Pakenham - North East

Pakenham - North East lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Pakenham - North East's population is around 16,736 as of May 2026. This reflects an increase of 1,295 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 15,441 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 16,593 from the ABS as of June 2025 and an additional 778 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 884 persons per square kilometer. Over the past decade, Pakenham - North East has demonstrated resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 1.8%, outpacing the Greater Melbourne. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by natural growth that contributed approximately 66.4% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Anticipating future population dynamics, a significant population increase in the top quartile of statistical areas analysed by AreaSearch is forecast, with the area expected to expand by 5,779 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 33.7% in total over the 16 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Pakenham - North East among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Pakenham - North East has recorded approximately 116 residential properties granted approval annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY-2021 to FY-2025, around 581 homes were approved. In FY-2026, up until now, 94 homes have been approved.

On average, over these five years, about 1.4 new residents arrived per year for each new home built. This suggests a balance between supply and demand, maintaining stable market conditions. The average construction cost value of new dwellings is $266,000, which is below the regional average, indicating more affordable housing options.

In FY-2026, commercial approvals totalling $3.7 million have been registered, suggesting limited focus on commercial development. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Pakenham - North East has about three-quarters the building activity per person but ranks among the 85th percentile nationally in terms of development activity. Recent periods have seen an increase in development activity. New developments consist of 80% detached dwellings and 20% medium and high-density housing, preserving the area's low density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers with its emphasis on detached housing. The location has approximately 113 people per dwelling approval, indicating a growing market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Pakenham - North East is forecasted to gain around 5,636 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Pakenham - North East has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 49thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 12 projects that may impact the area. Key projects include Pakenham Community Hospital, Pakenham Place Redevelopment, Ridgelea Estate - Pakenham East, and Stockland Averley. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Pakenham - North East has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Pakenham - North East has a skilled workforce with the construction sector being prominent. The unemployment rate was 6.9% in December 2025, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%. There was an estimated employment growth of 3.6% over the past year.

As of December 2025, 8,715 residents were employed and the workforce participation rate was 72.3%, slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's 69.9%. According to Census responses, 17.3% of residents worked from home. The key industries of employment among residents are health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Construction shows strong specialization with an employment share 1.3 times the regional level.

Conversely, professional & technical services have lower representation at 4.7% compared to the regional average of 10.1%. Employment opportunities locally appear limited based on Census data. During the year to December 2025, employment levels increased by 3.6%, while labour force increased by 4.7%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 1.0 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 2.4% and labour force growth of 2.8%, with a 0.3 percentage point rise in unemployment rate. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years for national employment. Applying these projections to Pakenham - North East's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.8% over ten years, assuming constant population projections.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

The median taxpayer income in Pakenham - North East SA2 is $54,212 and the average is $60,908 according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. This is lower than national averages; Greater Melbourne's median income is $57,688 with an average of $75,164. By March 2026, estimates suggest the median will be approximately $59,427 and the average will be around $66,767 based on Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2023. In Census 2021 income data, Pakenham - North East ranks modestly for household, family, and personal incomes, between the 44th and 51st percentiles. The predominant income cohort spans 6,895 people (41.2% of locals), falling within the $1,500 - 2,999 category. This pattern is also seen in broader areas where 32.8% occupy this range. Housing affordability pressures are severe; only 81.3% of income remains after housing costs, ranking at the 41st percentile.

Pakenham - North East is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Pakenham - North East's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, comprised 88.3% houses and 11.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In contrast, Melbourne metro had 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Pakenham - North East was 18.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 50.7% and rented dwellings at 30.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, below Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. Median weekly rent in the area was $346, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Pakenham - North East's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Pakenham - North East has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 74.5% of all households, including 35.0% couples with children, 22.9% couples without children, and 15.5% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 25.5%, with lone person households at 22.6% and group households comprising 2.8%. The median household size is 2.7 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Educational attainment in Pakenham - North East aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 18.5%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. This discrepancy presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common, at 12.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.9%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 42.1% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (12.7%) and certificates (29.4%).

Educational participation is high, with 31.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 12.1% in primary education, 6.9% in secondary education, and 3.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Pakenham - North East has 44 active public transport stops, all of which are bus services. These stops are served by six different routes that collectively facilitate 833 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically situated 278 meters from the nearest stop. Primarily residential, most inhabitants commute outward, with cars being the dominant mode of transportation at 92%. On average, there are 1.5 vehicles per dwelling, exceeding the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, 17.3% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 119 trips daily across all routes, equating to approximately 18 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Pakenham - North East is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a considerably higher degree among older age cohorts

Pakenham North East faces significant health challenges based on AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are high, with common health conditions prevalent across all age groups but more so among older cohorts. Private health cover is relatively low at approximately 49% of the total population (~8,234 people), compared to 56.7% in Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions are mental health issues (10.4%) and asthma (9.6%). 67.9% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 72.6% in Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents have an above-average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 12.0% of residents aged 65 and over (2,009 people), lower than the 15.0% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges but rank lower nationally than the broader population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Pakenham - North East was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Pakenham-North East, as per the data from June 2021, exhibited higher cultural diversity compared to most other local areas. It had a population where 24.5% were born overseas and 18.3% spoke languages other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Pakenham-North East, comprising 40.9% of its population.

However, the category 'Other' showed a higher percentage here at 2.6%, compared to Greater Melbourne's average of 2.3%. In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were English (26.9%), Australian (26.3%), and Other (11.7%). Notably, Dutch ancestry was overrepresented at 2.5% in Pakenham-North East, compared to the regional average of 1.2%. Sri Lankan ancestry also showed a higher representation here at 0.9%, versus 0.8% regionally. Hungarian ancestry was slightly overrepresented at 0.4% in Pakenham-North East, compared to the regional average of 0.3%.

Pakenham - North East hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Pakenham-North East has a median age of 32 years, which is younger than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and significantly lower than the national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Pakenham-North East has a higher percentage of residents aged 0-4 (8.2%) but fewer residents aged 55-64 (8.4%). According to data from the 2021 Census, the population aged 35-44 has increased from 14.7% to 16.7%, while the percentage of those aged 5-14 has decreased from 14.9% to 13.8%. The proportion of residents aged 25-34 has also dropped, from 19.7% to 18.6%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests significant changes in Pakenham-North East's age profile. The 45-54 cohort is projected to grow by 50%, adding 916 residents and reaching a total of 2,747.