Lilydale (Vic.)

Population growth drivers in Lilydale are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

As of Nov 2025, the Lilydale (Vic.) statistical area (Lv2) had an estimated population of around 18,556. This figure reflects a growth of 1,208 people since the 2021 Census, indicating a 7.0% increase from the previously reported population of 17,348. The estimation is based on AreaSearch's validation of new addresses and examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS (June 2024), which showed a resident population of 18,297. This growth rate exceeds that of the SA3 area (3.9%) and the SA4 region, positioning Lilydale as a growth leader in the region. Natural growth contributed approximately 53.0% of overall population gains during recent periods in the Lilydale (Vic.) (SA2). AreaSearch's projections for the area are based on ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024, with 2022 as the base year.

For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted using a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Looking ahead, an above median population growth is projected for the Lilydale (Vic.) (SA2), with expectations of an increase by 3,535 persons to 2041. This reflects a total increase of 17.1% over the 17-year period based on aggregated SA2-level projections.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Lilydale among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, indicates Lilydale has recorded approximately 163 residential properties granted approval annually over the past five financial years. This totals an estimated 815 homes. As of FY-26, 71 approvals have been recorded. The average new residents per year per dwelling constructed between FY-21 and FY-25 is 0.7, suggesting supply meets or exceeds demand, providing greater buyer choice while supporting potential population growth above projections.

New properties are constructed at an average value of $445,000, slightly above the regional average, indicating a focus on quality developments. In this financial year, $57.6 million in commercial approvals have been registered, suggesting robust local business investment. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Lilydale has 135.0% more construction activity per person. New building activity shows 57.0% standalone homes and 43.0% medium and high-density housing, with a growing mix of townhouses and apartments providing options across different price points. This reflects reduced availability of development sites and addresses shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements, marking a considerable change from the current housing mix, which is currently 80.0% houses.

With around 103 people per dwelling approval, Lilydale shows characteristics of a growth area. Future projections show Lilydale adding 3,173 residents by 2041, based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Current construction levels suggest housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Lilydale has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 21 projects that could affect this region. Notable ones are Lilydale Structure Plan Implementation, Chapel Street Lilydale Drainage Improvements, Kinley Estate (Former Lilydale Quarry), and Summerset Chirnside Park Retirement Village. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis indicates Lilydale maintains employment conditions that align with national benchmarks

Lilydale has a skilled workforce with notable representation in the construction sector. The unemployment rate was 3.8% in the past year.

Employment growth over this period was estimated at 1.5%. As of September 2025, 9,853 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 0.9% lower than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%. Workforce participation was similar to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Dominant employment sectors included construction, health care & social assistance, and retail trade.

Construction had a particularly high share of employment at 1.6 times the regional level. Professional & technical services employed only 6.5% of local workers, lower than Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. Employment opportunities locally appeared limited based on Census data comparison. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 1.5%, and the labour force grew by 1.0%, causing a 0.5 percentage point decrease in unemployment rate. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment rise by 3.0% and unemployment increase by 0.3 percentage points. State-level data up to November 25 showed Victorian employment growth of 1.13% year-on-year, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%. National forecasts from May-25 suggest national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.2% over ten years. Applying these projections to Lilydale's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.2% over ten years.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

The suburb of Lilydale has a median taxpayer income of $53,102 and an average income of $67,125 based on the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year 2023. These figures align with national averages, differing from Greater Melbourne's median income of $57,688 and average income of $75,164. Using Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes for September 2025 are approximately $57,483 (median) and $72,663 (average). Census 2021 data shows income levels in Lilydale around the 50th percentile nationally. Income analysis reveals that 33.5% of locals (6,216 people) fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 category, similar to the regional average of 32.8%. Housing costs consume 15.9% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 52nd percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Lilydale is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Lilydale's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 79.9% houses and 20.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Melbourne metro had 93.8% houses and 6.3% other dwellings. Home ownership in Lilydale was 34.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 46.2% and rented ones at 19.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,950, aligning with Melbourne metro's average. Median weekly rent was $369, compared to Melbourne metro's $380. Nationally, Lilydale's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were lower than the national figure of $375.

Lilydale has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 73.0% of all households, including 33.3% couples with children, 27.7% couples without children, and 11.0% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 27.0%, with lone person households at 25.0% and group households comprising 2.1%. The median household size is 2.5 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.7 people.

Lilydale performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

The area's university qualification rate is 21.0%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 15.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.5%) and graduate diplomas (2.5%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 39.7% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (12.4%) and certificates (27.3%). Educational participation is high at 26.8%, comprising 8.7% in primary education, 8.0% in secondary education, and 3.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 26.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.7% in primary education, 8.0% in secondary education, and 3.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Lilydale has 90 active public transport stops operating within its boundaries. These include a mix of train and bus services. There are 21 individual routes servicing these stops, collectively providing 5,584 weekly passenger trips.

Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 312 meters from the nearest transport stop. Service frequency averages 797 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 62 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Lilydale is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Lilydale faces significant health challenges with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts.

The rate of private health cover is approximately 53% of the total population (~9,903 people), slightly higher than the average SA2 area. Mental health issues impact 9.4% of residents, while arthritis affects 9.1%. About 65.4% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 66.9% across Greater Melbourne. The area has 19.9% of residents aged 65 and over (3,692 people). Health outcomes among seniors are above average, performing better than the general population in health metrics.

Lilydale ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Lilydale's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 82.2% of its population born in Australia, 90.8% being citizens, and 91.7% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Lilydale, comprising 47.1% of its population. Notably, Judaism is overrepresented in Lilydale compared to Greater Melbourne, with 0.1% versus 0.1%.

The top three ancestry groups in Lilydale are English (31.2%), Australian (28.0%), and Scottish (7.6%). Some ethnic groups show notable differences: Dutch at 3.1% in Lilydale compared to 3.2% regionally, Hungarian at 0.4% versus 0.3%, and Italian at 5.2% versus 3.4%.

Lilydale's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Lilydale has a median age of 40, which is slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and Australia's average of 38 years. Compared to the Greater Melbourne average, Lilydale has an over-representation of the 55-64 age cohort (12.6% locally) and an under-representation of the 25-34 age group (13.0%). Between 2021 and now, the 75 to 84 age group has increased from 6.2% to 7.4% of Lilydale's population, while the 45 to 54 cohort has decreased from 13.9% to 12.9%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests significant changes in Lilydale's age profile. The 75 to 84 age cohort is projected to grow by 722 people (53%), from 1,373 to 2,096. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 53% of total population growth, reflecting Lilydale's aging demographic profile. The 0 to 4 age group is projected to grow by 1%, adding only 11 residents.