Narre Warren North

Population growth drivers in Narre Warren North are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

Narre Warren North's population was 8,241 as of May 2026, a decrease of 4 people from the 2021 Census figure. This change is inferred from ABS estimated resident population data showing 8,237 in June 2025 and an additional 71 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density was 239 persons per square kilometer. Overseas migration primarily drove recent population growth. AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for SA2 areas, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022.

For uncovered areas, VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 are used with adjustments made via weighted aggregation to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future trends suggest a population increase of 618 persons by 2041, reflecting a 7.5% total increase over the 16-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Narre Warren North according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Narre Warren North has received approximately 25 dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 126 homes. In FY2026 so far, 28 approvals have been recorded. Despite population decline, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, creating a balanced market with good buyer choice. The average expected construction cost of new homes is $862,000, indicating a focus on the premium segment.

Commercial approvals totalling $16.0 million have been registered in FY2026, showing steady commercial investment activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Narre Warren North has about half the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and ranks among the 60th percentile nationally, suggesting its established nature and potential planning limitations. Recent building activity consists solely of detached houses, preserving the area's low density character and attracting space-seeking buyers. With around 242 people per dwelling approval, Narre Warren North exhibits low-density characteristics.

According to AreaSearch quarterly estimates, Narre Warren North is projected to add 618 residents by 2041. Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should meet demand, offering favourable conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond projections.

Narre Warren North has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 46thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 26 projects that may affect this region. Notable ones include Oak Ridge Residential Estate, Ellington Estate, South East Melbourne Recycled Water Supply Infrastructure Upgrades, and Narre Warren North Primary School Modernisation. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis reveals Narre Warren North significantly outperforming the majority of regions assessed nationwide

Narre Warren North has a skilled workforce with notable representation in the construction sector. Its unemployment rate was 2.4% as of December 2025, which is 2.3% lower than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%. Workforce participation in Narre Warren North is similar to Greater Melbourne's at 69.9%.

According to Census responses, 25.9% of residents work from home. Employment is concentrated in construction, retail trade, and health care & social assistance. Construction employment levels are particularly high at 2.1 times the regional average. Professional & technical services have a limited presence with 6.4% employment compared to the regional average of 10.1%.

The area may offer limited local employment opportunities as indicated by the difference between the Census working population and resident population. Between December 2024 and 2025, employment increased by 4.1%, while the labour force grew by 4.6%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.4 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment rise by 2.4% with a labour force growth of 2.8% and an unemployment increase of 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Narre Warren North's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.2% over five years and 12.8% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localised population projections.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

Narre Warren North SA2's median income among taxpayers was $57,088 and average income was $80,611 in financial year 2023, according to ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. This compares with Greater Melbourne's figures of $57,688 and $75,164 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $62,580 (median) and $88,366 (average) as of March 2026. Census data shows household incomes rank at the 93rd percentile ($2,659 weekly), while personal income ranks at the 52nd percentile. The earnings profile indicates that 29.8% of residents (2,454 people) fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket, reflecting broader area patterns where 32.8% occupy this range. Notably, 43.0% earn above $3,000 weekly, suggesting prosperity pockets driving local economic activity. After housing costs, residents retain 88.8% of income, indicating strong purchasing power and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Narre Warren North is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Narre Warren North's dwellings, as per the latest Census, were predominantly houses at 99.1%, with other types (semi-detached, apartments, 'other') comprising 0.8%. This compares to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Narre Warren North stood at 44.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 51.5% and rented ones at 4.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,372, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. Weekly rent in Narre Warren North averaged $400, slightly above Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Narre Warren North's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,372 compared to the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were also higher at $400 against the national figure of $375.

Narre Warren North features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 90.2% of all households, including 53.4% couples with children, 29.3% couples without children, and 6.9% single parent families. Non-family households account for 9.8%, with lone person households at 8.5% and group households comprising 1.3%. The median household size is 3.3 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

The educational profile of Narre Warren North exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 24.8%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 18.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.6%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 34.4% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.6%) and certificates (22.8%). Educational participation is high, with 32.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 10.3% in primary education, 10.0% in secondary education, and 6.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Narre Warren North has 20 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 13 different routes that together facilitate 1,015 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is considered limited, with residents on average being located 650 meters away from the nearest transport stop. As a predominantly residential area, most residents commute outward. Cars remain the primary mode of transportation, used by 96% of residents. On average, there are 2.6 vehicles per dwelling in Narre Warren North, which is higher than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 25.9% of residents work from home, a figure that may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. Across all routes, service frequency averages 145 trips per day, equating to roughly 50 weekly trips per individual stop.

Narre Warren North's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with a fairly standard level of common health conditions seen across both young and old age cohorts

Narre Warren North residents show positive health outcomes, according to AreaSearch's analysis of mortality rates and health conditions. The area's results align with national benchmarks, with common health conditions seen across both young and old age groups.

Private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 60% of the total population (4,901 people), compared to 56.7% in Greater Melbourne. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis and asthma, affecting 7.1 and 6.1% of residents respectively. 72.8% of residents report no medical ailments, similar to the 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents have low chronic condition prevalence. As of 30 June 20XX, 19.8% of residents are aged 65 and over (1,634 people), higher than Greater Melbourne's 15.0%. Health outcomes among seniors in Narre Warren North are above average, ranking higher than the general population nationally.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Narre Warren North was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Narre Warren North, as per the 2016 Census, had a higher level of cultural diversity than most local areas with 29.0% of its population born overseas and 27.3% speaking languages other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Narre Warren North, accounting for 54.8% of the population. Islam, however, showed a higher representation in Narre Warren North at 8.4%, compared to the Greater Melbourne average of 5.6%.

The top three ancestral groups were Australian (22.6%), English (20.7%), and Other (15.6%). Notably, Dutch ancestry was overrepresented at 2.7% versus the regional average of 1.2%, Hungarian at 0.6% compared to 0.3%, and Sri Lankan at 1.3% against a regional average of 0.8%.

Narre Warren North's median age exceeds the national pattern

The median age in Narre Warren North is 43 years, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and exceeds the national average of 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 55-64 make up 15.8% of the population, a prominent figure compared to other age groups. Meanwhile, the 25-34 age group comprises 8.5%, which is relatively smaller than in Greater Melbourne. Between 2021 and now, the 15-24 age group has increased from 15.7% to 17.6%, while the 75-84 cohort has risen from 5.0% to 6.4%. Conversely, the 35-44 age group has decreased from 10.3% to 8.8%, and the 5-14 age group has dropped from 13.5% to 12.0%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Narre Warren North's age structure. The 75-84 age cohort is projected to increase by 249 people (47%), growing from 530 to 780 individuals. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups are expected to account for 75% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic trend. Conversely, the 0-4 and 35-44 age cohorts are projected to experience population declines.