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This analysis uses Suburbs and Localities (SAL) boundaries, which can materially differ from Statistical Areas (SA2) even when sharing the same name.
SAL boundaries are defined by Australia Post and the Australian Bureau of Statistics to represent commonly-known suburb names used in postal addresses.
Statistical Areas (SA2) are designed for census data collection and may combine multiple suburbs or use different geographic boundaries. For comprehensive analysis, consider reviewing both boundary types if available.
est. as @ -- *
2021 Census | -- people
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Gembrook has an estimated 2,667 residents, up from 2,559 at the 2021 Census — a change of 108 people, or 4.2%. Growth has averaged 0.6% a year over five years. Density is about 13 people per square kilometre. Population is estimated from ABS Estimated Resident Population releases and GNAF address data, re-based from the 2021 Census and updated annually.
Detail
As of Aug 2026, the suburb of Gembrook has an estimated population of approximately 2,667, calculated by AreaSearch through evaluation of broader ABS population revisions alongside 22 validated new addresses recorded since the Census. This total demonstrates a gain of 108 people (4.2%) compared to the 2,559 residents counted in the 2021 Census, building on an estimated resident population of 2,661 derived from the June 2025 ABS ERP figures. With a population density of 13.2 persons per square kilometer, the suburb of Gembrook offers expansive living space. Over recent timeframes, demographic expansion has been fueled predominantly by natural increase, accounting for roughly 56.00000000000001% of total local population additions.
In formulating forward demographic models for the suburb of Gembrook, AreaSearch implements the ABS/Geoscience Australia SA2 projections published in 2024 with a 2022 baseline year. Where SA2 data is unavailable, projections draw upon the 2023 VIC State Government Regional/LGA releases, adapted via weighted aggregation methods from LGA down to SA2 geographic units, which also provide age-cohort growth projections for 2032 through 2041. Based on these aggregated SA2 models, the suburb of Gembrook is projected to experience growth tracking slightly below national median levels, expanding by 155 persons up to 2041, which represents an overall gain of 5.6% across the 16 years.
Frequently Asked Questions - Population
51 new dwellings have been approved in Gembrook over the past five years, an average of 10 a year. That is 3.0 approvals per 1,000 residents. Approvals are currently running at an annualised 4, well below that longer-run average. Figures come from ABS building approvals aggregated to this Suburb (SAL) boundary and are updated monthly as the ABS releases them.
Detail
Examining ABS residential approval statistics by statistical area, AreaSearch indicates that Gembrook has seen an average of roughly 10 new residential approvals per annum, representing 51 homes over the course of the preceding 5 financial years. Across FY-25 to date, 4 approvals have been lodged. Between FY-21 and FY-25, the local market maintained a balanced dynamic with an inflow of 1.9 people per year for every constructed dwelling, though the ratio has risen to 3.3 people per dwelling across the last 2 financial years, indicating strengthening buyer demand and tighter residential availability.
Approved residential projects carry an average expected construction cost of $696,000, pointing to an emphasis on higher-end builds. Furthermore, commercial building approvals have reached $32.3 million during this financial year, underscoring solid business investment in the district. Residential building volumes in Gembrook track well beneath the broader metropolitan standard, registering 70.0% below the per-capita rate of Greater Melbourne. This restrained pace of new construction is characteristic of an established locality with prospective planning restrictions, which typically provides upward support for existing dwelling values. The current construction pipeline is composed of 88.0% standalone homes and 12.0% attached dwellings, maintaining the low-density, detached character sought after by family buyers. Furthermore, the ratio of roughly 530 residents per approved home highlights the calm, limited-scale development climate of the area. According to the latest quarterly forecasts from AreaSearch, Gembrook is set to expand by 149 residents leading up to 2041. Given the prevailing pace of residential approvals, forthcoming housing additions appear well positioned to absorb anticipated population gains, supporting balanced market conditions and allowing scope for growth beyond projected levels.
Frequently Asked Questions - Development
Development applications around Gembrook
SOURCE: Planning portals and council registers, compiled by AreaSearch. Distance & bearing measured from the suburb midpoint.
