Cranbourne South

Cranbourne South lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Cranbourne South's population was approximately 28,399 as of February 2026. This figure represents a growth of 10,999 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 17,400. The increase is inferred from ABS estimates and validated new addresses. As of June 2024, the estimated resident population was 24,580, with an additional 3,915 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 347 persons per square kilometer. Cranbourne South's growth rate of 63.2% since the 2021 census exceeded both national (9.9%) and state averages, positioning it as a growth leader in the region.

Interstate migration contributed approximately 77.2% of overall population gains during recent periods. AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. According to demographic trends, Cranbourne South is predicted to experience exceptional growth, placing it in the top 10 percent of national statistical areas. By 2041, the area is expected to expand by 32,213 persons based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a total gain of 100.0% over the 17-year period.

The level of residential development activity in Cranbourne South was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Cranbourne South saw approximately 996 new home approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 4,983 homes. As of FY26436 approvals have been recorded. On average, 2.4 people moved to the area per new home constructed between FY21 and FY25, indicating strong demand supporting property values. New homes are being built at an average construction cost value of $296,000, aligning with regional trends.

In FY26, $109.8 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, reflecting robust commercial development momentum. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Cranbourne South has 273.0% more construction activity per person, offering greater choice for buyers and demonstrating strong developer confidence. New development comprises 93.0% standalone homes and 7.0% townhouses or apartments, preserving the area's traditional low density character focused on family homes. With around 21 people per dwelling approval, Cranbourne South exhibits characteristics of a growth area. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Cranbourne South is projected to add 28,392 residents by 2041.

Given current construction levels, housing supply should meet demand adequately, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially facilitating growth exceeding current forecasts.

Cranbourne South has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 31stth percentile nationally

The performance of an area can significantly be influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified a total of 72 projects likely to impact the area. Notable projects include Botanic Ridge Secondary College, Casey Fields South Residential, Casey Fields South Employment Precinct, and Levande Selandra Rise Retirement Village. The following list details those projects considered most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Cranbourne South demonstrate exceptional strength compared to most Australian markets

Cranbourne South has a skilled workforce. The construction sector is prominent with an unemployment rate of 3.0%. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 6.0%.

As of September 2025, 14,171 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.7% lower than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%. Workforce participation is high at 79.4%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 71.0%. According to Census responses, 20.5% of residents work from home. Key industries include construction, health care & social assistance, and retail trade.

Construction employment is notably concentrated, at 1.7 times the regional average. Professional & technical services have a limited presence, with 5.0% employment compared to 10.1% regionally. The area offers limited local employment opportunities, indicated by the working population vs resident population count. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 6.0%, labour force grew by 6.6%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.5 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment rise by 3.0%, labour force grow by 3.3%, and unemployment increase by 0.3 percentage points. National employment forecasts from May-25 project national growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Cranbourne South's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.2% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

The median income of taxpayers in Cranbourne South SA2 was $56,049 in financial year 2023, according to the latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. This figure is below the national average for Greater Melbourne, which stood at $57,688. The average income in Cranbourne South SA2 was $62,620, compared to $75,164 in Greater Melbourne. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, the estimated median and average incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $60,673 and $67,786 respectively. Census 2021 income data shows that household, family, and personal incomes in Cranbourne South rank highly nationally, between the 73rd and 79th percentiles. Income analysis reveals that the predominant cohort spans 44.7% of locals (12,694 people) with incomes ranging from $1,500 to $2,999, which is consistent with broader trends across regional levels showing 32.8% in the same category. High housing costs consume 17.2% of income in Cranbourne South, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 77th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Cranbourne South is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Cranbourne South's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 95.4% houses and 4.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This contrasts with Melbourne metro's figures of 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Cranbourne South stood at 20.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 63.4% and rented ones at 16.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,167, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. Median weekly rent in Cranbourne South was $408, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Cranbourne South's mortgage repayments exceeded the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were higher than the national figure of $375.

Cranbourne South features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 84.9% of all households, including 47.7% couples with children, 27.2% couples without children, and 9.2% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 15.1%, with lone person households at 12.8% and group households making up 2.2%. The median household size is 3.0 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

The educational profile of Cranbourne South exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 22.5%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 15.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.8%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 41.3% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas account for 14.0% and certificates for 27.3%. Educational participation is high at 29.7%, including 11.6% in primary education, 6.2% in secondary education, and 3.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 29.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.6% in primary education, 6.2% in secondary education, and 3.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Cranbourne South has 66 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by six different routes that together facilitate 1,578 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as moderate, with residents typically residing 432 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to its residential nature, and cars remain the primary mode of transportation at 93%. On average, there are 1.9 vehicles per dwelling, which exceeds the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, 20.5% of residents work from home, a figure that may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

Across all routes, an average of 225 trips is made daily, equating to approximately 23 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health outcomes in Cranbourne South are marginally below the national average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Cranbourne South shows below-average health outcomes based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. Private health cover is relatively low at approximately 50% of the total population (~14,313 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 56.7% and the national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions are asthma and mental health issues, affecting 8.1 and 7.0% of residents respectively. 74.6% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to Greater Melbourne's 72.6%. Working-age residents have low chronic condition prevalence. There are 9.1% of residents aged 65 and over (2,581 people), lower than Greater Melbourne's 15.1%. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Cranbourne South was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Cranbourne South had a higher cultural diversity compared to most local areas, with 27.9% of its population born overseas and 24.2% speaking languages other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Cranbourne South, accounting for 40.4% of the population. Notably, the "Other" religious category comprised 4.5%, higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 2.3%.

In terms of ancestry, Australians made up 26.1%, significantly more than the regional average of 18.4%. English and Other groups followed, at 24.7% and 12.4% respectively. Some ethnic groups showed significant differences: Sri Lankans were at 1.1% (regional average was 0.8%), Dutch at 1.9% (compared to 1.2%), and Indians at 5.5% (against a regional average of 4.2%).

Cranbourne South hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Cranbourne South has a median age of 32 years, which is younger than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and the national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Cranbourne South has a higher percentage of residents aged 5-14 (16.5%) but fewer residents aged 65-74 (5.4%). According to post-2021 Census data, the age group of 35 to 44 has grown from 16.0% to 19.9%, while the 5 to 14 cohort increased from 14.4% to 16.5%. Conversely, the 25 to 34 cohort has declined from 20.1% to 16.8% and the 0 to 4 group dropped from 9.9% to 8.7%. Demographic modeling indicates that Cranbourne South's age profile will significantly change by 2041, with the 35 to 44 cohort projected to grow by 92%, adding 5,199 residents to reach a total of 10,857.