Cranbourne North

Cranbourne North lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

The estimated population of Cranbourne North is 26,004 as of May 2026. This figure represents an increase of 1,321 people from the 2021 Census count of 24,683. AreaSearch validated this estimate using ERP data released by the ABS in June 2025 and additional new addresses since the Census date. The population density is 2,539 persons per square kilometer, placing Cranbourne North in the upper quartile nationally according to AreaSearch assessments. Over the past decade, the suburb has shown resilient growth with a compound annual growth rate of 2.9%, outperforming its SA4 region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 54.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusting using a weighted aggregation method to SA2 levels. Future population dynamics suggest significant growth for Cranbourne North, with an expected increase of 8,751 persons by 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a total increase of 33.6% over the 16-year period.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Cranbourne North recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Cranbourne North has had around 43 residential properties approved each year. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, approximately 219 homes were approved and another 10 have been approved so far in FY26. On average, about 7.3 people moved to the area per dwelling built annually over these five years.

This indicates supply is lagging demand, likely leading to heightened buyer competition and pricing pressures. New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost of $350,000. In FY26, there have been $380,000 in commercial approvals, suggesting a predominantly residential focus. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Cranbourne North has significantly less development activity, 88.0% below the regional average per person. This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established homes. Nationally, this activity is also lower, reflecting market maturity and possible development constraints. New development consists of 29.0% detached houses and 71.0% townhouses or apartments, indicating a shift towards higher-density living to create more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers.

This represents a notable change from the area's existing housing, which is currently 95.0% houses. With around 1479 people per dwelling approval, Cranbourne North reflects a highly mature market. Looking ahead, AreaSearch estimates that Cranbourne North is expected to grow by 8,751 residents through to 2041. If current construction levels persist, housing supply could lag population growth, likely intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Cranbourne North has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 27 projects likely to affect the area. Notable ones include Summerset Cranbourne North, WT Business Park, Kala Primary School, and Cranbourne North Stage 2 Precinct Structure Plan. The following list details those expected to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Cranbourne North has seen below average employment performance when compared to national benchmarks

Cranbourne North has a skilled workforce with manufacturing and industrial sectors well-represented. Its unemployment rate was 6.8% in December 2025, with an estimated employment growth of 2.9% over the past year, according to AreaSearch's statistical area data aggregation. As of that date, 13,857 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 2.0% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%.

Workforce participation stood at 74.1%, slightly above Greater Melbourne's 69.9%. Approximately 18.8% of residents worked from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. The dominant employment sectors were health care & social assistance, manufacturing, and construction. Manufacturing had a particularly high share of employment at 1.7 times the regional level, while professional & technical services employed just 5.5%, below Greater Melbourne's 10.1%.

Over the year to December 2025, employment increased by 2.9% while labour force grew by 4.6%, leading to a rise in unemployment of 1.6 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 2.4%, labour force growth of 2.8%, and an unemployment increase of 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 indicate that national employment is projected to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying growth rates across industry sectors. Applying these projections to Cranbourne North's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.2% over five years and 13.1% over ten years, assuming constant population projections for illustrative purposes.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

The suburb of Cranbourne North has a median taxpayer income of $51,011 and an average income of $57,830 according to the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. This is lower than average on a national basis, contrasting with Greater Melbourne's median income of $57,688 and average income of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% from financial year 2023 to March 2026, estimated incomes would be approximately $55,918 (median) and $63,393 (average). Census data reveals that household, family and personal incomes in Cranbourne North cluster around the 54th percentile nationally. In terms of income distribution, the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket dominates with 42.9% of residents (11,155 people), similar to the metropolitan region where this cohort represents 32.8%. High housing costs consume 18.2% of income. Despite this, strong earnings place disposable income at the 59th percentile nationally, and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 4th decile.

Cranbourne North is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Cranbourne North's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 95.1% houses and 4.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), contrasting with Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Cranbourne North stood at 16.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 57.5% and rented ones at 26.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,900, lower than Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. Median weekly rent in Cranbourne North was $385, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Cranbourne North's mortgage repayments exceeded the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were higher than the national figure of $375.

Cranbourne North features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 84.4% of all households, including 51.8% couples with children, 17.6% couples without children, and 13.7% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 15.6%, with lone person households at 13.5% and group households comprising 2.2% of the total. The median household size is 3.3 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Cranbourne North performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

The area's university qualification rate is 25.0%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 16.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.3%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 33.6% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (12.6%) and certificates (21.0%). Educational participation is high, with 36.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes primary education (13.2%), secondary education (9.8%), and tertiary education (4.8%).

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Cranbourne North has 77 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 10 different routes that combined provide 2,926 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 217 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward daily. In this primarily residential area, cars remain the dominant mode of transportation at 91%, while only 5% use trains. On average, there are 1.7 vehicles per dwelling, exceeding the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 18.8% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency averages 418 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 38 weekly trips per individual stop.

Cranbourne North's residents are relatively healthy in comparison to broader Australia with the level of common health conditions among the general population somewhat typical, though higher than the nation's average among older cohorts

Cranbourne North's health metrics are close to national benchmarks, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The level of common health conditions among the general population is somewhat typical but higher than the national average among older cohorts. Private health cover is relatively low at approximately 50% of the total population (~12,936 people), compared to 56.7% across Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are asthma and mental health issues, impacting 7.3 and 6.6% of residents respectively, while 76.7% declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. The under-65 population demonstrates better than average health outcomes. The area has 8.9% of residents aged 65 and over (2,314 people), which is lower than the 15.0% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges but rank lower nationally than those of the broader population.

Cranbourne North is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Cranbourne North has a high level of cultural diversity, with 46.3% of its population born overseas and 48.1% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Cranbourne North, comprising 37.4% of the population. However, Islam is overrepresented compared to the Greater Melbourne average, making up 14.1% of Cranbourne North's population.

The top three ancestry groups are Other (27.8%), Australian (17.1%), and English (16.1%). Notably, Sri Lankan (2.8%), Indian (9.2%), and Samoan (1.2%) ethnicities are overrepresented compared to regional averages.

Cranbourne North hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Cranbourne North has a median age of 33, which is younger than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and Australia's national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Cranbourne North has a higher proportion of residents aged 5-14 (16.1%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (13.5%). Between the 2021 Census and the present, the population aged 15-24 has grown from 13.4% to 15.1%, while the 55-64 age group has increased from 8.5% to 9.6%. Conversely, the 5-14 age group has declined from 17.9% to 16.1%, and the 0-4 age group has dropped from 8.3% to 6.8%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic changes for Cranbourne North, with the 45-54 age cohort projected to grow by 55%, adding 1,868 residents to reach a total of 5,275.