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This analysis uses Suburbs and Localities (SAL) boundaries, which can materially differ from Statistical Areas (SA2) even when sharing the same name.
SAL boundaries are defined by Australia Post and the Australian Bureau of Statistics to represent commonly-known suburb names used in postal addresses.
Statistical Areas (SA2) are designed for census data collection and may combine multiple suburbs or use different geographic boundaries. For comprehensive analysis, consider reviewing both boundary types if available.
est. as @ -- *
2021 Census | -- people
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Narre Warren has an estimated 28,718 residents, up from 27,689 at the 2021 Census — a change of 1,029 people, or 3.7%. 258 new addresses have been validated here since Census night. That puts 1,975 residents on each square kilometre. Population is estimated from ABS Estimated Resident Population releases and GNAF address data, re-based from the 2021 Census and updated annually.
Detail
An evaluation by AreaSearch incorporating broader ABS demographic releases and post-Census address validations puts the resident count in the suburb of Narre Warren at roughly 28,718 as of Aug 2026. This represents an addition of 1,029 people (3.7%) above the 27,689 people recorded in the 2021 Census. Such figures build upon an estimated resident population of 28,528 determined from the ABS ERP release in June 2025 alongside 258 validated new addresses recorded since the Census. Consequently, population density stands at 1,975 persons per square kilometer, exceeding the benchmark across national locations assessed by AreaSearch.
Inbound international migration served as the core driver of local expansion, accounting for around 65.0% of recent population additions. Population modeling by AreaSearch utilizes the 2024 ABS/Geoscience Australia projections pegged to a 2022 base year for each SA2. Where SA2 coverage is unavailable, the 2023 VIC State Government Regional/LGA projections are integrated through weighted growth aggregations from LGA down to SA2 divisions, with age-specific rates extended from 2032 to 2041 across all areas. Looking ahead, future population expansion in the suburb of Narre Warren is projected to track slightly underneath the nationwide median, expanding by 3,304 persons by 2041 under consolidated SA2 figures, which translates to a cumulative 10.8% rise across the 16 years.
Frequently Asked Questions - Population
398 new dwellings have been approved in Narre Warren over the past five years, an average of 79 a year. That is 2.7 approvals per 1,000 residents. Of the 75 dwellings approved in the latest reporting year, 37% were detached houses and the rest townhouses or apartments. Approvals are currently running at an annualised 85, broadly in line with that longer-run average. Figures come from ABS building approvals aggregated to this Suburb (SAL) boundary and are updated monthly as the ABS releases them.
Detail
Examination of ABS building approvals across statistical areas shows Narre Warren recording approximately 79 residential dwelling permits per annum, amounting to 398 homes throughout the preceding 5 financial years. During FY-25 to date, 85 approvals have been lodged. With only 0.2 new residents added annually per completed dwelling between FY-21 and FY-25, residential construction comfortably meets or surpasses local demand, maintaining buyer options and supporting population expansion capacity. Approved residential projects carry an average expected construction cost of $385,000, coming in underneath regional benchmarks to provide cost-effective options. Concurrently, commercial building permits have reached $44.0 million this financial year, underscoring strong local non-residential development.
Recent residential building approvals comprise 37.0% standalone houses alongside 63.0% medium and high-density dwellings. This focus on denser development delivers entry-level alternatives that cater to first-home buyers, downsizers, and investors. It marks a clear structural departure from the existing built environment (92.0% houses), reflecting land constraints as well as changing lifestyle and budget considerations. A ratio of roughly 332 people per approval denotes a mature property market. Demographic projections indicate that Narre Warren will add 3,114 residents through to 2041 compared to the most recent quarterly estimate from AreaSearch. Current residential construction volume aligns with anticipated growth, sustaining steady market dynamics without creating heightened pricing pressures.
Frequently Asked Questions - Development
Development applications around Narre Warren
SOURCE: Planning portals and council registers, compiled by AreaSearch. Distance & bearing measured from the suburb midpoint.
