Yarra Junction

Population growth drivers in Yarra Junction are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on ABS population updates and AreaSearch's analysis for the broader area, as of Feb 2026, Yarra Junction's estimated population is around 3,019. This reflects a growth of 144 people (5.0%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,875. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of 3,001 residents following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 77 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 172 persons per square kilometer. Yarra Junction's growth exceeded both its SA3 area (4.0%) and SA4 region, marking it as a growth leader. Natural growth contributed approximately 65.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusting using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends anticipate lower quartile growth nationally, with Yarra Junction expected to increase by 135 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a total increase of 3.9% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Yarra Junction according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers in Yarra Junction shows an average of approximately 23 new dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling around 116 homes. As of FY-26, 12 approvals have been recorded. Between FY-21 and FY-25, there were roughly 0.3 new residents per year per dwelling constructed. This indicates that new construction is meeting or exceeding demand, providing buyers with more options and potentially enabling population growth.

The average value of new properties under construction is $509,000, suggesting a focus on the premium segment. In FY-26, there have been $12.5 million in commercial approvals registered, indicating moderate levels of commercial development. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Yarra Junction has 106.0% more development activity per person. This should offer buyers ample choice, although development activity has moderated recently.

New developments consist of approximately 91.0% detached dwellings and 9.0% attached dwellings, maintaining the area's low density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers. The location has around 182 people per dwelling approval, further indicating a low density market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Yarra Junction is projected to add approximately 117 residents by 2041. With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Yarra Junction has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 42ndth percentile nationally

No changes can significantly affect a region's performance like alterations to nearby infrastructure, substantial projects, or planning initiatives. AreaSearch has pinpointed 0 projects expected to impact this area. Notable projects include Additional VLocity Trains, Level Crossing Removal Project (Melbourne), Suburban Roads Upgrade, and Telstra InfraCo Intercity Fibre Network, with the following list highlighting those most pertinent.

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Employment drivers in Yarra Junction are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

Yarra Junction has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs. The construction sector is prominent, with an unemployment rate of 6.1% as of December 2025. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 1.8%.

In comparison to Greater Melbourne's unemployment rate of 4.8%, Yarra Junction's rate is higher by 1.3%. Workforce participation in Yarra Junction lags behind Greater Melbourne, with rates of 57.8% and 71.3% respectively. According to Census responses, 19.2% of residents work from home. Employment concentration in construction is notable, at 1.9 times the regional average.

Conversely, professional & technical employment shows lower representation at 3.6%, compared to the regional average of 10.1%. The area offers limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Over a 12-month period ending in December 2025, employment increased by 1.8% while labour force increased by 1.4%, causing unemployment to fall by 0.4 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment growth of 2.4%, labour force expansion of 2.8%, and a rise in unemployment of 0.3 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia (May-25) project national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Yarra Junction's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.9% over five years and 12.4% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes only and do not account for localized population projections.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

AreaSearch's aggregation of latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2023 indicates Yarra Junction had a median income among taxpayers of $42,825 and an average level of $51,637. These figures are lower than the national averages of $57,688 and $75,164 in Greater Melbourne respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, estimated median income for Yarra Junction as of September 2025 is approximately $46,358 and average income is $55,897. According to the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in Yarra Junction fall between the 13th and 20th percentiles nationally. Income analysis shows 30.4% of Yarra Junction's population (917 individuals) have incomes within the $1,500 - $2,999 range, similar to the regional average of 32.8%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Yarra Junction, with only 82.0% of income remaining, ranking at the 19th percentile nationally.

Yarra Junction is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Yarra Junction's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 79.9% houses and 20.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Yarra Junction stood at 38.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 42.7% and rented ones at 18.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,800, lower than Melbourne metro's $2,000. Median weekly rent in Yarra Junction was $300, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Yarra Junction's mortgage repayments were below the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially lower at $375.

Yarra Junction features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 67.1% of all households, including 29.5% couples with children, 25.0% couples without children, and 12.1% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 32.9%, with lone person households at 30.7% and group households comprising 2.2% of the total. The median household size is 2.5 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Educational attainment in Yarra Junction aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 14.7%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 10.0%, followed by graduate diplomas (2.4%) and postgraduate qualifications (2.3%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 44.2% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.3%) and certificates (32.9%). Educational participation is high, with 28.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 12.0% in primary education, 8.5% in secondary education, and 2.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Yarra Junction has 16 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by one route in total, offering 148 weekly passenger trips combined. The area's transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents located an average of 317 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to its residential nature, and cars remain the primary mode of transport at 94%. On average, there are 1.6 vehicles per dwelling, exceeding the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, 19.2% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

The service frequency averages 21 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately nine weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Yarra Junction is lower than average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Yarra Junction faces significant health challenges based on AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence were notable across both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover was very low at approximately 47% of the total population (~1,429 people), compared to 56.7% in Greater Melbourne and the national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions were mental health issues (9.9%) and arthritis (9.4%), while 63.6% declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents showed above average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area had 25.7% of residents aged 65 and over (775 people), higher than the 15.1% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors presented some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Yarra Junction is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Yarra Junction, surveyed in 2016, had a cultural diversity score below average. Its population was predominantly Australian-born citizens: 88.2% were citizens, 86.6% born in Australia, and 96.8% spoke English at home exclusively. Christianity was the major religion, accounting for 39.0%.

Judaism was underrepresented, with 0.0% compared to Greater Melbourne's 1.0%. Ancestry-wise, Australian (33.8%), English (33.1%), and Irish (8.6%) were the top groups, all exceeding regional averages. Notable ethnic group divergences included Dutch at 2.6% (vs 1.2%), Sri Lankan at 0.4% (vs 0.8%), and German at 3.5% (vs 2.2%).

Yarra Junction hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

The median age in Yarra Junction is 43 years, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and exceeds the national average of 38 years. The age profile shows that individuals aged 75-84 years old make up 9.7% of the population, a figure notably higher than in Greater Melbourne. Conversely, the proportion of people aged 25-34 is smaller at 9.8%. Between 2021 and present, the percentage of those aged 75 to 84 has increased from 7.5% to 9.7%, while the 35 to 44 age group has grown from 11.5% to 12.6%. During this period, the proportion of individuals aged 45 to 54 has decreased from 12.9% to 10.8%, and those aged 5 to 14 have dropped from 13.2% to 11.9%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Yarra Junction's age structure. The number of individuals aged 85 and above is projected to rise substantially, increasing by 103 people (92%) from 111 to 215. Notably, the combined age groups of 65 and above are expected to account for 93% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. Conversely, the projections indicate that the age cohorts of 55-64 and 35-44 are expected to experience population declines.