Narre Warren North

Narre Warren North has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

The population of the Narre Warren North statistical area (Lv2) was estimated at 8,033 people as of Nov 2021. By Nov 2025, this number is projected to increase to around 8,249, reflecting a growth of 216 people or approximately 2.7%. This change is inferred from the resident population estimate of 8,003 by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 67 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density ratio is estimated at 374 persons per square kilometer as of Nov 2025. Overseas migration contributed approximately 98.0% of overall population gains during recent periods for this area.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Looking ahead, the Narre Warren North (SA2) is expected to experience population growth just below the median of Australian statistical areas. By 2041, the area is projected to increase by 596 persons, reflecting an overall gain of approximately 4.1% over the 17-year period from 2024 to 2041.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Narre Warren North, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Narre Warren North has recorded around 23 residential properties granted approval each year over the past five financial years ending June 2021. This totals an estimated 118 homes. So far in the financial year 2026 (FY-26), 21 approvals have been recorded. Despite a fall in population during this period, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, creating a balanced market with good buyer choice.

New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost of $867,000, indicating focus on the premium market and high-end developments. There have also been $14.7 million in commercial approvals this financial year, showing steady commercial investment activity. When measured against Greater Melbourne, Narre Warren North shows substantially reduced construction activity (52.0% below regional average per person), which typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing properties. However, construction activity has intensified recently. This is also under the national average, suggesting the area's established nature and potential planning limitations.

All new construction so far has been comprised of standalone homes, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. With around 262 people per dwelling approval, Narre Warren North shows characteristics of a low density area. Looking ahead, Narre Warren North is expected to grow by approximately 337 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Narre Warren North has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 15 projects likely impacting the area. Key projects include Oak Ridge Residential Estate, South East Melbourne Recycled Water Supply Infrastructure Upgrades, Hallam North and Heatherton Road Upgrade, and Ellington Estate. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Narre Warren North demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Narre Warren North has a skilled workforce with notable representation in the construction sector. Its unemployment rate is 2.8%, lower than Greater Melbourne's 4.7%.

In the past year, ending September 2025, estimated employment growth was 4.1%. There are 4,554 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.9% below Greater Melbourne's rate. Workforce participation is similar to Greater Melbourne at 64.1%. Leading industries include construction, retail trade, and health care & social assistance.

Construction is particularly strong, with employment share being 2.1 times the regional level. However, professional & technical services are under-represented, at 6.7% compared to Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. The area offers limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by Census data comparing working population to resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 4.1%, labour force by 4.5%, raising the unemployment rate by 0.3 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne had employment growth of 3.0% and a 0.3 percentage point rise in unemployment. State-level data to 25-Nov-25 shows Victoria's employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%. National forecasts from May-25 project total employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Narre Warren North's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 12.9% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

The suburb of Narre Warren North had a median taxpayer income of $54,074 and an average income of $75,880 in financial year 2023, according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. This is higher than the national median income of $57,688 and average income of $75,164 for Greater Melbourne. By September 2025, estimates suggest a median income of approximately $58,535 and an average income of $82,140, based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023. Census data shows household incomes rank at the 93rd percentile with $2,634 weekly, while personal incomes rank lower at the 48th percentile. The predominant income bracket in Narre Warren North is $1,500 - 2,999, with 31.0% of locals (2,557 people) falling into this category, mirroring the region where 32.8% occupy this bracket. Economic strength is evident through 42.3% of households earning over $3,000 weekly, indicating elevated consumer spending. After housing costs, residents retain 89.0% of their income, reflecting strong purchasing power. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Narre Warren North is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Narre Warren North's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, was 98.9% houses and 1.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Melbourne metro's 88.1% houses and 11.8% other dwellings. Home ownership in Narre Warren North stood at 42.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 53.8% and rented ones at 4.0%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,212, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $1,900. Median weekly rent in Narre Warren North was $410, compared to Melbourne metro's $370. Nationally, Narre Warren North's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,212 versus the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were also higher at $410 compared to the national figure of $375.

Narre Warren North features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households compose 91.1% of all households, including 55.0% couples with children, 28.6% couples without children, and 6.5% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 8.9%, with lone person households at 7.9% and group households comprising 1.2%. The median household size is 3.4 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.9.

Narre Warren North shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's university qualification rate is 24.4%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent at 17.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.6%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Vocational credentials are held by 34.1% of residents aged 15 and above, with advanced diplomas at 11.5% and certificates at 22.6%. Educational participation is high, with 31.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 10.0% in secondary education, 9.8% in primary education, and 6.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis indicates that Narre Warren North currently has 22 operational public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 13 different routes combined offering a total of 1015 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of transport in the area is assessed as moderate, with residents usually residing about 542 metres from their nearest stop.

On average, there are 145 trips daily across all routes, which translates to roughly 46 weekly trips per individual stop.

Narre Warren North's residents are extremely healthy with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Narre Warren North. Both young and old age cohorts have low prevalence of common health conditions.

The rate of private health cover is very high at approximately 57% of the total population (~4684 people), compared to 52.9% across Greater Melbourne. The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and asthma, impacting 6.9% and 6.2% of residents respectively. 73.0% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 72.0% across Greater Melbourne. The area has 18.5% of residents aged 65 and over (1526 people), which is higher than the 15.7% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

Narre Warren North was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Narre Warren North had a higher cultural diversity than most local areas, with 31.6% of its residents born overseas and 30.9% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Narre Warren North, accounting for 54.3% of the population. Islam was notably more prevalent in Narre Warren North compared to Greater Melbourne, with 10.1% versus 11.4%.

The top three ancestry groups were Australian (21.2%), English (19.0%), and Other (17.8%). Notable differences existed for Hungarian (0.6% vs regional 0.7%), Dutch (2.4% vs 1.6%), and Sri Lankan (1.3% vs 2.3%) groups.

Narre Warren North's median age exceeds the national pattern

The median age in Narre Warren North is 42 years, significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and Australia's national average of 38 years. The 55-64 age group comprises 15.8% of the population, compared to Greater Melbourne, while the 25-34 cohort makes up 9.1%. Post-2021 Census data shows that the 75-84 age group has increased from 4.6% to 5.7% of the population. Conversely, the 35-44 age group has decreased from 10.2% to 9.1%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes in Narre Warren North. The 75-84 age group is projected to grow by 52%, reaching 714 people from 470. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 89% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, the 45-54 and 25-34 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.