Emerald (Vic.)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Emerald reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Nov 2025, the Emerald (Vic.) statistical area (Lv2) has an estimated population of around 5,858 people, reflecting a decrease of 32 individuals since the 2021 Census. The resident population estimate by AreaSearch is 5,825, based on examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and validation of 22 new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of approximately 116 persons per square kilometer. Natural growth contributed roughly 56% of overall population gains during recent periods, with AreaSearch adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 using 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels.

Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, the Emerald (Vic.) (SA2) is expected to increase by approximately 487 persons, reflecting an overall increase of around 8.6% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Emerald according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Emerald has experienced around 6 dwelling approvals per year based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers. Between FY21 and FY25, approximately 34 homes were approved, with another 3 so far in FY26. Each dwelling built attracted an average of 3.1 people over the past five financial years.

The supply lagged demand significantly, leading to heightened buyer competition and pricing pressures. Developers focused on premium properties, constructing new dwellings at an average cost of $847,000. In FY26, $10.8 million in commercial approvals have been registered. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Emerald's building activity was 89.0% below the regional average per person as of recent periods. This scarcity of new dwellings strengthened demand and prices for existing properties. New development consisted of 80.0% standalone homes and 20.0% townhouses or apartments, preserving the area's low density nature.

This marked a significant departure from current housing patterns (98.0% houses), suggesting diminishing developable land availability and evolving lifestyle preferences. The estimated population per dwelling approval was 689 people in the area. Future projections show Emerald adding 504 residents by 2041, potentially increasing competition among buyers if current development rates continue.

Emerald has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

No local infrastructure projects have been identified by AreaSearch as likely to impact the area. Key projects include the Dandenong Ranges Environmental Protection Program, South East Melbourne Recycled Water Supply Infrastructure Upgrades, Yarra Ranges Council Drainage Infrastructure Program, and Additional VLocity Trains.

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Employment conditions in Emerald rank among the top 10% of areas assessed nationally

Emerald's workforce is skilled with notable representation in construction. Unemployment rate was 2.0% in the past year, with estimated employment growth of 4.2%.

As of September 2025, 3,294 residents are employed at an unemployment rate of 2.7%, below Greater Melbourne's 4.7%. Workforce participation is similar to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Leading industries include construction, health care & social assistance, and education & training. Construction employment share is 1.7 times the regional level.

Professional & technical services are under-represented at 6.7% compared to Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. Limited local employment opportunities are indicated by Census working population vs resident population count. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 4.2%, labour force by 4.4%, raising unemployment rate by 0.2 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment rise by 3.0% and unemployment increase by 0.3 percentage points. State-wide in Victoria, as of 25-November-25, employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%. National employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Emerald's industry mix suggests local employment could grow by 6.2% in five years and 13.0% in ten years.

The economic profile demonstrates above-average performance, with income metrics exceeding national benchmarks based on AreaSearch comparative assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows that income in Emerald is higher than average nationally. The median income is $52,831 and the average income stands at $71,611. This contrasts with Greater Melbourne's figures of a median income of $57,688 and an average income of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $57,190 (median) and $77,519 (average) as of September 2025. Census 2021 income data shows that household, family, and personal incomes in Emerald cluster around the 66th percentile nationally. Distribution data reveals that the largest segment comprises 34.7% earning $1,500 - 2,999 weekly (2,032 residents), mirroring the metropolitan region where 32.8% occupy this bracket. After housing costs, residents retain 87.1% of income, reflecting strong purchasing power and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Emerald is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Emerald's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 98.3% houses and 1.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's 91.1% houses and 8.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Emerald stood at 39.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 52.1% and rented dwellings at 8.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,000, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $1,866. Median weekly rent in Emerald was $400, compared to Melbourne metro's $361. Nationally, Emerald's mortgage repayments exceeded the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were higher than the national figure of $375.

Emerald features high concentrations of family households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 80.4% of all households, including 40.9% couples with children, 30.8% couples without children, and 8.4% single parent families. Non-family households account for 19.6%, comprising 17.6% lone person households and 1.6% group households. The median household size is 2.8 people, which aligns with the Greater Melbourne average.

The educational profile of Emerald exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 26.6%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 17.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.0%) and graduate diplomas (4.1%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 38.4% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (13.1%) and certificates (25.3%). Educational participation is high at 29.1%, comprising primary education (10.1%), secondary education (8.6%), and tertiary education (3.9%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 29.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.1% in primary education, 8.6% in secondary education, and 3.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Emerald has 25 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by eight different routes that together offer 606 weekly passenger trips. Residents' access to transport is rated as limited, with an average distance of 746 meters to the nearest stop.

The service frequency across all routes is 86 trips per day, which equates to approximately 24 weekly trips per individual stop.

Emerald's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with a fairly standard level of common health conditions seen across both young and old age cohorts

Emerald's health data shows positive results, with common conditions evenly distributed across age groups. Private health cover stands at approximately 55%, or about 3,228 people, compared to Greater Melbourne's 51.8%.

The most prevalent conditions are arthritis (affecting 8.9% of residents) and mental health issues (8.4%), while 67.7% report no medical ailments, slightly lower than Greater Melbourne's 70.3%. Residents aged 65 and over comprise 21.5%, or 1,259 people, higher than Greater Melbourne's 13.7%. Senior health outcomes are notably strong, outperforming the general population in various metrics.

Emerald ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Emerald's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 82.9% of its population born in Australia, 91.2% being citizens, and 94.6% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the main religion in Emerald, comprising 34.4% of people there. Judaism's representation was notably higher than Greater Melbourne's average, making up 0.1% of Emerald's population.

The top three ancestry groups were English (32.7%), Australian (26.5%), and Scottish (8.9%). Dutch (3.4%) and Welsh (0.9%) were overrepresented compared to regional averages, while Hungarian representation was similar at 0.4%.

Emerald hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

The median age in Emerald is 43 years, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and exceeds the national average of 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 65-74 are particularly prominent, making up 12.5% of the population, while those aged 25-34 comprise only 6.6%. Between 2021 and present, the 75 to 84 age group has increased from 5.1% to 6.9% of the population. Conversely, the 25 to 34 age group has decreased from 8.9% to 6.6%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Emerald's age structure. The 75 to 84 age cohort is projected to rise substantially, increasing by 241 people (60%) from 404 to 646. Notably, the combined age groups of 65 and above are expected to account for 76% of total population growth, reflecting Emerald's aging demographic profile. Meanwhile, the 25 to 34 and 0 to 4 age cohorts are projected to experience population declines.