Gembrook

Population growth drivers in Gembrook are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of Nov 2025, the estimated population of Gembrook is around 2656 people. This reflects an increase from the previous population count in the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2559 people. The current estimate is based on AreaSearch's validation of new addresses and analysis of ABS ERP data released in June 2024. This results in a resident population estimate of 2639 people, with an additional 20 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density ratio is approximately 13.1 persons per square kilometer.

Natural growth contributed to around 56% of overall population gains recently. AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusting them using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, the suburb is projected to have a population of approximately 2815 people, reflecting an increase of around 158 persons and 4.9% in total over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Gembrook, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Gembrook had around 13 dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling approximately 68 homes. As of FY26, there have been 2 approvals recorded so far. On average, about 0.4 people moved to the area each year for every dwelling built between FY21 and FY25. This suggests new construction is meeting or exceeding demand, offering more buyer options while enabling population growth.

The average expected construction cost of new dwellings was $847,000, indicating a focus on premium properties. In FY26, there have been $32.3 million in commercial development approvals recorded, suggesting strong local business investment. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Gembrook has significantly less development activity, which is 51.0% below the regional average per person. This typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings.

Recent construction comprises mostly detached dwellings (86.0%) with a smaller proportion of attached dwellings (14.0%), maintaining the area's traditional low-density character appealing to families seeking space. The estimated population count is 350 people per dwelling approval, reflecting its quiet development environment. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Gembrook is forecasted to gain 130 residents by 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing favourable conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Gembrook has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

No changes can significantly affect a region's performance like alterations to local infrastructure, major projects, or planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified zero projects that are expected to impact this area. Notable projects include Additional VLocity Trains, Level Crossing Removal Project (Melbourne), Level Crossing Removal Project, and Victorian Acute Mental Health Facilities. The following list outlines those projected to be most relevant:.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Gembrook demonstrate exceptional strength compared to most Australian markets

Gembrook has a skilled workforce with notable representation in the construction sector. Its unemployment rate was 2.3% as of June 2025, below Greater Melbourne's 4.6%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 4.6%, based on AreaSearch aggregation of statistical area data. In total, 1,583 residents were employed in June 2025, with workforce participation similar to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Dominant employment sectors include construction, health care & social assistance, and education & training. Construction employment levels are particularly high at 1.6 times the regional average.

In contrast, professional & technical services employ just 5.8% of local workers, lower than Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. Many Gembrook residents commute elsewhere for work, as indicated by Census working population data. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment increased by 4.6%, while labour force grew by 4.9%, raising the unemployment rate by 0.3 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne saw employment rise by 3.5%, labour force grow by 4.0%, and unemployment increase by 0.5 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 suggest potential future demand within Gembrook. These projections estimate national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying rates across industry sectors. Applying these projections to Gembrook's employment mix indicates local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 12.8% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes and do not account for localised population projections.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 indicates Gembrook's median income among taxpayers is $50,596, with an average of $68,581. This is above the national average, compared to Greater Melbourne's median of $54,892 and average of $73,761. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, current estimates for Gembrook would be approximately $56,748 (median) and $76,920 (average) as of September 2025. Census 2021 income data shows household, family and personal incomes in Gembrook cluster around the 58th percentile nationally. The data indicates the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket dominates with 35.7% of residents (948 people), consistent with broader trends across the surrounding region showing 32.8% in the same category. After housing, 86.1% of income remains for other expenses and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Gembrook is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Gembrook, as per the latest Census data, 98.1% of dwellings were houses with 1.9% being other types such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and others. This contrasts with Melbourne metro's figures of 91.1% houses and 8.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Gembrook stood at 34.6%, with mortgaged properties at 53.8% and rented ones at 11.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,907, higher than Melbourne metro's $1,866 but close to the national average of $1,863. Meanwhile, the median weekly rent in Gembrook was $360, lower than both Melbourne metro's $361 and the national figure of $375.

Gembrook features high concentrations of family households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households comprise 79.6% of all households, including 41.3% couples with children, 28.3% couples without children, and 9.3% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 20.4%, with lone person households at 18.7% and group households comprising 1.7%. The median household size is 2.8 people, which matches the Greater Melbourne average.

The educational profile of Gembrook exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 22.4%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 15.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.0%) and graduate diplomas (2.5%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 42.9% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas (13.2%) and certificates (29.7%). Educational participation is high at 34.7%, including 13.4% in primary, 10.0% in secondary, and 3.8% in tertiary education.

Gembrook Primary School serves the area with an enrollment of 233 students as of a recent date. The school focuses on primary education, with ICSEA value of 1028 indicating typical Australian school conditions. Secondary options are available in nearby areas. There are 8.8 school places per 100 residents, below the regional average of 16.4. Some students may attend schools in adjacent areas due to this.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Gembrook has 17 active public transport stops operating, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 8 different routes that combined offer 1,010 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these services is rated as moderate, with residents on average living 442 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 144 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 59 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Gembrook is notably higher than the national average with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Gembrook shows superior health outcomes with both young and elderly cohorts experiencing low prevalence of common health conditions. Approximately 54% (~1,432 people) have private health cover, higher than Greater Melbourne's 51.6%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma (8.7%) and arthritis (7.9%), while 69.8% report no medical ailments, similar to Greater Melbourne's 70.3%. As of 2021, 17.9% (~475 people) are aged 65 and over, higher than Greater Melbourne's 13.7%. Health outcomes among seniors in Gembrook are particularly strong, outperforming the general population in health metrics.

Gembrook is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Gembrook's cultural diversity was found to be below average. As of the 2016 Census, 85.7% of its population were Australian citizens, 87.4% were born in Australia, and 96.1% spoke English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, with 36.3% of people identifying as such.

While Judaism comprised a mere 0.1%, this was an overrepresentation compared to Greater Melbourne's 0.1%. In terms of ancestry, Gembrook had higher proportions than regional averages for English (31.9%), Australian (31.7%), and Scottish (8.2%) groups. Notably, Dutch (2.5% vs regional 2.6%), Welsh (0.8% vs 0.5%), and Russian (0.4% vs 0.2%) ethnicities were also overrepresented.

Gembrook hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Gembrook's median age is 41 years, significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and slightly above Australia's median of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Gembrook has a notably higher percentage of the 55-64 age cohort (14.6% locally) but a lower percentage of 25-34 year-olds (7.9%). Post-2021 Census, the 75-84 age group increased from 4.9% to 6.1%, while the 25-34 cohort decreased from 10.3% to 7.9%. By 2041, demographic modeling projects significant changes in Gembrook's age profile. The 75-84 cohort is expected to grow by 59%, adding 94 residents to reach 257. Residents aged 65 and older are projected to represent 72% of the population growth, while declines are anticipated for the 0-4 and 25-34 age groups.