Narre Warren - North East

Narre Warren - North East is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

Narre Warren - North East's population was around 13,618 as of May 2026. This showed an increase of 114 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 13,504. The change was inferred from ABS' estimated resident population of 13,618 in June 2025 and additional 14 validated new addresses post-Census. This resulted in a density ratio of 2,796 persons per square kilometer, placing it among the upper quartile relative to other locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed approximately 57.6% of overall population gains recently.

AreaSearch adopted ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered, AreaSearch used VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted via weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group were applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future trends suggest lower quartile growth, with the area expected to expand by 390 persons to 2041 based on latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a total gain of 2.9% over the 16 years.

The level of residential development activity in Narre Warren - North East is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Narre Warren - North East averaged approximately 10 new dwelling approvals per year. Between FY21 and FY25, 51 homes were approved, with an additional 6 approved in FY26 to date. Despite a decrease in population during this period, the housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, resulting in a balanced market with good buyer choice.

The average construction cost value of new properties is $438,000, slightly above the regional average, indicating a focus on quality developments. In FY26, commercial approvals totaled $492,000, suggesting a predominantly residential focus. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Narre Warren - North East has significantly less development activity, with 88.0% below the regional average per person. This scarcity typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties. Nationally, development activity is also lower, reflecting market maturity and possible development constraints.

Recent building activity consists entirely of detached houses, sustaining the area's suburban identity with a concentration of family homes suited to buyers seeking space. With approximately 1535 people per dwelling approval, Narre Warren - North East reflects a highly mature market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, the area is expected to grow by 390 residents through to 2041. Current construction rates appear balanced with future demand, fostering steady market conditions without excessive price pressure.

Narre Warren - North East has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 29thth percentile nationally

Infrastructure changes significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 13 projects likely impacting the region. Key projects include Narre Warren Central, Westfield Fountain Gate Ongoing Development, Narre Warren Police Station Upgrade, and Clyde Creek North Secondary School. The following list details those most relevant:.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Narre Warren - North East has seen below average employment performance when compared to national benchmarks

Narre Warren - North East has a skilled workforce with notable representation in the construction sector. The unemployment rate was 5.2% as of an unspecified past year. In December 2025, 7,727 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 5.2%, which is 0.4% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%.

Workforce participation was 73.3%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 69.9%. According to Census responses, 21.6% of residents worked from home. Leading employment industries were health care & social assistance, construction, and manufacturing. Manufacturing had particularly notable concentration with employment levels at 1.7 times the regional average.

Professional & technical services had limited presence with 6.0% employment compared to 10.1% regionally. The area appeared to offer limited local employment opportunities based on Census data. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment levels increased by 4.3%, labour force increased by 4.6%, resulting in an unemployment rise of 0.3 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment rise by 2.4% during the same period. National employment forecasts from May-25 suggest national employment should expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Narre Warren - North East's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 12.9% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

Narre Warren - North East SA2's median income among taxpayers was $53,330 and average income was $62,386 in financial year 2023. These figures are below Greater Melbourne's median of $57,688 and average of $75,164 respectively. By March 2026, estimates suggest the median income will be approximately $58,460 and average income will be around $68,388, accounting for a 9.62% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2023. According to 2021 Census figures, household income ranks at the 60th percentile ($1,920 weekly) and personal income sits at the 42nd percentile. The predominant income cohort spans 39.2% of locals (5,338 people), falling within the $1,500 - 2,999 range. After housing costs, 85.5% of income remains for other expenses. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Narre Warren - North East is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Narre Warren - North East's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 97.4% houses and 2.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Narre Warren - North East stood at 28.7%, with the rest being mortgaged (49.8%) or rented (21.4%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, lower than Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. Median weekly rent in Narre Warren - North East was $370, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, mortgage repayments were below the Australian average of $1,863 and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Narre Warren - North East features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 81.9% of all households, including 44.7% couples with children, 23.1% couples without children, and 12.8% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 18.1%, consisting of 16.1% lone person households and 2.0% group households. The median household size is 3.0 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Educational attainment in Narre Warren - North East aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 22.4%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 15.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.7%) and graduate diplomas (2.0%). Vocational credentials are held by 35.5% of residents aged 15 and above, with advanced diplomas at 11.5% and certificates at 24.0%. Educational participation is high, with 30.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 10.2% in primary education, 8.7% in secondary education, and 5.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Narre Warren - North East has 43 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by three different routes that together facilitate 473 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents on average located 221 meters from the nearest transport stop. Most residents commute outward due to its residential nature. Cars remain the primary mode of transportation, used by 92% of residents. On average, there are 1.8 vehicles per dwelling, which is higher than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 21.6% of residents work from home, a figure that may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency averages 67 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 11 weekly trips per individual stop.

Narre Warren - North East's residents are extremely healthy with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Narre Warren - North East. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence were found to be low, particularly among younger cohorts. Private health cover was relatively low at approximately 50% of the total population (~6,863 people), compared to 56.7% across Greater Melbourne and 55.7% nationally.

The most common medical conditions were asthma (8.0%) and mental health issues (7.2%). 72.3% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, similar to the 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among the working-age population were broadly typical. The area has 13.4% of residents aged 65 and over (1,830 people), lower than the 15.0% in Greater Melbourne but ranking lower nationally than the broader population.

Narre Warren - North East is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Narre Warren - North East has a high level of cultural diversity, with 37.4% of its population born overseas and 37.2% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Narre Warren - North East, comprising 47.2% of the population. However, Islam is notably overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne, making up 9.3% of Narre Warren - North East's population versus 5.6%.

The top three ancestry groups are Other (20.3%), Australian (19.3%), and English (18.6%). Notably, Hungarian, Sri Lankan, and Serbian ethnicities are overrepresented in Narre Warren - North East compared to regional averages: Hungarian at 0.8% versus 0.3%, Sri Lankan at 1.5% versus 0.8%, and Serbian at 1.0% versus 0.4%.

Narre Warren - North East's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Narre Warren - North East's median age is nearly 36 years, close to Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years, which is slightly below Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Narre Warren - North East has a higher proportion of residents aged 55-64 (13.2%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (14.3%). Between the 2021 Census and the present, the percentage of the population aged 65 to 74 has increased from 6.7% to 8.3%, while the proportion of those aged 45 to 54 has decreased from 14.2% to 12.9%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests significant changes in Narre Warren - North East's age profile. The 65 to 74 cohort is projected to grow by 27%, adding 308 residents to reach a total of 1,437. Residents aged 65 and above are expected to drive 73% of population growth, indicating demographic aging trends. Conversely, the 15 to 24 and 25 to 34 age groups are projected to experience population declines.