Narre Warren South

An assessment of population growth drivers in Narre Warren South reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

The population of Narre Warren South is estimated at 31,417 as of May 2026, reflecting an increase of 508 people since the 2021 Census. The population was recorded as 30,909 in the 2021 Census. This increase is inferred from AreaSearch's estimate using ERP data released by ABS in June 2025 and additional validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density of Narre Warren South is 2,374 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed approximately 64.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered, it utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing weighted aggregation methods from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends project an above median growth, with Narre Warren South expected to increase by 4,678 persons to 2041, reflecting a total increase of 14.9% over the 16-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Narre Warren South, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers in Narre Warren South shows an average of 53 new dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling approximately 267 homes. As of FY-2026, 21 approvals have been recorded. The area has experienced population decline, yet housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, resulting in a balanced market with good buyer choice. New properties are constructed at an average expected construction cost value of $509,000, indicating a focus on the premium segment.

This financial year has seen $1.1 million in commercial approvals, reflecting the area's residential nature. Development consists of 75.0% detached houses and 25.0% attached dwellings, preserving the suburban character while responding to evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs. This marks a shift from the current 93.0% houses, suggesting diminishing developable land availability.

With around 1657 people per dwelling approval, Narre Warren South reflects a mature market. AreaSearch projects an addition of 4,678 residents by 2041. If development rates continue as is, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Narre Warren South has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Thirty-nine projects identified by AreaSearch are expected to impact the area, significantly influencing its performance through changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. Key projects include Hunt Club Village Shopping Centre Expansion, Casey Central Town Centre Precinct Structure Plan, Kala Primary School (formerly Casey Central Primary School - interim name), and Berwick South Development Plan. The following list details those likely to be most relevant:.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Narre Warren South remain below the national average according to AreaSearch analysis

Narre Warren South's skilled workforce is notable, particularly in the construction sector. Its unemployment rate was 5.8% with an estimated employment growth of 3.7% over the year ending December 2021. As of December 2025, 17,322 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 6.8%, slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's 4.8%.

Workforce participation was 72.9%, close to Greater Melbourne's 69.9%. Home-based work accounted for 20.6% of jobs based on Census data, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Key employment sectors were health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Manufacturing showed strong specialization with an employment share 1.6 times the regional average.

Conversely, professional & technical services had lower representation at 5.2% compared to the regional average of 10.1%. Employment opportunities locally appeared limited based on Census data comparing working population to resident population. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment levels increased by 3.7%, labour force grew by 4.6%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.9 percentage points. Greater Melbourne recorded lower growth rates with employment up 2.4% and unemployment rising 0.3 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia (May-25) project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but sector-specific growth varies significantly. Applying these projections to Narre Warren South's employment mix suggests local employment could grow by 6.1% in five years and 12.8% in ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ending June 2023 shows that Narre Warren South has an income below the national average. The median income is $51,185 and the average income stands at $60,683. In comparison, Greater Melbourne's figures are a median income of $57,688 and an average income of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth from June 2023 to March 2026 (an estimated increase of 9.62%), current estimates would be approximately $56,109 for median income and $66,521 for average income as of March 2026. According to the 2021 Census, Narre Warren South's household income ranks at the 75th percentile ($2,158 weekly), while personal income sits at the 38th percentile. Income brackets indicate that the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket dominates with 40.3% of residents (12,661 people). High housing costs consume 15.3% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 76th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Narre Warren South is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Narre Warren South's dwellings, as per the latest Census, were 93.0% houses and 6.9% other dwellings. Melbourne metro had 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Narre Warren South was 24.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 58.5% and rented ones at 16.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,937, below Melbourne metro's $2,000. Median weekly rent was $401, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Narre Warren South's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Narre Warren South features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 88.6% of all households, including 55.6% couples with children, 19.5% couples without children, and 12.7% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 11.4%, with lone person households at 10.0% and group households making up 1.4%. The median household size is 3.4 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Educational attainment in Narre Warren South aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 22.1%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 15.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.9%) and graduate diplomas (2.0%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 33.1% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (12.2%) and certificates (20.9%). Educational participation is high, with 34.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, comprising secondary education (11.2%), primary education (11.1%), and tertiary education (5.3%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 34.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.2% in secondary education, 11.1% in primary education, and 5.3% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Narre Warren South has 110 active public transport stops, all serving buses. These stops are covered by ten different routes that collectively facilitate 2,065 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of transport in the area is rated as good, with residents typically residing 235 meters away from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outwards due to its residential nature, with cars being the primary mode of transportation at 92%. On average, there are 2.0 vehicles per dwelling, which is higher than the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, 20.6% of residents work from home, a figure that may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

The service frequency averages 295 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 18 weekly trips per individual stop. A map accompanies this data, displaying the 100 nearest stops to the location's centrepoint.

Narre Warren South's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with a fairly standard level of common health conditions seen across both young and old age cohorts

Narre Warren South residents have relatively positive health outcomes according to health data analysis by AreaSearch. Mortality rates and health conditions are largely in line with national benchmarks for the area.

Common health conditions are seen across both young and old age cohorts at a fairly standard level. Private health cover is relatively low, with approximately 51% of the total population (~15,978 people) having it, compared to 56.7% in Greater Melbourne. The most common medical conditions are asthma (7.2%) and mental health issues (6.3%). 75.4% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Under-65 population health outcomes are better than average. The area has 11.3% of residents aged 65 and over (3,550 people), lower than the 15.0% in Greater Melbourne. Senior health outcomes are above average, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Narre Warren South is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Narre Warren South has a high level of cultural diversity, with 42.0% of its population born overseas and 42.4% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Narre Warren South, accounting for 42.6% of people. Islam is significantly overrepresented compared to the Greater Melbourne average, comprising 16.8% of the population.

The top three ancestry groups are Other (26.3%), Australian (18.5%), and English (17.3%). Notably, Sri Lankan (2.2%) Hungarian (0.5%) and Samoan (0.9%) ethnicities are overrepresented compared to regional averages.

Narre Warren South hosts a young demographic, positioning it in the bottom quartile nationwide

Narre Warren South's median age is 34 years, which is lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and Australia's national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Narre Warren South has a higher proportion of residents aged 15-24 (18.0%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (11.9%). This concentration of 15-24 year-olds is significantly higher than the national average of 12.7%. Between the 2021 Census and the latest data, the proportion of residents aged 65 to 74 has increased from 5.8% to 7.0%, while the 15 to 24 cohort has risen from 16.8% to 18.0%. Conversely, the proportions of residents aged 5 to 14 and 45 to 54 have decreased, from 15.9% to 14.1% and from 15.5% to 14.0%, respectively. Population forecasts for Narre Warren South indicate significant demographic changes by the year 2041. The 65 to 74 age group is projected to grow substantially, with an increase of 43% adding 954 residents to reach a total of 3,154. In contrast, population declines are forecast for the 35 to 44 and 5 to 14 age groups.