Cranbourne East

Cranbourne East lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates, the estimated population of Cranbourne East as of Nov 2025 is around 28,468. This reflects an increase of 3,789 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 24,679. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimated resident population of 28,263 as of June 2024 and an additional 544 validated new addresses since the Census date. This equates to a density ratio of 2,146 persons per square kilometer, above the national average assessed by AreaSearch. Cranbourne East's growth rate of 15.4% since the 2021 census exceeded both the national average (8.9%) and state average. Natural growth contributed approximately 41.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, with all drivers including overseas migration and interstate migration being positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering projected demographic shifts, exceptional growth is predicted over the period with the suburb expected to increase by 17,378 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 59.6% in total over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Cranbourne East was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data shows Cranbourne East averaged approximately 304 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 1,523 homes. As of FY-26, 64 approvals have been recorded. On average, 3.8 new residents arrive per year per dwelling constructed between FY-21 and FY-25. This indicates supply is lagging demand, potentially leading to heightened buyer competition and pricing pressures.

The average construction value for new homes is $297,000, lower than regional levels, suggesting more affordable housing choices. In FY-26, $1.4 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, indicating a predominantly residential focus. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Cranbourne East has 17.0% lower construction activity per person but ranks among the 80th percentile nationally, showing robust developer interest. Recent construction comprises 91.0% detached houses and 9.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's suburban character focused on family homes.

The location has approximately 140 people per dwelling approval, indicating an expanding market. Population forecasts estimate Cranbourne East will gain 16,969 residents by 2041. Construction is keeping pace with projected growth, but buyers may face growing competition as population increases.

Cranbourne East has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 47 projects that could impact this region. Notable projects include Clyde North Fire Station, WILMAC Clyde North, Eastleigh Estate, and Pavilion Casey Fields. The following details projects likely to be most relevant.

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Cranbourne East has seen below average employment performance when compared to national benchmarks

Cranbourne East has a skilled workforce with manufacturing and industrial sectors well-represented. Its unemployment rate was 5.4% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 3.0%.

As of June 2025, 14,108 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 5.4%, 0.8% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation is similar to Greater Melbourne's at 64.1%. The leading employment industries among residents include health care & social assistance, manufacturing, and retail trade. Health care & social assistance has particularly notable concentration with employment levels at 1.4 times the regional average.

However, professional & technical services are under-represented, with only 4.4% of Cranbourne East's workforce compared to Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities based on Census data. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment increased by 3.0%, while labour force grew by 4.5%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 1.4 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne saw employment grow by 3.5%, labour force expand by 4.0%, and unemployment rise by 0.5 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Cranbourne East's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.5% over ten years, based on simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

Cranbourne East had a median taxpayer income of $49,993 and an average of $56,345 based on the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2022. These figures are below the national averages of $54,892 (median) and $73,761 (average). By September 2025, estimated median income would be approximately $56,072 and average income around $63,197, assuming a Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022. According to census data, household income ranks at the 59th percentile ($1,912 weekly) and personal income at the 43rd percentile. The earnings profile shows that 45.3% of residents (12,896 people) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket, similar to regional patterns where 32.8% occupy this range. High housing costs consume 19.5% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 55th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Cranbourne East is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Cranbourne East's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 88.6% houses and 11.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This contrasts with Melbourne metro's figures of 91.5% houses and 8.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Cranbourne East stood at 16.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 59.4% and rented ones at 24.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,000, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $1,950. The median weekly rent in Cranbourne East was $400, compared to Melbourne metro's $386. Nationally, Cranbourne East's mortgage repayments exceeded the Australian average of $1,863, while rents surpassed the national figure of $375.

Cranbourne East features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 84.0% of all households, including 53.6% couples with children, 18.1% couples without children, and 11.3% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 16.0%, consisting of 14.1% lone person households and 2.0% group households. The median household size is 3.3 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 3.2.

The educational profile of Cranbourne East exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 25.9%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 16.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.1%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 34.4% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (13.7%) and certificates (20.7%). Educational participation is high at 36.4%, with 13.9% in primary education, 9.1% in secondary education, and 4.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Eight schools operate in Cranbourne East, educating approximately 7,411 students, with typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1033). The educational mix includes three primary, one secondary, and four K-12 schools. The area functions as an education hub with 26.0 school places per 100 residents, significantly above the regional average of 15.4, attracting students from surrounding communities. Note: where schools show 'n/a' for enrolments, please refer to the parent campus.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Cranbourne East has 56 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 8 different routes that together facilitate 2,491 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents located an average of 394 meters from the nearest stop.

Across all routes, service frequency averages 355 trips per day, equating to about 44 weekly trips per individual stop.

Cranbourne East's residents are extremely healthy with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics indicates strong performance throughout Cranbourne East, particularly for younger cohorts who exhibit very low prevalence of common health conditions. The rate of private health cover stands at approximately 49% of the total population (~13,997 people), compared to the national average of 55.3%.

Asthma and mental health issues are the most prevalent medical conditions in the area, affecting 6.8% and 5.8% of residents respectively. A significant majority, 77.5%, report being completely clear of medical ailments, slightly higher than the Greater Melbourne average of 76.4%. The area has a senior population of 10.0% (2,846 people), aged 65 and over. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges that require more attention compared to the broader population.

Cranbourne East is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Cranbourne East has a high level of cultural diversity, with 50.2% of its population speaking a language other than English at home and 48.2% born overseas. Christianity is the predominant religion in Cranbourne East, comprising 37.6% of the population. The category 'Other' is overrepresented in Cranbourne East compared to Greater Melbourne, with 10.8% versus 6.5%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups are Other (26.1%), English (16.7%), and Australian (16.5%). There are notable differences in the representation of certain ethnic groups: Indian is overrepresented at 13.4%, Sri Lankan is underrepresented at 1.6% compared to regional figures, and Samoan is slightly overrepresented at 1.7%.

Cranbourne East hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Cranbourne East has a median age of 32 years, which is younger than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and significantly lower than Australia's national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Cranbourne East has a higher proportion of residents aged 5-14 (17.6%) but fewer residents aged 55-64 (6.5%). This 5-14 concentration is notably higher than the national average of 12.2%. According to data from the 2021 Census, Cranbourne East's population has shifted since then: the 45-54 age group has increased from 10.0% to 11.2%, while the 25-34 cohort has decreased from 15.4% to 13.2%. Additionally, the 0-4 age group has dropped from 9.4% to 7.8%. By 2041, demographic modeling predicts significant changes in Cranbourne East's age profile. The 45-54 cohort is projected to grow by 102%, adding 3,252 residents and reaching a total of 6,441.