Pakenham - North East
Statistical Area - sa2

Pakenham - North East lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Pakenham - North East's population is around 16,690 as of Aug 2025. This reflects an increase of 1,249 people (8.1%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 15,441 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 16,385 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 674 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 881 persons per square kilometer. Over the past decade, Pakenham - North East has demonstrated resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 2.1%, outpacing the metropolitan area. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by natural growth that contributed approximately 68.8% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Anticipating future population dynamics, a significant population increase in the top quartile of statistical areas analysed by AreaSearch is forecast, with the area expected to expand by 6,117 persons to 2041 based on the latest population numbers, with an increase of 34.8% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Pakenham - North East among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Pakenham - North East has recorded approximately 116 residential properties granted approval annually. Development approval data is produced by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on a financial year basis, showing 581 homes approved over the past five years from FY-2021 to FY-2025, with 20 approvals so far in FY-2026. On average, 1.4 new residents per year per dwelling constructed have been recorded between FY-2021 and FY-2025. The average construction cost value of new homes is $340,000, which is below the regional average.

Commercial development approvals totalled $3.7 million in this financial year. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Pakenham - North East has around two-thirds the rate of new dwelling approvals per person but ranks among the 85th percentile nationally for building activity, which has accelerated recently. New building activity consists of 80.0% detached dwellings and 20.0% attached dwellings, maintaining the area's low density nature while attracting space-seeking buyers with an average of 113 people per approval.

Pakenham - North East is projected to grow by 5,806 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Pakenham - North East has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Area infrastructure changes significantly influence local performance. AreaSearch identified 12 projects potentially impacting the area. Notable projects include Pakenham Community Hospital, Pakenham Level Crossing Removal Project, Pakenham Place Redevelopment, and Ridgelea Estate - Pakenham East. The following list details those likely most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Pakenham - North East shows employment indicators that trail behind approximately 70% of regions assessed across Australia

Pakenham North East has a skilled workforce with the construction sector prominent. The unemployment rate was 6.6% in June 2025, an increase from the previous year's estimated growth of 3.2%.

As of June 2025, 8,630 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 6.6%, 2.0% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation was similar to Greater Melbourne's at 64.1%. The key industries for employment among residents were health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Construction had a particularly strong representation with an employment share 1.3 times the regional level.

However, professional & technical services were under-represented at 4.7%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. Employment opportunities appeared limited locally based on Census data analysis by AreaSearch. Over June 2024 to June 2025, employment increased by 3.2% while labour force grew by 4.4%, leading to an unemployment rise of 1.1 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne had employment growth of 3.5%, labour force growth of 4.0%, and an unemployment increase of 0.5 percentage points. State-level data from Sep-25 showed Victoria's employment grew by 1.08% year-on-year (adding 39,880 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia projected national growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Pakenham North East's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.0% over five years and 12.8% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data for financial year 2022 shows Pakenham - North East had a median taxpayer income of $50,891 and an average income of $57,823. Nationally, these figures are lower at $54,892 (median) and $73,761 (average). In Greater Melbourne, the median is $54,892 and the average is $73,761. Based on a 10.11% increase since financial year 2022, current estimates for Pakenham - North East are approximately $56,036 (median) and $63,669 (average) as of March 2025. The 2021 Census ranks household, family, and personal incomes in Pakenham - North East between the 45th and 51st percentiles. Income distribution shows that 41.2% of locals (6,876 people) earn between $1,500 and $2,999, similar to regional levels at 32.8%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 81.3% of income remaining, ranking at the 42nd percentile.

Pakenham - North East is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Pakenham - North East's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 88.3% houses and 11.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's 91.1% houses and 8.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Pakenham - North East stood at 18.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 50.7% and rented ones at 30.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, lower than Melbourne metro's average of $1,866. The median weekly rent figure in the area was $346, compared to Melbourne metro's $361. Nationally, Pakenham - North East's mortgage repayments were below the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Pakenham - North East has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 74.5% of all households, including 35.0% couples with children, 22.9% couples without children, and 15.5% single parent families. Non-family households make up 25.5%, with lone person households at 22.6% and group households comprising 2.8%. The median household size is 2.7 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.8.

Educational attainment in Pakenham - North East aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates at 18.5%, significantly lower than the Greater Melbourne average of 37.0%. This indicates both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common at 12.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.9%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 42.1% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas at 12.7% and certificates at 29.4%.

Educational participation is notably high, with 31.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 12.1% in primary education, 6.9% in secondary education, and 3.8% pursuing tertiary education. Pakenham - North East's 4 schools have a combined enrollment reaching 1,207 students. The area demonstrates typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 989) with balanced educational opportunities. Education provision is balanced with 3 primary and 1 secondary schools serving distinct age groups. Limited local school capacity (7.2 places per 100 residents vs 16.5 regionally) means many families travel to nearby areas for schooling. Note: where schools show 'n/a' for enrolments, please refer to parent campus.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Pakenham - North East has 46 active public transport stops operating, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by six different routes that together facilitate 1,394 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents on average located 279 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 199 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 30 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health outcomes in Pakenham - North East are marginally below the national average with the level of common health conditions among the general population somewhat typical, though higher than the nation's average among older cohorts

Pakenham - North East shows below-average health indicators with common health conditions among its general population being somewhat typical but higher than the national average for older cohorts. Approximately 49% of the total population (~8,161 people) have private health cover, compared to Greater Melbourne's 51.6% and the national average of 55.3%. Mental health issues affect 10.4% of residents, while asthma impacts 9.6%.

Around 67.9% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 70.3% across Greater Melbourne. The area has 12.0% of residents aged 65 and over (1,997 people), lower than the 13.7% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors require more attention than those of the broader population.

Pakenham - North East was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Pakenham-North East, surveyed between June 2016 to June 2021, had a higher cultural diversity compared to most local areas. It recorded 24.5% of its population born overseas and 18.3% speaking languages other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, with 40.9%.

The 'Other' religious category was slightly overrepresented at 2.6%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 3.2%. In terms of ancestry, English (26.9%) and Australian (26.3%) were the top groups, followed by 'Other' (11.7%). Some ethnic groups showed notable differences: Dutch (2.5% vs regional 2.6%), Sri Lankan (0.9% vs 1.1%), and Hungarian (0.4% vs 0.4%).

Pakenham - North East hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Pakenham-North East has a median age of 32 years, which is younger than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and significantly lower than Australia's national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Pakenham-North East has a higher proportion of residents aged 25-34 (19.1%) but fewer residents aged 55-64 (8%). According to the post-2021 Census data, the age group of 35-44 has increased from 14.7% to 16.3%, while the 0-4 cohort has declined from 9.1% to 8%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests that Pakenham-North East's age profile will change significantly. The strongest projected growth is in the 45-54 age group, which is expected to increase by 52%, adding 968 residents and reaching a total of 2,823.