AreaSearch tracks 27 current infrastructure and development projects close to Gembrook, worth an estimated $11.1 billion. 13 are already under construction and 15 are due for completion within three years. The pipeline spans residential development, communities, precincts & urban renewal and transport & logistics. Records are compiled from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, council planning portals and public announcements, reviewed and updated daily, then ranked by proximity, construction stage, completion horizon and project scale.
Detail
Community growth and property performance are closely linked to infrastructure investments and regional planning projects. Currently, no projects have been identified by AreaSearch as having a direct impact on the area. Wider infrastructure initiatives of potential relevance include Additional VLocity Trains, Level Crossing Removal Project (Melbourne), Level Crossing Removal Project, and Victorian Acute Mental Health Facilities, as outlined below.
Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.
INFRASTRUCTURE SEARCH
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Frequently Asked Questions - Infrastructure
Stockland Averley
Stockland Averley is a masterplanned residential community in the Pakenham East growth corridor comprising around 1,555 homesites. The community includes extensive wetlands, open space, future schools, a community activity centre and a future town centre. Land releases, display homes and civil works continue, with multiple stages currently under construction and sales ongoing.
Ridgelea Estate - Pakenham East
Large masterplanned residential community in Pakenham East delivering 3,000+ lots with a future town centre, schools, community facilities and extensive open space. Early stages are under construction with Stage 7 and 10 selling. The estate connects to Princes Hwy and the new East Pakenham Station, with ongoing civil works and lot titling across multiple stages.
Pakenham East Precinct (Honora Fields)
A 630 hectare masterplanned greenfield community on the eastern edge of Pakenham delivering around 7,200 homes for more than 22,000 residents. The precinct includes multiple schools, community centres, sports reserves, parks, a town centre and local convenience centre. Civil works and residential development continue across Stockland Averley, Parklea Ridgelea and Satterley Maple Grove. During 2026 Geographic Names Victoria reserved the proposed suburb name Honora Fields but required Cardinia Shire Council to undertake a further compliant community consultation before final registration of the suburb name.
The Rise Estate - Pakenham
Boutique greenfield subdivision in central Pakenham delivering 202 house and land lots alongside an 11,000 sqm local commercial precinct. Stages 1 and 2 were completed and handed over in November 2024, with many buyers already underway on their new homes. Stages 3 and 4 are in construction and progressing on schedule, with completion and handover anticipated across 2025 and 2026. The estate is marketed by KR Peters Real Estate with on-site sales at 110 Pakenham Road.
Pakenham Revitalisation Project - Stage 1 (Main Street Gateway)
Stage 1 delivers the Main Street Gateway streetscape upgrade between Drake Place and the Henty Street roundabout. Works include wider footpaths, new pedestrian crossings, upgraded lighting, street furniture, landscaping, updated parking layouts and improved outdoor dining and community spaces. Council endorsed detailed design in June 2024. Tendering is active July to August 2025 with contractor appointment targeted for September 2025. Construction is expected October 2025 to April 2026.
Pakenham Level Crossing Removal Project (McGregor Rd, Main St & Racecourse Rd)
Major infrastructure project that removed the dangerous and congested level crossings at McGregor Road, Main Street, and Racecourse Road in Pakenham by building a 2.5km elevated rail bridge. The project included a rebuilt premium Pakenham Station, a new East Pakenham Station, a 2km metropolitan rail line extension, and the creation of Barring buluk Park-six MCGs worth of new community open space with a playground and half-basketball court. The level crossings and new stations opened in June 2024, achieving the goal of a level crossing-free Pakenham line.
Maple Grove Estate
Masterplanned residential community in Pakenham East for approximately 3,200 residents. Features over 1,000 lots, 7.5 hectares of green space, a proposed primary school, community centre, and playgrounds. Located 550 metres from the new East Pakenham Train Station.
