Emerald - Cockatoo
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Emerald - Cockatoo reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Emerald-Cockatoo's population was 19,045 as of Nov 2025, an increase of 412 people since the 2021 Census. The population in June 2024 was estimated at 18,958 by ABS, with 68 new addresses validated since the Census date. This resulted in a density ratio of 51 persons per square kilometer. Natural growth contributed approximately 55.9% to recent population gains. AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for SA2 areas released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 for uncovers areas, adjusted using weighted aggregation method.

Population growth rates by age group are applied until 2041. Future population increase is expected to be just below the median, with an anticipated growth of 1,184 persons by 2041, a total increase of 5.8%.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Emerald - Cockatoo, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Emerald - Cockatoo has recorded approximately 30 residential properties granted approval annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25153 homes were approved, with a further 6 approved in FY-26. The average new residents per year per dwelling constructed during this period was 0.8.

This indicates that new supply is meeting or exceeding demand, providing ample buyer choice and capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts. The average construction value of these properties was $498,000, suggesting developers are focusing on the premium market with high-end developments. In FY-26, commercial approvals totalled $53.8 million, indicating strong commercial development momentum. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Emerald - Cockatoo has significantly less development activity, 85.0% below the regional average per person. This scarcity of new dwellings typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties. The area's development activity is also under the national average, suggesting its established nature and potential planning limitations.

Recent construction in Emerald - Cockatoo comprises 84.0% standalone homes and 16.0% medium and high-density housing. This maintains the area's traditional low density character, focusing on family homes appealing to those seeking space. This represents a notable shift from the area's existing housing, which is currently 99.0% houses, indicating decreasing availability of developable sites and reflecting changing lifestyles and the need for more diverse, affordable housing options. The estimated population count per dwelling approval in Emerald - Cockatoo is 680 people, reflecting its quiet, low activity development environment. Future projections show the area adding 1,097 residents by 2041. With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Emerald - Cockatoo has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 16 projects that could affect this region. Notable ones include Kaduna Park Estate, Arbor Officer, Golden Win Estate (formerly Starling Road Residential Subdivision), and Ridgelea Estate - Pakenham East. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Emerald - Cockatoo ranks among the strongest 15% of areas evaluated nationally

Emerald - Cockatoo has a skilled workforce with an unemployment rate of 2.3% in the construction sector, which is particularly notable due to its high representation. Over the past year, ending June 2025, there was an estimated employment growth of 4.1%.

As of that month, 11,271 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 2.4%, below Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation in Emerald - Cockatoo was 66.4%, slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. The dominant employment sectors among residents include construction, health care & social assistance, and education & training. Construction stands out with employment levels at 1.8 times the regional average.

Professional & technical services have a limited presence, at 6.2% compared to the regional average of 10.1%. There appears to be limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the difference between Census working population and resident population numbers. Between June 2024 and May 2025, Emerald - Cockatoo saw employment increase by 4.1% while the labour force grew by 4.4%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate of 0.3 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 3.5% and labour force growth of 4.0%, with an unemployment rate rise of 0.5 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years for the country as a whole. Applying these projections to Emerald - Cockatoo's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.2% over five years and 12.9% over ten years, based on simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows Emerald - Cockatoo's median income among taxpayers is $54,011, with an average of $73,210. This is high nationally compared to Greater Melbourne's median of $54,892 and average of $73,761. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, current estimates for Emerald - Cockatoo would be approximately $60,579 (median) and $82,112 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Emerald - Cockatoo cluster around the 69th percentile nationally. The earnings profile shows that 35.7% of residents (6,799 people) fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket, similar to the surrounding region where 32.8% occupy this bracket. Economic strength is evident with 30.3% of households achieving high weekly earnings exceeding $3,000, supporting elevated consumer spending. After housing costs, residents retain 86.8% of income, reflecting strong purchasing power and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Emerald - Cockatoo is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Emerald - Cockatoo's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 99.2% houses and 0.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Melbourne metro had 91.1% houses and 8.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Emerald - Cockatoo stood at 35.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 56.9% and rented ones at 7.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,980, higher than Melbourne metro's $1,866. Weekly rent median figure in the area was $370, compared to Melbourne metro's $361. Nationally, Emerald - Cockatoo's mortgage repayments were higher at $1,980 versus Australia's average of $1,863, while rents were lower at $370 against the national figure of $375.

Emerald - Cockatoo features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 82.0% of all households, including 43.5% couples with children, 29.0% couples without children, and 8.9% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 18.0%, with lone person households at 16.3% and group households comprising 1.7%. The median household size is 2.9 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.8.

The educational profile of Emerald - Cockatoo exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area has educational challenges, with university qualification rates at 23.6%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 16.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.3%) and graduate diplomas (3.2%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 41.3% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (12.9%) and certificates (28.4%).

Educational participation is high at 31.5%, including 11.3% in primary education, 9.6% in secondary education, and 4.1% pursuing tertiary education. There are seven schools operating within Emerald - Cockatoo, educating approximately 2,226 students. The area has typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1036) with balanced educational opportunities, including five primary, one secondary, and one K-12 school. School places per 100 residents are lower at 11.7 compared to the regional average of 16.5, indicating some students may attend schools in nearby areas.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Emerald-Cockatoo has 82 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 9 different routes that together facilitate 1,125 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these services is limited, with residents on average being located 1375 meters away from the nearest stop.

Across all routes, service frequency averages at 160 trips per day, equating to approximately 13 weekly trips per individual stop.

Emerald - Cockatoo's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data shows Emerald - Cockatoo residents have a relatively low prevalence of common health conditions across both younger and older age groups. The rate of private health cover is very high at approximately 56% of the total population (~10,665 people), compared to 51.6% in Greater Melbourne.

Mental health issues and asthma are the most common medical conditions in the area, affecting 8.7 and 8.3% of residents respectively. 68.6% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 70.3% across Greater Melbourne. As of 2016, 18.0% of residents are aged 65 and over (3,424 people), higher than the 13.7% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors in Emerald - Cockatoo are particularly strong, performing better than the general population in health metrics.

Emerald - Cockatoo is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Emerald-Cockatoo, surveyed in 2016, had a population where 85.3% were born in Australia, 89.5% were citizens, and 95.3% spoke English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, at 35.6%. Judaism, however, was slightly overrepresented at 0.2%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 0.1%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were English (30.8%), Australian (30.0%), and Scottish (8.1%). Notable divergences included Dutch (3.1% vs regional 2.6%), Hungarian (0.5% vs 0.4%), and Welsh (0.7% vs 0.5%).

Emerald - Cockatoo's median age exceeds the national pattern

Emerald-Cockatoo's median age is 41 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and slightly older than Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, the 55-64 age group is notably over-represented in Emerald-Cockatoo at 13.9%, while the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 7.8%. According to the 2021 Census, the 75 to 84 age group has increased from 4.3% to 5.7% of the population, whereas the 25 to 34 age group has decreased from 9.9% to 7.8%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Emerald-Cockatoo's age profile will change significantly. The 75 to 84 age cohort is projected to grow by 59%, adding 649 residents to reach 1,743. Residents aged 65 and older are expected to represent 72% of the population growth. Conversely, population declines are anticipated for the 0-4 and 25-34 age groups.