Pakenham - South East
Statistical Area - sa2

Pakenham - South East lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Pakenham - South East's population is 6,987 as of Aug 2025. This shows an increase of 548 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 6,439. The increase is inferred from ABS data: estimated resident population of 6,753 in June 2024 and 491 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 225 persons per square kilometer. Over the past decade, Pakenham - South East's growth rate was 3.4% annually, exceeding its SA4 region. Natural growth contributed approximately 50.8% to recent population gains.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends anticipate exceptional growth, placing Pakenham - South East in the top 10% of statistical areas nationally. By 2041, based on latest numbers, the area is expected to increase by 3,058 persons, a total rise of 39.8%.

The level of residential development activity in Pakenham - South East was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Pakenham - South East has consistently recorded around 89 residential properties granted approval each year. Development approval data from the ABS shows a total of 445 homes approved over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, with an additional 22 approved in FY26 so far. The average number of people moving to the area per new home constructed over these five years is 2, indicating healthy demand that supports property values. New homes are being built at an average construction cost value of $308,000, which is below the regional average, suggesting more affordable housing options for buyers.

In terms of commercial development, $2.9 million in approvals have been registered this financial year, indicating limited focus on commercial projects. Comparatively, Pakenham - South East records elevated construction activity when measured against Greater Melbourne. Over the past five years, it has seen 28.0% more construction per person than the regional average, reflecting strong developer confidence in the area. The new development consists of 48.0% detached houses and 52.0% townhouses or apartments, marking a significant shift from existing housing patterns where currently 66.0% are houses. This focus on higher-density living creates more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers, potentially due to diminishing developable land availability and evolving lifestyle preferences. The area's development environment is quiet and low activity, with an estimated count of 488 people per dwelling approval.

Looking ahead, Pakenham - South East is projected to grow by 2,777 residents through to 2041. Development appears to be keeping pace with this projected growth, although buyers may face increasing competition as the population expands.

Pakenham - South East has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 12 projects that could impact this region. Notable ones include Stockland Averley, Kala Estate, Pakenham Roads Upgrade, and Pakenham Central Marketplace Redevelopment. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

AreaSearch assessment indicates Pakenham - South East faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

Pakenham - South East has a skilled workforce with the construction sector being prominent. The unemployment rate was 8.1% as of June 2021.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 3.7%. As of June 2025, there are 3,293 residents in work and the unemployment rate is 3.4%, which is above Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation lags significantly at 56.3% compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Leading employment industries among residents include health care & social assistance, construction, and manufacturing.

The area shows strong specialization in construction with an employment share of 1.4 times the regional level. However, professional & technical employs only 4.1% of local workers, below Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. There are approximately 0.9 workers for each resident, indicating substantial local employment opportunities. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment increased by 3.7%, labour force increased by 4.4%, leading to an unemployment rise of 0.6 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne saw employment grow by 3.5%, labour force expand by 4.0%, with unemployment rising by 0.5 percentage points. State-level data from Sep-25 shows that Victoria's employment grew by 1.08% year-on-year, adding 39,880 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%. National employment forecasts from May 2025 project national growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Pakenham - South East's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.1% over five years and 12.9% over ten years, although these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes only.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

Pakenham - South East's median income among taxpayers was $50,923 and average income stood at $57,768 in financial year 2022. These figures are lower than Greater Melbourne's median income of $54,892 and average income of $73,761 during the same period. By March 2025, based on a 10.11% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2022, estimated incomes would be approximately $56,071 (median) and $63,608 (average). According to Census 2021 income data, household, family and personal incomes in Pakenham - South East all fall between the 16th and 23rd percentiles nationally. The largest income segment comprises 31.7% earning $1,500 - 2,999 weekly, with 2,214 residents in this category. This is consistent with broader trends across the metropolitan region showing 32.8% in the same income bracket. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 79.0% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 12th percentile nationally.

Pakenham - South East displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Pakenham - South East's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, was 65.8% houses and 34.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). Melbourne metro had 91.1% houses and 8.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Pakenham - South East was 24.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 32.1% and rented at 43.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,517, below Melbourne metro's $1,866. Median weekly rent was $335, compared to Melbourne metro's $361. Nationally, Pakenham - South East's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,517 vs Australia's $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Pakenham - South East features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 63.9% of all households, including 23.2% couples with children, 25.4% couples without children, and 13.7% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 36.1%, with lone person households at 32.7% and group households comprising 3.3%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.8.

Educational attainment in Pakenham - South East aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 19.5%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 11.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.4%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 39.1% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (12.0%) and certificates (27.1%). Educational participation is high at 29.5%, with residents currently enrolled in primary education (10.0%), secondary education (5.9%), and tertiary education (4.4%).

Educational facilities seem to be located outside the immediate catchment, necessitating families to access schools in neighboring areas.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Pakenham - South East has 38 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 18 individual routes, collectively facilitating 3,855 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated good, with residents typically located 253 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 550 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 101 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Pakenham - South East is well below average with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Health data indicates significant health challenges in Pakenham - South East, affecting both younger and older age groups. The rate of private health cover in this area is relatively low at approximately 49% (~3,416 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 51.6% and the national average of 55.3%. Mental health issues and arthritis are the most common conditions, affecting 9.8% and 9.4% of residents respectively.

64.0% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 70.3% in Greater Melbourne. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 19.5% (1,363 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 13.7%. Health outcomes among seniors present challenges broadly aligned with the general population's health profile.

Pakenham - South East was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Pakenham-South East, surveyed from June 2016 to May 2021, showed higher cultural diversity than most local areas. It had 32.1% of its population born overseas and 24.5% speaking languages other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, with 42.6%.

The 'Other' religious category comprised 5.7%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 3.2%. Ancestry-wise, English (27.5%), Australian (24.1%), and Other (14.1%) were the top groups. Notable differences included Sri Lankan at 1.2% (vs regional 1.1%), Dutch at 2.2% (vs 2.6%), and Hungarian at 0.5% (vs 0.4%).

Pakenham - South East's population is younger than the national pattern

Pakenham's median age in the South East region is 35 years, which is slightly younger than Greater Melbourne's median age of 37 and somewhat younger than Australia's national average of 38 years. The 75-84 age group makes up a strong 8.3% of Pakenham's population compared to Greater Melbourne, while the 45-54 cohort represents 9.6%. Between 2021 and now, the proportion of the population aged 35 to 44 has grown from 12.2% to 13.6%, while the 25 to 34 age group has declined from 19.8% to 18.5%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant changes in Pakenham's population structure, with the 65-74 age cohort expected to rise substantially by 405 people (71%), increasing from 568 to 974 individuals.