Ferntree Gully - North

An assessment of population growth drivers in Ferntree Gully - North reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Ferntree Gully - North's population is around 14,559 as of May 2026. This reflects an increase of 414 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 14,145 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 14,538 from the ABS as of June 2025 and an additional 136 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 2,082 persons per square kilometer. Ferntree Gully - North's growth rate of 2.9% since census positions it close to the SA3 area's growth rate of 3.1%. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration contributing approximately 70.6% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered, AreaSearch uses VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, Ferntree Gully - North is expected to grow by 764 persons based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a total increase of 5.1% over the 16-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Ferntree Gully - North according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Ferntree Gully - North averaged approximately 54 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years from FY21 to FY25, totalling 272 homes. As of FY26, there have been 33 approvals. Despite a population decline during this period, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, indicating a balanced market with diverse buyer options.

The average construction cost for new properties is $324,000. This year, $7.1 million in commercial approvals were registered, reflecting the area's predominantly residential character. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Ferntree Gully - North has 17% less new development per capita but ranks among the 51st percentile nationally. The dwelling mix comprises 58% detached and 42% attached dwellings, offering medium-density options and price bracket variety.

This shift from the current housing mix of 85% houses addresses reduced development site availability and changing lifestyle demands. With approximately 324 people per dwelling approval, Ferntree Gully - North exhibits low-density characteristics. Population forecasts suggest a gain of 743 residents by 2041. Given current development patterns, new housing supply should meet demand adequately, favourable for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond projections.

Ferntree Gully - North has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Infrastructure changes significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 16 projects potentially impacting the area. Notable ones are Knoxfield Development Victoria Project, Bluett Reserve Playground Upgrade, Burwood Highway-McMahons Road Intersection Upgrade, and Ferntree Gully Community Housing. The following list details those most relevant:.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis reveals Ferntree Gully - North recording weaker employment conditions than most comparable areas nationwide

Ferntree Gully - North has an unemployment rate of 5.9% as of December 2021, with an estimated employment growth of 2.4% over the past year. By December 2025, there are 7,530 residents in work, with an unemployment rate of 7%. The workforce participation rate is 65.6%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 69.9%.

A high proportion of residents, 26.8%, were working from home based on Census responses in 2021. Leading employment industries include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. The area has a strong specialization in construction, with an employment share of 1.3 times the regional level. However, professional & technical services have limited presence, with only 7.7% employment compared to the regional average of 10.1%.

Over the year to December 2025, employment increased by 2.4%, while the labour force grew by 1.6%, leading to a decrease in unemployment rate by 0.8 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment rise by 2.4% but an increase in unemployment by 0.3 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Ferntree Gully - North's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by approximately 6.5% over five years and 13.5% over ten years, assuming constant population projections.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

As per AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released on 30 June 2023 for financial year 2023, the Ferntree Gully - North SA2's median income among taxpayers is $54,972, with an average of $66,832. This is slightly lower than national averages, which compare to Greater Melbourne's median of $57,688 and average of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $60,260 (median) and $73,261 (average) as of March 2026. Census data reveals household income ranks at the 41st percentile, family income at the 42nd, and personal income at the 43rd in Ferntree Gully - North. The earnings profile shows the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket dominates with 33.4% of residents (4,862 people), reflecting patterns seen regionally where 32.8% similarly occupy this range. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 83.3% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 41st percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Ferntree Gully - North is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Ferntree Gully - North's dwellings, as per the latest Census, consisted of 84.8% houses and 15.2% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Ferntree Gully - North stood at 34.8%, with mortgaged dwellings at 41.2% and rented ones at 23.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,889, lower than Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. Median weekly rent in Ferntree Gully - North was $370, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Ferntree Gully - North's median monthly mortgage repayment is higher at $1,889 than the Australian average of $1,863, while median weekly rent is lower at $370 than the national figure of $375.

Ferntree Gully - North has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 68.8% of all households, including 29.8% couples with children, 24.8% couples without children, and 13.0% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 31.2%, with lone person households at 28.2% and group households comprising 2.9%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Ferntree Gully - North performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

The area's university qualification rate is 25.8%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 17.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.6%) and graduate diplomas (2.7%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 36.6% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 12.1% and certificates at 24.5%. Educational participation is high, with 26.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education: 8.7% in primary, 6.8% in secondary, and 4.6% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 26.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.7% in primary education, 6.8% in secondary education, and 4.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Ferntree Gully - North has 63 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 19 different routes that together facilitate 4,157 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is deemed good, with residents on average located 257 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outwards due to the predominantly residential nature of the area. Cars remain the primary mode of transportation, used by 90% of residents. On average, there are 1.4 vehicles per dwelling.

According to the 2021 Census, 26.8% of residents work from home, a figure that may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. Across all routes, service frequency averages 593 trips per day, equating to roughly 65 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Ferntree Gully - North is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a slightly higher degree among older age cohorts

Ferntree Gully - North faces significant health challenges based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are somewhat prevalent across all age cohorts but slightly more so among older age groups.

Private health cover is at approximately 52% of the total population (~7,585 people), lagging behind the average SA2 area rate of 56.7%. The most common medical conditions in the area are mental health issues and arthritis, impacting 9.6% and 8.7% of residents respectively. 64.4% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents show an above average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 20.6% of residents aged 65 and over (2,997 people), higher than the 15.0% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges but rank lower nationally than those of the broader population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Ferntree Gully - North was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Ferntree Gully - North has a cultural diversity above average, with 24.8% of its population born overseas and 17.4% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the main religion in Ferntree Gully - North, comprising 41.9% of people. Judaism, however, is overrepresented at 0.2%, compared to 1.0% across Greater Melbourne.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups are English (27.2%), Australian (26.1%), and Irish (7.6%). These percentages are substantially higher than regional averages: English by 7.1%, Australian by 7.7%, and Irish by 0.5%. Notably, Dutch (2.2%) and Sri Lankan (0.8%) groups are also overrepresented in Ferntree Gully - North compared to regional averages of 1.2% and 0.8% respectively. Hungarian ethnicity is slightly overrepresented at 0.4%, compared to the regional average of 0.3%.

Ferntree Gully - North's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Ferntree Gully - North's median age is 41 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and somewhat older than Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, the 75-84 age cohort is notably over-represented in Ferntree Gully - North at 7.7%, while the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 11.8%. According to the 2021 Census, the 15 to 24 age group has increased from 10.3% to 11.5% of the population, while the 25 to 34 cohort has declined from 13.5% to 11.8%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Ferntree Gully - North's age profile will change significantly. The 85+ age group is projected to grow by 78%, adding 374 residents to reach 855. Residents aged 65 and older are expected to represent 66% of the population growth, while the 15 to 24 and 0 to 4 age groups are projected to decline in population.