Upper Ferntree Gully

Upper Ferntree Gully is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

The population of Upper Ferntree Gully, as estimated by AreaSearch based on ABS updates and new addresses validated since May 2026, is around 3,403. This figure represents a decrease of 14 people from the 2021 Census count of 3,417. The current resident population estimate of 3,394, along with one additional validated new address since the Census date, supports this inference. This results in a population density ratio of 1,015 persons per square kilometer, which aligns with averages seen across other locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed approximately 52.0% of overall population gains during recent periods for Upper Ferntree Gully.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. According to aggregated SA2-level projections, Upper Ferntree Gully is expected to increase by 171 persons to reach a total population of approximately 3,574 by the year 2041, reflecting an increase of 4.8% over the 16-year period.

The level of residential development activity in Upper Ferntree Gully is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Upper Ferntree Gully has seen approximately 6 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years ending June 2021. This totals an estimated 31 homes. As of June 2021, 6 approvals have been recorded in FY-26. The population decline in recent years suggests that new supply is meeting demand, offering buyers good choice.

New properties are constructed at an average expected construction cost value of $550,000, indicating developers target the premium market segment with higher-end properties. In FY-26, commercial approvals amount to $12.8 million, showing steady commercial investment activity. Building activity comprises 67.0% detached dwellings and 33.0% medium and high-density housing, expanding medium-density options across various price brackets.

This shift from the area's existing 97.0% houses indicates decreasing developable sites and reflects changing lifestyles seeking diverse, affordable housing options. Upper Ferntree Gully has around 698 people per approval, indicating a mature, established area. Latest AreaSearch quarterly estimates project an increase of 162 residents by 2041. Current development appears well-matched to future needs, supporting steady market conditions without extreme price pressure.

Upper Ferntree Gully has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified three projects likely to impact the region: Angliss Hospital Expansion, Kings Park Masterplan, Woolworths Ferntree Gully eCommerce Expansion, and Fairpark Reserve. The following details these key initiatives.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis places Upper Ferntree Gully well above average for employment performance across multiple indicators

Upper Ferntree Gully has an educated workforce with essential services well represented. The unemployment rate was 2.8% as of December 2025, with an estimated employment growth of 1.6% over the past year. This is based on AreaSearch aggregation of statistical area data.

In December 2025, 1,963 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 2.0%, below Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%. Workforce participation was at 69.9%, similar to Greater Melbourne. According to Census responses, 30.3% of residents worked from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Key industries for employment among residents were health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training.

Construction showed strong specialization with an employment share 1.4 times the regional level. Finance & insurance had lower representation at 2.9% compared to the regional average of 4.9%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities based on Census working population vs resident population comparison. Over the 12 months to December 2025, employment increased by 1.6%, while labour force increased by 1.4%, resulting in a unemployment fall of 0.2 percentage points. Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 2.4% and labour force growth of 2.8%, with unemployment rising 0.3 percentage points during the same period. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest potential future demand within Upper Ferntree Gully. These projections estimate national employment to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with differing growth rates between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Upper Ferntree Gully's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. However, this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows that median income in Upper Ferntree Gully is $54,943 and average income is $68,263. These figures are comparable to national averages but lower than Greater Melbourne's median of $57,688 and average of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes as of March 2026 would be approximately $60,229 (median) and $74,830 (average). Census data indicates that household, family, and personal incomes in Upper Ferntree Gully are around the 62nd percentile nationally. Income distribution shows that 33.6% of residents earn between $1,500 and $2,999, similar to regional levels at 32.8%. Housing expenses account for 13.6% of income. Upper Ferntree Gully residents have strong earnings, ranking them in the 72nd percentile for disposable income. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Upper Ferntree Gully is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Upper Ferntree Gully's dwellings, as per the latest Census, consisted of 97.0% houses and 3.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), contrasting with Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Upper Ferntree Gully stood at 37.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 48.7% and rented ones at 14.0%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,000, aligning with Melbourne metro's average, while the median weekly rent was $369, compared to Melbourne metro's $2,000 and $390 respectively. Nationally, Upper Ferntree Gully's mortgage repayments exceeded the Australian average of $1,863, whereas rents were below the national figure of $375.

Upper Ferntree Gully has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 74.9% of all households, including 36.0% couples with children, 26.6% couples without children, and 11.1% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 25.1%, with lone person households at 22.8% and group households making up 2.2% of the total. The median household size is 2.6 people, which aligns with the Greater Melbourne average.

The educational profile of Upper Ferntree Gully exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Upper Ferntree Gully's residents aged 15+ have a university degree rate of 29.8%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 18.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.9%) and graduate diplomas (4.1%). Vocational credentials are held by 37.4% of residents, with advanced diplomas at 12.5% and certificates at 24.9%. Educational participation is high, with 26.7% currently enrolled in formal education: primary (9.3%), secondary (7.2%), and tertiary (4.7%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 26.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.3% in primary education, 7.2% in secondary education, and 4.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Upper Ferntree Gully has 15 active public transport stops, all serving buses. These stops are covered by 13 different routes, offering a total of 3,247 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated good, with residents on average living 319 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outwards daily. Cars remain the primary mode of transport for 90% of residents, while trains are used by 5%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.6 per dwelling, higher than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 30.3% of residents work from home, a figure which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency across all routes is 463 trips per day, equating to about 216 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health outcomes in Upper Ferntree Gully are marginally below the national average with the level of common health conditions among the general population somewhat typical, though higher than the nation's average among older cohorts

Upper Ferntree Gully's health indicators show below-average outcomes based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The level of common health conditions among the general population is somewhat typical but higher than the national average among older cohorts.

Private health cover stands at approximately 54% of the total population (~1,831 people), slightly higher than the SA2 area average of 56.7%. Mental health issues and arthritis are the most common medical conditions in the area, affecting 10.1 and 8.9% of residents respectively. However, 66.7% of residents claim to be completely clear of medical ailments compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among the working-age population are broadly typical. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 21.5% (731 people) compared to Greater Melbourne's 15.0%. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, ranking lower nationally than the broader population.

Upper Ferntree Gully ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Upper Ferntree Gully, as per the 2016 Census, showed lower cultural diversity with 80.1% of its residents born in Australia and 91.1% being citizens. English was spoken at home by 91.3%. Christianity was the predominant religion (39.7%).

Buddhism, however, was overrepresented at 1.2%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 4.2%. In terms of ancestry, Upper Ferntree Gully had higher proportions of English (28.8% vs regional 20.1%), Australian (27.0% vs 18.4%) and Irish (9.0%). Dutch (2.7% vs 1.2%), Polish (1.2% vs 0.8%) and Hungarian (0.4% vs 0.3%) were also notably overrepresented.

Upper Ferntree Gully's median age exceeds the national pattern

Upper Ferntree Gully's median age is 41 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and slightly older than Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Upper Ferntree Gully has a notably higher proportion of residents aged 55-64 (13.8% locally vs Greater Melbourne's average) and a lower proportion of residents aged 25-34 (10.2%). According to the 2021 Census, the population aged 75-84 has grown from 5.5% to 7.4%, while the 15-24 age group increased from 11.3% to 12.4%. Conversely, the 25-34 age group has declined from 12.0% to 10.2%. Demographic projections suggest significant changes in Upper Ferntree Gully's age profile by 2041. The population aged 85 and above is projected to grow by 89%, adding 109 residents to reach 232. This demographic aging trend continues, with residents aged 65 and older representing 81% of the anticipated growth. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 0-4 and 15-24 age groups.