Narre Warren South

An assessment of population growth drivers in Narre Warren South reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Feb 2026, the population of the suburb of Narre Warren South is estimated at around 31,501, reflecting an increase of 592 people since the 2021 Census. This increase represents a growth rate of 1.9%. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of the resident population at 31,489 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 92 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population results in a density ratio of 2,381 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed approximately 64.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, making adjustments employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends project an above median growth rate for the suburb of Narre Warren South, with an expected increase of 4,872 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections. This reflects a total increase of 15.4% over the 17-year period from 2026 to 2041.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Narre Warren South, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers in Narre Warren South shows an average of around 53 new dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 267 homes. As of FY-26 so far, 16 approvals have been recorded. The area has experienced population decline, maintaining adequate housing supply relative to demand, resulting in a balanced market with good buyer choice. New properties are constructed at an average expected construction cost value of $509,000, indicating a focus on the premium segment.

In FY-26, $1.1 million in commercial approvals have been registered, reflecting the area's residential nature. Current development consists of 75.0% detached houses and 25.0% attached dwellings, preserving the suburban character while responding to evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs, marking a significant shift from existing patterns (currently 93.0% houses). With around 1652 people per dwelling approval, Narre Warren South indicates a highly mature market.

According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, the area is projected to add approximately 4860 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Narre Warren South has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 37 projects likely to impact the area. Key projects include Hunt Club Village Shopping Centre Expansion, Kala Primary School (formerly Casey Central Primary School - interim name), Berwick South Development Plan, and Hunt Club Estate. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Narre Warren South remain below the national average according to AreaSearch analysis

Narre Warren South has a skilled workforce with the construction sector being notably prominent. The unemployment rate was 5.8% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 3.7%. As of December 2025, 17,286 residents were employed, while the unemployment rate was 1.0% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%.

Workforce participation was similar to Greater Melbourne's at 71.3%. According to Census responses, 20.6% of residents worked from home. The dominant employment sectors included health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Manufacturing showed strong specialization with an employment share of 1.6 times the regional level, while professional & technical services had lower representation at 5.2%.

During the year to December 2025, employment levels increased by 3.7% and labour force by 4.6%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate by 0.9 percentage points. By comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 2.4% and unemployment rising by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that Narre Warren South's employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 12.8% over ten years, based on industry-specific projections applied to the local employment mix.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ending 30 June 2023 shows median income in Narre Warren South is $51,185 and average income is $60,683. This contrasts with Greater Melbourne's median income of $57,688 and average income of $75,164 in the same period. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year ending 30 June 2023, estimated median income as of September 2025 would be approximately $55,408 and average income would be around $65,689. According to the 2021 Census, household income ranks at the 75th percentile ($2,158 weekly) and personal income is at the 38th percentile in Narre Warren South. Income brackets indicate that 40.3% of residents (12,694 people) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket, consistent with broader trends across Melbourne's metropolitan region where 32.8% are in the same category. High housing costs consume 15.3% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 76th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Narre Warren South is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Narre Warren South's dwellings, as per the latest Census, were 93.0% houses and 6.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Narre Warren South was at 24.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 58.5% and rented ones at 16.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,937, below Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. Median weekly rent in Narre Warren South was $401, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Narre Warren South's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Narre Warren South features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households make up 88.6% of all households, consisting of 55.6% couples with children, 19.5% couples without children, and 12.7% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 11.4%, with lone person households at 10.0% and group households comprising 1.4%. The median household size is 3.4 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Educational attainment in Narre Warren South aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 22.1%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent at 15.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.9%) and graduate diplomas (2.0%). Vocational credentials are held by 33.1% of residents aged 15 and above, with advanced diplomas at 12.2% and certificates at 20.9%. Educational participation is high, with 34.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes secondary education (11.2%), primary education (11.1%), and tertiary education (5.3%).

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Narre Warren South has 110 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 10 different routes that together facilitate 2,065 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically living 235 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outside Narre Warren South, and cars remain the primary mode of transportation at 92%. On average, there are 2.0 vehicles per dwelling, which is higher than the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, 20.6% of residents work from home, a figure that may have been influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

The service frequency averages 295 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 18 weekly trips per stop. A map accompanies this data, showing the 100 nearest stops to the location's centrepoint.

Narre Warren South's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with a fairly standard level of common health conditions seen across both young and old age cohorts

Narre Warren South's health data shows positive outcomes, with mortality rates and health conditions similar to national benchmarks. Common health issues affect both young and old residents equally.

Private health cover is relatively low at 51% (~16,021 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 56.7%. Asthma and mental health issues are most common, affecting 7.2 and 6.3% respectively; 75.4% report no medical ailments, higher than Greater Melbourne's 72.6%. Under-65 residents have better-than-average health outcomes. The area has 11.7% of residents aged 65 and over (3,685 people), lower than Greater Melbourne's 15.1%. Senior health outcomes are above average, aligning with national rankings for the general population.

Narre Warren South is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Narre Warren South has high cultural diversity, with 42.0% of its population born overseas and 42.4% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the main religion in Narre Warren South, comprising 42.6% of people. Islam is overrepresented, making up 16.8%, compared to Greater Melbourne's average of 5.6%.

In ancestry, Other is substantially higher at 26.3%, Australian is 18.5%, and English is 17.3%. Sri Lankan (2.2%), Hungarian (0.5%), and Samoan (0.9%) groups are notably overrepresented compared to regional averages of 0.8%, 0.3%, and 0.3% respectively.

Narre Warren South hosts a young demographic, positioning it in the bottom quartile nationwide

Narre Warren South's median age is 34 years, which is lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and Australia's national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Narre Warren South has a higher proportion of residents aged 15-24 (18.0%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (11.4%). This concentration of 15-24 year-olds is significantly higher than the national average of 12.5%. Between the 2021 Census and the present, the proportion of residents aged 65 to 74 has increased from 5.8% to 7.2%, while the 15 to 24 age group has risen from 16.8% to 18.0%. Conversely, the proportions of residents aged 5 to 14 and 45 to 54 have decreased, from 15.9% to 14.4% and from 15.5% to 14.0%, respectively. Population forecasts for Narre Warren South indicate substantial demographic changes by the year 2041. The 65 to 74 age group is projected to grow significantly, by 43%, adding 975 residents to reach a total of 3,244. In contrast, populations in the 5 to 14 and 0 to 4 age groups are forecasted to decline.