Ferntree Gully - North
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Ferntree Gully - North reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Ferntree Gully - North's population, as of November 2025, is approximately 14,580, reflecting a growth of 435 people since the 2021 Census. This increase represents a 3.1% rise from the previously reported figure of 14,145. The change is inferred from an estimated resident population of 14,530 in June 2024 and the addition of 138 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 2,085 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Ferntree Gully - North's growth rate of 3.1% since the census is within 0.9 percentage points of the SA4 region (4.0%), indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 68.6% of overall population gains in recent periods, driving primary population growth for the area.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilizes VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. Looking ahead, Ferntree Gully - North is expected to experience a population increase just below the median of statistical areas analyzed by AreaSearch, with an anticipated growth of 793 persons by 2041 based on recent numbers, reflecting a total increase of approximately 5.1% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Ferntree Gully - North according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Ferntree Gully - North averaged approximately 54 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, with a total of 272 homes approved during this period. In FY26, up until now, 12 dwellings have been approved. The population has decreased slightly during this time, yet housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, resulting in a balanced market with good buyer choice.

New properties are constructed at an average expected construction cost of $324,000. This financial year, $7.1 million in commercial approvals have been registered, indicating the area's primarily residential nature. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Ferntree Gully - North has 17.0% less new development per person, and it ranks among the 52nd percentile of areas assessed nationally. New building activity consists of 58.0% detached dwellings and 42.0% attached dwellings, offering a mix of medium-density options across various price brackets.

This shift reflects reduced availability of development sites and changing lifestyle demands and affordability requirements, differing from the current housing mix which is predominantly houses (85.0%). With around 324 people per dwelling approval, Ferntree Gully - North exhibits characteristics of a low density area. Population forecasts suggest that Ferntree Gully - North will gain approximately 743 residents by 2041. Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Ferntree Gully - North has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

AreaSearch has identified 16 infrastructure projects that could impact the area. Key projects include Knoxfield Development Victoria Project, Ferntree Gully Station Street Infrastructure Upgrade, Bluett Reserve Playground Upgrade, and Burwood Highway-McMahons Road Intersection Upgrade. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis reveals Ferntree Gully - North recording weaker employment conditions than most comparable areas nationwide

Ferntree Gully - North has an unemployment rate of 5.4% as of June 2021, with estimated employment growth of 1.6% over the past year. By June 2025, the unemployment rate is 5.4%, with 7,490 residents employed.

The leading industries are health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade, with a particularly strong specialization in construction at 1.3 times the regional level. Professional & technical services have limited presence, at 7.7% compared to the regional 10.1%. Over the year to June 2025, employment increased by 1.6%, while labour force grew by 0.7%, reducing the unemployment rate by 0.9 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, released in May 2025, project national growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years.

Applying these projections to Ferntree Gully - North's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.5% over five years and 13.5% over ten years.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2022 shows Ferntree Gully - North had a median taxpayer income of $51,466 and an average of $63,585. This is slightly lower than the national average. Greater Melbourne had a median income of $54,892 and an average of $73,761 in the same period. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, current estimates for Ferntree Gully - North would be approximately $57,724 (median) and $71,317 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals household incomes rank at the 42nd percentile, family incomes at the 43rd, and personal incomes at the 44th in Ferntree Gully - North. The earnings profile shows that 33.4% of residents (4,869 people) fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 income bracket, similar to regional levels where 32.8% occupy this range. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Ferntree Gully - North, with only 83.3% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 42nd percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Ferntree Gully - North is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Dwelling structure in Ferntree Gully - North, as per the latest Census, consisted of 84.8% houses and 15.2% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Melbourne metro's 83.4% houses and 16.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Ferntree Gully - North was at 34.8%, with the rest being mortgaged (41.2%) or rented (23.9%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,889, lower than Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. The median weekly rent was $370, compared to Melbourne metro's $400. Nationally, Ferntree Gully - North's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were lower than the national figure of $375.

Ferntree Gully - North has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 68.8% of all households, including 29.8% couples with children, 24.8% couples without children, and 13.0% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 31.2%, with lone person households at 28.2% and group households at 2.9%. The median household size is 2.4 people, smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.7.

Ferntree Gully - North performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

The area's university qualification rate is 25.8%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 17.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.6%) and graduate diplomas (2.7%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 36.6% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (12.1%) and certificates (24.5%). Educational participation is high at 26.5%, with 8.7% in primary, 6.8% in secondary, and 4.6% in tertiary education.

Seven schools operate within Ferntree Gully - North, educating approximately 1,628 students as of the latest data. The area's ICSEA score is 1029, indicating typical Australian school conditions with balanced educational opportunities. These schools include four primary, one secondary, and two K-12 institutions.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Ferntree Gully - North has 63 active public transport stops, offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 19 different routes, collectively facilitating 4,194 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated good, with residents typically located 257 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 599 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 66 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Ferntree Gully - North is lower than average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Ferntree Gully - North faces significant health challenges.

The prevalence of common health conditions is notable across both younger and older age cohorts. Approximately 51% of its total population (~7,464 people) has private health cover, slightly lower than the average SA2 area. The most common medical conditions are mental health issues (9.6%) and arthritis (8.7%). About 64.4% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 69.4% across Greater Melbourne. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 20.8%, with 3,031 people falling into this category, compared to 19.5% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

Ferntree Gully - North was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Ferntree Gully - North, surveyed in 2016, had a higher cultural diversity than most local areas. It had 24.8% of its population born overseas and 17.4% speaking languages other than English at home. Christianity was the dominant religion with 41.9%.

Judaism was slightly overrepresented at 0.2%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 0.1%. The top three ancestry groups were English (27.2%), Australian (26.1%), and Irish (7.6%). Notably, Dutch representation was higher at 2.2% than the regional average of 1.8%. Sri Lankan population was lower at 0.8%, compared to the region's 1.4%. Hungarian representation remained similar to the regional level at 0.4%.

Ferntree Gully - North's median age exceeds the national pattern

Ferntree Gully - North's median age is 41 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and slightly older than Australia's median age of 38 years. Comparing Ferntree Gully - North with Greater Melbourne, the 75-84 age group is notably over-represented at 8.0%, while the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 11.7%. According to the 2021 Census, the 75-84 age group has increased from 6.7% to 8.0% of the population, whereas the 25-34 cohort has decreased from 13.5% to 11.7%. By 2041, demographic modeling indicates Ferntree Gully - North's age profile will change significantly. The 85+ cohort is projected to grow by 98%, adding 410 residents to reach 829. Residents aged 65 and older are expected to represent 68% of the population growth, while declines are anticipated for the 25-34 and 0-4 age groups.