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This analysis uses ABS Statistical Areas Level 2 (SA2) boundaries, which can materially differ from Suburbs and Localities (SAL) even when sharing similar names.
SA2 boundaries are defined by the Australian Bureau of Statistics and are designed to represent communities for statistical reporting (e.g., census and ERP).
Suburbs and Localities (SAL) represent commonly-used suburb/locality names (postal-style areas) and may use different geographic boundaries. For comprehensive analysis, consider reviewing both boundary types if available.
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ABS ERP | -- people | --
2021 Census | -- people
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Narre Warren North has an estimated 8,240 residents. That puts 240 residents on each square kilometre. Population is estimated from ABS Estimated Resident Population releases and GNAF address data, re-based from the 2021 Census and updated annually.
Detail
According to demographic research by AreaSearch, Narre Warren North records a population of approximately 8,240 as of Aug 2026. This represents a slight decline of 1 people (virtually no percentage change) compared to the 2021 Census count of 8,241 people. This assessment draws upon the ABS estimated resident population figure of 8,237 recorded as of June 2025 alongside 73 validated new addresses registered following the Census. The local population density stands at 239 persons per square kilometer, indicating low-density living with substantial space per resident and room for potential future development.
In recent periods, population expansion was almost entirely underpinned by overseas migration as the primary source of incoming residents. Projections for each SA2 district rely on ABS and Geoscience Australia modelling published in 2024 using 2022 as their baseline year. Where specific SA2 figures are absent, AreaSearch applies 2023 VIC State Government Regional and LGA forecasts via weighted growth aggregation from LGA down to SA2 boundaries. These aggregated age-cohort growth rates are extended across all districts between 2032 and 2041. Based on expected demographic trends, the area is projected to experience population expansion marginally under the national SA2 median, gaining 574 persons by 2041 according to the most recent annual ERP statistics, representing a cumulative increase of 6.9% across the 16 years.
Frequently Asked Questions - Population
143 new dwellings have been approved in Narre Warren North over the past five years, an average of 28 a year. That is 3.5 approvals per 1,000 residents. Of the 28 dwellings approved in the latest reporting year, 100% were detached houses and the rest townhouses or apartments. Figures come from ABS building approvals aggregated to this SA2 boundary and are updated monthly as the ABS releases them.
Detail
Residential building approvals in Narre Warren North have averaged approximately 28 new dwellings each year, accumulating to 143 homes over the last 5 financial years. Despite recent population contraction, this level of home building has maintained sufficient supply relative to demand, supporting prospective purchasers, while new homes average an estimated build value of $1,050,000, underscoring an emphasis by developers on high-end, premium construction. In addition, commercial planning approvals have reached $16.0 million during this financial year, demonstrating consistent non-residential capital expenditure. On a per-capita basis, residential approvals in Narre Warren North run at roughly two-thirds of the Greater Melbourne rate, placing the suburb in the 57th percentile among all evaluated statistical areas nationwide.
This lower approval rate relative to regional and national averages indicates an established property market with potential planning constraints. Furthermore, all recent residential building activity consisted exclusively of separate houses, preserving the district's established low-density setting tailored to family living and spacious lot requirements. Generating roughly 242 people per dwelling approval, the locality displays classic low-density suburban traits. From the most recent AreaSearch quarterly baseline, Narre Warren North is forecast to add 571 residents by 2041. Under current construction trajectories, residential additions are positioned to comfortably absorb projected household formation, sustaining favorable buying conditions and potentially supporting population growth beyond baseline expectations.
Frequently Asked Questions - Development
Development applications around Narre Warren North
SOURCE: Planning portals and council registers, compiled by AreaSearch. Distance & bearing measured from the suburb midpoint.
