4.2% of Cranbourne North - East (vs 0.8% regionally), Samoan at 1.2% (vs 0.3%) and Serbian at 0.7% (vs 0.4%).

Cranbourne North - East hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

At 31 years, Cranbourne North - East's median age is notably under the Greater Melbourne average of 37 and is significantly lower than the Australian median of 38. Relative to Greater Melbourne, Cranbourne North - East has a higher concentration of 5 - 14 residents (18.5%) but fewer 25 - 34 year-olds (11.9%). This 5 - 14 concentration is well above the national 12.1%. In the period since 2021, demographic aging is evident with the median age advancing from 30 to 31 years. Notable shifts include the 45 to 54 age group, which has grown from 11.9% to 14.3% of the population, while the 15 to 24 cohort increased from 13.4% to 15.6%. Conversely, the 25 to 34 cohort has declined from 14.3% to 11.9% and the 0 to 4 group dropped from 9.3% to 7.2%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes for Cranbourne North - East. The 45 to 54 age cohort is projected to increase markedly, expanding by 1,479 people (76%) from 1,958 to 3,438.