Lilydale (Vic.)

Population growth drivers in Lilydale are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

The population of Lilydale (Vic.) is estimated at 18,591 as of February 2026. This figure reflects a growth of 1,243 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 17,348. The increase was inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 18,297 in June 2024 and an additional 540 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 637 persons per square kilometer. Lilydale's growth rate of 7.2% since the 2021 census exceeded both the SA3 area (4.0%) and the SA4 region, indicating it as a growth leader. Natural growth contributed approximately 53.0% to overall population gains in recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. According to these projections, the suburb is expected to experience above median population growth nationally, with an increase of 3,521 persons to 2041, reflecting a total increase of 16.8% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Lilydale among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, Lilydale has recorded approximately 163 residential properties granted approval annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 815 homes. As of FY26, 71 approvals have been recorded. On average, 0.7 new residents per year per dwelling constructed were noted between FY21 and FY25, indicating that supply is meeting or surpassing demand. The average construction value for these properties was $445,000, slightly above the regional average.

In FY26, $57.6 million in commercial approvals have been registered, suggesting robust local business investment. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Lilydale has 135.0% more construction activity per person. Currently, new building activity comprises 57.0% standalone homes and 43.0% medium and high-density housing, with a growing mix of townhouses and apartments providing options across different price points. This shift reflects the reduced availability of development sites and addresses changing lifestyle demands and affordability requirements, differing from the current housing mix which is predominantly houses (80.0%). With around 103 people per dwelling approval, Lilydale exhibits characteristics of a growth area.

According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Lilydale is projected to add 3,129 residents by 2041. Given current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Lilydale has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 21 projects likely affecting the region. Notable initiatives include Lilydale Structure Plan Implementation, Chapel Street Lilydale Drainage Improvements, Kinley Estate (Former Lilydale Quarry), and Summerset Chirnside Park Retirement Village. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis indicates Lilydale maintains employment conditions that align with national benchmarks

Lilydale has a skilled workforce. The construction sector is notably represented. Its unemployment rate was 3.8% in the past year.

Employment growth was estimated at 1.6%. As of September 2025, 9,854 residents are employed with an unemployment rate of 0.9%, below Greater Melbourne's 4.7%. Workforce participation is lower than Greater Melbourne's at 66.7%. Home work is moderate at 24.8% based on Census responses.

Dominant sectors include construction, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. Construction employs 1.6 times the regional average. Professional & technical employment is lower at 6.5%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. Employment opportunities locally appear limited. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment increased by 1.6% while labour force grew by 1.1%, reducing unemployment by 0.5 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment rise by 3.0%, labour force grow by 3.3%, and unemployment increase by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Lilydale's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.2% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

Lilydale suburb's median taxpayer income was $53,102 and average was $67,125 based on latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. This aligns with national averages compared to Greater Melbourne's median of $57,688 and average of $75,164. As of September 2025, estimates suggest median income would be approximately $57,483 and average would be around $72,663, considering Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023. Census 2021 data indicates incomes in Lilydale cluster around the national 50th percentile. Income analysis shows that 33.5% of locals (6,227 people) fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 income bracket, similar to the regional figure of 32.8%. High housing costs consume 15.9% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the national 52nd percentile. Lilydale's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Lilydale is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Lilydale's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, were 79.9% houses and 20.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Lilydale was 34.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 46.2% and rented ones at 19.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,950, below Melbourne metro's $2,000. Median weekly rent was $369, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Lilydale's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Lilydale has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 73.0% of all households, including 33.3% couples with children, 27.7% couples without children, and 11.0% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 27.0%, with lone person households at 25.0% and group households comprising 2.1% of the total. The median household size is 2.5 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Lilydale performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

The area's university qualification rate is 21.0%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common at 15.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.5%) and graduate diplomas (2.5%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 39.7% of residents aged 15+ holding them – advanced diplomas account for 12.4% and certificates for 27.3%.

Educational participation is high, with 26.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.7% in primary education, 8.0% in secondary education, and 3.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Lilydale has 89 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 21 different routes that together facilitate 5,584 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of transport in Lilydale is rated as good, with residents typically located 312 meters from the nearest stop. As a predominantly residential area, most commuting is outward-bound, and cars remain the primary mode of transportation at 92%. On average, there are 1.6 vehicles per dwelling, which is higher than the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, 24.8% of residents work from home, a figure that may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

Across all routes, service frequency averages 797 trips per day, equating to approximately 62 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health outcomes in Lilydale are marginally below the national average with common health conditions slightly more prevalent than average across both younger and older age cohorts

Lilydale's health indicators show below-average outcomes according to AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions were found to be slightly more prevalent than average across both younger and older age cohorts.

Private health cover was reported by approximately 53% of Lilydale's total population (~9,922 people), compared to the Greater Melbourne average of 56.7%. Mental health issues impacted 9.4% of residents, while arthritis affected 9.1%, with 65.4% declaring themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents in Lilydale had an above-average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over (20.6%, or 3,829 people) than Greater Melbourne (15.1%). Health outcomes among seniors in Lilydale were above average, with national rankings even higher than the general population.

Lilydale ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Lilydale, as per the census conducted on 9 August 2016, had a population with 82.2% born in Australia, 90.8% being citizens, and 91.7% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 47.1% of Lilydale's population. Notably, Judaism was overrepresented, comprising 0.1%, compared to Greater Melbourne's average of 1.0%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were English (31.2%), Australian (28.0%), and Scottish (7.6%). These figures were significantly higher than their respective regional averages of 20.1%, 18.4%, and 5.2%. There were also notable differences in the representation of Dutch (3.1% vs regional 1.2%), Hungarian (0.4% vs regional 0.3%), and Italian (5.2% vs regional 5.2%) ancestry groups.

Lilydale's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Lilydale has a median age of 40, which is slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and Australia's median age of 38. Compared to the Greater Melbourne average, Lilydale has an over-representation of the 75-84 age group (7.8% locally) and an under-representation of the 25-34 age group (12.7%). Between 2021 and present, the 75 to 84 age group has increased from 6.2% to 7.8% of Lilydale's population. Conversely, the 45 to 54 age cohort has decreased from 13.9% to 12.7%. By 2041, demographic modeling projects significant changes in Lilydale's age profile. The 75 to 84 age cohort is expected to expand by 641 people (44%), growing from 1,450 to 2,092. Meanwhile, the 0 to 4 age group is projected to grow modestly by 5% (45 people).