Warburton (Vic.)

Warburton has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

Based on analysis of ABS population updates and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, as of Nov 2025 the estimated population of the suburb of Warburton (Vic.) is around 2,050. This reflects an increase of 30 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,020. The change is inferred from the resident population of 2,041 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS (June 2024) and an additional 11 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 15.5 persons per square kilometer. The suburb's 1.5% growth since census positions it within 1.8 percentage points of the SA3 area (3.3%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by natural growth, contributing approximately 65.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering the projected demographic shifts, lower quartile growth of national areas is anticipated. The suburb is expected to increase by 88 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 3.9% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Warburton, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval data shows Warburton had approximately 7 residential properties approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling around 39 homes. As of FY-26, 1 approval has been recorded. On average, 0.7 new residents per year have been attributed to each dwelling constructed between FY-21 and FY-25. This indicates that new supply is meeting or exceeding demand, providing ample buyer choice and capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts.

The average construction value of these homes was $509,000. In the current financial year, $7.1 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, reflecting Warburton's primarily residential nature. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Warburton has similar development levels per capita, suggesting market stability in line with regional trends.

All new construction in the area has been standalone homes, maintaining its traditional low-density character and appealing to those seeking space for families. The estimated population of 1020 people per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low-activity development environment. Future projections estimate Warburton will add 80 residents by 2041, with current construction levels expected to meet demand and potentially enable growth beyond current forecasts.

Warburton has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

No infrastructure projects have been identified by AreaSearch that will impact the area. Key projects include the Yarra Valley Railway Heritage Line Restoration, Additional VLocity Trains, Level Crossing Removal Project (Melbourne), and Goosnargh Housing Development.

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AreaSearch assessment indicates Warburton faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

Warburton has a skilled workforce with notable representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 7.3% as of the past year.

Employment growth during this period was estimated at 1.8%. As of June 2025964 residents were employed while the unemployment rate stood at 7.3%, which is 2.7% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation in Warburton was 48.8%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Employment among residents was concentrated in health care & social assistance, education & training, and construction.

Notably, education & training had employment levels at 1.4 times the regional average, while finance & insurance showed lower representation at 1.8% versus the regional average of 4.9%. The area appeared to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of Census working population compared to resident population. Over a 12-month period ending in Sep-22, employment increased by 1.8%, while labour force remained stable at 0.0%, leading to a fall in unemployment rate by 1.6 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment grow by 3.5% and labour force expand by 4.0%, with an increase of 0.5 percentage points in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 projected national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates varied significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Warburton's employment mix suggested local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, though this was a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes only and did not account for localised population projections.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year ended 30 June 2022, Warburton had a median income among taxpayers of $41,847 with the average level standing at $50,458. This is lower than national averages and compares to levels of $54,892 and $73,761 across Greater Melbourne respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year ended 30 June 2022, current estimates would be approximately $46,936 (median) and $56,594 (average) as of September 2025. From the Australian Bureau of Statistics Census data released on 28 June 2021, household incomes in Warburton fall between the 9th and 11th percentiles nationally. Income analysis reveals that 27.9% of the population (571 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income range, mirroring the region where 32.8% occupy this bracket. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Warburton, with only 83.8% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 11th percentile nationally.

Warburton is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Warburton's dwellings, as per the latest Census, consisted of 94.6% houses and 5.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Melbourne metro's 93.8% houses and 6.3% other dwellings. Home ownership in Warburton stood at 40.5%, with the rest being mortgaged (41.1%) or rented (18.3%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,400, lower than Melbourne metro's average of $1,950. Median weekly rent in Warburton was $290, compared to Melbourne metro's $380. Nationally, Warburton's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Warburton features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 59.9% of all households, including 18.4% couples with children, 26.0% couples without children, and 13.1% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 40.1%, with lone person households at 38.0% and group households comprising 2.8%. The median household size is 2.1 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.7.

The educational profile of Warburton exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Educational qualifications in Warburton trail regional benchmarks, with 27.1% of residents aged 15+ holding university degrees compared to 37.0% in Greater Melbourne. Bachelor degrees lead at 15.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.1%) and graduate diplomas (4.7%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 39.4% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (14.7%) and certificates (24.7%). Educational participation is high, with 31.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 11.6% in primary, 11.2% in secondary, and 3.0% in tertiary education.

Warburton Primary School serves the local area, with an enrollment of 68 students as of the latest data. The school operates under typical Australian conditions (ICSEA: 999) and offers balanced educational opportunities, focusing exclusively on primary education. Secondary options are available in nearby areas. Local school capacity is limited, with 3.3 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 15.5, indicating that many families travel for schooling.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Warburton has 12 active public transport stops operating. All of these are bus stops. There is one route serving these stops collectively providing 254 weekly passenger trips.

Transport accessibility in Warburton is moderate with residents typically located 509 meters from the nearest stop. Service frequency averages 36 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 21 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Warburton is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Warburton faces significant health challenges with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. Approximately 47% of the total population (~961 people) have private health cover, compared to 52.4% in Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.3%. The most common medical conditions are arthritis (11.4%) and mental health issues (11.2%).

About 63.4% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 66.9% across Greater Melbourne. Warburton has a higher percentage of residents aged 65 and over at 26.2% (537 people) than Greater Melbourne's 19.4%. Health outcomes among seniors in Warburton are above average, performing better than the general population in health metrics.

Warburton ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Warburton's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 82.4% of its population being Australian citizens, born in Australia (78.5%), and speaking English only at home (93.9%). Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 31.7% of Warburton's population. Notably, the 'Other' category was overrepresented in Warburton at 1.1%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 0.7%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were English (33.8%), Australian (25.1%), and Irish (9.7%). However, there were notable divergences in the representation of certain ethnic groups: Dutch was overrepresented at 2.9% compared to the regional average of 3.2%, Polish at 1.3% versus 0.7%, and Hungarian at 0.5% against 0.3%.

Warburton ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Warburton's median age is 50 years, significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's 37 years and the national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Warburton has a higher percentage of residents aged 55-64 (17.6%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (5.2%). This 55-64 concentration is well above the national figure of 11.2%. Between the 2021 Census and the present, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 7.1% to 8.6%, while the 35 to 44 cohort increased from 9.7% to 10.9%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 18.0% to 16.0%, and the 5 to 14 group dropped from 11.5% to 10.0%. By 2041, Warburton's age composition is expected to shift notably. The 75 to 84 group is projected to grow by 39% (68 people), reaching 245 from 176. This demographic aging trend continues as residents aged 65 and older represent 95% of the anticipated growth. Conversely, both the 25 to 34 and 5 to 14 age groups are expected to decrease in number.