Pakenham - South East
Statistical Area - sa2

Pakenham - South East lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Pakenham - South East's population is 7,397 as of November 2025. This reflects a 14.9% increase since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 6,439 people. The change is inferred from an estimated resident population of 6,751 in June 2024 and an additional 670 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 239 persons per square kilometer, offering significant space per person and potential room for further development. Pakenham - South East's growth exceeded both national (8.9%) and state averages, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Natural growth contributed approximately 50.8% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 for each SA2 area. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Exceptional growth is predicted over the period, with the area expected to increase by 3,058 persons to 2041 based on the latest population numbers, indicating a total increase of 32.0% over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Pakenham - South East was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Pakenham - South East has recorded approximately 89 residential properties granted approval each year. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25445 homes were approved, with a further 61 approved in FY26 as of now. Each dwelling built over these five years has resulted in an average of 2 new residents per year, indicating solid demand that supports property values.

New homes are being constructed at an average expected cost of $272,000, which is below regional norms and reflects more affordable housing options for purchasers. In FY26, there have been $2.9 million in commercial approvals, suggesting the area's residential character. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Pakenham - South East has slightly more development, with 28.0% above the regional average per person over the five-year period. This level of activity is substantially higher than the national average, indicating strong developer confidence in the location. New development consists of 48.0% detached houses and 52.0% townhouses or apartments, marking a shift from the area's existing housing composition, which is currently 66.0% houses. This focus on higher-density living creates more affordable entry points and caters to downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers.

The estimated population per dwelling approval in the area is 488 people, reflecting its quiet, low activity development environment. Looking ahead, Pakenham - South East is expected to grow by 2,367 residents through to 2041. Existing development levels appear aligned with future requirements, suggesting stable market conditions without significant price pressures.

Pakenham - South East has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Area performance is significantly influenced by local infrastructure changes, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified 12 such projects expected to impact the area. Notable ones include Kala Estate, Pakenham Roads Upgrade, Enterprise Industry Park, and Pakenham Revitalisation Project - Stage 1 (Main Street Gateway). The following list details those most relevant:.

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Employment drivers in Pakenham - South East are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

Pakenham - South East has a skilled workforce with the construction sector being notably prominent. The unemployment rate in June 2025 was 8.1%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 3.7%. As of June 2025, 3,293 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 3.4% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation in Pakenham - South East lagged significantly at 56.3%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. The dominant employment sectors among residents included health care & social assistance, construction, and manufacturing.

Construction was particularly specialized with an employment share of 1.4 times the regional level. Professional & technical services employed only 4.1% of local workers, below Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. The ratio of 0.9 workers per resident indicated substantial local employment opportunities. Over the 12 months to June 2025, employment increased by 3.7%, while labour force grew by 4.4%, resulting in an unemployment rise of 0.6 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 3.5%, labour force growth of 4.0%, with unemployment rising by 0.5 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 projected national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Pakenham - South East's employment mix suggested local growth of approximately 6.1% over five years and 12.9% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes only.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

Pakenham - South East had a median taxpayer income of $50,923 and an average of $57,768 in financial year 2022, according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. This was lower than the national average at that time. Greater Melbourne's median income was $54,892 and average income was $73,761 during the same period. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, estimated incomes for September 2025 would be approximately $57,115 (median) and $64,793 (average). Census data shows household, family, and personal incomes in Pakenham - South East fell between the 16th and 23rd percentiles nationally. Income distribution revealed that 31.7% of residents earned between $1,500 and $2,999 annually, which is similar to the metropolitan region's 32.8%. Housing affordability pressures were severe in Pakenham - South East, with only 79.0% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 12th percentile nationally.

Pakenham - South East displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Pakenham - South East had 65.8% houses and 34.3% other dwellings in its latest Census evaluation, compared to Melbourne metro's 91.1% houses and 8.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Pakenham - South East was 24.1%, similar to Melbourne metro, with mortgaged dwellings at 32.1% and rented ones at 43.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,517, lower than Melbourne metro's average of $1,866. Median weekly rent in Pakenham - South East was $335, compared to Melbourne metro's $361. Nationally, Pakenham - South East's mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,517 versus Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Pakenham - South East features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 63.9% of all households, including 23.2% couples with children, 25.4% couples without children, and 13.7% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 36.1%, with lone person households at 32.7% and group households comprising 3.3% of the total. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.8.

Educational attainment in Pakenham - South East aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 19.5%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 11.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.4%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 39.1% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas account for 12.0% and certificates for 27.1%.

Educational participation is high, with 29.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.0% in primary education, 5.9% in secondary education, and 4.4% pursuing tertiary education. Educational facilities appear to be located outside the immediate catchment boundaries, requiring families to access schools in neighboring areas.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Pakenham - South East has 38 active public transport stops operating within it. These stops are a mix of train and bus services. They are serviced by 18 individual routes which collectively provide 3,855 weekly passenger trips.

Transport accessibility is rated as good with residents typically located 253 meters from the nearest transport stop. Service frequency averages 550 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 101 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Pakenham - South East is well below average with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Health data shows significant health challenges in Pakenham - South East, affecting both younger and older age groups. The area has a relatively low private health cover rate of approximately 49%, covering around 3,617 people, compared to Greater Melbourne's 51.6% and the national average of 55.3%. Mental health issues and arthritis are the most common conditions, affecting 9.8% and 9.4% of residents respectively.

About 64.0% of residents report no medical ailments, lower than Greater Melbourne's 70.3%. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over, at 19.5% (1,443 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 13.7%. Health outcomes among seniors present similar challenges as the general population.

Pakenham - South East was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Pakenham-South East, surveyed in June 2016, had a higher cultural diversity than most local areas. Overseas-born residents comprised 32.1%, with 24.5% speaking languages other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion (42.6%).

'Other' religions were overrepresented at 5.7%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 3.2%. Ancestry-wise, English (27.5%), Australian (24.1%), and Other (14.1%) were the top groups. Notably, Sri Lankan ancestry was slightly higher at 1.2% (regional average: 1.1%), Dutch at 2.2% (vs regional 2.6%), and Hungarian at 0.5% (vs regional 0.4%).

Pakenham - South East's population is younger than the national pattern

Pakenham South East's median age is 35 years, which is slightly younger than Greater Melbourne's 37 and the national average of 38 years. The 75-84 age group has strong representation at 8.3%, compared to Greater Melbourne, while the 45-54 cohort is less prevalent at 9.6%. Between 2021 and present, the 35-44 age group has grown from 12.2% to 13.6% of the population. Conversely, the 25-34 cohort has declined from 19.8% to 18.5%. By 2041, significant demographic changes are forecast for Pakenham South East. The 65-74 age group is projected to rise substantially by 371 people (62%), from 602 to 974. Meanwhile, the 0-4 cohort is expected to grow modestly by 8% (35 people).