Chirnside Park
Statistical Area - sa2

Chirnside Park lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Chirnside Park's population is around 12,567 as of Aug 2025. This reflects an increase from 11,779 people in the 2021 Census, a growth of 788 people (6.7%). The change is inferred from ABS estimated resident population of 12,506 in June 2024 and additional 67 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 566 persons per square kilometer. Chirnside Park's growth exceeded the SA3 area (3.3%) and SA4 region, making it a growth leader. Natural growth contributed approximately 39.9% to overall population gains recently, with all migration drivers also positive factors.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered, VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 are used with adjustments via weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Demographic trends project an above median population growth, with the area expected to grow by 2,629 persons to 2041 based on latest numbers, a total increase of 20.4% over 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Chirnside Park was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Chirnside Park has recorded approximately 104 residential properties granted approval annually. Development approval data is produced by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on a financial year basis, totalling 524 approvals across the past five financial years from FY-21 to FY-25, with four already approved in FY-26. On average, about two people have moved to the area per dwelling built over the past five financial years, indicating balanced supply and demand conditions. However, this figure has moderated to 1.1 people per dwelling over the past two financial years, suggesting improved balance. New properties are constructed at an average expected cost of $446,000, aligning with regional trends.

Additionally, $60.9 million in commercial approvals have been registered this financial year, indicating strong local business investment. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Chirnside Park records 119.0% more new home approvals per person, providing buyers with greater choice. Current development activity shows 17.0% standalone homes and 83.0% townhouses or apartments, reflecting a shift towards higher-density living to create more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This represents a significant change from the current housing mix of 98.0% houses, driven by reduced availability of development sites and shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. The estimated population per dwelling approval is 381 people, reflecting its quiet, low activity development environment. Looking ahead, Chirnside Park is projected to grow by 2,568 residents by 2041.

At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Chirnside Park has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 22 projects likely to impact the area. Notable projects include Chirnside Park Shopping Centre Refresh, Chirnside Park Structure Plan, Brushy Creek Recycled Water Project, and Proposed Cave Hill Railway Station. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

AreaSearch analysis places Chirnside Park well above average for employment performance across multiple indicators

Chirnside Park has a skilled workforce with the construction sector being prominent. Its unemployment rate was 2.6% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 1.3%.

As of June 2025, 6836 residents are employed, and the unemployment rate is 2.1% lower than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation is similar to Greater Melbourne at 66.8%. Key industries for employment are construction, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. Construction has a notable concentration with levels at 1.5 times the regional average, while professional & technical shows lower representation at 7.2% compared to the regional average of 10.1%.

Employment opportunities locally appear limited based on Census data comparison between working population and resident population. In the year to June 2025, employment levels increased by 1.3%, labour force by 0.7%, resulting in a unemployment fall of 0.6 percentage points. Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 3.5% during this period. State-level data from Sep-25 shows Victoria's employment grew by 1.08% year-on-year, adding 39,880 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%, compared to the national rate of 4.5%. National employment forecasts suggest growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but industry-specific projections vary significantly. Applying these projections to Chirnside Park's employment mix suggests local growth could be approximately 6.4% over five years and 13.3% over ten years.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch aggregated latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2022. Chirnside Park had a median taxpayer income of $54,426 and an average income of $67,718. Nationally, the averages were $54,892 and $73,761 respectively. By March 2025, estimates suggest median and average incomes could be approximately $59,928 and $74,564, accounting for a 10.11% Wage Price Index growth since FY2022. Census figures from 2021 indicate household, family, and personal incomes in Chirnside Park cluster around the 65th percentile nationally. Income distribution shows 34.6% (4,348 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 range. Housing accounts for 14.7% of income. Residents rank in the 73rd percentile for disposable income and the area's SEIFA income ranking is in the 7th decile.

Chirnside Park is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Chirnside Park's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 98.0% houses and 2.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), contrasting with Melbourne metro's 93.8% houses and 6.3% other dwellings. Home ownership in Chirnside Park aligned with Melbourne metro at 37.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 47.9% and rented ones at 15.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,167, above Melbourne's average of $1,950. Weekly rent median was $443, compared to Melbourne's $380. Nationally, Chirnside Park's repayments were higher at $2,167 versus the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Chirnside Park features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 80.7% of all households, including 40.7% couples with children, 28.1% couples without children, and 11.2% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 19.3%, with lone person households at 17.5% and group households comprising 1.7% of the total. The median household size is 2.8 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.7.

The educational profile of Chirnside Park exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area has university qualification rates of 25.0%, significantly lower than the Greater Melbourne average of 37.0%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 17.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.8%) and graduate diplomas (3.1%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 37.4% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas at 12.5% and certificates at 24.9%.

Educational participation is high, with 28.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.6% in primary education, 7.6% in secondary education, and 4.4% pursuing tertiary education. The area has educational provision including Chirnside Park Primary School and Oxley Christian College, serving a total of 1,227 students. Chirnside Park demonstrates above-average socio-educational conditions (ICSEA: 1070). The educational mix includes one primary school and one K-12 school. There are 9.8 school places per 100 residents, below the regional average of 15.5, indicating some students may attend schools in adjacent areas.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Chirnside Park has 39 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are serviced by 26 different routes that collectively facilitate 5000 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these transport services is rated as moderate, with residents typically located 469 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 714 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 128 weekly trips per individual stop.

Chirnside Park's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data shows positive health outcomes for Chirnside Park residents.

Prevalence of common health conditions is low across both younger and older age groups. Approximately 53% (~6,710 people) have private health cover, which is relatively high. The most common medical conditions are asthma and mental health issues, affecting 8.1 and 8.0% of residents respectively. 69.6% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 66.9% in Greater Melbourne. There are 2,290 people aged 65 and over (18.2%), lower than the 19.4% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, aligning with the general population's health profile.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Chirnside Park was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Chirnside Park had a cultural diversity level above average, with 22.2% of its population born overseas and 14.4% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Chirnside Park, accounting for 47.4% of the population. The most notable overrepresentation was in the 'Other' religious category, comprising 1.0% compared to Greater Melbourne's 0.7%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were English (29.1%), Australian (26.6%), and Irish (7.1%). There were also significant differences in the representation of certain ethnic groups: Dutch was overrepresented at 2.6% (compared to Greater Melbourne's 3.2%), Italian at 5.3% (vs 3.4%), and Sri Lankan at 0.4% (vs 0.3%).

Chirnside Park's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

The median age in Chirnside Park is 38 years, close to Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and equivalent to Australia's median of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Chirnside Park has a higher percentage of residents aged 75-84 (6.9%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (10.4%). Between the 2021 Census and now, the age group 35-44 has grown from 13.8% to 15.2%, while the 15-24 cohort increased from 12.0% to 13.4%. Conversely, the 25-34 cohort has declined from 13.0% to 10.4%. By 2041, Chirnside Park's age composition is expected to change significantly. Notably, the 45-54 group is projected to grow by 44%, reaching 2,226 people from 1,543. Meanwhile, the 0-4 age group is expected to decrease by 23 residents.