Emerald - Cockatoo
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Emerald - Cockatoo reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Emerald - Cockatoo's population was approximately 19,013 as of August 2025, according to AreaSearch's analysis. This figure represents an increase of 380 people from the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 18,633. The change is inferred from ABS's estimated resident population of 18,958 in June 2024 and an additional 57 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 51 persons per square kilometer. Natural growth contributed approximately 55.9% to overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on the latest population numbers, the area is expected to grow by approximately 1,184 persons by 2041, indicating a total increase of around 5.9% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Emerald - Cockatoo, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Emerald - Cockatoo has recorded approximately 30 residential properties granted approval annually. Development approval data from the ABS shows 153 homes approved over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, with two already approved in FY26. On average, 0.8 people moved to the area per dwelling built over these five years. This suggests supply meets or exceeds demand, offering more buyer choices and potential population growth above projections.

The average construction value of new properties is $847,000, indicating a focus on the premium market segment. In FY26, commercial development approvals totalled $53.8 million, reflecting high local commercial activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Emerald - Cockatoo has significantly less development activity, 85.0% below the regional average per person. This scarcity may strengthen demand and prices for existing properties. Recent construction comprises 84.0% standalone homes and 16.0% medium-high density housing, maintaining the area's traditional low-density character appealing to families seeking space. This shift from the current 99.0% houses reflects decreasing developable sites and changing lifestyles needing diverse affordable housing options.

With an estimated 680 people per dwelling approval, future projections show Emerald - Cockatoo adding 1,129 residents by 2041. Current construction levels should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth exceeding current forecasts.

Emerald - Cockatoo has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

The performance of an area can significantly be influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified a total of 13 projects that are expected to impact the area. Notable projects include the Pakenham East Precinct Structure Plan, Arbor Officer, Golden Win Estate (formerly Starling Road Residential Subdivision), and Ridgelea Estate - Pakenham East. The following list details those projects likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Employment performance in Emerald - Cockatoo ranks among the strongest 15% of areas evaluated nationally

Emerald-Cockatoo has a skilled workforce with notable representation in the construction sector. As of June 2025, its unemployment rate is 2.3%, with an estimated employment growth of 4.1% over the past year.

Residents' participation in the labour force is at 66.4%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. The dominant employment sectors are construction, health care & social assistance, and education & training. Construction stands out with employment levels at 1.8 times the regional average, while professional & technical services have limited presence at 6.2% compared to the regional 10.1%. Over a 12-month period ending in June 2025, Emerald-Cockatoo saw employment increase by 4.1%, with labour force growth of 4.4%.

This resulted in an unemployment rate rise of 0.3 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 3.5% and a 0.5 percentage point rise in unemployment. As of September 2025, Victoria's employment grew by 1.08% year-on-year, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%. Nationally, the unemployment rate was 4.5%, and employment growth outpaced the national average of 0.26%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Emerald-Cockatoo's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.2%% over five years and 12.9% over ten years, though these are simple weighted extrapolations for illustrative purposes only.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows Emerald - Cockatoo's median income among taxpayers was $54,011 with an average of $73,210. This is high nationally compared to Greater Melbourne's median of $54,892 and average of $73,761. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.11% since financial year 2022, estimated incomes as of March 2025 would be approximately $59,472 (median) and $80,612 (average). According to the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes in Emerald - Cockatoo cluster around the 69th percentile nationally. The earnings profile shows that 35.7% of residents (6,787 people) fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket, mirroring the surrounding region where 32.8% occupy this bracket. Economic strength is evident with 30.3% of households achieving high weekly earnings exceeding $3,000, supporting elevated consumer spending. After housing costs, residents retain 86.8% of income, reflecting strong purchasing power and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Emerald - Cockatoo is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Emerald - Cockatoo's dwelling structure in its latest Census evaluation comprised 99.2% houses and 0.9% other dwellings. In comparison, Melbourne metro had 91.1% houses and 8.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Emerald - Cockatoo was 35.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 56.9% and rented ones at 7.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,980, higher than Melbourne metro's $1,866. The median weekly rent figure was $370 compared to Melbourne metro's $361. Nationally, Emerald - Cockatoo's mortgage repayments were higher at $1,980 versus the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were lower at $370 against the national figure of $375.

