Ferntree Gully - North

An assessment of population growth drivers in Ferntree Gully - North reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Ferntree Gully - North's population is around 14,690 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 545 people (3.9%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 14,145 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 14,530 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 138 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 2,101 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Ferntree Gully - North's 3.9% growth since the census positions it within 1.0 percentage points of the SA4 region (4.9%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which contributed approximately 68.6% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking at population projections moving forward, a population increase just below the median of statistical areas analysed by AreaSearch is expected, with the area expected to grow by 793 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 4.3% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Ferntree Gully - North according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Ferntree Gully - North has averaged around 54 new dwelling approvals per year, with 272 homes approved over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 28 so far in FY-26. Given population has fallen over the past period, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, creating a well-balanced market with good buyer choice, while new properties are constructed at an average value of $324,000. Additionally, $7.1 million in commercial approvals have been registered this financial year, demonstrating the area's primarily residential nature.

When measured against Greater Melbourne, Ferntree Gully - North has 17.0% less new development (per person) while it places among the 51st percentile of areas assessed nationally. New building activity shows 58.0% detached dwellings and 42.0% attached dwellings, showing an expanding range of medium-density options creating a mix of opportunities across price brackets, from traditional family housing to more affordable compact alternatives. This shows a considerable change from the current housing mix (currently 85.0% houses), reflecting reduced availability of development sites and addressing shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. With around 324 people per dwelling approval, Ferntree Gully - North shows characteristics of a low density area.

Population forecasts indicate Ferntree Gully - North will gain 633 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Ferntree Gully - North has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total, 16 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include the Knoxfield Development Victoria Project, Bluett Reserve Playground Upgrade, Burwood Highway-McMahons Road Intersection Upgrade, and Ferntree Gully Community Housing, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis reveals Ferntree Gully - North recording weaker employment conditions than most comparable areas nationwide

Ferntree Gully - North has a skilled workforce, with essential services sectors well represented, an unemployment rate of 5.9%, and 2.4% estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 7,530 residents are in work, while the unemployment rate is 1.1% above Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%, and workforce participation lags significantly (65.8% compared to Greater Melbourne's 71.3%). Based on Census responses, a high 26.8% of residents work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Leading employment industries among residents include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. The area shows particularly strong specialization in construction, with an employment share 1.3 times the regional level. Meanwhile, professional & technical services have a limited presence with 7.7% employment compared to 10.1% regionally. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of the Census working population versus the resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, over the 12 months to December 2025, employment increased by 2.4% while the labour force increased by 1.6%, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 0.8 percentage points. This contrasts with Greater Melbourne, where employment rose by 2.4%, the labour force grew by 2.8%, and unemployment rose 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Ferntree Gully - North. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Ferntree Gully - North's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.5% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

As per AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released for FY-23, the Ferntree Gully - North SA2's median income among taxpayers is $54,972, with an average of $66,832. This is slightly lower than average on a national basis, and compares to Greater Melbourne's median of $57,688 and average of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $59,507 (median) and $72,346 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals household, family and personal incomes all rank modestly in Ferntree Gully - North, between the 41st and 43rd percentiles. The earnings profile shows the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket dominates with 33.4% of residents (4,906 people), reflecting patterns seen at regional levels where 32.8% similarly occupy this range. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 83.3% of income remaining, ranking at the 41st percentile, and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Ferntree Gully - North is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within Ferntree Gully - North, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 84.8% houses and 15.2% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Ferntree Gully - North was well beyond that of Melbourne metro, at 34.8%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (41.2%) or rented (23.9%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was below the Melbourne metro average at $1,889, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $370, compared to Melbourne metro's $2,000 and $390. Nationally, Ferntree Gully - North's mortgage repayments are higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are less than the national figure of $375.

Ferntree Gully - North has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 68.8% of all households, comprising 29.8% couples with children, 24.8% couples without children, and 13.0% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 31.2%, with lone person households at 28.2% and group households comprising 2.9% of the total. The median household size of 2.4 people is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Ferntree Gully - North performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (25.8%) substantially below the Greater Melbourne average of 37.0%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 17.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.6%) and graduate diplomas (2.7%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 36.6% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (12.1%) and certificates (24.5%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 26.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.7% in primary education, 6.8% in secondary education, and 4.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 63 active transport stops operating within Ferntree Gully - North, comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 19 individual routes, collectively providing 4,157 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 257 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 90%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.4 per dwelling. A high 26.8% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 593 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 65 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Ferntree Gully - North is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a slightly higher degree among older age cohorts

Ferntree Gully - North faces significant health challenges, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a slightly higher degree among older age cohorts, and the rate of private health cover slightly lags that of the average SA2 area at approximately 52% of the total population (~7,653 people). This compares to 56.7% across Greater Melbourne.

The most common medical conditions in the area were found to be mental health issues and arthritis, impacting 9.6 and 8.7% of residents, respectively, while 64.4% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents show an above average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 21.3% of residents aged 65 and over (3,124 people), which is higher than the 15.1% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, though ranking lower nationally than the broader population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Ferntree Gully - North was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Ferntree Gully - North was found to be above average in terms of cultural diversity, with 24.8% of its population born overseas and 17.4% speaking a language other than English at home. The main religion in Ferntree Gully - North is Christianity, which makes up 41.9% of the population. However, the most apparent overrepresentation was in Judaism, which comprises 0.2% of the population, compared to 1.0% across Greater Melbourne.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Ferntree Gully - North are English, comprising 27.2% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 20.1%, Australian, comprising 26.1% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 18.4%, and Irish, comprising 7.6% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Dutch is notably overrepresented at 2.2% of Ferntree Gully - North (vs 1.2% regionally), Sri Lankan at 0.8% (vs 0.8%) and Hungarian at 0.4% (vs 0.3%).

Ferntree Gully - North's population is slightly older than the national pattern

At 41 years, Ferntree Gully - North's median age is significantly above the Greater Melbourne average of 37 as well as somewhat older than the Australian median of 38. Compared to the Greater Melbourne average, the 75 - 84 cohort is notably over-represented (8.1% locally), while 25 - 34 year-olds are under-represented (11.3%). Following the 2021 Census, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 6.7% to 8.1% of the population. Conversely, the 25 to 34 cohort has declined from 13.5% to 11.3%. Demographic modeling suggests Ferntree Gully - North's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041. The 85+ cohort shows the strongest projected growth at 77%, adding 360 residents to reach 829. Demographic aging continues as residents 65 and older represent 68% of anticipated growth. On the other hand, population declines are projected for the 15 to 24 and 0 to 4 cohorts.