AreaSearch tracks 20 current infrastructure and development projects inside Narre Warren, worth an estimated $2.04 billion. A further 100 sit in the immediately surrounding suburbs, taking the tracked pipeline within reach of the area to $19.8 billion. 29 are already under construction and 43 are due for completion within three years. The pipeline spans residential development, communities, precincts & urban renewal and transport & logistics. Records are compiled from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, council planning portals and public announcements, reviewed and updated daily, then ranked by proximity, construction stage, completion horizon and project scale.
Detail
Local capital works and urban planning schemes play a decisive role in shaping community development. AreaSearch has tracked 36 infrastructure and development projects with potential local impacts, highlighted by initiatives such as the Narre Warren Police Station Upgrade, Westfield Fountain Gate Ongoing Development, Casey Gardens Development, and Narre Warren Central, alongside further works itemized below.
Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.
INFRASTRUCTURE SEARCH
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Frequently Asked Questions - Infrastructure
Narre Warren Central
State-of-the-art Large Format Retail (LFR) centre with 17,000 square metres of elevated retail spaces in a landscaped environment. Features flexible tenancies from 300 to 3,500 square metres for retail and allied health needs, with proximity to Westfield Fountain Gate in Melbourne's fastest growing suburb. Development includes convenience restaurants and restricted retail premises with reduced parking requirements.
Fountain Gate Activity Centre Revitalisation
Comprehensive revitalisation of the Narre Warren Metropolitan Activity Centre. Key current activity includes the 50 million dollar Fountain Gate Central retail development at the former Bunnings site, featuring 14,300 sqm of retail space for major anchors like Supercheap Auto and Rebel Sport. The broader long-term vision guided by the City of Casey focus on high-density mixed-use growth, improved transport connectivity, and sustainable urban infrastructure around Australia's second-largest shopping centre.
Narre Warren Village Urban Design Framework
Comprehensive urban design framework to revitalize Narre Warren Village center with improved streetscapes, mixed-use development opportunities, enhanced connectivity, improved public spaces, and community gathering spaces.
Stockland Minta Residential Estate
Masterplanned community in Berwick within the Minta Farm PSP, delivering around 1750 dwellings with wetlands, parks, trails and a future town centre. Ongoing staged delivery with recent community updates and a 2023 UDIA Victoria award for Best Residential Subdivision.
Narre Warren Police Station Upgrade
Comprehensive upgrade and refurbishment of the existing two-storey police station including redesigned internal layout, better public-facing areas, safer prisoner processing areas, interview rooms, upgraded holding cells, modernized police workspaces with new energy-efficient amenities, technology, and security infrastructure. New electrical, plumbing and HVAC systems throughout.
Max Pawsey Reserve Master Plan
20-year master plan for the staged upgrade and renewal of the 11-hectare Max Pawsey Reserve district sporting precinct. The updated master plan was adopted by City of Casey in September 2024 following a statutory four-year review. Major works include upgraded sporting facilities, new tennis pavilion, playground and expanded car park, improved pathways, wetlands, female-friendly amenities and supporting infrastructure. The playground and car park redevelopment is under construction, with additional master plan projects to be delivered in stages over the life of the plan.
Hanley Street Infill Housing (Multiple Sites)
Street-wide infill program of small-to-medium density housing delivered by various private owners. Recent activity includes a four-dwelling application at 55 Hanley St (PA24-0163, 2024), a two-lot subdivision and rear dwelling at 37 Hanley St (PA23-0046, 2023), multiple listings indicating four townhouses at 61 Hanley St largely completed and occupied by mid-2024, and new two-lot subdivision activity at 39 Hanley St (SubA00112/25, May-Jun 2025). Overall status is mixed: several lots completed or occupied, with additional subdivision and dwellings currently progressing through assessment.
Casey Gardens Development
A medium-density residential development at 6 Fullard Road in Narre Warren, approved under the Casey Gardens Development Plan (Version 6.0, July 2021). The project will deliver approximately 500 dwellings including townhouses and apartments across four stages of construction, with an internal road network and communal open space. Development up to 8 storeys is permitted under the plan. Located approximately 200 metres southeast of Narre Warren Railway Station on the Pakenham line, with direct access to the Monash Freeway and close proximity to Fountain Gate Westfield Shopping Centre.
