Cranbourne South

Cranbourne South lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Cranbourne South's population was around 27,946 as of May 2026. This reflected an increase of 10,546 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 17,400 people. The change was inferred from the estimated resident population of 27,374 in June 2025 and an additional 4,109 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population resulted in a density ratio of 342 persons per square kilometer. Cranbourne South's growth of 60.6% since the 2021 census exceeded the state average of 9.3%, marking it as a significant growth leader in the region. Population growth was primarily driven by interstate migration, contributing approximately 78.4% of overall population gains.

AreaSearch adopted ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered, AreaSearch utilised VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group were applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, exceptional growth is predicted over the period with an expected expansion of 29,040 persons to 2041, reflecting a gain of 101.8% in total over the 16 years.

The level of residential development activity in Cranbourne South was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Cranbourne South has seen approximately 996 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling 4,983 homes. As of FY26650 approvals have been recorded. On average, 2.4 people per year have moved to the area for each new home constructed between FY21 and FY25, indicating strong demand that supports property values. New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost of $296,000, aligning with regional trends.

This financial year has seen $109.8 million in commercial development approvals, demonstrating robust commercial development momentum. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Cranbourne South records 242.0% more construction activity per person, offering greater choice for buyers and reflecting strong developer confidence in the area. New development primarily consists of standalone homes (93.0%) with townhouses or apartments making up the remaining 7.0%, maintaining the area's traditional low density character focused on family homes. With approximately 21 people per dwelling approval, Cranbourne South exhibits characteristics of a growth area. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Cranbourne South is projected to add 28,462 residents by 2041.

Given current construction levels, housing supply should meet demand adequately, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Cranbourne South has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 30thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 71 projects likely impacting the area. Notable ones include Levande Selandra Rise Retirement Village, Casey Fields South Employment Precinct, Casey Fields South Residential, and Botanic Ridge Secondary College. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The labour market in Cranbourne South shows considerable strength compared to most other Australian regions

Cranbourne South has a skilled workforce with notable representation in the construction sector. The unemployment rate was 3.4% as of December 2025. There was an estimated employment growth of 4.4% over the past year.

As of December 2025, 14,253 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.4% below Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%. Workforce participation was 72.1%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 69.9%. A moderate 20.5% of residents worked from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Key industries for employment were construction, health care & social assistance, and retail trade.

Construction had a particularly notable concentration, with employment levels at 1.7 times the regional average. Professional & technical services had limited presence, with only 5.0% of employment compared to the regional average of 10.1%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities based on Census data. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment levels increased by 4.4%, while the labour force grew by 5.3%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate by 0.9 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne saw employment rise by 2.4%, labour force grow by 2.8%, and unemployment increase by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest potential future demand within Cranbourne South. National employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates vary significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Cranbourne South's employment mix indicates local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.2% over ten years.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

The median income among taxpayers in Cranbourne South SA2 was $56,049 and the average income was $62,620 in financial year 2023. These figures are below Greater Melbourne's median of $57,688 and average of $75,164 respectively. By March 2026, estimated incomes would be approximately $61,441 (median) and $68,644 (average), based on a Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since financial year 2023. According to Census 2021 income data, Cranbourne South's household, family, and personal incomes rank between the 73rd and 79th percentiles nationally. Income analysis shows that 44.7% of locals (12,491 people) fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 income category, which is consistent with regional trends at 32.8%. High housing costs consume 17.2% of income in Cranbourne South, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 77th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Cranbourne South is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Dwelling structure in Cranbourne South, as evaluated at the 2016 Census, comprised 95.4% houses and 4.6% other dwellings. In Melbourne metro, this was 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Cranbourne South was 20.5%, with dwellings either mortgaged (63.4%) or rented (16.1%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,167, compared to Melbourne metro's $2,000. Median weekly rent was $408, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Cranbourne South's mortgage repayments were higher at $2,167 versus the Australian average of $1,863. Rents in Cranbourne South exceeded the national figure of $375.

Cranbourne South features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 84.9% of all households, including 47.7% couples with children, 27.2% couples without children, and 9.2% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 15.1%, with lone person households at 12.8% and group households at 2.2%. The median household size is 3.0 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

The educational profile of Cranbourne South exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 22.5%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 15.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.8%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 41.3% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas at 14.0% and certificates at 27.3%. Educational participation is high, with 29.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 11.6% in primary education, 6.2% in secondary education, and 3.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Cranbourne South has 66 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by six different routes that together facilitate 1,578 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility to these stops is rated as moderate, with residents typically living 432 meters away from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outwards due to its residential nature. Cars remain the primary mode of transport, used by 93% of residents. On average, there are 1.9 vehicles per dwelling in Cranbourne South, which is higher than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 20.5% of residents work from home, a figure that may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency across all routes averages 225 trips per day, equating to approximately 23 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health outcomes in Cranbourne South are marginally below the national average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Cranbourne South shows below-average health indicators based on AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are higher compared to other areas, with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. Approximately 50% of the total population (~14,084 people) has private health cover, lower than Greater Melbourne's 56.7% and the national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions are asthma (8.1%) and mental health issues (7.0%). However, 74.6% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 72.6% in Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents have low chronic condition prevalence. Only 9.0% of residents are aged 65 and over (2,523 people), lower than Greater Melbourne's 15.0%. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges but align with national rankings for the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Cranbourne South was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Cranbourne South's population, with 27.9% born overseas and 24.2% speaking a language other than English at home, is more culturally diverse than most local markets. Christianity is the predominant religion in Cranbourne South, comprising 40.4% of its population. The 'Other' religious category is overrepresented in Cranbourne South at 4.5%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 2.3%.

In terms of ancestry, Australians make up 26.1% of Cranbourne South's population, higher than the regional average of 18.4%. English ancestry comprises 24.7%, and 'Other' ancestry is at 12.4%. Notably, Sri Lankan ancestry is overrepresented in Cranbourne South at 1.1%, compared to 0.8% regionally. Dutch ancestry also exceeds the regional average at 1.9% (vs 1.2%), and Indian ancestry is at 5.5% (vs 4.2%).

Cranbourne South hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Cranbourne South has a median age of 31 years, which is lower than the Greater Melbourne average of 37 and the Australian median of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Cranbourne South has a higher percentage of residents aged 35-44 (20.1%) but fewer residents aged 55-64 (7.5%). This concentration of 35-44 year-olds is significantly higher than the national average of 14.3%. Between 2021 and present, the percentage of residents aged 35-44 has increased from 16.0% to 20.1%, while the 5-14 age group has grown from 14.4% to 16.2%. Conversely, the 25-34 age group has decreased from 20.1% to 17.3%, and the 55-64 age group has dropped from 8.9% to 7.5%. Demographic projections indicate that Cranbourne South's age profile will change significantly by 2041, with the 35-44 age cohort expected to expand considerably, growing from 5,614 people to 10,902, an increase of 5,287 people (94%).