Cranbourne East

Cranbourne East lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

The population of Cranbourne East statistical area as of November 2025 is estimated at around 28,813 people. This reflects an increase of 4,134 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 24,679 people in the Cranbourne East (SA2). The change is inferred from the resident population of 28,696 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS on June 2024 and an additional 544 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 2,172 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Cranbourne East's growth rate of 16.8% since the 2021 census exceeded the national average (9.7%) and the state average, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Natural growth contributed approximately 41.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers including overseas migration and interstate migration were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering the projected demographic shifts, exceptional growth is predicted over the period with the area expected to increase by 17,226 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 57.2% in total over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Cranbourne East was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Cranbourne East averaged approximately 303 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 1519 homes. As of FY26, 95 approvals have been recorded. On average, 3.8 new residents arrive per year per dwelling constructed between FY21 and FY25. Commercial development approvals this financial year totalled $1400000, indicating a predominantly residential focus.

Compared to Greater Melbourne, Cranbourne East has 17.0% lower construction activity per person but ranks in the 81st percentile nationally, suggesting robust developer interest. Recent construction comprises 92.0% detached houses and 8.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's suburban character with a focus on family homes. The location has approximately 136 people per dwelling approval, indicating an expanding market. Population forecasts estimate Cranbourne East will gain 16472 residents by 2041.

Construction pace is keeping up with projected growth, but buyers may face increasing competition as population grows.

Cranbourne East has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 47 projects that could impact the region. Notable projects include Wilmac Clyde North, Eastleigh Estate, Pavilion Casey Fields, and Orana Village Town Centre. The following details projects likely to have the most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Cranbourne East has seen below average employment performance when compared to national benchmarks

Cranbourne East's skilled workforce has manufacturing and industrial sectors well-represented with an unemployment rate of 5.3% as of September 2025. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 4.1%.

The area has 14,345 residents in work, with an unemployment rate of 5.4%, slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's 4.7%. Workforce participation is similar to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Leading employment industries are health care & social assistance, manufacturing, and retail trade. Health care & social assistance is particularly notable, with employment levels at 1.4 times the regional average.

However, professional & technical services are under-represented, with only 4.4% of Cranbourne East's workforce compared to Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. Over the year to September 2025, employment increased by 4.1%, while labour force grew by 5.2%, raising the unemployment rate by 1.0 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne saw employment grow by 3.0% and unemployment rise by 0.3 percentage points. State-level data to 25-Nov shows Victoria's employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%. National employment forecasts from May-25 project national growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Cranbourne East's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.5% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

Cranbourne East suburb has a median taxpayer income of $50,034 and an average income of $56,391, based on the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. This is lower than the national average, with Greater Melbourne's median income being $57,688 and average income at $75,164. Considering an 8.25% growth in wages since financial year 2023, estimated incomes for September 2025 would be approximately $54,162 (median) and $61,043 (average). According to census data, household income ranks at the 59th percentile ($1,912 weekly), while personal income is at the 43rd percentile. The earnings profile shows that 45.3% of residents (13,052 people) fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket, reflecting regional patterns where 32.8% occupy this range. High housing costs consume 19.5% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 55th percentile. The suburb's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Cranbourne East is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Census data from Cranbourne East shows 88.6% houses and 11.4% other dwellings, compared to Melbourne metro's 91.5% houses and 8.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Cranbourne East was 16.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 59.4% and rented ones at 24.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,000, higher than Melbourne metro's $1,950 and the Australian average of $1,863. Median weekly rent in Cranbourne East was $400, exceeding Melbourne metro's $386 and the national figure of $375.

Cranbourne East features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 84.0% of all households, including 53.6% couples with children, 18.1% couples without children, and 11.3% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 16.0%, with lone person households at 14.1% and group households making up 2.0%. The median household size is 3.3 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 3.2.

The educational profile of Cranbourne East exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 25.9%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 16.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.1%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 34.4% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (13.7%) and certificates (20.7%). Educational participation is high, with 36.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 13.9% in primary, 9.1% in secondary, and 4.4% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 36.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 13.9% in primary education, 9.1% in secondary education, and 4.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Cranbourne East has 61 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 8 different routes that together facilitate 1,513 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these transport services is rated as good, with residents on average being located 391 meters from the nearest stop.

On a daily basis, there are an average of 216 trips across all routes, which equates to approximately 24 weekly trips per individual stop.

Cranbourne East's residents are extremely healthy with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Cranbourne East, with younger cohorts seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions. The rate of private health cover is relatively low at approximately 49% of the total population (~14,173 people), compared to the national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are asthma and mental health issues, impacting 6.8 and 5.8% of residents respectively. A total of 77.5% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 76.4% across Greater Melbourne. As of 2016, 10.1% of residents are aged 65 and over (2,910 people). Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges requiring more attention than the broader population.

Cranbourne East is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Cranbourne East has high cultural diversity, with 50.2% speaking a language other than English at home and 48.2% born overseas. Christianity is the main religion, comprising 37.6%. The 'Other' category is overrepresented at 10.8%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 6.5%.

In ancestry, 'Other' leads at 26.1%, followed by English (16.7%) and Australian (16.5%). Indian (13.4%), Sri Lankan (1.6%), and Samoan (1.7%) groups are notably overrepresented in Cranbourne East compared to regional averages of 9.2%, 2.2%, and 1.3% respectively.

Cranbourne East hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Cranbourne East's median age is 32 years, which is lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and the national average of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Cranbourne East has a higher percentage of residents aged 5-14 (17.6%) but fewer residents aged 55-64 (6.4%). This 5-14 concentration is above the national average of 12.2%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 45 to 54 age group has increased from 10.0% to 11.2% of the population. Meanwhile, the 25 to 34 cohort has decreased from 15.4% to 13.2%, and the 0 to 4 group has dropped from 9.4% to 7.8%. Demographic modeling indicates that Cranbourne East's age profile will significantly change by 2041, with the 45 to 54 cohort projected to grow by 99%, adding 3,190 residents to reach a total of 6,418.