15,498 residents of Narre Warren are employed, from a labour force of 16,533. Unemployment sits at 6.3%, with participation at 71.1%. Weighted for its industry mix, the area's sectors are forecast to grow about 6.0% nationally over five years. That reflects industry composition only and makes no allowance for local population growth. Unemployment and labour force come from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, updated quarterly; the industry and occupation profile is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
The local labour market in Narre Warren features solid skills depth, underpinned by high representation in building trades, an unemployment rate of 6.3%, and a 4.5% annual expansion in employment based on statistical area aggregations by AreaSearch. As of March 2026, employed residents total 15,498, with joblessness standing 1.5% higher than the 4.8% recorded for Greater Melbourne, while labour participation aligns closely with the metropolitan mark of 70.1%. Census records show 20.2% of workers operating from home, though this was influenced by Covid-19 restrictions at the time. Local workforce participation is heavily concentrated across health care & social assistance, construction, and manufacturing.
The manufacturing sector is particularly prominent, employing 1.7 times the regional proportion. Conversely, the professional & technical sector makes up a smaller footprint at 5.6% locally versus 10.1% across the broader region. While local jobs exist, comparison of the Census resident workforce against local employment indicates substantial outbound commuting. SALM and ABS data evaluated by AreaSearch indicates that over the 12-month period, local employment grew by 4.5% alongside a 4.4% expansion in the labour pool, keeping the unemployment rate virtually unchanged. In comparison, Greater Melbourne registered a 2.1% rise in employment, a 2.3% increase in the labour force, and a 0.2 percentage points rise in unemployment. National forecasts released in Mar-26 by Jobs and Skills Australia provide further guidance on future workforce needs in Narre Warren across five and ten-year horizons. Across Australia, total employment is projected to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with performance varying widely by discipline. Weighting these sectoral forecasts against Narre Warren's current industry composition indicates local employment growth of 6.0% over five years and 12.8% over ten years (representing a baseline weighting extrapolation for illustration without incorporating local demographic forecasts).
Frequently Asked Questions - Employment
Median household income in Narre Warren is $1,741 a week (about $91,000 a year), with median personal income at $741 a week. ATO records put median taxable income at $50,000 a year against an average of $59,055. Household income is from the 2021 Census; taxable income is from ATO Taxation Statistics for the latest financial year available, indexed forward using the ABS Wage Price Index.
Detail
ATO postcode statistics for financial year 2023 indicate that earnings in the suburb of Narre Warren trail national benchmarks, recording a median income of $50,000 and an average income of $59,055. By comparison, Greater Melbourne registered a median income of $57,688 and an average income of $75,164. Factoring in Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since financial year 2023, updated figures reach approximately $54,810 (median) and $64,736 (average) as of March 2026. The 2021 Census placed personal, family, and household incomes within the 37th to 49th percentiles. In total, 38.9% of local residents (11,171 individuals) earn between $1,500 - 2,999, which aligns with the 32.8% recorded across the surrounding region.
While housing costs take up 16.3% of income, disposable earnings reach the 50th percentile, and the SEIFA income score sits in the 4th decile.
Frequently Asked Questions - Income
Narre Warren had 9,186 occupied dwellings at the 2021 Census, 92% detached houses and 3% apartments. 45% are owned with a mortgage, 29% rented and 26% owned outright. At that Census the median rent was $360 a week and the median mortgage repayment $1,733 a month. Rent absorbs 20.7% of household income here and mortgage repayments 23.0%. Dwelling stock, tenure and housing costs are 2021 Census measures — the only source that counts dwellings at this boundary size.
