Pakenham - South East

Pakenham - South East lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Pakenham - South East's population is approximately 7,397 as of November 2025. This figure represents a growth of 958 people, an increase of 14.9% since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 6,439. The change was inferred from the estimated resident population of 6,751 in June 2024 and an additional 670 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 239 persons per square kilometer, indicating significant space per person and potential for further development. The area's growth rate exceeded both national (8.9%) and state averages since the 2021 census. Natural growth contributed approximately 50.8% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population dynamics predict exceptional growth, with the area expected to increase by 3,058 persons to 2041 based on latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a total increase of 32.0% over the 17-year period.

The level of residential development activity in Pakenham - South East was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Pakenham - South East has recorded approximately 89 residential properties granted approval annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, a total of 445 homes were approved, with an additional 79 approved in FY26 as of now. On average, each dwelling built over these years has resulted in two new residents per year.

This solid demand supports property values and reflects more affordable housing options, with new homes being constructed at an average value of $272,000, below regional norms. In terms of commercial approvals, Pakenham - South East has seen $2.9 million in FY26, indicating the area's residential character. Compared to Greater Melbourne, the region has slightly more development, with 28.0% above the regional average per person over the past five years. This suggests reasonable buyer options while sustaining existing property demand. Notably, this activity is substantially higher than the national average, reflecting strong developer confidence in the location. New development in Pakenham - South East consists of 48.0% detached houses and 52.0% townhouses or apartments.

This focus on higher-density living creates more affordable entry points, appealing to downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This represents a notable shift from the area's existing housing composition, currently at 66.0% houses. The estimated population density of 488 people per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low activity development environment. Looking ahead, Pakenham - South East is expected to grow by 2,367 residents through to 2041, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Existing development levels appear aligned with future requirements, maintaining stable market conditions without significant price pressures.

Pakenham - South East has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 39thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified twelve projects likely affecting this region. Notable ones are Kala Estate, Pakenham Roads Upgrade, Enterprise Industry Park, and Pakenham Revitalisation Project - Stage 1 (Main Street Gateway). The following list details those most relevant:.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Pakenham - South East has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Pakenham - South East has a skilled workforce with the construction sector being notably represented. The unemployment rate was 7.7% in September 2025, which is 3.0% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 4.9%. As of September 2025, 3,244 residents were employed and workforce participation was 56.3%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. The dominant employment sectors among residents include health care & social assistance, construction, and manufacturing. Construction is particularly specialized with an employment share of 1.4 times the regional level.

Professional & technical services employ only 4.1% of local workers, below Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. There were 0.9 workers for each resident at the Census, indicating substantial local employment opportunities. Over the 12 months to September 2025, employment increased by 4.9%, labour force increased by 4.4%, and unemployment fell by 0.4 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 3.0% with a slight increase in unemployment. State-level data from 25-Nov shows Victoria's employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, adding 41,950 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%. National employment forecasts suggest growth of 6.6% over five years and 12.9% over ten years for Pakenham - South East, based on industry-specific projections applied to the local employment mix.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

The median taxpayer income in Pakenham - South East SA2 was $50,923 and the average was $57,768 according to AreaSearch's aggregation of postcode level ATO data for the financial year 2022. This is lower than national averages; Greater Melbourne had a median income of $54,892 and an average of $73,761 in the same period. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since then, estimated incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $57,115 (median) and $64,793 (average). Census data indicates that household, family, and personal incomes in Pakenham - South East fall between the 15th and 23rd percentiles nationally. The income distribution shows that 31.7% of residents (2,344 people) earn between $1,500 and $2,999, similar to metropolitan regions where this cohort represents 32.8%. Housing affordability pressures are severe; only 79.0% of income remains after housing costs, ranking at the 12th percentile nationally.

Pakenham - South East displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

The dwelling structure in Pakenham - South East, as per the latest Census, consisted of 65.8% houses and 34.2% other dwellings. This is compared to Melbourne metro's 91.1% houses and 8.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Pakenham - South East was at 24.1%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (32.1%) or rented (43.9%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,517, below Melbourne metro's average of $1,866. The median weekly rent figure was recorded at $335, compared to Melbourne metro's $361. Nationally, Pakenham - South East's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Pakenham - South East features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 63.9% of all households, including 23.2% couples with children, 25.4% couples without children, and 13.7% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 36.1%, with lone person households at 32.7% and group households comprising 3.3% of the total. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.8.

Educational attainment in Pakenham - South East aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 19.5%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent at 11.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.4%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 39.1% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (12.0%) and certificates (27.1%).

Educational participation is high, with 29.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.0% in primary education, 5.9% in secondary education, and 4.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis indicates 38 active transport stops operating within Pakenham - South East. These include a mix of train and bus services. The stops are serviced by 18 individual routes, collectively providing 3,855 weekly passenger trips.

Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 253 meters from the nearest stop. Service frequency averages 550 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 101 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Pakenham - South East is well below average with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Health data indicates significant health challenges for Pakenham - South East, affecting both younger and older age groups. Private health cover stands at approximately 49%, or around 3,617 people, compared to Greater Melbourne's 51.6% and the national average of 55.3%. Mental health issues and arthritis are the most prevalent conditions, impacting 9.8% and 9.4% of residents respectively.

A total of 64% report no medical ailments, lower than Greater Melbourne's 70.3%. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over, at 19.5% (1,443 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 13.7%. Health outcomes among seniors present challenges broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Pakenham - South East was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Pakenham-South East, surveyed in August 2016, had a higher cultural diversity than most local areas, with 32.1% of residents born overseas and 24.5% speaking languages other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 42.6%. The 'Other' religious category was overrepresented at 5.7%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 3.2%.

In ancestry, English (27.5%), Australian (24.1%), and Other (14.1%) were the top groups. Notably, Dutch (2.2% vs regional 2.6%), Sri Lankan (1.2% vs 1.1%), and Hungarian (0.5% vs 0.4%) were overrepresented.

Pakenham - South East's population is younger than the national pattern

Pakenham South East's median age in 2021 was 35 years, slightly younger than Greater Melbourne's 37 and the national average of 38 years. The 75-84 age group constituted 8.3%, higher than Greater Melbourne, while the 45-54 cohort made up 9.6%. Between 2021 and present, the 35 to 44 age group grew from 12.2% to 13.6%, but the 25 to 34 cohort decreased from 19.8% to 18.5%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant changes: the 65-74 age group is projected to increase by 371 people (62%), from 602 to 974, while the 0-4 cohort grows modestly by 8% (35 people).