Cranbourne North

Cranbourne North lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

As of November 2025, the estimated population of Cranbourne North is around 26,741, reflecting an increase of 2,058 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 24,683. This change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of 26,007 residents following examination of ABS ERP data released in June 2024 and an additional 234 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density is approximately 2,611 persons per square kilometer, placing Cranbourne North in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, ending in 2025, Cranbourne North has demonstrated resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 3.7%, outpacing its SA4 region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 54.0% of overall population gains during recent periods. For future projections until 2041, AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 for covered areas and VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 for areas not covered by this data.

Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on these aggregated SA2-level projections, Cranbourne North is expected to increase its population by 9,394 persons to 2041, reflecting a total increase of 32.4% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Cranbourne North recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers derived from statistical area data, Cranbourne North has received approximately 43 residential property approvals annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, around 219 homes were approved, with one more approved in FY26 so far. Each year, an average of 7.3 people have moved into the area for each dwelling built during these five years.

This supply has substantially lagged demand, indicating heightened buyer competition and pricing pressures. New homes are being constructed at an average cost of $350,000, which is below regional norms, offering more affordable housing options. In FY26, there have been $380,000 in commercial approvals, suggesting a predominantly residential focus. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Cranbourne North has significantly less development activity, 89.0% below the regional average per person. This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established homes. This trend is also seen nationally, reflecting market maturity and possible development constraints. New development consists of 29.0% detached houses and 71.0% townhouses or apartments, indicating a shift towards higher-density living to create more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers.

This represents a notable change from the area's existing housing composition, which is currently 95.0% houses. With around 1479 people per dwelling approval, Cranbourne North reflects a highly mature market. Looking ahead, AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate projects that Cranbourne North will grow by approximately 8660 residents by 2041. If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Cranbourne North has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

The performance of a region can significantly be influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified 25 such projects that are expected to impact the area. Notable among these are WT Business Park, Summerset Cranbourne North, Kala Primary School, and Cranbourne North Stage 2 Precinct Structure Plan. The following list details those projects likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Cranbourne North has seen below average employment performance when compared to national benchmarks

Cranbourne North has a skilled workforce with strong representation in manufacturing and industrial sectors. Its unemployment rate was 6.1% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 2.9%.

As of June 2025, 13,832 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 1.5% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation stands at 67.5%, close to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. The dominant employment sectors include health care & social assistance, manufacturing, and construction. Manufacturing particularly is specialized with an employment share 1.7 times the regional level.

However, professional & technical services employ only 5.5% of local workers, lower than Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited as indicated by Census data comparing working population to resident population. Over the year to June 2025, employment increased by 2.9%, while labour force grew by 4.4%, leading to an unemployment rise of 1.4 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne saw employment grow by 3.5% and labour force by 4.0%, with unemployment rising 0.5 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Cranbourne North's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.2% over five years and 13.1% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

Cranbourne North had a median taxpayer income of $51,011 and an average of $57,830 according to the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2022. This is lower than national averages, with Greater Melbourne having a median income of $54,892 and an average income of $73,761. By September 2025, based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16%, estimated incomes would be approximately $57,214 (median) and $64,862 (average). Census data shows household, family, and personal incomes in Cranbourne North are at the 54th percentile nationally. Income distribution reveals that the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket is dominant with 42.9% of residents (11,471 people), similar to metropolitan regions where this cohort represents 32.8%. Housing costs consume 18.2% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 59th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 4th decile.

Cranbourne North is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Census data from Cranbourne North shows 95.1% houses and 4.9% other dwellings, compared to Melbourne metro's 91.5% houses and 8.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Cranbourne North was 16.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 57.5% and rented ones at 26.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,900, below Melbourne metro's $1,950. Median weekly rent in Cranbourne North was $385, slightly higher than Melbourne metro's $386. Nationally, Cranbourne North's mortgage repayments exceeded the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were higher than the national figure of $375.

Cranbourne North features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 84.4% of all households, including 51.8% couples with children, 17.6% couples without children, and 13.7% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 15.6%, with lone person households at 13.5% and group households making up 2.2%. The median household size is 3.3 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 3.2.

Cranbourne North performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

The area's university qualification rate is 25.0%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 16.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.3%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 33.6% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas (12.6%) and certificates (21.0%). Educational participation is high at 36.0%, including 13.2% in primary education, 9.8% in secondary education, and 4.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Six schools operate within Cranbourne North, educating approximately 5,323 students, with typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1001) and balanced educational opportunities. Four primary and two secondary schools serve distinct age groups, with a school capacity exceeding residential needs (19.9 places per 100 residents vs regional average of 15.4), indicating the area serves as an educational hub for the broader region. Note: where schools show 'n/a' for enrolments, please refer to parent campus.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Cranbourne North has 79 active public transport stops operating within its boundaries. These stops offer a mix of train and bus services, with 10 individual routes collectively providing 4,128 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 217 meters from the nearest transport stop.

Service frequency averages 589 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 52 weekly trips per individual stop.

Cranbourne North's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Cranbourne North's health outcomes show notable results, with younger age groups having low prevalence rates for common conditions. Approximately half (50%) of its total population (~13,303 people) has private health cover, below the national average of 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical issues are asthma and mental health concerns, affecting 7.3% and 6.6% of residents respectively. A majority (76.7%) report being free from medical ailments, slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's 76.4%. The area has a lower proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 8.4% (2,246 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 9.6%. However, health outcomes among seniors require more attention than the broader population.

Cranbourne North is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Cranbourne North has a high level of cultural diversity, with 46.3% of its population born overseas and 48.1% speaking a language other than English at home. The predominant religion in Cranbourne North is Christianity, comprising 37.4% of the population. Islam is notably overrepresented in Cranbourne North compared to Greater Melbourne, making up 14.1% versus 11.1%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups are Other (27.8%), Australian (17.1%), and English (16.1%). There are notable differences in the representation of certain ethnic groups: Sri Lankan is overrepresented at 2.8%, Indian is equally represented at 9.2%, and Samoan is slightly underrepresented at 1.2%.

Cranbourne North hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Cranbourne North has a median age of 33, which is younger than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and Australia's national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Cranbourne North has a higher proportion of residents aged 5-14 (16.7%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (13.2%). Between the 2021 Census and the present day, the population aged 15 to 24 has increased from 13.4% to 15.0%, while the proportion of those aged 25 to 34 has decreased from 14.8% to 13.2%. The percentage of residents aged 0 to 4 has also dropped, from 8.3% to 7.0%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic shifts in Cranbourne North. The 45 to 54 age group is projected to grow by 57%, adding 1,984 residents and reaching a total of 5,488. Meanwhile, the 0 to 4 cohort is expected to grow by a modest 7%, with an increase of 136 people.