Narre Warren North

Population growth drivers in Narre Warren North are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

As of May 2026, the estimated population of Narre Warren North is around 8,074 people. This figure represents an increase of 41 individuals since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 8,033 people. The recent growth is inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate of 8,074, based on their examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS (June 2025) and an additional 69 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 366 persons per square kilometer. The primary driver for this growth was overseas migration, contributing approximately 98.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch's projections for Narre Warren North are based on ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 for each SA2 area. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted using a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Looking ahead, Narre Warren North is expected to experience a population increase just below the median of Australian statistical areas by 2041. According to aggregated SA2-level projections, the suburb is anticipated to gain an additional 586 persons by that year, reflecting a total growth of 7.3% over the 16-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Narre Warren North, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Narre Warren North recorded approximately 23 residential properties granted approval each year over the past five financial years ending FY26. This totals an estimated 118 homes. As of FY26, 27 approvals have been recorded. Despite a decrease in population during this period, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, indicating a balanced market with good buyer choice.

The average expected construction cost value for new homes is $867,000, suggesting developers focus on the premium market with high-end developments. In FY26, there have been $14.7 million in commercial approvals, demonstrating steady commercial investment activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Narre Warren North shows substantially reduced construction (52.0% below regional average per person), which typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing properties. However, recent construction activity has intensified. This is also under the national average, suggesting the area's established nature and potential planning limitations.

All new construction in the area has been comprised of standalone homes, maintaining its traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. With around 263 people per dwelling approval, Narre Warren North exhibits characteristics of a low density area. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Narre Warren North is expected to grow by 586 residents through to 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Narre Warren North has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 15 projects likely impacting the area. Key projects include Oak Ridge Residential Estate, South East Melbourne Recycled Water Supply Infrastructure Upgrades, Hallam North and Heatherton Road Upgrade, and Ellington Estate. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Narre Warren North demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Narre Warren North has a skilled workforce with notable representation in the construction sector. Its unemployment rate was 2.9% as of December 2025. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 4.1%.

The area's unemployment rate is 1.9% lower than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%, with workforce participation similar to Greater Melbourne's 69.9%. According to Census responses, 25.4% of residents work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Leading employment industries include construction, retail trade, and health care & social assistance. The area shows strong specialization in construction with an employment share of 2.1 times the regional level.

However, professional & technical services are under-represented at 6.7%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited as indicated by Census data on working population versus resident population. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment levels increased by 4.1% while the labour force grew by 4.7%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.5 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 2.4% and labour force growth of 2.8%, with a 0.3 percentage point rise in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest potential future demand within Narre Warren North. National employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Narre Warren North's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 12.9% over ten years.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Narre Warren North has a median taxpayer income of $54,074 and an average income of $75,880 in the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year 2023. This is high nationally compared to Greater Melbourne's median income of $57,688 and average income of $75,164. Based on a Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes for March 2026 would be approximately $59,276 (median) and $83,180 (average). According to census data, household incomes rank at the 93rd percentile ($2,634 weekly), while personal income ranks at the 48th percentile. The predominant income bracket is $1,500 - 2,999, with 31.0% of locals (2,502 people) falling into this category. Economic strength is evident as 42.3% of households have high weekly earnings exceeding $3,000, supporting elevated consumer spending. After housing costs, residents retain 89.0% of their income, indicating strong purchasing power. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Narre Warren North is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Narre Warren North's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, were 98.9% houses and 1.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), contrasting with Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Narre Warren North stood at 42.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 53.8% and rented ones at 4.0%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,212, higher than Melbourne metro's $2,000, while the median weekly rent was $410, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Narre Warren North's mortgage repayments exceeded the Australian average of $1,863, and rents surpassed the national figure of $375.

Narre Warren North features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 91.1% of all households, including 55.0% couples with children, 28.6% couples without children, and 6.5% single parent families. Non-family households account for 8.9%, with lone person households at 7.9% and group households making up 1.2%. The median household size is 3.4 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Narre Warren North shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's university qualification rate is 24.4%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 17.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.6%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 34.1% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 11.5% and certificates at 22.6%. Educational participation is high, with 31.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 10.0% in secondary education, 9.8% in primary education, and 6.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 31.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.0% in secondary education, 9.8% in primary education, and 6.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Narre Warren North has 22 active public transport stops, all served by buses. These stops are covered by 13 different routes, offering a total of 1,015 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is moderate, with residents typically living 542 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outwards daily, primarily using cars (97%). On average, there are 2.6 vehicles per dwelling, higher than the regional norm. According to the 2021 Census, 25.4% of residents work from home, which could be due to COVID-19 conditions.

Across all routes, buses run an average of 145 trips daily, equating to about 46 weekly trips per individual stop.

Narre Warren North's residents are extremely healthy with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Narre Warren North.

Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence were assessed by AreaSearch, with younger cohorts showing very low prevalence of common health conditions. The rate of private health cover was found to be very high at approximately 57% of the total population, which is around 4,585 people. The most common medical conditions in the area were arthritis and asthma, impacting 6.9 and 6.2% of residents respectively. A total of 73.0% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents showed low chronic condition prevalence. The area has 19.3% of residents aged 65 and over, which is 1,558 people, higher than the 15.0% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors are above average but rank lower nationally than the broader population.

Narre Warren North was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Narre Warren North's population, as per the Australian Bureau of Statistics Census Data from June 2016, exhibited a higher level of cultural diversity compared to most local areas. Specifically, 31.6% of its residents were born overseas and 30.9% spoke languages other than English at home. Christianity was identified as the predominant religion in Narre Warren North, with 54.3% of people adhering to it.

However, Islam showed a notable overrepresentation compared to Greater Melbourne figures, comprising 10.1% of Narre Warren North's population versus the regional average of 5.6%. Regarding ancestry (country of birth of parents), Australians made up 21.2%, English residents constituted 19.0%, and those identifying as 'Other' comprised 17.8% of the population in Narre Warren North. Some ethnic groups showed significant deviations from regional averages: Hungarian residents were overrepresented at 0.6% versus 0.3%, Dutch at 2.4% compared to 1.2%, and Sri Lankan at 1.3% against a regional average of 0.8%.

Narre Warren North's median age exceeds the national pattern

The median age in Narre Warren North is 42 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and Australia's national average of 38 years. The 55-64 age group makes up 15.8% of the population in Narre Warren North, compared to Greater Melbourne, while the 25-34 age group is less prevalent at 9.2%. Post-2021 Census data shows that the 15-24 age group has grown from 16.0% to 17.6%, and the 75-84 age group has increased from 4.6% to 6.1%. Conversely, the 5-14 age group has declined from 13.3% to 11.8%, and the 45-54 age group has dropped from 15.5% to 14.0%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes in Narre Warren North, with the 75-84 age group expected to grow by 47% (229 people), reaching 722 from 492. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 76% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, the 0-4 and 35-44 age cohorts are expected to experience population declines.