Narre Warren - North East
Statistical Area - sa2

Narre Warren - North East is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

Narre Warren - North East's population was around 13,649 as of Aug 2025. This showed an increase of 145 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 13,504. The change was inferred from ABS estimated resident population of 13,643 in June 2024 and 11 validated new addresses since the Census date. This resulted in a density ratio of 2,802 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile nationally according to AreaSearch's assessment. Overseas migration contributed approximately 54.9% of overall population gains recently.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 for each SA2 area. For areas not covered, they use VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 with adjustments made via weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future trends suggest lower quartile growth, with an expected expansion of 364 persons to 2041 based on latest numbers, indicating a total gain of 2.6% over the 17-year period.

The level of residential development activity in Narre Warren - North East is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Narre Warren - North East has averaged approximately 10 new dwelling approvals per year. Development approval data provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is on a financial year basis, with 51 homes approved over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, and one approval so far in FY-26. Despite population decline in the area, development activity has been adequate relative to other areas. The average value of new homes being built is $574,000, slightly above the regional average, indicating a focus on quality developments.

There have also been $492,000 in commercial approvals this financial year, suggesting a predominantly residential focus. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Narre Warren - North East has significantly less development activity, 88.0% below the regional average per person. This constrained new construction typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing homes. Furthermore, recent building activity consists entirely of detached houses, sustaining the area's suburban identity with a concentration of family homes suited to buyers seeking space. With approximately 1535 people per dwelling approval, Narre Warren - North East reflects a highly mature market.

Population forecasts indicate the area will gain 358 residents by 2041. Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Narre Warren - North East has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 14 projects potentially impacting the area. Notable projects include Narre Warren Central, Berwick Springs Wetlands Reserve Playground Renewals, Westfield Fountain Gate Ongoing Development, and Narre Warren Police Station Upgrade. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Narre Warren - North East has seen below average employment performance when compared to national benchmarks

Narre Warren - North East has a skilled workforce with notable representation in the construction sector. As of June 2025, its unemployment rate was 5.1%, with an estimated employment growth of 4.1% over the past year.

There were 7,795 residents employed by June 2025, with an unemployment rate 0.5% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation was similar to Greater Melbourne's at 64.1%. Leading industries for residents include health care & social assistance, construction, and manufacturing. Manufacturing particularly stands out with employment levels at 1.7 times the regional average.

Professional & technical services have limited presence, with only 6.0% of employment compared to the regional average of 10.1%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, indicated by Census data comparing working population to resident population. In the year to June 2025, employment levels increased by 4.1%, and labour force grew by 4.4%, leading to a rise in unemployment by 0.3 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment rise by 3.5%, labour force grow by 4.0%, with unemployment rising by 0.5 percentage points. State-level data from Sep-25 shows Victoria's employment grew by 1.08% year-on-year, adding 39,880 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%. This is compared to the national rate of 4.5%, where employment growth was 0.26%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Narre Warren - North East's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.1% over five years and 12.9% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localised population projections.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

Narre Warren North East's median income among taxpayers was $50,572 in financial year 2022. The average income stood at $60,180 during the same period. This compares to Greater Melbourne's figures of $54,892 and $73,761 respectively. By March 2025, current estimates project median income to be approximately $55,685 and average income at $66,264 based on a 10.11% growth in the Wage Price Index since financial year 2022. According to the 2021 Census, household income ranks at the 61st percentile ($1,920 weekly), while personal income sits at the 42nd percentile. The predominant income cohort spans 39.2% of locals (5,350 people) in the $1,500 - 2,999 category, reflecting patterns seen in the surrounding region where 32.8% similarly occupy this range. After housing expenses, 85.5% of income remains for other expenses. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Narre Warren - North East is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Narre Warren - North East's latest Census showed 97.4% houses and 2.7% other dwellings, compared to Melbourne metro's 88.1% houses and 11.8% other dwellings. Home ownership in Narre Warren - North East was 28.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 49.8% and rented at 21.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, below Melbourne metro's $1,900. Median weekly rent was $370, equal to Melbourne metro's figure. Nationally, Narre Warren - North East's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Narre Warren - North East features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 81.9% of all households, including 44.7% couples with children, 23.1% couples without children, and 12.8% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 18.1%, with lone person households at 16.1% and group households comprising 2.0%. The median household size is 3.0 people, larger than Greater Melbourne's average of 2.9.

Educational attainment in Narre Warren - North East aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area has university qualification rates of 22.4%, significantly lower than the Greater Melbourne average of 37.0%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common at 15.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.7%) and graduate diplomas (2.0%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 35.5% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas (11.5%) and certificates (24.0%).

Educational participation is high, with 30.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.2% in primary education, 8.7% in secondary education, and 5.2% pursuing tertiary education. The area has two primary schools - Oatlands Primary School and Maramba Primary School - serving a total of 1,321 students. Narre Warren - North East demonstrates typical Australian school conditions with balanced educational opportunities (ICSEA: 1022). Both primary schools focus exclusively on primary education, with secondary options available in surrounding areas. The area has 9.7 school places per 100 residents, lower than the regional average of 16.0, indicating some students may attend schools in adjacent areas.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Narre Warren - North East has 44 active public transport stops. These are served by buses on three different routes that together facilitate 708 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated good, with residents located an average of 221 meters from the nearest stop.

Across all routes, there are approximately 101 daily trips, equating to about 16 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Narre Warren - North East is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Narre Warren - North East shows better-than-average health outcomes, with low prevalence of common conditions among its general population. However, older and at-risk cohorts have higher rates compared to national averages. Approximately 50% (~6,756 people) have private health cover, lower than Greater Melbourne's 53.6% and the national average of 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma (8.0%) and mental health issues (7.2%), with 72.3% reporting no medical ailments, similar to Greater Melbourne's 72.0%. The area has 12.8% of residents aged 65 and over (1,741 people), lower than Greater Melbourne's 15.7%, but these older individuals require more attention.

Narre Warren - North East is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Narre Warren - North East has a high level of cultural diversity, with 37.4% of its population born overseas and 37.2% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Narre Warren - North East, making up 47.2% of its population. However, Islam is notably overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne, with 9.3% of Narre Warren - North East's population identifying as Muslim, compared to 11.4% regionally.

The top three ancestry groups in Narre Warren - North East are Other (20.3%), Australian (19.3%), and English (18.6%). Some ethnic groups show notable variations: Hungarian is overrepresented at 0.8%, Sri Lankan is underrepresented at 1.5% compared to the regional average of 2.3%, and Serbian is slightly underrepresented at 1.0%.

Narre Warren - North East's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Narre Warren - North East's median age is nearly 36 years, closely matching Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years, which is slightly below the Australian median of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Narre Warren - North East has a higher proportion of residents aged 55-64 (13.4%), but fewer residents aged 25-34 (14.1%). Between the 2021 Census and the present day, the population aged 65-74 has grown from 6.7% to 7.8%, while the proportion of those aged 45-54 has declined from 14.2% to 13.0%. By 2041, demographic modeling predicts significant changes in Narre Warren - North East's age profile. The population aged 65-74 is projected to grow by 35%, adding 377 residents to reach a total of 1,448. Residents aged 65 and above are expected to drive 76% of the population growth, highlighting demographic aging trends. Conversely, populations aged 15-24 and 55-64 are projected to decline.