AreaSearch tracks 6 current infrastructure and development projects inside Narre Warren North, worth an estimated $556 million. A further 63 sit in the immediately surrounding suburbs, taking the tracked pipeline within reach of the area to $11.3 billion. 17 are already under construction and 22 are due for completion within three years. The pipeline spans residential development, communities, precincts & urban renewal and transport & logistics. Records are compiled from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, council planning portals and public announcements, reviewed and updated daily, then ranked by proximity, construction stage, completion horizon and project scale.
Detail
Capital investments and urban planning initiatives play a major role in shaping local community development. AreaSearch has tracked 26 key infrastructure projects with potential local relevance, headlined by works including Oak Ridge Residential Estate, Ellington Estate, South East Melbourne Recycled Water Supply Infrastructure Upgrades, and Narre Warren North Primary School Modernisation.
Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.
INFRASTRUCTURE SEARCH
Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.
Frequently Asked Questions - Infrastructure
Oak Ridge Residential Estate
Premium residential estate offering 17 exclusive 800mý lots with wide frontages in semi-rural Narre Warren North. Located at the foothills of the Dandenong Ranges with Green Wedge zoning protection. Features design guidelines ensuring integration with natural surroundings, close to schools, shops, parks and 35-minute commute to Melbourne CBD. Project is 50% sold with lots priced from $835,000 after cashback.
Hillcrest Narre Warren North
Boutique estate of 34 premium homesites ranging from 1,000m2 to over 2,000m2 in Narre Warren North, a prestigious growth corridor in Melbourne's south-east. The development was entirely pre-sold before completion.
Narre Warren North Primary School Modernisation
Major upgrade and modernisation of Narre Warren North Primary School, funded with $4.5 million, to demolish Building 1 and replace it with a new permanent modular building providing state-of-the-art classrooms, administration facilities, and modern learning neighbourhoods. An Inclusive Schools Fund project for a sensory garden was also completed.
South East Melbourne Recycled Water Supply Infrastructure Upgrades
Upgrades to recycle more water in South East Melbourne for irrigation, improving water security and reducing demand for potable water amidst climate change and population growth.
Ellington Estate
Premium masterplanned residential community in Narre Warren North, featuring large allotments from 1,000sqm to over 4,000sqm in an established leafy setting. The estate includes 120 dwellings and is completed.
Hallam Healthcare Precinct
An integrated $170 million healthcare precinct development featuring a 90-suite residential aged care extension (expanding site total to 270 beds), a day surgery hospital with three operating theatres, a 10-GP medical centre, health spa, 160-place early learning centre, commercial health club, and aquatic centre.
Hallam North and Heatherton Road Upgrade
This major road upgrade, delivered under Victoria's Big Build, added an extra lane in each direction on Hallam North Road between Heatherton Road and James Cook Drive, replaced the roundabout at Hallam North Road and Heatherton Road with traffic lights, installed new traffic lights at Heatherton Village and Thomas Mitchell Drive, added dedicated turn lanes, new U-turn facilities, upgraded intersections, new and upgraded shared-use paths on both sides, safety barriers, street lighting, stormwater drainage, and landscaping.Construction started in April 2021 and was completed in December 2022. Contractor: Symal. Delivery authority: Major Road Projects Victoria.
Narre Warren Central
State-of-the-art Large Format Retail (LFR) centre with 17,000 square metres of elevated retail spaces in a landscaped environment. Features flexible tenancies from 300 to 3,500 square metres for retail and allied health needs, with proximity to Westfield Fountain Gate in Melbourne's fastest growing suburb. Development includes convenience restaurants and restricted retail premises with reduced parking requirements.
4,761 residents of Narre Warren North are employed, from a labour force of 4,868. Unemployment sits at 2.2%, with participation at 70.3%. Weighted for its industry mix, the area's sectors are forecast to grow about 6.2% nationally over five years. That reflects industry composition only and makes no allowance for local population growth. The working-day population is estimated at 6,614, about 80% of the resident population, so more people leave the area for work than travel in. Unemployment and labour force come from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, updated quarterly; the industry and occupation profile is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
Narre Warren North enjoys a robust labor pool, with the construction industry standing out as a major employer, an unemployment rate of 2.2%, and an estimated employment growth of 4.5% over the previous year. As of March 2026, 4,761 residents are employed, and the local unemployment rate stands at 2.6 percentage points lower than Greater Melbourne's 4.8%, while workforce participation matches Greater Melbourne's 70.1%. Census data indicates that a substantial 25.9% of residents work from home, although the effects of Covid-19 lockdowns should be taken into account. The primary employment sectors among local workers are construction, retail trade, and health care & social assistance.
