Warranwood

Warranwood is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

As of November 2025, the estimated population of Warranwood is around 4948. This figure reflects an increase of 128 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 4820. The change is inferred from the resident population estimate of 4936 by AreaSearch following examination of ABS's latest ERP data release in June 2024 and an additional 33 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1649 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Warranwood's growth rate of 2.7% since the census positions it within 1.3 percentage points of the SA4 region's growth of 4.0%. The population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration contributing approximately 65.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering these projected demographic shifts, the suburb is expected to grow by just below the median of national areas, with an increase of 256 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a total increase of 4.1% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Warranwood, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Warranwood has recorded approximately 14 residential properties granted approval per year over the past five financial years ending June 2021. This totals an estimated 74 homes. In the current financial year, FY-26, there have been seven approvals so far. The population in Warranwood has declined recently, but housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, creating a balanced market with good buyer choice.

New properties are constructed at an average expected construction cost value of $556,000. There have also been $354,000 in commercial approvals this financial year, indicating a predominantly residential focus. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Warranwood shows approximately 68% of the construction activity per person and places among the 43rd percentile of areas assessed nationally, resulting in relatively constrained buyer choice and supporting interest in existing properties. This level reflects market maturity and possible development constraints. Recent construction comprises 75.0% detached houses and 25.0% medium and high-density housing, maintaining Warranwood's traditional suburban character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space.

This marks a significant departure from the current housing pattern of 98.0% houses, suggesting diminishing developable land availability and responding to evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs. With around 391 people per dwelling approval, Warranwood shows a developed market. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Warranwood is projected to add approximately 202 residents by 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting population growth beyond current projections.

Warranwood has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified two projects that may affect this region: Maroondah Planning Scheme, Revitalisation works at Jumping Creek, Warranwood (commenced 19th March 2018), Ringwood North Liveable Neighbourhoods Project (scheduled for completion in late 2023), and 170-172 Warrandyte Road Retail Development (expected to begin construction in early 2024).

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AreaSearch analysis of employment trends sees Warranwood performing better than 85% of local markets assessed across Australia

Warranwood has an educated workforce with significant representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate was 2.0% as of June 2025, indicating a strong employment market.

This is reflected in the estimated employment growth of 0.7% over the past year, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. In comparison, Greater Melbourne had an unemployment rate of 4.6% during the same period. Warranwood's workforce participation rate was 71.9%, higher than Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. The dominant employment sectors among residents were health care & social assistance, education & training, and construction.

Notably, Warranwood had a strong specialization in education & training, with an employment share of 1.4 times the regional level. However, transport, postal & warehousing had limited presence in Warranwood, with only 2.9% employment compared to the regional average of 5.2%. This suggests limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Over the 12 months to June 2025, employment in Warranwood increased by 0.7%, while labour force increased by 0.3%, causing a fall in unemployment rate by 0.4 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 3.5% and an increase in unemployment rate by 0.5 percentage points. For future projections, Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 offer insight into potential demand within Warranwood. These projections estimate national employment to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these industry-specific projections to Warranwood's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.4% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localized population projections.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2022, Warranwood had a median income among taxpayers of $57,444. The average income stood at $72,687. This is above national averages and compares to levels of $54,892 and $73,761 across Greater Melbourne respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $64,429 (median) and $81,526 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals household incomes rank at the 95th percentile ($2,852 weekly). The earnings profile shows the $4000+ bracket dominates with 30.1% of residents (1,489 people), differing from Greater Melbourne where the $1,500 - 2,999 category predominates at 32.8%. A substantial proportion of high earners (47.5%) indicates strong economic capacity throughout this suburb. After housing costs, residents retain 89.4% of income, reflecting strong purchasing power. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Warranwood is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Warranwood's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 98.4% houses and 1.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), contrasting with Melbourne metro's 87.2% houses and 12.8% other dwellings. Home ownership in Warranwood stood at 38.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 52.6% and rented ones at 9.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,167, surpassing Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. The median weekly rent in Warranwood was recorded at $423, compared to Melbourne metro's $385. Nationally, Warranwood's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Warranwood features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 87.9% of all households, including 52.7% couples with children, 24.8% couples without children, and 9.7% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 12.1%, with lone person households at 10.8% and group households at 0.8%. The median household size is 3.1 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Educational achievement in Warranwood places it within the top 10% nationally, reflecting strong academic performance and high qualification levels across the community

Warranwood has a higher proportion of residents with university qualifications than the Australian average. As of 2021, 34.3% of Warranwood's population aged 15 years and over held such qualifications. Bachelor degrees were most common at 22.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.2%) and graduate diplomas (4.4%).

Vocational credentials were also prevalent, with 31.6% of residents aged 15+ holding them. This included advanced diplomas (12.3%) and certificates (19.3%). Educational participation was notably high in Warranwood, with 32.6% of residents enrolled in formal education as of 2021. Of these, 11.0% were in secondary education, 10.2% in primary education, and 6.3% pursuing tertiary education. Educational provision includes Warranwood Primary School and Melbourne Rudolf Steiner School, collectively serving 861 students as of 2021. The area demonstrates above-average socio-educational conditions with an ICSEA score of 1096. The educational mix in Warranwood includes one primary school and one K-12 school.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Warranwood has 24 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. There are two routes serving these stops, together offering 988 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of transport in Warranwood is rated as good, with residents on average located 310 meters from the nearest stop.

Each route provides an average of 141 trips per day, which equates to approximately 41 weekly trips per individual stop.

Warranwood's residents are extremely healthy with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Warranwood.

Prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups is very low. Approximately 56% (~2748 people) of the total population has private health cover. The most common medical conditions are asthma and mental health issues, affecting 8.2% and 7.5% of residents respectively. 72.5% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 68.7% across Greater Melbourne. Warranwood has 15.8% (781 people) of residents aged 65 and over, lower than the 19.0% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

In terms of cultural diversity, Warranwood records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Warranwood's cultural diversity aligns with the broader regional average. Its population comprises 82.0% Australian-born, 93.2% citizens, and 89.4% English-only speakers at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Warranwood, practiced by 52.0%.

While Judaism remains marginal (0.1%), it is proportionally similar to Greater Melbourne's 0.1%. The top three ancestral groups are English (27.0%), Australian (26.1%), and Scottish (8.2%). Notable deviations include Dutch (3.0% vs regional 2.1%), Macedonian (0.6% vs 0.2%), and Sri Lankan (0.6% vs 0.5%) groups, all overrepresented in Warranwood compared to the wider region.

Warranwood hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Warranwood's median age is 41 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and slightly older than Australia's median of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Warranwood has a notably higher percentage of residents aged 55-64 (15.4% locally) but a lower percentage of those aged 25-34 (6.7%). According to the 2021 Census, the population of Warranwood aged 65 to 74 increased from 8.5% to 9.8%, and the cohort aged 75 to 84 grew from 3.7% to 4.8%. Conversely, the percentage of residents aged 45 to 54 decreased from 17.1% to 15.4%, and those aged 25 to 34 dropped from 8.0% to 6.7%. Demographic modeling indicates that Warranwood's age profile will change significantly by 2041, with the strongest projected growth in the 75 to 84 cohort (56%), adding 133 residents to reach a total of 371. This demographic aging trend continues as those aged 65 and older represent 70% of anticipated population growth. However, population declines are projected for the cohorts aged 55-64 and 0-4 years.