Narre Warren - North East

Narre Warren - North East is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

Narre Warren - North East's population was around 13,655 as of Nov 2025. This showed an increase of 151 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 13,504 people. The change was inferred from ABS estimated resident population data of 13,643 in June 2024 and 13 validated new addresses after the Census date. This resulted in a density ratio of 2,803 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile nationally according to AreaSearch's assessment. Overseas migration contributed approximately 54.9% of overall population gains recently.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 adjusted to SA2 levels for areas not covered by the first data set. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas until 2041. Future trends anticipate lower quartile growth, with an expected expansion of 364 persons by 2041 based on latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a total gain of 2.6% over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Narre Warren - North East is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Narre Warren - North East averaged approximately 10 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, with a total of 51 homes approved. In FY-26, up until now, there have been 3 approvals. The population has decreased during this period, yet housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, resulting in a balanced market with varied buyer choices.

The average expected construction cost value for new properties is $438,000, slightly above the regional average, indicating a focus on quality developments. This financial year, commercial approvals totalled $492,000, suggesting a predominantly residential development focus. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Narre Warren - North East has significantly less development activity, with 88.0% below the regional average per person. This scarcity of new homes typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties. Similarly, when compared nationally, development activity is lower, reflecting market maturity and possible development constraints.

Recent building activity consists entirely of detached houses, sustaining the area's suburban identity with a concentration of family homes suited to buyers seeking space. With around 1535 people per dwelling approval, Narre Warren - North East reflects a highly mature market. Looking ahead, based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Narre Warren - North East is expected to grow by 352 residents through to 2041. Given current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Narre Warren - North East has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 40thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 13 projects that could affect this region. Notable projects include Narre Warren Central, Westfield Fountain Gate Ongoing Development, Narre Warren Police Station Upgrade, and Clyde Creek North Secondary School. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Narre Warren - North East has seen below average employment performance when compared to national benchmarks

Narre Warren - North East has a skilled workforce with the construction sector prominently represented. Its unemployment rate was 5.1% in September 2025, which is 0.4% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%.

Employment growth in the area over the past year was estimated at 4.3%. As of September 2025, 7,658 residents were employed. The leading employment industries among residents are health care & social assistance, construction, and manufacturing. Manufacturing has a notably high concentration with employment levels at 1.7 times the regional average.

Professional & technical services have limited presence, with only 6.0% of employment compared to the regional average of 10.1%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities as indicated by Census data on working population versus resident population. In the year to September 2025, employment levels in Narre Warren - North East increased by 4.3%, and labour force grew by 4.5%, leading to a slight rise in unemployment of 0.1 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment rise by 3.0% and the labour force grow by 3.3%, with unemployment rising by 0.3 percentage points. State-level data from 25-Nov shows Victoria's employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, adding 41,950 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%. This is compared to the national unemployment rate of 4.3%, and a national employment growth average of 0.14%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that national employment should expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Narre Warren - North East's employment mix, local employment is estimated to increase by 6.1% over five years and 12.9% over ten years. However, it should be noted that this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

Narre Warren - North East SA2 had an income level below the national average according to ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2022. The median income among taxpayers was $50,572 and the average income stood at $60,180, compared to Greater Melbourne's figures of $54,892 and $73,761 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, estimated incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $56,722 (median) and $67,498 (average). According to the 2021 Census, household income ranked at the 60th percentile ($1,920 weekly), while personal income sat at the 42nd percentile. The predominant income cohort was 39.2% of locals (5,352 people) in the $1,500 - 2,999 category, reflecting patterns seen in the surrounding region where 32.8% similarly occupied this range. After housing, 85.5% of income remained for other expenses and the area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 5th decile.

Narre Warren - North East is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

In Narre Warren - North East, as per the latest Census, 97.4% of dwellings were houses with the remaining 2.7% being semi-detached, apartments, or other types. This is in contrast to Melbourne metro's 88.1% houses and 11.8% other dwellings. Home ownership stood at 28.7%, lower than Melbourne metro's rate. Mortgaged dwellings were 49.8% and rented ones made up 21.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, below the Melbourne metro average of $1,900. The median weekly rent was $370, matching Melbourne metro's figure but lower than the national average of $375. Nationally, Narre Warren - North East's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863.

Narre Warren - North East features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 81.9% of all households, including 44.7% couples with children, 23.1% couples without children, and 12.8% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 18.1%, with lone person households at 16.1% and group households comprising 2.0%. The median household size is 3.0 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.9.

Educational attainment in Narre Warren - North East aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 22.4%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 15.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.7%) and graduate diplomas (2.0%). Vocational credentials are held by 35.5% of residents aged 15 and above, with advanced diplomas at 11.5% and certificates at 24.0%. Educational participation is high, with 30.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 10.2% in primary education, 8.7% in secondary education, and 5.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Narre Warren - North East has 44 active public transport stops. These are served by buses on three different routes. Together, these routes provide 708 weekly passenger trips.

Residents have good access to transport, with an average distance of 221 meters to the nearest stop. On average, there are 101 bus trips per day across all routes, which works out to about 16 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Narre Warren - North East is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Narre Warren - North East shows above-average health outcomes with a low prevalence of common health conditions among its general population. However, these conditions are higher than the national average among older and at-risk cohorts. Approximately 50% (~6,759 people) have private health cover, which is lower than Greater Melbourne's 53.6%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma (8.0%) and mental health issues (7.2%), with 72.3% reporting no medical ailments, compared to 72.0% in Greater Melbourne. The area has 12.8% of residents aged 65 and over (1,742 people), lower than Greater Melbourne's 15.7%.

Narre Warren - North East is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Narre Warren - North East has a high level of cultural diversity, with 37.4% of its population born overseas and 37.2% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the dominant religion in Narre Warren - North East, accounting for 47.2% of the population. However, Islam is overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne, comprising 9.3% versus 11.4%.

The top three ancestry groups are Other (20.3%), Australian (19.3%), and English (18.6%). Notably, Hungarian (0.8%) and Serbian (1.0%) are overrepresented in Narre Warren - North East compared to regional averages of 0.7% and 1.4%, respectively. Sri Lankan representation is lower at 1.5% versus the regional average of 2.3%.

Narre Warren - North East's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Narre Warren - North East's median age is nearly 36 years, close to Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years, which is slightly below the Australian median of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Narre Warren - North East has a higher proportion of residents aged 55-64 (13.4%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (14.1%). Between 2021 and the present day, the percentage of residents aged 65-74 has increased from 6.7% to 7.8%, while the percentage of residents aged 45-54 has decreased from 14.2% to 13.0%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests significant changes in Narre Warren - North East's age profile. The 65-74 age group is projected to grow by 35%, adding 377 residents to reach a total of 1,448 residents. Residents aged 65 and above are expected to drive 76% of population growth, indicating demographic aging trends. Conversely, the 15-24 and 55-64 age groups are projected to experience population declines.