Pakenham - South West
Statistical Area - sa2

Pakenham - South West lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Pakenham - South West's population is 28,715 as of November 2025. This figure shows an increase of 1,932 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 26,783. The change is inferred from ABS data showing an estimated resident population of 28,364 in June 2024 and 140 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1,288 persons per square kilometer, above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, Pakenham - South West has shown resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 2.5%, outpacing the SA4 region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 51.9% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on demographic trends and latest population numbers, a significant population increase is forecast for the area, expected to expand by 8,520 persons to 2041, recording a gain of 27.9% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Pakenham - South West recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Pakenham - South West has seen around 32 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling 164 homes. As of FY-26, four approvals have been recorded. On average, 7.7 new residents arrive per year for each dwelling constructed between FY-21 and FY-25. This suggests supply is lagging demand, leading to heightened buyer competition and pricing pressures.

New properties are constructed at an average value of $171,000, below the regional average. In this financial year, $13.0 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, indicating steady commercial investment activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Pakenham - South West records markedly lower building activity, 89.0% below the regional average per person. This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established properties. The area's development consists of 65.0% standalone homes and 35.0% townhouses or apartments, a notable shift from the existing housing mix of 90.0% houses. There are approximately 2077 people per dwelling approval in Pakenham - South West, indicating an established market.

Future projections show the area adding 8,022 residents by 2041. If current construction levels persist, housing supply could lag population growth, likely intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Pakenham - South West has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 15 projects likely impacting the area. Notable ones are The Rise Estate - Pakenham, Pakenham Community Hospital, Maple Grove Estate, and Enterprise Industry Park. Below is a list of those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Pakenham - South West has seen below average employment performance when compared to national benchmarks

Pakenham - South West has a skilled workforce with strong representation in manufacturing and industrial sectors. The unemployment rate was 4.9% as of June 2021.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 3.8%. As of June 2025, 15,034 residents are employed with an unemployment rate of 5.2%, which is 0.6 percentage points higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation in Pakenham - South West was 66.2% compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. The leading employment industries among residents were health care & social assistance, construction, and manufacturing.

Manufacturing had particularly notable concentration with employment levels at 1.6 times the regional average. However, professional & technical services were under-represented, with only 4.6% of Pakenham - South West's workforce compared to Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. Over the 12 months to June 2025, employment increased by 3.8%, while labour force increased by 4.4%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.6 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, published in May 2025, project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Pakenham - South West's employment mix suggests local growth could be approximately 6.1% over five years and 13.0% over ten years.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

Pakenham - South West had a median taxpayer income of $50,980 and an average of $57,671 in the financial year 2022, according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. This is lower than the national average, with Greater Melbourne's median income being $54,892 and average income at $73,761 during the same period. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, estimated incomes for September 2025 would be approximately $57,179 (median) and $64,684 (average). Census data indicates that household, family, and personal incomes in Pakenham - South West are around the 50th percentile nationally. The earnings profile shows that 41.0% of residents (11,773 people) fall into the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket, reflecting regional patterns where 32.8% occupy this range. High housing costs consume 17.8% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 52nd percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 4th decile.

Pakenham - South West is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Pakenham - South West, as per the latest Census, 89.8% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 10.1% being semi-detached homes, apartments, or other types. This is compared to Melbourne metro's 91.1% houses and 8.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Pakenham - South West stood at 19.5%, with mortgaged properties at 51.3% and rented dwellings at 29.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,800, lower than Melbourne metro's average of $1,866. Median weekly rent in the area was $369, compared to Melbourne metro's $361. Nationally, Pakenham - South West's mortgage repayments were below the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Pakenham - South West features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 79.1% of all households, including 42.1% couples with children, 21.4% couples without children, and 14.6% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 20.9%, with lone person households at 18.3% and group households comprising 2.5%. The median household size is 3.0 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.8.

Educational attainment in Pakenham - South West aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 22.0%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 14.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.3%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 38.4% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 12.9% and certificates at 25.5%.

Educational participation is high, with 34.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education: 13.5% in primary, 8.8% in secondary, and 3.9% pursuing tertiary education. Pakenham - South West has a robust network of 8 schools educating approximately 5,172 students, with typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 995) offering balanced educational opportunities. The educational mix includes 4 primary, 3 secondary, and 1 K-12 school. Note: where schools show 'n/a' for enrolments, please refer to the parent campus.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Pakenham - South West has 84 active public transport stops. These are a mix of train and bus stations. Six routes serve these stops, collectively providing 1,854 weekly passenger trips.

Residents' average distance to the nearest stop is 238 meters. Service frequency averages 264 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 22 weekly trips per individual stop.

Pakenham - South West's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Health data shows that Pakenham - South West residents have a relatively low prevalence of common health conditions compared to the general population, but higher than the national average for older and at-risk cohorts. Approximately 49% (~14,041 people) of the total population has private health cover, which is lower than Greater Melbourne's 51.6%. The most prevalent medical conditions are mental health issues (8.7%) and asthma (8.6%), while 71.2% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments.

This compares to 70.3% in Greater Melbourne. In this area, 11.9% (~3,417 people) of residents are aged 65 and over, lower than Greater Melbourne's 13.7%. Health outcomes among seniors require more attention than the broader population.

Pakenham - South West was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Pakenham-South West had a higher cultural diversity compared to most local areas, with 31.8% of its population born overseas and 27.9% speaking languages other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Pakenham-South West, comprising 40.3% of the population. Notably, the 'Other' religious category had a higher representation in Pakenham-South West at 5.8%, compared to Greater Melbourne's average of 3.2%.

In terms of ancestry, English was the largest group at 24.5%, followed by Australian at 23.7% and Other at 16.5%, which was significantly higher than the regional average of 11.4%. Some ethnic groups showed notable differences: Dutch were slightly overrepresented at 2.3%, Sri Lankan representation remained similar at 1.1%, and Indian representation was higher at 4.9% compared to Greater Melbourne's average of 3.2%.

Pakenham - South West's young demographic places it in the bottom 15% of areas nationwide

The median age of Pakenham - South West is 33, which is younger than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and Australia's national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Pakenham - South West has a higher proportion of residents aged 5-14 (16.4%) but fewer residents aged 55-64 (8.1%). Between the 2021 Census and the present day, the 15 to 24 age group has increased from 12.3% to 13.3% of the population, while the 25 to 34 cohort has decreased from 15.5% to 14.3%. By 2041, significant demographic shifts are projected for Pakenham - South West. The 45 to 54 age group is expected to grow by 48%, adding 1,587 residents to reach a total of 4,890. Meanwhile, the 0 to 4 age group is projected to grow by 9%, with an increase of 182 people.