Cranbourne East

Cranbourne East lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Based on ABS population updates and AreaSearch validations, as of May 2026, Cranbourne East's estimated population is around 29,720. This reflects an increase of 5,041 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 24,679. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of 29,719 residents following examination of ABS's latest ERP data release (June 2025) and an additional 596 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 2,241 persons per square kilometer, above national averages assessed by AreaSearch. Cranbourne East's growth rate of 20.4% since the 2021 census exceeded both state (9.3%) and national averages. Natural growth contributed approximately 41.0% to overall population gains recently, with all migration drivers being positive factors.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 adjusted employing weighted aggregation method for areas not covered by ABS data. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. According to these trends, Cranbourne East is predicted to experience exceptional growth, placing it in the top 10 percent of national statistical areas, with an expected expansion of 16,821 persons by 2041, reflecting a gain of 56.6% over the 16-year period.

The level of residential development activity in Cranbourne East was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Between FY-21 and FY-25, Cranbourne East had approximately 304 new homes approved annually, totaling around 1,520 homes. As of FY-26180 approvals have been recorded. On average, 3.9 new residents arrived per dwelling constructed over the past five financial years. This supply lagged demand, indicating heightened buyer competition and pricing pressures.

New properties were constructed at an average expected cost of $299,000, aligning with regional trends. In FY-26, $1.4 million in commercial development approvals were recorded, suggesting minimal commercial activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Cranbourne East had 19.0% less building activity per person but ranked among the 80th percentile nationally, reflecting strong developer confidence. New developments consisted of 92.0% standalone homes and 8.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's suburban character focused on family homes.

With around 139 people per dwelling approval, Cranbourne East exhibited growth area characteristics. Future projections estimated an addition of 16,818 residents by 2041, with construction pace maintaining reasonable growth despite potential increasing buyer competition as population grows.

Cranbourne East has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 49 projects likely to impact the area. Notable ones include Clyde North Fire Station, WILMAC Clyde North, Pavilion Casey Fields, and Eastleigh Estate. The following details projects expected to have the most relevance.

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Employment conditions in Cranbourne East remain below the national average according to AreaSearch analysis

Cranbourne East has a skilled workforce with strong representation in manufacturing and industrial sectors. The unemployment rate was 5.4% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 5.0%. As of December 2025, there were 15,155 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 5.4%, which is 0.6% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%.

Workforce participation was similar to Greater Melbourne's at 69.9%. According to Census responses, 16.0% of residents worked from home. The key industries of employment were health care & social assistance, manufacturing, and retail trade. Health care & social assistance had particularly notable concentration with employment levels at 1.4 times the regional average.

Professional & technical services had limited presence with 4.4% employment compared to 10.1% regionally. The area appeared to offer limited local employment opportunities as indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment levels increased by 5.0%, labour force increased by 5.9%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.9 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment rise by 2.4%, labour force grow by 2.8%, and unemployment rise by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest potential future demand within Cranbourne East. National employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Cranbourne East's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.5% over ten years.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

The suburb of Cranbourne East had a median income among taxpayers of $50,034 and an average income of $56,391 in the financial year 2023. These figures were below Greater Melbourne's median income of $57,688 and average income of $75,164 during the same period. Based on a Wage Price Index growth rate of 9.62% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes for March 2026 would be approximately $54,847 (median) and $61,816 (average). According to Census 2021 income data, household income ranked at the 59th percentile ($1,912 weekly), while personal income was at the 43rd percentile. Income analysis showed that 45.3% of locals (13,463 people) fell into the $1,500 - 2,999 income category, which was consistent with broader trends across regional levels showing 32.8% in the same category. High housing costs consumed 19.5% of income, but strong earnings still placed disposable income at the 55th percentile.

Cranbourne East is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

The latest Census showed that in Cranbourne East, 88.6% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 11.4% being semi-detached, apartments, or other types. This compares to Melbourne metro's figures of 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Cranbourne East was at 16.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 59.4% and rented ones at 24.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,000, aligning with Melbourne metro's average, while median weekly rent was $400 compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Cranbourne East's mortgage repayments exceeded the Australian average of $1,863, and rents surpassed the national figure of $375.

Cranbourne East features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 84.0% of all households, including 53.6% couples with children, 18.1% couples without children, and 11.3% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 16.0%, with lone person households at 14.1% and group households comprising 2.0%. The median household size is 3.3 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

The educational profile of Cranbourne East exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 25.9%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 16.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.1%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 34.4% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (13.7%) and certificates (20.7%). Educational participation is high, with 36.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including primary (13.9%), secondary (9.1%), and tertiary (4.4%) levels.

Educational participation is notably high, with 36.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 13.9% in primary education, 9.1% in secondary education, and 4.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Cranbourne East has 61 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are serviced by eight different routes that together facilitate 1,513 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 391 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to Cranbourne East being primarily residential. Cars remain the dominant mode of transport at 89%, while only 6% use trains for commuting. On average, there are 1.6 vehicles per dwelling in the area, which is higher than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 16% of residents work from home, a figure that may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency averages 216 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 24 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health outcomes in Cranbourne East are marginally below the national average with the level of common health conditions among the general population somewhat typical, though higher than the nation's average among older cohorts

Cranbourne East shows below-average health outcomes based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The level of common health conditions among its general population is somewhat typical but higher than the national average among older cohorts. Private health cover stands at approximately 49% of the total population (~14,619 people), which is lower than Greater Melbourne's 56.7% and the national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions are asthma (6.8%) and mental health issues (5.8%). 77.5% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents have low chronic condition prevalence. The area has 10.9% of residents aged 65 and over (3,239 people), lower than Greater Melbourne's 15.0%. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges but rank lower nationally than the broader population.

Cranbourne East is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Cranbourne East has high cultural diversity, with 50.2% speaking a language other than English at home and 48.2% born overseas. Christianity is the main religion, comprising 37.6%. The 'Other' category is overrepresented at 10.8%, much higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 2.3%.

In ancestry, 'Other' is highest at 26.1%, followed by English at 16.7% and Australian at 16.5%. Indian (13.4%), Sri Lankan (1.6%) and Samoan (1.7%) groups are notably overrepresented compared to regional averages of 4.2%, 0.8% and 0.3% respectively.

Cranbourne East hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Cranbourne East has a median age of 32 years, which is younger than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and significantly lower than Australia's national average of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Cranbourne East has a higher proportion of residents aged 5-14 (16.7%) but fewer residents aged 55-64 (6.7%). According to data from the post-2021 Census, the age group of 45-54 has increased from 10.0% to 11.4%, while the 55-64 cohort has risen from 5.6% to 6.7%. Conversely, the 0-4 age group has decreased from 9.4% to 7.3%, and the 5-14 group has dropped from 17.9% to 16.7%. Demographic modeling indicates that Cranbourne East's age profile will significantly shift by 2041, with the strongest projected growth in the 45-54 age cohort, which is expected to grow by 93%, adding 3,137 residents and reaching a total of 6,526.