Pakenham - South West
Statistical Area - sa2

Pakenham - South West lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Pakenham - South West's population was around 28,580 as of August 2025. This reflected an increase of 1,797 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 26,783. The change was inferred from ABS data showing an estimated resident population of 28,352 in June 2024 and 99 validated new addresses post-Census. This resulted in a density ratio of 1,282 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, Pakenham - South West had a compound annual growth rate of 2.5%, outpacing its SA4 region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 51.9% to overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopted ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 adjusted using weighted aggregation for areas not covered by ABS data. Population growth rates by age group were applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, the area is projected to grow by 8,520 persons, reflecting a total increase of 28.5%.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Pakenham - South West recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Pakenham - South West has seen approximately 32 new home approvals annually. Development approval data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) shows a total of 164 approvals across the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, with no approvals recorded so far in FY-26. An average of 7.7 new residents per year has been arriving per dwelling constructed over these five financial years. Supply is significantly lagging demand, indicating heightened buyer competition and pricing pressures, with new homes being built at an average expected construction cost value of $421,000, consistent with regional patterns.

In the current financial year, there have been $13.0 million in commercial development approvals, suggesting balanced commercial development activity compared to Greater Melbourne. Pakenham - South West shows substantially reduced construction activity, 89.0% below the regional average per person, which typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings, being also under the national average indicating the area's established nature and potential planning limitations. New development consists of 65.0% standalone homes and 35.0% townhouses or apartments, marking a shift from the area's existing housing composition, currently at 90.0% houses. The location has approximately 2077 people per dwelling approval, demonstrating an established market. Future projections show Pakenham - South West adding 8,157 residents by 2041. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Future projections show Pakenham - South West adding 8,157 residents by 2041. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Pakenham - South West has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 14 projects likely impacting the area. Key projects are The Rise Estate - Pakenham, Pakenham Community Hospital, Maple Grove Estate, and Stockland Averley. Below is a list detailing those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Pakenham - South West has seen below average employment performance when compared to national benchmarks

Pakenham - South West, as of June 2025, has an unemployment rate of 4.9% with estimated employment growth of 3.8% over the past year. There are 15,034 residents employed while the unemployment rate is 0.3% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%.

Workforce participation is at 66.2%, slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Key employment industries include health care & social assistance, construction, and manufacturing, with manufacturing notably concentrated at 1.6 times the regional average. However, professional & technical services are under-represented, comprising only 4.6% of the workforce compared to Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited based on Census data analysis.

Over the year to June 2025, employment increased by 3.8%, while labour force grew by 4.4%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.6 percentage points in Pakenham - South West. Comparatively, Greater Melbourne saw employment grow by 3.5%, labour force expand by 4.0%, and unemployment increase by 0.5 percentage points. State-wide in Victoria as of Sep-25, employment grew by 1.08% year-on-year, adding 39,880 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%. Nationally, the unemployment rate was 4.5%, and employment growth outpaced the national average of 0.26%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years nationally. Applying these projections to Pakenham - South West's employment mix suggests local growth could be approximately 6.1%% over five years and 13.0% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

Pakenham - South West had a median taxpayer income of $50,980 and an average income of $57,671 in the financial year 2022, according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. This was below the national average at that time. Greater Melbourne's median income was $54,892 with an average income of $73,761 during the same period. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.11% since financial year 2022, current estimates for Pakenham - South West would be approximately $56,134 (median) and $63,502 (average) as of March 2025. Census data shows that household, family, and personal incomes in Pakenham - South West cluster around the 50th percentile nationally. The earnings profile indicates that the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket dominates with 41.0% of residents (11,717 people). This is similar to patterns seen at regional levels where 32.8% occupy this range. High housing costs consume 17.8% of income in Pakenham - South West. Despite this, strong earnings place disposable income at the 52nd percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 4th decile.

