Pakenham - North West
Statistical Area - sa2

Pakenham - North West lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Pakenham - North West's population was around 10,478 as of Aug 2025. This showed an increase of 2,999 people from the 2021 Census figure of 7,479. The growth was inferred from ABS' June 2024 estimate of 9,658 and validated new addresses since the census date. This resulted in a population density of 424 persons per square kilometer. Pakenham - North West's 40.1% population growth between 2021 and Aug 2025 exceeded both national (8.6%) and state averages, indicating significant growth. Interstate migration contributed approximately 68.7% to this growth.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by these data, AreaSearch employs VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. Future projections indicate exceptional growth, with Pakenham - North West expected to increase by 10,630 persons to 2041, marking a 93.6% total increase over these 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Pakenham - North West was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Pakenham - North West has recorded approximately 264 residential properties granted approval annually. Development approval data, produced by the ABS on a financial year basis, shows 1,323 homes approved over the past five financial years from FY-2021 to FY-2025, with an additional 33 approved in FY-2026 so far. On average, 2.3 people have moved to the area per new home constructed over these five years, indicating strong demand that supports property values. New homes are being built at an average construction cost of $450,000, aligning with regional trends.

This financial year has seen $694,000 in commercial approvals registered, suggesting minimal commercial development activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Pakenham - North West records 226.0% more development activity per person, offering buyers greater choice and reflecting strong developer confidence in the area. New development consists of 96.0% detached houses and 4.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's traditional low density character focused on family homes. The location has approximately 37 people per dwelling approval, indicating an expanding market. By 2041, Pakenham - North West is projected to grow by 9,810 residents.

At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Pakenham - North West has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 12 projects likely to impact this region. Notable ones are Maple Grove Estate, Arbor Officer, Officer Residential Development-Olio, and Arcadia Estate. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

The labour market in Pakenham - North West demonstrates typical performance when compared to similar areas across Australia

Pakenham - North West has a skilled workforce with the construction sector prominently represented. Its unemployment rate was 4.3% in June 2025, below Greater Melbourne's 4.6%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 3.6%. As of June 2025, 4,951 residents were employed with a workforce participation rate of 71.1%, higher than Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Dominant employment sectors include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Construction is particularly specialized with an employment share of 1.4 times the regional level, while professional & technical services have limited presence at 5.5% compared to the regional 10.1%.

Employment opportunities locally appear limited based on Census data analysis. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment increased by 3.6%, labour force by 4.4%, raising unemployment rate by 0.7 percentage points. In Greater Melbourne, employment grew by 3.5% with a 0.5 percentage point rise in unemployment. State-wide in Victoria as of Sep-25, employment grew by 1.08% year-on-year adding 39,880 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%. National employment forecasts from May 2025 project a growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Pakenham - North West's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.3%% over five years and 13.3% over ten years, though this is an illustrative extrapolation not accounting for localized population projections.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

Pakenham - North West has a median taxpayer income of $53,120 and an average income of $60,090 based on the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2022. This is lower than the national average, with Greater Melbourne having a median income of $54,892 and an average income of $73,761. As of March 2025, estimated incomes are approximately $58,490 (median) and $66,076 (average), accounting for Wage Price Index growth of 10.11% since financial year 2022. According to Census 2021 income data, household, family, and personal incomes in Pakenham - North West cluster around the 61st percentile nationally. The $1,500 - 2,999 income bracket dominates with 41.4% of residents (4,337 people). High housing costs consume 18.6% of income, leaving disposable income at the 56th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Pakenham - North West is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

The dwelling structure in Pakenham - North West, as per the latest Census, consisted of 95.3% houses and 4.7% other dwellings such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. In comparison, Melbourne metro had 91.1% houses and 8.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Pakenham - North West stood at 16.5%, with the rest of dwellings either mortgaged (53.9%) or rented (29.5%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,950, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $1,866. The median weekly rent figure was recorded at $366, slightly higher than Melbourne metro's $361. Nationally, Pakenham - North West's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were lower than the national figure of $375.

Pakenham - North West features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 81.5% of all households, including 42.3% couples with children, 24.9% couples without children, and 13.4% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 18.5%, with lone person households at 16.0% and group households comprising 2.4% of the total. The median household size is 2.9 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.8.

Pakenham - North West shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates at 24.5%, significantly lower than the Greater Melbourne average of 37.0%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 17.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.6%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 39.0% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas (13.1%) and certificates (25.9%).

Educational participation is high, with 32.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 12.6% in primary, 7.0% in secondary, and 3.8% pursuing tertiary education. Pakenham - North West's 5 schools have a combined enrollment of 3,555 students as of the most recent data. The area demonstrates above-average socio-educational conditions (ICSEA: 1065). The educational mix includes 1 primary, 1 secondary, and 3 K-12 schools. Pakenham - North West functions as an education hub with 33.9 school places per 100 residents, significantly above the regional average of 16.5, attracting students from surrounding communities. Note: where schools show 'n/a' for enrolments, please refer to parent campus.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows nine active stops operating in Pakenham - North West, all serving buses. These stops are served by three routes, offering a total of 456 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is moderate, with residents typically located 578 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 65 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 50 weekly trips per stop.

Pakenham - North West's residents are extremely healthy with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Pakenham - North West, with younger cohorts seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions. Private health cover rate was approximately 50% (around 5,186 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 51.6%. Nationally, the average is 55.3%.

Asthma and mental health issues were the most common conditions, affecting 8.7% and 8.0% of residents respectively. 73.9% reported being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to Greater Melbourne's 70.3%. The area has 10.3% of residents aged 65 and over (1,076 people), lower than Greater Melbourne's 13.7%. Health outcomes among seniors require more attention than the broader population.

Pakenham - North West was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Pakenham-North West had a higher cultural diversity compared to most local areas, with 29.8% of its population born overseas and 26.9% speaking a language other than English at home, as per data from 25th June 2016. Christianity was the predominant religion in Pakenham-North West, accounting for 40.4% of its residents. Notably, the 'Other' religious category comprised 4.7% of the population, higher than the 3.2% average across Greater Melbourne.

Regarding ancestry, the top three groups were English (23.8%), Australian (23.4%), and Other (16.1%). Some ethnic groups showed significant differences: Sri Lankan residents made up 1.6%, Dutch residents 1.8%, and Hungarian residents 0.4% of Pakenham-North West's population, compared to regional averages of 1.1%, 2.6%, and 0.4%, respectively.

Pakenham - North West hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Pakenham-North West's median age is 32 years, which is notably younger than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and significantly lower than Australia's national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Pakenham-North West has a higher proportion of residents aged 5-14 (16.4%) but fewer residents aged 55-64 (7.4%). According to post-2021 Census data, the age group of 35-44 has increased from 16.8% to 17.9%, while the 25-34 cohort has decreased from 19.0% to 17.5% and the 0-4 group has dropped from 9.8% to 8.5%. By 2041, demographic modeling projects significant changes in Pakenham-North West's age profile, with the strongest growth expected in the 45-54 cohort, which is projected to increase by 136%, adding 1,508 residents to reach a total of 2,618.