Narre Warren

Narre Warren has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

As of Feb 2026, the population of the suburb of Narre Warren is estimated at around 28,604, reflecting an increase of 915 people since the 2021 Census. This increase represents a growth rate of 3.3%, with the 2021 Census reporting a population of 27,689 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 28,517 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 204 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population results in a density ratio of 1,967 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed approximately 65.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, primarily driving growth for the area.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusting with a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking ahead, demographic trends suggest a population increase just below the median of national areas is expected for Narre Warren. By 2041, the suburb is projected to grow by 3,557 persons, reflecting an overall increase of 12.2% over the 17-year period based on aggregated SA2-level projections.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Narre Warren according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Narre Warren averaged approximately 81 new dwelling approvals annually based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers. Between FY21 and FY25, around 408 homes were approved, with an additional 39 approved in FY26 as of now. The average number of new residents per year arriving per new home over the past five financial years was approximately 0.1.

New dwellings are developed at an average expected construction cost value of $345,000. In FY26, commercial approvals totaled $44.0 million, indicating robust local business investment. Building activity shows 41.0% detached dwellings and 59.0% medium to high-density housing. This shift from the current housing mix of 92.0% houses reflects reduced development site availability and addresses changing lifestyle demands and affordability requirements.

Narre Warren indicates a mature market with around 441 people per approval. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Narre Warren is projected to gain approximately 3,480 residents by 2041. Current construction rates appear balanced with future demand, fostering steady market conditions without excessive price pressure.

Narre Warren has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 36 projects likely impacting the region. Notable initiatives include Narre Warren Police Station Upgrade, Westfield Fountain Gate Ongoing Development, Casey Gardens Development, and Narre Warren Central. The following details projects likely most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Narre Warren has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Narre Warren has a skilled workforce with notable representation in the construction sector. The unemployment rate was 6.4% as of an unspecified past year, with an estimated employment growth of 3.7%. As of September 2025, 15,249 residents were employed, and the unemployment rate was 1.7% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%.

Workforce participation was similar to Greater Melbourne's 71.0%. According to Census responses, 20.2% of residents worked from home. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, manufacturing, and construction, with a strong specialization in manufacturing at 1.7 times the regional level. However, professional & technical services have limited presence, at 5.6% compared to the regional 10.1%.

Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data. In the 12-month period ending September 2025, employment increased by 3.7%, while the labour force grew by 4.5%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate of 0.7 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Narre Warren's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.8% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes only.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ending June 2023 shows that Narre Warren's median income is $50,000 and average income stands at $59,055. This contrasts with Greater Melbourne's median income of $57,688 and average income of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since June 2023, estimated incomes for September 2025 would be approximately $54,125 (median) and $63,927 (average). According to the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in Narre Warren rank modestly, between the 37th and 49th percentiles. The data shows that 38.9% of Narre Warren's population (11,126 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 income range, similar to the broader area where 32.8% occupy this range. High housing costs consume 16.3% of income in Narre Warren, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 50th percentile, and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 4th decile.

Narre Warren is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Narre Warren's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 91.8% houses and 8.3% other dwellings. In comparison, Melbourne metro had 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Narre Warren stood at 26.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 44.8% and rented ones at 29.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, lower than Melbourne metro's $2,000. Median weekly rent in Narre Warren was $360, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Narre Warren's mortgage repayments were below the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Narre Warren features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 78.3% of all households, including 40.1% couples with children, 23.0% couples without children, and 13.6% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 21.7%, with lone person households at 19.2% and group households making up 2.6%. The median household size is 2.9 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Narre Warren shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

The area's university qualification rate is 22.3%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 15.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.1%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials are held by 35.3% of residents aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 11.9% and certificates at 23.4%. Educational participation is high, with 30.4% currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 10.0% in primary, 7.9% in secondary, and 5.0% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Narre Warren has 119 active public transport stops operating within its boundaries. These stops are served by 19 different bus routes that together facilitate 3,189 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is considered good, with residents typically located approximately 225 meters from the nearest stop. As a primarily residential area, most commuters travel outward. The car remains the dominant mode of transport at 90%, with train usage at 6%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.6 per dwelling, which is above the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 20.2% of residents work from home, a figure that may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency averages 455 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 26 weekly trips per individual stop. A map accompanies the analysis and shows the locations of the 100 nearest stops to the area's centrepoint.

Health outcomes in Narre Warren are marginally below the national average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Narre Warren's health indicators show below-average results based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is relatively low at approximately 50% of the total population (~14,367 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 56.7% and the national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions are asthma (7.7%) and mental health issues (7.4%). 71.9% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among the working-age population are broadly typical. Narre Warren has 13.6% of residents aged 65 and over (3,890 people), lower than Greater Melbourne's 15.1%. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Narre Warren is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Narre Warren has a high cultural diversity, with 41.1% of its population born overseas and 40.9% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the main religion, comprising 43.6% of Narre Warren's population. Islam is overrepresented in Narre Warren compared to Greater Melbourne, making up 10.6% versus 5.6%.

The top three ancestry groups are Other (22.1%), Australian (18.3%), and English (18.3%). Hungarian (0.8%) and Sri Lankan (2.1%) populations are notably higher than regional averages of 0.3% and 0.8%, respectively, while Serbian is at 1.1% compared to the region's 0.4%.

Narre Warren's population is younger than the national pattern

Narre Warren has a median age of 35 years, which is slightly younger than Greater Melbourne's 37 years and somewhat younger than Australia's national average of 38 years. The age group of 55-64 years shows strong representation in Narre Warren at 12.1%, compared to Greater Melbourne, while the 75-84 cohort is less prevalent at 4%. From 2021 to present, the 35 to 44 age group has grown from 13.8% to 15.1% of Narre Warren's population. Conversely, the 45 to 54 age group has declined from 13.0% to 11.5%. By 2041, forecasts indicate substantial demographic changes in Narre Warren. The 65 to 74 age cohort is projected to increase by 762 people (33%), from 2,316 to 3,079. Notably, the combined age groups of 65 and above will account for 51% of total population growth, reflecting Narre Warren's aging demographic profile. In contrast, both the 5 to 14 and 0 to 4 age groups are expected to see reduced numbers.