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This analysis uses ABS Statistical Areas Level 2 (SA2) boundaries, which can materially differ from Suburbs and Localities (SAL) even when sharing similar names.
SA2 boundaries are defined by the Australian Bureau of Statistics and are designed to represent communities for statistical reporting (e.g., census and ERP).
Suburbs and Localities (SAL) represent commonly-used suburb/locality names (postal-style areas) and may use different geographic boundaries. For comprehensive analysis, consider reviewing both boundary types if available.
est. as @ -- *
ABS ERP | -- people | --
2021 Census | -- people
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Narre Warren - North East has an estimated 13,618 residents, up from 13,504 at the 2021 Census. That puts 2,796 residents on each square kilometre. Population is estimated from ABS Estimated Resident Population releases and GNAF address data, re-based from the 2021 Census and updated annually.
Detail
According to research conducted by AreaSearch, the resident population of Narre Warren - North East stands at roughly 13,618 as of Aug 2026. This represents an addition of 114 people (0.8%) compared to the 2021 Census, when the count was 13,504 people. Such figures are derived from the ABS estimated resident population of 13,618 as of June 2025 alongside 12 validated new addresses recorded since the Census date. With a density of 2,796 persons per square kilometer, the locality ranks within the upper quartile among nationwide areas reviewed by AreaSearch.
Inbound overseas migration has served as the core engine of demographic expansion, generating around 57.6% of recent population gains. Projections compiled by the ABS/Geoscience Australia, issued in 2024 with 2022 serving as the baseline, form the foundation of AreaSearch's SA2 modeling. Where these are unavailable, Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 by the VIC State Government are utilized, using weighted aggregation methods to translate LGA growth to the SA2 tier, with age-group growth rates applied across all territories from 2032 to 2041. Future demographic expansion for the area is expected to sit in the lower quartile nationally, gaining an estimated 402 persons to 2041 under current annual ERP metrics, which equates to an overall growth rate of 3.0% over the 16 years.
Frequently Asked Questions - Population
50 new dwellings have been approved in Narre Warren - North East over the past five years, an average of 10 a year. That is 0.7 approvals per 1,000 residents. Figures come from ABS building approvals aggregated to this SA2 boundary and are updated monthly as the ABS releases them.
Detail
Over the past 5 financial years, residential building approvals in Narre Warren - North East have averaged approximately 10 new homes per annum, reaching a total of 50 homes. Although demographic contraction occurred, housing supply has adequately satisfied market demand to maintain balanced conditions and sound buyer choice, with newly approved dwellings carrying an average construction value of $510,000. Additionally, commercial building approvals reached $492,000 this financial year, underscoring the distinctly residential character of the suburb. New construction activity in Narre Warren - North East tracks substantially below the wider metropolitan benchmark, sitting 87.0% below regional average per person compared to Greater Melbourne.
While this low volume of building work highlights planning constraints and the established character of the area, it typically underpins local demand and supports established property values. Dwelling approvals are tracking significantly under the national average, registering approximately 1825 people per dwelling approval. Furthermore, recent residential approvals have consisted entirely of detached houses, reinforcing the suburban profile of the market with family residences tailored to buyers desiring space. Projections from the most recent AreaSearch quarterly estimate indicate that Narre Warren - North East will add 402 residents through to 2041. Ongoing residential construction volumes appear well aligned with future demographic requirements, helping preserve balanced conditions without driving excessive price escalation.
Frequently Asked Questions - Development
Development applications around Narre Warren - North East
SOURCE: Planning portals and council registers, compiled by AreaSearch. Distance & bearing measured from the suburb midpoint.
AreaSearch tracks one current infrastructure or development project inside Narre Warren - North East, worth an estimated $8 million. A further 69 sit in the immediately surrounding suburbs, taking the tracked pipeline within reach of the area to $13.1 billion. 18 are already under construction and 23 are due for completion within three years. The pipeline spans residential development, communities, precincts & urban renewal and transport & logistics. Records are compiled from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, council planning portals and public announcements, reviewed and updated daily, then ranked by proximity, construction stage, completion horizon and project scale.
