Pakenham - North West

Pakenham - North West lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Pakenham - North West's population is approximately 10,539 as of November 2025. This figure represents an increase of 3,060 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 7,479. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 9,658 in June 2024 and an additional 819 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 427 persons per square kilometer, indicating significant space per person and potential room for further development. Pakenham - North West's growth rate of 40.9% since the 2021 census exceeds both the national average (8.9%) and state averages, positioning it as a growth leader in the region. Interstate migration contributed approximately 68.7% of overall population gains during recent periods, with all drivers including natural growth and overseas migration being positive factors.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 using 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future projections anticipate exceptional growth, placing Pakenham - North West in the top 10 percent of statistical areas nationally, with an expected increase of 10,630 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a total increase of 92.5% over the 17-year period.

The level of residential development activity in Pakenham - North West was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Pakenham North West has recorded approximately 264 residential properties granted approval each year. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, 1323 homes were approved, with a further 90 approved in FY26 so far. On average, around 2.3 new residents have been gained per dwelling built annually over these five financial years, indicating solid demand that supports property values.

New homes are being constructed at an average expected cost of $321,000. This financial year has seen $694,000 in commercial approvals, suggesting a predominantly residential focus. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Pakenham North West has 226% more construction activity per person, offering greater choice for buyers and reflecting strong developer confidence in the location. New development primarily consists of detached houses (96%) and townhouses or apartments (4%), maintaining the area's traditional low-density character with a focus on family homes. With around 37 people per dwelling approval, Pakenham North West exhibits characteristics of a growth area.

According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, the area is expected to grow by approximately 9749 residents by 2041. Given current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers and potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Pakenham - North West has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 30thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 12 projects likely to impact the area. Notable ones are Maple Grove Estate, Arbor Officer, Officer Residential Development-Olio, and Pakenham Community Hospital. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Pakenham - North West exceeds national averages across key labour market indicators

Pakenham - North West has a skilled workforce with the construction sector being prominent. The unemployment rate in September 2025 was 4.1%, lower than Greater Melbourne's 4.7%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 5.5%. As of September 2025, 5,328 residents were employed, with a workforce participation rate of 71.1%, higher than Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Key industries include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. The area specializes in construction employment, with an employment share 1.4 times the regional level.

However, professional & technical services employ only 5.5% of local workers, below Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited, as indicated by Census data. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 5.5%, while the labour force grew by 6.2%, raising the unemployment rate by 0.6 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne had employment growth of 3.0% and a 0.3 percentage point rise in unemployment. State-level data to 25-Nov-25 shows Victoria's employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%. National forecasts from May-25 project overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Pakenham - North West's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.3% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released on June 30, 2022, Pakenham - North West SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $53,120 with an average level of $60,090. This is below the national average and compares to levels of $54,892 and $73,761 across Greater Melbourne respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $59,579 (median) and $67,306 (average) as of September 2025. From the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes in Pakenham - North West cluster around the 60th percentile nationally. Distribution data shows that 41.4% of residents (4,363 people) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 income bracket, aligning with the surrounding region where this cohort represents 32.8%. High housing costs consume 18.6% of income, leaving disposable income at the 55th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Pakenham - North West is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

The dwelling structure in Pakenham - North West, as per the latest Census, consisted of 95.3% houses and 4.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's 91.1% houses and 8.9% other dwellings. The home ownership level in Pakenham - North West was 16.5%, with the rest of dwellings either mortgaged (53.9%) or rented (29.5%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,950, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $1,866. The median weekly rent figure was recorded at $366, compared to Melbourne metro's $361. Nationally, Pakenham - North West's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Pakenham - North West features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households compose 81.5% of all households, including 42.3% couples with children, 24.9% couples without children, and 13.4% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 18.5%, with lone person households at 16.0% and group households comprising 2.4%. The median household size is 2.9 people, larger than Greater Melbourne's average of 2.8.

The educational profile of Pakenham - North West exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 24.5%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 17.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.6%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 39.0% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 13.1% and certificates at 25.9%. Educational participation is high, with 32.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 12.6% in primary education, 7.0% in secondary education, and 3.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Pakenham - North West shows that there are nine active transport stops currently operating. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, with three individual routes providing service to the area. Together, these routes facilitate 456 weekly passenger trips.

The accessibility of transport is rated as moderate, with residents typically located approximately 578 meters from their nearest transport stop. On average, there are about 65 trips per day across all routes, resulting in around 50 weekly trips per individual stop.

Pakenham - North West's residents are extremely healthy with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Analysis shows strong health performance in Pakenham - North West. Prevalence of common conditions is low but higher among older at-risk cohorts compared to national averages. Private health cover rate is approximately 50% (~5,216 people), lower than Greater Melbourne's 51.6% and the national average of 55.3%.

Common medical conditions are asthma (8.7%) and mental health issues (8.0%), with 73.9% reporting no ailments, compared to 70.3% in Greater Melbourne. The area has 10.3% residents aged 65 and over (1,082 people), lower than Greater Melbourne's 13.7%. Health outcomes among seniors require more attention.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Pakenham - North West was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Pakenham-North West, surveyed in June 2016, showed higher cultural diversity than most local areas, with 29.8% of residents born overseas and 26.9% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 40.4%. The 'Other' religious category comprised 4.7%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 3.2%.

Ancestry-wise, English (23.8%), Australian (23.4%), and Other (16.1%) were the top groups. Notable differences existed in Sri Lankan (1.6% vs regional 1.1%), Dutch (1.8% vs 2.6%), and Indian (4.8% vs 3.2%) representations.

Pakenham - North West hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Pakenham-North West has a median age of 32 years, which is notably younger than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and Australia's national average of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Pakenham-North West has a higher proportion of residents aged 5-14 (16.4%) but fewer residents aged 55-64 (7.4%). Post-2021 Census data indicates that the 35-44 age group increased from 16.8% to 17.9%, while the 25-34 cohort declined from 19.0% to 17.5%. The 0-4 age group also decreased from 9.8% to 8.5%. By 2041, demographic modeling projects significant changes in Pakenham-North West's age profile, with the strongest growth expected in the 45-54 cohort, which is projected to increase by 135%, adding 1,501 residents to reach a total of 2,618.