Bunyip - Garfield

Population growth drivers in Bunyip - Garfield are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Bunyip - Garfield's population is around 10,426 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 558 people (5.7%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 9,868 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 10,242 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 86 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 28 persons per square kilometer, providing ample space per person. Over the past decade, Bunyip - Garfield has demonstrated resilient growth patterns with a 1.8% compound annual growth rate, outpacing the state. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by interstate migration, which contributed approximately 40.3% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers, including natural growth and overseas migration, were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering the projected demographic shifts, an above-median population growth of national statistical areas is projected, with the area expected to increase by 1,743 persons by 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, recording a gain of 14.9% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Bunyip - Garfield among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Bunyip - Garfield has seen around 53 new homes approved each year, with 266 homes approved over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 22 so far in FY-26. Given an average of 3.2 new residents per year arriving per dwelling constructed over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), supply is substantially lagging demand, which generally means heightened buyer competition and pricing pressures, while new properties are constructed at an average value of $341,000. Additionally, $3.1 million in commercial approvals have been registered this financial year, demonstrating the area's primarily residential nature.

Relative to Greater Melbourne, Bunyip - Garfield shows approximately half the construction activity per person, placing it among the 73rd percentile of areas assessed nationally. New building activity consists of 85.0% detached houses and 15.0% townhouses or apartments, preserving the area's low-density nature with an emphasis on detached housing that attracts space-seeking buyers. With around 174 people per dwelling approval, Bunyip - Garfield shows characteristics of a low-density area.

Looking ahead, Bunyip - Garfield is expected to grow by 1,559 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Bunyip - Garfield has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 32ndth percentile nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total, 4 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include the Gippsland Line Upgrade - Bunyip and Longwarry Stations, Pakenham East Precinct, Stockland Averley, and Ridgelea Estate - Pakenham East, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis places Bunyip - Garfield well above average for employment performance across multiple indicators

Bunyip - Garfield has a balanced workforce spanning white and blue collar employment, with the construction sector a particular standout in terms of representation, an unemployment rate of only 3.0%, and 4.6% in estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 5,867 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 1.7% below Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%, and workforce participation is broadly similar to Greater Melbourne's 71.3%. Based on Census responses, a moderate 21.1% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Employment among residents is concentrated in construction, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. The area shows particularly strong specialization in construction, with an employment share 2.0 times the regional level. On the other hand, professional & technical services are under-represented, with only 5.2% of Bunyip - Garfield's workforce compared to 10.1% in Greater Melbourne. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of the Census working population versus the resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, over the 12 months to December 2025, employment increased by 4.6% while the labour force increased by 4.7%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.2 percentage points. This compares to Greater Melbourne, where employment grew by 2.4%, the labour force expanded by 2.8%, and unemployment rose 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Bunyip - Garfield. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Bunyip - Garfield's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.9% over five years and 12.3% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for FY-23 reveals that income in the Bunyip - Garfield SA2 is slightly lower than average on a national basis, with the median assessed at $53,265 while the average income stands at $65,875. This contrasts with Greater Melbourne's figures of a median income of $57,688 and an average income of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $57,659 (median) and $71,310 (average) as of September 2025. From the 2021 Census, household income ranks at the 59th percentile ($1,897 weekly), while personal income sits at the 42nd percentile. The earnings profile shows the predominant cohort spans 34.7% of locals (3,617 people) in the $1,500 - 2,999 category, reflecting patterns seen in the region where 32.8% similarly occupy this range. After housing, 86.1% of income remains for other expenses and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Bunyip - Garfield is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within Bunyip - Garfield, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 97.9% houses and 2.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Bunyip - Garfield was well beyond that of Melbourne metro, at 37.4%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (49.9%) or rented (12.7%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was below the Melbourne metro average at $1,950, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $311, compared to Melbourne metro's $2,000 and $390. Nationally, Bunyip - Garfield's mortgage repayments are higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially below the national figure of $375.

Bunyip - Garfield features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 80.0% of all households, comprising 39.5% couples with children, 31.0% couples without children, and 8.5% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 20.0%, with lone person households at 18.5% and group households comprising 1.7% of the total. The median household size of 2.8 people is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Educational attainment in Bunyip - Garfield aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (16.7%) substantially below the Greater Melbourne average of 37.0%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 12.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.4%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 43.6% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (10.3%) and certificates (33.3%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 30.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.5% in primary education, 9.8% in secondary education, and 3.3% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 13 active transport stops operating within Bunyip - Garfield, comprising a mix of train services. These stops are serviced by 7 individual routes, collectively providing 317 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as limited, with residents typically located 1003 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward, and the car remains the dominant mode at 92%. Vehicle ownership averages 2.2 per dwelling, which is above the regional average. Some 21.1% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 45 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 24 weekly trips per individual stop.

Bunyip - Garfield's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with a fairly standard level of common health conditions seen across both young and old age cohorts

Health data indicates relatively positive outcomes for Bunyip - Garfield residents, with AreaSearch's analysis of mortality rates and health conditions showing results broadly in line with national benchmarks. There is a fairly standard level of common health conditions across both young and old age cohorts, and the rate of private health cover slightly lags the average SA2 area at approximately 52% of the total population (~5,411 people), compared to 56.7% across Greater Melbourne.

The most common medical conditions in the area are asthma and arthritis, impacting 8.6% and 8.2% of residents, respectively, while 68.3% declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among the working-age population are broadly typical. The area has 20.9% of residents aged 65 and over (2,184 people), which is higher than the 15.1% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, with national rankings even higher than those of the general population.

Bunyip - Garfield is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Bunyip - Garfield was found to be below average in terms of cultural diversity, with 89.7% of its population being citizens, 89.2% born in Australia, and 96.9% speaking English only at home. The main religion in Bunyip - Garfield is Christianity, which makes up 50.3% of people in Bunyip - Garfield, compared to 43.0% across Greater Melbourne.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Bunyip - Garfield are Australian, comprising 34.4% of the population (substantially higher than the regional average of 18.4%), English, comprising 30.6% of the population (substantially higher than the regional average of 20.1%), and Irish, comprising 9.3% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of other ethnic groups: Dutch is overrepresented at 3.5% in Bunyip - Garfield (vs 1.2% regionally), Maltese at 0.5% (vs 1.1%), and Italian at 3.0% (vs 5.2%).

Bunyip - Garfield's population is slightly older than the national pattern

With a median age of 40, Bunyip - Garfield is somewhat higher than the Greater Melbourne figure of 37 and similarly marginally higher than Australia's 38 years. Compared to the Greater Melbourne average, the 65 - 74 cohort is notably over-represented (11.7% locally), while 25 - 34 year-olds are under-represented (9.4%). In the period since 2021, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 5.4% to 7.1% of the population, while the 65 to 74 cohort increased from 10.1% to 11.7%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 13.9% to 11.2% and the 25 to 34 group dropped from 10.8% to 9.4%. Demographic modeling suggests Bunyip - Garfield's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041. The 65 to 74 age cohort is projected to see notable expansion, increasing by 426 people (35%) from 1,224 to 1,651. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 69% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. Meanwhile, the 0 to 4 cohort is projected to decline by 26 people.