Cranbourne South
Statistical Area - sa2

Cranbourne South lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Cranbourne South's population is approximately 27,330 as of August 2025. This represents an increase of 9,930 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 17,400. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 24,597 in June 2024 and an additional 3,553 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 334 persons per square kilometer. Cranbourne South's growth rate of 57.1% since the 2021 census exceeded both national (8.6%) and state averages. The primary driver of this growth was interstate migration, contributing approximately 77.2% of overall population gains.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted via weighted aggregation to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. According to these trends, Cranbourne South is predicted to experience exceptional growth, placing it in the top 10 percent of national statistical areas. By 2041, the area's population is expected to expand by 32,213 persons, representing a total gain of 107.8% over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Cranbourne South was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Cranbourne South has seen approximately 996 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling 4,983 homes. As of FY26290 approvals have been recorded. On average, 2.4 people move to the area per year with each new home constructed between FY21 and FY25, indicating solid demand that supports property values. New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $372,000, which is below the regional average.

This suggests more affordable housing options for buyers. Additionally, $109.8 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded this financial year, indicating strong commercial development momentum compared to Greater Melbourne, where Cranbourne South records 273.0% more construction activity per person. The area maintains a traditional low density character with 93.0% standalone homes and 7.0% townhouses or apartments, appealing to those seeking space. With around 21 people expected per dwelling approval, Cranbourne South shows characteristics of a growth area. Future projections suggest the area will add 29,461 residents by 2041, with current construction levels expected to adequately meet demand and potentially enable growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Future projections show Cranbourne South adding 29,461 residents by 2041. With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Cranbourne South has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 36thth percentile nationally

Area performance is significantly influenced by changes in local infrastructure. AreaSearch has identified 69 projects that may impact the area. Notable projects include Ortus, Casey Fields South Residential, Casey Fields South Employment Precinct, and Levande Selandra Rise Retirement Village. The following list details those considered most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

The labour market in Cranbourne South shows considerable strength compared to most other Australian regions

Cranbourne South has a skilled workforce with notable representation in the construction sector. Its unemployment rate was 3.2% as of June 2025, compared to Greater Melbourne's 4.6%.

The area saw estimated employment growth of 3.7% over the past year. As of June 2025, 12,887 residents were employed with a workforce participation rate of 72.3%, surpassing Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Key industries include construction, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. Construction employment is particularly high at 1.7 times the regional average, while professional & technical jobs are limited at 5.0% compared to the regional 10.1%.

Employment opportunities locally may be limited as indicated by Census data comparing working population to resident population. In the year to June 2025, employment levels in Cranbourne South increased by 3.7%, with labour force growing by 4.4%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate of 0.7 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment rise by 3.5% and unemployment increase by 0.5 percentage points. Statewide in Victoria as of Sep-25, employment grew by 1.08% year-on-year, adding 39,880 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%. Nationally, the unemployment rate was 4.5%, and employment growth outpaced the national average of 0.26%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia indicate a projected expansion of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Cranbourne South's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.3% over five years and 13.2% over ten years, though these are simple weighted extrapolations for illustrative purposes and do not account for localized population projections.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Cranbourne South's median income among taxpayers was $53,298 and average income was $59,854 in financial year 2022. These figures are below Greater Melbourne's median of $54,892 and average of $73,761 respectively. By March 2025, current estimates suggest median income will be approximately $58,686 and average income $65,905, based on a 10.11% increase since financial year 2022. In Census 2021, Cranbourne South's incomes ranked highly nationally, between the 74th and 80th percentiles for household, family, and personal incomes. The predominant income cohort in Cranbourne South was 44.7% of locals (12,216 people) earning $1,500 to $2,999 per week, similar to the 32.8% at this level across regional areas. High housing costs consumed 17.2% of income, but strong earnings placed disposable income at the 77th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Cranbourne South is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Cranbourne South, as per the latest Census evaluation, 95.4% of dwellings were houses with the remaining 4.6% being semi-detached, apartments, or other types. This compares to Melbourne metro's figures of 91.5% houses and 8.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Cranbourne South stood at 20.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 63.4% and rented ones at 16.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,167, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $1,950. The median weekly rent in Cranbourne South was $408, compared to Melbourne metro's $386. Nationally, Cranbourne South's mortgage repayments exceeded the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were higher than the national figure of $375.

Cranbourne South features high concentrations of family households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 84.9% of all households, including 47.7% couples with children, 27.2% couples without children, and 9.2% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 15.1%, with lone person households at 12.8% and group households comprising 2.2%. The median household size is 3.0 people, smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 3.2.

The educational profile of Cranbourne South exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Cranbourne South faces notable educational challenges, with university qualification rates of 22.5%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent (15.5%), followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.8%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Vocational credentials are prominent among residents aged 15+, with 41.3% holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (14.0%) and certificates (27.3%). Educational participation is high at 29.7%, comprising primary education (11.6%), secondary education (6.2%), and tertiary education (3.7%).

The area operates a robust network of eight schools educating approximately 3,876 students, with typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1024) offering balanced educational opportunities. This mix includes six primary, one secondary, and one K-12 school. Note that for schools showing 'n/a' in enrolments, please refer to the parent campus.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Cranbourne South has 58 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by five different routes that together facilitate 1,619 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these services is rated as moderate, with residents typically residing about 500 meters from their nearest stop.

On average, there are 231 daily trips across all routes, which amounts to approximately 27 weekly trips per individual stop.

Cranbourne South's residents are extremely healthy with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Cranbourne South, with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions. The rate of private health cover was found to be relatively low at approximately 50% of the total population (~13,528 people), compared to the national average of 55.3%.

The most common medical conditions in the area were asthma and mental health issues, impacting 8.1 and 7.0% of residents respectively, while 74.6% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments. This is slightly lower than the figure across Greater Melbourne (76.4%). The area has 8.9% of residents aged 65 and over (2,432 people). Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges that require more attention than the broader population.

Cranbourne South was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Cranbourne South's population was found to be more culturally diverse than most local markets, with 27.9% born overseas and 24.2% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Cranbourne South as of 2016, accounting for 40.4% of its population. However, the 'Other' religion category showed an overrepresentation in Cranbourne South compared to Greater Melbourne, with 4.5% versus 6.5%.

In terms of ancestry, Australians made up 26.1% of Cranbourne South's population, significantly higher than the regional average of 17.7%. Those claiming English ancestry comprised 24.7%, also notably higher than the regional average of 17.5%. However, 'Other' ancestry was less represented in Cranbourne South at 12.4% compared to the region's 25.5%. There were notable variations in certain ethnic groups: Sri Lankan (1.1% vs 2.2%), Dutch (1.9% vs 1.3%), and Indian (5.5% vs 9.2%).

Cranbourne South hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Cranbourne South has a median age of 32 years, which is younger than the Greater Melbourne average of 37 and significantly lower than the national average of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Cranbourne South has a higher percentage of residents aged 5-14 (16.1%) but fewer residents aged 65-74 (5.2%). According to post-2021 Census data, the 35-44 age group grew from 16.0% to 19.4%, while the 5-14 cohort increased from 14.4% to 16.1%. Conversely, the 25-34 age group declined from 20.1% to 17.7%. Demographic modeling indicates that Cranbourne South's age profile will change significantly by 2041. The 35-44 cohort is projected to grow by 104%, adding 5,544 residents to reach a total of 10,857.