Upper Ferntree Gully

Upper Ferntree Gully is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

The population of Upper Ferntree Gully is estimated to be around 3,581 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase from the 2021 Census figure of 3,417 people, a rise of 164 individuals (4.8%). The growth is inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of 3,504 residents following examination of ABS's latest ERP data release in June 2024 and an additional validated new address since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of approximately 1,069 persons per square kilometer, comparable to averages seen across other locations assessed by AreaSearch. Upper Ferntree Gully's growth rate of 4.8% since the census is within 0.1 percentage points of its SA4 region (4.9%), indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 52.0% of overall population gains in recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the suburb is expected to increase its population by approximately 192 persons to reach a total of around 3,773 by 2041, reflecting an overall increase of about 3.2% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Upper Ferntree Gully, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data shows Upper Ferntree Gully had approximately 6 new homes approved per year over the past 5 financial years, totalling around 31 homes. As of FY26, 6 approvals have been recorded. On average, 0.8 people moved to the area annually for each dwelling built between FY21 and FY25, indicating that new supply is keeping pace with or exceeding demand. The average construction cost value of new properties was $550,000, suggesting developers are targeting the premium market segment.

Commercial approvals this financial year totalled $12.8 million, signifying steady commercial investment activity. Building activity comprised 67.0% detached dwellings and 33.0% medium and high-density housing, indicating an expanding range of medium-density options to cater to diverse price brackets. This shift from the area's existing 97.0% houses suggests decreasing availability of developable sites and reflects changing lifestyles.

Upper Ferntree Gully is currently estimated at around 695 people per approval. Future projections anticipate adding 115 residents by 2041, with current development rates comfortably meeting demand and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Upper Ferntree Gully has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified three projects likely to affect the region. Major initiatives include Angliss Hospital Expansion, Kings Park Masterplan, Woolworths Ferntree Gully eCommerce Expansion, and Fairpark Reserve. The following list details those projects deemed most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis places Upper Ferntree Gully well above average for employment performance across multiple indicators

Upper Ferntree Gully has a well-educated workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate was 2.9% as of December 2025. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 1.9%.

The unemployment rate in Upper Ferntree Gully is below Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%, standing at 1.9%. Workforce participation is somewhat lower, at 69.0% compared to Greater Melbourne's 71.3%. A high proportion of residents work from home, with 30.3% doing so according to Census responses. Key industries of employment among residents are health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training.

Upper Ferntree Gully shows strong specialization in construction, with an employment share 1.4 times the regional level. Conversely, finance & insurance has lower representation at 2.9% compared to the regional average of 4.9%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Over the 12 months to December 2025, employment increased by 1.9%, while labour force increased by 1.6%, resulting in a fall in unemployment by 0.1 percentage points. By comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 2.4%, labour force growth of 2.8%, with unemployment rising by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest potential future demand within Upper Ferntree Gully. These projections indicate national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Upper Ferntree Gully's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.7% over ten years.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ending June 2023 shows median income in Upper Ferntree Gully is $54,943 and average income is $68,263. Greater Melbourne has a median income of $57,688 and an average income of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% from July 2023 to September 2025, estimated incomes are approximately $59,476 (median) and $73,895 (average). Census data indicates household, family, and personal incomes in Upper Ferntree Gully fall around the 62nd percentile nationally. Income distribution shows 33.6% of residents earn between $1,500 and $2,999 annually, similar to regional levels at 32.8%. Housing accounts for 13.6% of income. Residents rank in the 72nd percentile for disposable income. Upper Ferntree Gully's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Upper Ferntree Gully is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Upper Ferntree Gully's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, comprised 97.0% houses and 3.1% other dwellings. In comparison, Melbourne metro had 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Upper Ferntree Gully was 37.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 48.7% and rented ones at 14.0%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,000, aligning with Melbourne metro's average. Weekly rent median was $369, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Upper Ferntree Gully's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were lower than the national figure of $375.

Upper Ferntree Gully has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 74.9% of all households, consisting of 36.0% couples with children, 26.6% couples without children, and 11.1% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 25.1%, with lone person households at 22.8% and group households making up 2.2%. The median household size is 2.6 people, which aligns with Greater Melbourne's average.

The educational profile of Upper Ferntree Gully exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Upper Ferntree Gully's educational qualifications trail regional benchmarks. In this area, 29.8% of residents aged 15 and above hold university degrees, compared to Greater Melbourne's 37.0%. This gap suggests potential for educational development and skills enhancement. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 18.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.9%) and graduate diplomas (4.1%).

Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 37.4% of residents aged 15 and above holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (12.5%) and certificates (24.9%). Educational participation is notably high, with 26.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.3% in primary education, 7.2% in secondary education, and 4.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Upper Ferntree Gully has 15 operational public transport stops, all of which are bus services. These stops are served by 13 different routes, collectively facilitating 3,247 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located approximately 319 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to its residential nature. Cars remain the dominant mode of transport at 90%, while trains account for 5% of commutes. Vehicle ownership averages 1.6 per dwelling, which is higher than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, a significant portion, 30.3%, of residents work from home, possibly due to COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency averages 463 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 216 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health outcomes in Upper Ferntree Gully are marginally below the national average with the level of common health conditions among the general population somewhat typical, though higher than the nation's average among older cohorts

Upper Ferntree Gully shows below-average health indicators based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The level of common health conditions among the general population is somewhat typical but higher than the national average among older cohorts.

Private health cover stands at approximately 54% of the total population (~1,927 people), slightly ahead of the average SA2 area but lower than Greater Melbourne's 56.7%. The most prevalent medical conditions are mental health issues (10.1%) and arthritis (8.9%), with 66.7% of residents reporting no medical ailments compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among the working-age population are broadly typical. The area has a higher proportion of seniors, at 21.9% (784 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 15.1%. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges but rank lower nationally than those of the broader population.

Upper Ferntree Gully ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Upper Ferntree Gully, as per the Australian Bureau of Statistics Census Data from June 2016, showed below average cultural diversity with 80.1% of its population born in Australia, 91.1% being citizens and 91.3% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the main religion, comprising 39.7% of people. Buddhism, however, was overrepresented at 1.2%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 4.2%.

In ancestry, the top three groups were English (28.8%), Australian (27.0%) and Irish (9.0%). Notably, Dutch (2.7%) Polish (1.2%) and Hungarian (0.4%) ethnicities were overrepresented compared to regional averages of 1.2%, 0.8% and 0.3% respectively.

Upper Ferntree Gully's median age exceeds the national pattern

Upper Ferntree Gully's median age is 41 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and somewhat older than Australia's median of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Upper Ferntree Gully has a notably over-represented cohort of 55-64 year-olds (13.7% locally) and an under-represented group of 25-34 year-olds (9.7%). According to the 2021 Census, the population of 75 to 84 year-olds grew from 5.5% to 7.5%, while the 15 to 24 cohort increased from 11.3% to 12.5%. Conversely, the 25 to 34 cohort declined from 12.0% to 9.7% and the 0 to 4 group dropped from 5.5% to 4.4%. Demographic modeling suggests that Upper Ferntree Gully's age profile will significantly evolve by 2041, with the strongest projected growth in the 85+ cohort (91%), adding 113 residents to reach 239. The demographic aging trend continues as residents aged 65 and older represent 84% of anticipated population growth. However, population declines are projected for the 55 to 64 and 0 to 4 cohorts.