Pakenham Roads Upgrade
Three-stage road upgrade in Pakenham comprising upgrades to the Princes Freeway interchanges, McGregor Road and Racecourse Road. The project delivered additional traffic lanes, upgraded freeway ramps and bridges, signalised intersections, improved bus access, and new walking and cycling paths. The final Racecourse Road stage was completed ahead of schedule in mid-2026.
1,587 residents of Gembrook are employed, from a labour force of 1,625. Unemployment sits at 2.3%, with participation at 75.3%. Weighted for its industry mix, the area's sectors are forecast to grow about 6.1% nationally over five years. That reflects industry composition only and makes no allowance for local population growth. Unemployment and labour force come from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, updated quarterly; the industry and occupation profile is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
Gembrook features an active labour market characterized by an unemployment rate of only 2.3% and an estimated annual job expansion of 5.2%, according to AreaSearch statistical area aggregations. As of March 2026, 1,587 local residents are employed. The jobless rate sits 2.4% below the Greater Melbourne benchmark of 4.8%, while the labour force participation rate reaches an elevated 75.3%, outperforming the metropolitan figure of 70.1%. In addition, Census records show that 24.1% of workers carried out their duties from home, an outcome influenced by prevailing Covid-19 restrictions. The primary employment fields for the local workforce consist of construction, health care & social assistance, alongside education & training.
The construction industry represents a major local specialization, employing workers at 1.6 times the metropolitan average. In contrast, professional & technical roles account for only 5.8% of workers, trailing the 10.1% observed across the region. Comparisons between the resident workforce and locally situated jobs suggest that a significant proportion of workers travel beyond the immediate area for employment. Analysis of SALM and ABS data, compiled from larger statistical regions, indicates that between the year ending March 2026 and the previous period, employment rose by 5.2% while the labour force grew by 5.1%, which helped maintain a relatively steady unemployment rate. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced more modest changes, with employment growing by 2.1% and the labour force expanding by 2.3%, accompanied by an increase in unemployment of 0.2 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Mar-26 provide additional perspective on future job demand in Gembrook. These projections, which span five and ten-year horizons, have been overlaid with local employment data to estimate regional growth trajectories. Although national employment is projected to grow by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, sectoral growth varies considerably. When these industry-specific forecasts are applied to Gembrook's current employment composition, local employment is estimated to rise by 6.1% over five years and 12.8% over ten years (this approach uses a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not incorporate localized population projections).
Frequently Asked Questions - Employment
Median household income in Gembrook is $2,002 a week (about $104,000 a year), with median personal income at $815 a week. ATO records put median taxable income at $50,596 a year against an average of $68,581. Household income is from the 2021 Census; taxable income is from ATO Taxation Statistics for the latest financial year available, indexed forward using the ABS Wage Price Index.
Detail
According to ATO postcode figures for financial year 2023, personal income in the suburb of Gembrook marginally exceeds the Australian benchmark, recording a median of $50,596 and an average of $68,581. Across Greater Melbourne, the corresponding metrics were higher at $57,688 for median income and $75,164 for average income. Accounting for a 9.62% rise in the Wage Price Index since financial year 2023, updated earnings as of March 2026 are estimated at $55,463 (median) and $75,178 (average). Based on the 2021 Census, individual, household, and family incomes place the locality near the 58th percentile nationally.
The most common income range is $1,500 - 2,999, capturing 35.7% of residents (952 people), mirroring Greater Melbourne where 32.8% fall within this bracket. Residents retain 86.1% of their earnings following housing expenses, and the community sits within the 6th decile on the SEIFA income index.
Frequently Asked Questions - Income
Gembrook had 812 occupied dwellings at the 2021 Census, 98% detached houses and 2% apartments. 54% are owned with a mortgage, 12% rented and 35% owned outright. At that Census the median rent was $360 a week and the median mortgage repayment $1,907 a month. Rent absorbs 18.0% of household income here and mortgage repayments 22.0%. Dwelling stock, tenure and housing costs are 2021 Census measures — the only source that counts dwellings at this boundary size.
