Yarra Junction

Population growth drivers in Yarra Junction are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

The population of the Yarra Junction statistical area (Lv2) is estimated to be around 3,016 as of Nov 2025. This represents an increase of 141 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,875. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 3,001 following examination of the ABS's latest ERP data release in June 2024 and an additional 75 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 172 persons per square kilometer. The Yarra Junction (SA2) saw a growth rate of 4.9% between the 2021 Census and Nov 2025, exceeding the SA3 area's growth rate of 3.9%. Natural growth contributed approximately 65.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 for areas not covered by this data. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends anticipate lower quartile growth, with the area expected to increase by 131 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an overall increase of 1.4% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Yarra Junction according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Yarra Junction has averaged around 23 new dwelling approvals each year over the past five financial years. This totals an estimated 117 homes. So far in FY-26, 12 approvals have been recorded. Between FY-21 and FY-25, there was an average of 0.3 new residents per year per dwelling constructed.

New construction is matching or outpacing demand, offering buyers more options and enabling population growth. Properties are constructed at an average value of $509,000, indicating a focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties. This financial year has seen $12.5 million in commercial approvals registered, demonstrating moderate levels of commercial development. Relative to Greater Melbourne, Yarra Junction has 106.0% more development activity per person.

However, development activity has moderated in recent periods. New development consists of 91.0% detached dwellings and 9.0% attached dwellings, preserving the area's low density nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers. The location has approximately 177 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low density market. Future projections show Yarra Junction adding 43 residents by 2041 according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Yarra Junction has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 42ndth percentile nationally

No changes can significantly impact a region's performance like alterations to its local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified zero projects expected to affect this area. Notable projects include Additional VLocity Trains, Level Crossing Removal Project (Melbourne), Suburban Roads Upgrade, and Telstra InfraCo Intercity Fibre Network, with the following list outlining those most pertinent.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Yarra Junction has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Yarra Junction has a diverse workforce with both white and blue collar jobs. The construction sector is prominent, with an unemployment rate of 5.5% and estimated employment growth of 1.7% in the past year, according to AreaSearch data.

As of September 2025, there are 1,328 employed residents, with an unemployment rate of 5.6%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 4.7%. Workforce participation is lower at 54.1%. Key industries include construction, health care & social assistance, and education & training. Construction employment is high at 1.9 times the regional average, while professional & technical jobs are lower at 3.6% compared to the regional average of 10.1%.

In the past year, employment increased by 1.7%, labour force grew by 0.6%, and unemployment decreased by 1.0 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment grow by 3.0%, labour force expand by 3.3%, and unemployment rise by 0.3 percentage points. As of 25-Nov in Victoria, employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%. National employment forecasts suggest growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Yarra Junction's employment mix indicates local employment should increase by 5.9% over five years and 12.4% over ten years.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year ended June 2023, Yarra Junction had a median income among taxpayers of $42,825 and an average income of $51,637. This is lower than the national averages of $57,688 and $75,164 for Greater Melbourne respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year ended June 2023, estimated median income as of September 2025 would be approximately $46,358 and average income $55,897. From the Census conducted in August 2021, household, family, and personal incomes in Yarra Junction fall between the 13th and 20th percentiles nationally. Income analysis shows that 30.4% of the population (916 individuals) have incomes ranging from $1,500 to $2,999, similar to the region where 32.8% occupy this bracket. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Yarra Junction, with only 82.0% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 19th percentile nationally.

Yarra Junction is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Yarra Junction's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 79.9% houses and 20.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Melbourne metro's 93.8% houses and 6.3% other dwellings. Home ownership in Yarra Junction stood at 38.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 42.7% and rented ones at 18.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,800, lower than Melbourne metro's $1,950 and the national average of $1,863. Median weekly rent in Yarra Junction was $300, below Melbourne metro's $380 and the national figure of $375.

Yarra Junction features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 67.1% of all households, including 29.5% couples with children, 25.0% couples without children, and 12.1% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 32.9%, with lone person households making up 30.7% and group households comprising 2.2%. The median household size is 2.5 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.7.

Educational attainment in Yarra Junction aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 14.7%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 10.0%, followed by graduate diplomas (2.4%) and postgraduate qualifications (2.3%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 44.2% of residents aged 15 and above holding them – advanced diplomas at 11.3% and certificates at 32.9%. Educational participation is high, with 28.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education: 12.0% in primary, 8.5% in secondary, and 2.4% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 28.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 12.0% in primary education, 8.5% in secondary education, and 2.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Yarra Junction has 16 operational public transport stops. These are served by buses only. There is one route in operation, offering a total of 148 weekly passenger trips across all stops.

The average distance from residents to the nearest stop is 317 meters. On average, there are 21 trips per day, equating to about 9 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Yarra Junction is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Yarra Junction faces significant health challenges, as indicated by data showing high prevalence of common health conditions across both younger and older age groups. Only approximately 47% of Yarra Junction's total population (~1,427 people) has private health cover, compared to Greater Melbourne's 53.1% and the national average of 55.7%. Mental health issues and arthritis are the most prevalent conditions in the area, affecting 9.9% and 9.4% of residents respectively.

However, 63.6% of Yarra Junction residents report having no medical ailments, compared to Greater Melbourne's 66.9%. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over, at 24.6% (741 people), than Greater Melbourne's 19.4%. Health outcomes among seniors in Yarra Junction generally align with the overall population's health profile.

Yarra Junction is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Yarra Junction, as per the census data from June 2016, had a cultural diversity index below the average. The population breakdown showed that 88.2% were Australian citizens, with 86.6% born in Australia and 96.8% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 39.0% of the population.

Notably, Judaism had a negligible presence at 0.0%, compared to 0.1% across Greater Melbourne. In terms of ancestry, Australians made up the largest group at 33.8%, significantly higher than the regional average of 28.1%. This was followed by those of English descent (33.1%) and Irish descent (8.6%). Some ethnic groups showed notable differences: Dutch were slightly overrepresented at 2.6% compared to 3.2% regionally, Sri Lankans had a slightly higher representation at 0.4% versus 0.3%, and Germans were nearly equal at 3.5% against the regional average of 3.6%.

Yarra Junction hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

The median age in Yarra Junction is 43 years, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and exceeds the national average of 38 years. The age profile shows that individuals aged 65-74 are particularly prominent, making up 12.0% of the population, while those aged 25-34 comprise only 10.0%. Between 2021 and present, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 7.5% to 9.0% of the population. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 12.9% to 11.1%, and the 5 to 14 age group has dropped from 13.2% to 11.9%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Yarra Junction's age structure. The 75 to 84 age cohort is projected to increase by 100 people (37%), growing from 271 to 372 individuals. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 99% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. Meanwhile, the 55 to 64 and 25 to 34 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.