Pakenham - North East

Pakenham - North East lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Pakenham - North East's population, as of February 2026, is approximately 17,042. This figure represents a growth of 1,601 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 15,441. The increase is inferred from ABS' estimated resident population of 16,379 in June 2024 and an additional 709 validated new addresses post-Census. This results in a population density ratio of approximately 900 persons per square kilometer, comparable to averages seen across other locations assessed by AreaSearch. Pakenham - North East's growth rate of 10.4% since the 2021 Census exceeds the national average of 9.9%, indicating it as a region with significant population growth. Natural growth contributed around 68.8% of overall population gains during recent periods in this area.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by these data, AreaSearch employs the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusting them using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population dynamics suggest a significant increase in the top quartile of statistical areas analyzed by AreaSearch, with Pakenham - North East expected to expand by approximately 6,117 persons by 2041 based on latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an overall increase of around 32.0% over these 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Pakenham - North East among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Pakenham - North East has recorded approximately 116 residential properties granted approval per year. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25581 homes were approved, with an additional 54 approved in FY26 so far. On average, about 1.4 new residents arrive per new home each year over these five years, suggesting a balance between supply and demand and stable market conditions.

The average expected construction cost of new dwellings is $266,000, which is below the regional average, indicating more affordable housing options for buyers. This financial year has seen $3.7 million in commercial approvals registered, showing limited focus on commercial development compared to residential. Relative to Greater Melbourne, Pakenham - North East records about 69% of the building activity per person and ranks among the 85th percentile nationally, with development activity increasing recently.

New development consists of 80% detached dwellings and 20% medium and high-density housing, maintaining the area's low density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers. There are approximately 113 people per dwelling approval in the location, indicating an expanding market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Pakenham - North East is forecasted to gain 5,454 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Pakenham - North East has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 12 projects likely to impact the area. Notable projects include Pakenham Community Hospital, Pakenham Place Redevelopment, Ridgelea Estate - Pakenham East, and Stockland Averley. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Pakenham - North East has seen below average employment performance when compared to national benchmarks

Pakenham - North East has a skilled workforce with 6.6% unemployment rate and an estimated 4.0% employment growth in the past year. As of September 2025, there are 8,659 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.9% above Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%. Workforce participation is similar to Greater Melbourne at 71.0%.

A moderate 17.3% of residents work from home. Key industries include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Construction shows strong specialization with an employment share 1.3 times the regional level. Conversely, professional & technical services have lower representation at 4.7% compared to the regional average of 10.1%.

Employment opportunities appear limited locally based on Census data comparison. Between September 2024 and 2025, employment levels increased by 4.0%, labour force grew by 4.9%, causing unemployment rate to rise by 0.8 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment growth of 3.0% and a 0.3 percentage point rise in unemployment rate. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia (May-25) project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Pakenham - North East's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.8% over ten years, assuming constant population projections.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

The median taxpayer income in Pakenham - North East SA2 was $54,212 and the average was $60,908 according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. This is lower than national averages, with Greater Melbourne having a median income of $57,688 and an average of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes for September 2025 would be approximately $58,684 (median) and $65,933 (average). Census 2021 data shows household, family, and personal incomes in Pakenham - North East rank modestly between the 44th and 51st percentiles. Income distribution indicates that 41.2% of locals (7,021 people) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 category, reflecting broader area patterns where 32.8% occupy this range. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 81.3% of income remaining, ranking at the 41st percentile.

Pakenham - North East is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Dwelling structure in Pakenham - North East, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 88.3% houses and 11.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Pakenham - North East was at 18.6%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (50.7%) or rented (30.7%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,733, below Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. The median weekly rent figure was recorded at $346, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Pakenham - North East's mortgage repayments are lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are less than the national figure of $375.

Pakenham - North East has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 74.5% of all households, including 35.0% couples with children, 22.9% couples without children, and 15.5% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 25.5%, with lone person households at 22.6% and group households comprising 2.8%. The median household size is 2.7 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Educational attainment in Pakenham - North East aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 18.5%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 12.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.9%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 42.1% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (12.7%) and certificates (29.4%). Educational participation is high, with 31.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes primary education (12.1%), secondary education (6.9%), and tertiary education (3.8%).

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis shows 44 active transport stops in Pakenham - North East, with a mix of bus services. These stops are served by 6 individual routes, collectively offering 833 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 278 meters from the nearest stop. As primarily residential, most residents commute outward, with car being the dominant mode at 92%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.5 per dwelling, above the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, 17.3% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 119 trips per day across all routes, translating to approximately 18 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Pakenham - North East is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a considerably higher degree among older age cohorts

Pakenham North East faces significant health challenges based on AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are high, with common health conditions prevalent across all age groups but more so among older cohorts. Private health cover is relatively low at approximately 49% of the total population (~8,384 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 56.7% and the national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions are mental health issues (10.4%) and asthma (9.6%), while 67.9% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 72.6% in Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents have an above-average prevalence of chronic health conditions. As of 31 December 2020, the area has 12.4% of residents aged 65 and over (2,106 people), lower than Greater Melbourne's 15.1%. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges but rank lower nationally compared to the broader population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Pakenham - North East was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Pakenham-North East, surveyed in June 2016, had a higher cultural diversity than most local areas, with 24.5% of its population born overseas and 18.3% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the dominant religion, comprising 40.9%. The 'Other' religious group showed an overrepresentation of 2.6%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 2.3%.

In terms of ancestry, English (26.9%) and Australian (26.3%) were substantially higher than regional averages of 20.1% and 18.4%, respectively. The 'Other' category comprised 11.7%. Notable divergences included Dutch at 2.5% (vs 1.2%), Sri Lankan at 0.9% (vs 0.8%), and Hungarian at 0.4% (vs 0.3%).

Pakenham - North East hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Pakenham-North East has a median age of 32 years, which is younger than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and significantly lower than Australia's national average of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Pakenham-North East has a higher proportion of residents aged 25-34 (18.5%) but fewer residents aged 55-64 (8.3%). According to data from the 2021 Census, the age group of 35 to 44 years has increased from 14.7% to 16.6% of the population. Conversely, the 0 to 4 age cohort has decreased from 9.1% to 7.8%, and the 25 to 34 age group has dropped from 19.7% to 18.5%. Demographic projections suggest that Pakenham-North East's age profile will change significantly by 2041, with the strongest projected growth in the 45 to 54 age cohort, which is expected to increase by 48%, adding 914 residents to reach a total of 2,823.