Detail
At the latest Census, the housing landscape in Narre Warren was made up of 91.8% houses and 8.3% other dwellings (apartments, townhouses, and alternate forms), contrasting with Melbourne metro's distribution of 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Outright home ownership stood lower than the metropolitan figure at 26.1%, with mortgaged properties accounting for 44.8% and rental accommodation making up 29.1%. Monthly median mortgage costs were recorded at $1,733, noticeably below the Melbourne metro median of $2,000, while median weekly rent was $360 compared to $390 across the metropolis. Nationally, Narre Warren's mortgage obligations sit below the Australian figure of $1,863, and weekly rents track underneath the nationwide level of $375.
Frequently Asked Questions - Housing
Narre Warren counted 9,186 households at the 2021 Census, averaging 2.9 people each. 40% are couples with children, more than in 79% of areas nationally, against 23% couples without children. 19% of households are people living alone, and families average 1.6 children. Household and family composition is measured only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Families make up 78.3% of households locally, consisting of 40.1% couples with children, 23.0% couples without children, and 13.6% single parent families. The remaining 21.7% are non-family residences, where lone person households represent 19.2% and group arrangements account for 2.6%. The typical household size stands at 2.9 people, exceeding the Greater Melbourne mark of 2.6.
Frequently Asked Questions - Households
22.3% of adults in Narre Warren hold a university qualification, including 15.4% with a bachelor degree and 5.1% with postgraduate qualifications. A further 23.4% hold a vocational qualification. 9 schools serve the area, with 4,084 enrolment places and an average ICSEA of 980 against a national benchmark of 1,000. Qualifications come from the 2021 Census; school enrolments, ICSEA and results come from ACARA's current release.
Detail
Attainment levels indicate a lower prevalence of higher education in the area, with 22.3% of residents holding university qualifications compared to 37.0% across Greater Melbourne, highlighting an avenue for focused educational support. Bachelor degrees account for 15.4%, postgraduate qualifications make up 5.1%, and graduate diplomas represent 1.8%. Vocational education is widespread, as 35.3% of community members aged 15+ hold technical credentials, comprising 11.9% with advanced diplomas and 23.4% holding certificates. Formal study engagement is substantial throughout the community, with 30.4% of the population attending an educational institution. This proportion consists of 10.0% in primary schooling, 7.9% in secondary education, and 5.0% undertaking tertiary studies.
Frequently Asked Questions - Education
Schools Detail
Public transport in Narre Warren reaches 119 stops on 18 routes, timetabled for about 7,100 services a week. The typical home sits about 230 m from its nearest stop. Buses carry the largest share of public transport commuters. Households keep an average of 1.6 vehicles. Stop and service counts are built from operators' published GTFS timetables and refresh with each timetable release; vehicle ownership is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
Public transit infrastructure in Narre Warren includes 119 bus stops spread across 18 distinct routes, which combine to deliver 7,099 passenger trips per week. Local accessibility is favourable, with residents situated an average of 225 meters from their closest transit facility. Due to the area's residential profile, commuting is largely outbound, with private vehicles serving 90% of journeys and trains carrying 6%. Household vehicle ownership averages 1.6 per dwelling, higher than the regional average, while 20.2% of workers commuted from home according to the 2021 Census (which was subject to COVID-19 conditions).
Transit services provide an average of 1,014 trips per day across the network, translating to roughly 59 weekly services at each individual stop. The accompanying diagram plots the 100 closest transit stops relative to the centrepoint of the suburb.
Frequently Asked Questions - Transport
Transport Stops Detail
71.9% of residents in Narre Warren report no long-term health condition. 6.3% need daily assistance with core activities, and 50.2% hold private health cover. The standardised death rate runs at 5.5 per 1,000 residents. Health conditions, assistance needs and insurance are 2021 Census measures; the death rate comes from current ABS releases.
Detail
Mortality metrics and chronic illness patterns evaluated by AreaSearch indicate health outcomes below broader benchmarks in Narre Warren, with regular conditions present across younger and older demographics. Furthermore, private health insurance coverage is subdued at around 50% of residents (~14,425 people), trailing the Greater Melbourne level of 56.7% and the national rate of 55.7%. Asthma and mental health conditions represent the leading reported diagnoses, affecting 7.7 and 7.4% of community members respectively, while 71.9% of residents reported no long-term illnesses, slightly below the 72.6% recorded for Greater Melbourne. Health metrics across the working-age cohort remain standard.