Detail
Residential property across Gembrook is overwhelmingly comprised of separate houses, which made up 98.1% of all dwellings at the latest Census, while apartments, semi-detached properties, and other structures accounted for 1.9%. By comparison, Melbourne metro recorded 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Outright homeownership reached an elevated 34.6%, with 53.8% of properties under mortgage and 11.7% occupied by tenants. Typical monthly mortgage payments stood at $1,907 and weekly rent was $360, coming in below the Melbourne metro medians of $2,000 and $390. Across the country, Gembrook's mortgage commitments exceed the Australian benchmark of $1,863, whereas rental costs remain beneath the national figure of $375.
Frequently Asked Questions - Housing
Gembrook counted 812 households at the 2021 Census, averaging 2.8 people each. 41% are couples with children, more than in 82% of areas nationally, against 28% couples without children. 19% of households are people living alone, and families average 1.8 children. Household and family composition is measured only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Families form 79.6% of all households in the locality, with couples with children representing 41.3%, couples without children making up 28.3%, and single parent households comprising 9.3%. Non-family living arrangements account for the remaining 20.4%, led by lone person dwellings at 18.7% and group households at 1.7%. The typical household size is 2.8 people, higher than the Greater Melbourne standard of 2.6.
Frequently Asked Questions - Households
22.4% of adults in Gembrook hold a university qualification, including 15.9% with a bachelor degree and 4.0% with postgraduate qualifications. A further 29.7% hold a vocational qualification. 1 school serves the area, with 233 enrolment places and an average ICSEA of 1,028 against a national benchmark of 1,000. Qualifications come from the 2021 Census; school enrolments, ICSEA and results come from ACARA's current release.
Detail
Educational attainment in the district shows lower tertiary qualifications relative to regional averages, with 22.4% holding higher education credentials compared to 37.0% throughout Greater Melbourne. Bachelor degrees represent 15.9% of adult qualifications, with postgraduate degrees at 4.0% and graduate diplomas at 2.5%. Conversely, vocational and technical credentials are widespread, held by 42.9% of residents aged 15+, consisting of certificates (29.7%) and advanced diplomas (13.2%). Formal study engagement is substantial throughout the community, with 34.7% of the population actively pursuing education. Primary school students constitute 13.4% of residents, secondary students account for 10.0%, and 3.8% are enrolled in tertiary studies.
Frequently Asked Questions - Education
Schools Detail
Public transport in Gembrook reaches 17 stops on 8 routes, timetabled for about 1,400 services a week. The typical home sits about 440 m from its nearest stop. Buses carry the largest share of public transport commuters. Households keep an average of 2.2 vehicles. Stop and service counts are built from operators' published GTFS timetables and refresh with each timetable release; vehicle ownership is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
Gembrook is serviced by 17 public transport stops accommodating local bus connections across 8 distinct routes, which combine to generate 1,409 weekly passenger departures. Access is moderate, with residents living an average distance of 442 meters from their nearest transit point. Private vehicles remain the primary mode of travel, used by 95% of commuting residents, and households possess an average of 2.2 vehicles, exceeding regional figures. Additionally, 24.1% of workers worked from home according to the 2021 Census, reflecting pandemic-related working arrangements. Transit services provide an average of 201 trips per day across all active routes, which translates to roughly 82 weekly trips per individual stop.
Frequently Asked Questions - Transport
Transport Stops Detail
69.8% of residents in Gembrook report no long-term health condition. 4.3% need daily assistance with core activities, and 53.9% hold private health cover. The standardised death rate runs at 4.2 per 1,000 residents. Health conditions, assistance needs and insurance are 2021 Census measures; the death rate comes from current ABS releases.
Detail
General health conditions across Gembrook are favourable according to AreaSearch evaluations of chronic illnesses and mortality rates, showing minimal prevalence of common ailments among both younger and older cohorts. Private health insurance uptake is solid at approximately 54% of the population (~1,438 people), closely aligned with the 56.7% rate reported for Greater Melbourne. Asthma (8.7) and arthritis (7.9%) are the most frequently recorded chronic ailments in the community, while 69.8% of residents reported having no long-term medical conditions, compared to 72.6% regionally. Overall health indicators for working-age residents are typical.
