Bayswater North

An assessment of population growth drivers in Bayswater North reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Nov 2025, the estimated population of Bayswater North is around 9,320, reflecting an increase of 306 people since the 2021 Census. The population was 9,014 in 2021. This increase is inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of resident population as 9,050 in Jun 2024, based on ABS ERP data, and an additional 188 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density is approximately 1,418 persons per square kilometer, above the national average assessed by AreaSearch. Bayswater North's growth of 3.4% since the census is within 0.6 percentage points of its SA4 region's growth rate of 4.0%. Overseas migration contributed around 67.0% of overall population gains in recent periods.

For projections, AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia data released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 for each SA2 area. For areas not covered by this data, it utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, the suburb is expected to increase by approximately 574 persons, reflecting a total growth of around 4.7% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Bayswater North, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, indicates that Bayswater North has experienced around 18 dwellings receiving development approval each year. Approximately 94 homes were approved over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, with a further six approved so far in FY-26. The population has declined recently, but development activity has been adequate relative to this decline, which is positive for buyers.

New properties are constructed at an average expected cost of $488,000. This year, there have also been $18.8 million in commercial approvals, demonstrating moderate levels of commercial development. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Bayswater North records markedly lower building activity, 54.0% below the regional average per person. This constrained new construction usually reinforces demand and pricing for existing properties, though development activity has picked up in recent periods. Nationally, this is also below average, reflecting the area's maturity and possible planning constraints. New development consists of 47.0% detached houses and 53.0% attached dwellings, a significant departure from the current housing pattern of 80.0% houses. This focus on higher-density living creates more affordable entry points and suits downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers.

The location has approximately 380 people per dwelling approval, reflecting an established area. Future projections show Bayswater North adding 436 residents by 2041, based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Bayswater North has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Area infrastructure changes significantly influence local performance. AreaSearch identified 15 projects likely impacting the area. Notable initiatives include Bayswater North Primary School Redevelopment and Upgrades (scheduled for completion in late 2023), Suffern Reserve Playground Renewal (commenced July 2022, expected finish by mid-2024), Kilsyth Connect Logistics Park (under construction since early 2021, due for completion in late 2024), and the Bayswater Business Precinct Transformation Strategy (launched in June 2022).

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The employment landscape in Bayswater North shows performance that lags behind national averages across key labour market indicators

Bayswater North has a skilled workforce with notable representation in the construction sector. Its unemployment rate was 4.8% as of June 2025, which is 0.1% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%.

Workforce participation in Bayswater North is similar to Greater Melbourne's at 64.1%. Residents are mainly employed in health care & social assistance, construction, and manufacturing. Manufacturing stands out with an employment share 1.5 times the regional level. However, professional & technical services have limited presence at 7.1% compared to the regional average of 10.1%.

The worker-to-resident ratio is 0.9, indicating substantial local employment opportunities. Over a 12-month period ending June 2025, employment in Bayswater North increased by 0.1%, while labour force grew by 0.6%, leading to an unemployment rise of 0.5 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment growth of 3.5% and a labour force expansion of 4.0%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia (Sep-22) project national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Bayswater North's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.4% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes only and do not account for localised population projections.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ending June 2022 shows median income in Bayswater North at $53,749 and average income at $61,379. This is below Greater Melbourne's median income of $54,892 and average income of $73,761. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% from July 2022 to September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $60,285 (median) and $68,843 (average). Census 2021 data indicates that income in Bayswater North is around the 51st percentile nationally. The predominant income bracket spans 36.4% of locals (3,392 people), with incomes between $1,500 and $2,999, aligning with Melbourne's metropolitan region at 32.8%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 82.9% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 45th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the fifth decile.

Bayswater North is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Bayswater North's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 79.8% houses and 20.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Melbourne metro had 87.2% houses and 12.8% other dwellings. Home ownership in Bayswater North was at 28.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 46.4% and rented ones at 25.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,835, lower than Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. The median weekly rent in Bayswater North was $360, compared to Melbourne metro's $385. Nationally, Bayswater North's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,835 compared to the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less at $360 than the national figure of $375.

Bayswater North has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 70.7% of all households, including 33.0% couples with children, 23.3% couples without children, and 13.2% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 29.3%, with lone person households at 26.8% and group households comprising 2.5% of the total. The median household size is 2.5 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

The educational profile of Bayswater North exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 26.7%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 17.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.8%) and graduate diplomas (3.0%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 36.8% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas at 12.4% and certificates at 24.4%. Educational participation is high, with 27.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education: primary (9.9%), secondary (6.8%), and tertiary (3.3%).

Bayswater North Primary School serves the area, enrolling 233 students. The school focuses exclusively on primary education; secondary options are available nearby. Local school capacity is limited at 2.5 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 15.5, leading many families to travel for schooling.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Bayswater North has 66 operational public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 14 different routes that collectively facilitate 2,263 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these services is rated as good, with residents generally located 212 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 323 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 34 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Bayswater North is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a considerably higher degree among older age cohorts

Bayswater North faces significant health challenges with common health conditions prevalent among its residents. Mental health issues impact 10.5% of residents, while asthma affects 9.0%.

Approximately 4,765 people have private health cover, which is around 51% of the total population. This rate is lower than the average SA2 area and Greater Melbourne's 54.1%. About 66.1% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 68.7% across Greater Melbourne. The area has 18.2% of residents aged 65 and over, totaling 1,696 people. Health outcomes among seniors require more attention than those in the broader population.

Bayswater North was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Bayswater North had a higher cultural diversity than most local areas, with 25.3% of its residents born overseas and 20.6% speaking languages other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Bayswater North, accounting for 41.5% of the population. The 'Other' religious category showed an overrepresentation in Bayswater North, with 1.7% compared to 1.1% across Greater Melbourne.

For ancestry, Australian (26.2%), English (26.0%), and Other (9.2%) were the top groups represented. Notably, Dutch (2.1%), Hungarian (0.4%), and Sri Lankan (0.7%) ethnicities had higher representations in Bayswater North compared to regional averages of 2.1%, 0.3%, and 0.5% respectively.

Bayswater North's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Bayswater North is close to Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and equivalent to Australia's median of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Bayswater North has a higher concentration of residents aged 65-74 (9.7%) but fewer individuals aged 15-24 (9.8%). Between the 2016 and 2021 censuses, the population aged 75 to 84 grew from 4.3% to 5.7%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 age group declined from 12.5% to 11.0%. By 2041, Bayswater North's age composition is expected to shift notably. The 75 to 84 group is projected to grow by 62%, reaching 859 people from 531. Those aged 65 and above are expected to comprise 81% of the population growth. Meanwhile, population declines are projected for the 55 to 64 and 15 to 24 age cohorts.