Pakenham - South West is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Dwelling structure in Pakenham - South West, as evaluated at the latest Census in 2016, consisted of 89.8% houses and 10.1% other dwellings. In Melbourne metro, it was 91.1% houses and 8.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Pakenham - South West stood at 19.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 51.3% and rented ones at 29.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,800, lower than Melbourne metro's $1,866 and the Australian average of $1,863. Median weekly rent in Pakenham - South West was $369, compared to Melbourne metro's $361 and Australia's national figure of $375.

Pakenham - South West features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 79.1 percent of all households, including 42.1 percent couples with children, 21.4 percent couples without children, and 14.6 percent single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 20.9 percent, with lone person households at 18.3 percent and group households comprising 2.5 percent of the total. The median household size is 3.0 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.8.

Educational attainment in Pakenham - South West aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates at 22.0%, significantly below the Greater Melbourne average of 37.0%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common at 14.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 5.3% and graduate diplomas at 2.2%. Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 38.4% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas at 12.9% and certificates at 25.5%.

Educational participation is high, with 34.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 13.5% in primary, 8.8% in secondary, and 3.9% pursuing tertiary education. In Pakenham - South West, a robust network of 8 schools educates approximately 5,172 students, operating under typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 995) with balanced educational opportunities. The educational mix includes 4 primary, 3 secondary, and 1 K-12 school. Note: where schools show 'n/a' for enrolments, please refer to the parent campus.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Pakenham - South West has 84 active public transport stops, operating a mix of train and bus services. Six routes serve these stops, providing a total of 1,854 weekly passenger trips. Residents have good transport accessibility, with an average distance of 238 meters to the nearest stop.

Service frequency is 264 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 22 weekly trips per individual stop.

Pakenham - South West's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Health data for Pakenham - South West indicates a relatively positive scenario, with low prevalence of common health conditions among its general population. While this figure is higher than the national average for older, at-risk cohorts, it remains lower than the overall average. Approximately 49% of the total population (~13,975 people) has private health cover, compared to Greater Melbourne's 51.6%.

Nationally, this percentage stands at 55.3%. The most prevalent medical conditions in the area are mental health issues and asthma, affecting 8.7% and 8.6% of residents respectively. Conversely, 71.2% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's 70.3%. The population aged 65 and over comprises 11.9%, or approximately 3,401 people, which is lower than Greater Melbourne's 13.7%. While health outcomes among seniors present some challenges requiring additional attention, the overall situation in Pakenham - South West remains relatively positive.

Pakenham - South West was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Pakenham-South West, as per the Australian Bureau of Statistics Census 2016, exhibits a higher degree of cultural diversity compared to most local areas. This is evident in its overseas-born population percentage of 31.8%, and language other than English spoken at home at 27.9%. Christianity is the predominant religion, comprising 40.3% of the population.

Notably, the 'Other' religion category represents a larger proportion of Pakenham-South West's population at 5.8%, compared to Greater Melbourne's average of 3.2%. In terms of ancestry, the top three groups are English (24.5%), Australian (23.7%), and Other (16.5%). The latter is significantly higher than the regional average of 11.4%. Certain ethnic groups show notable variations: Dutch at 2.3% (regional average 2.6%), Sri Lankan at 1.1% (same as regional), and Indian at 4.9% (compared to regional 3.2%).

Pakenham - South West's young demographic places it in the bottom 15% of areas nationwide

Pakenham - South West has a median age of 33, which is younger than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and Australia's median age of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Pakenham - South West has a higher proportion of residents aged 5-14 (16.4%) but fewer residents aged 55-64 (8.1%). Between the 2021 Census and present day, the population aged 15-24 has increased from 12.3% to 13.3%, while the 25-34 age group has decreased from 15.5% to 14.3%. By 2041, significant demographic changes are projected for Pakenham - South West. The 45-54 age cohort is expected to grow by 49%, adding 1,603 residents to reach a total of 4,890. Meanwhile, the 0-4 age cohort is projected to grow by 10% (an increase of 192 people).