Narre Warren - North East

Narre Warren - North East is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

Narre Warren - North East's population, as of February 2026, is approximately 13,655. This figure represents an increase of 151 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 13,504. The growth is inferred from ABS estimated resident population data of 13,643 as of June 2024 and additional validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 2,803 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile relative to other locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed approximately 54.9% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered, it utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends suggest lower quartile growth, with the area expected to expand by 364 persons to 2041 based on latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a total gain of 2.6% over the 17-year period.

The level of residential development activity in Narre Warren - North East is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Narre Warren - North East averaged around 10 new dwelling approvals per year between FY21 and FY25. A total of 51 homes were approved over these five financial years, with an additional 3 approved so far in FY26. The population has fallen during this period, yet housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, resulting in a well-balanced market with good buyer choice.

New properties are constructed at an average expected cost of $438,000, slightly above the regional average, indicating a focus on quality developments. This financial year, $492,000 in commercial approvals have been registered, suggesting a predominantly residential focus. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Narre Warren - North East has significantly less development activity, with 88.0% below the regional average per person. This scarcity typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties. Activity is also lower than nationally, reflecting market maturity and possible development constraints.

Recent building activity consists entirely of detached houses, sustaining the area's suburban identity with a concentration of family homes suited to buyers seeking space. With around 1535 people per dwelling approval, Narre Warren - North East reflects a highly mature market. By 2041, the area is expected to grow by 352 residents according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Narre Warren - North East has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 28thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 13 projects likely affecting the region. Notable initiatives include Narre Warren Central, Westfield Fountain Gate Ongoing Development, Narre Warren Police Station Upgrade, and Clyde Creek North Secondary School. The following details projects of particular relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Narre Warren - North East has seen below average employment performance when compared to national benchmarks

Narre Warren - North East has a skilled workforce with the construction sector prominently represented. Its unemployment rate was 5.1% in September 2025, slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's 4.7%. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 4.3%.

As of September 2025, 7,658 residents were employed. Workforce participation was similar to Greater Melbourne's 71.0%. A moderate 21.6% of residents worked from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Leading employment industries among residents include health care & social assistance, construction, and manufacturing.

Manufacturing is notably concentrated with levels at 1.7 times the regional average. Professional & technical services have a limited presence with 6.0% employment compared to the regional average of 10.1%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities based on Census data comparing working population to resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 4.3%, labour force grew by 4.5%, resulting in a slight rise in unemployment of 0.1 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment grow by 3.0% with the labour force increasing by 3.3%, and unemployment rising by 0.3 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia (May-25) project national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Narre Warren - North East's industry mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 12.9% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes only.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

Narre Warren - North East SA2 has an income level below the national average, according to AreaSearch aggregated ATO data for financial year 2023. The median income among taxpayers is $53,330, with an average income of $62,386. For Greater Melbourne, these figures are $57,688 and $75,164 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $57,730 (median) and $67,533 (average). According to the 2021 Census, household income ranks at the 60th percentile ($1,920 weekly), while personal income is at the 42nd percentile. The predominant income cohort spans 39.2% of locals (5,352 people) in the $1,500 - 2,999 category, similar to the surrounding region's 32.8%. After housing costs, 85.5% of income remains for other expenses. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Narre Warren - North East is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Narre Warren - North East's dwellings were predominantly houses at 97.4% in the latest Census, with other types such as semi-detached, apartments, and 'other' dwellings making up 2.7%. This is compared to Melbourne metro's figures of 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Narre Warren - North East stood at 28.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 49.8% and rented ones at 21.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, lower than Melbourne metro's $2,000. Median weekly rent in the area was $370, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Narre Warren - North East's mortgage repayments were below the Australian average of $1,863 and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Narre Warren - North East features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 81.9 percent of all households, including 44.7 percent that are couples with children, 23.1 percent that are couples without children, and 12.8 percent that are single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 18.1 percent, with lone person households at 16.1 percent and group households comprising 2.0 percent of the total. The median household size is 3.0 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Educational attainment in Narre Warren - North East aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 22.4%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 15.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.7%) and graduate diplomas (2.0%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 35.5% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.5%) and certificates (24.0%). Educational participation is high at 30.9%, with 10.2% in primary education, 8.7% in secondary education, and 5.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 30.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.2% in primary education, 8.7% in secondary education, and 5.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Narre Warren - North East has 43 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by three different routes that together offer 473 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is considered good, with residents typically living 221 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outwards, and cars remain the primary mode of transportation at 92%. On average, there are 1.8 vehicles per dwelling, which is higher than the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, 21.6% of residents work from home, a figure that may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

The service frequency averages 67 trips per day across all routes, resulting in approximately 11 weekly trips per individual stop.

Narre Warren - North East's residents are extremely healthy with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Narre Warren - North East. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence were low, particularly among younger cohorts. Approximately 50% (~6,882 people) had private health cover, compared to 56.7% in Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions were asthma (8.0%) and mental health issues (7.2%). 72.3% declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, similar to Greater Melbourne's 72.6%. Health outcomes among the working-age population were typical. The area had 13.4% (1,836 people) aged 65 and over, lower than Greater Melbourne's 15.1%, but still ranked lower nationally compared to the broader population.

Narre Warren - North East is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Narre Warren - North East has a high level of cultural diversity, with 37.4% of its population born overseas and 37.2% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Narre Warren - North East, comprising 47.2% of its population. Islam is overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne, making up 9.3% of the population in Narre Warren - North East versus 5.6%.

The top three ancestry groups are Other at 20.3%, Australian at 19.3%, and English at 18.6%. Notably, Hungarian is overrepresented at 0.8%, Sri Lankan at 1.5%, and Serbian at 1.0% compared to regional averages of 0.3%, 0.8%, and 0.4% respectively.

Narre Warren - North East's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Narre Warren - North East's median age in 2021 was 36 years, nearly matching Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years. This is modestly under the Australian median age of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Narre Warren - North East had a higher percentage of residents aged 55-64 (13.4%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (13.8%). Between the 2016 and 2021 censuses, the age group 65 to 74 grew from 6.7% to 8.4%, while the 45 to 54 cohort declined from 14.2% to 13.0%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests significant changes in Narre Warren - North East's age profile. The 65 to 74 cohort is projected to grow by 27%, adding 306 residents to reach a total of 1,448. Residents aged 65 and above are expected to drive 73% of population growth. Conversely, the 15 to 24 and 25 to 34 age groups are projected to experience population declines.