Local workforce concentration is especially heavy in construction, where the resident worker proportion is 2.1 times the metropolitan average. In contrast, professional & technical services comprise a smaller share locally at 6.4%, compared with 10.1% across the wider region. Comparing the resident labour force against local workplace counts indicates that internal employment capacity remains modest. AreaSearch evaluation of ABS and SALM series shows that in the year leading to March 2026, resident employment rose by 4.5% alongside an identical 4.5% expansion in the labour force, keeping joblessness largely unchanged. Across Greater Melbourne over the same timeframe, employment grew by 2.1% and the labour pool by 2.3%, leading to an increase of 0.2 percentage points in unemployment. Long-term outlooks from Jobs and Skills Australia as of Mar-26 provide additional context on potential workforce requirements for Narre Warren North. When national projections (6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years) are weighted against the local industry distribution, resident employment is estimated to grow by 6.2% over five years and 12.8% over ten years (representing an illustrative sectoral weighting that excludes local population adjustments).
Frequently Asked Questions - Employment
Median household income in Narre Warren North is $2,659 a week (about $138,000 a year), with median personal income at $818 a week. ATO records put median taxable income at $57,088 a year against an average of $80,611. The average runs 41% above the median, a wider spread than most areas and a sign of a concentrated group of high earners. Household income is from the 2021 Census; taxable income is from ATO Taxation Statistics for the latest financial year available, indexed forward using the ABS Wage Price Index.
Detail
Aggregated ATO data compiled by AreaSearch for financial year 2023 ranks Narre Warren North SA2 among the top-earning districts nationally. Taxpayers in Narre Warren North SA2 record a median income of $57,088 alongside an average taxable income of $80,611, compared against Greater Melbourne benchmarks of $57,688 and $75,164 respectively. Accounting for cumulative Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since financial year 2023, modelled values reach roughly $62,580 for median earnings and $88,366 for average earnings as of March 2026. In the 2021 Census, local household earnings reached the 93rd percentile ($2,659 weekly), whereas individual personal earnings placed in the 52nd percentile.
Middle-income earners ($1,500 - 2,999 per week) account for 29.8% of the community (2,455 individuals), mirroring the broader metropolitan proportion of 32.8%. High-income households are prominent, with 43.0% generating weekly incomes above $3,000, underpinning demand for upscale services and retail. Residents retain 88.8% of their income after meeting mortgage or rent obligations, and the suburb sits in the 8th decile on the SEIFA income index.
Frequently Asked Questions - Income
Narre Warren North had 2,308 occupied dwellings at the 2021 Census, 99% detached houses and 0% apartments. 52% are owned with a mortgage, 4% rented and 44% owned outright. At that Census the median rent was $400 a week and the median mortgage repayment $2,372 a month. Rent absorbs 15.0% of household income here and mortgage repayments 20.6%. Dwelling stock, tenure and housing costs are 2021 Census measures — the only source that counts dwellings at this boundary size.
Detail
Census records indicate that separate houses make up 99.1% of residential dwellings in Narre Warren North, while medium and high-density formats (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings) represent just 0.8%, standing in sharp contrast to Melbourne metro figures of 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Outright home ownership is particularly pronounced at 44.4%, substantially exceeding the metropolitan standard, while mortgaged properties account for 51.5% and rental tenure represents 4.1%. Typical monthly mortgage payments reach $2,372, surpassing the Melbourne metro median of $2,000 and the national benchmark of $1,863. Median weekly rents sit at $400, higher than both the Melbourne metro benchmark of $390 and the Australian average of $375.