Those aged 65 and over constitute 18.6% of the population (496 people), exceeding the Greater Melbourne share of 15.1%, with senior residents exhibiting particularly strong health profiles that rank above national averages.
Frequently Asked Questions - Health
Gembrook is largely Australian-born, at 87.4% of residents, with 3.9% speaking a language other than English at home. The largest reported ancestries are English (31.9%) and Australian (31.7%). Ancestry, language and country of birth are counted only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Cultural diversity in Gembrook is relatively modest, with Australian citizens representing 85.7% of the populace, 87.4% born within Australia, and 96.1% using exclusively English at home. Christianity forms the largest religious group, representing 36.3% of the community. Judaism registers a distinctive local presence at 0.1%, compared against the Greater Melbourne benchmark of 1.0%. Ancestry records show that English heritage is the most prevalent at 31.9%, outstripping the Greater Melbourne regional average of 20.1%. Australian ancestry follows closely at 31.7%, well above the regional share of 18.4%, while Scottish heritage accounts for 8.2%.
Among other ethnic backgrounds, Dutch representation reaches 2.5% (compared to 1.2% regionally), Welsh stands at 0.8% (versus 0.4%), and Russian comprises 0.4% (matching 0.4% across the broader metropolitan area).
Frequently Asked Questions - Diversity
The median resident of Gembrook is 41. 21.1% of residents are aged 15 to 34. Age cohorts are not raw Census counts: the Census split is re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections.
Detail
The age distribution of Gembrook aligns relatively closely with Greater Melbourne, with every broad age bracket falling within 12.1 percentage points of the metropolitan benchmark. The median age is an estimated 41 as at August 2026, matching the 2021 Census figure and sitting 4 years above the metropolitan median of 37 recorded at that time. Seniors and retirees aged 65+ have increased their demographic share from 15.8% at the Census to an estimated 18.6%. Moving toward 2041, the 65+ cohort is anticipated to record the largest numerical increase, adding 155 people (31%) to reach 651, while younger adults, children, and middle-aged brackets are projected to experience reductions.
Frequently Asked Questions - Age
Data & MethodBoundaries, Sources & Method for Gembrook
9 of 14 data sections on this page were updated within the last 12 months — the newest current to Oct 2026.
Everything is aggregated to the Suburb (SAL) boundary shown above, on a 2021 Census baseline. Only 3 sections — housing, households and cultural diversity — still wait on the 2026 Census.
The ledger — source, cycle and currency by section
| Section | Source & update cycle | Currency |
|---|---|---|
| Updated within the last 12 months 9 sections | ||
| Population | ABS, GNAF, Geoscience Australia Annual (ABS ERP) | Aug 2026 2 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release) and updated with new dwellings from GNAF address data. Current to Aug 2026, with the 2021 Census supplying the small-area baseline. | ||
| Age profile | ABS, Geoscience Australia, State governments Annual | Aug 2026 2 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Age cohorts are re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections, current to Aug 2026. Each cohort is held as a Census baseline and a current estimate. | ||
| Development & approvals | ABS, GNAF Monthly (ABS approvals) | Aug 2026 2 months ago headline measures · Jul 2026 baseline |
| Property sales & rents | Valuer General, Rental Board, ABS Weekly sales, quarterly rents | Oct 2026 this month headline measures · Sep 2026 baseline |
| Sales from the state Valuer General register, refreshed weekly, and rents from quarterly rental bond lodgements. Both are read live each time this page loads, current to Oct 2026. | ||
| Infrastructure projects | Infrastructure Australia, Local governments Daily | May 2026 5 months ago all 2 projects tracked here |
| Project pipeline maintained continuously from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, local government and public announcements. Records are added and revised daily; this area was last updated May 2026. | ||
| Employment | ABS, DEWR, JSA Quarterly (ABS SALM) | Mar 2026 7 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Unemployment and labour force from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, current to Mar 2026. The growth outlook applies Department of Employment (now Jobs and Skills Australia) forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to the local industry mix, so it measures sector composition rather than local expansion and makes no allowance for population growth. Job demand comes from the same agency via its Internet Vacancy Index; industry and occupation structure from the 2021 Census. | ||
| Education | ABS, ACARA Annual (ACARA) | Sep 2026 last month headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Transport | ABS, State Transport Departments Each timetable release | Jul 2026 3 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Services & amenities | Provider directories, ACECQA Continuous | Sep 2026 last month all 14 measures |
| Annual and financial-year sources 2 sections | ||
| Income | ABS, ATO Annual (ATO) | FY 2023 3 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| ATO taxable income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index. Census household income provides the distribution detail. | ||
| Health | ABS, ATO Annual | 2024 2 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Census-measured — next update: 2026 Census 3 sections No more current small-area source exists for these, so they are labelled as Census-measured rather than implied to be current. | ||
| Housing | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 30 measures |
| Households | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 18 measures |
| Cultural diversity | ABS, Geoscience Australia 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 44 measures |
"Currency" is the most recent release feeding that section. Where the Census supplies the structural baseline underneath a current headline figure, the row says so.
