Narre Warren South

An assessment of population growth drivers in Narre Warren South reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

The population of Narre Warren South, as estimated by AreaSearch based on ABS updates and new addresses validated since the 2021 Census, is approximately 31,541 as of November 2025. This figure represents an increase of 632 people from the previous count of 30,909 in 2021, reflecting a growth rate of 2.0%. The estimated resident population (ERP) for Narre Warren South, based on AreaSearch's examination of ABS data released in June 2024, is 31,514. This estimate includes an additional 92 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density ratio is 2,384 persons per square kilometer, placing Narre Warren South in the upper quartile compared to national locations assessed by AreaSearch.

Overseas migration contributed approximately 64.0% of overall population gains during recent periods. AreaSearch's projections for Narre Warren South are based on ABS/Geoscience Australia data released in 2024, with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends project an above median growth rate for the suburb, with an expected increase of 4,844 persons by 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections. This represents a total increase of 14.8% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Narre Warren South, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Narre Warren South has averaged approximately 53 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, from FY18 to FY22. This totals an estimated 267 homes. In FY26 so far, 15 approvals have been recorded. The area's population has declined while housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, resulting in a balanced market with good buyer choice.

New properties are constructed at an average expected construction cost value of $503,000. This year, there have also been commercial approvals totaling $254,000, indicating the area's residential nature. Building activity shows 77.0% detached houses and 23.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's suburban character focused on family homes.

This marks a shift from the current housing pattern of 93.0% houses, suggesting decreasing developable land availability and responding to evolving lifestyle preferences and affordability needs. The location has approximately 937 people per dwelling approval, indicating an established market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Narre Warren South is projected to grow by 4,670 residents by 2041. If current construction levels continue, housing supply may lag behind population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price growth.

Narre Warren South has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 38 projects likely impacting the area. Notable ones are Hunt Club Village Shopping Centre Expansion, Kala Primary School (formerly Casey Central Primary School - interim name), Berwick South Development Plan, and Hunt Club Estate. Below is a list of those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Narre Warren South has seen below average employment performance when compared to national benchmarks

Narre Warren South has a skilled workforce with the construction sector being notably represented. The unemployment rate was 5.5% as of June 2025, which is 0.9% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 3.4%. There are 17,407 residents currently employed in the area. The key industries for employment among residents are health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Manufacturing shows particularly strong specialization with an employment share of 1.6 times the regional level.

However, professional & technical services employ only 5.2% of local workers compared to Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 3.4%, labour force grew by 4.4%, resulting in an unemployment rise of 1.0 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne saw employment grow by 3.5%, labour force expand by 4.0%, and unemployment rise by 0.5 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project that national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Narre Warren South's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 12.8% over ten years, although this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localised population projections.

The economic profile demonstrates above-average performance, with income metrics exceeding national benchmarks based on AreaSearch comparative assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ended 30 June 2022 shows median income in Narre Warren South was $51,179 and average income was $60,695. In Greater Melbourne, the median income was $54,892 and the average income was $73,761. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% from financial year ended 30 June 2022 to September 2025, estimated current incomes would be approximately $57,402 (median) and $68,076 (average). According to Census 2021 income data, household income ranks at the 75th percentile ($2,158 weekly), with personal income at the 38th percentile. The largest earnings segment comprises 40.3% earning $1,500 - 2,999 weekly (12,711 residents). High housing costs consume 15.3% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 76th percentile and SEIFA income ranking places Narre Warren South in the 5th decile.

Narre Warren South is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Narre Warren South's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 93.0% houses and 6.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). Home ownership in Narre Warren South was at 24.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 58.5% and rented ones at 16.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,937, aligning with Melbourne metro's average. Median weekly rent was $401. Nationally, Narre Warren South's mortgage repayments exceeded the Australian average of $1,863, while rents surpassed the national figure of $375.

Narre Warren South features high concentrations of family households, with a median household size of 3.4 people

Family households comprise 88.6% of all households, including 55.6% couples with children, 19.5% couples without children, and 12.7% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 11.4%, with lone person households at 10.0% and group households comprising 1.4%. The median household size is 3.4 people.

Educational attainment in Narre Warren South aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The university qualification rate in the area is 22.1%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 15.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.9%) and graduate diplomas (2.0%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 33.1% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (12.2%) and certificates (20.9%). Educational participation is high at 34.8%, comprising secondary education (11.2%), primary education (11.1%), and tertiary education (5.3%).

Six schools operate in Narre Warren South, educating approximately 5,176 students, with typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1003) and balanced educational opportunities. The mix includes three primary and three K-12 schools, providing 16.4 school places per 100 residents to serve local and surrounding communities. Note: for schools showing 'n/a' in enrolments, please refer to the parent campus.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Narre Warren South has 110 operational public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by ten different routes that together facilitate 3,260 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of public transport in the area is considered good, with residents on average being located 235 metres from their nearest transport stop.

Across all routes, there are an average of 465 trips per day, which equates to approximately 29 weekly trips per individual stop.

Narre Warren South's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Narre Warren South's health outcomes show excellent results, particularly for younger age groups with low prevalence rates for common conditions.

Private health cover is relatively low at approximately 51% of its total population (~16,044 people). The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma and mental health issues, affecting 7.2 and 6.3% of residents respectively. A significant majority, 75.4%, report being free from medical ailments, compared to 0% in Greater Melbourne. The area has 10.8% of residents aged 65 and over (3,406 people). Health outcomes among seniors are above average but require more attention than the broader population.

Narre Warren South is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Narre Warren South's cultural diversity is notable, with 42.0% of its population born overseas and 42.4% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Narre Warren South, accounting for 42.6% of people. Islam is overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne, comprising 16.8% of the population.

The top three ancestry groups are Other (26.3%), Australian (18.5%), and English (17.3%). Sri Lankan, Hungarian, and Samoan ethnicities show notable divergences in representation compared to regional averages.

Narre Warren South hosts a young demographic, positioning it in the bottom quartile nationwide

Narre Warren South's median age is 34 years, which is lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and Australia's average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Narre Warren South has a higher proportion of residents aged 15-24 (18.0%), but fewer residents aged 25-34 (11.6%). This concentration of 15-24 year-olds is above the national average of 12.5%. Between the 2021 Census and present, the proportion of residents aged 15 to 24 has increased from 16.8% to 18.0%, while the proportions of those aged 5 to 14 have decreased from 15.9% to 14.6%, and those aged 45 to 54 have dropped from 15.5% to 14.3%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic changes in Narre Warren South. The 65-74 age cohort is projected to grow by 53%, adding 1,112 residents and reaching a total of 3,226. Residents aged 65 and above will drive 53% of population growth, indicating a trend towards demographic aging. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 35-44 age cohort and the 0-4 age cohort.