Yarra Valley

Yarra Valley is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

Yarra Valley's population is approximately 17,097 as of May 2026. This figure shows an increase of 298 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 16,799. The growth is inferred from ABS estimates: 17,087 in June 2025 and 113 new addresses validated since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 23 persons per square kilometer. Yarra Valley's 1.8% growth since census compares to the SA3 area's 3.5%, indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Natural growth contributed approximately 58.0% of overall population gains recently.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 are used, adjusted via weighted aggregation to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future trends suggest lower quartile growth, with the area expected to expand by 208 persons to 2041 based on latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a total gain of 1.2% over the 16-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Yarra Valley, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Yarra Valley averaged approximately 39 new dwelling approvals annually. Between FY-21 and FY-25199 homes were approved, with an additional 42 approved in FY-26 to date. Over the past five financial years, an average of 0.5 new residents per year arrived for each new home.

This indicates that new construction is meeting or exceeding demand, providing more options for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections. The average expected construction cost value of new properties was $307,000, aligning with regional trends. In FY-26, commercial approvals totaled $16.9 million, suggesting balanced commercial development activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Yarra Valley has around two-thirds the rate of new dwelling approvals per person.

Nationally, it ranks in the 25th percentile of areas assessed for new dwelling approvals, offering limited choices for buyers and supporting demand for existing homes. This lower activity reflects market maturity and potential development constraints. New building activity in Yarra Valley consists predominantly of detached dwellings (92.0%) with a smaller proportion of townhouses or apartments (8.0%), maintaining the area's traditional low-density character focused on family homes. The estimated population density, based on dwelling approvals, is 644 people per dwelling. Looking ahead, Yarra Valley is projected to grow by 198 residents by 2041, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering favorable conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Yarra Valley has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

The performance of an area can significantly be influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified six projects likely to impact the area. Notable projects include Healesville Sanctuary Precinct Redevelopment (Stage 2), Graceburn Gardens Estate, Maroondah Highway & Don Road Interchange Upgrade, and The Memo Healesville Redevelopment. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Yarra Valley has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Yarra Valley has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs. The construction sector stands out with high representation, an unemployment rate of 6.1%, and estimated employment growth of 1.9% over the past year. As of December 2025, 8,488 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 1.3% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%.

Workforce participation in Yarra Valley lags at 63.7%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 69.9%. According to Census responses, 18.9% of residents work from home. Leading employment industries are construction, health care & social assistance, and manufacturing. Construction is particularly strong with an employment share 1.9 times the regional level.

Professional & technical services are under-represented at 4.4%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. Employment opportunities locally appear limited based on Census data. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment levels increased by 1.9% while the labour force grew by 1.5%, reducing the unemployment rate by 0.4 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment growth of 2.4% and labour force growth of 2.8%, with a slight rise in unemployment. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, released in May-25, project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Yarra Valley's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.7% over ten years.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows Yarra Valley SA2 had a median income of $50,873 and an average income of $60,174. This is lower than the national average. Greater Melbourne's median income was $57,688 with an average of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth from financial year 2023 to March 2026 (9.62%), estimated incomes for Yarra Valley are approximately $55,767 median and $65,963 average. Census data ranks household, family, and personal incomes in Yarra Valley between the 24th and 31st percentiles. Income distribution shows 33.7% (5,761 individuals) earn between $1,500 - 2,999, similar to the broader area at 32.8%. Housing affordability pressures are severe with only 83.7% of income remaining, ranking at the 31st percentile.

Yarra Valley is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Yarra Valley's latest Census data shows 95.6% houses and 4.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Yarra Valley was 37.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 50.0% and rented dwellings at 12.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,690, below Melbourne metro's $2,000 and the Australian average of $1,863. Median weekly rent in Yarra Valley was $315, lower than Melbourne metro's $390 and the national figure of $375.

Yarra Valley has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 70.9% of all households, including 30.0% couples with children, 27.8% couples without children, and 12.2% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 29.1%, with lone person households at 26.7% and group households making up 2.4% of the total. The median household size is 2.5 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Yarra Valley shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

The area's university qualification rate is 16.5%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent with 11.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 2.7% and graduate diplomas also at 2.7%. Vocational credentials are prominent, with 44.1% of residents aged 15 and above holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas account for 11.9% and certificates for 32.2%.

Educational participation is notably high, with 28.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.5% in primary education, 8.6% in secondary education, and 2.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in the Yarra Valley area shows that there are 79 active transport stops currently operating. These stops offer a mix of bus services, with two individual routes providing a total of 161 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility to these transport services is rated as limited, with residents typically residing 704 meters away from the nearest stop. As a predominantly residential area, most residents commute outward to other areas for work or leisure. The car remains the primary mode of transportation, used by 94% of residents. On average, there are 1.8 vehicles owned per dwelling in the Yarra Valley, which is higher than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 18.9% of residents work from home, a figure that may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency across all routes averages 23 trips per day, equating to approximately two weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Yarra Valley is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Yarra Valley faces significant health challenges as assessed by AreaSearch. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are high among both younger and older age cohorts. Private health cover is very low, at approximately 49% of the total population of around 8,360 people, compared to 56.7% in Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions are mental health issues (10.3%) and arthritis (9.6%), with 64.6% of residents reporting no medical ailments, compared to 72.6% in Greater Melbourne. The working-age population faces notable health challenges due to elevated chronic condition rates. The area has a higher proportion of residents aged 65 and over, at 21.3% (3,646 people), compared to 15.0% in Greater Melbourne. National rankings for the area are broadly in line with the general population.

Yarra Valley is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Yarra Valley, as per data from the 2016 Census, showed lower cultural diversity with 89.0% of its population being Australian citizens, 86.6% born in Australia, and 96.5% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 34.1% of Yarra Valley's population. Notably, Judaism, at 0.1%, was overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne's average of 1.0%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were English (33.2%), Australian (30.9%), and Irish (8.6%), all higher than regional averages. Other ethnicities with notable divergences included Dutch at 3.1% (vs regional 1.2%), Scottish at 8.2% (vs 5.6%), and German at 3.8% (vs 2.2%).

Yarra Valley's median age exceeds the national pattern

The median age in Yarra Valley is 43 years, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and exceeds the national average of 38 years. The age profile shows that individuals aged 65-74 make up 12.2% of the population, while those aged 25-34 constitute 10.6%. Since 2021, the proportion of people aged 75-84 has grown from 5.4% to 7.2%, and the 35-44 age group has increased from 11.3% to 12.5%. Conversely, the 45-54 cohort has decreased from 14.3% to 12.4%, and the 5-14 age group has dropped from 12.4% to 11.2%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate that the 75-84 age cohort will increase by 388 people (31%), rising from 1,236 to 1,625. Notably, the combined age groups of 65 and above are projected to account for 86% of total population growth, reflecting Yarra Valley's aging demographic profile. Conversely, the 0-4 and 35-44 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.