Detail
Urban development and capital works play a decisive role in shaping local community outcomes. AreaSearch has pinpointed 13 projects expected to influence Narre Warren - North East, prominently featuring Narre Warren Central, Westfield Fountain Gate Ongoing Development, Narre Warren Police Station Upgrade, and Clyde Creek North Secondary School.
Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.
INFRASTRUCTURE SEARCH
Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.
Frequently Asked Questions - Infrastructure
Narre Warren Central
State-of-the-art Large Format Retail (LFR) centre with 17,000 square metres of elevated retail spaces in a landscaped environment. Features flexible tenancies from 300 to 3,500 square metres for retail and allied health needs, with proximity to Westfield Fountain Gate in Melbourne's fastest growing suburb. Development includes convenience restaurants and restricted retail premises with reduced parking requirements.
Hallam Healthcare Precinct
An integrated $170 million healthcare precinct development featuring a 90-suite residential aged care extension (expanding site total to 270 beds), a day surgery hospital with three operating theatres, a 10-GP medical centre, health spa, 160-place early learning centre, commercial health club, and aquatic centre.
Casey Green Estate
Master-planned residential estate in Melbourne's southeast featuring over 1,300 high-quality homes across five distinct neighbourhoods on 20 hectares. N3 and N4 are completed with modern family-friendly housing; N1 and N2 Vista offer architecturally designed apartments and multi-level homes in an ecologically protected setting with construction commenced; N5 Deblin will deliver a mix of houses, apartments and retirement living. Upon completion, residents will enjoy a swimming pool, multipurpose hall, childcare centre, medical suite, convenience store and cafe, plus two expansive parks connected by landscaped footpaths.Located 500m from Narre Warren train station and close to Westfield Fountain Gate.
Narre Warren Village Urban Design Framework
Comprehensive urban design framework to revitalize Narre Warren Village center with improved streetscapes, mixed-use development opportunities, enhanced connectivity, improved public spaces, and community gathering spaces.
Berwick Waterways Precinct Structure Plan
Masterplanned residential community guided by the approved Precinct Structure Plan. The precinct will deliver around 1,000 homes, a local town centre with supermarket, shops and offices, parks, wetlands, roads and supporting community infrastructure. The planning framework remains active with amended Development Contributions Plan provisions and development continuing across the precinct.
Fountain Gate Activity Centre Revitalisation
Comprehensive revitalisation of the Narre Warren Metropolitan Activity Centre. Key current activity includes the 50 million dollar Fountain Gate Central retail development at the former Bunnings site, featuring 14,300 sqm of retail space for major anchors like Supercheap Auto and Rebel Sport. The broader long-term vision guided by the City of Casey focus on high-density mixed-use growth, improved transport connectivity, and sustainable urban infrastructure around Australia's second-largest shopping centre.
Berwick Springs Wetlands Reserve Playground Renewals
Comprehensive playground renewal program including new district-level playground at Moondarra Drive and upgrades to West Reserve playground. Features nature-themed towers, picnic facilities, and improved accessibility.
Max Pawsey Reserve Master Plan
20-year master plan for the staged upgrade and renewal of the 11-hectare Max Pawsey Reserve district sporting precinct. The updated master plan was adopted by City of Casey in September 2024 following a statutory four-year review. Major works include upgraded sporting facilities, new tennis pavilion, playground and expanded car park, improved pathways, wetlands, female-friendly amenities and supporting infrastructure. The playground and car park redevelopment is under construction, with additional master plan projects to be delivered in stages over the life of the plan.
