Pakenham - North East

Pakenham - North East lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Pakenham - North East's population is around 16,703 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 1,262 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 15,441. The change is inferred from ABS estimated resident population of 16,385 in June 2024 and additional validated new addresses since the Census date. This level equates to a density ratio of 882 persons per square kilometer. Over the past decade, Pakenham - North East has had a compound annual growth rate of 2.1%, outpacing metropolitan averages. Natural growth contributed approximately 68.8% of overall population gains recently.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 with adjustments made employing weighted aggregation methods. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population dynamics forecast a significant increase in the top quartile of statistical areas analysed, with Pakenham - North East expected to expand by 6,117 persons to 2041 based on latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an overall increase of 34.7%.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Pakenham - North East among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Pakenham - North East has recorded approximately 116 residential properties granted approval per year. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25581 homes were approved, with a further 48 approved in FY26 so far. On average, 1.4 new residents arrive per new home each year over these five years.

This suggests a balance between supply and demand, maintaining stable market dynamics. The average expected construction cost value of new dwellings is $266,000, which is below the regional average, indicating more affordable housing options for buyers. In FY26, $3.7 million in commercial approvals have been registered, suggesting limited focus on commercial development.

Compared to Greater Melbourne, Pakenham - North East records about 69% of the building activity per person and ranks among the 85th percentile nationally, with recent periods showing increased development activity. New developments consist of 80.0% detached dwellings and 20.0% medium and high-density housing, preserving the area's low density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers. The location has approximately 113 people per dwelling approval, indicating an expanding market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Pakenham - North East is forecasted to gain 5,793 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Pakenham - North East has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

The performance of an area is significantly influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified a total of 12 such projects that are expected to impact the area. Notable among these are the Pakenham Community Hospital project, Stockland Averley development, Pakenham Place Redevelopment initiative, and Ridgelea Estate - Pakenham East project. The following list details those considered most relevant:.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Pakenham - North East has seen below average employment performance when compared to national benchmarks

Pakenham - North East has a skilled workforce with an unemployment rate of 6.6% as of September 2025. The construction sector is particularly prominent, with estimated employment growth of 4.0% over the past year.

As of that date, 8,659 residents are employed, while the unemployment rate is 1.9% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%. Workforce participation in Pakenham - North East is broadly similar to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Key industries of employment among residents include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. The area shows strong specialization in construction with an employment share 1.3 times the regional level.

Conversely, professional & technical services have lower representation at 4.7% compared to the regional average of 10.1%. Employment opportunities locally appear limited based on Census data analysis. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 4.0%, labour force grew by 4.9%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate by 0.8 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 3.0% with a smaller increase in unemployment rate. State-level data from 25-Nov shows Victoria's employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%. National employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Pakenham - North East's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.8% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

The median taxpayer income in Pakenham - North East SA2 was $50,891 and the average was $57,823 according to AreaSearch's aggregation of postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022. This is lower than national averages; Greater Melbourne had a median income of $54,892 and an average of $73,761. Based on Wage Price Index growth from June 2022 to September 2025 (12.16%), estimated incomes for Pakenham - North East are approximately $57,079 median and $64,854 average as of September 2025. Census 2021 data shows incomes in Pakenham - North East rank modestly, between the 44th and 51st percentiles for household, family, and personal incomes. The predominant income cohort spans 41.2% (6,881 people) earning $1,500-$2,999 per week, similar to broader area patterns at 32.8%. Housing affordability is severe with only 81.3% of income remaining, ranking at the 41st percentile.

Pakenham - North East is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Pakenham - North East, as per the latest Census evaluation, 88.3% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 11.8% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments, and other dwelling types. This is compared to Melbourne metro's figures of 91.1% houses and 8.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Pakenham - North East stood at 18.6%, with mortgaged dwellings making up 50.7% and rented dwellings accounting for 30.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,733, lower than Melbourne metro's average of $1,866. The median weekly rent figure was recorded at $346, compared to Melbourne metro's $361. Nationally, Pakenham - North East's median monthly mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Pakenham - North East has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 74.5% of all households, including 35.0% couples with children, 22.9% couples without children, and 15.5% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 25.5%, with lone person households at 22.6% and group households comprising 2.8%. The median household size is 2.7 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.8.

Educational attainment in Pakenham - North East aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 18.5%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 12.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.9%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 42.1% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (12.7%) and certificates (29.4%).

Educational participation is high, with 31.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 12.1% in primary education, 6.9% in secondary education, and 3.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis in Pakenham - North East shows 46 active transport stops operating. These are a mix of bus stops serviced by 6 individual routes. The total weekly passenger trips provided by these routes is 1,394.

Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents located an average of 279 meters from the nearest stop. Service frequency averages 199 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 30 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health outcomes in Pakenham - North East are marginally below the national average with the level of common health conditions among the general population somewhat typical, though higher than the nation's average among older cohorts

Pakenham - North East shows below-average health indicators with common health conditions somewhat typical but higher than national averages among older cohorts. Private health cover stands at approximately 49%, or around 8,167 people, compared to Greater Melbourne's 51.6% and Australia's 55.3%. Mental health issues impact 10.4% of residents, while asthma affects 9.6%.

A total of 67.9% report no medical ailments, lower than Greater Melbourne's 70.3%. The area has 12.0%, or 1,999 people, aged 65 and over, compared to Greater Melbourne's 13.7%. Health outcomes among seniors require more attention than the broader population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Pakenham - North East was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Pakenham-North East, surveyed in July-August 2016, had a higher cultural diversity than most local areas. Its population born overseas was 24.5%, speaking languages other than English at home stood at 18.3%. Christianity dominated the religious landscape with 40.9% of residents.

The 'Other' religion category saw an overrepresentation in Pakenham-North East, comprising 2.6%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 3.2%. Ancestry-wise, English (26.9%) and Australian (26.3%) were the top groups, followed by 'Other' at 11.7%. Notably, Dutch ancestry was slightly overrepresented at 2.5% versus the regional average of 2.6%, while Sri Lankan stood at 0.9% (regional: 1.1%) and Hungarian at 0.4% (same as regionally).

Pakenham - North East hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Pakenham-North East has a median age of 32 years, which is younger than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and significantly lower than Australia's national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Pakenham-North East has a higher proportion of residents aged 25-34 (19.1%) but fewer residents aged 55-64 (8.1%). According to data from the 2021 Census, the population aged 35-44 has increased from 14.7% to 16.3%, while the 0-4 age group has decreased from 9.1% to 8.0%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests that Pakenham-North East's age profile will change significantly, with the strongest projected growth in the 45-54 cohort, which is expected to increase by 52%, adding 967 residents to reach a total of 2,823.