Gembrook

Population growth drivers in Gembrook are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of Nov 2025, the estimated population for the Gembrook statistical area (Lv2) is around 2,623. This figure reflects an increase of 64 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,559. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 2,613 in Jun 2024, following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS and validation of an additional 20 new addresses since the Census date. This level of population results in a density ratio of 13.0 persons per square kilometer. Natural growth contributed approximately 56% of overall population gains during recent periods for this area.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in Jun 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the Gembrook (SA2) is expected to grow by 163 persons to 2041, reflecting an increase of approximately 6.4% in total over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Gembrook, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers for Gembrook indicates around 12 dwellings receiving development approval annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 60 homes. As of FY-26, two approvals have been recorded. The average population growth associated with new construction in the area is approximately 0.5 people per year for each dwelling built between FY-21 and FY-25. This suggests that new construction is matching or outpacing demand, offering buyers more options while enabling population growth.

The average expected construction cost value of new dwellings is $847,000, indicating a focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties. In this financial year, $32.3 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, suggesting robust local business investment. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Gembrook has significantly less development activity, 57.0% below the regional average per person. This constrained new construction typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings. Recent construction comprises 82.0% detached dwellings and 18.0% attached dwellings, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space.

This marks a significant departure from existing housing patterns, which are currently 98.0% houses, suggesting diminishing developable land availability and responding to evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs. The estimated population count per dwelling approval is 437 people, reflecting the area's quiet, low activity development environment. Population forecasts indicate Gembrook will gain 168 residents through to 2041, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Gembrook has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

No changes were made based on the rules provided as the original text does not contain any formatting elements or dates that need modification. Here's the original text: Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects and planning initiatives. In total 0 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include Additional VLocity Trains, Level Crossing Removal Project (Melbourne), Level Crossing Removal Project, and Victorian Acute Mental Health Facilities, with the below list detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

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Employment conditions in Gembrook demonstrate exceptional strength compared to most Australian markets

Gembrook's workforce is skilled with notable representation in the construction sector. Its unemployment rate was 2.3% as of September 2025, lower than Greater Melbourne's 4.7%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 4.8%. There were 1,555 residents employed while workforce participation was similar to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Dominant employment sectors include construction, healthcare & social assistance, and education & training. Construction employment levels were 1.6 times the regional average.

Professional & technical services employed only 5.8% of local workers compared to Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data. In the 12 months ending September 2025, employment increased by 4.8% while labour force grew by 5.1%, raising unemployment rate by 0.3 percentage points. This contrasts with Greater Melbourne's employment and labour force growth of 3.0% and 3.3% respectively, and a similar unemployment increase of 0.3 percentage points. Statewide in Victoria as of 25-Nov-25, employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year with an unemployment rate of 4.7%. National forecasts from May-25 project total employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Gembrook's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 12.8% over ten years, based on simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

As per AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year ending June 2023, the suburb of Gembrook's median income among taxpayers is $50,596. The average income in Gembrook for the same period is $68,581. This places Gembrook slightly above the national average. In comparison, Greater Melbourne has a median income of $57,688 and an average income of $75,164 during the same financial year. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since June 2023, current estimates for Gembrook would be approximately $54,770 (median) and $74,239 (average) as of September 2025. According to Census 2021 income data, household, family, and personal incomes in Gembrook cluster around the 58th percentile nationally. The data shows that the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket dominates with 35.7% of residents (936 people). This is consistent with broader trends across the surrounding region showing 32.8% in the same category. After housing costs, 86.1% of income remains for other expenses. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Gembrook is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Gembrook, as evaluated at the latest Census on 28 August 2016, comprised 98.1% houses and 1.9% other dwellings such as semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings. This compares to Melbourne metro's 91.1% houses and 8.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Gembrook was at 34.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 53.8% and rented dwellings at 11.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,907, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $1,866 recorded on 26 June 2017. Median weekly rent in Gembrook was $360, compared to Melbourne metro's $361. Nationally, Gembrook's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863 as of 30 June 2019, while rents were less than the national figure of $375 recorded on the same date.

Gembrook features high concentrations of family households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 79.6% of all households, including 41.3% couples with children, 28.3% couples without children, and 9.3% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 20.4%, with lone person households at 18.7% and group households making up 1.7% of the total. The median household size is 2.8 people, which matches the Greater Melbourne average.

The educational profile of Gembrook exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 22.4%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 15.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.0%) and graduate diplomas (2.5%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 42.9% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (13.2%) and certificates (29.7%). Educational participation is high, with 34.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 13.4% in primary, 10.0% in secondary, and 3.8% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Gembrook has 17 currently operating public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by eight distinct routes that together facilitate 900 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these services is rated as moderate, with residents on average situated 442 meters from the nearest stop.

On a daily basis, an average of 128 trips occur across all routes, which equates to roughly 52 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Gembrook is notably higher than the national average with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Gembrook shows superior health outcomes with both youth and elderly cohorts experiencing low prevalence of common health conditions. Approximately 54% (~1,414 people) have private health cover, higher than Greater Melbourne's 51.8%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma (8.7%) and arthritis (7.9%). 69.8% report no medical ailments, compared to 70.3% in Greater Melbourne. Gembrook has 17.9% of residents aged 65 and over (469 people), higher than Greater Melbourne's 13.7%. Senior health outcomes are notably strong, outperforming the general population in health metrics.

Gembrook is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Gembrook's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 85.7% of its population being citizens, 87.4% born in Australia, and 96.1% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the main religion in Gembrook, comprising 36.3% of people. However, Judaism is overrepresented, making up 0.1% compared to 0.1% across Greater Melbourne.

The top three ancestry groups are English (31.9%, regional average 26.9%), Australian (31.7%, regional average 26.7%), and Scottish (8.2%). Notable divergences include Dutch at 2.5% in Gembrook versus 2.6% regionally, Welsh at 0.8% versus 0.5%, and Russian at 0.4% versus 0.2%.

Gembrook's median age exceeds the national pattern

Gembrook's median age is 41 years, significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and slightly above Australia's median of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Gembrook has a notably higher proportion of the 55-64 cohort (14.5%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (7.9%). Post-2021 Census, the 75-84 age group increased from 4.9% to 6.1%, while the 25-34 cohort decreased from 10.3% to 7.9%. By 2041, Gembrook's age profile is projected to change significantly. The 75-84 cohort is expected to grow by 60%, adding 95 residents to reach 256. Residents aged 65 and older are anticipated to represent 67% of the population growth. Conversely, declines are projected for the 25-34 and 0-4 age groups.