Cranbourne North - East

Cranbourne North - East lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Cranbourne North-East's population was around 13,691 as of May 2026. This figure reflects a 7.2% increase since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 12,772 people. The change is inferred from ABS estimated resident population data of 13,691 in June 2025 and an additional 205 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 2,512 persons per square kilometer, placing Cranbourne North-East in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, from 2016 to 2026, Cranbourne North-East has demonstrated resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 6.5%, outpacing its SA3 area. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration contributing approximately 61.7% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking ahead, significant population increase is forecast, with the area expected to grow by 5,581 persons to 2041 based on latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a total increase of 40.8% over the 16 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Cranbourne North - East recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Cranbourne North - East has seen approximately 28 dwellings granted development approval annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25142 homes were approved, with one more approved in FY-26 so far. On average, each home built over these years brought in about 11.9 new residents per year.

This supply has lagged behind demand, leading to heightened buyer competition and pricing pressures. New properties are constructed at an average expected cost of $181,000, which is below regional norms, offering more affordable housing options. In FY-26, commercial development approvals totaled $4.9 million, reflecting the area's residential character. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Cranbourne North - East has markedly lower building activity, at 85.0% below the regional average per person. This scarcity of new dwellings typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties. New development consists of 15.0% standalone homes and 85.0% attached dwellings, offering affordable entry pathways and attracting downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. This is a significant shift from the current housing mix, which is currently 94.0% houses.

The location has approximately 7062 people per dwelling approval, indicating an established market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Cranbourne North - East is projected to add 5,581 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Cranbourne North - East has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 41stth percentile nationally

Eleven projects identified by AreaSearch are expected to impact the local area, significantly influencing its performance. Notable among these are WT Business Park, St Peter's College - Clyde North Campus Expansion, Casey Fields Sports and Recreation Complex with City Football Academy, and Hunt Club Village Shopping Centre Expansion. The following list details those most likely to be relevant:.

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Cranbourne North - East has seen below average employment performance when compared to national benchmarks

Cranbourne North - East has a well-educated workforce with strong representation in manufacturing and industrial sectors. Its unemployment rate was 5.7% as of December 2021, with an estimated employment growth of 2.9%. As of December 2025, 7473 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 6.7%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 4.8%.

Workforce participation is higher at 77.2% versus Greater Melbourne's 69.9%. Home-based work was reported by 21.6% of residents in the Census. The dominant employment sectors are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and manufacturing. Manufacturing has a notable concentration with levels at 1.6 times the regional average.

Conversely, professional & technical services have lower representation at 6.0%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited as indicated by the ratio of working population to resident population. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment levels increased by 2.9%, labour force by 4.7%, resulting in an unemployment rise of 1.6 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, as of May-25, project national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Cranbourne North - East's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.6% over ten years.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

The Cranbourne North - East SA2 had a median taxpayer income of $58,591 and an average income of $65,864 in the financial year 2023, according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. This is slightly below the national average, compared to Greater Melbourne's median income of $57,688 and average income of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes as of March 2026 would be approximately $64,227 (median) and $72,200 (average). Census data from 2021 shows household income ranked at the 77th percentile ($2,184 weekly), with personal income at the 60th percentile. Income distribution indicates that 45.9% of the population falls within the $1,500 - $2,999 range, consistent with broader trends across regional levels showing 32.8% in the same category. High housing costs consume 18.5% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 73rd percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Cranbourne North - East is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Census data from Cranbourne North - East indicated that 94.5% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 5.4% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. This differed from Melbourne's metropolitan area, where 67.9% of dwellings were houses. Home ownership in Cranbourne North - East was at 9.7%, compared to mortgaged dwellings at 62.1% and rented ones at 28.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,029, exceeding Melbourne's average of $2,000. Weekly rent in Cranbourne North - East was recorded at $401, compared to Melbourne's $390. Nationally, mortgage repayments averaged $1,863 and rents were $375.

Cranbourne North - East features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 89.5% of all households, including 61.4% couples with children, 14.2% couples without children, and 12.5% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 10.5%, with lone person households at 8.8% and group households comprising 1.6%. The median household size is 3.5 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

The educational profile of Cranbourne North - East exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 32.0%, exceeding the SA3 average of 24.6%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 21.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (8.5%) and graduate diplomas (2.3%). Vocational credentials are held by 30.9% of residents aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 13.5% and certificates at 17.4%.

Educational participation is high, with 38.9% currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 14.6% in primary, 10.8% in secondary, and 5.4% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Cranbourne North - East has 29 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by seven different routes that together facilitate 1,568 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is deemed good, with residents on average located 226 meters from their nearest transport stop. As a predominantly residential region, most inhabitants commute outward. Cars remain the primary mode of transportation, used by 91% of residents, while trains are employed by 6%. On average, there are 1.8 vehicles per dwelling in Cranbourne North - East, which is higher than the regional norm.

According to the 2021 Census, 21.6% of residents work from home, a figure that might be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency across all routes averages 224 trips per day, equating to roughly 54 weekly trips per individual stop.

Cranbourne North - East's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Cranbourne North - East shows excellent health outcomes based on AreaSearch's evaluation of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence, with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups. The rate of private health cover is approximately 52% of the total population (~7,105 people), slightly lower than the average SA2 area's 56.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma at 6.3%, and mental health issues at 4.8%. A total of 81.7% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to Greater Melbourne's 72.6%. In this area, 6.5% of residents are aged 65 and over (896 people), lower than Greater Melbourne's 15.0%. Health outcomes among seniors align with the general population, ranking nationally in line with them.

Cranbourne North - East is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Cranbourne North-East has a culturally diverse population, with 58.3% speaking a language other than English at home and 53.5% born overseas. Christianity is the predominant religion in Cranbourne North-East, comprising 36.6% of its population. However, Islam is significantly overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne's average, making up 16.0%.

The top three ancestry groups are Other (33.2%), Australian (13.6%), and Indian (12.8%). Notably, Sri Lankan (4.2%), Samoan (1.2%), and Serbian (0.7%) ethnicities have higher representations than the regional averages in Cranbourne North-East.

Cranbourne North - East hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Cranbourne North-East's median age in 2021 was 31 years, which is lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and Australia's median of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Cranbourne North-East had a higher proportion of residents aged 5-14 (17.9%) but fewer residents aged 65-74 (3.9%). This 5-14 concentration was significantly higher than the national average of 12.0%. From 2021 to present, demographic aging has been observed with the median age increasing from 30 to 31 years. During this period, the proportion of residents aged 15-24 increased from 13.4% to 15.7%, while those aged 45-54 rose from 11.9% to 14.1%. Conversely, the proportion of residents aged 0-4 decreased from 9.3% to 7.1%, and those aged 5-14 dropped from 20.1% to 17.9%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate significant demographic changes in Cranbourne North-East, with the 45-54 age cohort projected to increase by 1,370 people (71%), from 1,935 to 3,306 residents.