Warburton (Vic.)

Warburton has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch since the Census, Warburton's population is estimated at around 2,055 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 35 people (1.7%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,020 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 2,040, estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 11 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 15.5 persons per square kilometer. Warburton's 1.7% growth since census positions it within 2.2 percentage points of the SA3 area (3.9%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by natural growth that contributed approximately 65.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering the projected demographic shifts, lower quartile growth of national areas is anticipated, with the Warburton (Vic.) statistical area (Lv2) expected to increase by 90 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 3.8% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Warburton, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Warburton recorded around 8 residential properties granted approval per year over the past 5 financial years, totalling an estimated 41 homes. So far in FY26, 1 approval has been recorded. Over these 5 years, an average of 0.7 new residents per year per dwelling constructed was observed. This indicates that new supply is keeping pace with or exceeding demand, providing ample buyer choice and creating capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts.

The average construction value of new homes is $509,000, suggesting developers focus on the premium market with high-end developments. In FY26, $626,000 in commercial approvals have been registered, indicating a predominantly residential focus. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Warburton shows comparable construction activity per person, supporting market stability inline with regional patterns, although recent activity has eased.

Recent development has consisted entirely of standalone homes, maintaining the area's traditional low density character focused on family homes appealing to those seeking space. The estimated count of 680 people in the area per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low activity development environment. Looking ahead, Warburton is expected to grow by 77 residents through to 2041, based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Given current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Warburton has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 41stth percentile nationally

No changes can significantly impact a region's performance like alterations to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. Zero projects have been identified by AreaSearch as potentially affecting this area. Notable projects include Yarra Valley Railway Heritage Line Restoration, Additional VLocity Trains, Level Crossing Removal Project (Melbourne), and Goosnargh Housing Development, with the following list highlighting those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment drivers in Warburton are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

Warburton has a skilled workforce with significant representation from essential services sectors. The unemployment rate in the area was 7.5% as of September 2025, with an estimated employment growth of 1.9% over the past year.

This is based on AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. As of September 2025958 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 2.9% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%. Workforce participation lagged significantly at 48.8%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. The key industries of employment among residents were health care & social assistance, education & training, and construction.

Education & training had a particularly high representation, with an employment share 1.4 times the regional level. Conversely, finance & insurance showed lower representation at 1.8% versus the regional average of 4.9%. The area appeared to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Over the 12 months to September 2025, employment in Warburton increased by 1.9%, while labour force increased by 0.2%, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 1.6 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne saw employment grow by 3.0%, labour force expand by 3.3%, and unemployment rise by 0.3 percentage points. Providing broader context, state-level data from 25-Nov showed that Victoria's employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, adding 41,950 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%. This compared to the national unemployment rate of 4.3%, with the state's employment growth outpacing the national average of 0.14%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 offered further insight into potential future demand within Warburton. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, were mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment was forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differed significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Warburton's employment mix suggested that local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. However, it was noted that this.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released on June 30, 2023, Warburton had a median income among taxpayers of $41,847 and an average income of $50,458. These figures are below the national averages of $57,688 and $75,164 respectively in Greater Melbourne. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since June 30, 2023, current estimates for Warburton would be approximately $45,299 (median) and $54,621 (average) as of September 2025. According to Census 2021 income data, household, family, and personal incomes in Warburton all fall between the 9th and 11th percentiles nationally. The income bracket of $1,500 - 2,999 dominates with 27.9% of residents (573 people), reflecting patterns seen in the surrounding region where 32.8% similarly occupy this range. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Warburton, with only 83.8% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 11th percentile nationally.

Warburton is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Warburton's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 94.6% houses and 5.4% other dwellings. In comparison, Melbourne metro had 93.8% houses and 6.3% other dwellings. Home ownership in Warburton stood at 40.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 41.1% and rented ones at 18.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,400, below Melbourne metro's average of $1,950. The median weekly rent in Warburton was $290, compared to Melbourne metro's $380. Nationally, Warburton's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Warburton features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 59.9% of all households, including 18.4% that are couples with children, 26.0% that are couples without children, and 13.1% that are single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 40.1%, with lone person households at 38.0% and group households comprising 2.8%. The median household size is 2.1 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.7.

The educational profile of Warburton exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Warburton Trail has educational qualifications that trail regional benchmarks, with 27.1% of residents aged 15 and above holding university degrees compared to Greater Melbourne's 37.0%. This gap indicates potential for educational development and skills enhancement. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 15.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.1%) and graduate diplomas (4.7%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 39.4% of residents aged 15 and above holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (14.7%) and certificates (24.7%).

Educational participation is high, with 31.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 11.6% in primary education, 11.2% in secondary education, and 3.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 12 active stops in Warburton, served by buses. There's one route operating, offering 156 weekly passenger trips. Accessibility is moderate, with residents typically 509 meters from the nearest stop.

Average daily service frequency is 22 trips across all routes, equating to about 13 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Warburton is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Warburton faces significant health challenges with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is very low at approximately 47% of the total population (~963 people), compared to 53.1% across Greater Melbourne, and the national average of 55.7%. The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 11.4 and 11.2% of residents respectively, while 63.4% declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 66.9% across Greater Melbourne.

The area has 26.2% of residents aged 65 and over (538 people), which is higher than the 19.4% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, performing better than the general population in health metrics.

Warburton ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Warburton's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 82.4% of its population being citizens, 78.5% born in Australia, and 93.9% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the main religion in Warburton, comprising 31.7% of people. However, there was an overrepresentation in Other religions, which made up 1.1% compared to Greater Melbourne's 0.7%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were English (33.8%), Australian (25.1%), and Irish (9.7%). There were notable divergences in other ethnic groups: Dutch was overrepresented at 2.9% versus 3.2% regionally, Polish at 1.3% versus 0.7%, and Hungarian at 0.5% versus 0.3%.

Warburton ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Warburton's median age is 50 years, significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's 37 and the national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Warburton has a higher percentage of residents aged 55-64 (17.6%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (5.2%). This concentration of 55-64 year-olds is well above the national average of 11.2%. Between the 2021 Census and the present, the percentage of Warburton's population aged 75 to 84 has grown from 7.1% to 8.6%, while the 35 to 44 age group increased from 9.7% to 10.9%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 age group declined from 18.0% to 16.0%, and the 5 to 14 age group decreased from 11.5% to 10.0%. By 2041, Warburton's population is expected to see notable shifts in its age composition. Leading this shift, the 75 to 84 age group is projected to grow by 39%, reaching 246 people from 176. This demographic aging continues as residents aged 65 and older represent 96% of anticipated population growth. Conversely, both the 25 to 34 and 5 to 14 age groups are expected to decrease in number.