Frequently Asked Questions - Housing
Narre Warren North counted 2,308 households at the 2021 Census, averaging 3.3 people each. 53% are couples with children, more than in 96% of areas nationally, against 29% couples without children. 9% of households are people living alone, and families average 1.8 children. Household and family composition is measured only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Family households constitute the vast majority of local living arrangements at 90.2%, comprising 53.4% couples with children, 29.3% couples without children, and 6.9% single parent families. Non-family dwellings make up the remaining 9.8%, divided between lone person households at 8.5% and group households at 1.3%. The suburb's median household size of 3.3 people exceeds the Greater Melbourne benchmark of 2.6.
Frequently Asked Questions - Households
24.8% of adults in Narre Warren North hold a university qualification, including 18.0% with a bachelor degree and 4.6% with postgraduate qualifications. A further 22.8% hold a vocational qualification. 6 schools serve the area, with 1,212 enrolment places and an average ICSEA of 1,079 against a national benchmark of 1,000. Qualifications come from the 2021 Census; school enrolments, ICSEA and results come from ACARA's current release.
Detail
Tertiary qualification levels present an area for development in Narre Warren North, where 24.8% of residents hold higher education degrees compared to 37.0% across Greater Melbourne. Among degree holders, 18.0% have attained a Bachelor degree, 4.6% possess postgraduate qualifications, and 2.2% hold graduate diplomas. Conversely, vocational and technical training is widely represented, with 34.4% of the population aged 15+ possessing vocational credentials, including 11.6% with advanced diplomas and 22.8% holding certificates. Formal study participation is widespread across the suburb, with 32.1% of the population engaged in education. Breaking down current enrolments, primary school students make up 10.3%, secondary students represent 10.0%, and 6.0% are attending tertiary institutions.
Frequently Asked Questions - Education
Schools Detail
Public transport in Narre Warren North reaches 20 stops on 11 routes, timetabled for about 2,900 services a week. The typical home sits about 650 m from its nearest stop. Buses carry the largest share of public transport commuters. Households keep an average of 2.6 vehicles. Stop and service counts are built from operators' published GTFS timetables and refresh with each timetable release; vehicle ownership is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
Local public transport infrastructure within Narre Warren North includes 20 operational transit stops providing bus connections across 11 dedicated routes, which collectively deliver 2,926 weekly passenger trips. Overall public transit accessibility remains constrained, with the average distance to a stop measuring 650 meters. Private motor vehicles serve as the primary mode of travel, capturing 96% of commuter trips, while vehicle ownership stands at 2.6 per dwelling, higher than the regional average. Census figures show 25.9% working from home, reflecting conditions during 2021 Census collections. Across all transit lines, bus frequency delivers an average of 418 daily services, which translates to roughly 146 weekly departures for each individual stop.
Frequently Asked Questions - Transport
Transport Stops Detail
72.8% of residents in Narre Warren North report no long-term health condition. 6.0% need daily assistance with core activities, and 59.5% hold private health cover. The standardised death rate runs at 6.2 per 1,000 residents. Health conditions, assistance needs and insurance are 2021 Census measures; the death rate comes from current ABS releases.
Detail
Health indicators for Narre Warren North reflect positive overall community well-being, with AreaSearch evaluations of mortality statistics and medical conditions aligning closely with national averages across different age demographics. The prevalence of private health insurance is particularly high, covering roughly 60% of residents (4,902 people), higher than the 56.7% proportion recorded across Greater Melbourne. Arthritis (7.1%) and asthma (6.1%) represent the most prevalent diagnosed conditions among residents, while 72.8% of the local population reported no chronic health issues, consistent with the 72.6% benchmark across Greater Melbourne. Working-age cohorts demonstrate strong general health with minimal chronic illness.
