Pakenham

Pakenham lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

As per ABS population updates and AreaSearch validation for the broader area, the suburb of Pakenham's estimated population stands at around 59,816 as of Feb 2026. This figure reflects a growth of 5,698 people (10.5%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 54,118. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimated resident population of 57,635 in June 2024 and an additional 1,123 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 696 persons per square kilometer, comparable to averages seen across other locations assessed by AreaSearch. Pakenham's growth rate exceeded the national average of 9.9%, positioning it as a growth leader in the region. Natural growth contributed approximately 54.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, the suburb is forecasted to increase its population by 23,026 persons, reflecting a total increase of 34.9% over the 17-year period.

The level of residential development activity in Pakenham was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Pakenham had around 328 dwelling approvals per year. Between FY-21 and FY-25, approximately 1,640 homes were approved, with another 208 approved in FY-26 so far. This results in about 3.2 new residents per home built annually over the past five financial years.

The average construction cost value for new dwellings is $359,000. In FY-26, commercial development approvals totaled $19.6 million. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Pakenham has about two-thirds the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and ranks in the 72nd percentile nationally.

New building activity consists of 80.0% standalone homes and 20.0% townhouses or apartments. Pakenham's population is projected to grow by 20,845 residents by 2041, potentially outpacing housing supply at current development rates.

Pakenham has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 17 projects that could impact the area. Notable ones are Pakenham Community Hospital, Kala Estate, Enterprise Industry Park, and Pakenham Place Redevelopment. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Pakenham remain below the national average according to AreaSearch analysis

Pakenham has a skilled workforce with the construction sector being notably represented. The unemployment rate was 5.9% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 4.0%. As of December 2025, there were 30,821 residents employed, and the unemployment rate was 1.1% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%.

Workforce participation was similar to Greater Melbourne's at 71.3%. According to Census responses, 17.9% of residents worked from home. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. The area has a strong specialization in manufacturing with an employment share of 1.5 times the regional level.

However, professional & technical services have limited presence at 4.6% compared to the regional average of 10.1%. Employment opportunities locally appear limited as indicated by the Census working population vs resident population count. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment levels increased by 4.0%, labour force grew by 4.7%, resulting in an unemployment rise of 0.7 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 2.4%, labour force growth of 2.8%, with unemployment rising by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that Pakenham's employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 13.0% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation of industry-specific projections against the local employment mix.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

The suburb of Pakenham has a median taxpayer income of $50,838 and an average income of $57,592 according to the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year 2023. This is lower than the national average, which contrasts with Greater Melbourne's median income of $57,688 and average income of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Pakenham would be approximately $55,032 (median) and $62,343 (average) as of September 2025. Census data indicates that household, family, and personal incomes in Pakenham rank modestly, between the 45th and 45th percentiles. The earnings profile shows that 39.9% of the population, which consists of 23,866 individuals, fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 income range, aligning with regional levels where this cohort also represents 32.8%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Pakenham, with only 81.6% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 43rd percentile.

Pakenham is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Pakenham's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 86.4% houses and 13.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In contrast, Melbourne metro had 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Pakenham was at 19.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 48.3% and rented ones at 32.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,733, lower than Melbourne metro's $2,000. The median weekly rent figure was $351, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Pakenham's mortgage repayments were below the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Pakenham has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 75.6% of all households, including 37.0% couples with children, 22.8% couples without children, and 14.7% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 24.4%, with lone person households at 21.6% and group households comprising 2.8%. The median household size is 2.8 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Educational attainment in Pakenham aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 20.6%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 13.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.8%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 39.7% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 12.7% and certificates at 27.0%. Educational participation is high, with 32.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 12.6% in primary, 7.7% in secondary, and 3.9% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis indicates 172 active transport stops operating within Pakenham. These comprise a mix of train and bus services. Twelve individual routes service these stops, collectively providing 3,319 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 274 meters from the nearest stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward using cars at 90%, while 6% use trains. Vehicle ownership averages 1.5 per dwelling, exceeding the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 17.9% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 474 trips daily across all routes, equating to approximately 19 weekly trips per individual stop. The accompanying map displays the 100 nearest stops to the location centrepoint.

Health performance in Pakenham is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a considerably higher degree among older age cohorts

Pakenham faces significant health challenges based on AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are high, with common health conditions prevalent across all age groups but more so among older cohorts. Private health cover is relatively low at approximately 50% of the total population (~29,704 people), compared to 56.7% in Greater Melbourne and 55.7% nationally.

The most common medical conditions are mental health issues (9.3%) and asthma (9.0%). 69.5% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among the working-age population are typical. 13.1% of residents are aged 65 and over (7,835 people), lower than Greater Melbourne's 15.1%. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges but rank lower nationally than the broader population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Pakenham was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Pakenham's population showed higher cultural diversity compared to most local markets, with 29.4% born overseas and 24.5% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Pakenham, accounting for 40.8%. The category 'Other' had an overrepresentation of 4.8%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 2.3%.

In terms of ancestry, English (25.6%) and Australian (24.6%) were substantially higher than regional averages of 20.1% and 18.4% respectively. Other notable groups included Dutch (2.3%), Sri Lankan (1.1%), and Hungarian (0.4%).

Pakenham's young demographic places it in the bottom 15% of areas nationwide

Pakenham's median age is 33, which is younger than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and Australia's national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Pakenham has a higher proportion of residents aged 5-14 (14.8%) but fewer residents aged 55-64 (8.4%). Between the 2021 Census and now, the population aged 35-44 has grown from 15.7% to 16.8%, while the 25-34 age group has declined from 17.6% to 16.2%. The 0-4 age group has also decreased from 8.3% to 7.3%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic shifts in Pakenham, with the strongest projected growth in the 45-54 age cohort, expected to increase by 53%, adding 3,532 residents to reach a total of 10,172.