Ferntree Gully - North

An assessment of population growth drivers in Ferntree Gully - North reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Ferntree Gully - North's population, as of November 2025, is approximately 14,580, reflecting a growth of 435 people since the 2021 Census. This increase corresponds to a 3.1% rise from the previous population count of 14,145. The change is inferred from ABS data showing an estimated resident population of 14,530 as of June 2024 and an additional 138 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 2,085 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Ferntree Gully - North's growth rate of 3.1% since the census is within 0.9 percentage points of the SA4 region's growth rate of 4.0%, indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 68.6% of overall population gains during recent periods, driving primary population growth in the area.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted using a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. According to population projections, Ferntree Gully - North is expected to grow by approximately 793 persons to 2041, reflecting an increase of 5.1% in total over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Ferntree Gully - North according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Ferntree Gully - North averaged approximately 54 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25. A total of 272 homes were approved during this period, with an additional 22 approved in FY26 as of present. The population has decreased slightly during this time, yet housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, resulting in a balanced market with diverse buyer choices.

New properties are constructed at an average cost of $324,000. This financial year, $7.1 million in commercial approvals have been registered, indicating the area's predominantly residential nature. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Ferntree Gully - North has 17.0% less new development per person and ranks among the 51st percentile nationally when assessed against other areas. The new building activity shows a mix of detached (58.0%) and attached dwellings (42.0%), expanding medium-density options, and offering a range of housing alternatives across price brackets.

This shift reflects reduced availability of development sites and changing lifestyle demands and affordability requirements, differing from the current housing mix which is predominantly houses (85.0%). With around 324 people per dwelling approval, Ferntree Gully - North exhibits characteristics of a low-density area. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, the population is projected to grow by 743 residents by 2041. Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should meet demand adequately, providing favorable conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating further population growth beyond current projections.

Ferntree Gully - North has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 46thth percentile nationally

AreaSearch has identified 16 projects that could impact the area's performance, with key ones including Knoxfield Development Victoria Project, Bluett Reserve Playground Upgrade, Burwood Highway-McMahons Road Intersection Upgrade, and Ferntree Gully Community Housing. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis reveals Ferntree Gully - North recording weaker employment conditions than most comparable areas nationwide

Ferntree Gully - North has an unemployment rate of 5.5% as of September 2025. This is 0.8% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%.

The workforce participation rate in the area is similar to Greater Melbourne's at 64.1%. Key employment industries include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Construction is particularly strong with an employment share of 1.3 times the regional level. However, professional & technical services have a limited presence at 7.7% compared to the regional average of 10.1%.

Over the year to September 2025, employment in Ferntree Gully - North increased by 2.3%, while labour force grew by 0.9%, leading to a decrease in unemployment rate by 1.3 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment rise by 3.0% and unemployment increase by 0.3%. Statewide, Victoria's employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year as of 25-Nov, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%, slightly higher than the national rate of 4.3%. National employment forecasts suggest a growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Ferntree Gully - North's employment mix indicates potential local employment increases of 6.5% over five years and 13.5% over ten years.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows Ferntree Gully - North SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $51,466 and an average of $63,585. This is slightly lower than the national average. Greater Melbourne had a median income of $54,892 and an average of $73,761 during the same period. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, current estimates for Ferntree Gully - North would be approximately $57,724 (median) and $71,317 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals household incomes rank at the 41st percentile, family incomes at the 42nd percentile, and personal incomes at the 43rd percentile in Ferntree Gully - North. The earnings profile shows that 33.4% of residents (4,869 people) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income bracket, similar to regional levels where 32.8% occupy this range. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Ferntree Gully - North, with only 83.3% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 41st percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the fifth decile.

Ferntree Gully - North is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Ferntree Gully - North's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 84.8% houses and 15.2% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Melbourne metro's 83.4% houses and 16.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Ferntree Gully - North stood at 34.8%, similar to Melbourne metro, with the rest being mortgaged (41.2%) or rented (23.9%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,889, below Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. Median weekly rent in Ferntree Gully - North was $370, lower than Melbourne metro's $400. Nationally, Ferntree Gully - North's mortgage repayments were higher at $1,889 compared to the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were lower at $370 versus the national figure of $375.

Ferntree Gully - North has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 68.8% of all households, including 29.8% couples with children, 24.8% couples without children, and 13.0% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 31.2%, with lone person households at 28.2% and group households making up 2.9%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.7.

Ferntree Gully - North performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

The area's university qualification rate is 25.8%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 17.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.6%) and graduate diplomas (2.7%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 36.6% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas at 12.1% and certificates at 24.5%. Educational participation is high, with 26.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 8.7% in primary education, 6.8% in secondary education, and 4.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Ferntree Gully - North has 63 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 19 different routes, facilitating 4,194 weekly passenger trips in total. Residents enjoy good transport accessibility, with an average distance of 257 meters to the nearest stop.

The service frequency averages 599 trips per day across all routes, equating to roughly 66 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Ferntree Gully - North is lower than average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Ferntree Gully - North faces significant health challenges, with notable prevalence of common health conditions across both younger and older age cohorts.

The rate of private health cover is approximately 51% of the total population (~7,464 people), slightly lagging behind the average SA2 area. Mental health issues and arthritis were found to be the most common medical conditions in the area, impacting 9.6% and 8.7% of residents respectively. 64.4% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 69.4% across Greater Melbourne. The area has 20.8% of residents aged 65 and over (3,031 people), which is higher than the 19.5% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Ferntree Gully - North was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Ferntree Gully - North has a cultural diversity above average, with 24.8% of its population born overseas and 17.4% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the main religion in Ferntree Gully - North, comprising 41.9% of its population. Judaism is overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne, making up 0.2% of Ferntree Gully - North's population.

The top three ancestry groups are English (27.2%), Australian (26.1%), and Irish (7.6%). Dutch (2.2%) and Hungarian (0.4%) are notably overrepresented compared to regional averages, while Sri Lankan is underrepresented at 0.8%.

Ferntree Gully - North's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Ferntree Gully - North's median age is 41 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and slightly older than Australia's median of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Ferntree Gully - North has a notably over-represented 75-84 cohort (8.0% locally), while the 25-34 age group is under-represented (11.7%). According to the 2021 Census, the 75 to 84 age group grew from 6.7% to 8.0%, while the 25 to 34 cohort declined from 13.5% to 11.7%. By 2041, Ferntree Gully - North's age profile is projected to change significantly. The 85+ cohort is expected to grow by 98%, adding 410 residents to reach 829. Residents aged 65 and older are anticipated to represent 68% of the population growth, while declines are projected for the 25-34 and 0-4 age groups.