7,792 residents of Narre Warren - North East are employed, from a labour force of 8,192. Unemployment sits at 4.9%, with participation at 73.6%. Weighted for its industry mix, the area's sectors are forecast to grow about 6.1% nationally over five years. That reflects industry composition only and makes no allowance for local population growth. The working-day population is estimated at 10,037, about 74% of the resident population, so more people leave the area for work than travel in. Unemployment and labour force come from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, updated quarterly; the industry and occupation profile is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
A skilled local workforce defines Narre Warren - North East, where the construction sector demonstrates substantial representation, the local unemployment rate sits at 4.9%, and annual employment growth reached an estimated 4.8% over the past year. Employed residents numbered 7,792 as of March 2026, while the jobless rate was 0.1% above Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%. The local labor force participation rate stands at 73.6% compared to Greater Melbourne's 70.1%. Census records show 21.6% of working residents operated from home, a figure influenced by Covid-19 lockdown restrictions. Health care & social assistance, construction, and manufacturing represent the primary employment sectors for local workers.
Manufacturing exhibits strong concentration in the area, generating an employment share 1.7 times the regional level. Conversely, professional & technical roles account for only 6.0% employment in contrast to 10.1% regionally. Because the suburb is largely residential, local job availability remains relatively constrained, as shown by comparing the Census working population against the resident count. AreaSearch assessment of ABS and SALM figures shows that over the 12-month period, local employment expanded by 4.8% while the labor pool grew by 4.4%, leading to a decrease of 0.3 percentage points in the unemployment rate. Over the identical timeframe, Greater Melbourne saw employment rise by 2.1% and the labor force increase by 2.3%, alongside an increase of 0.2 percentage points in unemployment. National outlooks from Jobs and Skills Australia as of Mar-26 provide additional context on future demand across Narre Warren - North East. Nationally, employment is projected to rise by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, though sector trajectory varies. Weighting these industry projections against the local job composition indicates expected employment growth of 6.1% over five years and 12.9% over ten years (note that this weighting extrapolation is illustrative and excludes local population projections).
Frequently Asked Questions - Employment
Median household income in Narre Warren - North East is $1,920 a week (about $100,000 a year), with median personal income at $766 a week. ATO records put median taxable income at $53,330 a year against an average of $62,386. Household income is from the 2021 Census; taxable income is from ATO Taxation Statistics for the latest financial year available, indexed forward using the ABS Wage Price Index.
Detail
ATO taxpayer records for financial year 2023 at the postcode level indicate that Narre Warren - North East SA2 had a median income of $53,330 and an average income of $62,386, placing it below nationwide benchmarks and trailing Greater Melbourne's median of $57,688 and average of $75,164. Factoring in Wage Price Index gains of 9.62% since financial year 2023 brings updated estimates to approximately $58,460 (median) and $68,388 (average) as of March 2026. Based on Census findings, household earnings reach the 60th percentile ($1,920 weekly), whereas individual earnings sit at the 42nd percentile.
The largest income bracket captures 39.2% of locals (5,338 people) earning between $1,500 - 2,999, mirroring the wider regional proportion of 32.8%. Residents retain 85.5% of income after servicing housing costs, and the area occupies the 5th decile on the SEIFA income index.
Frequently Asked Questions - Income
Narre Warren - North East had 4,358 occupied dwellings at the 2021 Census, 97% detached houses and 1% apartments. 50% are owned with a mortgage, 21% rented and 29% owned outright. At that Census the median rent was $370 a week and the median mortgage repayment $1,733 a month. Rent absorbs 19.3% of household income here and mortgage repayments 20.8%. Dwelling stock, tenure and housing costs are 2021 Census measures — the only source that counts dwellings at this boundary size.
Detail
Census data reveals that standalone houses made up 97.4% of dwellings across Narre Warren - North East, with semi-detached structures, apartments, and other housing formats constituting 2.7%, in contrast to 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings across Melbourne metro. Outright property ownership in Narre Warren - North East reached 28.7%, trailing Melbourne metro, while mortgaged properties accounted for 49.8% and rented homes accounted for 21.4%. Median monthly mortgage costs were $1,733, falling below both the Melbourne metro benchmark of $2,000 and the Australian average of $1,863. The local median weekly rent of $370 was also lower than the Melbourne metro figure of $390 and the national figure of $375.
