Tecoma

Tecoma has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

Based on analysis of Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) population updates for the broader area, as of November 2025, the estimated population of Tecoma is around 2,089. This reflects an increase of 25 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,064 people. The change was inferred from the resident population of 2,094, estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest Estimated Resident Population (ERP) data release by the ABS in June 2024, and an additional six validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,154 persons per square kilometer, which is relatively in line with averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Tecoma's growth rate of 1.2% since the census positions it within 2.1 percentage points of the SA3 area (3.3%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the suburb was primarily driven by natural growth, contributing approximately 56% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the Victorian State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering the projected demographic shifts, over this period, projections indicate a decline in overall population, with the suburb's population expected to shrink by 22 persons by 2041 according to this methodology. However, growth across specific age cohorts is anticipated, led by the 75 to 84 age group, which is projected to expand by 83 people.

The level of residential development activity in Tecoma is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Tecoma has recorded approximately five residential properties granted approval annually over the past five financial years ending June 2021. This totals an estimated twenty-seven homes. As of February 2026, two approvals have been recorded in this financial year. The average expected construction cost value for new homes is $574,000, slightly above the regional average.

In terms of commercial development activity, $498,000 in approvals have been registered this financial year, indicating minimal activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Tecoma records around 66% of building activity per person and places among the 32nd percentile nationally, suggesting somewhat limited buyer options while strengthening demand for established homes. New construction has been entirely comprised of standalone homes, sustaining the area's suburban identity with a concentration of family homes suited to buyers seeking space. The location has approximately 519 people per dwelling approval, reflecting an established area with stable or declining population forecasts, which may create favourable conditions for buyers experiencing less housing pressure.

Given stable or declining population forecasts, Tecoma may experience less housing pressure, creating favourable conditions for buyers.

Tecoma has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

No local infrastructure changes or major projects have been identified by AreaSearch as likely impacting the area. Key projects include Angliss Hospital Expansion, Dandenong Ranges Environmental Protection Program, South East Melbourne Recycled Water Supply Infrastructure Upgrades, and Yarra Ranges Council Drainage Infrastructure Program.

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The employment environment in Tecoma shows above-average strength when compared nationally

Tecoma has an educated workforce with significant representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 3.1% as of June 2025, with estimated employment growth of 1.1% over the previous year.

This is based on AreaSearch aggregation of statistical area data. As of that date, 1,234 residents were employed, and the unemployment rate was 1.5% lower than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation in Tecoma was higher at 69.6%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Key industries of employment among residents include education & training, health care & social assistance, and construction.

Education & training is particularly strong, with an employment share 1.6 times the regional level. Conversely, transport, postal & warehousing is under-represented at 2.3% compared to Greater Melbourne's 5.2%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Over the 12 months to June 2025, employment increased by 1.1%, while labour force grew by 0.7%, reducing the unemployment rate by 0.3 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment rise by 3.5%, labour force grow by 4.0%, and unemployment increase by 0.5 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.1% over ten years, with variations between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Tecoma's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.1% over ten years, based on simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows that median income in Tecoma is $52,813 and average income stands at $66,820. This contrasts with Greater Melbourne's median income of $54,892 and average income of $73,761. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, current estimates for Tecoma would be approximately $59,235 (median) and $74,945 (average) as of September 2025. The 2021 Census reveals that incomes in Tecoma cluster around the 64th percentile nationally. Income analysis shows that the largest segment comprises 34.5% earning between $1,500 and $2,999 weekly (720 residents), mirroring the regional figure of 32.8%. After housing costs, residents retain 86.8% of income, reflecting strong purchasing power. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Tecoma is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

The latest Census evaluated Tecoma's dwelling structures as 95.0% houses and 5.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Melbourne metro's 93.8% houses and 6.3% other dwellings. Home ownership in Tecoma was at 31.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 53.3% and rented ones at 15.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,733, lower than Melbourne metro's average of $1,950. The median weekly rent figure in Tecoma was recorded at $348, compared to Melbourne metro's $380. Nationally, Tecoma's mortgage repayments are below the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are less than the national figure of $375.

Tecoma has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 73.1% of all households, including 34.4% couples with children, 26.6% couples without children, and 11.2% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 26.9%, with lone person households at 24.6% and group households comprising 2.0%. The median household size is 2.6 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.7.

Tecoma shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The educational profile of the area stands out regionally with university qualification rates at 32.0% for residents aged 15+, exceeding the SA3 area average of 23.8%. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 19.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.3%) and graduate diplomas (5.5%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 37.9% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas at 14.0% and certificates at 23.9%.

Educational participation is notably high at 28.3%, including 8.4% in primary education, 8.3% in secondary education, and 4.7% pursuing tertiary education. Tecoma Primary School provides local educational services within Tecoma, with an enrollment of 400 students as of the latest data. The area demonstrates above-average socio-educational conditions (ICSEA: 1077). There is one school focusing exclusively on primary education, with secondary options available in surrounding areas. School capacity exceeds typical residential needs at 19.1 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 15.5, indicating the area serves as an educational center for the broader region.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 20 active stops operating in Tecoma, offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 9 individual routes, collectively providing 2,038 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated good, with residents typically located 203 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 291 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 101 weekly trips per stop.

Health outcomes in Tecoma are marginally below the national average with common health conditions slightly more prevalent than average across both younger and older age cohorts

Tecoma shows below-average health indicators, with common conditions slightly more prevalent than average across both younger and older age groups.

Private health cover stands at approximately 53%, impacting around 1,112 people. Mental health issues affect 10.4% of residents, while asthma impacts 9.1%. About 65.7% report no medical ailments, compared to 66.9% in Greater Melbourne. The area has 17.8% of residents aged 65 and over (371 people), lower than the 19.4% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, broadly aligning with the general population's health profile.

Tecoma ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Tecoma's population showed lower cultural diversity, with 82.5% born in Australia, 91.0% being citizens, and 95.4% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion at 29.9%. The 'Other' religious category was overrepresented at 1.4%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 0.7%.

In terms of ancestry, the top groups were English (31.0%), Australian (23.9%), and Irish (10.9%). Some ethnicities had notable differences: Scottish was higher at 10.3% (regional average 8.0%), Dutch was slightly lower at 3.0% (regional average 3.2%), and Hungarian was higher at 0.5% (regional average 0.3%).

Tecoma hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

The median age in Tecoma is 42 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and Australia's national average of 38 years. The age group of 55-64 has a strong representation at 14.9% compared to Greater Melbourne, while the 25-34 cohort is less prevalent at 9.3%. As per data from the 2021 Census, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 3.9% to 5.9% of Tecoma's population. Conversely, the 25 to 34 cohort has declined from 11.4% to 9.3%. Population forecasts for the year 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes for Tecoma. The 75 to 84 age group is expected to grow by 56%, adding 68 people, reaching a total of 192 from 123. Notably, the combined age groups of 65 and above will account for 99% of total population growth, reflecting Tecoma's aging demographic profile. In contrast, the 65 to 74 and 25 to 34 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.