Residents aged 65 and over make up 13.7% of the population (3,934 people), tracking below the metropolitan rate of 15.1%, with health outcomes among older residents displaying some hurdles while aligning broadly with national rankings.
Frequently Asked Questions - Health
41.1% of Narre Warren residents were born overseas and 40.9% speak a language other than English at home, more culturally diverse than 84% of areas nationally. The largest reported ancestries are Australian (18.3%) and English (18.3%). Ancestry, language and country of birth are counted only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Narre Warren demonstrates notable cultural diversity, with 41.1% of residents born abroad and 40.9% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the most common religious affiliation, encompassing 43.6% of residents. Islam is particularly prominent, representing 10.6% of the local population in comparison to the Greater Melbourne benchmark of 5.6%. Regarding parental birthplaces, the largest ancestry groups in Narre Warren are Other at 22.1% (well above the regional mark of 14.6%), Australian at 18.3%, and English at 18.3%. Specific cultural communities show heightened local representation relative to regional averages, including Hungarian at 0.8% (versus 0.3%), Sri Lankan at 2.1% (versus 0.8%), and Serbian at 1.1% (versus 0.4%).
Frequently Asked Questions - Diversity
The median resident of Narre Warren is 35, younger than 76% of areas nationally. 29.4% of residents are aged 15 to 34. Age cohorts are not raw Census counts: the Census split is re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections.
Detail
The age distribution in Narre Warren closely mirrors metropolitan patterns, with differences not exceeding 1.4 percentage points from Greater Melbourne. The median age is estimated at 35, matching the 2021 Census result and sitting 2 years below the Greater Melbourne median of 37 recorded in the same Census. The 45 - 64 age bracket has decreased from 25.1% at the Census to an estimated 23.5%. Senior cohorts (65+) are forecast to see the largest increase by 2041, climbing by 1,707 residents (43%) to reach 5,641.
Frequently Asked Questions - Age
Data & MethodBoundaries, Sources & Method for Narre Warren
9 of 14 data sections on this page were updated within the last 12 months — the newest current to Sep 2026.
Everything is aggregated to the Suburb (SAL) boundary shown above, on a 2021 Census baseline. Only 3 sections — housing, households and cultural diversity — still wait on the 2026 Census.
The ledger — source, cycle and currency by section
| Section | Source & update cycle | Currency |
|---|---|---|
| Updated within the last 12 months 9 sections | ||
| Population | ABS, GNAF, Geoscience Australia Annual (ABS ERP) | Aug 2026 2 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release) and updated with new dwellings from GNAF address data. Current to Aug 2026, with the 2021 Census supplying the small-area baseline. | ||
| Age profile | ABS, Geoscience Australia, State governments Annual | Aug 2026 2 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Age cohorts are re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections, current to Aug 2026. Each cohort is held as a Census baseline and a current estimate. | ||
| Development & approvals | ABS, GNAF Monthly (ABS approvals) | Aug 2026 2 months ago headline measures · Jul 2026 baseline |
| Property sales & rents | Valuer General, Rental Board, ABS Weekly sales, quarterly rents | Sep 2026 last month all 21 measures |
| Sales from the state Valuer General register, refreshed weekly, and rents from quarterly rental bond lodgements. Both are read live each time this page loads, current to Sep 2026. | ||
| Infrastructure projects | Infrastructure Australia, State agencies, Local governments Daily | Aug 2026 2 months ago all 20 projects tracked here |
| Project pipeline maintained continuously from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, local government and public announcements. Records are added and revised daily; this area was last updated Aug 2026. | ||
| Employment | ABS, DEWR, JSA Quarterly (ABS SALM) | Mar 2026 7 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Unemployment and labour force from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, current to Mar 2026. The growth outlook applies Department of Employment (now Jobs and Skills Australia) forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to the local industry mix, so it measures sector composition rather than local expansion and makes no allowance for population growth. Job demand comes from the same agency via its Internet Vacancy Index; industry and occupation structure from the 2021 Census. | ||
| Education | ABS, ACARA Annual (ACARA) | Sep 2026 last month headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Transport | ABS, State Transport Departments Each timetable release | Jul 2026 3 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Services & amenities | Provider directories, ACECQA Continuous | Sep 2026 last month all 14 measures |
| Annual and financial-year sources 2 sections | ||
| Income | ABS, ATO Annual (ATO) | FY 2023 3 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| ATO taxable income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index. Census household income provides the distribution detail. | ||
| Health | ABS, ATO Annual | 2024 2 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Census-measured — next update: 2026 Census 3 sections No more current small-area source exists for these, so they are labelled as Census-measured rather than implied to be current. | ||
| Housing | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 30 measures |
| Households | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 18 measures |
| Cultural diversity | ABS, Geoscience Australia 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 44 measures |
"Currency" is the most recent release feeding that section. Where the Census supplies the structural baseline underneath a current headline figure, the row says so.
