Ferntree Gully - North
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Ferntree Gully - North reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Ferntree Gully - North's population, as of August 2025, is approximately 14,556, an increase of 411 people since the 2021 Census. This reflects a growth rate of 2.9%, with the population in 2021 being 14,145. The change is inferred from ABS data showing an estimated resident population of 14,530 as of June 2024 and an additional 128 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 2,082 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Ferntree Gully - North's growth rate since the census is within one percentage point of the SA3 area's rate of 3.9%, indicating strong growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 68.6% of overall population gains in recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusting using a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. According to these projections, Ferntree Gully - North is expected to grow by approximately 793 persons by 2041, reflecting a total increase of 5.3% over the 17-year period. This growth rate is just below the median of statistical areas analysed by AreaSearch.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Ferntree Gully - North according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Ferntree Gully - North has averaged approximately 54 dwelling approvals annually. The Australian Bureau of Statistics provides development approval data on a financial year basis. Over the past five years, from FY21 to FY25, there have been 272 approvals, with 8 already recorded in FY26. Despite population decline, the area has maintained adequate development activity relative to its size, which is beneficial for buyers.

The average construction cost value of new homes is $465,000, aligning with regional trends. This financial year has seen $7.1 million in commercial approvals, indicating the area's residential character. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Ferntree Gully - North has 17% fewer new developments per capita and ranks at the 52nd percentile nationally. Currently, 58% of new building activity involves detached dwellings, with 42% consisting of townhouses or apartments, offering a mix of medium-density options across price brackets.

This shift reflects reduced development site availability and changing lifestyle demands. With approximately 324 people per dwelling approval, Ferntree Gully - North exhibits low-density characteristics. Population forecasts project an increase of 767 residents by 2041. Given current development patterns, new housing supply should meet demand, creating favorable conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating further population growth beyond projections.

Ferntree Gully - North has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure can significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 15 projects that could affect the region. Notable projects include Knoxfield Development Victoria Project, Ferntree Gully Station Street Infrastructure Upgrade, Bluett Reserve Playground Upgrade, and Burwood Highway-McMahons Road Intersection Upgrade. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Employment performance in Ferntree Gully - North has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Ferntree Gully - North has a skilled workforce with strong representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate was 5.4% as of June 2025, with an estimated employment growth of 1.6% over the past year.

There were 7,490 residents employed at this time, with an unemployment rate of 5.4%, 0.8% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation was similar to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Leading employment industries include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade, with construction notably concentrated at 1.3 times the regional average. Professional & technical services had a limited presence, with 7.7% employment compared to the regional average of 10.1%.

The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities based on Census data. In the year to June 2025, employment levels increased by 1.6%, and labour force grew by 0.7%, resulting in a decrease in unemployment by 0.9 percentage points. This contrasts with Greater Melbourne where employment rose by 3.5% but unemployment also rose by 0.5 percentage points. State-level data from Sep-25 shows Victoria's employment growth of 1.08% year-on-year, adding 39,880 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%. National employment forecasts suggest a growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but local projections based on industry-specific extrapolations estimate Ferntree Gully - North's growth at approximately 6.5%% over five years and 13.5% over ten years.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

Ferntree Gully - North had a median income of $51,466 and an average income of $63,585 in financial year 2022, according to ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. This is below the Greater Melbourne figures of $54,892 and $73,761 respectively. By March 2025, adjusting for Wage Price Index growth of 10.11%, estimated incomes would be approximately $56,669 (median) and $70,013 (average). In 2021 Census data, Ferntree Gully - North's household, family, and personal incomes ranked modestly, between the 42nd and 44th percentiles. The predominant income cohort was 33.4% of locals (4,861 people) earning $1,500-$2,999, similar to the surrounding region at 32.8%. Housing affordability pressures were severe, with only 83.3% of income remaining, ranking at the 42nd percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 5th decile.

Ferntree Gully - North is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

The dwelling structure in Ferntree Gully - North, as per the latest Census data, consisted of 84.8% houses and 15.2% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's figures of 83.4% houses and 16.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Ferntree Gully - North stood at 34.8%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (41.2%) or rented (23.9%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,889, lower than Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. The median weekly rent figure for Ferntree Gully - North was recorded at $370, compared to Melbourne metro's $400. Nationally, Ferntree Gully - North's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were lower than the national figure of $375.

Ferntree Gully - North has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 68.8% of all households, including 29.8% couples with children, 24.8% couples without children, and 13.0% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 31.2%, with lone person households at 28.2% and group households comprising 2.9% of the total. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.7.

Ferntree Gully - North performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

The area has university qualification rates of 25.8%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 17.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.6%) and graduate diplomas (2.7%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 36.6% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (12.1%) and certificates (24.5%). Educational participation is high, with 26.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education: 8.7% in primary, 6.8% in secondary, and 4.6% in tertiary education.

There are seven schools operating within Ferntree Gully - North, educating approximately 1,628 students. These schools demonstrate typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1029) with balanced educational opportunities, including four primary, one secondary, and two K-12 schools.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Ferntree Gully - North has 63 active public transport stops operating within its boundaries. These are a mix of train and bus services, with 19 individual routes in total. The routes collectively provide 4,194 weekly passenger trips.

Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 257 meters from the nearest stop. Service frequency averages 599 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 66 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Ferntree Gully - North is lower than average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Ferntree Gully - North has significant health challenges, with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts.

Approximately 51% of its total population (~7,452 people) have private health cover, slightly lower than the average SA2 area. The most frequent medical conditions are mental health issues (9.6%) and arthritis (8.7%), while 64.4% of residents reported no medical ailments, compared to 69.4% in Greater Melbourne. As of 2016, 20.8% of residents were aged 65 and over (3,026 people), higher than the 19.5% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors are challenging, generally mirroring those of the overall population's health profile.

Ferntree Gully - North was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Ferntree Gully - North, surveyed in 2016, had a higher cultural diversity than most local areas. It reported that 24.8% of its population were born overseas and 17.4% spoke languages other than English at home. Christianity was the dominant religion, with 41.9%.

Judaism stood out, comprising 0.2%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 0.1%. Regarding ancestry (parents' country of birth), the top groups were English (27.2%), Australian (26.1%), and Irish (7.6%). Notably, Dutch (2.2%) and Hungarian (0.4%) were proportionally higher than regional averages. Sri Lankan was lower at 0.8% compared to the region's 1.4%.

Ferntree Gully - North's median age exceeds the national pattern

Ferntree Gully - North's median age is 41 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and slightly older than Australia's median of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Ferntree Gully - North has a notably higher proportion of residents aged 75-84 (8.0%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (11.7%). According to the 2021 Census, the 75 to 84 age group has increased from 6.7% to 8.0%, while the 25 to 34 cohort has decreased from 13.5% to 11.7%. By 2041, Ferntree Gully - North's age profile is projected to change significantly. The 85+ cohort is expected to grow by 98%, adding 411 residents to reach 829. Residents aged 65 and older are anticipated to represent 67% of the population growth, while declines are projected for the 0 to 4 and 25 to 34 age groups.