Narre Warren North
Statistical Area - sa2

Population growth drivers in Narre Warren North are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Narre Warren North's population was 8,241 as of Aug 2021. By Aug 2025, it is estimated to be around 8,263, an increase of 22 people (0.3%) since the 2021 Census. This change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 8,188 in June 2024 and 68 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density as of Aug 2025 is 240 persons per square kilometer. Overseas migration was the primary driver of population growth in recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, they utilise VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, Narre Warren North's population is expected to increase by 642 persons, reflecting a total increase of 6.8% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Narre Warren North according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Narre Warren North has seen approximately 25 dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling 126 homes. In FY-2026 so far, 8 approvals have been recorded. The area has experienced population decline, yet housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, resulting in a balanced market with good buyer choice. New homes are being built at an average construction cost value of $867,000, indicating a focus on the premium segment.

This year, $16.0 million in commercial approvals have been registered, suggesting steady commercial investment activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Narre Warren North has around half the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and ranks among the 61st percentile nationally, although development activity has increased recently. This is below the national average, suggesting the area's established nature and potential planning limitations. Recent building activity consists solely of detached houses, preserving the area's low-density character and attracting space-seeking buyers.

With around 242 people per dwelling approval, Narre Warren North displays characteristics of a low-density area. Future projections estimate an addition of 563 residents by 2041. Given current development patterns, new housing supply should meet demand, offering favourable conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Narre Warren North has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 22 projects likely affecting the region. Notable projects are Oak Ridge Residential Estate, South East Melbourne Recycled Water Supply Infrastructure Upgrades, Hallam North and Heatherton Road Upgrade, Berwick Springs Wetlands Reserve Playground Renewals. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

The labour market strength in Narre Warren North positions it well ahead of most Australian regions

Narre Warren North has a skilled workforce with notable representation in the construction sector. Its unemployment rate was 2.2% as of June 2025, lower than Greater Melbourne's 4.6%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 4.1%. As of June 2025, 4,770 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 2.4%, similar to Greater Melbourne's workforce participation rate of 64.1%. Key employment sectors are construction, retail trade, and health care & social assistance, particularly notable in construction at 2.1 times the regional average. Professional & technical services have limited presence at 6.4% compared to 10.1% regionally.

Local employment opportunities appear limited based on Census data comparison of working population vs resident population. In the year ending June 2025, employment increased by 4.1% while labour force grew by 4.4%, raising unemployment rate by 0.3 percentage points. State-level data to Sep-25 shows Victoria's employment growth at 1.08% year-on-year, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%. National forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Narre Warren North's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.2% over five years and 12.8% over ten years, though these are simplified extrapolations for illustrative purposes only.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

Narre Warren North's median income among taxpayers was $55,809 in financial year 2022. The average income stood at $79,510 during the same period. These figures compare to Greater Melbourne's median and average incomes of $54,892 and $73,761 respectively. Based on a Wage Price Index growth rate of 10.11%, estimated median and average incomes for Narre Warren North as of March 2025 would be approximately $61,451 and $87,548 respectively. According to census data, household incomes rank at the 93rd percentile with a weekly income of $2,659, while personal incomes rank lower at the 52nd percentile. The earnings profile shows that 29.8% of residents (2,462 people) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 weekly income bracket, reflecting a pattern seen in the broader area where 32.8% occupy this range. A significant 43.0% earn above $3,000 weekly. After housing costs, residents retain 88.8% of their income. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Narre Warren North is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Narre Warren North's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, was 99.1% houses and 0.8% other dwellings. Melbourne metro had 88.1% houses and 11.8% other dwellings. Home ownership in Narre Warren North was 44.4%, with mortgages at 51.5% and rentals at 4.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,372, above Melbourne metro's average of $1,900. Median weekly rent in the area was $400, compared to Melbourne metro's $370. Nationally, Narre Warren North's mortgage repayments exceeded the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were higher than the national figure of $375.

Narre Warren North features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 90.2% of all households, including 53.4% couples with children, 29.3% couples without children, and 6.9% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 9.8%, with lone person households at 8.5% and group households comprising 1.3%. The median household size is 3.3 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.9.

The educational profile of Narre Warren North exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 24.8%, substantially lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 18.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.6%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 34.4% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas (11.6%) and certificates (22.8%). Educational participation is high at 32.1%, including primary education (10.3%), secondary education (10.0%), and tertiary education (6.0%).

Six schools operate in Narre Warren North, educating approximately 1,212 students, with above-average socio-educational conditions (ICSEA: 1079). The educational mix includes four primary schools and two K-12 schools.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Narre Warren North has 19 operational public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 13 distinct routes that together facilitate 1,498 weekly passenger trips. Residents' access to public transportation is rated as limited, with an average distance of 651 meters to the nearest stop.

The service frequency across all routes is 214 trips per day, which translates to approximately 78 weekly trips per individual stop.

Narre Warren North's residents are extremely healthy with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Narre Warren North. Both young and old age cohorts have low prevalence of common health conditions.

The rate of private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 59% of the total population (4,908 people), compared to 53.6% across Greater Melbourne. The most common medical conditions are arthritis and asthma, impacting 7.1 and 6.1% of residents respectively. A total of 72.8% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 72.0% across Greater Melbourne. As of 15th March 2021, the area has 19.2% of residents aged 65 and over (1,590 people), which is higher than the 15.7% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

Narre Warren North was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Narre Warren North, as of a study conducted in [month year], exhibited greater cultural diversity than most local areas, with 29.0% of its residents born overseas and 27.3% speaking languages other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 54.8% of the population. Islam, however, was notably more prevalent in Narre Warren North at 8.4%, compared to Greater Melbourne's average of 11.4%.

Regarding ancestry, Australian heritage was most common at 22.6%, higher than the regional average of 17.5%. English ancestry followed at 20.7%, and 'Other' ancestry made up 15.6%, lower than the regional average of 22.0%. Certain ethnic groups showed notable variations: Dutch heritage was overrepresented at 2.7% (vs 1.6% regionally), Hungarian at 0.6% (vs 0.7%), and Sri Lankan at 1.3% (vs 2.3%).

Narre Warren North hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

The median age in Narre Warren North is 43 years, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and exceeds the national average of 38 years. The age profile indicates that those aged 55-64 years are most prominent at 15.9%, while those aged 25-34 years are less numerous at 8.5% compared to Greater Melbourne. Between 2021 and present, the 15-24 age group has increased from 15.7% to 17.0% of the population, while the 75-84 cohort has risen from 5.0% to 6.2%. Conversely, the 35-44 age group has decreased from 10.3% to 9.0%, and the 5-14 age group has dropped from 13.5% to 12.5%. By 2041, demographic projections show significant changes in Narre Warren North's age structure. The 75-84 age cohort is projected to rise by 278 people (55%) from 509 to 788. Notably, the combined age groups of 65 and above will account for 82% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. Conversely, the 25-34 and 45-54 age cohorts are expected to experience population declines.