Seniors aged 65 and over comprise 19.6% of residents (1,613 people), outpacing the metropolitan share of 15.1%, with older residents achieving health outcomes that exceed national averages.
Frequently Asked Questions - Health
29.0% of Narre Warren North residents were born overseas and 27.3% speak a language other than English at home. The largest reported ancestries are Australian (22.6%) and English (20.7%). Ancestry, language and country of birth are counted only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Cultural diversity in Narre Warren North is elevated relative to broader standards, with overseas-born individuals representing 29.0% of the community and 27.3% speaking a non-English language in their homes. Christianity forms the largest religious affiliation, accounting for 54.8% of residents. Islam represents the most noticeably overrepresented faith community locally at 8.4%, compared with 5.6% across Greater Melbourne. Regarding ancestral heritage, the leading reported parental ancestries are Australian (22.6%), English (20.7%), and Other (15.6%). Specific communities demonstrate elevated local representation compared to metropolitan norms, including Dutch ancestry at 2.7% (against 1.2% regionally), Sri Lankan at 1.3% (against 0.8%), and Hungarian at 0.6% (against 0.3%).
Frequently Asked Questions - Diversity
The median resident of Narre Warren North is 43. 26.1% of residents are aged 15 to 34. Age cohorts are not raw Census counts: the Census split is re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections.
Detail
The demographic profile of Narre Warren North leans older than metropolitan benchmarks. In figures updated to August 2026, mature adults and early retirees aged 45 - 64 make up 29.4% of residents (compared to 22.3% across Greater Melbourne), while young to middle-aged adults aged 25 - 44 represent 17.6% (versus 32.1% regionally). The median age is estimated at 43, holding steady from the 2021 Census and exceeding the Greater Melbourne median of 37 and national median of 38 recorded at that time. Seniors aged 65+ represent the fastest-growing cohort since the Census, expanding from 17.6% to an estimated 19.6%.
Projections to 2041 indicate this senior cohort will expand by 591 residents (37%) to reach 2,204, while younger adult and child cohorts are expected to contract.
Frequently Asked Questions - Age
Data & MethodBoundaries, Sources & Method for Narre Warren North
9 of 14 data sections on this page were updated within the last 12 months — the newest current to Sep 2026.
Everything is aggregated to the SA2 boundary shown above, on a 2021 Census baseline. Only 3 sections — housing, households and cultural diversity — still wait on the 2026 Census.
The ledger — source, cycle and currency by section
| Section | Source & update cycle | Currency |
|---|---|---|
| Updated within the last 12 months 9 sections | ||
| Population | ABS, GNAF, Geoscience Australia Annual (ABS ERP) | Aug 2026 last month headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release) and updated with new dwellings from GNAF address data. Current to Aug 2026, with the 2021 Census supplying the small-area baseline. | ||
| Age profile | ABS, Geoscience Australia, State governments Annual | Aug 2026 last month headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Age cohorts are re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections, current to Aug 2026. Each cohort is held as a Census baseline and a current estimate. | ||
| Development & approvals | ABS, GNAF Monthly (ABS approvals) | Aug 2026 last month headline measures · Jul 2026 baseline |
| Property sales & rents | Valuer General, Rental Board, ABS Weekly sales, quarterly rents | Sep 2026 this month all 21 measures |
| Sales from the state Valuer General register, refreshed weekly, and rents from quarterly rental bond lodgements. Both are read live each time this page loads, current to Sep 2026. | ||
| Infrastructure projects | Infrastructure Australia, State agencies, Local governments Daily | Dec 2025 9 months ago all 6 projects tracked here |
| Project pipeline maintained continuously from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, local government and public announcements. Records are added and revised daily; this area was last updated Dec 2025. | ||
| Employment | ABS, DEWR, JSA Quarterly (ABS SALM) | Mar 2026 6 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Unemployment and labour force from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, current to Mar 2026. The growth outlook applies Department of Employment (now Jobs and Skills Australia) forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to the local industry mix, so it measures sector composition rather than local expansion and makes no allowance for population growth. Job demand comes from the same agency via its Internet Vacancy Index; industry and occupation structure from the 2021 Census. | ||
| Education | ABS, ACARA Annual (ACARA) | Aug 2026 last month headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Transport | ABS, State Transport Departments Each timetable release | Jul 2026 2 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Services & amenities | Provider directories, ACECQA Continuous | Jul 2026 2 months ago all 14 measures |
| Annual and financial-year sources 2 sections | ||
| Income | ABS, ATO Annual (ATO) | FY 2023 3 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| ATO taxable income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index. Census household income provides the distribution detail. | ||
| Health | ABS, ATO Annual | 2024 2 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Census-measured — next update: 2026 Census 3 sections No more current small-area source exists for these, so they are labelled as Census-measured rather than implied to be current. | ||
| Housing | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 30 measures |
| Households | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 18 measures |
| Cultural diversity | ABS, Geoscience Australia 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 44 measures |
"Currency" is the most recent release feeding that section. Where the Census supplies the structural baseline underneath a current headline figure, the row says so.
