Narre Warren South

An assessment of population growth drivers in Narre Warren South reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

The population of Narre Warren South is estimated at approximately 31,501 as of February 2026. This figure reflects an increase of 592 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 30,909. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of the resident population at 31,489 in June 2024, based on examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS and an additional 92 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 2,381 persons per square kilometer, placing Narre Warren South in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed approximately 64.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is using ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Future population trends project an above median growth for the suburb by 2041, with an expected increase of 4,835 persons, reflecting a total increase of 14.9% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Narre Warren South, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Narre Warren South averaged approximately 54 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 273 homes. As of FY-26 so far, 17 approvals have been recorded. Despite population decline in the area, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, resulting in a balanced market with good buyer choice. New properties are constructed at an average expected construction cost value of $506,000, indicating a focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties.

This financial year, $1.1 million in commercial approvals have been registered, reflecting the area's residential nature. Current development consists of 75.0% detached houses and 25.0% attached dwellings, preserving the suburban character while responding to evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs, marking a significant shift from existing housing patterns (currently 93.0% houses). With around 1531 people per dwelling approval, Narre Warren South indicates a highly mature market.

According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, the area is projected to add 4,701 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Narre Warren South has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 37 projects that could impact this region. Notable projects include Hunt Club Village Shopping Centre Expansion, Kala Primary School (formerly Casey Central Primary School - interim name), Berwick South Development Plan, and Hunt Club Estate. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Narre Warren South remain below the national average according to AreaSearch analysis

Narre Warren South has a skilled workforce with notable representation in the construction sector. Its unemployment rate was 5.6% as of September 2025. Employment growth over the past year is estimated at 3.8%.

The area's unemployment rate is 0.9% higher than Greater Melbourne's, which stands at 4.7%. Workforce participation is similar to Greater Melbourne's rate of 71.0%. Approximately 20.6% of residents work from home, based on Census responses. Dominant employment sectors include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade.

Manufacturing shows strong specialization with an employment share of 1.6 times the regional level. Conversely, professional & technical services have lower representation at 5.2%, compared to the regional average of 10.1%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited as indicated by the count of working population versus resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 3.8% while labour force grew by 4.5%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.7 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 3.0%, labour force growth of 3.3%, with unemployment rising by 0.3 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Narre Warren South's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 12.8% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ending June 2023 shows median income in Narre Warren South is $51,185 and average income is $60,683. This is lower than Greater Melbourne's median of $57,688 and average of $75,164. Using Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year ending June 2023, estimated median income for September 2025 would be approximately $55,408 and average income $65,689. According to the 2021 Census, Narre Warren South's household income ranks at the 75th percentile ($2,158 weekly) and personal income at the 38th percentile. Income brackets indicate that 40.3% of residents (12,694 people) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket, consistent with metropolitan trends showing 32.8%. Housing costs consume 15.3% of income but strong earnings place disposable income at the 76th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Narre Warren South is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Narre Warren South's dwellings, as per the latest Census, were predominantly houses at 93.0%, with other types (semi-detached, apartments, 'other') making up 6.9%. This contrasts with Melbourne metro's housing percentage of 67.9% and other dwellings at 32.1%. Home ownership in Narre Warren South stood at 24.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 58.5% and rented ones at 16.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,937, below Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. The median weekly rent in Narre Warren South was $401, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Narre Warren South's mortgage repayments were higher at $1,937 than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were also higher at $401 compared to the national figure of $375.

Narre Warren South features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 88.6% of all households, consisting of 55.6% couples with children, 19.5% couples without children, and 12.7% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 11.4%, with lone person households at 10.0% and group households making up 1.4% of the total. The median household size is 3.4 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Educational attainment in Narre Warren South aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 22.1%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common, at 15.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.9%) and graduate diplomas (2.0%). Vocational credentials are prevalent among residents aged 15 and above, with 33.1% holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (12.2%) and certificates (20.9%). Educational participation is high, with 34.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 11.2% in secondary education, 11.1% in primary education, and 5.3% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Narre Warren South has 110 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 10 different routes that together facilitate 2,065 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located approximately 235 meters from the nearest stop. As a predominantly residential zone, most commuters travel outward, with cars being the primary mode of transportation at 92%. On average, there are 2.0 vehicles per dwelling, which is higher than the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, 20.6% of residents work from home, a figure that may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

The service frequency averages 295 trips per day across all routes, equating to roughly 18 weekly trips per individual stop. The accompanying map illustrates the 100 nearest stops to the location's centerpoint.

Narre Warren South's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with a fairly standard level of common health conditions seen across both young and old age cohorts

Health data shows Narre Warren South residents have relatively positive health outcomes. Mortality rates and health conditions are generally comparable to national benchmarks.

Common health issues are seen across both young and old age groups. Approximately 51% of residents (~16,021 people) have private health cover, compared to 56.7% in Greater Melbourne. The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma (7.2%) and mental health issues (6.3%). Around 75.4% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Under-65 residents have better-than-average health outcomes. Narre Warren South has 11.6% of residents aged 65 and over (3,654 people), lower than the 15.1% in Greater Melbourne. Senior health outcomes are above average and generally align with national rankings.

Narre Warren South is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Narre Warren South's population consists of 42.0% born overseas, with 42.4% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion, accounting for 42.6%. Islam is overrepresented, comprising 16.8%, higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 5.6%.

In terms of ancestry, 'Other' is highest at 26.3%, Australian follows at 18.5%, and English at 17.3%. Notably, Sri Lankan (2.2% vs regional 0.8%), Hungarian (0.5% vs 0.3%), and Samoan (0.9% vs 0.3%) groups are overrepresented in Narre Warren South.

Narre Warren South hosts a young demographic, positioning it in the bottom quartile nationwide

Narre Warren South's median age is 34 years, which is lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and Australia's national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Narre Warren South has a higher proportion of residents aged 15-24 (18.1%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (11.4%). This concentration of 15-24 year-olds is well above the national average of 12.5%. Between the 2021 Census and the present, the proportion of residents aged 15 to 24 has increased from 16.8% to 18.1%, while those aged 65 to 74 have risen from 5.8% to 7.1%. Conversely, the proportion of residents aged 5 to 14 has declined from 15.9% to 14.4%, and those aged 45 to 54 have decreased from 15.5% to 14.0%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic changes in Narre Warren South. The 65 to 74 age cohort is projected to grow by 44%, adding 992 residents to reach a total of 3,229. Meanwhile, the numbers in the 35 to 44 age range are expected to fall by 3%.