Cranbourne South

Cranbourne South lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Cranbourne South's population is around 28,399 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 10,999 people (63.2%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 17,400 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 24,580 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 3,915 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 347 persons per square kilometer, providing significant space per person and potential room for further development. Cranbourne South's 63.2% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the national average (9.9%) and the state average, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by interstate migration, which contributed approximately 77.2% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers, including natural growth and overseas migration, were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Regarding demographic trends, exceptional growth, placing in the top 10 percent of national statistical areas, is predicted over the period, with the area expected to expand by 32,213 persons by 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a gain of 100.0% in total over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Cranbourne South was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Cranbourne South has seen around 996 new homes approved annually, totalling 4,983 homes over the past 5 financial years. So far in FY-26463 approvals have been recorded. With an average of 2.4 people per year moving to the area per new home constructed over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), suggesting solid demand that supports property values, new homes are being built at an average value of $296,000, in line with regional trends. Additionally, $109.8 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded this financial year, indicating strong commercial development momentum.

When measured against Greater Melbourne, Cranbourne South records 273.0% more construction activity (per person), creating greater choice for buyers. This activity is well above average nationally, reflecting strong developer confidence in the area. New development consists of 93.0% standalone homes and 7.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. With around 21 people per dwelling approval, Cranbourne South shows characteristics of a growth area.

Future projections show Cranbourne South adding 28,392 residents by 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Cranbourne South has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 31stth percentile nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total 72 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include Botanic Ridge Secondary College, Casey Fields South Residential, Casey Fields South Employment Precinct, and Levande Selandra Rise Retirement Village, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The labour market in Cranbourne South shows considerable strength compared to most other Australian regions

Cranbourne South features a skilled workforce, with the construction sector a particular standout in terms of representation, an unemployment rate of only 3.4%, and 4.4% in estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 14,253 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 1.4% below Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%, and workforce participation is well beyond standard (80.2% compared to Greater Melbourne's 71.3%). Based on Census responses, a moderate 20.5% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

The key industries of employment among residents are construction, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. The area demonstrates a particularly notable concentration in construction, with employment levels at 1.7 times the regional average. Meanwhile, professional & technical services have a limited presence with 5.0% employment compared to 10.1% regionally. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of the Census working population versus the resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, during the year to December 2025, employment levels increased by 4.4% and the labour force increased by 5.3%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.9 percentage points. This contrasts with Greater Melbourne, where employment rose by 2.4%, the labour force grew by 2.8%, and unemployment rose 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Cranbourne South. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Cranbourne South's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.2% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

The Cranbourne South SA2's income level is below the national average according to the latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for FY-23. The Cranbourne South SA2's median income among taxpayers is $56,049 and the average income stands at $62,620, which compares to Greater Melbourne's figures of $57,688 and $75,164 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $60,673 (median) and $67,786 (average) as of September 2025. Census 2021 income data shows household, family and personal incomes all rank highly in Cranbourne South, between the 73rd and 79th percentiles nationally. Income analysis reveals the predominant cohort spans 44.7% of locals (12,694 people) in the $1,500 - 2,999 category, consistent with broader trends across regional levels showing 32.8% in the same category. High housing costs consume 17.2% of income, though strong earnings still place disposable income at the 77th percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Cranbourne South is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Dwelling structure within Cranbourne South, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 95.4% houses and 4.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Cranbourne South was lagging that of Melbourne metro, at 20.5%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (63.4%) or rented (16.1%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was above the Melbourne metro average at $2,167, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $408, compared to Melbourne metro's $2,000 and $390. Nationally, Cranbourne South's mortgage repayments are significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are exceeding the national figure of $375.

Cranbourne South features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 84.9% of all households, comprising 47.7% couples with children, 27.2% couples without children, and 9.2% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 15.1%, with lone person households at 12.8% and group households comprising 2.2% of the total. The median household size of 3.0 people is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

The educational profile of Cranbourne South exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (22.5%) substantially below the Greater Melbourne average of 37.0%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 15.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.8%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 41.3% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (14.0%) and certificates (27.3%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 29.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.6% in primary education, 6.2% in secondary education, and 3.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 66 active transport stops operating within Cranbourne South, comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 6 individual routes, collectively providing 1,578 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as moderate, with residents typically located 432 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 93%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.9 per dwelling, which is above the regional average. Some 20.5% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 225 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 23 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health outcomes in Cranbourne South are marginally below the national average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Health indicators suggest below-average outcomes in Cranbourne South, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts, and the rate of private health cover is relatively low at approximately 50% of the total population (~14,313 people). This compares to 56.7% across Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are asthma and mental health issues, impacting 8.1% and 7.0% of residents, respectively, while 74.6% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents are notably healthy with low chronic condition prevalence. The area has 9.1% of residents aged 65 and over (2,581 people), which is lower than the 15.1% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Cranbourne South was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Cranbourne South is more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets, with 27.9% of its population born overseas and 24.2% speaking a language other than English at home. The main religion in Cranbourne South is Christianity, which makes up 40.4% of people. However, the most apparent overrepresentation is in Other, which comprises 4.5% of the population, compared to 2.3% across Greater Melbourne.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Cranbourne South are Australian, comprising 26.1% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 18.4%, English, comprising 24.7% of the population, and Other, comprising 12.4% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Sri Lankan is notably overrepresented at 1.1% of Cranbourne South (vs 0.8% regionally), Dutch at 1.9% (vs 1.2%) and Indian at 5.5% (vs 4.2%).

Cranbourne South hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

At 32 years, Cranbourne South's median age is materially younger than the Greater Melbourne average of 37 and also significantly lower than the 38-year national average. Relative to Greater Melbourne, Cranbourne South has a higher concentration of 5 - 14 residents (16.5%) but fewer 65 - 74 year-olds (5.4%). Post-2021 Census data shows the 35 to 44 age group has grown from 16.0% to 19.9% of the population, while the 5 to 14 cohort increased from 14.4% to 16.5%. Conversely, the 25 to 34 cohort has declined from 20.1% to 16.8% and the 0 to 4 group dropped from 9.9% to 8.7%. Demographic modeling suggests Cranbourne South's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041. The 35 to 44 cohort shows the strongest projected growth at 92%, adding 5,199 residents to reach 10,857.