Narre Warren North

Population growth drivers in Narre Warren North are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Narre Warren North's population is around 8,459 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 218 people (2.6%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 8,241 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 8,184 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 69 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 245 persons per square kilometer, providing significant space per person and potential room for further development. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which was essentially the sole driver of population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. As we examine future population trends, a population increase just below the median of statistical areas across the nation is expected, with the area expected to increase by 642 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 4.3% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Narre Warren North according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Narre Warren North has experienced around 25 dwellings receiving development approval each year, totalling 126 homes over the past 5 financial years. So far in FY-26, 21 approvals have been recorded. As the area has experienced population decline, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, creating a well-balanced market with good buyer choice, while new homes are being built at an average value of $862,000, demonstrating a developer focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties. Additionally, $16.0 million in commercial approvals have been registered this financial year, indicating steady commercial investment activity.

When measured against Greater Melbourne, Narre Warren North has around half the rate of new dwelling approvals per person while it places among the 60th percentile of areas assessed nationally, though development activity has picked up in recent periods. This is similarly under the national average, indicating the area's established nature and suggesting potential planning limitations. Meanwhile, recent building activity consists entirely of detached houses, preserving the area's low density nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers. With around 242 people per dwelling approval, Narre Warren North shows characteristics of a low density area.

Future projections show Narre Warren North adding 367 residents by 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Narre Warren North has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 45thth percentile nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total, 26 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include Oak Ridge Residential Estate, Ellington Estate, South East Melbourne Recycled Water Supply Infrastructure Upgrades, and Hallam North and Heatherton Road Upgrade, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis reveals Narre Warren North significantly outperforming the majority of regions assessed nationwide

Narre Warren North possesses a skilled workforce, with the construction sector a particular standout in terms of representation, an unemployment rate of just 2.4%, and 4.1% in estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 4,723 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 2.3% below Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%, and workforce participation is broadly similar to Greater Melbourne's 71.3%. Based on Census responses, a high 25.9% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Employment among residents is concentrated in construction, retail trade, and health care & social assistance. The area demonstrates a particularly notable concentration in construction, with employment levels at 2.1 times the regional average. Meanwhile, professional & technical services have a limited presence with 6.4% employment compared to 10.1% regionally. The area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of the Census working population versus the resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, the 12-month period saw employment increasing by 4.1% alongside the labour force increasing by 4.6%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.4 percentage points. This contrasts with Greater Melbourne, where employment rose by 2.4%, the labour force grew by 2.8%, and unemployment rose 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Narre Warren North. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Narre Warren North's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.2% over five years and 12.8% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

The Narre Warren North SA2's income level is extremely high nationally according to the latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for FY-23. The Narre Warren North SA2's median income among taxpayers is $57,088 and the average income stands at $80,611, which compares to figures for Greater Melbourne's of $57,688 and $75,164 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $61,798 (median) and $87,261 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals household incomes rank exceptionally at the 93rd percentile ($2,659 weekly), though personal income ranks lower at the 52nd percentile. The earnings profile shows the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket dominates with 29.8% of residents (2,520 people), reflecting patterns seen in the broader area where 32.8% similarly occupy this range. A significant 43.0% earn above $3,000 weekly, reflecting pockets of prosperity that drive robust local economic activity. After housing costs, residents retain 88.8% of income, reflecting strong purchasing power and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Narre Warren North is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within Narre Warren North, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 99.1% houses and 0.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Narre Warren North was well beyond that of Melbourne metro, at 44.4%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (51.5%) or rented (4.1%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well above the Melbourne metro average at $2,372, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $400, compared to Melbourne metro's $2,000 and $390. Nationally, Narre Warren North's mortgage repayments are significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are exceeding the national figure of $375.

Narre Warren North features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 90.2% of all households, comprising 53.4% couples with children, 29.3% couples without children, and 6.9% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 9.8%, with lone person households at 8.5% and group households comprising 1.3% of the total. The median household size of 3.3 people is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

The educational profile of Narre Warren North exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (24.8%) substantially below the Greater Melbourne average of 37.0%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 18.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.6%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 34.4% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (11.6%) and certificates (22.8%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 32.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.3% in primary education, 10.0% in secondary education, and 6.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 20 active transport stops operating within Narre Warren North, comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 13 individual routes, collectively providing 1,015 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as limited, with residents typically located 650 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 96%. Vehicle ownership averages 2.6 per dwelling, which is above the regional average. A high 25.9% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 145 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 50 weekly trips per individual stop.

Narre Warren North's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with a fairly standard level of common health conditions seen across both young and old age cohorts

Health data indicates relatively positive outcomes for Narre Warren North residents, with AreaSearch's analysis of mortality rates and health conditions showing results broadly in line with national benchmarks. A fairly standard level of common health conditions is seen across both young and old age cohorts, and the rate of private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 60% of the total population (5,033 people), compared to 56.7% across Greater Melbourne.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and asthma, impacting 7.1 and 6.1% of residents, respectively, while 72.8% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents are notably healthy with low chronic condition prevalence. The area has 20.3% of residents aged 65 and over (1,713 people), which is higher than the 15.1% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, with national rankings even higher than the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Narre Warren North was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Narre Warren North is more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets, with 29.0% of its population born overseas and 27.3% speaking a language other than English at home. The main religion in Narre Warren North is Christianity, which makes up 54.8% of the population. However, the most apparent overrepresentation is in Islam, which comprises 8.4% of the population, compared to 5.6% across Greater Melbourne.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Narre Warren North are Australian, comprising 22.6% of the population, English, comprising 20.7% of the population, and Other, comprising 15.6% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Dutch is notably overrepresented at 2.7% of Narre Warren North (vs 1.2% regionally), Hungarian at 0.6% (vs 0.3%) and Sri Lankan at 1.3% (vs 0.8%).

Narre Warren North's median age exceeds the national pattern

The 43-year median age in Narre Warren North is considerably higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 as well as substantially exceeding the 38-year national average. The age profile shows 55 - 64 year-olds are particularly prominent (15.8%), while the 25 - 34 group is comparatively smaller (8.2%) than in Greater Melbourne. In the period since 2021, the 15 to 24 age group has grown from 15.7% to 17.4% of the population, while the 75 to 84 cohort increased from 5.0% to 6.6%. Conversely, the 5 to 14 cohort has declined from 13.5% to 12.0% and the 35 to 44 group dropped from 10.3% to 8.8%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections reveal significant shifts in Narre Warren North's age structure. The 75 to 84 age cohort is projected to increase solidly, expanding by 233 people (42%) from 554 to 788. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 91% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. On the other hand, the 25 to 34 and 45 to 54 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.