Narre Warren

Narre Warren has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, as of May 2026 the estimated population of Narre Warren is around 28,665. This reflects an increase of 976 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 27,689. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate of 28,528 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025 and an additional 244 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,971 persons per square kilometer, above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed approximately 65.0% of overall population gains during recent periods in Narre Warren.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the suburb of Narre Warren is expected to grow by 3,292 persons to 2041, reflecting an increase of 11.0% in total over the 16 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Narre Warren according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Narre Warren averaged approximately 81 new dwelling approvals per year. Between financial years FY-21 and FY-25, around 408 homes were approved, with an additional 49 approved in FY-26 to date. On average, each new home attracted about 0.2 new residents over the past five financial years.

This indicates that new supply is meeting or exceeding demand, providing ample buyer choice and creating capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts. The average construction cost value of new dwellings was approximately $345,000. In FY-26, commercial approvals totaled $44.0 million, suggesting robust local business investment. Building activity showed 41.0% detached dwellings and 59.0% medium to high-density housing, reflecting a shift from the current housing mix of 92.0% houses.

This change may be due to reduced availability of development sites and shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. Narre Warren's population growth is expected to continue, with forecasts indicating an increase of 3,155 residents by 2041, based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Current construction rates appear balanced with future demand, fostering steady market conditions without excessive price pressure.

Narre Warren has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 36 projects likely impacting the area. Key projects include Narre Warren Police Station Upgrade, Westfield Fountain Gate Ongoing Development, Casey Gardens Development, and Narre Warren Central. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Narre Warren has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Narre Warren has a skilled workforce with notable representation in the construction sector. The unemployment rate was 6.6% as of an unspecified past year. Employment grew by an estimated 3.5% during this period.

As of December 2025, there were 15,354 employed residents, with an unemployment rate of 6.7%, which is 1.9% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%. Workforce participation was similar to Greater Melbourne's at 69.9%. According to Census responses, 20.2% of residents worked from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, manufacturing, and construction, with a strong specialization in manufacturing at 1.7 times the regional level.

However, professional & technical employment was lower at 5.6%, compared to the regional average of 10.1%. Many Narre Warren residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment increased by 3.5% while the labour force grew by 4.6%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate by 0.9 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment rise by 2.4%, labour force grow by 2.8%, and unemployment increase by 0.3 percentage points during this period. National employment forecasts from May-25 project national growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying rates across industry sectors. Applying these projections to Narre Warren's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.8% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 indicates that Narre Warren's median income is $50,000 and average income is $59,055. This is below Greater Melbourne's median income of $57,688 and average income of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth from financial year 2023 to March 2026 (9.62%), estimated incomes for Narre Warren are approximately $54,810 median and $64,736 average as of March 2026. According to the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in Narre Warren rank modestly between the 37th and 49th percentiles. Income data shows that 38.9% (11,150 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 range, similar to the broader area's 32.8%. Housing costs consume 16.3% of income in Narre Warren, with disposable income at the 50th percentile and SEIFA income ranking in the 4th decile.

Narre Warren is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Narre Warren's dwellings, as per the latest Census, consisted of 91.8% houses and 8.3% other dwellings. In contrast, Melbourne metro had 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Narre Warren was 26.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 44.8% and rented ones at 29.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, lower than Melbourne metro's $2,000. The median weekly rent was $360, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Narre Warren's mortgage repayments were below the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Narre Warren features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households compose 78.3% of all households, including 40.1% couples with children, 23.0% couples without children, and 13.6% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 21.7%, with lone person households at 19.2% and group households comprising 2.6%. The median household size is 2.9 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Narre Warren shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

The area's university qualification rate is 22.3%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 15.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.1%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 35.3% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.9%) and certificates (23.4%). Educational participation is high, with 30.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, comprising 10.0% in primary, 7.9% in secondary, and 5.0% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 30.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.0% in primary education, 7.9% in secondary education, and 5.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Narre Warren has 119 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 19 different routes that together facilitate 3,189 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 225 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to its residential nature. Cars remain the dominant mode of transportation at 90%, while trains account for 6%. On average, there are 1.6 vehicles per dwelling, which is higher than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 20.2% of residents work from home, a figure possibly influenced by COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency averages 455 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 26 weekly trips per individual stop. A map accompanies this data, displaying the 100 nearest stops to the location's centrepoint.

Health outcomes in Narre Warren are marginally below the national average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Narre Warren's health indicators show below-average results based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. Private health cover is relatively low at approximately 50% of the total population (~14,398 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 56.7%.

Nationally, it stands at 55.7%. The most common medical conditions are asthma and mental health issues, affecting 7.7% and 7.4% of residents respectively. 71.9% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to Greater Melbourne's 72.6%. Health outcomes among the working-age population are broadly typical. The area has 13.5% of residents aged 65 and over (3,869 people), lower than Greater Melbourne's 15.0%. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Narre Warren is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Narre Warren's population shows high cultural diversity, with 41.1% born overseas and 40.9% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the dominant religion, comprising 43.6%. Islam is overrepresented at 10.6%, higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 5.6%.

In terms of ancestry, 'Other' is highest at 22.1%, followed by Australian and English, both at 18.3%. Hungarian (0.8%), Sri Lankan (2.1%), and Serbian (1.1%) groups are notably overrepresented compared to regional averages.

Narre Warren's population is younger than the national pattern

Narre Warren's median age is 35 years, which is slightly younger than Greater Melbourne's 37 and somewhat younger than the national average of 38 years. The age group of 55-64 has a strong representation at 12.0%, compared to Greater Melbourne, while the 75-84 cohort is less prevalent at 3.9%. Between 2021 and present, the 35 to 44 age group has grown from 13.8% to 15.1% of the population. Conversely, the 45 to 54 age group has declined from 13.0% to 11.6%. By 2041, forecasts indicate substantial demographic changes for Narre Warren. The 65 to 74 age cohort is projected to increase by 736 people (32%), rising from 2,321 to 3,058. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 53% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, both 0 to 4 and 5 to 14 age groups are expected to decrease in numbers.