Pakenham

Pakenham lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

The population of the Pakenham statistical area (Lv2) is estimated to be around 59,614 as of November 2025. This represents an increase of 5,496 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 54,118. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of the resident population at 57,635 in June 2024, based on examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS, and an additional 1,069 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 694 persons per square kilometer, which is relatively in line with averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. The Pakenham (SA2) experienced a growth rate of 10.2% between the 2021 Census and June 2024, exceeding the national average of 9.7%. Natural growth contributed approximately 54.0% of overall population gains during this period.

AreaSearch is using ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusting using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. According to aggregated SA2-level projections, the Pakenham (SA2) is forecasted to grow by 25,404 persons to 2041, reflecting an increase of 40.5% in total over the 17-year period.

The level of residential development activity in Pakenham was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Pakenham averaged around 326 new dwelling approvals per year over the past 5 financial years ending June 2021, totalling an estimated 1,632 homes. As of July 2022190 approvals have been recorded in FY-26. This averages out to around 3.2 new residents arriving per dwelling constructed over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), indicating demand significantly outpaces supply, which typically puts upward pressure on prices and increases competition among buyers. New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $358,000.

In terms of commercial development, $19.6 million in approvals have been registered this financial year. Relative to Greater Melbourne, Pakenham has around half the rate of new dwelling approvals per person while it places among the 72nd percentile of areas assessed nationally. New development consists of 80.0% detached houses and 20.0% medium and high-density housing, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space.

Pakenham reflects a developing area, with around 179 people per approval. Population forecasts indicate Pakenham will gain 24,151 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Pakenham has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 17 projects that could impact this region. Notable ones are Pakenham Community Hospital, Kala Estate, Enterprise Industry Park, and Pakenham Place Redevelopment. The following list details the most relevant projects.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Pakenham has seen below average employment performance when compared to national benchmarks

Pakenham has a skilled workforce with the construction sector being prominent. The unemployment rate was 5.6% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 4.3%.

As of September 2025, 30,600 residents are employed, and the unemployment rate is 1.0% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%. Workforce participation is similar to Greater Melbourne's at 64.1%. Key employment sectors include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Manufacturing stands out with employment levels at 1.5 times the regional average.

However, professional & technical services employ only 4.6% of local workers, lower than Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. The area may offer limited local employment opportunities, indicated by a comparison of Census working population and resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment increased by 4.3%, while labour force grew by 4.9%, leading to an unemployment rate rise of 0.5 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment growth of 3.0% and a 0.3 percentage point increase in unemployment. State-level data from 25-Nov-25 shows Victorian employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%, compared to the national rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's May-25 projections forecast national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Pakenham's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 13.0% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data released for financial year 2023, Pakenham had a median income among taxpayers of $50,838 and an average level of $57,592. This is below the national average of $61,434 and compares to levels of $57,688 and $75,164 across Greater Melbourne respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $55,032 (median) and $62,343 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census figures, household income in Pakenham ranks at the 45th percentile, family income at the 45th percentile, and personal income at the 47th percentile. In terms of income distribution, 39.9% of locals (23,785 people) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 category, similar to regional levels where 32.8% occupy this range. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Pakenham, with only 81.6% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 43rd percentile.

Pakenham is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Dwelling structure in Pakenham, as evaluated at the latest Census held on 28 August 2016, comprised 86.4% houses and 13.6% other dwellings such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This is compared to Melbourne metropolitan area's structure of 91.1% houses and 8.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Pakenham stood at 19.5%, with the rest being mortgaged (48.3%) or rented (32.1%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,733 as of 2016, lower than Melbourne metro's average of $1,866. The median weekly rent figure for Pakenham was recorded at $351, compared to Melbourne metro's $361. Nationally, Pakenham's mortgage repayments were below the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Pakenham has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 75.6% of all households, including 37.0% couples with children, 22.8% couples without children, and 14.7% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 24.4%, consisting of 21.6% lone person households and 2.8% group households. The median household size is 2.8 people, which aligns with the Greater Melbourne average.

Educational attainment in Pakenham aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 20.6%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent at 13.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.8%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Vocational credentials are common, with 39.7% of residents aged 15+ holding them. Advanced diplomas account for 12.7% and certificates for 27.0%.

Educational participation is high at 32.7%, including 12.6% in primary education, 7.7% in secondary education, and 3.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 172 active stops operating within Pakenham, consisting of both train and bus services. These stops are served by 12 routes in total, facilitating 3,319 weekly passenger trips. Residential accessibility to transport is rated good, with residents situated an average of 274 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 474 trips daily across all routes, equating to approximately 19 weekly trips per individual stop.

Pakenham's residents are relatively healthy in comparison to broader Australia with the level of common health conditions among the general population somewhat typical, though higher than the nation's average among older cohorts

Pakenham's health metrics are close to national benchmarks. Common health conditions among its general population are somewhat typical but higher than the national average among older cohorts. Approximately 50% of Pakenham's total population (~29,604 people) has private health cover, compared to Greater Melbourne's 51.8% and the national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions are mental health issues (9.3%) and asthma (9.0%). About 69.5% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to Greater Melbourne's 70.3%. Pakenham has 12.7% of residents aged 65 and over (7,570 people). Health outcomes among seniors require more attention than the broader population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Pakenham was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Pakenham's population, as per the Australian Bureau of Statistics Census Data from June 30th, 2016, shows higher cultural diversity compared to most local markets. Overseas-born residents make up 29.4%, and those speaking a language other than English at home constitute 24.5%. Christianity is the predominant religion in Pakenham, with 40.8% of people adhering to it.

The category 'Other' (religion) has a higher representation in Pakenham at 4.8%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 3.2%. Regarding ancestry, English and Australian are the top two groups, comprising 25.6% and 24.6% respectively. The 'Other' category stands at 14.7%. Notably, Dutch and Sri Lankan ethnic groups have similar representation in Pakenham (2.3% and 1.1%) as in Greater Melbourne. Hungarian ethnicity is also similarly represented at 0.4% in both areas.

Pakenham's young demographic places it in the bottom 15% of areas nationwide

Pakenham's median age is 33, which is younger than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and Australia's national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Pakenham has a higher proportion of residents aged 5-14 (15.1%) but fewer residents aged 55-64 (8.2%). Between the 2021 Census and present, the population aged 35-44 has increased from 15.7% to 16.7%, while the 25-34 age group has decreased from 17.6% to 16.6%. By 2041, demographic forecasts indicate significant changes in Pakenham's population, with the strongest growth projected for the 45-54 age cohort (62%), which is expected to add 4,034 residents and reach a total of 10,592.