Yarra Valley
Statistical Area - sa2

Yarra Valley is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

Yarra Valley's population, as of August 2025, is approximately 17,144. This figure reflects an increase of 345 people from the 2021 Census total of 16,799, representing a growth rate of 2.1%. The change is inferred from ABS estimates showing a population of 17,059 in June 2024 and an additional 100 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 23 persons per square kilometer. Yarra Valley's growth rate since the census is 2.1%, which is within 1.2 percentage points of the SA3 area's 3.3% growth, indicating strong fundamentals for population growth. Natural growth accounted for approximately 64.6% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 for each SA2 area. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusting using weighted aggregation methods from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends suggest lower quartile growth, with Yarra Valley expected to expand by 219 persons to reach a total of approximately 17,363 by 2041, representing an increase of about 0.8% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Yarra Valley, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Yarra Valley has averaged approximately 39 new dwelling approvals annually. The Australian Bureau of Statistics produces development approval data on a financial year basis, indicating 190 homes over the past five financial years from FY21 to FY25, with 5 approvals recorded so far in FY26. Over these five years, an average of 0.5 new residents has been associated with each dwelling constructed. This suggests that supply is meeting or exceeding demand, providing increased buyer choices while supporting potential population growth beyond projections.

The average construction cost value for new homes in the area is $509,000. Additionally, $16.9 million in commercial approvals have been registered during FY26, indicating balanced commercial development activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Yarra Valley has roughly two-thirds the rate of new dwelling approvals per capita, placing it among the 26th percentile of areas assessed nationally. This suggests more limited housing choices for buyers and supports demand for existing homes in the area.

New building activity shows a dominance of detached dwellings at 92%, with townhouses or apartments comprising the remaining 8%. This maintains Yarra Valley's traditional low-density character, focusing on family homes that appeal to those seeking space. The estimated population density based on dwelling approvals is 644 people per dwelling. This reflects the area's quiet and low-activity development environment. Looking ahead, Yarra Valley is projected to grow by 134 residents by 2041. Given current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering favorable conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Yarra Valley has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Two projects have been identified by AreaSearch as likely impacting the area: Yarra Valley Railway Heritage Line Restoration and Monash Freeway Upgrade Stage 2.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Employment performance in Yarra Valley has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Yarra Valley's workforce is balanced across white and blue collar jobs. The construction sector stands out with significant representation, an unemployment rate of 5.2%, and estimated employment growth of 2.0% over the past year.

As of June 2025, 8,554 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 5.8%. This is higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%, and workforce participation is lower at 58.6% compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. The leading employment industries among residents include construction, health care & social assistance, and manufacturing. Construction shows strong specialization with an employment share of 1.9 times the regional level.

However, professional & technical services are under-represented at 4.4%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited as indicated by Census data. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 2.0% while the labour force grew by 0.8%, reducing the unemployment rate by 1.1 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced higher employment growth of 3.5%. State-level data to Sep-25 shows Victoria's employment grew by 1.08% year-on-year, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%. National forecasts from May 2025 project total employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Yarra Valley's employment mix suggests local growth could be approximately 6.0% over five years and 12.7% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows Yarra Valley's median income among taxpayers is $47,576. The average income in the area was $57,366. Both figures are lower than national averages. In comparison, Greater Melbourne had a median income of $54,892 and an average of $73,761. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.11% since financial year 2022, estimated incomes for March 2025 would be approximately $52,386 (median) and $63,166 (average). Census data indicates household, family, and personal incomes in Yarra Valley rank modestly, between the 25th and 32nd percentiles. Distribution data reveals that 33.7% of individuals in the area earn between $1,500 and $2,999, aligning with the broader area where this cohort also represents 32.8%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 83.7% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 31st percentile.

Yarra Valley is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Yarra Valley's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 95.6% houses and 4.5% other dwellings. This compares to Melbourne metro's 93.8% houses and 6.3% other dwellings. Home ownership in Yarra Valley was at 37.6%, mirroring Melbourne metro's level. The remaining dwellings were either mortgaged (50.0%) or rented (12.5%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,690, lower than Melbourne metro's average of $1,950 and the national average of $1,863. The median weekly rent in Yarra Valley was $315, lower than Melbourne metro's $380 and the national figure of $375.

Yarra Valley has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 70.9% of all households, including 30.0% couples with children, 27.8% couples without children, and 12.2% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 29.1%, with lone person households at 26.7% and group households making up 2.4%. The median household size is 2.5 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.7.

Yarra Valley shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

The area has university qualification rates at 16.5%, significantly lower than the Greater Melbourne average of 37.0%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 11.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.7%) and graduate diplomas (2.7%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 44.1% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.9%) and certificates (32.2%).

Educational participation is high at 28.2%, comprising 10.5% in primary education, 8.6% in secondary education, and 2.8% in tertiary education. Eighteen schools serve 2,105 students, with Yarra Valley demonstrating typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 984) and balanced educational opportunities. The educational mix includes 11 primary, 5 secondary, and 2 K-12 schools. School places per 100 residents are 12.3, below the regional average of 15.5, indicating some students may attend schools in adjacent areas. Note: where schools show 'n/a' for enrolments, please refer to the parent campus.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in the Yarra Valley area shows that there are currently 79 active transport stops operating. These stops serve a mix of bus routes. There are two individual routes that collectively provide 266 weekly passenger trips.

The accessibility to these transport services is rated as limited, with residents typically located 705 meters away from the nearest stop. On average, there are 38 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately three weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Yarra Valley is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Yarra Valley faces significant health challenges with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is very low at approximately 48% of the total population, which totals around 8,280 people. This compares to 52.4% in Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.3%.

Mental health issues and arthritis are the most common medical conditions in the area, impacting 10.3% and 9.6% of residents respectively. However, 64.6% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 66.9% across Greater Melbourne. The area has 21.2% of residents aged 65 and over, totaling around 3,629 people, which is higher than the 19.4% in Greater Melbourne.

Yarra Valley is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Yarra Valley, as per data from the 2016 Census, had a population with cultural diversity below average. It comprised 89.0% Australian citizens and 86.6% born in Australia. English was spoken at home by 96.5%.

Christianity was the predominant religion, practised by 34.1%. While Judaism's representation was proportionate to Greater Melbourne (0.1%), it was notable that the top three ancestral groups were English (33.2%), Australian (30.9%), and Irish (8.6%). Other ethnicities with notable divergences included Dutch at 3.1% in Yarra Valley compared to 3.2% regionally, Scottish at 8.2% versus 8.0%, and German at 3.8% versus 3.6%.

Yarra Valley hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

The median age in Yarra Valley is 43 years, significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and the national average of 38 years. The age profile shows that individuals aged 65-74 make up 12.3% of the population, while those aged 25-34 constitute only 10.7%. Between 2021 and present, the percentage of individuals aged 75-84 has increased from 5.4% to 7.0%, while the 45-54 age group has decreased from 14.3% to 12.7% and the 5-14 age group has dropped from 12.4% to 11.1%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate that the 75-84 age cohort is expected to increase by 468 people (39%), rising from 1,201 to 1,670. Notably, individuals aged 65 and above are projected to account for 94% of total population growth in Yarra Valley. Conversely, the 25-34 and 35-44 age cohorts are expected to experience population declines.