Narre Warren South

An assessment of population growth drivers in Narre Warren South reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

The population of the Narre Warren South statistical area (Lv2) is estimated to be around 31,497 as of November 2025. This represents an increase of 588 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 30,909. The latest estimate by AreaSearch, based on examination of ERP data released by the ABS in June 2024 and additional validated new addresses, is 31,489. This results in a density ratio of 2,380 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed approximately 64.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 for areas not covered by this data, adjusting using weighted aggregation methods. Future population trends project an above median growth for the Narre Warren South (SA2), expected to increase by 4,842 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a total increase of 15.0% over these 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Narre Warren South, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, shows Narre Warren South averaged around 54 new dwelling approvals each year over the past 5 financial years to June 2021. This totals an estimated 273 homes. As of July 2026 (FY-26), 17 approvals have been recorded. During this period, Narre Warren South has experienced population decline, yet housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, resulting in a well-balanced market with good buyer choice.

New properties are constructed at an average expected construction cost value of $506,000, indicating a focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties. In FY-26, $1.1 million in commercial approvals have been registered, reflecting the area's residential nature. New development consists of 75.0% detached houses and 25.0% attached dwellings, preserving the area's suburban character while also responding to evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs.

This marks a shift from existing housing patterns (currently 93.0% houses), suggesting diminishing developable land availability. With around 1531 people per dwelling approval, Narre Warren South reflects a highly mature market. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Narre Warren South is projected to add 4,712 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Narre Warren South has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 37 projects that may impact the region. Notable initiatives include Hunt Club Village Shopping Centre Expansion, Kala Primary School (previously Casey Central Primary School - interim name), Berwick South Development Plan, and Hunt Club Estate. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Narre Warren South remain below the national average according to AreaSearch analysis

Narre Warren South's skilled workforce is notable, with the construction sector prominently represented. The unemployment rate in the area was 5.6% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 3.7%.

As of September 2025, there are 17,149 residents employed, while the unemployment rate is 0.9% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%. Workforce participation is at 67.0%, slightly above Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. The dominant employment sectors among residents include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Manufacturing shows strong specialization with an employment share of 1.6 times the regional level.

Conversely, professional & technical services have lower representation at 5.2% compared to the regional average of 10.1%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited as indicated by Census data on working population versus resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 3.7% while labour force grew by 4.5%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.7 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 3.0%, labour force growth of 3.3%, with unemployment rising by 0.3 percentage points. State-level data from 25-Nov-25 shows Victoria's employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, adding 41,950 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%. National employment forecasts from May-25 suggest total employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Narre Warren South's employment mix indicates local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 12.8% over ten years, based on simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows that Narre Warren South has an income below the national average. The median income is $51,185 and the average income is $60,683. In comparison, Greater Melbourne has a median income of $57,688 and an average income of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Narre Warren South would be approximately $55,408 (median) and $65,689 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census, household income ranks at the 75th percentile ($2,158 weekly), while personal income is at the 38th percentile. The dominant income bracket is $1,500 - 2,999 with 40.3% of residents (12,693 people). High housing costs consume 15.3% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 76th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Narre Warren South is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile

Narre Warren South's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 93.0% houses and 6.9% other dwellings such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. Home ownership in Narre Warren South stood at 24.6%, with 58.5% of dwellings under mortgage and 16.9% rented out. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,937, while the median weekly rent was recorded as $401. Nationally, Narre Warren South's mortgage repayments exceeded the Australian average of $1,863, and rents surpassed the national figure of $375.

Narre Warren South features high concentrations of family households, with a median household size of 3.4 people

Family households constitute 88.6% of all households, including 55.6% couples with children, 19.5% couples without children, and 12.7% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 11.4%, made up of 10.0% lone person households and 1.4% group households. The median household size is 3.4 people.

Educational attainment in Narre Warren South aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 22.1%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 15.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.9%) and graduate diplomas (2.0%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 33.1% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas (12.2%) and certificates (20.9%). Educational participation is high at 34.8%, including secondary education (11.2%), primary education (11.1%), and tertiary education (5.3%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 34.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.2% in secondary education, 11.1% in primary education, and 5.3% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Narre Warren South has 110 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These are served by 10 different routes that together facilitate 2,065 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is deemed good, with residents on average being situated 235 meters from the nearest stop.

On a daily basis, there are an average of 295 trips across all routes, which equates to about 18 weekly trips per individual stop.

Narre Warren South's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Narre Warren South's health outcomes show excellent results, particularly for younger populations with low prevalence rates for common health conditions.

Private health cover stands at approximately 51% of its total population (~16,019 people). The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma (7.2%) and mental health issues (6.3%), while 75.4% of residents report no medical ailments, contrasting with Greater Melbourne's 0%. The area has 10.8% seniors (3,401 people), requiring more attention due to above-average health outcomes compared to the broader population.

Narre Warren South is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Narre Warren South has a high level of cultural diversity, with 42.0% of its population born overseas and 42.4% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Narre Warren South, making up 42.6% of the population. Islam is overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne, comprising 16.8% of Narre Warren South's population.

The top three ancestry groups are Other (26.3%), Australian (18.5%), and English (17.3%). Sri Lankan, Hungarian, and Samoan ethnicities are notably overrepresented in Narre Warren South compared to regional averages: Sri Lankan at 2.2%, Hungarian at 0.5%, and Samoan at 0.9%.

Narre Warren South hosts a young demographic, positioning it in the bottom quartile nationwide

Narre Warren South's median age is 34 years, which is lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and Australia's national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Narre Warren South has a higher proportion of residents aged 15-24 (18.0%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (11.6%). This concentration of 15-24 year-olds is significantly higher than the national average of 12.5%. From the 2021 Census to present, the proportion of residents aged 15-24 has increased from 16.8% to 18.0%, while the proportion of those aged 5-14 has decreased from 15.9% to 14.6%. Additionally, the proportion of residents aged 45-54 has dropped from 15.5% to 14.3%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate substantial demographic changes in Narre Warren South. The 65-74 age cohort is projected to grow by 53%, adding 1,115 residents to reach a total of 3,226. Residents aged 65 and above will drive 53% of population growth, highlighting the trend towards an aging demographic. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 0-4 and 5-14 age cohorts.