How the numbers are built
Population
The Census provides the small-area baseline, aggregated from mesh blocks to this boundary. It is then re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release), and new dwellings built since Census night are counted from address data — 22 validated new addresses here. The headline figure is therefore a current estimate for Aug 2026, not a 2021 count (2,559 at the 2021 Census → 2,667 now). Annual growth rates are compound (CAGR), not simple averages.
Age profile
Cohort shares are not raw Census counts. Every cohort is held as a pair — the Census baseline and a current estimate — and the split is re-based using ERP and state population projections, current to Aug 2026. Median age is the Census median plus modelled change since. Charts that show both are labelled "2021 Census vs Current Estimate".
Property sales
Sourced from the state valuation authority's sales register — current, not Census, and refreshed weekly. Medians are calculated from settled transactions in the period shown; periods with very low transaction counts are flagged or suppressed, because a handful of sales can move a median substantially.
Rents
Derived from state rental bond lodgement data, by dwelling type and bedroom count. Bonds are lodged at the start of a new tenancy, so this reflects new lettings, not the whole rented stock.
Development & infrastructure
Building approvals come from current ABS releases; development applications are collected from council and state planning portals; the infrastructure pipeline is compiled from Infrastructure Australia and local government sources. Applications are matched to this boundary by address or coordinates, so very recent lodgements may not yet appear.
Employment & income
Industry and occupation structure comes from the Census, but the headline labour-market indicators do not. Unemployment and labour force are derived from ABS Small Area Labour Markets (quarterly). The employment outlook applies Department of Employment forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to this area's own industry mix (the agency is now Jobs and Skills Australia), as does the Internet Vacancy Index used for job demand. Because it is weighted on industry composition alone, that outlook carries no allowance for local population growth — in fast-growing areas the real rise in local jobs will typically be higher. Income combines Census household income with ATO taxable-income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index.
Education, transport & amenities
School enrolments, ICSEA and performance come from ACARA's current release, not the Census. Public transport stops and service frequency are derived from GTFS timetable feeds published by state transport departments. Services and amenities are proximity and count scores built from provider directories, refreshed on their own cycle. The Census contributes only the travel-to-work and qualification measures.
Rankings and benchmarks. Where we rank this area, the comparison set is every area of the same boundary type — suburbs against suburbs, SA2s against SA2s. Benchmarks compare this area against its greater capital city region and the national figure for the same measure and period.
Limits worth knowing. Small areas carry larger error margins, and the ABS introduces small random adjustments to Census counts to protect confidentiality — so totals may not sum exactly. Estimates re-based from regional data describe the area's expected trajectory, not a direct count of it. Figures are indicative for research and are not financial, planning or valuation advice.
Cross-check us. The Census baseline for this boundary is at ABS 2021 Census QuickStats (SAL20979). QuickStats reports 2021 only — the figures on this page are more current wherever the ledger shows a later date.