Narre Warren - North East

Narre Warren - North East is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Narre Warren - North East's population is around 13,655 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 151 people (1.1%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 13,504 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 13,643 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 13 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 2,803 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which contributed approximately 54.9% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilizes the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. As we examine future population trends, lower quartile growth of statistical areas analyzed by AreaSearch is anticipated, with the area expected to expand by 364 persons by 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a gain of 2.6% in total over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Narre Warren - North East is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Narre Warren - North East has averaged around 10 new dwelling approvals per year, with 51 homes approved over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 3 so far in FY-26. Given population has fallen over the past period, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, creating a well-balanced market with good buyer choice, while new properties are constructed at an average value of $438,000—slightly above the regional average—suggesting a focus on quality developments. Additionally, $492,000 in commercial approvals have been registered this financial year, suggesting a predominantly residential focus.

When measured against Greater Melbourne, Narre Warren - North East has significantly less development activity (88.0% below regional average per person). This scarcity of new homes typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties. This activity is likewise lower than nationally, reflecting market maturity and pointing to possible development constraints. Further, recent building activity consists entirely of detached houses, sustaining the area's suburban identity with a concentration of family homes suited to buyers seeking space. With around 1535 people per dwelling approval, Narre Warren - North East reflects a highly mature market.

Looking ahead, Narre Warren - North East is expected to grow by 352 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Narre Warren - North East has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 28thth percentile nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total 13 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include Narre Warren Central, Westfield Fountain Gate Ongoing Development, Narre Warren Police Station Upgrade, and Clyde Creek North Secondary School, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Narre Warren - North East has seen below average employment performance when compared to national benchmarks

Narre Warren - North East possesses a skilled workforce, with the construction sector a particular standout in terms of representation, an unemployment rate of 5.2%, and 4.3% in estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 7,727 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 0.4% above Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%, and workforce participation is fairly standard (73.3% compared to Greater Melbourne's 71.3%). Based on Census responses, a moderate 21.6% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Leading employment industries among residents comprise health care & social assistance, construction, and manufacturing. The area demonstrates a particularly notable concentration in manufacturing, with employment levels at 1.7 times the regional average. Meanwhile, professional & technical services have a limited presence with 6.0% employment compared to 10.1% regionally. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of the Census working population versus the resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, during the year to December 2025, employment levels increased by 4.3% and the labour force increased by 4.6%, resulting in an unemployment rise of 0.3 percentage points. This contrasts with Greater Melbourne, where employment rose by 2.4%, the labour force grew by 2.8%, and unemployment rose 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Narre Warren - North East. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Narre Warren - North East's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 12.9% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

The Narre Warren - North East SA2's income level is below the national average according to the latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for FY-23. The Narre Warren - North East SA2's median income among taxpayers is $53,330 and the average income stands at $62,386, compared to Greater Melbourne's figures of $57,688 and $75,164 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $57,730 (median) and $67,533 (average) as of September 2025. According to 2021 Census figures, household income ranks at the 60th percentile ($1,920 weekly), while personal income sits at the 42nd percentile. The data shows the predominant cohort spans 39.2% of locals (5,352 people) in the $1,500 - 2,999 category, reflecting patterns seen in the surrounding region where 32.8% similarly occupy this range. After housing, 85.5% of income remains for other expenses and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Narre Warren - North East is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Dwelling structure within Narre Warren - North East, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 97.4% houses and 2.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Narre Warren - North East slightly lagged that of Melbourne metro, at 28.7%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (49.8%) or rented (21.4%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well below the Melbourne metro average at $1,733, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $370, compared to Melbourne metro's $2,000 and $390. Nationally, Narre Warren - North East's mortgage repayments are lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are less than the national figure of $375.

Narre Warren - North East features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 81.9% of all households, comprising 44.7% couples with children, 23.1% couples without children, and 12.8% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 18.1%, with lone person households at 16.1% and group households comprising 2.0% of the total. The median household size of 3.0 people is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Educational attainment in Narre Warren - North East aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (22.4%) substantially below the Greater Melbourne average of 37.0%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 15.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.7%) and graduate diplomas (2.0%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 35.5% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (11.5%) and certificates (24.0%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 30.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.2% in primary education, 8.7% in secondary education, and 5.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 43 active transport stops operating within Narre Warren - North East, comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 3 individual routes, collectively providing 473 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 221 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 92%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.8 per dwelling, which is above the regional average. Some 21.6% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 67 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 11 weekly trips per individual stop.

Narre Warren - North East's residents are extremely healthy with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Narre Warren - North East, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Younger cohorts in particular see very low prevalence of common health conditions, and the rate of private health cover is relatively low at approximately 50% of the total population (~6,882 people). This compares to 56.7% across Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are asthma and mental health issues, impacting 8.0% and 7.2% of residents, respectively, while 72.3% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among the working-age population are broadly typical. The area has 13.4% of residents aged 65 and over (1,836 people), which is lower than the 15.1% in Greater Melbourne, though ranking lower nationally than the broader population.

Narre Warren - North East is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Narre Warren - North East scores highly on cultural diversity, with 37.4% of its population born overseas and 37.2% speaking a language other than English at home. The main religion in Narre Warren - North East is Christianity, which makes up 47.2% of people. However, the most apparent overrepresentation is in Islam, which comprises 9.3% of the population, compared to 5.6% across Greater Melbourne.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Narre Warren - North East are Other, comprising 20.3% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 14.6%, Australian, comprising 19.3% of the population, and English, comprising 18.6% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Hungarian is notably overrepresented at 0.8% of Narre Warren - North East (vs 0.3% regionally), Sri Lankan at 1.5% (vs 0.8%) and Serbian at 1.0% (vs 0.4%).

Narre Warren - North East's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

At 36 years, Narre Warren - North East's median age is nearly matching the Greater Melbourne average of 37 and is similarly modestly under the Australian median of 38. Relative to Greater Melbourne, Narre Warren - North East has a higher concentration of 55 - 64 residents (13.4%) but fewer 25 - 34 year-olds (13.8%). Since the 2021 Census, the 65 to 74 age group has grown from 6.7% to 8.4% of the population. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 14.2% to 13.0%. Demographic modeling suggests Narre Warren - North East's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041. The 65 to 74 cohort shows the strongest projected growth at 27%, adding 306 residents to reach 1,448. Senior residents (65+) will drive 73% of population growth, underscoring demographic aging trends. On the other hand, the 15 to 24 and 25 to 34 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.