Yarra Junction

Population growth drivers in Yarra Junction are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of Nov 2025, Yarra Junction's population is estimated at around 3,007, reflecting an increase of 132 people since the 2021 Census. The ABS ERP estimate for surrounding areas applied to Yarra Junction by AreaSearch in June 2024 was 2,993, with an additional 75 validated new addresses since the Census date contributing to this figure. This results in a population density of 171 persons per square kilometer. Between the 2021 Census and Nov 2025, Yarra Junction's growth rate exceeded that of its SA3 area (3.3%) and SA4 region, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Natural growth accounted for approximately 65.0% of overall population gains during this period. AreaSearch is using ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 for each SA2 area.

For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, the suburb is expected to increase by 131 persons based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an overall increase of 1.7% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Yarra Junction according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers from statistical area data, Yarra Junction has averaged approximately 24 new dwelling approvals each year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 121 homes. As of FY-26, 12 approvals have been recorded. This averages to about 0.3 new residents per year per dwelling constructed between FY-21 and FY-25, suggesting that new construction is meeting or exceeding demand. The average expected construction cost value for these properties is $509,000.

In the current financial year, there have been $8.0 million in commercial approvals, indicating a primarily residential area. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Yarra Junction has recorded 113.0% more new home approvals per person. Recent construction comprises approximately 91.0% detached houses and 9.0% medium and high-density housing, maintaining the area's low density nature. There are about 177 people per dwelling approval in the location.

According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Yarra Junction is projected to grow by 52 residents by 2041. With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Yarra Junction has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

No changes can significantly affect a region's performance like alterations to local infrastructure, major undertakings, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has pinpointed 0 projects that could potentially impact this area. Notable projects include Additional VLocity Trains, Level Crossing Removal Project (Melbourne), Suburban Roads Upgrade, and Telstra InfraCo Intercity Fibre Network, with the following list outlining those most pertinent.

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Employment performance in Yarra Junction has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Yarra Junction's workforce comprises both white and blue-collar jobs. The construction sector is prominent with an unemployment rate of 5.2% and estimated employment growth of 1.8% in the past year.

As of June 2025, 1,335 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 5.8%, 1.2 percentage points higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation is lower at 54.1% compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Employment is concentrated in construction, health care & social assistance, and education & training. Construction employment levels are 1.9 times the regional average.

Conversely, professional & technical services show lower representation at 3.6%, compared to the regional average of 10.1%. The area offers limited local employment opportunities, indicated by a lower count of Census working population versus resident population. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment increased by 1.8% while labour force grew by 0.4%, decreasing the unemployment rate by 1.2 percentage points. In Greater Melbourne, employment grew by 3.5%, labour force expanded by 4.0%, but unemployment rose by 0.5 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Yarra Junction's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.9% over five years and 12.4% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

AreaSearch's aggregation of latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2022 shows Yarra Junction had a median taxpayer income of $42,825 and an average income of $51,637. Nationally, the median was $54,892 and the average was $73,761 in Greater Melbourne. By September 2025, estimates suggest the median will be approximately $48,033 and the average $57,916, based on a 12.16% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2022. The 2021 Census revealed household, family, and personal incomes in Yarra Junction fell between the 13th and 20th percentiles nationally. Income analysis indicates 30.4% of the population (914 individuals) had incomes ranging from $1,500 to $2,999, similar to the region where 32.8% fall within this bracket. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 82.0% of income remaining, ranking at the 19th percentile.

Yarra Junction is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Yarra Junction's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 79.9% houses and 20.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Melbourne metro had 93.8% houses and 6.3% other dwellings. Home ownership in Yarra Junction stood at 38.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 42.7% and rented ones at 18.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,800, lower than Melbourne metro's $1,950. Median weekly rent in Yarra Junction was $300, compared to Melbourne metro's $380. Nationally, Yarra Junction's mortgage repayments were below the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially lower than the national figure of $375.

Yarra Junction features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 67.1% of all households, including 29.5% couples with children, 25.0% couples without children, and 12.1% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 32.9%, with lone person households at 30.7% and group households making up 2.2% of the total. The median household size is 2.5 people, smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.7.

Educational attainment in Yarra Junction aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 14.7%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 10.0%, followed by graduate diplomas (2.4%) and postgraduate qualifications (2.3%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 44.2% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 11.3% and certificates at 32.9%. Educational participation is high, with 28.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education: 12.0% in primary, 8.5% in secondary, and 2.4% in tertiary education.

Six schools operate within Yarra Junction, educating approximately 1,254 students, with typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1010) offering balanced educational opportunities. The educational mix includes two primary, two secondary, and two K-12 schools. The area functions as an education hub with 41.7 school places per 100 residents, significantly above the regional average of 15.5, attracting students from surrounding communities. Note: where schools show 'n/a' for enrolments, please refer to the parent campus.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Yarra Junction has 16 operational public transport stops. These are served by buses only. There is one route operating, offering a total of 241 weekly passenger trips.

The accessibility of these services is rated good, with residents on average being 316 meters away from the nearest stop. On average, there are 34 trips daily across all routes, which translates to about 15 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Yarra Junction is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data shows significant health challenges in Yarra Junction, with common conditions prevalent across both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is low, at approximately 47% of the total population (~1,423 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 52.4%. Nationally, the average is 55.3%.

Mental health issues and arthritis are the most common conditions, affecting 9.9% and 9.4% of residents respectively. 63.6% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 66.9% in Greater Melbourne. The area has a higher proportion of seniors, with 24.6% aged 65 and over (739 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 19.4%. Health outcomes among seniors present challenges broadly aligned with the general population's health profile.

Yarra Junction is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Yarra Junction, as per the 2016 Census data, had a cultural diversity index of below average. Its population was predominantly Australian-born citizens with English spoken exclusively at home: 88.2%, 86.6%, and 96.8% respectively. Christianity was the dominant religion in Yarra Junction, accounting for 39.0%.

Judaism, however, had no representation (0.0%) compared to Greater Melbourne's 0.1%. In terms of ancestry, Australians led at 33.8%, followed by English at 33.1% and Irish at 8.6%. Notably, Dutch ancestry was slightly overrepresented at 2.6% versus the regional average of 3.2%. Sri Lankan ancestry also had a higher representation in Yarra Junction at 0.4% compared to 0.3% regionally. Conversely, German ancestry showed slight underrepresentation at 3.5%, compared to the regional average of 3.6%.

Yarra Junction hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

The median age in Yarra Junction is 43 years, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and exceeds the national average of 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 65-74 make up 12.0% of the population, while those aged 25-34 comprise only 10.0%. Between 2021 and now, the proportion of people aged 75 to 84 has increased from 7.5% to 9.0%, while the 45 to 54 age group has decreased from 12.9% to 11.1%, and those aged 5 to 14 have dropped from 13.2% to 11.9%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate that the 75 to 84 age cohort will increase by 101 people (37%), growing from 270 to 372. Notably, those aged 65 and above are expected to account for 98% of total population growth. Conversely, the 55 to 64 and 25 to 34 age groups are projected to experience population declines.