Emerald - Cockatoo features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 82.0% of all households, including 43.5% couples with children, 29.0% couples without children, and 8.9% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 18.0%, with lone person households at 16.3% and group households comprising 1.7%. The median household size is 2.9 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.8.

The educational profile of Emerald - Cockatoo exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates at 23.6%, significantly lower than the Greater Melbourne average of 37.0%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 16.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.3%) and graduate diplomas (3.2%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 41.3% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas (12.9%) and certificates (28.4%).

Educational participation is high at 31.5%, including 11.3% in primary education, 9.6% in secondary education, and 4.1% pursuing tertiary education. There are seven schools operating within Emerald - Cockatoo, educating approximately 2,226 students. The educational mix includes five primary, one secondary, and one K-12 school. School places per 100 residents (11.7) fall below the regional average (16.5), with some students likely attending schools in adjacent areas. Emerald - Cockatoo demonstrates typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1036) with balanced educational opportunities.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Emerald-Cockatoo has 82 active public transport stops operating, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 9 different routes that together facilitate 1,125 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility to these services is rated as limited, with residents generally situated 1375 meters away from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 160 trips per day across all routes, which translates to approximately 13 weekly trips per individual stop.

Emerald - Cockatoo's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low across both younger and older age cohorts

Emerald - Cockatoo residents had a relatively low prevalence of common health conditions across both younger and older age groups as of [2016](https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/mf/3301.0). The rate of private health cover was very high at approximately 56% of the total population (~10,647 people), compared to 51.6% across Greater Melbourne in [2018](https://www.humanservices.gov.au/individuals/services/medicare/private-health-insurance).

Mental health issues and asthma were the most common medical conditions, affecting 8.7 and 8.3% of residents respectively, while 68.6% declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 70.3% across Greater Melbourne in [2014](https://www.vic.gov.au/health-and-aged-care/health-data-and-reports). The area had 18.0% of residents aged 65 and over (3,418 people), higher than the 13.7% in Greater Melbourne as of [2016](https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/mf/3301.0). Health outcomes among seniors were particularly strong, performing even better than the general population in health metrics.

Emerald - Cockatoo is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Emerald-Cockatoo, as per the census conducted on 9 August 2016, showed cultural diversity levels below average. Of its population, 85.3% were born in Australia, with 89.5% being citizens and 95.3% speaking English only at home. Christianity was found to be the predominant religion, making up 35.6% of Emerald-Cockatoo's population.

However, Judaism showed an overrepresentation, comprising 0.2% compared to the region's average of 0.1%. Regarding ancestry (country of birth of parents), English topped at 30.8%, followed by Australian at 30.0%, and Scottish at 8.1%. Notably, Dutch, Hungarian, and Welsh ethnicities were overrepresented in Emerald-Cockatoo compared to regional averages: Dutch at 3.1% vs 2.6%, Hungarian at 0.5% vs 0.4%, and Welsh at 0.7% vs 0.5%.

Emerald - Cockatoo's median age exceeds the national pattern

Emerald - Cockatoo's median age is 41 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and slightly older than Australia's median of 38 years. In comparison to Greater Melbourne's average, the 55-64 age cohort is notably over-represented in Emerald - Cockatoo at 13.9%, while the 25-34 year-olds are under-represented at 7.8%. According to the 2021 Census, the 75-84 age group has increased from 4.3% to 5.7% of the population. Conversely, the 25-34 age cohort has decreased from 9.9% to 7.8%. Demographic modeling indicates that Emerald - Cockatoo's age profile will change significantly by 2041. The 75-84 age group is projected to grow by 60%, adding 651 residents to reach 1,743. Residents aged 65 and older are expected to represent 71% of the population growth. However, population declines are anticipated for the 25-34 and 0-4 age cohorts.