Lilydale (Vic.)

Population growth drivers in Lilydale are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch since the Census, Lilydale's population is estimated at around 18,918 as of May 2026. This reflects an increase of 1,570 people (9.1%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 17,348 people in the suburb of Lilydale (Vic.). The change is inferred from the resident population of 18,678, estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS on June 2025 and an additional 575 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 648 persons per square kilometer in Lilydale (Vic.). Population growth for the area was primarily driven by natural growth that contributed approximately 53.0% of overall population gains during recent periods. AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with a base year of 2022.

For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking at population projections moving forward, an above median population growth is projected in the suburb of Lilydale (Vic.), with the area expected to grow by 3,170 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a total increase of 15.5% over the 16 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Lilydale among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Lilydale has had approximately 163 dwelling approvals annually based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers. From financial years FY-21 to FY-25, around 816 homes were approved, with an additional 108 approved in FY-26 so far. The average new residents per year arriving for each new home over these five years is about 0.8.

This indicates that new supply is keeping pace with or exceeding demand, providing ample buyer choice and capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts. The average value of new dwellings being developed is approximately $445,000, slightly above the regional average, suggesting a focus on quality developments. Commercial approvals this financial year totalled $57.6 million, demonstrating high levels of local commercial activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Lilydale records 134.0% more development activity per person. This offers buyers greater choice in housing options.

The current new building activity shows 57.0% detached dwellings and 43.0% medium and high-density housing, with a growing mix of townhouses and apartments providing options across different price points. This represents a notable shift from the area's existing housing composition, which is currently 80.0% houses. The location has approximately 103 people per dwelling approval, indicating an expanding market. Future projections show Lilydale adding around 2,930 residents by 2041, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Lilydale has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 21 projects that could affect the region. Notable ones include Lilydale Structure Plan Implementation, Chapel Street Lilydale Drainage Improvements, Kinley Estate (Former Lilydale Quarry), and Summerset Chirnside Park Retirement Village. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The labour market in Lilydale demonstrates typical performance when compared to similar areas across Australia

Lilydale has a skilled workforce with the construction sector being notably prominent. Its unemployment rate was 4.0% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 1.8%. As of December 2025, 9,914 residents are employed, which is 0.7% below Greater Melbourne's unemployment rate of 4.8%.

The workforce participation rate is 66.0%, slightly lower than Greater Melbourne's 69.9%. According to Census responses, 24.8% of residents work from home. Leading employment industries include construction, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. Lilydale shows strong specialization in construction with an employment share 1.6 times the regional level, but professional & technical services are under-represented at 6.5%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 10.1%.

The area offers limited local employment opportunities, indicated by the working population versus resident population count. In the 12-month period ending December 2025, employment increased by 1.8% while labour force grew by 1.7%, with unemployment remaining essentially unchanged. This contrasts with Greater Melbourne where employment rose by 2.4%, labour force grew by 2.8%, and unemployment rose by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Lilydale's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.2% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localized population projections.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

As per AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released on 30 June 2023 for financial year 2023, the suburb of Lilydale's median income among taxpayers is $53,102. The average income in Lilydale is $67,125. These figures align with national averages. In comparison, Greater Melbourne has a median income of $57,688 and an average income of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Lilydale's median income would be approximately $58,210 as of March 2026, with the average estimated to be around $73,582 by that date. Census 2021 income data shows that household, family and personal incomes in Lilydale cluster around the 50th percentile nationally. The earnings profile indicates that the $1,500 - $2,999 earnings band captures 33.5% of the community (6,337 individuals), which aligns with regional levels where this cohort represents 32.8%. High housing costs consume 15.9% of income in Lilydale, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 52nd percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Lilydale is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Lilydale, as per the latest Census evaluation, consisted of 79.9% houses and 20.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Lilydale was at 34.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 46.2% and rented ones at 19.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,950, lower than Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. The median weekly rent figure in Lilydale was $369, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Lilydale's mortgage repayments were higher at $1,950 versus the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were lower at $369 compared to the national figure of $375.

Lilydale has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 73.0% of all households, including 33.3% couples with children, 27.7% couples without children, and 11.0% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 27.0%, with lone person households at 25.0% and group households comprising 2.1%. The median household size is 2.5 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Lilydale performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

The area's university qualification rate is 21.0%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 15.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.5%) and graduate diplomas (2.5%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 39.7% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (12.4%) and certificates (27.3%). Educational participation is high at 26.8%, comprising 8.7% in primary education, 8.0% in secondary education, and 3.8% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 26.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.7% in primary education, 8.0% in secondary education, and 3.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis indicates 89 active transport stops operating within Lilydale, consisting of a mix of bus services. These stops are served by 21 individual routes, collectively facilitating 5,584 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically situated 312 meters from the nearest transport stop. As predominantly residential, most residents commute outward. Car remains the dominant mode at 92%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.6 per dwelling, exceeding the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, some 24.8% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 797 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 62 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health outcomes in Lilydale are marginally below the national average with common health conditions slightly more prevalent than average across both younger and older age cohorts

Lilydale's health indicators show below-average outcomes, according to AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are slightly more prevalent than average across both younger and older age cohorts.

Private health cover stands at approximately 53% of the total population (~10,096 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 56.7%. Mental health issues and arthritis are the most common medical conditions, affecting 9.4 and 9.1% of residents respectively. 65.4% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents show an above-average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 20.3% of residents aged 65 and over (3,840 people), higher than Greater Melbourne's 15.0%. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, with national rankings even higher than the general population.

Lilydale ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Lilydale was found to have below average cultural diversity, with 82.2% of its population born in Australia, 90.8% being citizens, and 91.7% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the main religion in Lilydale, comprising 47.1% of people there. However, Judaism is overrepresented, making up 0.1% compared to 1.0% across Greater Melbourne.

The top three ancestry groups are English (31.2%, regional average: 20.1%), Australian (28.0%, regional average: 18.4%), and Scottish (7.6%). Notably, Dutch (3.1% vs regional 1.2%), Hungarian (0.4% vs regional 0.3%), and Italian (5.2% vs regional 5.2%) are also overrepresented.

Lilydale's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Lilydale has a median age of 40, which is slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and Australia's average of 38 years. Compared to the Greater Melbourne average, Lilydale has an over-representation of the 75-84 age cohort (7.7% locally), while the 25-34 year-olds are under-represented (12.7%). Between 2021 and present, the 75-84 age group has increased from 6.2% to 7.7% of Lilydale's population. Conversely, the 45-54 cohort has decreased from 13.9% to 12.6%. By 2041, demographic modeling projects significant changes in Lilydale's age profile. The 75-84 age cohort is expected to expand by 598 people (41%), growing from 1,456 to 2,055 residents. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 51% of total population growth, reflecting Lilydale's aging demographic trend. The 0-4 age group is projected to grow modestly at 4%, adding only 40 residents.