Chirnside Park

Chirnside Park lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Chirnside Park's population is around 12,548 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 769 people (6.5%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 11,779 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 12,506 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 72 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 565 persons per square kilometer, providing significant space per person and potential room for further development. Chirnside Park's 6.5% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area (4.0%) and the SA4 region, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by natural growth, which contributed approximately 39.9% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers, including overseas migration and interstate migration, were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Regarding demographic trends, an above-median population growth of statistical areas analysed by AreaSearch is projected, with the area expected to grow by 2,629 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 20.6% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Chirnside Park among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Chirnside Park has recorded around 104 residential properties granted approval per year, totalling 524 homes over the past 5 financial years. So far in FY-26, 9 approvals have been recorded. With an average of 2 people per year moving to the area for each dwelling built over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), supply and demand appear well-balanced, creating stable market conditions, though recent data shows this has moderated to 1.1 people per dwelling over the past 2 financial years, suggesting improved supply-demand balance. New properties are constructed at an average value of $385,000. Also, $60.9 million in commercial approvals have been registered this financial year, demonstrating high levels of local commercial activity.

Compared to Greater Melbourne, Chirnside Park records 119.0% more new home approvals (per person), offering buyers greater choice. New building activity shows 17.0% standalone homes and 83.0% townhouses or apartments. This focus on higher-density living creates more affordable entry points and suits downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This shows a considerable change from the current housing mix (currently 98.0% houses), reflecting reduced availability of development sites and addressing shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. The estimated count of 381 people in the area per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low activity development environment.

Looking ahead, Chirnside Park is expected to grow by 2,587 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Chirnside Park has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 47thth percentile nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total, 22 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include the Chirnside Park Structure Plan, Chirnside Park Shopping Centre Refresh, Brushy Creek Recycled Water Project, and the Proposed Cave Hill Railway Station, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis places Chirnside Park well above average for employment performance across multiple indicators

Chirnside Park possesses a skilled workforce, with the construction sector a particular standout in terms of representation, an unemployment rate of only 3.1%, and 1.6% in estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 6,871 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 1.7% below Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%, and workforce participation is broadly similar to Greater Melbourne's 71.3%. Based on Census responses, a high 26.0% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

The key industries of employment among residents are construction, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. The area demonstrates a particularly notable concentration in construction, with employment levels at 1.5 times the regional average. Conversely, professional & technical services show lower representation at 7.2% versus the regional average of 10.1%. The area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of the Census working population versus the resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, during the year to December 2025, employment levels increased by 1.6% and the labour force increased by 1.6%, with unemployment remaining essentially unchanged. By comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 2.4%, labour force growth of 2.8%, and unemployment rising 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Chirnside Park. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Chirnside Park's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.3% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for FY-23, the Chirnside Park SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $58,321 with the average level standing at $70,725. This is higher than average nationally and compares to levels of $57,688 and $75,164 across Greater Melbourne respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $63,132 (median) and $76,560 (average) as of September 2025. According to 2021 Census figures, household, family and personal incomes in Chirnside Park cluster around the 65th percentile nationally. Distribution data shows 34.6% of the population (4,341 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income range, reflecting patterns seen at regional levels where 32.8% similarly occupy this range. Housing accounts for 14.7% of income while strong earnings rank residents within the 73rd percentile for disposable income and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Chirnside Park is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within Chirnside Park, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 98.0% houses and 2.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Chirnside Park was well beyond that of Melbourne metro, at 37.0%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (47.9%) or rented (15.1%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was above the Melbourne metro average at $2,167, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $443, compared to Melbourne metro's $2,000 and $390. Nationally, Chirnside Park's mortgage repayments are significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially above the national figure of $375.

Chirnside Park features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 80.7% of all households, comprising 40.7% couples with children, 28.1% couples without children, and 11.2% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 19.3%, with lone person households at 17.5% and group households comprising 1.7% of the total. The median household size of 2.8 people is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

The educational profile of Chirnside Park exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (25.0%) substantially below the Greater Melbourne average of 37.0%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 17.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.8%) and graduate diplomas (3.1%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 37.4% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (12.5%) and certificates (24.9%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 28.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.6% in primary education, 7.6% in secondary education, and 4.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 39 active transport stops operating within Chirnside Park, comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 22 individual routes, collectively providing 4,352 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as moderate, with residents typically located 469 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 93%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.8 per dwelling, which is above the regional average. A high 26.0% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 621 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 111 weekly trips per individual stop.

Chirnside Park's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Health outcomes data demonstrates outstanding results across Chirnside Park, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Younger cohorts in particular see very low prevalence of common health conditions, and the rate of private health cover is fairly high at approximately 54% of the total population (~6,788 people), compared to 56.7% across Greater Melbourne.

The most common medical conditions in the area are asthma and mental health issues, impacting 8.1% and 8.0% of residents, respectively, while 69.6% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. The under-65 population demonstrates better than average health outcomes. The area has 18.8% of residents aged 65 and over (2,354 people), which is higher than the 15.1% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, though ranking lower nationally than the broader population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Chirnside Park was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Chirnside Park was found to be above average in terms of cultural diversity, with 22.2% of its population born overseas and 14.4% speaking a language other than English at home. The main religion in Chirnside Park is Christianity, which makes up 47.4% of the population. However, the most apparent overrepresentation was in Other, which comprises 1.0% of the population, compared to 2.3% across Greater Melbourne.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Chirnside Park are English, comprising 29.1% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 20.1%, Australian, comprising 26.6% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 18.4%, and Irish, comprising 7.1% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Dutch is notably overrepresented at 2.6% of Chirnside Park (vs 1.2% regionally), Italian at 5.3% (vs 5.2%) and Sri Lankan at 0.4% (vs 0.8%).

Chirnside Park's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

The 38-year median age in Chirnside Park is close to Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and equivalent to the Australian median of 38. Relative to Greater Melbourne, Chirnside Park has a higher concentration of 75 - 84 residents (7.3%) but fewer 25 - 34 year-olds (9.8%). Since the 2021 Census, the 15 to 24 age group has grown from 12.0% to 13.5% of the population, while the 35 to 44 cohort increased from 13.8% to 15.3%. Conversely, the 25 to 34 cohort has declined from 13.0% to 9.8%. By 2041, Chirnside Park is expected to see notable shifts in its age composition. Leading the demographic shift, the 45 to 54 group will grow by 43% (671 people), reaching 2,226 from 1,554. The 0 to 4 group displays more modest growth at 3%, adding only 21 residents.