Cranbourne South

Cranbourne South lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Cranbourne South's population was approximately 27,594 as of November 2025. This figure represents an increase of 10,194 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 17,400. The growth is inferred from ABS data showing an estimated resident population of 24,591 in June 2024 and validated new addresses totalling 3,643 since the Census date. This results in a population density of 337 persons per square kilometer. Cranbourne South's population grew by 58.6% between the 2021 Census and November 2025, surpassing both national (8.9%) and state averages. Interstate migration contributed approximately 77.2% to this growth.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusting using weighted aggregation to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, Cranbourne South is predicted to have a population of approximately 60,807, reflecting a 105.8% increase over the 17-year period.

The level of residential development activity in Cranbourne South was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Cranbourne South has seen approximately 996 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling 4,983 homes. As of FY26403 approvals have been recorded. On average, around 2.4 people move to the area per new home constructed each year between FY21 and FY25, indicating strong demand which supports property values. New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $296,000, aligning with regional trends.

In FY26, $109.8 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, demonstrating robust commercial development momentum. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Cranbourne South records 273.0% more construction activity per person, offering greater choice for buyers and reflecting strong developer confidence in the area. New development consists of 93.0% standalone homes and 7.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's traditional low-density character focused on family homes. With around 21 people per dwelling approval, Cranbourne South exhibits characteristics of a growth area. According to AreaSearch quarterly estimates, Cranbourne South is projected to add 29,197 residents by 2041.

Given current construction levels, housing supply should meet demand adequately, creating favourable conditions for buyers and potentially enabling population growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Cranbourne South has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 38thth percentile nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 72 projects that could impact the area. Notable ones include Botanic Ridge Secondary College, Casey Fields South Residential, Casey Fields South Employment Precinct, and Levande Selandra Rise Retirement Village. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Cranbourne South demonstrate exceptional strength compared to most Australian markets

Cranbourne South has a skilled workforce with notable representation in the construction sector. Its unemployment rate was 3.0% as of September 2025, lower than Greater Melbourne's 4.7%.

Employment grew by 6.0% over the past year. As of September 2025, 14,171 residents were employed with a participation rate of 72.3%, higher than Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Key industries include construction, health care & social assistance, and retail trade, with construction employment at 1.7 times the regional average. Professional & technical services had limited presence with 5.0% compared to 10.1% regionally.

Employment opportunities appear limited locally based on Census data comparison of working population versus resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 6.0%, labour force grew by 6.6%, causing unemployment rate to rise by 0.5 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment rise by 3.0% with a 0.3 percentage point increase in unemployment. State-wide, Victoria's employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year as of 25-Nov, adding 41,950 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%. National employment forecasts indicate growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Cranbourne South's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by approximately 6.3% over five years and 13.2% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Cranbourne South SA2's median income among taxpayers was $53,298 and average income was $59,854 in financial year 2022, according to the latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. This compares with Greater Melbourne's figures of $54,892 and $73,761 respectively. Based on a Wage Price Index growth rate of 12.16% since financial year 2022, estimated incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $59,779 (median) and $67,132 (average). Census 2021 income data ranks Cranbourne South's household, family, and personal incomes highly, between the 73rd and 79th percentiles nationally. Income analysis shows that 44.7% of locals (12,334 people) fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 income category, consistent with broader regional trends at 32.8%. High housing costs consume 17.2% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 77th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Cranbourne South is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Cranbourne South's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 95.4% houses and 4.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's 91.5% houses and 8.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Cranbourne South stood at 20.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 63.4% and rented ones at 16.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,167, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $1,950. Median weekly rent in Cranbourne South was $408, compared to Melbourne metro's $386. Nationally, Cranbourne South's mortgage repayments exceeded the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were above the national figure of $375.

Cranbourne South features high concentrations of family households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 84.9% of all households, including 47.7% couples with children, 27.2% couples without children, and 9.2% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 15.1%, with lone person households at 12.8% and group households making up 2.2% of the total. The median household size is 3.0 people, smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 3.2.

The educational profile of Cranbourne South exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 22.5%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 15.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.8%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Vocational credentials are held by 41.3% of residents aged 15 and above, with advanced diplomas at 14.0% and certificates at 27.3%. Educational participation is high, with 29.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 11.6% in primary education, 6.2% in secondary education, and 3.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Cranbourne South has 58 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by five different routes that together facilitate 1,619 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility to these services is rated as moderate; residents typically live within a distance of 500 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 231 daily trips across all routes, which translates to approximately 27 weekly trips per individual stop.

Cranbourne South's residents are extremely healthy with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics indicates strong performance throughout Cranbourne South, with younger cohorts experiencing a very low prevalence of common health conditions. The rate of private health cover is relatively low at approximately 50% of the total population (~13,659 people), compared to the national average of 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical conditions in the area are asthma and mental health issues, affecting 8.1 and 7.0% of residents respectively. A total of 74.6% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 76.4% across Greater Melbourne. As of 2016, 8.9% of residents are aged 65 and over (2,455 people). Health outcomes among seniors require more attention than the broader population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Cranbourne South was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Cranbourne South had a higher cultural diversity than most local areas, with 27.9% of its residents born overseas and 24.2% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Cranbourne South, making up 40.4% of its population. Notably, the category 'Other' comprised 4.5% of Cranbourne South's population, compared to 6.5% across Greater Melbourne.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were Australian (26.1%), English (24.7%), and Other (12.4%). These figures differed significantly from regional averages: Australian was higher than the regional average of 17.7%, English was also higher at 17.5%, while Other was notably lower at 25.5%. Additionally, certain ethnic groups showed notable variations in representation: Sri Lankan was overrepresented at 1.1% (vs 2.2%), Dutch at 1.9% (vs 1.3%), and Indian at 5.5% (vs 9.2%).

Cranbourne South hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Cranbourne South has a median age of 32 years, which is younger than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and lower than Australia's national average of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Cranbourne South has a higher proportion of residents aged 5-14 (16.1%) but fewer residents aged 65-74 (5.2%). According to post-2021 Census data, the age group of 35 to 44 grew from 16.0% to 19.4%, while the 5 to 14 cohort increased from 14.4% to 16.1%. Meanwhile, the 25 to 34 cohort declined from 20.1% to 17.7%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests significant changes in Cranbourne South's age profile. The 35 to 44 age group is projected to grow by 102%, adding 5,492 residents and reaching a total of 10,857.