Gembrook

Population growth drivers in Gembrook are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of May 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Gembrook is around 2,662. This reflects an increase of 103 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,559. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 2,658 in June 2025, based on the latest ERP data release by the ABS, and an additional 22 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 13.2 persons per square kilometer. Natural growth contributed approximately 56% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch's projections for Gembrook are based on ABS/Geoscience Australia data released in 2024, with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, VIC State Government Regional/LGA projections from 2023 are used, adjusted employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends suggest an increase just below the median of statistical areas across the nation. By 2041, Gembrook's population is expected to increase by 152 persons, reflecting a total increase of 5.6% over the 16 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Gembrook, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Gembrook has seen approximately 11 new homes approved annually based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers. Between FY-21 and FY-25, around 55 homes were approved, with an additional 2 approved in FY-26. This results in an average of about 1 new resident per year arriving for each new home over the past five financial years, indicating a balanced supply and demand market with stable conditions.

The average construction cost value of these new homes is approximately $847,000, suggesting a focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties. In FY-26, there have been around $32.3 million in commercial approvals, reflecting robust local business investment. However, Gembrook records significantly lower building activity compared to Greater Melbourne, at 59.0% below the regional average per person. This constrained new construction typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings. The current housing development in Gembrook is predominantly detached houses (80.0%), with a smaller proportion of medium and high-density housing (20.0%).

This maintains the area's traditional low density character, appealing to those seeking space and family homes. However, this represents a notable shift from the existing housing stock, which is currently 98.0% houses, indicating decreasing availability of developable sites and reflecting changing lifestyles. The estimated population per dwelling approval in Gembrook is around 653 people, reflecting its quiet, low activity development environment. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, the area is projected to gain approximately 148 residents by 2041. Given current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Gembrook has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 49thth percentile nationally

No changes can significantly affect a region's performance like modifications to local infrastructure, major projects, or planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified zero projects expected to impact this area. Notable projects include Additional VLocity Trains, Level Crossing Removal Project (Melbourne), Level Crossing Removal Project, and Victorian Acute Mental Health Facilities. The following list details those likely most relevant.

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Employment performance in Gembrook ranks among the strongest 15% of areas evaluated nationally

Gembrook has a skilled workforce with notable representation in the construction sector. As of December 2025, its unemployment rate is 2.4%, lower than Greater Melbourne's 4.8%. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 5.2%.

Workforce participation in Gembrook stands at 75.5%, higher than Greater Melbourne's 69.9%. A moderate 24.1% of residents work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Employment is concentrated in construction, health care & social assistance, and education & training. The area has a high specialization in construction, with an employment share 1.6 times the regional level.

Conversely, professional & technical services have lower representation at 5.8% compared to the regional average of 10.1%. Many residents commute elsewhere for work. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment levels increased by 5.2%, labour force grew by 5.4%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.3 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 2.4% and labour force growth of 2.8%, with a similar unemployment rate increase. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project overall employment expansion by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Gembrook's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 12.8% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest data for postcode level ATO incomes in financial year 2023 shows that Gembrook had a median income of $50,596 and an average income of $68,581. This is slightly above the national averages of $47,700 (median) and $65,900 (average). In Greater Melbourne, the median income was $57,688 and the average was $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since financial year 2023, estimates for Gembrook as of March 2026 would be approximately $55,463 (median) and $75,178 (average). According to Census 2021 income data, incomes in Gembrook are around the 58th percentile nationally. The income bracket of $1,500 - 2,999 captures 35.7% of Gembrook's community (950 individuals), which is similar to the metropolitan region where this cohort represents 32.8%. After housing costs, 86.1% of income remains for other expenses. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Gembrook is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Gembrook, as per the latest Census, consisted of 98.1% houses and 1.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Gembrook stood at 34.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 53.8% and rented ones at 11.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,907, below Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. The median weekly rent in Gembrook was $360, lower than Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Gembrook's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were lower than the national figure of $375.

Gembrook features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 79.6% of all households, including 41.3% couples with children, 28.3% couples without children, and 9.3% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 20.4%, with lone person households at 18.7% and group households comprising 1.7%. The median household size is 2.8 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

The educational profile of Gembrook exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 22.4%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 15.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.0%) and graduate diplomas (2.5%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 42.9% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (13.2%) and certificates (29.7%). Educational participation is high at 34.7%, with 13.4% in primary education, 10.0% in secondary education, and 3.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 34.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 13.4% in primary education, 10.0% in secondary education, and 3.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Gembrook has 17 active public transport stops operating, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 8 different routes that collectively facilitate 900 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these services is rated as moderate, with residents typically living 442 meters away from the nearest stop. As a predominantly residential area, most commuters travel outward. Cars remain the primary mode of transport, used by 95% of residents. On average, there are 2.2 vehicles per dwelling in Gembrook, which is higher than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 24.1% of residents work from home, a figure that may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Across all routes, service frequency averages at 128 trips per day, equating to approximately 52 weekly trips per individual stop.

Gembrook's residents are extremely healthy with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis shows Gembrook's health metrics are robust. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence were low across both young and old age groups.

Private health cover was high at approximately 54% of the total population (~1,435 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 56.7%. The most common conditions were asthma (8.7%) and arthritis (7.9%), with 69.8% reporting no medical ailments, compared to Greater Melbourne's 72.6%. Working-age health outcomes are typical. Gembrook has 18.4% residents aged 65 and over (489 people), higher than Greater Melbourne's 15.0%. Senior health outcomes rank nationally higher than the general population.

Gembrook is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Gembrook's population shows lower cultural diversity, with 85.7% being citizens, 87.4% born in Australia, and 96.1% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion, comprising 36.3%. Judaism is overrepresented at 0.1%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 1.0%.

The top ancestry groups are English (31.9%), Australian (31.7%), and Scottish (8.2%). Dutch (2.5%) and Welsh (0.8%) are notably overrepresented, while Russian representation is similar regionally at 0.4%.

Gembrook's median age exceeds the national pattern

Gembrook's median age is 41 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and somewhat older than Australia's median of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Gembrook has a notably over-represented cohort of 55-64 year-olds at 14.6% and an under-represented cohort of 25-34 year-olds at 8.0%. As per the 2021 Census, the 75 to 84 age group has increased from 4.9% to 6.5%, while the 65 to 74 cohort has risen from 9.8% to 10.9%. Conversely, the 25 to 34 cohort has decreased from 10.3% to 8.0%. By 2041, Gembrook's age profile is projected to change significantly. The 75 to 84 cohort is expected to grow by 49%, adding 83 residents to reach 257. Residents aged 65 and older are anticipated to represent 67% of the population growth, while declines are projected for the 15 to 24 and 25 to 34 cohorts.