How the numbers are built
Population
The Census provides the small-area baseline, aggregated from mesh blocks to this boundary. It is then re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release), and new dwellings built since Census night are counted from address data — 73 validated new addresses here. The headline figure is therefore a current estimate for Aug 2026, not a 2021 count (8,241 at the 2021 Census → 8,240 now). Annual growth rates are compound (CAGR), not simple averages.
Age profile
Cohort shares are not raw Census counts. Every cohort is held as a pair — the Census baseline and a current estimate — and the split is re-based using ERP and state population projections, current to Aug 2026. Median age is the Census median plus modelled change since. Charts that show both are labelled "2021 Census vs Current Estimate".
Property sales
Sourced from the state valuation authority's sales register — current, not Census, and refreshed weekly. Medians are calculated from settled transactions in the period shown; periods with very low transaction counts are flagged or suppressed, because a handful of sales can move a median substantially.
Rents
Derived from state rental bond lodgement data, by dwelling type and bedroom count. Bonds are lodged at the start of a new tenancy, so this reflects new lettings, not the whole rented stock.
Development & infrastructure
Building approvals come from current ABS releases; development applications are collected from council and state planning portals; the infrastructure pipeline is compiled from Infrastructure Australia and local government sources. Applications are matched to this boundary by address or coordinates, so very recent lodgements may not yet appear.
Employment & income
Industry and occupation structure comes from the Census, but the headline labour-market indicators do not. Unemployment and labour force are derived from ABS Small Area Labour Markets (quarterly). The employment outlook applies Department of Employment forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to this area's own industry mix (the agency is now Jobs and Skills Australia), as does the Internet Vacancy Index used for job demand. Because it is weighted on industry composition alone, that outlook carries no allowance for local population growth — in fast-growing areas the real rise in local jobs will typically be higher. Income combines Census household income with ATO taxable-income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index.
Education, transport & amenities
School enrolments, ICSEA and performance come from ACARA's current release, not the Census. Public transport stops and service frequency are derived from GTFS timetable feeds published by state transport departments. Services and amenities are proximity and count scores built from provider directories, refreshed on their own cycle. The Census contributes only the travel-to-work and qualification measures.
Rankings and benchmarks. Where we rank this area, the comparison set is every area of the same boundary type — suburbs against suburbs, SA2s against SA2s. Benchmarks compare this area against its greater capital city region and the national figure for the same measure and period.
Limits worth knowing. Small areas carry larger error margins, and the ABS introduces small random adjustments to Census counts to protect confidentiality — so totals may not sum exactly. Estimates re-based from regional data describe the area's expected trajectory, not a direct count of it. Figures are indicative for research and are not financial, planning or valuation advice.
Cross-check us. The Census baseline for this boundary is at ABS 2021 Census QuickStats (212021299). QuickStats reports 2021 only — the figures on this page are more current wherever the ledger shows a later date.