Narre Warren

Narre Warren has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Narre Warren's population, as of Nov 2025, is estimated at around 28,604. This reflects an increase of 915 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 27,689. The change is inferred from the resident population of 28,517, estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS (June 2024), and an additional 203 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,967 persons per square kilometer. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, contributing approximately 65.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusting employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the Narre Warren statistical area (Lv2) is expected to grow by 3,567 persons to 2041, reflecting an increase of 12.2% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Narre Warren according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Based on AreaSearch analysis using ABS building approval numbers from statistical area data, Narre Warren averaged approximately 81 new dwelling approvals annually between FY-21 and FY-25. Around 408 homes were approved in the past five financial years, with an additional 39 approved so far in FY-26. On average, about 0.1 new residents arrived per new home over the same period, suggesting that new supply has kept pace with or exceeded demand.

The average construction value of these dwellings was approximately $345,000. In FY-26, commercial approvals totaled $44.0 million, indicating strong local business investment. Building activity showed 41.0% detached dwellings and 59.0% medium to high-density housing, a shift from the current housing mix of 92.0% houses, likely due to reduced development site availability and changing lifestyle demands. With around 441 people per approval, Narre Warren indicates a mature market.

According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Narre Warren is projected to gain approximately 3,490 residents by 2041. Current construction rates appear balanced with future demand, promoting steady market conditions without excessive price pressure.

Narre Warren has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 36 projects likely impacting the area. Notable ones include Narre Warren Police Station Upgrade, Westfield Fountain Gate Ongoing Development, Casey Gardens Development, and Narre Warren Central. The following list details those expected to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Narre Warren has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Narre Warren's workforce is skilled with notable representation in construction. Its unemployment rate was 6.4% as of the past year.

Employment growth was estimated at 3.7%. As of September 2025, 15,244 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 8.4%, 3.7 percentage points higher than Greater Melbourne's 4.7%. Workforce participation was similar to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Key sectors for local employment include health care & social assistance, manufacturing, and construction, with a strong specialization in manufacturing at 1.7 times the regional level.

Professional & technical services had limited presence at 5.6% compared to the regional 10.1%. Many residents commute elsewhere for work. Over the past year, employment increased by 3.7%, while labour force grew by 4.5%, raising unemployment by 0.7 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment rise by 3.0% and unemployment increase by 0.3 percentage points. Statewide in Victoria as of 25-Nov, employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%. National forecasts from May-25 project employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Narre Warren's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.8% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows that Narre Warren has an income below the national average. The median income is $50,000 and the average income stands at $59,055. In comparison, Greater Melbourne's median income is $57,688 with an average of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Narre Warren would be approximately $54,125 (median) and $63,927 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Narre Warren rank modestly, between the 37th and 49th percentiles for household, family, and personal incomes. The data indicates that 38.9% of the population (11,126 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income range, similar to the broader area where 32.8% occupy this range. High housing costs consume 16.3% of income in Narre Warren, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 50th percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 4th decile.

Narre Warren is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile

Narre Warren's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 91.8% houses and 8.3% other dwellings including semi-detached units, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. Home ownership stood at 26.1%, with 44.8% of dwellings mortgaged and 29.1% rented. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, while the median weekly rent was recorded as $360. Nationally, Narre Warren's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Narre Warren features high concentrations of family households, with a median household size of 2.9 people

Family households account for 78.3% of all households, including 40.1% couples with children, 23.0% couples without children, and 13.6% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 21.7%, with lone person households at 19.2% and group households comprising 2.6% of the total. The median household size is 2.9 people.

Narre Warren shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

The area's university qualification rate is 22.3%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 15.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.1%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 35.3% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.9%) and certificates (23.4%). Educational participation is high, with 30.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 10.0% in primary education, 7.9% in secondary education, and 5.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Narre Warren has 118 active public transport stops. These include a mix of train and bus services. There are 19 individual routes operating in total, providing 3,189 weekly passenger trips combined.

The accessibility of these services is rated as good, with residents typically located 225 meters from the nearest stop. On average, there are 455 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 27 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Narre Warren is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Narre Warren exhibits above-average health outcomes with low prevalence of common health conditions among its general population. However, this is higher than the national average in older, at-risk cohorts.

The rate of private health cover is relatively low, approximately 50% of the total population (~14,367 people), compared to the national average of 55.7%. Asthma and mental health issues are the most common medical conditions, affecting 7.7 and 7.4% of residents respectively. A total of 71.9% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 0% across Greater Melbourne. The area has 13.0% of residents aged 65 and over (3,718 people). Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges that require more attention than the broader population.

Narre Warren is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Narre Warren's cultural diversity is notable, with 41.1% of its population born overseas and 40.9% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Narre Warren, comprising 43.6% of the population. Islam, however, is more prevalent in Narre Warren compared to Greater Melbourne, making up 10.6% versus None%.

The top three represented ancestry groups are Other (22.1%), Australian (18.3%), and English (18.3%). Notably, Hungarian (0.8%), Sri Lankan (2.1%), and Serbian (1.1%) ethnicities are overrepresented in Narre Warren compared to regional averages of None%.

Narre Warren's population is younger than the national pattern

Narre Warren's median age is 35 years, which is slightly younger than Greater Melbourne's 37 years and somewhat younger than the national average of 38 years. The age group of 55-64 years shows strong representation at 12.0% compared to Greater Melbourne, while the 75-84 age cohort is less prevalent at 3.8%. Between 2021 and present, the 35-44 age group has grown from 13.8% to 14.9% of the population. Conversely, the 45-54 age group has declined from 13.0% to 11.6%. Population forecasts for Narre Warren indicate significant demographic changes by 2041. The 65-74 age cohort is projected to increase substantially, with an expansion of 877 people (40%) from 2,202 to 3,080. Notably, the combined age groups of 65+ will account for 55% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, both the 0-4 and 5-14 age groups are expected to decrease in numbers.