Bunyip - Garfield

Population growth drivers in Bunyip - Garfield are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Bunyip-Garfield's population is around 10,426 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 558 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 9,868 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 10,242 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 86 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 28 persons per square kilometer. Over the past decade, Bunyip-Garfield has demonstrated resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 1.8%, outpacing the state. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by interstate migration that contributed approximately 40.3% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering the projected demographic shifts, an above median population growth is projected for Bunyip-Garfield, with the area expected to increase by 1,743 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a gain of 14.9% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Bunyip - Garfield among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Garfield, Bunyip has seen approximately 53 new homes approved annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25266 homes were approved, with an additional 20 approved in FY26 so far. On average, over these five years, around 3.2 new residents arrived per dwelling constructed.

This supply lagging demand indicates heightened buyer competition and pricing pressures, with new properties being constructed at an average cost of $341,000. In the current financial year, $3.1 million in commercial approvals have been registered, reflecting the area's primarily residential nature. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Bunyip - Garfield shows roughly half the construction activity per person and ranks among the 73rd percentile nationally for areas assessed.

New building activity consists of 85% detached houses and 15% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's low density character and attracting space-seeking buyers. With around 174 people per dwelling approval, Bunyip - Garfield exhibits characteristics of a low-density area. By 2041, AreaSearch estimates that the population is expected to grow by 1,559 residents. Given current construction levels, housing supply should meet demand adequately, creating favourable conditions for buyers and potentially enabling growth beyond current forecasts.

Bunyip - Garfield has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 32ndth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified four projects likely to affect this region. Notable projects include the Gippsland Line Upgrade at Bunyip and Longwarry Stations, the Pakenham East Precinct development, Stockland Averley project, and Ridgelea Estate in Pakenham East. The following details those most relevant.

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AreaSearch analysis places Bunyip - Garfield well above average for employment performance across multiple indicators

Bunyip Garfield has a diverse workforce with balanced white and blue collar jobs. The construction sector is prominent, with an unemployment rate of 3.0% and estimated employment growth of 4.6% in the past year as of September 2025. In this period, 5813 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.7%, lower than Greater Melbourne's 4.7%.

Workforce participation was similar to Greater Melbourne's 71.0%. Census data shows 21.1% of residents worked from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Employment is concentrated in construction, healthcare & social assistance, and retail trade, with a strong specialization in construction at twice the regional level. Professional & technical jobs are under-represented at 5.2%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 10.1%.

Local employment opportunities appear limited based on resident vs working population counts. From September 2024 to September 2025, employment increased by 4.6% while labour force rose by 4.7%, keeping unemployment stable at 3.0%. In Greater Melbourne, employment grew by 3.0%, labour force expanded by 3.3%, and unemployment rose to 4.7%. Jobs and Skills Australia's May-25 forecasts suggest national employment will grow by 6.6% in five years and 13.7% in ten years. Applying these projections to Bunyip Garfield's industry mix indicates local employment should increase by 5.9% over five years and 12.3% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ending June 2023 shows that Bunyip - Garfield SA2 has a median income of $53,265 and an average income of $65,875. This is lower than the national averages of $61,946 (median) and $73,149 (average). In Greater Melbourne, the median income was $57,688 with an average of $75,164 in the same period. Based on a Wage Price Index growth rate of 8.25% since financial year ending June 2023, estimated incomes for September 2025 would be approximately $57,659 (median) and $71,310 (average). According to the 2021 Census, Bunyip - Garfield SA2's household income ranks at the 59th percentile ($1,897 weekly), with personal income at the 42nd percentile. The earnings profile indicates that 34.7% of locals (3,617 people) earn between $1,500 and $2,999 per week, which is similar to the regional pattern where 32.8% fall into this income range. After housing expenses, 86.1% of income remains for other expenses. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Bunyip - Garfield is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Bunyip-Garfield's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 97.9% houses and 2.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Bunyip-Garfield was at 37.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 49.9% and rented ones at 12.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,950, below Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. The median weekly rent was $311, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Bunyip-Garfield's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially lower at $375.

Bunyip - Garfield features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households make up 80.0% of all households, including 39.5% couples with children, 31.0% couples without children, and 8.5% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 20.0%, with lone person households at 18.5% and group households comprising 1.7%. The median household size is 2.8 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Educational attainment in Bunyip - Garfield aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 16.7%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 12.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.4%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 43.6% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.3%) and certificates (33.3%). Educational participation is high, with 30.8% currently enrolled in formal education, including primary (11.5%), secondary (9.8%), and tertiary (3.3%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 30.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.5% in primary education, 9.8% in secondary education, and 3.3% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The Bunyip - Garfield area has 13 operational public transport stops offering a mix of train services. These are served by 7 different routes, collectively facilitating 317 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is limited, with residents typically residing 1003 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to its residential nature. Cars remain the primary mode of transport at 92%. On average, there are 2.2 vehicles per dwelling, exceeding the regional norm.

According to the 2021 Census, 21.1% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. Across all routes, service frequency averages 45 trips daily, equating to approximately 24 weekly trips per individual stop.

Bunyip - Garfield's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with a fairly standard level of common health conditions seen across both young and old age cohorts

Health data indicates relatively positive outcomes for Bunyip - Garfield residents. AreaSearch's analysis of mortality rates and health conditions shows results broadly in line with national benchmarks, with a fairly standard level of common health conditions seen across both young and old age cohorts.

The rate of private health cover is slightly lagging at approximately 52% of the total population (~5,411 people), compared to 56.7% across Greater Melbourne. The most common medical conditions in the area were found to be asthma and arthritis, impacting 8.6 and 8.2% of residents respectively, while 68.3% declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among the working-age population are broadly typical. The area has 20.9% of residents aged 65 and over (2,184 people), which is higher than the 15.1% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, with national rankings even higher than the general population.

Bunyip - Garfield is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Bunyip-Garfield, surveyed in August 2016, showed low cultural diversity with 89.7% Australian-born citizens, 89.2% born in Australia, and 96.9% speaking English only at home. Christianity dominated, at 50.3%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 43.0%. Ancestry-wise, Australians topped at 34.4%, English at 30.6%, and Irish at 9.3%.

Notably, Dutch (3.5%), Maltese (0.5%), and Italian (3.0%) were overrepresented compared to regional averages of 1.2%, 1.1%, and 5.2% respectively.

Bunyip - Garfield's population is slightly older than the national pattern

The median age in Bunyip - Garfield is 40 years, which is slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and Australia's national average of 38 years. In comparison with the Greater Melbourne average, the 65-74 age group is notably over-represented at 11.7% locally, while the 25-34 year-olds are under-represented at 9.4%. Between 2021 and present, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 5.4% to 7.1%, and the 65 to 74 cohort increased from 10.1% to 11.7%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 13.9% to 11.2%, and the 25 to 34 group dropped from 10.8% to 9.4%. Demographic projections suggest that Bunyip - Garfield's age profile will significantly evolve by 2041. The 65 to 74 age cohort is projected to grow by 426 people (35%), increasing from 1,224 to 1,651. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups are expected to account for 69% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. Meanwhile, the 0 to 4 cohort is projected to decrease by 26 people.