Yarra Junction

Population growth drivers in Yarra Junction are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch since the Census, Yarra Junction's population is estimated at around 3019 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 144 people (5.0%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2875 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 3001 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 77 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 172 persons per square kilometer, providing significant space per person and potential room for further development. Yarra Junction's 5.0% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area (4.0%), along with the SA4 region, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the suburb was primarily driven by natural growth that contributed approximately 65.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Examining future population trends, a population increase just below the median of statistical areas across the nation is expected in Yarra Junction. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the suburb is expected to increase by 135 persons to 2041, reflecting an increase of 1.4% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Yarra Junction according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Yarra Junction has averaged approximately 23 new dwelling approvals each year over the past five financial years. This totals an estimated 117 homes between FY-21 and FY-25. As of FY-26, 12 approvals have been recorded. Over this period, an average of 0.3 new residents per year has been associated with each dwelling constructed.

New construction is meeting or exceeding demand, providing buyers with more options and potentially enabling population growth to exceed current expectations. The average expected construction cost value for new properties is $509,000, indicating a focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties. In FY-26, $12.5 million in commercial approvals have been registered, demonstrating moderate levels of commercial development. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Yarra Junction has 106.0% more development activity per person.

This should provide buyers with ample choice, although development activity has moderated in recent periods. New development consists of 91.0% detached dwellings and 9.0% attached dwellings, preserving the area's low density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers. The location has approximately 177 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low density market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Yarra Junction is projected to add 41 residents by 2041. With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Yarra Junction has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 42ndth percentile nationally

No changes can significantly affect a region's performance like alterations to local infrastructure, major undertakings, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has pinpointed 0 projects expected to impact this area notably. Key projects comprise Additional VLocity Trains, Level Crossing Removal Project (Melbourne), Suburban Roads Upgrade, and Telstra InfraCo Intercity Fibre Network, with the following list highlighting those most pertinent.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Yarra Junction has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Yarra Junction has a balanced workforce encompassing both white and blue collar jobs. The construction sector is notably prominent with an unemployment rate of 5.6% and estimated employment growth of 1.7% over the past year (AreaSearch data). As of September 2025, 1,334 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 0.9% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%.

Workforce participation in Yarra Junction stands at 58.3%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 71.0%. According to Census responses, 19.2% of residents work from home. Employment is concentrated in construction, health care & social assistance, and education & training sectors. Construction employment levels are particularly high at 1.9 times the regional average, while professional & technical jobs show lower representation at 3.6%.

The area may offer limited local employment opportunities as indicated by Census data on working population versus resident population. Over a 12-month period ending in September 2025, employment increased by 1.7% and labour force grew by 0.6%, leading to a decrease in unemployment rate of 1.0 percentage points (AreaSearch analysis). In comparison, Greater Melbourne saw employment grow by 3.0%, labour force expand by 3.3%, and unemployment rise by 0.3%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, published in May-25, project overall national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Yarra Junction's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.9% over five years and 12.4% over ten years (simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes).

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released on June 30, 2023, Yarra Junction had a median income among taxpayers of $42,825 and an average level of $51,637. These figures are lower than the national averages of $57,688 and $75,164 for Greater Melbourne respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since June 30, 2023, current estimates would be approximately $46,358 (median) and $55,897 (average) as of September 2025. From the Australian Bureau of Statistics Census data released on June 28, 2021, household incomes in Yarra Junction fall between the 13th and 20th percentiles nationally. Income analysis reveals that 30.4% of the population (917 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 income range, similar to the regional figure of 32.8%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Yarra Junction, with only 82.0% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 19th percentile nationally.

Yarra Junction is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Yarra Junction's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 79.9% houses and 20.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Yarra Junction stood at 38.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 42.7% and rented ones at 18.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,800, lower than Melbourne metro's $2,000, while the median weekly rent was $300, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Yarra Junction's mortgage repayments were below the Australian average of $1,863 and rents were substantially lower at $375.

Yarra Junction features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 67.1% of all households, including 29.5% couples with children, 25.0% couples without children, and 12.1% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 32.9%, with lone person households at 30.7% and group households comprising 2.2% of the total. The median household size is 2.5 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Educational attainment in Yarra Junction aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 14.7%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 10.0%, followed by graduate diplomas (2.4%) and postgraduate qualifications (2.3%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 44.2% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 11.3% and certificates at 32.9%. Educational participation is high, with 28.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 12.0% in primary education, 8.5% in secondary education, and 2.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Yarra Junction has 16 operational public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by one route in total, offering 148 weekly passenger trips combined. The transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents located an average of 317 meters from the nearest stop. In this predominantly residential area, most commuters travel outward, with cars being the primary mode of transportation at 94%. On average, there are 1.6 vehicles per dwelling, which is higher than the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, 19.2% of residents work from home, a figure that may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

The service frequency averages 21 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately nine weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Yarra Junction is lower than average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Yarra Junction faces significant health challenges based on AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are notable across both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is very low at approximately 47% of the total population (~1,429 people), compared to 56.7% across Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are mental health issues (9.9%) and arthritis (9.4%), while 63.6% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents show an above average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 25.4% of residents aged 65 and over (766 people), which is higher than the 15.1% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Yarra Junction is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Yarra Junction, as per the census data from June 2016, showed lower than average cultural diversity. The population was predominantly Australian-born citizens, with 88.2% being citizens and 86.6% having been born in Australia. English was spoken at home by 96.8% of the population.

Christianity was the dominant religion, accounting for 39.0% of people in Yarra Junction. Notably, Judaism was not represented in the town's population, compared to a 1.0% representation across Greater Melbourne. In terms of ancestry, Australian heritage was prominent at 33.8%, which was significantly higher than the regional average of 18.4%. English ancestry followed closely at 33.1%, surpassing the regional average of 20.1%. Irish ancestry was also notable at 8.6%. Some other ethnic groups showed significant differences in representation: Dutch heritage was overrepresented at 2.6% compared to a regional average of 1.2%, Sri Lankan at 0.4% (regional average 0.8%), and German at 3.5% (regional average 2.2%).

Yarra Junction hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

The median age in Yarra Junction is 43 years, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and exceeds the national average of 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 75-84 years make up 9.5% of the population, while those aged 25-34 years constitute 9.6%. Between 2021 and present, the percentage of people aged 75-84 has increased from 7.5% to 9.5%, while the percentages for those aged 45-54 have decreased from 12.9% to 10.7% and those aged 5-14 have dropped from 13.2% to 11.8%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate that the age group of 85 years and above will rise significantly, with an increase of 96 people (an 86% rise) from 111 to 208. The combined age groups of 65+ are expected to account for 95% of total population growth. Conversely, the age groups of 25-34 and 55-64 are projected to experience population declines.