Frequently Asked Questions - Housing
Narre Warren - North East counted 4,358 households at the 2021 Census, averaging 3.0 people each. 45% are couples with children, more than in 88% of areas nationally, against 23% couples without children. 16% of households are people living alone, and families average 1.6 children. Household and family composition is measured only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Family units constitute the vast majority of local households at 81.9%, broken down into couples with children (44.7%), couples without children (23.1%), and single parent families (12.8%). The remaining 18.1% comprises non-family households, including lone person households at 16.1% and group households at 2.0%. An average household size of 3.0 people exceeds the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.
Frequently Asked Questions - Households
22.4% of adults in Narre Warren - North East hold a university qualification, including 15.7% with a bachelor degree and 4.7% with postgraduate qualifications. A further 24.0% hold a vocational qualification. 2 schools serve the area, with 1,321 enrolment places and an average ICSEA of 1,022 against a national benchmark of 1,000. Qualifications come from the 2021 Census; school enrolments, ICSEA and results come from ACARA's current release.
Detail
Tertiary qualification levels present an area for potential growth, as 22.4% of residents hold university qualifications compared to the Greater Melbourne average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees represent the most common higher education credential at 15.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 4.7% and graduate diplomas at 2.0%. Vocational training constitutes a key educational pillar, with 35.5% of residents aged 15+ possessing vocational credentials, including 11.5% with advanced diplomas and 24.0% holding certificates. Formal learning engagement remains strong across the community, with 30.9% of the local population actively enrolled in an educational program.
Broken down by level, 10.2% attend primary education, 8.7% are enrolled in secondary education, and 5.2% are engaged in tertiary education.
Frequently Asked Questions - Education
Schools Detail
Public transport in Narre Warren - North East reaches 43 stops on 3 routes, timetabled for about 1,600 services a week. The typical home sits about 220 m from its nearest stop. Buses carry the largest share of public transport commuters. Households keep an average of 1.8 vehicles. Stop and service counts are built from operators' published GTFS timetables and refresh with each timetable release; vehicle ownership is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
Public transit across Narre Warren - North East is supported by 43 active transport stops served exclusively by buses across 3 individual routes, delivering 1,559 weekly passenger trips. Stop accessibility is favorable, with residents living an average of 221 meters from their nearest boarding point. Due to the area's suburban profile, outward commuting is standard, and private vehicles remain the dominant travel method at 92%, supported by a vehicle ownership rate of 1.8 per dwelling that exceeds regional norms. Census data from 2021 showed 21.6% of workers worked from home, reflecting COVID-19 settings.
Bus transit networks in the area sustain an average volume of 222 trips per day across the network, which translates to roughly 36 weekly trips per individual stop.
Frequently Asked Questions - Transport
Transport Stops Detail
72.3% of residents in Narre Warren - North East report no long-term health condition, a healthier profile than 77% of areas nationally. 5.5% need daily assistance with core activities, and 50.4% hold private health cover. The standardised death rate runs at 3.7 per 1,000 residents. Health conditions, assistance needs and insurance are 2021 Census measures; the death rate comes from current ABS releases.
Detail
Health indicators in Narre Warren - North East reflect favorable conditions across chronic illness and mortality metrics, with younger demographics demonstrating particularly low incidence of routine ailments. Approximately 50% of the total population (~6,863 people) holds private health insurance, a rate that tracks below the Greater Melbourne level of 56.7% and the national average of 55.7%. Among reported health conditions, asthma and mental health disorders were the most prevalent, impacting 8.0 and 7.2% of residents respectively, whereas 72.3% of the community reported having no long-term medical conditions, comparable to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne.
Working-age residents display standard health outcomes. The community includes 1,862 people aged 65 and over, representing 13.7% of residents, which is below the 15.1% in Greater Melbourne and lower than national proportions.
