Narre Warren North

Population growth drivers in Narre Warren North are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

Narre Warren North's population, as of February 2026, is approximately 8,459, reflecting a growth of 218 people since the 2021 Census. The population in 2021 was reported to be 8,241. This increase is inferred from ABS estimated resident population data of 8,184 as of June 2024 and an additional 69 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 245 persons per square kilometer. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered, VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 are used, adjusted employing weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends indicate an expected increase of 642 persons by 2041, reflecting a total increase of 4.3% over the 17-year period based on latest annual ERP population numbers.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Narre Warren North according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Narre Warren North has received around 25 dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling 126 homes. In FY26 so far, 21 approvals have been recorded. Despite population decline, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, creating a balanced market with good buyer choice. New homes are being built at an average construction cost of $862,000, indicating a focus on the premium segment.

This financial year, $16.0 million in commercial approvals have been registered, showing steady commercial investment activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Narre Warren North has approximately half the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and ranks among the 60th percentile nationally, suggesting its established nature and potential planning limitations. Recent building activity consists solely of detached houses, preserving the area's low density character and attracting space-seeking buyers. With around 242 people per dwelling approval, Narre Warren North exhibits low-density characteristics.

According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Narre Warren North is projected to add 367 residents by 2041. Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Narre Warren North has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 45thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 26 projects likely impacting the area. Notable ones include Oak Ridge Residential Estate, Ellington Estate, South East Melbourne Recycled Water Supply Infrastructure Upgrades, and Hallam North and Heatherton Road Upgrade. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis reveals Narre Warren North significantly outperforming the majority of regions assessed nationwide

Narre Warren North has a skilled workforce with notable representation in the construction sector. Its unemployment rate was 2.3% as of September 2025, which is below Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 4.2%.

There are 4,681 residents currently employed. Workforce participation in Narre Warren North is similar to Greater Melbourne's 71.0%. According to Census responses, 25.9% of residents work from home. Employment among residents is concentrated in construction, retail trade, and health care & social assistance.

The area has a particularly notable concentration in construction, with employment levels at 2.1 times the regional average. However, professional & technical services have limited presence, with only 6.4% employment compared to the regional average of 10.1%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. In the 12-month period ending in September 2025, employment increased by 4.2%, while the labour force grew by 4.5%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.3 percentage points. This contrasts with Greater Melbourne, where employment rose by 3.0%, the labour force grew by 3.3%, and unemployment rose by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these industry-specific projections to Narre Warren North's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.2% over five years and 12.8% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

Narre Warren North SA2 has an exceptionally high national income level according to AreaSearch's aggregation of latest ATO data for financial year 2023. Its median income among taxpayers is $57,088 and the average income stands at $80,611. These figures compare to Greater Melbourne's median income of $57,688 and average income of $75,164 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $61,798 (median) and $87,261 (average). Census data indicates that household incomes rank at the 93rd percentile ($2,659 weekly), while personal income ranks lower at the 52nd percentile. The earnings profile shows that 29.8% of residents earn between $1,500 and $2,999 weekly (2,520 people). This is similar to the broader area where 32.8% occupy this range. Notably, 43.0% of residents earn above $3,000 weekly, reflecting prosperity pockets driving local economic activity. After housing costs, residents retain 88.8% of income, indicating strong purchasing power and placing the area's SEIFA income ranking in the 8th decile.

Narre Warren North is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Narre Warren North, as per the latest Census, comprised 99.1% houses and 0.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Melbourne metro had 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Narre Warren North stood at 44.4%, with the rest either mortgaged (51.5%) or rented (4.1%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,372, higher than Melbourne metro's $2,000. Median weekly rent was $400, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Narre Warren North's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,372 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents exceeded the national figure of $375 at $400.

Narre Warren North features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 90.2% of all households, including 53.4% couples with children, 29.3% couples without children, and 6.9% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 9.8%, with lone person households at 8.5% and group households comprising 1.3%. The median household size is 3.3 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

The educational profile of Narre Warren North exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 24.8%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 18.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.6%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 34.4% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.6%) and certificates (22.8%). Educational participation is high, with 32.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 10.3% in primary education, 10.0% in secondary education, and 6.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Narre Warren North has 20 operational public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 13 different routes that collectively facilitate 1,015 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is limited, with residents typically located 650 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to its residential nature. Car remains the primary mode of transportation at 96%. Vehicle ownership averages 2.6 per dwelling, higher than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, a significant 25.9% of residents work from home, which may be reflective of COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency averages 145 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 50 weekly trips per individual stop.

Narre Warren North's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with a fairly standard level of common health conditions seen across both young and old age cohorts

Narre Warren North's health data shows positive outcomes, aligning with national benchmarks for mortality rates and health conditions. Common health conditions are seen across both young and old age cohorts at a standard level.

Private health cover is exceptionally high, with approximately 60% of the total population (5,033 people), compared to 56.7% in Greater Melbourne. The most common medical conditions are arthritis and asthma, affecting 7.1 and 6.1% of residents respectively. 72.8% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, similar to the 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents have low chronic condition prevalence. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 20.3%, compared to 15.1% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, with national rankings even higher than the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Narre Warren North was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Narre Warren North had a higher cultural diversity than most local areas, with 29.0% of its residents born overseas and 27.3% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Narre Warren North, comprising 54.8% of the population. Islam was more prevalent in Narre Warren North compared to Greater Melbourne, making up 8.4% versus 5.6%.

The top three ancestry groups were Australian (22.6%), English (20.7%), and Other (15.6%). Notably, Dutch (2.7%) and Hungarian (0.6%) ethnicities were overrepresented in Narre Warren North compared to regional averages of 1.2% and 0.3%, respectively. Sri Lankan ethnicity was also higher than the regional average at 1.3%.

Narre Warren North's median age exceeds the national pattern

The median age in Narre Warren North is 43 years, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and exceeds the national average of 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 55-64 years are prominent at 15.8%, while those aged 25-34 years are relatively smaller at 8.2%. Between 2021 and present, the 15-24 year age group has increased from 15.7% to 17.4%, and the 75-84 year cohort has grown from 5.0% to 6.6%. Conversely, the 5-14 year age group has declined from 13.5% to 12.0%, and the 35-44 year group has decreased from 10.3% to 8.8%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Narre Warren North's age structure. The 75-84 year cohort is projected to increase by 233 people (42%), from 554 to 788. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 91% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. Conversely, the 25-34 year and 45-54 year cohorts are expected to experience population declines.