Narre Warren North

Population growth drivers in Narre Warren North are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

As of February 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Narre Warren North is around 8,248. This figure represents an increase of 215 people from the 2021 Census total of 8,033 residents. The latest resident population estimate by AreaSearch, based on June 2024 ABS ERP data and validated new addresses since the Census date, is 8,003. This results in a population density ratio of approximately 374 persons per square kilometer. Recent population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration, contributing around 98% of overall population gains.

AreaSearch's projections for Narre Warren North are based on ABS/Geoscience Australia data released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted via weighted aggregation to SA2 levels and applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, the suburb is projected to increase its population by around 605 persons, reflecting a growth rate just below the Australian statistical area median over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Narre Warren North, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Narre Warren North has recorded approximately 23 residential properties granted approval each year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 118 homes. As of FY-26, 21 approvals have been recorded. Despite a decrease in population during this period, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, indicating a balanced market with good buyer choice. The average value of new homes being built is $867,000, suggesting developers are focusing on the premium market and high-end developments.

There have also been $14.7 million in commercial approvals this financial year, demonstrating steady commercial investment activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Narre Warren North shows substantially reduced construction activity, with 52.0% below the regional average per person. This constrained new construction typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing properties, although recent construction activity has increased. The area's established nature is further indicated by its construction activity being below the national average, potentially suggesting planning limitations. All new construction in Narre Warren North has been comprised of standalone homes, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space.

With around 262 people per dwelling approval, Narre Warren North is considered a low density area. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Narre Warren North is expected to grow by approximately 360 residents through to 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Narre Warren North has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 15 projects likely impacting the area. Major projects include Oak Ridge Residential Estate, South East Melbourne Recycled Water Supply Infrastructure Upgrades, Hallam North and Heatherton Road Upgrade, and Ellington Estate. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Narre Warren North demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Narre Warren North has a skilled workforce with the construction sector being particularly prominent. Its unemployment rate was 2.9% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 4.0%. As of December 2025, 4,595 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.9% below Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%, and workforce participation similar to Greater Melbourne's 71.3%.

Notably, 25.4% of residents work from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Key employment industries include construction, retail trade, and health care & social assistance. The area shows strong specialization in construction, with an employment share 2.1 times the regional level, but professional & technical services are under-represented at 6.7% compared to Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. Local employment opportunities appear limited based on resident population versus working population counts.

Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment levels increased by 4.0%, labour force grew by 4.6%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate of 0.5 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment growth of 2.4% and labour force growth of 2.8%, with an unemployment rate increase of 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Narre Warren North's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 12.9% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Narre Warren North, a suburb, has a median taxpayer income of $54,074 and an average income of $75,880, based on the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year 2023. Nationally, this is high compared to Greater Melbourne's median income of $57,688 and average income of $75,164. By September 2025, estimates suggest a median income of approximately $58,535 and an average income of $82,140, accounting for Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023. Census data indicates household incomes rank at the 93rd percentile ($2,634 weekly), while personal incomes rank lower at the 48th percentile. The predominant income cohort in Narre Warren North is 31.0% of locals (2,556 people) earning between $1,500 and $2,999 weekly, mirroring the regional trend where 32.8% fall into this bracket. Economic strength is evident with 42.3% of households achieving high weekly earnings exceeding $3,000, supporting elevated consumer spending. After housing costs, residents retain 89.0% of their income, reflecting strong purchasing power. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Narre Warren North is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Narre Warren North's latest Census data shows 98.9% houses and 1.1% other dwellings, compared to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1%. Home ownership in Narre Warren North was 42.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 53.8% and rented ones at 4.0%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,212, higher than Melbourne metro's $2,000. Median weekly rent was $410, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Narre Warren North's mortgage repayments exceed the Australian average of $1,863 and rents surpass the national figure of $375.

Narre Warren North features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 91.1% of all households, including 55.0% couples with children, 28.6% couples without children, and 6.5% single parent families. Non-family households account for 8.9%, with lone person households at 7.9% and group households making up 1.2%. The median household size is 3.4 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Narre Warren North shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's university qualification rate is 24.4%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. This difference presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common (17.6%), followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.6%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Trade and technical skills are prevalent, with 34.1% of residents aged 15 and above holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas (11.5%) and certificates (22.6%).

Educational participation is high, with 31.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.0% in secondary education, 9.8% in primary education, and 6.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Narre Warren North has 22 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 13 different routes that collectively facilitate 1,015 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility to these stops is rated as moderate, with residents typically located 542 meters from the nearest one. Most residents in this primarily residential area commute outward using their cars, which remain the dominant mode of transport at 97%. On average, there are 2.6 vehicles per dwelling, higher than the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, a high proportion of residents, at 25.4%, work from home, possibly due to COVID-19 conditions.

The service frequency averages 145 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 46 weekly trips per individual stop.

Narre Warren North's residents are extremely healthy with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics indicates strong performance across Narre Warren North.

Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence were assessed by AreaSearch, showing particularly low prevalence of common health conditions among younger cohorts. Approximately 57% (~4684 people) of the total population had private health cover. The most prevalent medical conditions were arthritis (affecting 6.9% of residents) and asthma (6.2%), while 73.0% declared no medical ailments, compared to 72.6% in Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents displayed low chronic condition prevalence. As of 2018-2020 data, the area had 19.6% of residents aged 65 and over (1616 people), higher than Greater Melbourne's 15.1%. Health outcomes among seniors were above average but ranked lower nationally compared to the broader population.

Narre Warren North was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Narre Warren North has a higher cultural diversity than most local areas, with 31.6% of its population born overseas and 30.9% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the dominant religion in Narre Warren North, comprising 54.3% of people. Islam is overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne, making up 10.1% of the population versus 5.6%.

The top three ancestry groups are Australian (21.2%), English (19.0%), and Other (17.8%). Notably, Hungarian (0.6%) and Dutch (2.4%) populations are higher than regional averages of 0.3% and 1.2%, respectively. Sri Lankan representation is also higher at 1.3%.

Narre Warren North's median age exceeds the national pattern

The median age in Narre Warren North is 42 years, significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and Australia's national average of 38 years. The 55-64 age group comprises 15.7% of the population, compared to Greater Melbourne, while the 25-34 cohort makes up 8.9%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 4.6% to 6.1%, and the 15 to 24 cohort increased from 16.0% to 17.3%. Conversely, the 5 to 14 cohort has declined from 13.3% to 11.9%, and the 45 to 54 group dropped from 15.5% to 14.1%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes in Narre Warren North, with the 75 to 84 age group expected to grow by 44% (219 people), reaching 723 from 503. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 89% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, the 25 to 34 and 0 to 4 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.