Cranbourne West

Cranbourne West lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, as of Nov 2025, the Cranbourne West statistical area's population is estimated at around 25,943. This reflects an increase of 5,974 people (29.9%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 19,969 people. The change was inferred from the resident population of 23,119 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 340 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 2,273 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The Cranbourne West's 29.9% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the national average (9.7%), along with the state, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by natural growth that contributed approximately 38.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Moving forward, exceptional growth is predicted over the period with the area expected to expand by 12,979 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 39.2% in total over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Cranbourne West was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Cranbourne West had approximately 174 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling around 871 homes. As of FY26, 55 approvals have been recorded. Historically, an average of 5.5 new residents per year arrived per dwelling constructed between FY21 and FY25. This suggests supply has lagged demand, potentially leading to heightened buyer competition and pricing pressures.

New properties are constructed at an average expected cost of $437,000, slightly above the regional average, indicating a focus on quality developments. In FY26, commercial development approvals totalled $107.8 million, reflecting strong commercial development momentum. Comparatively, Cranbourne West records around 57% of building activity per person when measured against Greater Melbourne and ranks in the 54th percentile nationally among assessed areas. Recent construction comprises 56.0% detached dwellings and 44.0% attached dwellings, marking a shift from existing housing patterns (currently 82.0% houses), possibly due to diminishing developable land availability and evolving lifestyle preferences.

With approximately 294 people per dwelling approval, Cranbourne West's developing market is expected to gain around 10,181 residents by 2041, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Development appears to be keeping pace with projected growth, though increasing population expansion may intensify buyer competition.

Cranbourne West has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 30 projects likely to influence the region. Notable projects include ESR Greenlink Industrial Estate, RISE, Hall Road, Cranbourne West, Cranbourne West Distribution Centre, and Harli. The following list details those expected to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Cranbourne West has seen below average employment performance when compared to national benchmarks

Cranbourne West has a skilled workforce with strong representation in manufacturing and industrial sectors. The unemployment rate was 5.3% as of September 2024, with an estimated employment growth of 4.8% over the past year, according to AreaSearch's statistical area data aggregation.

As of September 2025, 12,297 residents are employed, and the unemployment rate is 0.6% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%. The workforce participation rate is fairly standard at 68.7%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, manufacturing, and construction sectors. Manufacturing stands out with employment levels at 1.9 times the regional average.

However, professional & technical services are under-represented, with only 4.4% of Cranbourne West's workforce compared to Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities based on Census working population versus resident population data. During the year to September 2025, employment levels in Cranbourne West increased by 4.8%, and labour force increased by 5.4%, leading to a rise of 0.5 percentage points in unemployment rate. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 3.0% and labour force growth of 3.3%, with a 0.3 percentage point rise in unemployment rate. State-level data from 25-Nov shows that Victoria's employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, adding 41,950 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%. Nationally, the employment growth was 0.14%, and the unemployment rate was 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 indicate that employment is expected to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years nationally. Applying these projections to Cranbourne West's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 13.2% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

As per AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released on June 2023, the suburb of Cranbourne West's median income among taxpayers is $53,144. The average income in this suburb stands at $60,249. This is lower than the national average. Comparing with Greater Melbourne, Cranbourne West has a median income of $57,688 and an average income of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Cranbourne West's median income would be approximately $57,528 by September 2025, with the average estimated at around $65,220 during the same period. Census data indicates that household, family and personal incomes in Cranbourne West cluster around the 54th percentile nationally. The earnings band of $1,500 - 2,999 captures 44.7% of the community (11,596 individuals). This pattern is also seen regionally where 32.8% occupy this income range. High housing costs consume 19.0% of income in Cranbourne West. Despite this, disposable income ranks at the 53rd percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 4th decile.

Cranbourne West is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Cranbourne West's dwellings, as per the latest Census, consisted of 81.7% houses and 18.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Melbourne metro's 91.5% houses and 8.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Cranbourne West stood at 12.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 64.1% and rented ones at 23.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,800, below Melbourne metro's average of $1,950, while the median weekly rent was $375, compared to Melbourne metro's $386. Nationally, Cranbourne West's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, with rents comparable at $375.

Cranbourne West features high concentrations of family households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 82.7% of all households, including 48.2% couples with children, 19.9% couples without children, and 13.5% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 17.3%, with lone person households at 15.0% and group households comprising 2.3%. The median household size is 3.1 people, smaller than Greater Melbourne's average of 3.2.

Cranbourne West performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

The area's university qualification rate is 22.8%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 15.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.3%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 37.2% of residents aged 15 and above holding them, including advanced diplomas (13.8%) and certificates (23.4%). Educational participation is high, with 33.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, comprising 13.1% in primary, 7.4% in secondary, and 3.8% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 33.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 13.1% in primary education, 7.4% in secondary education, and 3.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Cranbourne West indicates there are 44 active transport stops currently operating. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, with a total of 7 individual routes providing service. The combined weekly passenger trips across these routes amount to 1,384.

Residents' accessibility to transport is rated good, with an average distance of 283 meters to the nearest stop. Service frequency averages 197 trips per day across all routes, translating to approximately 31 weekly trips per individual stop.

Cranbourne West's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Cranbourne West shows excellent health outcomes, particularly in younger age groups with low prevalence rates for common conditions. Approximately 51% (~13,150 people) have private health cover, lower than Australia's average of 55.7%.

Asthma and mental health issues are the most prevalent medical conditions, affecting 7.6% and 6.8% respectively. Around 76.4% report no medical ailments, similar to Greater Melbourne's figure. The area has an elderly population of 8.8%, totaling 2,282 individuals aged 65 or above. Health outcomes among seniors require more attention compared to the broader population.

Cranbourne West is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Cranbourne West's population shows high cultural diversity, with 43.7% born overseas and 45.7% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion, comprising 36.2%. The 'Other' category represents 9.3%, higher than Greater Melbourne's 6.5%.

In terms of ancestry, 'Other', Australian, and English are the top three groups with 24.9%, 18.7%, and 18.0% respectively. Some ethnic groups show notable differences: Sri Lankan at 1.6% (vs regional 2.2%), Samoan at 1.7% (vs 1.3%), and Indian at 9.8% (vs 9.2%).

Cranbourne West hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Cranbourne West has a median age of 32 years, which is younger than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and significantly lower than Australia's national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Cranbourne West has a higher proportion of residents aged 5-14 years (16.8%) but fewer residents aged 65-74 years (5%). According to post-2021 Census data, the age group of 35-44 years has increased from 18.4% to 19.7%, while the 25-34 cohort has decreased from 18.3% to 15.6%. The 0-4 age group has also dropped from 10.0% to 8.7%. Demographic modeling indicates that Cranbourne West's age profile will change significantly by 2041, with the strongest projected growth in the 45-54 age cohort, which is expected to grow by 80%, adding 2,351 residents to reach a total of 5,283.