Gembrook

Population growth drivers in Gembrook are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

By Feb 2026, Gembrook's population is estimated at around 2,629. This reflects an increase of 70 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,559. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of 2,613 residents following examination of ABS data released in June 2024, and an additional 20 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level equates to a density ratio of 13.0 persons per square kilometer. Natural growth contributed approximately 56% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted employing weighted aggregation methods. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the suburb is expected to grow by 161 persons to 2041, reflecting an increase of approximately 5.9% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Gembrook, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers in Gembrook shows around 12 residential properties granted approval each year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 60 homes. In FY-26 so far, 2 approvals have been recorded. The average new residents per year per dwelling constructed between FY-21 and FY-25 is 0.5, indicating that new supply is keeping pace with or exceeding demand. The average value of new dwellings developed is $847,000, demonstrating a focus on the premium segment.

Commercial approvals this financial year total $32.3 million, suggesting robust local business investment. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Gembrook has significantly less development activity, which typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings. Recent construction comprises 82.0% detached dwellings and 18.0% attached dwellings, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes. This marks a departure from existing housing patterns, suggesting diminishing developable land availability and responding to evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs. The estimated count of people in the area per dwelling approval is 437, reflecting its quiet development environment.

Population forecasts indicate Gembrook will gain 154 residents through to 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Gembrook has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

No infrastructure changes or major projects have been identified by AreaSearch as likely to impact the area. Key projects include Additional VLocity Trains, Level Crossing Removal Project (Melbourne), Level Crossing Removal Project, and Victorian Acute Mental Health Facilities.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Gembrook demonstrate exceptional strength compared to most Australian markets

Gembrook has a skilled workforce with the construction sector being notably represented. The unemployment rate is 2.3%, lower than Greater Melbourne's 4.7%. Employment growth in the past year was estimated at 4.6%.

As of September 2025, there are 1,544 residents employed with a workforce participation rate of 75.2%. A moderate 24.1% of residents work from home. Dominant employment sectors include construction, health care & social assistance, and education & training. Construction employment is particularly high at 1.6 times the regional average, while professional & technical employs only 5.8% of local workers compared to Greater Melbourne's 10.1%.

Many residents commute elsewhere for work. Over a 12-month period ending September 2025, employment increased by 4.6%, labour force grew by 4.8%, and unemployment rose by 0.3 percentage points. National employment forecasts from May-25 project growth of 6.6% over five years and 12.8% over ten years for Gembrook, based on its current employment mix.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch released postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023. In Gembrook, median income among taxpayers was $50,596 and average income was $68,581. This is above the national average, with Greater Melbourne's median being $57,688 and average being $75,164. Using Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes for September 2025 are approximately $54,770 (median) and $74,239 (average). According to Census 2021 income data, Gembrook's incomes cluster around the 58th percentile nationally. The $1,500 - 2,999 bracket dominates with 35.7% of residents (938 people), similar to surrounding regions at 32.8%. After housing expenses, 86.1% of income remains for other expenses. Gembrook's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Gembrook is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Gembrook, as per the latest Census data, 98.1% of dwellings were houses with the remaining 1.9% being semi-detached, apartments, or other types. This is in contrast to Melbourne metro's dwelling structure which was 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Gembrook stood at 34.6%, with mortgaged dwellings making up 53.8% and rented ones 11.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,907, lower than Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. The median weekly rent figure in Gembrook was $360, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Gembrook's median monthly mortgage repayments were higher at $1,907 compared to the Australian average of $1,863, while median weekly rents were lower at $360 versus the national figure of $375.

Gembrook features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 79.6% of all households, including 41.3% couples with children, 28.3% couples without children, and 9.3% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 20.4%, with lone person households at 18.7% and group households comprising 1.7%. The median household size is 2.8 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

The educational profile of Gembrook exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 22.4%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 15.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.0%) and graduate diplomas (2.5%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 42.9% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (13.2%) and certificates (29.7%). Educational participation is high, with 34.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, comprising 13.4% in primary, 10.0% in secondary, and 3.8% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 34.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 13.4% in primary education, 10.0% in secondary education, and 3.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis shows 17 active transport stops operating within Gembrook. These are served by a mix of buses along eight different routes, collectively providing 900 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as moderate, with residents typically located 442 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to the area's primarily residential nature. Car remains the dominant mode of transport at 95%. Vehicle ownership averages 2.2 per dwelling, which is above the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 24.1% of residents work from home, a figure that may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 128 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 52 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Gembrook is notably higher than the national average with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Gembrook shows superior health outcomes according to AreaSearch's evaluation of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Both younger and older age groups exhibit low prevalence of common health conditions.

Private health cover is relatively high at approximately 54% (~1,418 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 56.7%. The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma (8.7%) and arthritis (7.9%), with 69.8% of residents reporting no medical ailments, compared to Greater Melbourne's 72.6%. Health outcomes among working-age individuals are generally average. The area has 18.6% of residents aged 65 and over (488 people), higher than Greater Melbourne's 15.1%. Seniors' health outcomes are notably strong, ranking even better than the general population nationally.

Gembrook is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Gembrook's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 85.7% of its population being Australian citizens, born in Australia (87.4%), speaking English only at home (96.1%). Christianity was the predominant religion (36.3%) but Judaism was overrepresented at 0.1%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 1.0%. In terms of ancestry, English (31.9%) and Australian (31.7%) were substantially higher than regional averages of 20.1% and 18.4%, respectively.

Scottish ancestry was also notable at 8.2%. Additionally, Dutch (2.5%), Welsh (0.8%), and Russian (0.4%) ethnic groups were overrepresented compared to regional averages.

Gembrook's median age exceeds the national pattern

Gembrook's median age is 41 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and slightly older than Australia's median of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Gembrook has a notably over-represented cohort of 55-64 year-olds (14.7%) and an under-represented group of 25-34 year-olds (7.5%). According to the 2021 Census, the 75-84 age group grew from 4.9% to 6.6%, while the 65-74 cohort increased from 9.8% to 10.9%. Conversely, the 25-34 cohort declined from 10.3% to 7.5%. Demographic modeling suggests that by 2041, Gembrook's age profile will change significantly. The 75-84 cohort is projected to grow by 49%, adding 85 residents to reach 259. Residents aged 65 and older are expected to represent 67% of the population growth, while the 15-24 and 25-34 cohorts are projected to decline in population.