Narre Warren North

Population growth drivers in Narre Warren North are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

The population of Narre Warren North is estimated at approximately 8,248 as of February 2026. This figure reflects an increase of 215 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 8,033. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 8,003 in June 2024, based on the latest ERP data release by the ABS, and an additional 67 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 374 persons per square kilometer. The primary driver for this growth was overseas migration, contributing approximately 98.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch's projections for Narre Warren North are based on ABS/Geoscience Australia data released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. According to these projections, Narre Warren North is expected to increase its population by approximately 600 persons by 2041, reflecting a gain of about 4.2% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Narre Warren North, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers in Narre Warren North, around 23 residential properties have been granted approval each year over the past five financial years from FY-17 to FY-21. This totals an estimated 118 homes. In the current financial year FY-26 up to now, 21 approvals have been recorded. Despite a fall in population during this period, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, indicating a well-balanced market with good buyer choice.

The average value of new homes being built is $867,000, suggesting developers are focusing on the premium market with high-end developments. There have also been $14.7 million in commercial approvals this financial year, showing steady commercial investment activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Narre Warren North shows substantially reduced construction, at 52.0% below the regional average per person. This constrained new construction typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing properties, although recent construction activity has intensified. This is also under the national average, indicating the area's established nature and suggesting potential planning limitations.

All new construction in Narre Warren North has been comprised of standalone homes, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. With around 262 people per dwelling approval, Narre Warren North shows characteristics of a low density area. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Narre Warren North is expected to grow by 344 residents through to 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Narre Warren North has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Infrastructure changes significantly influence local performance. AreaSearch identified 15 projects potentially impacting the area. Major projects include Oak Ridge Residential Estate, South East Melbourne Recycled Water Supply Infrastructure Upgrades, Hallam North and Heatherton Road Upgrade, and Ellington Estate. The following list details those likely most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Narre Warren North demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Narre Warren North has a skilled workforce with the construction sector being notably prominent. The unemployment rate was 2.8% in the past year, showing an estimated employment growth of 4.1%. As of September 2025, 4,551 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.9% lower than Greater Melbourne's 4.7%.

Workforce participation is similar to Greater Melbourne's 71.0%. A high proportion, 25.4%, of residents work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Leading employment industries include construction, retail trade, and health care & social assistance. The area has a strong specialization in construction, with an employment share 2.1 times the regional level.

However, professional & technical services are under-represented at 6.7%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. Limited local employment opportunities are suggested by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 4.1% and labour force by 4.4%, leading to a 0.3 percentage point rise in unemployment rate. In contrast, Greater Melbourne had employment growth of 3.0% and labour force growth of 3.3%, with a similar unemployment rate increase. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project overall employment expansion by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Narre Warren North's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 12.9% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Narre Warren North's median taxpayer income is $54,074 and average income is $75,880 according to AreaSearch's postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023. Nationally, this is high compared to Greater Melbourne's median income of $57,688 and average income of $75,164. By September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $58,535 (median) and $82,140 (average), based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25%. Census data shows household incomes rank at the 93rd percentile ($2,634 weekly), while personal income ranks at the 48th percentile. The predominant income bracket is $1,500 - 2,999, with 31.0% of locals (2,556 people) falling into this category. High earning households, exceeding $3,000 weekly, make up 42.3%. After housing costs, residents retain 89.0% of income, indicating strong purchasing power. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Narre Warren North is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Narre Warren North's dwellings, as per the latest Census, were 98.9% houses and 1.1% other types (semi-detached, apartments, others). This contrasts with Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Narre Warren North stood at 42.3%, with mortgaged properties at 53.8% and rented ones at 4.0%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,212, higher than Melbourne metro's $2,000. Median weekly rent was $410, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Narre Warren North's mortgage repayments exceeded the Australian average of $1,863, while rents surpassed the national figure of $375.

Narre Warren North features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 91.1% of all households, consisting of 55.0% couples with children, 28.6% couples without children, and 6.5% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 8.9%, with lone person households at 7.9% and group households comprising 1.2%. The median household size is 3.4 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Narre Warren North shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's university qualification rate is 24.4%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common, at 17.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.6%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 34.1% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.5%) and certificates (22.6%). Educational participation is high, with 31.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education: 10.0% in secondary, 9.8% in primary, and 6.1% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 31.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.0% in secondary education, 9.8% in primary education, and 6.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Narre Warren North has 22 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 13 different routes that together facilitate 1,015 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is moderate, with residents on average located 542 meters from the nearest stop. As a predominantly residential zone, most commuters travel outward. Cars remain the primary mode of transportation, used by 97% of residents. Vehicle ownership stands at 2.6 per dwelling, higher than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 25.4% of residents work from home, which may be partly due to COVID-19 conditions. The average service frequency across all routes is 145 trips per day, resulting in approximately 46 weekly trips per stop.

Narre Warren North's residents are extremely healthy with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics indicates strong performance throughout Narre Warren North.

Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence were low, particularly among younger cohorts. Private health cover was found to be high at approximately 57%, covering about 4684 people. The most common medical conditions were arthritis (6.9%) and asthma (6.2%). A total of 73% declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's 72.6%. Working-age residents had low chronic condition prevalence. The area has 19.5%, or about 1608 people aged 65 and over, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's 15.1%. Health outcomes among seniors were above average but ranked lower nationally compared to the broader population.

Narre Warren North was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Narre Warren North had a higher cultural diversity than most local areas, with 31.6% of its population born overseas and 30.9% speaking languages other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Narre Warren North, accounting for 54.3% of residents. Islam was notably overrepresented, comprising 10.1% compared to Greater Melbourne's 5.6%.

The top three ancestry groups were Australian (21.2%), English (19.0%), and Other (17.8%). Hungarian (0.6%) and Dutch (2.4%) were also overrepresented compared to regional averages of 0.3% and 1.2%, respectively, while Sri Lankan was slightly higher at 1.3%.

Narre Warren North's median age exceeds the national pattern

The median age in Narre Warren North is 42 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and Australia's median age of 38 years. The 55-64 age group comprises 15.8% of the population, compared to Greater Melbourne, while the 25-34 cohort makes up 8.9%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 4.6% to 6.1%, and the 15 to 24 cohort has increased from 16.0% to 17.4%. Conversely, the 5 to 14 cohort has declined from 13.3% to 11.9%, and the 45 to 54 group has dropped from 15.5% to 14.1%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes in Narre Warren North, with the 75 to 84 age group expected to grow by 43% (214 people), reaching 718 from 503. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 93% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, the 15 to 24 and 25 to 34 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.