Pakenham - North East

Pakenham - North East lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Pakenham - North East's population is around 17,042 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 1,601 people (10.4%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 15,441 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 16,379 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 709 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 900 persons per square kilometer, which is relatively in line with averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Pakenham - North East's 10.4% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the national average (9.9%), marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by natural growth, which contributed approximately 68.8% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Anticipating future population dynamics, a significant population increase in the top quartile of statistical areas analysed by AreaSearch is forecast, with the area expected to expand by 6,117 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 32.0% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Pakenham - North East among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Pakenham - North East has recorded around 116 residential properties granted approval per year, with 581 homes approved over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 54 so far in FY-26. At an average of 1.4 new residents per year arriving per new home over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), supply and demand seem well-matched, fostering stable market dynamics, while new dwellings are developed at an average construction cost of $266,000—below the regional average—suggesting more affordable housing options. Additionally, $3.7 million in commercial approvals have been registered this financial year, indicating a limited commercial development focus.

Relative to Greater Melbourne, Pakenham - North East records about 69% of the building activity per person and ranks within the 85th percentile of areas assessed nationally, though development activity has picked up in recent periods. New development consists of 80.0% detached dwellings and 20.0% medium and high-density housing, preserving the area's low-density nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers. The location has approximately 113 people per dwelling approval, indicating an expanding market.

Population forecasts indicate Pakenham - North East will gain 5,454 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Pakenham - North East has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total, 12 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include Pakenham Community Hospital, Pakenham Place Redevelopment, Ridgelea Estate - Pakenham East, and Stockland Averley, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Pakenham - North East has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Pakenham - North East has a skilled workforce, with the construction sector a particular standout in terms of representation, an unemployment rate of 6.9%, and 3.6% in estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 8,715 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 2.1% above Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%, and workforce participation is broadly similar to Greater Melbourne's 71.3%. Based on Census responses, a moderate 17.3% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

The key industries of employment among residents are health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. The area shows particularly strong specialization in construction, with an employment share of 1.3 times the regional level. Conversely, professional & technical services show lower representation at 4.7% versus the regional average of 10.1%. The area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of the Census working population versus the resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, during the year to December 2025, employment levels increased by 3.6% and the labour force increased by 4.7%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 1.0 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 2.4% and labour force growth of 2.8%, with a 0.3 percentage point rise. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Pakenham - North East. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Pakenham - North East's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.8% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

The Pakenham - North East SA2 shows a median taxpayer income of $54,212 and an average of $60,908 according to the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for FY-23. This is lower than average on a national basis, contrasting with Greater Melbourne's median income of $57,688 and average income of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $58,684 (median) and $65,933 (average) as of September 2025. Census 2021 income data shows household, family and personal incomes all rank modestly in Pakenham - North East, between the 44th and 51st percentiles. Distribution data shows the predominant cohort spans 41.2% of locals (7,021 people) in the $1,500 - 2,999 category, reflecting patterns seen in the broader area where 32.8% similarly occupy this range. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 81.3% of income remaining, ranking at the 41st percentile.

Pakenham - North East is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Dwelling structure within Pakenham - North East, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 88.3% houses and 11.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Pakenham - North East was lagging that of Melbourne metro, at 18.6%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (50.7%) or rented (30.7%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well below the Melbourne metro average at $1,733, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $346, compared to Melbourne metro's $2,000 and $390. Nationally, Pakenham - North East's mortgage repayments are lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are less than the national figure of $375.

Pakenham - North East has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 74.5% of all households, comprising 35.0% couples with children, 22.9% couples without children, and 15.5% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 25.5%, with lone person households at 22.6% and group households comprising 2.8% of the total. The median household size of 2.7 people is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Educational attainment in Pakenham - North East aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (18.5%) substantially below the Greater Melbourne average of 37.0%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 12.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.9%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 42.1% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (12.7%) and certificates (29.4%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 31.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 12.1% in primary education, 6.9% in secondary education, and 3.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 44 active transport stops operating within Pakenham - North East, comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 6 individual routes, collectively providing 833 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 278 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 92%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.5 per dwelling, which is above the regional average. Some 17.3% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 119 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 18 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Pakenham - North East is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a considerably higher degree among older age cohorts

Pakenham - North East faces significant health challenges, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a considerably higher degree among older age cohorts, and the rate of private health cover is relatively low at approximately 49% of the total population (~8,384 people). This compares to 56.7% across Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are mental health issues and asthma, impacting 10.4 and 9.6% of residents, respectively, while 67.9% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents show an above average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 12.4% of residents aged 65 and over (2,106 people), which is lower than the 15.1% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, though they rank lower nationally than the broader population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Pakenham - North East was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Pakenham - North East is more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets, with 24.5% of its population born overseas and 18.3% speaking a language other than English at home. The main religion in Pakenham - North East is Christianity, which makes up 40.9% of the population. However, the most apparent overrepresentation is in Other, which comprises 2.6% of the population, compared to 2.3% across Greater Melbourne.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Pakenham - North East are English, comprising 26.9% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 20.1%; Australian, comprising 26.3% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 18.4%; and Other, comprising 11.7% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Dutch is notably overrepresented at 2.5% of Pakenham - North East (vs 1.2% regionally), Sri Lankan at 0.9% (vs 0.8%), and Hungarian at 0.4% (vs 0.3%).

Pakenham - North East hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

At 32 years, Pakenham - North East's median age is materially younger than the Greater Melbourne average of 37 and also significantly lower than the 38-year national average. Relative to Greater Melbourne, Pakenham - North East has a higher concentration of 25 - 34 residents (18.5%) but fewer 55 - 64 year-olds (8.3%). Post-2021 Census data shows the 35 to 44 age group has grown from 14.7% to 16.6% of the population. Conversely, the 0 to 4 cohort has declined from 9.1% to 7.8% and the 25 to 34 group dropped from 19.7% to 18.5%. Demographic modeling suggests Pakenham - North East's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041. The 45 to 54 cohort shows the strongest projected growth at 48%, adding 914 residents to reach 2,823.