Pakenham - South West

Pakenham - South West lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of November 2025, Pakenham - South West's population is approximately 28,715, marking a 7.2% increase from the 2021 Census figure of 26,783 people. This growth is inferred from ABS estimates: 28,364 residents in June 2024 and an additional 140 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density ratio is 1,288 persons per square kilometer, exceeding the national average assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade (2015-2025), Pakenham - South West has shown robust growth with a compound annual growth rate of 2.5%, outperforming its SA4 region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 51.9% to recent population gains in the area. AreaSearch employs ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022.

For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, Pakenham - South West is projected to experience significant population growth, with an expected increase of 8,520 persons, reflecting a total gain of 27.9% over the 17-year period (2024-2041).

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Pakenham - South West recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Pakenham - South West has seen approximately 32 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling 164 homes. As of FY-26, 4 approvals have been recorded. On average, 7.7 new residents arrive per dwelling constructed each year between FY-21 and FY-25. This indicates a substantial lag in supply compared to demand, which typically leads to heightened buyer competition and pricing pressures.

The average construction cost of new properties is $171,000, below the regional average, suggesting more affordable housing options for buyers. In FY-26, commercial development approvals totalling $13.0 million have been recorded, indicating steady commercial investment activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Pakenham - South West records markedly lower building activity, at 89.0% below the regional average per person. This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established properties. This activity is also below average nationally, reflecting the area's maturity and possible planning constraints. New development consists of 65.0% standalone homes and 35.0% townhouses or apartments, indicating a shift from the area's existing housing composition, which is currently 90.0% houses.

The location has approximately 2077 people per dwelling approval, demonstrating an established market. Future projections show Pakenham - South West adding 8,022 residents by 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Should current construction levels persist, housing supply could lag population growth, likely intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Pakenham - South West has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 31stth percentile nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 15 projects likely to impact the area. Notable ones include The Rise Estate - Pakenham, Pakenham Community Hospital, Maple Grove Estate, and Enterprise Industry Park. The following details those expected to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Pakenham - South West has seen below average employment performance when compared to national benchmarks

Pakenham - South West has a skilled workforce with strong representation in manufacturing and industrial sectors. The unemployment rate was 4.9% as of September 2025.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 4.2%. There are 14,952 residents employed while the unemployment rate is 0.2% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%. Workforce participation is standard at 66.2%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Leading employment industries include health care & social assistance, construction, and manufacturing, with manufacturing notably concentrated at 1.6 times the regional average.

Professional & technical services are under-represented at 4.6% of the workforce compared to 10.1% in Greater Melbourne. Local employment opportunities appear limited based on Census data analysis. Over the year to September 2025, employment increased by 4.2% while labour force grew by 4.7%, raising the unemployment rate by 0.5 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne saw employment grow by 3.0%, labour force expand by 3.3%, and unemployment rise by 0.3 percentage points. State-wide in Victoria as of 25-Nov, employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%. National employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% growth over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Pakenham - South West's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 13.0% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localised population projections.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

The median taxpayer income in Pakenham - South West SA2 is $50,980 and the average is $57,671 according to AreaSearch's aggregation of postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022. This is lower than the national average. In Greater Melbourne, the median income is $54,892 and the average is $73,761. Based on a Wage Price Index growth rate of 12.16% from financial year 2022 to September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $57,179 (median) and $64,684 (average). According to census data, household, family, and personal incomes in Pakenham - South West are modest, ranking between the 46th and 53rd percentiles. The earnings profile shows that 41.0% of residents (11,773 people) fall into the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket, reflecting regional patterns where 32.8% occupy this range. Housing costs consume 17.8% of income in the area. Despite this, disposable income ranks at the 51st percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 4th decile.

Pakenham - South West is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Pakenham - South West, as per the latest Census evaluation, 89.8% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 10.1% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments, and other dwelling types. This compares to Melbourne metropolitan's figures of 91.1% houses and 8.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Pakenham - South West stood at 19.5%, with mortgaged properties at 51.3% and rented dwellings at 29.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,800, lower than Melbourne metro's average of $1,866. Weekly rent in the area was $369, slightly higher than Melbourne metro's figure of $361. Nationally, Pakenham - South West's median monthly mortgage repayments were below the Australian average of $1,863, and weekly rents were lower than the national figure of $375.

Pakenham - South West features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 79.1% of all households, including 42.1% couples with children, 21.4% couples without children, and 14.6% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 20.9%, with lone person households at 18.3% and group households making up 2.5%. The median household size is 3.0 people, larger than Greater Melbourne's average of 2.8.

Educational attainment in Pakenham - South West aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 22.0%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent at 14.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.3%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Vocational credentials are held by 38.4% of residents aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 12.9% and certificates at 25.5%. Educational participation is high, with 34.4% currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 13.5% in primary, 8.8% in secondary, and 3.9% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Pakenham - South West has 84 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. Six routes serve these stops, facilitating 1,854 weekly passenger trips in total. Residents have good transport accessibility, with an average distance of 238 meters to the nearest stop.

The service frequency is 264 trips daily across all routes, equating to about 22 weekly trips per individual stop.

Pakenham - South West's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Pakenham - South West residents have a relatively low prevalence of common health conditions compared to the general population, but higher than the national average among older and at-risk cohorts. Approximately 49% of the total population (~14,041 people) has private health cover, which is lower than Greater Melbourne's 51.6% and the national average of 55.3%. Mental health issues and asthma are the most common medical conditions in the area, affecting 8.7% and 8.6% of residents respectively.

71.2% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 70.3% across Greater Melbourne. The area has 11.9% of residents aged 65 and over (3,417 people), lower than Greater Melbourne's 13.7%. Health outcomes among seniors require more attention than the broader population.

Pakenham - South West was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Pakenham-South West, as per the 2016 Census, had a higher cultural diversity than most local areas. Overseas-born residents made up 31.8%, while those speaking a language other than English at home comprised 27.9%. Christianity was the predominant religion, with 40.3% of the population.

However, 'Other' religions were overrepresented at 5.8%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 3.2%. In terms of ancestry, the top groups were English (24.5%), Australian (23.7%), and Other (16.5%), which was higher than the regional average of 11.4%. Notably, Dutch (2.3% vs 2.6%), Sri Lankan (1.1% vs 1.1%), and Indian (4.9% vs 3.2%) groups also showed divergences in representation.

Pakenham - South West's young demographic places it in the bottom 15% of areas nationwide

Pakenham - South West has a median age of 33, which is younger than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and Australia's national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Pakenham - South West has a higher proportion of residents aged 5-14 (16.4%) but fewer residents aged 55-64 (8.1%). Between the 2021 Census and the present day, the population aged 15-24 has increased from 12.3% to 13.3%, while the 25-34 age group has decreased from 15.5% to 14.3%. By 2041, significant demographic shifts are projected for Pakenham - South West. The 45-54 age cohort is expected to grow by 48%, adding 1,587 residents to reach a total of 4,890. Meanwhile, the 0-4 age cohort is projected to grow by a modest 9%, an increase of 182 people.