Pakenham

Pakenham lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

As of November 2025, Pakenham's population is estimated at around 58,933, reflecting an increase of 4,815 people since the 2021 Census. The ABS ERP estimate for surrounding areas applied to Pakenham by AreaSearch in June 2024 was 57,111, with an additional 1,069 validated new addresses since the Census date contributing to this growth. This results in a population density of approximately 686 persons per square kilometer. Over the past decade, Pakenham has shown resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 3.1%, outpacing its SA4 region. Natural growth contributed about 54% of overall population gains during recent periods. AreaSearch's projections for Pakenham are based on ABS/Geoscience Australia data released in 2024, using 2022 as the base year.

For areas not covered by this data, VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 are used with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, Pakenham is forecasted to grow by 25,399 persons based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 42.1% in total over the 17-year period.

The level of residential development activity in Pakenham was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data indicates Pakenham averaged around 314 new dwelling approvals per year over the past 5 financial years, totalling an estimated 1,573 homes. As of FY-26109 approvals have been recorded. Between FY-21 and FY-25, an average of 3.3 new residents arrived per dwelling constructed annually. Commercial approvals registered this financial year totalled $18.9 million.

Pakenham records roughly half the building activity per person compared to Greater Melbourne, placing it among the 74th percentile nationally for assessed areas. New development consists of 78.0% detached dwellings and 22.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's traditional low density character. With around 165 people per dwelling approval, Pakenham shows characteristics of a growth area.

Population forecasts indicate Pakenham will gain 24,827 residents through to 2041, based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Should current construction levels persist, housing supply could lag population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Pakenham has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 17 projects that could impact this region. Notable ones are Pakenham Community Hospital, Kala Estate, Enterprise Industry Park, and Pakenham Place Redevelopment. The following list details those expected to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Pakenham has seen below average employment performance when compared to national benchmarks

Pakenham's workforce is skilled with notable representation in construction. The unemployment rate was 5.7% as of June 2025.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 3.6%. In June 2025, 30,352 residents were employed with an unemployment rate of 1.1% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation was similar to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Dominant employment sectors included health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade.

Manufacturing showed strong specialization with an employment share 1.5 times the regional level. Professional & technical services were under-represented at 4.6% compared to Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. Employment opportunities locally appeared limited based on Census working population vs resident population data. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 3.6%, labour force grew by 4.4%, leading to an unemployment rise of 0.7 percentage points. In Greater Melbourne, employment rose by 3.5%, labour force grew by 4.0%, and unemployment rose by 0.5 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying rates across sectors. Applying these projections to Pakenham's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 13.0% over ten years.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

Pakenham's median income among taxpayers in financial year 2022 was $50,872. The average income stood at $57,629 during the same period. For Greater Melbourne, these figures were $54,892 and $73,761 respectively. Based on a 12.16% growth in wages since financial year 2022, current estimates for Pakenham's median income would be approximately $57,058 as of September 2025, with the average estimated to be around $64,637 by that date. According to census data, household, family and personal incomes in Pakenham rank modestly, between the 45th and 45th percentiles. Income distribution shows that 39.9% of residents (23,514 people) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket, mirroring regional levels where 32.8% occupy this bracket. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Pakenham, with only 81.6% of income remaining, ranking at the 43rd percentile.

Pakenham is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Pakenham's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 86.4% houses and 13.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's figures of 91.1% houses and 8.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Pakenham stood at 19.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 48.3% and rented ones at 32.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, lower than Melbourne metro's $1,866. The median weekly rent in Pakenham was $351, compared to Melbourne metro's $361. Nationally, Pakenham's mortgage repayments were below the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Pakenham has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 75.6% of all households, including 37.0% couples with children, 22.8% couples without children, and 14.7% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 24.4%, with lone person households at 21.6% and group households making up 2.8%. The median household size is 2.8 people, which aligns with the Greater Melbourne average.

Educational attainment in Pakenham aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate in 2016 was 20.6%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees were the most common at 13.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.8%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Vocational credentials were prevalent, with 39.7% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (12.7%) and certificates (27.0%). Educational participation was high at 32.7%, with 12.6% in primary education, 7.7% in secondary education, and 3.9% pursuing tertiary education.

There were 13 schools serving 9,329 students, with typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1002) and a balanced educational mix of 7 primary, 4 secondary, and 2 K-12 schools.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Pakenham has 174 active public transport stops. These are a mix of train and bus services. There are 18 individual routes operating in total.

They provide 3,869 weekly passenger trips combined. The average distance from residents to the nearest transport stop is 274 meters. On average, there are 552 trips per day across all routes. This equates to approximately 22 weekly trips per individual stop.

Pakenham's residents are relatively healthy in comparison to broader Australia with the level of common health conditions among the general population somewhat typical, though higher than the nation's average among older cohorts

Pakenham's health metrics are close to national benchmarks, with common health conditions among its general population being somewhat typical but higher than the national average among older cohorts. Approximately 50% of Pakenham's total population (~29,272 people) has private health cover, compared to the national average of 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical conditions in the area are mental health issues and asthma, affecting 9.3 and 9.0% of residents respectively. Meanwhile, 69.5% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 70.3% across Greater Melbourne. Pakenham has 12.7% of its residents aged 65 and over (7,484 people). Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges that require more attention than the broader population.

Pakenham was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Pakenham's population, as of the 2016 Census, was found to be more culturally diverse than most local markets. 29.4% of its residents were born overseas, with 24.5% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Pakenham, accounting for 40.8% of the population.

However, there's an overrepresentation in the 'Other' category, which comprises 4.8% of Pakenham's population compared to Melbourne's 3.2%. In terms of ancestry, the top three groups are English (25.6%), Australian (24.6%), and Other (14.7%). Notably, Dutch (2.3%) and Sri Lankan (1.1%) populations in Pakenham align with regional figures, while Hungarian representation is slightly higher at 0.4%.

Pakenham's young demographic places it in the bottom 15% of areas nationwide

Pakenham has a median age of 33, which is younger than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and Australia's national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Pakenham has a higher proportion of residents aged 5-14 (15.1%) but fewer residents aged 55-64 (8.2%). Between the 2021 Census and the present, the population in the 35-44 age group has increased from 15.7% to 16.7%. Conversely, the proportion of residents aged 25-34 has decreased from 17.6% to 16.6%. By 2041, significant demographic changes are projected for Pakenham. The 45-54 age group is expected to grow by 63%, adding 4,110 residents and reaching a total of 10,593.