Gembrook

Population growth drivers in Gembrook are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of February 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Gembrook is around 2,629. This figure reflects an increase of 70 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 2,559. The latest estimate by AreaSearch, based on examination of ERP data released by the ABS in June 2024 and validation of new addresses, is 2,613. This results in a population density ratio of 13.0 persons per square kilometer. Natural growth contributed approximately 56% to overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch projects future demographic trends using ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024, with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted employing weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. By 2041, the suburb of Gembrook is expected to grow by 143 persons, reflecting an increase of approximately 4.8% over the 17-year period. This projected growth aligns with national median demographic trends.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Gembrook, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers in Gembrook shows approximately 11 residential properties were granted approval each year over the past five financial years. This totals an estimated 55 homes. So far in FY26, 2 approvals have been recorded. The average new resident per year per dwelling constructed between FY21 and FY25 was 0.2.

New supply has kept pace with or exceeded demand, offering ample buyer choice and creating capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts. The average value of new dwellings developed is $847,000, indicating a focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties. Commercial approvals this financial year totalled $32.3 million, suggesting robust local business investment. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Gembrook has significantly less development activity, 60.0% below the regional average per person. This constrained new construction typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings.

Recent construction comprises 80.0% detached dwellings and 20.0% attached dwellings, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. This marks a significant departure from existing housing patterns, which are currently 98.0% houses, suggesting diminishing developable land availability and responding to evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs. The estimated population count per dwelling approval in the area is 656 people. Population forecasts indicate Gembrook will gain 127 residents through to 2041, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Gembrook has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

No changes can significantly affect a region's performance like alterations to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. Zero projects have been identified by AreaSearch that could potentially impact this area. Notable projects include Additional VLocity Trains, Level Crossing Removal Project (Melbourne), Level Crossing Removal Project, and Victorian Acute Mental Health Facilities. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Gembrook demonstrate exceptional strength compared to most Australian markets

Gembrook has a skilled workforce with notable representation in the construction sector. Its unemployment rate was 2.4% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 4.8%. As of December 2025, 1,563 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 2.3%, below Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%.

Workforce participation is 76.1%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 71.3%. According to Census responses, 24.1% of residents work from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Dominant employment sectors include construction, health care & social assistance, and education & training. Construction employs 1.6 times the regional average.

In contrast, professional & technical services employ only 5.8% of local workers, below Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. Many residents commute elsewhere for work. Over a 12-month period ending December 2025, employment increased by 4.8%, labour force grew by 5.1%, raising the unemployment rate by 0.3 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne saw employment rise by 2.4%, labour force grow by 2.8%, and unemployment increase by 0.3 percentage points. National employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% growth over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Gembrook's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 12.8% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 indicates that Gembrook's median income among taxpayers is $50,596. The average income in the suburb is $68,581. Both figures are slightly above the national averages. In comparison, Greater Melbourne has a median income of $57,688 and an average income of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes for Gembrook as of September 2025 would be approximately $54,770 (median) and $74,239 (average). According to Census 2021 income data, household, family, and personal incomes in Gembrook fall around the 58th percentile nationally. The majority of residents, 35.7% or 938 people, earn between $1,500 and $2,999 annually, which is consistent with broader trends across the surrounding region where 32.8% of residents fall into the same income bracket. After accounting for housing costs, 86.1% of income remains for other expenses in Gembrook. The suburb's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Gembrook is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Gembrook, as per the latest Census, consisted of 98.1% houses and 1.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Gembrook was at 34.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 53.8% and rented ones at 11.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,907, lower than Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. The median weekly rent figure in Gembrook was recorded at $360, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Gembrook's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Gembrook features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 79.6% of all households, including 41.3% couples with children, 28.3% couples without children, and 9.3% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 20.4%, with lone person households at 18.7% and group households comprising 1.7%. The median household size is 2.8 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

The educational profile of Gembrook exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 22.4%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 15.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.0%) and graduate diplomas (2.5%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 42.9% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (13.2%) and certificates (29.7%). Educational participation is high at 34.7%, with 13.4% in primary education, 10.0% in secondary education, and 3.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 34.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 13.4% in primary education, 10.0% in secondary education, and 3.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Gembrook has 17 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These are serviced by 8 different routes that collectively facilitate 900 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as moderate, with residents typically located 442 meters from the nearest stop. As a primarily residential area, most commuting is outward-bound, and cars remain the dominant mode of transportation at 95%. On average, there are 2.2 vehicles per dwelling, which is higher than the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, 24.1% of residents work from home, a figure that may reflect COVID-19 conditions.

The service frequency averages 128 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 52 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Gembrook is notably higher than the national average with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Gembrook shows superior health outcomes based on AreaSearch's evaluation of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Both younger and older age groups have low incidence of common health issues.

Private health insurance coverage is high at approximately 54% (~1,418 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 56.7%. The most prevalent conditions are asthma (8.7%) and arthritis (7.9%), with 69.8% reporting no medical ailments, compared to Greater Melbourne's 72.6%. Health outcomes among working-age residents are generally average. The area has 17.9% of residents aged 65 and over (470 people), higher than Greater Melbourne's 15.1%. Senior health outcomes rank nationally higher than the general population.

Gembrook is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Gembrook's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 85.7% of its population being citizens, 87.4% born in Australia, and 96.1% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the main religion in Gembrook, comprising 36.3% of people. However, Judaism was overrepresented at 0.1%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 1.0%.

The top three ancestry groups were English (31.9%), Australian (31.7%), and Scottish (8.2%). Dutch (2.5%) and Welsh (0.8%) were notably overrepresented, while Russian showed no significant difference from the regional average at 0.4%.

Gembrook's median age exceeds the national pattern

Gembrook's median age is 41 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and slightly older than Australia's median of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Gembrook has a notably higher proportion of the 55-64 age group (14.8% locally) but a lower proportion of 25-34 year-olds (7.6%). According to the 2021 Census, the 75 to 84 age group increased from 4.9% to 6.3%, and the 35 to 44 cohort rose from 11.5% to 12.6%. Conversely, the 25 to 34 age group decreased from 10.3% to 7.6%. Demographic projections indicate significant changes in Gembrook's age profile by 2041. The 75 to 84 cohort is expected to grow by 51%, adding 84 residents to reach 250. Residents aged 65 and older will represent 72% of the anticipated population growth, while declines are projected for the 15-24 and 25-34 age groups.