Pakenham - North East
Statistical Area - sa2

Pakenham - North East lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Pakenham - North East's population is around 16,703 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 1,262 people (8.2%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 15,441 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 16,385 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 679 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 882 persons per square kilometer, which aligns with averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, Pakenham - North East has demonstrated resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 2.1%, outperforming the metropolitan area. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by natural growth, contributing approximately 68.8% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population dynamics anticipate a significant increase in the top quartile of statistical areas analysed by AreaSearch, with Pakenham - North East expected to expand by 6,117 persons to 2041 based on the latest population numbers, indicating an increase of 34.7% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Pakenham - North East among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Pakenham - North East has recorded approximately 116 residential properties granted approval annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25581 homes were approved, with an additional 42 approved in FY-26 so far. On average, 1.4 new residents have arrived per new home each year over these five years, suggesting a balance between supply and demand.

The average expected construction cost of new dwellings is $266,000, which is below the regional average, indicating more affordable housing options for buyers. In FY-26, $3.7 million in commercial approvals have been registered, reflecting limited focus on commercial development. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Pakenham - North East records around 69% of building activity per person and ranks among the 85th percentile nationally, with development activity increasing recently.

New developments consist of 80.0% detached dwellings and 20.0% medium and high-density housing, maintaining the area's low density character while attracting space-seeking buyers. The location has approximately 113 people per dwelling approval, indicating an expanding market. Population forecasts project Pakenham - North East to gain 5,793 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing buyer competition and supporting stronger price growth.

Pakenham - North East has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 12 projects likely to impact the area. Key projects include Pakenham Community Hospital, Stockland Averley, Pakenham Place Redevelopment, and Ridgelea Estate - Pakenham East. The following list details those most relevant:.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Pakenham - North East has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Pakenham - North East has a skilled workforce with an unemployment rate of 6.6% as of June 2025. There was an estimated employment growth of 3.2% in the past year.

In June 2025, 8,630 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 2.0% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation was similar to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Key industries of employment among residents are health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Construction shows strong specialization with an employment share of 1.3 times the regional level.

Professional & technical services show lower representation at 4.7% compared to the regional average of 10.1%. Employment opportunities appear limited locally based on Census data analysis. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 3.2%, labour force by 4.4%, causing unemployment rate to rise by 1.1 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne had an employment growth of 3.5% and a 0.5 percentage point rise in unemployment rate. Jobs and Skills Australia forecasts national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Pakenham - North East's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.0% over five years and 12.8% over ten years, based on simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

Pakenham - North East had a median taxpayer income of $50,891 and an average of $57,823 in the financial year 2022, according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. This is lower than national averages, with Greater Melbourne's median income being $54,892 and average income $73,761 in the same period. By September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $57,079 (median) and $64,854 (average), based on a 12.16% growth since financial year 2022. Census 2021 data shows Pakenham - North East's household, family, and personal incomes rank modestly, between the 45th and 51st percentiles. Income distribution indicates that 41.2% of locals (6,881 people) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 category, similar to the broader area where 32.8% occupy this range. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Pakenham - North East, with only 81.3% of income remaining, ranking at the 42nd percentile.

Pakenham - North East is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Pakenham - North East's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 88.3% houses and 11.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's 91.1% houses and 8.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Pakenham - North East stood at 18.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 50.7% and rented ones at 30.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, below Melbourne metro's average of $1,866. Median weekly rent in Pakenham - North East was $346, compared to Melbourne metro's $361. Nationally, Pakenham - North East's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Pakenham - North East has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 74.5% of all households, including 35.0% couples with children, 22.9% couples without children, and 15.5% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 25.5%, consisting of 22.6% lone person households and 2.8% group households. The median household size is 2.7 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.8.

Educational attainment in Pakenham - North East aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates at 18.5%, significantly lower than the Greater Melbourne average of 37.0%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common, at 12.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.9%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 42.1% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas (12.7%) and certificates (29.4%).

Educational participation is high, with 31.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 12.1% in primary education, 6.9% in secondary education, and 3.8% pursuing tertiary education. Pakenham - North East's 4 schools have a combined enrollment of 1,207 students, with typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 989) offering balanced educational opportunities. Education provision is balanced with 3 primary and 1 secondary school serving distinct age groups. Local school capacity is limited at 7.2 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 16.5, leading many families to travel for schooling. Note: where schools show 'n/a' for enrolments, please refer to the parent campus.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Pakenham - North East shows that there are 46 active transport stops currently operating. These stops offer a variety of bus services, with a total of 6 different routes providing passenger trips weekly. The combined number of weekly passenger trips across these routes is 1,394.

The accessibility of public transport in the area is rated as good, with residents typically located an average of 279 meters from their nearest transport stop. The service frequency averages at 199 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 30 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health outcomes in Pakenham - North East are marginally below the national average with the level of common health conditions among the general population somewhat typical, though higher than the nation's average among older cohorts

Pakenham - North East shows below-average health indicators with common health conditions slightly higher than the national average among older residents. Approximately 49% of the total population (~8,167 people) have private health cover, compared to Greater Melbourne's 51.6% and the national average of 55.3%. Mental health issues and asthma are the most common medical conditions in the area, affecting 10.4 and 9.6% of residents respectively.

67.9% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to Greater Melbourne's 70.3%. The area has 12.0% (1,999 people) of residents aged 65 and over, lower than Greater Melbourne's 13.7%. Health outcomes among seniors require more attention than the broader population.

Pakenham - North East was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Pakenham-North East, surveyed in August 2016, showed higher cultural diversity than most local areas with 24.5% of its residents born overseas and 18.3% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 40.9%. The 'Other' religious category comprised 2.6%, slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's 3.2%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were English (26.9%), Australian (26.3%), and Other (11.7%). Notably, Dutch ancestry was slightly overrepresented at 2.5% compared to the regional average of 2.6%, while Sri Lankan and Hungarian ancestries were also somewhat overrepresented at 0.9% and 0.4% respectively.

Pakenham - North East hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Pakenham-North East has a median age of 32 years, which is younger than the Greater Melbourne average of 37 and significantly lower than the national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Pakenham-North East has a higher proportion of residents aged 25-34 (19.1%) but fewer residents aged 55-64 (8.1%). According to post-2021 Census data, the age group 35-44 has increased from 14.7% to 16.3% of the population, while the 0-4 cohort has decreased from 9.1% to 8.0%. Demographic modeling indicates that Pakenham-North East's age profile is projected to change significantly by 2041, with the strongest growth expected in the 45-54 age group, which is projected to grow by 52%, adding 967 residents to reach a total of 2,823.