Pakenham - North West
Statistical Area - sa2

Pakenham - North West lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Pakenham - North West's population is around 10,539 as of November 2025. This shows an increase of 3,060 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 7,479. The change is inferred from ABS estimates: 9,658 in June 2024 and an additional 819 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 427 persons per square kilometer. Pakenham - North West's growth rate of 40.9% since the 2021 census exceeds national (8.9%) and state averages, marking it as a growth leader. Population growth was primarily driven by interstate migration, contributing approximately 68.7% of overall population gains.

All drivers including natural growth and overseas migration were positive factors. AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future projections anticipate exceptional growth, placing the area in the top 10 percent nationally. By 2041, the population is expected to increase by 10,630 persons, a total increase of 92.5% over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Pakenham - North West was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Pakenham - North West has recorded approximately 264 residential properties granted approval annually. Between financial years FY-21 and FY-25, a total of 1,323 homes were approved, with an additional 71 approved in FY-26 to date. On average, each dwelling built over the past five financial years has attracted 2.3 new residents per year, indicating strong demand that supports property values.

The average expected construction cost value for new homes is $321,000. This financial year, there have been $694,000 in commercial approvals, suggesting a predominant focus on residential development. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Pakenham - North West has 226.0% more construction activity per person, offering greater choice for buyers and reflecting strong developer confidence in the location. New development consists of 96.0% detached houses and 4.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's traditional low-density character with a focus on family homes. With around 37 people per dwelling approval, Pakenham - North West exhibits characteristics of a growth area.

By 2041, it is projected to grow by approximately 9,749 residents. Given current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Pakenham - North West has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 12 projects likely to impact the area. Notable projects include Maple Grove Estate, Arbor Officer, Officer Residential Development - Olio, and Pakenham Community Hospital. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Pakenham - North West has been broadly consistent with national averages

Pakenham - North West has a skilled workforce with significant representation in the construction sector. The unemployment rate was 4.3% as of June 2025, which is below Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 3.6%. As of June 2025, 4,951 residents were in work and workforce participation was 71.1%, higher than Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Key industries for employment among residents are health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. The area has a high specialization in construction, with an employment share of 1.4 times the regional level.

However, professional & technical services employ only 5.5% of local workers, lower than Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited, as indicated by Census data comparing working population to resident population. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 3.6%, while the labour force grew by 4.4%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate of 0.7 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 3.5% and a 0.5 percentage point rise in unemployment rate. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years for national employment. Applying these projections to Pakenham - North West's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.3% over five years and 13.3% over ten years, based on simple weighting extrapolation.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2022, Pakenham - North West had a median income among taxpayers of $53,120. The average income stood at $60,009 in this period. Both figures were below the national averages of $54,892 and $73,761 respectively for Greater Melbourne. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, current estimates project median income to be approximately $59,579 and average income to be around $67,306 as of September 2025. The 2021 Census data indicates that household, family, and personal incomes in Pakenham - North West cluster around the 61st percentile nationally. Income distribution shows that the majority of residents (41.4%, or 4,363 people) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket, which aligns with the surrounding region where this cohort represents 32.8%. High housing costs consume 18.6% of income in Pakenham - North West, yet strong earnings place disposable income at the 56th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Pakenham - North West is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Pakenham - North West's dwellings were 95.3% houses and 4.7% other dwellings in the latest Census, compared to Melbourne metro's 91.1% houses and 8.9% other dwellings. Home ownership was at 16.5%, with mortgages at 53.9% and rentals at 29.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,950, higher than Melbourne metro's $1,866. Median weekly rent was $366, compared to Melbourne metro's $361. Nationally, Pakenham - North West's mortgage repayments were above the Australian average of $1,863 and rents below the national figure of $375.

Pakenham - North West features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 81.5% of all households, including 42.3% couples with children, 24.9% couples without children, and 13.4% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 18.5%, with lone person households at 16.0% and group households comprising 2.4%. The median household size is 2.9 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.8.

Pakenham - North West shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area faces educational challenges with university qualification rates at 24.5%, significantly below the Greater Melbourne average of 37.0%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 17.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.6%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 39.0% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (13.1%) and certificates (25.9%).

Educational participation is high, with 32.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 12.6% in primary education, 7.0% in secondary education, and 3.8% pursuing tertiary education. Pakenham - North West's 5 schools have a combined enrollment reaching 3,555 students as of the latest data available. The area demonstrates above-average socio-educational conditions with an ICSEA score of 1065. The educational mix includes 1 primary, 1 secondary, and 3 K-12 schools. As of 2021, the area functions as an education hub with 33.9 school places per 100 residents – significantly above the regional average of 16.5 – attracting students from surrounding communities. Note: where schools show 'n/a' for enrolments, please refer to parent campus.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Pakenham - North West has nine active public transport stops operating within its boundaries. All of these stops serve buses, with three distinct routes in operation. These routes collectively facilitate 456 weekly passenger trips.

The accessibility of public transport in the area is rated as moderate, with residents typically residing 578 meters away from the nearest stop. Across all routes, service frequency averages 65 trips per day, translating to approximately 50 weekly trips per individual stop.

Pakenham - North West's residents are extremely healthy with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics indicates strong performance across Pakenham - North West, with younger cohorts showing very low prevalence of common health conditions. Private health cover stands at approximately 50% of the total population (~5,216 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 51.6% and the national average of 55.3%. The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma (8.7%) and mental health issues (8.0%), while 73.9% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 70.3% in Greater Melbourne.

As of June 20XX, 10.3% of residents are aged 65 and over (1,082 people), lower than Greater Melbourne's 13.7%. Health outcomes among seniors require more attention than the broader population.

Pakenham - North West was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Pakenham-North West, as per data from the Australian Census 2016, shows higher cultural diversity compared to most local areas. It has a population where 29.8% were born overseas and 26.9% speak languages other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Pakenham-North West, with 40.4% of its population identifying as Christian.

However, the category 'Other' religions comprises 4.7%, which is higher than the Greater Melbourne average of 3.2%. In terms of ancestry, the top three groups are English (23.8%), Australian (23.4%), and Other (16.1%). Some ethnic groups show notable variations: Sri Lankan at 1.6% compared to 1.1% regionally, Dutch at 1.8% versus 2.6%, and Hungarian at 0.4% matching the regional figure of 0.4%.

Pakenham - North West hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Pakenham-North West has a median age of 32 years, which is younger than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and significantly lower than Australia's national average of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Pakenham-North West has a higher proportion of residents aged 5-14 (16.4%) but fewer residents aged 55-64 (7.4%). According to post-2021 Census data, the age group of 35 to 44 has grown from 16.8% to 17.9%, while the 25 to 34 cohort has declined from 19.0% to 17.5%. The 0 to 4 age group has also decreased, from 9.8% to 8.5%. Demographic modeling projects significant changes in Pakenham-North West's age profile by 2041, with the strongest growth expected in the 45 to 54 cohort, which is projected to increase by 135%, adding 1,501 residents to reach a total of 2,618.