Narre Warren

Narre Warren has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Narre Warren's population was estimated at 28,581 as of November 2025, reflecting an increase of 892 people since the 2021 Census. This increase represents a growth rate of 3.2%. The resident population estimate of 28,523 by AreaSearch is based on examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 203 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1,965 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed approximately 65% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusting with weighted aggregation methods from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, Narre Warren is expected to grow by 3,567 persons to 2041, reflecting an increase of approximately 12.3% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Narre Warren according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Narre Warren averaged approximately 81 new dwelling approvals annually. Between fiscal years FY21 and FY25, around 406 homes were approved, with an additional 26 approved in FY26 to date. This results in an average of about 0.1 new residents per year arriving for each new home over the past five financial years.

The average construction cost value of these dwellings is approximately $343,000. In FY26, commercial approvals totalled $43.4 million. New development consists of 41.0% detached houses and 59.0% medium to high-density housing. By comparison, the current housing mix in Narre Warren is 92.0% houses.

The population per approval is around 448 people, indicating a mature market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Narre Warren is projected to gain approximately 3,513 residents by 2041. Current development appears well-suited to meet future needs, supporting stable market conditions without significant price pressure.

Narre Warren has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 36 projects likely affecting the region. Notable initiatives include Narre Warren Police Station Upgrade, Westfield Fountain Gate Ongoing Development, Casey Gardens Development, and Narre Warren Central. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Narre Warren has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Narre Warren has a skilled workforce. The construction sector is notably represented with an unemployment rate of 6.3%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 3.5%. As of June 2025, 15,463 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 6.3%, which is 1.7% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation is similar to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, manufacturing, and construction.

Manufacturing shows strong specialization with an employment share 1.7 times the regional level. Professional & technical services have lower representation at 5.6% compared to the regional average of 10.1%. Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment increased by 3.5%, while labour force grew by 4.4%, resulting in an unemployment rise of 0.8 percentage points. This contrasts with Greater Melbourne where employment rose by 3.5%, labour force grew by 4.0%, and unemployment rose by 0.5 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Narre Warren's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.8% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localized population projections.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

Narre Warren has a median taxpayer income of $50,001 and an average income of $59,056 according to the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year 2022. This is lower than the national average, contrasting with Greater Melbourne's median income of $54,892 and average income of $73,761. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $56,081 (median) and $66,237 (average) as of September 2025. Census data shows household, family, and personal incomes all rank modestly in Narre Warren, between the 37th and 49th percentiles. The predominant income cohort spans 38.9% of locals (11,118 people) with incomes between $1,500 - 2,999, consistent with broader trends across the surrounding region showing 32.8% in the same category. High housing costs consume 16.3% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 50th percentile, and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 4th decile.

Narre Warren is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Narre Warren's housing stock, as recorded in the latest Census, consisted of 91.8% houses and 8.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). Home ownership in Narre Warren stood at 26.1%, with mortgaged properties at 44.8% and rented dwellings at 29.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, and the median weekly rent was $360. Nationally, Narre Warren's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Narre Warren features high concentrations of family households, with a median household size of 2.9 people

Family households account for 78.3 percent of all households, including 40.1 percent that are couples with children, 23.0 percent that are couples without children, and 13.6 percent that are single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 21.7 percent, with lone person households at 19.2 percent and group households comprising 2.6 percent of the total. The median household size is 2.9 people.

Narre Warren shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

Narre Warren faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates at 22.3%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 15.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.1%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials are common among residents aged 15+, with 35.3% holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (11.9%) and certificates (23.4%). Educational participation is high at 30.4%, comprising 10.0% in primary education, 7.9% in secondary education, and 5.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Narre Warren operates a network of nine schools educating approximately 4,084 students, with typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 980) offering balanced educational opportunities. The educational mix includes five primary, three secondary, and one K-12 school.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Narre Warren has 122 active public transport stops. These are a mix of train and bus stations. They are served by 20 different routes which together provide 4,250 weekly passenger trips.

The accessibility of these services is rated as good with residents typically living 225 meters from the nearest stop. On average, there are 607 trips per day across all routes. This equates to approximately 34 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Narre Warren is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Narre Warren exhibits higher-than-average health outcomes with lower prevalence of common health conditions among its general population compared to national averages. However, certain older, at-risk cohorts have a higher prevalence of these conditions.

Approximately 50% (~14,356 people) of Narre Warren's total population has private health cover, which is lower than the national average of 55.3%. The most prevalent medical conditions in Narre Warren are asthma (7.7%) and mental health issues (7.4%). A significant majority, 71.9%, report being completely free from medical ailments compared to 0% across Greater Melbourne. As of 2016, 13.0% (~3,715 people) of Narre Warren's residents are aged 65 and over. Health outcomes among seniors require more attention than those in the broader population.

Narre Warren is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Narre Warren has a significant level of cultural diversity, with 41.1% of its population born overseas and 40.9% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Narre Warren, accounting for 43.6% of the population. However, Islam is notably overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne, comprising 10.6% of Narre Warren's population.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups are Other (22.1%), Australian (18.3%), and English (18.3%). Some ethnic groups show notable divergences: Hungarian at 0.8%, Sri Lankan at 2.1%, and Serbian at 1.1% are overrepresented compared to regional figures.

Narre Warren's population is younger than the national pattern

Narre Warren's median age is 35 years, which is slightly younger than Greater Melbourne's 37 and somewhat younger than the national average of 38 years. The 55-64 age group makes up a strong 12.0% of Narre Warren's population compared to Greater Melbourne, while the 75-84 cohort is less prevalent at 3.8%. Between 2021 and present, the 35-44 age group has grown from 13.8% to 14.9% of the population. Conversely, the 45-54 age group has declined from 13.0% to 11.6%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic changes for Narre Warren. The 65-74 age cohort is projected to increase by 879 people (40%) from 2,200 to 3,080. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups are expected to account for 54% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, both the 0-4 and 5-14 age groups are projected to decrease in numbers.