Narre Warren North

Population growth drivers in Narre Warren North are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

Narre Warren North's population was around 8,241 people as of the 2021 Census. By Nov 2025, it increased to approximately 8,270, reflecting a growth of 29 people (0.4%) since the Census date. This increase is inferred from ABS estimated resident population data of 8,191 in June 2024 and an additional 69 validated new addresses since then. The population density was around 240 persons per square kilometer as of Nov 2025. Overseas migration primarily drove the population growth during recent periods.

AreaSearch is using ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 for areas not covered by this data. Applying growth rates by age group across all areas, the population is expected to increase by approximately 642 persons by 2041, reflecting a total increase of around 6.7% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Narre Warren North according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Narre Warren North has received approximately 25 dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 126 homes. As of FY-26, there have been 10 recorded approvals. Despite population decline, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, maintaining a balanced market with good buyer choice. New homes are being constructed at an average expected cost of $867,000, indicating a focus on the premium segment.

In FY-26, commercial approvals totalled $16.0 million, reflecting steady investment activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Narre Warren North has roughly half the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and ranks in the 60th percentile nationally for development activity, suggesting an established area with potential planning limitations. Recent building activity consists solely of detached houses, preserving low density and attracting space-seeking buyers, with around 242 people per dwelling approval. By 2041, Narre Warren North is projected to add approximately 556 residents based on AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate.

Given current development patterns, new housing supply should meet demand, offering favourable conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond projections.

Narre Warren North has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 30thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 26 projects likely to impact the area. Notable projects include Oak Ridge Residential Estate, South East Melbourne Recycled Water Supply Infrastructure Upgrades, Ellington Estate, and Hallam North and Heatherton Road Upgrade. Below is a list of those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The labour market strength in Narre Warren North positions it well ahead of most Australian regions

Narre Warren North has a skilled workforce with the construction sector prominently represented. Its unemployment rate was 2.2% in June 2025, which is 2.4% lower than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 4.1%. As of June 2025, 4,770 residents are employed. The unemployment rate in Narre Warren North is similar to Greater Melbourne's workforce participation rate of 64.1%. Major employment sectors include construction, retail trade, and health care & social assistance.

Notably, construction employment levels are at 2.1 times the regional average. However, professional & technical services have limited presence with only 6.4% employment compared to the regional average of 10.1%. The area may offer limited local employment opportunities based on Census data analysis. Over a 12-month period ending in June 2025, employment increased by 4.1%, while the labour force grew by 4.4%, leading to an unemployment rate rise of 0.3 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment grow by 3.5% and unemployment rise by 0.5 percentage points during the same period. State-level data for Victoria as of Nov-25 shows employment growth of 1.13% year-on-year, adding 41,950 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%. Nationally, employment grew by 0.14%, and the unemployment rate was 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Narre Warren North's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.2% over five years and 12.8% over ten years, assuming constant population projections for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

Narre Warren North SA2 had an extremely high national income level according to latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year ended June 30, 2022. The median income among taxpayers was $55,809 and the average income stood at $79,510. These figures compared to those for Greater Melbourne which were $54,892 and $73,761 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since June 30, 2022, current estimates would be approximately $62,595 (median) and $89,178 (average) as of September 2025. Census data revealed household incomes ranked exceptionally at the 93rd percentile with $2,659 weekly income, though personal income ranked lower at the 52nd percentile. The earnings profile showed that 29.8% of residents (2,464 people) earned between $1,500 and $2,999 weekly, reflecting patterns seen in the broader area where 32.8% similarly occupied this range. A significant 43.0% earned above $3,000 weekly, indicating pockets of prosperity driving robust local economic activity. After housing costs, residents retained 88.8% of income, reflecting strong purchasing power and the area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 8th decile.

Narre Warren North is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Narre Warren North's dwellings, as per the latest Census, were 99.1% houses and 0.8% other types (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), contrasting with Melbourne metro's 88.1% houses and 11.8% other dwellings. Home ownership in Narre Warren North stood at 44.4%, with mortgaged properties at 51.5% and rented ones at 4.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,372, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $1,900. Median weekly rent in Narre Warren North was $400, compared to Melbourne metro's $370. Nationally, Narre Warren North's mortgage repayments exceeded the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were higher than the national figure of $375.

Narre Warren North features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 90.2% of all households, including 53.4% couples with children, 29.3% couples without children, and 6.9% single parent families. Non-family households account for 9.8%, with lone person households at 8.5% and group households comprising 1.3%. The median household size is 3.3 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.9.

The educational profile of Narre Warren North exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 24.8%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 18.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.6%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 34.4% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.6%) and certificates (22.8%). Educational participation is high at 32.1%, comprising primary education (10.3%), secondary education (10.0%), and tertiary education (6.0%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 32.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.3% in primary education, 10.0% in secondary education, and 6.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Narre Warren North has 19 active public transport stops. All of these are bus stops. They are served by 13 different routes.

Together, these routes provide 1,498 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of transport is limited in Narre Warren North. Residents typically live 651 meters away from the nearest stop. On average, there are 214 trips per day across all routes. This means each stop gets about 78 weekly trips.

Narre Warren North's residents are extremely healthy with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Narre Warren North. Both young and old age cohorts have low prevalence of common health conditions.

The rate of private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 59% of the total population (4,912 people), compared to 53.6% across Greater Melbourne. The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and asthma, impacting 7.1 and 6.1% of residents respectively. A total of 72.8% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 72.0% across Greater Melbourne. As of 2021, 19.2% of residents are aged 65 and over (1,591 people), which is higher than the 15.7% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Narre Warren North was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Narre Warren North, as per the 2016 Census, had a higher cultural diversity than most local areas, with 29.0% of its residents born overseas and 27.3% speaking languages other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Narre Warren North, comprising 54.8% of the population. However, Islam showed an overrepresentation compared to Greater Melbourne, making up 8.4% versus 11.4%.

The top three ancestry groups were Australian (22.6%), English (20.7%), and Other (15.6%). Notably, Dutch ancestry was higher at 2.7%, while Hungarian was lower at 0.6% compared to regional averages. Sri Lankan ancestry was also lower at 1.3%.

Narre Warren North's median age exceeds the national pattern

The median age in Narre Warren North is 43 years, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and exceeds the national average of 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 55-64 years old make up 15.9%, while those aged 25-34 years old constitute only 8.5%. Between 2021 and present, the population aged 15-24 has grown from 15.7% to 17.0%, and the 75-84 age group has increased from 5.0% to 6.2%. Conversely, the 35-44 age group has decreased from 10.3% to 9.0%, and the 5-14 age group has dropped from 13.5% to 12.5%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Narre Warren North's age structure. The 75-84 age cohort is projected to rise by 277 people (54%), from 510 to 788. Notably, the combined age groups of 65 and above will account for 82% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. Conversely, the 25-34 and 45-54 age cohorts are expected to experience population declines.