Tooradin

Population growth drivers in Tooradin are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of May 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Tooradin is around 1,787, reflecting an increase of 65 people since the 2021 Census. This increase represents a growth rate of approximately 3.8%. The analysis is based on ABS population updates and new addresses validated by AreaSearch as of June 2025. The population density in Tooradin is around 64 persons per square kilometer, indicating ample space per person. Natural growth contributed about 81% to the overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. Based on these aggregated projections, Tooradin is expected to grow by approximately 83 persons by 2041, reflecting a total growth rate of about 4.6% over the 16-year period. This growth rate is just below the median for national areas.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Tooradin according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data shows Tooradin had around 3 new homes approved each year over the past five financial years, totalling approximately 16 homes. As of FY-26, 2 approvals have been recorded. The average increase in residents per year for each dwelling built between FY-21 and FY-25 was 2.1, indicating robust demand that supports property values.

New homes were constructed at an average cost of $542,000, reflecting a focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties. All new construction consisted of standalone homes, preserving Tooradin's low density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers.

The area reflected a population density of around 268 people per approval. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Tooradin is projected to gain 83 residents by 2041. Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should meet demand, offering favourable conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating further population growth beyond current projections.

Tooradin has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 46thth percentile nationally

No infrastructure changes are projected in the area at present. No significant projects have been identified by AreaSearch that could impact the region. Notable initiatives include City of Casey Capital Works Program 2025/26, Cranbourne Line Upgrade, expansion plans for Cranbourne Park Shopping Centre, and establishment of The Orange Door Cranbourne.

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Employment conditions in Tooradin demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Tooradin has a diverse workforce with both white and blue collar jobs. The construction sector is prominent, with an unemployment rate of 3.3% and estimated employment growth of 4.3% in the past year (AreaSearch data). As of December 2025, 1,009 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 3.3%, which is 1.5% lower than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%.

Workforce participation is similar to Greater Melbourne at 73.3%. Approximately 16.8% of residents work from home (Census data). Key industries include construction, health care & social assistance, and manufacturing. Construction employment levels are notably high at 2.3 times the regional average.

However, professional & technical services show lower representation at 2.9% compared to the regional average of 10.1%. Many residents commute elsewhere for work (Census data). Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment levels increased by 4.3%, labour force grew by 4.5%, causing the unemployment rate to rise slightly to 3.5% (AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data). By comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 2.4%. Jobs and Skills Australia forecasts national employment expansion by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Tooradin's industry mix suggests local employment should increase by approximately 5.9% over five years and 12.3% over ten years, assuming constant population growth (simple weighting extrapolation).

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ending June 2023 shows that income in Tooradin is lower than average nationally. The median income is $51,584 and the average is $62,767. This contrasts with Greater Melbourne's median income of $57,688 and average income of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since financial year ending June 2023, current estimates for Tooradin would be approximately $56,546 (median) and $68,805 (average) as of March 2026. From the Census conducted in August 2021, household income ranks at the 62nd percentile ($1,954 weekly), while personal income is at the 45th percentile. Distribution data shows that 39.5% of individuals (705 people) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 earnings band, reflecting a pattern seen in the broader area where 32.8% occupy this range. After housing expenses, 84.9% of income remains for other expenses. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Tooradin is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Tooradin's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted entirely of houses with no other dwellings. This contrasts with Melbourne metro's mix of 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Tooradin stood at 32.7%, higher than Melbourne metro's figure. The remaining dwellings were mortgaged (53.0%) or rented (14.2%). In terms of housing costs, the median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,000, aligning with Melbourne metro's average. However, the median weekly rent in Tooradin was $350, lower than Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Tooradin's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Tooradin features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 80.3% of all households, including 41.9% couples with children, 25.8% couples without children, and 11.3% single parent families. Non-family households account for 19.7%, with lone person households at 17.3% and group households comprising 2.2%. The median household size is 2.9 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Tooradin shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

The area's university qualification rate is 12.0%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 9.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.5%) and graduate diplomas (1.3%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 46.5% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.9%) and certificates (35.6%). Educational participation is high, with 32.8% currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 13.4% in primary, 9.2% in secondary, and 3.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Tooradin has eight operational public transport stops, all of which are bus services. These stops are covered by two routes that together offer 65 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is considered good, with residents on average located 261 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents in this predominantly residential area commute outwards. Cars remain the primary mode of transportation, used by 96% of residents. On average, there are 2.2 vehicles per dwelling, higher than the regional norm.

According to the 2021 Census, 16.8% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. Across all routes, an average of nine trips per day is maintained, translating to roughly eight weekly trips per stop.

The level of general health in Tooradin is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Tooradin shows better-than-average health outcomes, as evaluated by AreaSearch using mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence data. The prevalence of common health conditions is low among the general population but higher than the national average for older, at-risk cohorts.

Approximately 52% (~923 people) have private health cover, lower than Greater Melbourne's 56.7%. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (8.8%) and asthma (8.4%). Around 70.4% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 72.6% in Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents have low chronic condition prevalence. The area has a higher proportion of residents aged 65 and over at 20.7% (369 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 15.0%. Nationally, however, this figure is lower than the broader population.

Tooradin is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Tooradin's cultural diversity was found to be below average. Its population composition showed that 87.7% were citizens, 88.5% were born in Australia, and 96.6% spoke English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Tooradin, with 45.5% of its population identifying as such, compared to Greater Melbourne's average of 43.9%.

Notably, Judaism was not represented in Tooradin's population (0.0%), whereas it constituted 1.0% across Greater Melbourne. In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were Australian at 36.6%, English at 31.2%, and Irish at 6.6%. These percentages were substantially higher than their respective regional averages of 18.4%, 20.1%, and 5.7%. Additionally, there was notable overrepresentation of Dutch ancestry in Tooradin at 2.9% (regional average: 1.2%), Hungarian at 0.6% (regional average: 0.3%), and New Zealand at 0.9% (regional average: 0.5%).

Tooradin's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Tooradin has a median age of 40, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and Australia's figure of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Tooradin has a notably over-represented 65-74 cohort (12.8% locally) and an under-represented 25-34 age group (8.6%). Between 2021 and present, the 75-84 age group grew from 3.7% to 5.8% of the population, while the 45-54 cohort declined from 13.2% to 11.9%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests significant changes in Tooradin's age profile. The 75-84 age cohort is projected to expand by 48 people (47%) from 103 to 152. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups are expected to account for 86% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. Meanwhile, the 15-24 and 55-64 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.