How the numbers are built
Population
The Census provides the small-area baseline, aggregated from mesh blocks to this boundary. It is then re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release), and new dwellings built since Census night are counted from address data — 258 validated new addresses here. The headline figure is therefore a current estimate for Aug 2026, not a 2021 count (27,689 at the 2021 Census → 28,718 now). Annual growth rates are compound (CAGR), not simple averages.
Age profile
Cohort shares are not raw Census counts. Every cohort is held as a pair — the Census baseline and a current estimate — and the split is re-based using ERP and state population projections, current to Aug 2026. Median age is the Census median plus modelled change since. Charts that show both are labelled "2021 Census vs Current Estimate".
Property sales
Sourced from the state valuation authority's sales register — current, not Census, and refreshed weekly. Medians are calculated from settled transactions in the period shown; periods with very low transaction counts are flagged or suppressed, because a handful of sales can move a median substantially.
Rents
Derived from state rental bond lodgement data, by dwelling type and bedroom count. Bonds are lodged at the start of a new tenancy, so this reflects new lettings, not the whole rented stock.
Development & infrastructure
Building approvals come from current ABS releases; development applications are collected from council and state planning portals; the infrastructure pipeline is compiled from Infrastructure Australia and local government sources. Applications are matched to this boundary by address or coordinates, so very recent lodgements may not yet appear.
Employment & income
Industry and occupation structure comes from the Census, but the headline labour-market indicators do not. Unemployment and labour force are derived from ABS Small Area Labour Markets (quarterly). The employment outlook applies Department of Employment forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to this area's own industry mix (the agency is now Jobs and Skills Australia), as does the Internet Vacancy Index used for job demand. Because it is weighted on industry composition alone, that outlook carries no allowance for local population growth — in fast-growing areas the real rise in local jobs will typically be higher. Income combines Census household income with ATO taxable-income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index.
Education, transport & amenities
School enrolments, ICSEA and performance come from ACARA's current release, not the Census. Public transport stops and service frequency are derived from GTFS timetable feeds published by state transport departments. Services and amenities are proximity and count scores built from provider directories, refreshed on their own cycle. The Census contributes only the travel-to-work and qualification measures.
Rankings and benchmarks. Where we rank this area, the comparison set is every area of the same boundary type — suburbs against suburbs, SA2s against SA2s. Benchmarks compare this area against its greater capital city region and the national figure for the same measure and period.
Limits worth knowing. Small areas carry larger error margins, and the ABS introduces small random adjustments to Census counts to protect confidentiality — so totals may not sum exactly. Estimates re-based from regional data describe the area's expected trajectory, not a direct count of it. Figures are indicative for research and are not financial, planning or valuation advice.
Cross-check us. The Census baseline for this boundary is at ABS 2021 Census QuickStats (SAL21893). QuickStats reports 2021 only — the figures on this page are more current wherever the ledger shows a later date.