Cranbourne East

Cranbourne East lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, the suburb of Cranbourne East's population is estimated at around 28,817 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 4,138 people (16.8%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 24,679 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 28,696, estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 546 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 2,173 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Cranbourne East's 16.8% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the national average (9.9%), along with the state, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by natural growth that contributed approximately 41.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers including overseas migration and interstate migration were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Moving forward with demographic trends, exceptional growth is predicted over the period, placing the suburb in the top 10 percent of national statistical areas. It is expected to expand by 17,221 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 57.1% in total over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Cranbourne East was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers in Cranbourne East shows approximately 303 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 1519 homes. By June 26th 2026, 95 approvals have been recorded. On average, 3.8 new residents arrive per dwelling constructed each year between FY-21 and FY-25. This suggests supply is lagging demand, potentially leading to heightened buyer competition and pricing pressures.

The average construction cost of new properties is $299000, in line with regional trends. In the current financial year, $1400000 in commercial development approvals have been recorded, indicating minimal commercial development activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Cranbourne East records 18% less building activity per person but places among the 81st percentile nationally, reflecting strong developer confidence. New development consists of 92% standalone homes and 8% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's suburban character focused on family homes.

With around 136 people per dwelling approval, Cranbourne East shows characteristics of a growth area. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Cranbourne East is projected to add 16457 residents by 2041. Construction pace is maintaining with projected growth, though buyers may encounter growing competition as population increases.

Cranbourne East has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 47 projects that may impact this region. Notable initiatives include WILMAC Clyde North, Eastleigh Estate, Pavilion Casey Fields, and Orana Village Town Centre. The following list provides details on projects likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Cranbourne East remain below the national average according to AreaSearch analysis

Cranbourne East has a skilled workforce with manufacturing and industrial sectors prominently represented. The unemployment rate was 5.3% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 4.1%. As of September 2025, 14,326 residents were employed, while the unemployment rate was 0.7% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%.

Workforce participation was on par with Greater Melbourne at 71.0%. According to Census responses, 16.0% of residents worked from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Key industries of employment among residents were health care & social assistance, manufacturing, and retail trade. Health care & social assistance had notable concentration with employment levels at 1.4 times the regional average.

Professional & technical services had limited presence with 4.4% employment compared to 10.1% regionally. The area appeared to offer limited local employment opportunities based on Census working population vs resident population comparison. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 4.1%, while labour force grew by 5.2%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 1.0 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment rise by 3.0%, labour force grow by 3.3%, and unemployment increase by 0.3 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, released in May-25, projected national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Cranbourne East's employment mix suggested local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.5% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

The suburb of Cranbourne East had an income level below the national average according to ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year ended June 2023. The median income among taxpayers in Cranbourne East was $50,034 and the average income stood at $56,391. These figures compared to those for Greater Melbourne of $57,688 and $75,164 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since June 2023, current estimates would be approximately $54,162 (median) and $61,043 (average) as of September 2025. Census data from 2021 showed household income ranked at the 59th percentile ($1,912 weekly), while personal income was at the 43rd percentile. Income analysis revealed that 45.3% of locals (13,054 people) fell into the $1,500 - 2,999 category, consistent with broader trends across regional levels showing 32.8% in the same category. High housing costs consumed 19.5% of income, but strong earnings placed disposable income at the 55th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 5th decile.

Cranbourne East is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

In Cranbourne East, as per the latest Census, 88.6% of dwellings were houses while 11.4% consisted of other types such as semi-detached units and apartments. This is in contrast to Melbourne metro's figures which showed 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Cranbourne East stood at 16.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 59.4% and rented ones at 24.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,000, matching Melbourne metro's average. However, the median weekly rent figure was higher at $400 compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Cranbourne East's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863 and rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Cranbourne East features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 84.0% of all households, including 53.6% couples with children, 18.1% couples without children, and 11.3% single parent families. Non-family households account for 16.0%, consisting of 14.1% lone person households and 2.0% group households. The median household size is 3.3 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

The educational profile of Cranbourne East exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 25.9%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 16.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.1%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 34.4% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (13.7%) and certificates (20.7%). Educational participation is high at 36.4%, comprising 13.9% in primary education, 9.1% in secondary education, and 4.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 36.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 13.9% in primary education, 9.1% in secondary education, and 4.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Cranbourne East has 61 operational public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by eight different routes that collectively facilitate 1,513 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is deemed good, with residents typically situated 391 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a predominantly residential region, most inhabitants commute outward. Cars remain the primary mode of transportation, used by 89% of residents, while train usage stands at 6%. On average, there are 1.6 vehicles per dwelling, exceeding the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 16% of residents work from home, a figure that may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. Across all routes, an average of 216 trips are made daily, equating to approximately 24 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health outcomes in Cranbourne East are marginally below the national average with the level of common health conditions among the general population somewhat typical, though higher than the nation's average among older cohorts

Cranbourne East shows below-average health indicators based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The level of common health conditions among the general population is somewhat typical but higher than the national average among older cohorts. Private health cover stands at approximately 49% of the total population (~14,175 people), lower than Greater Melbourne's 56.7% and the national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions are asthma (6.8%) and mental health issues (5.8%), with 77.5% reporting no medical ailments compared to Greater Melbourne's 72.6%. Working-age residents have low chronic condition prevalence, but seniors present some challenges despite ranking lower nationally than the broader population. The area has 10.6% of residents aged 65 and over (3,054 people), lower than Greater Melbourne's 15.1%.

Cranbourne East is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Cranbourne East has a high cultural diversity, with 50.2% of its residents speaking a language other than English at home and 48.2% born overseas. Christianity is the predominant religion, comprising 37.6% of Cranbourne East's population. Notably, the 'Other' religious category comprises 10.8%, significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 2.3%.

In terms of ancestry, the top groups are Other at 26.1%, English at 16.7%, and Australian at 16.5%. Some ethnic groups have notable representation: Indian at 13.4% (compared to 4.2% regionally), Sri Lankan at 1.6% (vs 0.8%), and Samoan at 1.7% (vs 0.3%).

Cranbourne East hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Cranbourne East has a median age of 32 years, which is younger than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and significantly lower than Australia's national average of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Cranbourne East has a higher percentage of residents aged 5-14 (17.3%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (12.6%). This concentration of 5-14 year-olds is well above the national average of 12.1%. According to post-2021 Census data, the population aged 45 to 54 has grown from 10.0% to 11.5%, while those aged 55 to 64 increased from 5.6% to 6.7%. Conversely, the percentage of residents aged 25 to 34 has declined from 15.4% to 12.6%, and the 0 to 4 age group dropped from 9.4% to 7.5%. Demographic modeling indicates that Cranbourne East's age profile will significantly change by 2041, with the strongest projected growth in the 45 to 54 cohort, which is expected to increase by 94%, adding 3,107 residents and reaching a total of 6,421.