Ferntree Gully - North

An assessment of population growth drivers in Ferntree Gully - North reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Ferntree Gully - North's population, as of February 2026, is approximately 14,690. This figure represents an increase of 545 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 14,145. The growth can be inferred from the estimated resident population of 14,530 in June 2024 and the addition of 138 validated new addresses post-census. This results in a population density ratio of 2,101 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The area's 3.9% growth since the census is close to the SA4 region's 4.9%, indicating strong growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 68.6% of overall population gains in recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, Ferntree Gully - North is projected to increase by approximately 793 persons, reflecting a total growth of 4.3% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Ferntree Gully - North according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Ferntree Gully - North averaged approximately 54 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years from FY21 to FY25, with a total of 272 homes approved during this period and an additional 26 approved in FY26. The area's population has decreased slightly during this time, yet housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, resulting in a balanced market with diverse buyer choices. The average construction cost value for new properties is $324,000.

This financial year, commercial approvals totaling $7.1 million have been registered, reflecting the area's primarily residential nature. Comparatively, Ferntree Gully - North has 17.0% less new development per person than Greater Melbourne and ranks among the 51st percentile of areas assessed nationally. The current housing mix consists of 58.0% detached dwellings and 42.0% attached dwellings, demonstrating an increasing range of medium-density options that cater to various price brackets. The current population density in Ferntree Gully - North is around 324 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low-density area.

According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, the area is projected to gain approximately 633 residents by 2041. Given the current development patterns, new housing supply should meet demand readily, providing favorable conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Ferntree Gully - North has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 16 projects that could impact the region. Notable initiatives include Knoxfield Development Victoria Project, Bluett Reserve Playground Upgrade, Burwood Highway-McMahons Road Intersection Upgrade, and Ferntree Gully Community Housing. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis reveals Ferntree Gully - North recording weaker employment conditions than most comparable areas nationwide

Ferntree Gully - North has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate was 5.5% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 2.3%. As of September 2025, 7,528 residents are employed, and the unemployment rate is 0.8% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%.

Workforce participation lags at 65.5%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 71.0%. A high 26.8% of residents work from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Leading employment industries include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Construction is particularly strong with an employment share 1.3 times the regional level.

However, professional & technical services have limited presence at 7.7%, compared to the regional average of 10.1%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities. Over the year to September 2025, employment increased by 2.3% while labour force grew by 0.9%, reducing unemployment by 1.3 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment rise by 3.0%, labour force grow by 3.3%, and unemployment increase by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia forecasts national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Ferntree Gully - North's industry mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.5% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows Ferntree Gully - North SA2 had a median taxpayer income of $54,972 and an average of $66,832. Nationally, these figures are slightly lower than the average. In Greater Melbourne, the median is $57,688 with an average of $75,164. By September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $59,507 (median) and $72,346 (average), based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023. Census data indicates Ferntree Gully - North's household, family, and personal incomes rank modestly between the 41st and 43rd percentiles. The earnings profile shows that 33.4% of residents (4,906 people) fall into the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket, similar to regional levels where 32.8% occupy this range. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 83.3% of income remaining, ranking at the 41st percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Ferntree Gully - North is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Ferntree Gully - North's dwellings, as per the latest Census, consisted of 84.8% houses and 15.2% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), contrasting with Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Ferntree Gully - North stood at 34.8%, with mortgaged dwellings at 41.2% and rented ones at 23.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,889, below Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. Weekly rent in Ferntree Gully - North was $370, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Ferntree Gully - North's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were lower than the national figure of $375.

Ferntree Gully - North has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 68.8 percent of all households, including 29.8 percent couples with children, 24.8 percent couples without children, and 13.0 percent single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 31.2 percent, with lone person households at 28.2 percent and group households comprising 2.9 percent of the total. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Ferntree Gully - North performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

The area has university qualification rates of 25.8%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 17.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.6%) and graduate diplomas (2.7%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 36.6% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (12.1%) and certificates (24.5%). Educational participation is high at 26.5%, with 8.7% in primary education, 6.8% in secondary education, and 4.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 26.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.7% in primary education, 6.8% in secondary education, and 4.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Ferntree Gully - North has 63 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 19 different routes, together offering 4,157 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents living an average of 257 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outwards daily. Car remains the primary mode of transport, used by 90% of residents. On average, there are 1.4 vehicles per dwelling.

According to the 2021 Census, 26.8% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. Across all routes, an average of 593 trips are made daily, equating to approximately 65 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Ferntree Gully - North is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a slightly higher degree among older age cohorts

Ferntree Gully - North faces significant health challenges, as assessed by AreaSearch through mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are somewhat prevalent across all age groups, but more so among older cohorts.

Private health cover stands at approximately 52% of the total population (~7,653 people), compared to 56.7% across Greater Melbourne. Mental health issues affect 9.6% of residents, while arthritis impacts 8.7%. However, 64.4% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 72.6% in Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents have an above-average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 21.3% of residents aged 65 and over (3,124 people), higher than the 15.1% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges but rank lower nationally compared to broader population figures.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Ferntree Gully - North was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Ferntree Gully-North, surveyed in June 2016, had above-average cultural diversity with 24.8% overseas-born population and 17.4% speaking languages other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion at 41.9%. Judaism was overrepresented at 0.2%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 1.0%.

Top ancestry groups were English (27.2%), Australian (26.1%), and Irish (7.6%). Dutch (2.2%) and Hungarian (0.4%) were notably overrepresented, while Sri Lankan representation was equal at 0.8%.

Ferntree Gully - North's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Ferntree Gully - North's median age is 41 years, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and Australia's median of 38 years. Comparing with Greater Melbourne, Ferntree Gully - North has a notably higher proportion of the 75-84 cohort (8.1% locally), while the 25-34 age group is under-represented (11.3%). Post the 2021 Census, the 75 to 84 age group increased from 6.7% to 8.1%, and the 25 to 34 cohort decreased from 13.5% to 11.3%. By 2041, Ferntree Gully - North's age profile is projected to change significantly. The 85+ cohort is expected to grow by 77%, adding 360 residents to reach 829. Residents aged 65 and older are anticipated to represent 68% of the population growth, while declines are projected for the 15-24 and 0-4 age groups.