Yarra Valley

Yarra Valley is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Yarra Valley's population is around 17,166 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 367 people (2.2%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 16,799 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 17,059 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 107 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 23 persons per square kilometer, providing ample space per person. Yarra Valley's 2.2% growth since the census positions it within 1.8 percentage points of the SA3 area (4.0%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by natural growth, which contributed approximately 64.6% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. As we examine future population trends, lower quartile growth of statistical areas analysed by AreaSearch is anticipated, with the area expected to expand by 219 persons by 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, recording a gain of 0.7% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Yarra Valley, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Yarra Valley has averaged around 39 new dwelling approvals per year, with 199 homes approved over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 16 so far in FY-26. At an average of just 0.5 new residents per year arriving per new home over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), new construction is matching or outpacing demand, offering buyers more options and enabling population growth that could exceed current expectations, while new properties are constructed at an average value of $307,000, in line with regional trends. Additionally, $16.9 million in commercial approvals have been registered this financial year, suggesting balanced commercial development activity.

When measured against Greater Melbourne, Yarra Valley has around two-thirds the rate of new dwelling approvals per person, while it places among the 25th percentile of areas assessed nationally, meaning more limited choices for buyers and supporting demand for existing homes. This activity is likewise lower than the national average, reflecting market maturity and pointing to possible development constraints. New building activity shows 92.0% detached dwellings and 8.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's traditional low-density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. The estimated count of 644 people in the area per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low-activity development environment.

Looking ahead, Yarra Valley is expected to grow by 112 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Yarra Valley has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total 6 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include the Healesville Sanctuary Precinct Redevelopment (Stage 2), Graceburn Gardens Estate, the Maroondah Highway & Don Road Interchange Upgrade, and The Memo Healesville Redevelopment, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Yarra Valley has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Yarra Valley possesses a balanced workforce spanning white and blue collar employment, with the construction sector a particular standout in terms of representation, an unemployment rate of 6.1%, and 1.9% in estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 8,488 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 1.3% above Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%, and workforce participation lags significantly (63.7% compared to Greater Melbourne's 71.3%). Based on Census responses, a moderate 18.9% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Leading employment industries among residents comprise construction, health care & social assistance, and manufacturing. The area shows particularly strong specialization in construction, with an employment share of 1.9 times the regional level. On the other hand, professional & technical services are under-represented, with only 4.4% of Yarra Valley's workforce compared to 10.1% in Greater Melbourne. The area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of the Census working population versus the resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, during the year to December 2025, employment levels increased by 1.9% and the labour force increased by 1.5%, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 0.4 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 2.4% and labour force growth of 2.8%, with a 0.3 percentage point rise. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Yarra Valley. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Yarra Valley's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.7% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

As per AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released for FY-23, the Yarra Valley SA2's median income among taxpayers is $50,873, with an average of $60,174. This is lower than average on a national basis, and compares to Greater Melbourne's median of $57,688 and average of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $55,070 (median) and $65,138 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals household, family and personal incomes all rank modestly in Yarra Valley, between the 24th and 31st percentiles. Distribution data shows the $1,500 - 2,999 earnings band captures 33.7% of the community (5,784 individuals), aligning with the broader area where this cohort likewise represents 32.8%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 83.7% of income remaining, ranking at the 31st percentile.

Yarra Valley is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within Yarra Valley, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 95.6% houses and 4.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Yarra Valley was well beyond that of Melbourne metro, at 37.6%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (50.0%) or rented (12.5%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well below the Melbourne metro average at $1,690, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $315, compared to Melbourne metro's $2,000 and $390. Nationally, Yarra Valley's mortgage repayments are lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially below the national figure of $375.

Yarra Valley has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 70.9% of all households, comprising 30.0% couples with children, 27.8% couples without children, and 12.2% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 29.1%, with lone person households at 26.7% and group households comprising 2.4% of the total. The median household size of 2.5 people is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Yarra Valley shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (16.5%) substantially below the Greater Melbourne average of 37.0%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 11.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.7%) and graduate diplomas (2.7%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 44.1% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (11.9%) and certificates (32.2%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 28.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.5% in primary education, 8.6% in secondary education, and 2.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 79 active transport stops operating within Yarra Valley comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 2 individual routes, collectively providing 161 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as limited, with residents typically located 704 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 94%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.8 per dwelling, which is above the regional average. Some 18.9% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 23 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 2 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Yarra Valley is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Yarra Valley faces significant health challenges, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts, and the rate of private health cover is very low at approximately 49% of the total population (~8,394 people). This compares to 56.7% across Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are mental health issues and arthritis, impacting 10.3% and 9.6% of residents, respectively, while 64.6% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. The working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 21.9% of residents aged 65 and over (3,754 people), which is higher than the 15.1% in Greater Melbourne, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Yarra Valley is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Yarra Valley was found to be below average in terms of cultural diversity, with 89.0% of its population being citizens, 86.6% born in Australia, and 96.5% speaking English only at home. The main religion in Yarra Valley is Christianity, which makes up 34.1% of people. However, the most apparent overrepresentation was in Judaism, which comprises 0.1% of the population, compared to 1.0% across Greater Melbourne.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Yarra Valley are English, comprising 33.2% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 20.1%, Australian, comprising 30.9% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 18.4%, and Irish, comprising 8.6% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Dutch is notably overrepresented at 3.1% of Yarra Valley (vs 1.2% regionally), Scottish at 8.2% (vs 5.6%) and German at 3.8% (vs 2.2%).

Yarra Valley's median age exceeds the national pattern

The 43-year median age in Yarra Valley is considerably higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 as well as substantially exceeding the 38-year national average. The age profile shows 65 - 74 year-olds are particularly prominent (12.5%), while the 25 - 34 group is comparatively smaller (10.2%) than in Greater Melbourne. Since 2021, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 5.4% to 7.5% of the population, while the 35 to 44 cohort increased from 11.3% to 12.5%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 14.3% to 12.3% and the 25 to 34 group dropped from 11.7% to 10.2%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections reveal significant shifts in Yarra Valley's age structure. The 75 to 84 age cohort is projected to increase solidly, expanding by 391 people (31%) from 1,278 to 1,670. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 87% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. On the other hand, the 25 to 34 and 55 to 64 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.