Cranbourne West

Cranbourne West lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for Cranbourne West, as of November 2025 its estimated population is around 23,444. This reflects an increase of 3,475 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 19,969. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 23,124 following examination of ABS ERP data released in June 2024, along with an additional 340 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 2,054 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Cranbourne West's growth of 17.4% since the 2021 census exceeded both national (8.9%) and state averages, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Natural growth contributed approximately 38.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, with all drivers including interstate migration and overseas migration being positive factors.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering these projections, exceptional growth is predicted for Cranbourne West over the period, with an expected increase of 12,998 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a total increase of 54.2% over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Cranbourne West was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers indicates Cranbourne West averaged approximately 166 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 832 homes. As of FY-26, 47 approvals have been recorded. Between FY-21 and FY-25, an average of 5.8 people moved to the area per dwelling built. Commercial approvals this financial year total $29.7 million, indicating high local commercial activity.

Cranbourne West records roughly half the building activity per person compared to Greater Melbourne, placing it in the 57th percentile nationally for building activity. New development consists of 57.0% detached houses and 43.0% attached dwellings, reflecting a shift from the current housing mix of 82.0% houses. There are approximately 271 people per dwelling approval in Cranbourne West. AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate projects an addition of 12,699 residents by 2041.

If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing buyer competition and supporting stronger price growth.

Cranbourne West has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 30 projects that could impact the area. Notable projects include ESR Greenlink Industrial Estate, RISE, Hall Road, Cranbourne West, Cranbourne West Distribution Centre, and Harli. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The employment landscape in Cranbourne West shows performance that lags behind national averages across key labour market indicators

Cranbourne West has a skilled workforce with strong representation in manufacturing and industrial sectors. The unemployment rate was 5.4% as of an unspecified past year.

Employment growth over the same period was estimated at 3.7%. As of June 2025, 11,943 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 6.3%, which is 1.7 percentage points higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation in Cranbourne West was 68.7%, slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Key industries for employment among residents were health care & social assistance, manufacturing, and construction.

Manufacturing had a particularly high share of employment at 23.5%, compared to the regional average of 12.3%. Conversely, professional & technical services showed lower representation at 4.4% versus the regional average of 10.1%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited as indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population. In the 12-month period ending June 2025, employment increased by 3.7%, while labour force increased by 4.5%, resulting in an unemployment rise of 0.7 percentage points. For comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 3.5%, labour force growth of 4.0%, with unemployment rising 0.5 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from September 2022 suggest that national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates vary significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Cranbourne West's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 13.2% over ten years.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

Cranbourne West had a median taxpayer income of $53,144 and an average of $60,249 according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year 2022. This was below the national average, contrasting with Greater Melbourne's median income of $54,892 and average income of $73,761 in the same period. As of September 2025, estimates based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022 would be approximately $59,606 (median) and $67,575 (average). According to 2021 Census figures, incomes in Cranbourne West clustered around the 54th percentile nationally. Distribution data showed that 44.7% of locals (10,479 people) fell into the $1,500 - 2,999 income category. High housing costs consumed 19.0% of income, but strong earnings placed disposable income at the 53rd percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 4th decile.

Cranbourne West is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Cranbourne West's dwellings, as per the latest Census, consisted of 81.7% houses and 18.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In contrast, Melbourne metro had 91.5% houses and 8.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Cranbourne West was at 12.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 64.1% and rented ones at 23.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,800, lower than Melbourne metro's average of $1,950. Median weekly rent in Cranbourne West was $375, compared to Melbourne metro's $386. Nationally, Cranbourne West's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,800 against the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were comparable at $375.

Cranbourne West features high concentrations of family households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 82.7% of all households, including 48.2% that are couples with children, 19.9% that are couples without children, and 13.5% that are single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 17.3%, with lone person households at 15.0% and group households comprising 2.3% of the total. The median household size is 3.1 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 3.2.

Cranbourne West performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

The area's university qualification rate is 22.8%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 15.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.3%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 37.2% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 13.8% and certificates at 23.4%. Educational participation is high, with 33.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education: 13.1% in primary, 7.4% in secondary, and 3.8% in tertiary education.

Cranbourne West's 4 schools have a combined enrollment of 4,662 students, serving typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1012) with balanced educational opportunities. Educational provision is conventional, split between 2 primary and 2 secondary institutions. School capacity exceeds typical residential needs (19.9 places per 100 residents vs 15.4 regionally), indicating the area serves as an educational center for the broader region.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The transport analysis indicates that Cranbourne West has 42 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by seven different routes, together offering 2,289 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these services is rated as good, with residents typically located 284 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 327 trips per day across all routes, which translates to approximately 54 weekly trips per individual stop.

Cranbourne West's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Cranbourne West's health outcomes data shows excellent results, particularly for younger cohorts who have a very low prevalence of common health conditions.

As of approximately 11,883 people in Cranbourne West, about 51% have private health cover. The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma and mental health issues, affecting 7.6% and 6.8% of residents respectively. About 76.4% of residents report no medical ailments, similar to the Greater Melbourne average. As of 2021, approximately 8.8%, or 2,063 people, are aged 65 and over in Cranbourne West. While health outcomes among seniors require more attention than the broader population, they present some challenges that need addressing.

Cranbourne West is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Cranbourne West has a high level of cultural diversity, with 43.7% of its population born overseas and 45.7% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Cranbourne West, accounting for 36.2% of the population. The category 'Other' shows an overrepresentation in Cranbourne West compared to Greater Melbourne, with 9.3% versus 6.5%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups are Other (24.9%), Australian (18.7%), and English (18.0%). There are notable differences in the representation of certain ethnic groups: Sri Lankan (1.6% vs regional 2.2%), Samoan (1.7% vs 1.3%), and Indian (9.8% vs 9.2%).

Cranbourne West hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Cranbourne West has a median age of 32 years, which is younger than both the Greater Melbourne average of 37 and the national average of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Cranbourne West has a higher percentage of residents aged 5-14 (16.8%) but fewer residents aged 65-74 (5.0%). According to post-2021 Census data, the age group of 35 to 44 has increased from 18.4% to 19.7%, while the 25 to 34 cohort has decreased from 18.3% to 15.6%. The 0 to 4 age group has also dropped from 10.0% to 8.7%. Demographic modeling indicates that Cranbourne West's age profile will significantly change by 2041, with the strongest projected growth in the 45 to 54 cohort, which is expected to increase by 100%, adding 2,636 residents and reaching a total of 5,286.