Frequently Asked Questions - Health
37.4% of Narre Warren - North East residents were born overseas and 37.2% speak a language other than English at home, more culturally diverse than 81% of areas nationally. The largest reported ancestries are Australian (19.3%) and English (18.6%). Ancestry, language and country of birth are counted only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Cultural diversity is pronounced in Narre Warren - North East, where 37.4% of residents were born overseas and 37.2% use a language other than English in their households. Christianity is the primary faith, accounting for 47.2% of the local population. Adherents of Islam comprise 9.3% of residents, representing a notable overrepresentation compared to 5.6% across Greater Melbourne. Analysis of parental ancestry reveals that Other forms the largest cohort at 20.3%, exceeding the regional benchmark of 14.6%, followed by Australian ancestry at 19.3% and English ancestry at 18.6%. Distinct local concentrations are evident across specific backgrounds, with Hungarian ancestry comprising 0.8% of Narre Warren - North East (vs 0.3% regionally), Sri Lankan ancestry making up 1.5% (vs 0.8%), and Serbian ancestry representing 1.0% (vs 0.4%).
Frequently Asked Questions - Diversity
The median resident of Narre Warren - North East is 36. 28.4% of residents are aged 15 to 34. Age cohorts are not raw Census counts: the Census split is re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections.
Detail
Age distributions in Narre Warren - North East closely mirror metropolitan patterns, remaining within 4.0 percentage points of Greater Melbourne in every major age bracket. The estimated median age of 36 matches the 2021 Census level and is 1 year younger than the Greater Melbourne figure of 37 from that Census. The most noticeable demographic shift since the Census occurred among the 65+ cohort, which expanded from 11.3% to an estimated 13.7% of the population. Seniors and retirees are projected to lead future growth through to 2041, increasing by 684 (37%) to 2,547, whereas young adults, children, and early-to-mid career age groups are forecast to decline.
Frequently Asked Questions - Age
Data & MethodBoundaries, Sources & Method for Narre Warren - North East
8 of 14 data sections on this page were updated within the last 12 months — the newest current to Sep 2026.
Everything is aggregated to the SA2 boundary shown above, on a 2021 Census baseline. Only 3 sections — housing, households and cultural diversity — still wait on the 2026 Census.
The ledger — source, cycle and currency by section
| Section | Source & update cycle | Currency |
|---|---|---|
| Updated within the last 12 months 8 sections | ||
| Population | ABS, GNAF, Geoscience Australia Annual (ABS ERP) | Aug 2026 2 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release) and updated with new dwellings from GNAF address data. Current to Aug 2026, with the 2021 Census supplying the small-area baseline. | ||
| Age profile | ABS, Geoscience Australia, State governments Annual | Aug 2026 2 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Age cohorts are re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections, current to Aug 2026. Each cohort is held as a Census baseline and a current estimate. | ||
| Development & approvals | ABS, GNAF Monthly (ABS approvals) | Aug 2026 2 months ago headline measures · Jul 2026 baseline |
| Property sales & rents | Valuer General, Rental Board, ABS Weekly sales, quarterly rents | Sep 2026 last month all 21 measures |
| Sales from the state Valuer General register, refreshed weekly, and rents from quarterly rental bond lodgements. Both are read live each time this page loads, current to Sep 2026. | ||
| Employment | ABS, DEWR, JSA Quarterly (ABS SALM) | Mar 2026 7 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Unemployment and labour force from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, current to Mar 2026. The growth outlook applies Department of Employment (now Jobs and Skills Australia) forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to the local industry mix, so it measures sector composition rather than local expansion and makes no allowance for population growth. Job demand comes from the same agency via its Internet Vacancy Index; industry and occupation structure from the 2021 Census. | ||
| Education | ABS, ACARA Annual (ACARA) | Sep 2026 last month headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Transport | ABS, State Transport Departments Each timetable release | Jul 2026 3 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Services & amenities | Provider directories, ACECQA Continuous | Sep 2026 last month all 14 measures |
| Annual and financial-year sources 3 sections | ||
| Infrastructure projects | Infrastructure Australia, State agencies, Local governments Daily | Jul 2025 about a year ago all 1 projects tracked here |
| Project pipeline maintained continuously from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, local government and public announcements. Records are added and revised daily; this area was last updated Jul 2025. | ||
| Income | ABS, ATO Annual (ATO) | FY 2023 3 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| ATO taxable income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index. Census household income provides the distribution detail. | ||
| Health | ABS, ATO Annual | 2024 2 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Census-measured — next update: 2026 Census 3 sections No more current small-area source exists for these, so they are labelled as Census-measured rather than implied to be current. | ||
| Housing | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 30 measures |
| Households | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 18 measures |
| Cultural diversity | ABS, Geoscience Australia 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 44 measures |
"Currency" is the most recent release feeding that section. Where the Census supplies the structural baseline underneath a current headline figure, the row says so.
