Emerald (Vic.)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Emerald reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Nov 2025, the estimated population of the suburb of Emerald (Vic.) is around 5,850, a decrease of 40 people from the 2021 Census figure of 5,890. This decrease was inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 5,825 based on ABS ERP data released in June 2024 and validation of 22 new addresses since the Census date. The population density is approximately 116 persons per square kilometer. Natural growth contributed about 56% of overall population gains recently. AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022.

For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusting using weighted aggregation to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas until 2041. By 2041, the suburb is projected to increase by 514 persons, reflecting a 9.2% total increase over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Emerald according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Emerald has received approximately five dwelling approvals annually based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, around 26 homes were approved, with two more approved in FY-26 so far.

Each year, an average of four people have moved to Emerald for each dwelling built during these years. This substantial lag between supply and demand has led to heightened buyer competition and pricing pressures. Developers focus on the premium segment, constructing new properties at an average cost of $847,000. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Emerald's construction is 92.0% below the regional average per person. This constrained new construction typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing homes, though building activity has increased recently.

However, it remains below the national average, indicating possible planning constraints. New development consists of 86.0% detached houses and 14.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining Emerald's low-density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers. The estimated population per dwelling approval is 836 people, reflecting its quiet development environment. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Emerald is projected to grow by 539 residents by 2041. If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price growth.

Emerald has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

No infrastructure projects have been identified by AreaSearch as likely to impact the area. Key projects include the Dandenong Ranges Environmental Protection Program, South East Melbourne Recycled Water Supply Infrastructure Upgrades, Yarra Ranges Council Drainage Infrastructure Program, and Additional VLocity Trains.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Emerald rank among the top 10% of areas assessed nationally

Emerald's workforce is skilled with notable representation in the construction sector. Its unemployment rate was 2.0% in June 2025, a 4.1% increase from the previous year according to AreaSearch data aggregation.

As of June 2025, 3,360 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 2.6% lower than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation in Emerald is similar to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Dominant employment sectors include construction, health care & social assistance, and education & training. Construction has a particularly high representation with an employment share 1.7 times the regional level.

Conversely, professional & technical services show lower representation at 6.7% compared to the regional average of 10.1%. Employment opportunities locally appear limited based on Census working population vs resident population comparison. Over a 12-month period ending June 2025, employment increased by 4.1% alongside labour force growth of 4.4%, causing unemployment rate to rise by 0.3 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 3.5% and labour force growth of 4.0%, with a 0.5 percentage point rise in unemployment rate. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 suggest potential future demand within Emerald. These projections estimate national employment expansion by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying growth rates between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Emerald's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.2% over five years and 13.0% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Emerald had a median taxpayer income of $52,831 and an average of $71,611 based on postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year 2022. This is higher than national averages, contrasting with Greater Melbourne's median income of $54,892 and average income of $73,761. By September 2025, estimates suggest a median income of approximately $59,255 and an average of $80,319, considering a 12.16% growth in wages since the financial year 2022. According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Emerald cluster around the 66th percentile nationally. The largest income segment consists of 34.7% earning $1,500 - 2,999 weekly, with 2,029 residents falling into this category. After housing costs, residents retain 87.1% of their income, indicating strong purchasing power. Emerald's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Emerald is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Emerald, as per the latest Census evaluation, 98.3% of dwellings were houses with the remaining 1.7% being other types such as semi-detached units and apartments. This is in contrast to Melbourne metro's dwelling structure which was 91.1% houses and 8.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Emerald stood at 39.7%, with mortgaged properties at 52.1% and rented ones at 8.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,000, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $1,866. The median weekly rent figure in Emerald was $400, compared to Melbourne metro's $361. Nationally, Emerald's mortgage repayments exceeded the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were higher than the national figure of $375.

Emerald features high concentrations of family households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 80.4% of all households, including 40.9% couples with children, 30.8% couples without children, and 8.4% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 19.6%, with lone person households at 17.6% and group households comprising 1.6%. The median household size is 2.8 people, aligning with the Greater Melbourne average.

The educational profile of Emerald exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 26.6%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common (17.5%), followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.0%) and graduate diplomas (4.1%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 38.4% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (13.1%) and certificates (25.3%). Educational participation is high at 29.1%, with 10.1% in primary education, 8.6% in secondary education, and 3.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Emerald's three schools have a combined enrollment of 1,284 students, serving typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1046) with balanced educational opportunities. There are two primary and one secondary school, providing age-specific education. School capacity exceeds residential needs, with 21.9 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 16.4, indicating Emerald serves as an educational center for the broader region.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Emerald has 25 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by eight different routes that together facilitate 669 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these services is limited, with residents on average located 746 meters from the nearest stop.

The service frequency across all routes averages 95 trips per day, equating to approximately 26 weekly trips per individual stop.

Emerald's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with a fairly standard level of common health conditions seen across both young and old age cohorts

Emerald's health data shows positive outcomes for residents with common health conditions across all age groups. Private health cover stands at approximately 55%, or about 3,224 people, compared to 51.6% in Greater Melbourne.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 8.9% and 8.4% of residents respectively. About 67.7% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 70.3% in Greater Melbourne. Emerald has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 21.5%, or 1,257 people, compared to 13.7% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors are notably strong, outperforming the general population in health metrics.

Emerald ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Emerald's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 82.9% of its population born in Australia, 91.2% being citizens, and 94.6% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the main religion in Emerald, comprising 34.4% of people there, compared to the Greater Melbourne figure of 0.1%. The ancestry findings show that English is the most represented group in Emerald, at 32.7%, which is higher than the regional average of 26.9%.

Australian ancestry follows with 26.5%, and Scottish with 8.9%. Notably, Dutch ancestry is overrepresented in Emerald at 3.4% compared to the regional figure of 2.6%, Welsh at 0.9% versus 0.5%, and Hungarian at 0.4% matching regionally.

Emerald hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

The median age in Emerald is 43 years, considerably higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and substantially exceeding the national average of 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 65-74 years make up 12.5% of the population, while those aged 25-34 years comprise only 6.6%. Between 2021 and present, the proportion of those aged 75-84 has grown from 5.1% to 6.9%, while the 25-34 age group has declined from 8.9% to 6.6%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Emerald's age structure. The 75-84 age cohort is projected to rise substantially, increasing by 243 people (60%) from 403 to 647. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups are expected to account for 73% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. Conversely, the 0-4 and 5-14 age cohorts are projected to experience population declines.