How the numbers are built
Population
The Census provides the small-area baseline, aggregated from mesh blocks to this boundary. It is then re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release), and new dwellings built since Census night are counted from address data — 12 validated new addresses here. The headline figure is therefore a current estimate for Aug 2026, not a 2021 count (13,504 at the 2021 Census → 13,618 now). Annual growth rates are compound (CAGR), not simple averages.
Age profile
Cohort shares are not raw Census counts. Every cohort is held as a pair — the Census baseline and a current estimate — and the split is re-based using ERP and state population projections, current to Aug 2026. Median age is the Census median plus modelled change since. Charts that show both are labelled "2021 Census vs Current Estimate".
Property sales
Sourced from the state valuation authority's sales register — current, not Census, and refreshed weekly. Medians are calculated from settled transactions in the period shown; periods with very low transaction counts are flagged or suppressed, because a handful of sales can move a median substantially.
Rents
Derived from state rental bond lodgement data, by dwelling type and bedroom count. Bonds are lodged at the start of a new tenancy, so this reflects new lettings, not the whole rented stock.
Development & infrastructure
Building approvals come from current ABS releases; development applications are collected from council and state planning portals; the infrastructure pipeline is compiled from Infrastructure Australia and local government sources. Applications are matched to this boundary by address or coordinates, so very recent lodgements may not yet appear.
Employment & income
Industry and occupation structure comes from the Census, but the headline labour-market indicators do not. Unemployment and labour force are derived from ABS Small Area Labour Markets (quarterly). The employment outlook applies Department of Employment forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to this area's own industry mix (the agency is now Jobs and Skills Australia), as does the Internet Vacancy Index used for job demand. Because it is weighted on industry composition alone, that outlook carries no allowance for local population growth — in fast-growing areas the real rise in local jobs will typically be higher. Income combines Census household income with ATO taxable-income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index.
Education, transport & amenities
School enrolments, ICSEA and performance come from ACARA's current release, not the Census. Public transport stops and service frequency are derived from GTFS timetable feeds published by state transport departments. Services and amenities are proximity and count scores built from provider directories, refreshed on their own cycle. The Census contributes only the travel-to-work and qualification measures.
Rankings and benchmarks. Where we rank this area, the comparison set is every area of the same boundary type — suburbs against suburbs, SA2s against SA2s. Benchmarks compare this area against its greater capital city region and the national figure for the same measure and period.
Limits worth knowing. Small areas carry larger error margins, and the ABS introduces small random adjustments to Census counts to protect confidentiality — so totals may not sum exactly. Estimates re-based from regional data describe the area's expected trajectory, not a direct count of it. Figures are indicative for research and are not financial, planning or valuation advice.
Cross-check us. The Census baseline for this boundary is at ABS 2021 Census QuickStats (212021455). QuickStats reports 2021 only — the figures on this page are more current wherever the ledger shows a later date.