Upper Ferntree Gully

Upper Ferntree Gully is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

The population of the suburb of Upper Ferntree Gully is estimated at around 3,581 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 164 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,417 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 3,504 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 1 validated new address since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,069 persons per square kilometer. The suburb's 4.8% growth since census positions it within 0.1 percentage points of the SA4 region (4.9%). Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 52.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Moving forward with demographic trends, a population increase just below the median of national areas is expected, with the suburb expected to increase by 191 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 2.6% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Upper Ferntree Gully, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data indicates Upper Ferntree Gully has seen approximately 6 new homes approved per year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 32 homes. As of FY-26, 6 approvals have been recorded. The average population growth for each dwelling built in the area between FY-21 and FY-25 is 0.7 people per year, suggesting new supply is meeting or exceeding demand, offering ample buyer choice and capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts. New properties are being constructed at an average expected cost of $550,000, indicating developers are targeting the premium market segment with higher-end properties.

This financial year has seen $12.8 million in commercial approvals, suggesting steady commercial investment activity. Building activity shows 67.0% detached dwellings and 33.0% medium to high-density housing, expanding the range of medium-density options and creating a mix of opportunities across price brackets from traditional family housing to more affordable compact alternatives. This represents a notable shift from the area's existing housing composition, which is currently 97.0% houses, indicating decreasing availability of developable sites and reflecting changing lifestyles and the need for more diverse, affordable housing options.

Upper Ferntree Gully shows a mature, established population with around 632 people per approval. Future projections estimate an addition of 93 residents by 2041, suggesting that at current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Upper Ferntree Gully has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified three projects likely to impact the area. Key projects are Angliss Hospital Expansion, Kings Park Masterplan, Woolworths Ferntree Gully eCommerce Expansion, and Fairpark Reserve. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis places Upper Ferntree Gully well above average for employment performance across multiple indicators

Upper Ferntree Gully has a highly educated workforce with prominent representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate stood at 2.7% as of September 2025, with an estimated employment growth of 1.3% over the preceding year, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. As of that date, 1,984 residents were employed, and the unemployment rate was 2.0% lower than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%.

Workforce participation was broadly similar to Greater Melbourne's 71.0%. Census responses indicated that a high proportion, 30.3%, of residents worked from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Key industries of employment among residents were health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training. The area showed strong specialization in construction, with an employment share 1.4 times the regional level, while finance & insurance had lower representation at 2.9% compared to the regional average of 4.9%.

Employment opportunities locally appeared limited, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Over the 12 months to September 2025, employment increased by 1.3%, labour force by 0.9%, resulting in a unemployment fall of 0.4 percentage points, according to AreaSearch's analysis of SALM and ABS data aggregated from broader statistical areas. By comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 3.0% and labour force growth of 3.3%, with unemployment rising by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 offer insight into potential future demand within Upper Ferntree Gully. These projections estimate national employment expansion at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Upper Ferntree Gully's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localized population projections.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows median income in Upper Ferntree Gully is $54,943 and average income is $68,263. This contrasts with Greater Melbourne's median income of $57,688 and average income of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Upper Ferntree Gully would be approximately $59,476 (median) and $73,895 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals incomes in Upper Ferntree Gully cluster around the 62nd percentile nationally. Incomes range from $1,500 to $2,999 for 33.6% of residents, aligning with regional levels at 32.8%. Housing accounts for 13.6% of income. Residents rank within the 72nd percentile for disposable income. Upper Ferntree Gully's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Upper Ferntree Gully is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Upper Ferntree Gully's dwellings, as per the latest Census data, consisted of 97.0% houses and 3.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In contrast, Melbourne metro had 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Upper Ferntree Gully stood at 37.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 48.7% and rented ones at 14.0%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,000, matching Melbourne metro's average, while the median weekly rent was $369 compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Upper Ferntree Gully's mortgage repayments exceeded the Australian average of $1,863, but rents were lower than the national figure of $375.

Upper Ferntree Gully has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 74.9% of all households, including 36.0% couples with children, 26.6% couples without children, and 11.1% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 25.1%, with lone person households at 22.8% and group households comprising 2.2%. The median household size is 2.6 people, which aligns with the Greater Melbourne average.

The educational profile of Upper Ferntree Gully exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Upper Ferntree Gully's educational qualifications trail regional benchmarks. 29.8% of residents aged 15+ have university degrees, compared to Greater Melbourne's 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 18.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 6.9% and graduate diplomas at 4.1%. Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 37.4% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas at 12.5% and certificates at 24.9%.

Educational participation is high, with 26.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.3% in primary education, 7.2% in secondary education, and 4.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Upper Ferntree Gully has 15 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 13 different routes that collectively facilitate 3,247 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these stops is rated as good, with residents typically located 319 meters from the nearest stop. The majority of residents in this primarily residential area commute outward using their cars, which remains the dominant mode of transport at 90%. Five percent of residents use trains for commuting. On average, there are 1.6 vehicles per dwelling in Upper Ferntree Gully, which is higher than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, a high percentage of residents, specifically 30.3%, work from home, which may be reflective of COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency across all routes averages 463 trips per day, equating to approximately 216 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health outcomes in Upper Ferntree Gully are marginally below the national average with the level of common health conditions among the general population somewhat typical, though higher than the nation's average among older cohorts

Upper Ferntree Gully shows below-average health indicators based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The level of common health conditions among residents is somewhat typical but higher than the national average among older cohorts.

Private health cover stands at approximately 54% of the total population (~1,927 people), slightly higher than the average SA2 area but lower than Greater Melbourne's 56.7%. Mental health issues and arthritis are the most common medical conditions in the area, affecting 10.1 and 8.9% of residents respectively. However, 66.7% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among working-age residents are typical. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 21.6%, with 773 people, compared to Greater Melbourne's 15.1%. Senior health outcomes present some challenges but rank lower nationally than the broader population.

Upper Ferntree Gully ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Upper Ferntree Gully, as per the 2016 Census, had a cultural diversity below average. 80.1% of its population were born in Australia, with 91.1% being citizens and 91.3% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the dominant religion, comprising 39.7%.

However, Buddhism was overrepresented at 1.2%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 4.2%. In terms of ancestry, English (28.8%) and Australian (27.0%) were significantly higher than regional averages of 20.1% and 18.4%, respectively. Irish ancestry stood at 9.0%. Notable overrepresentations included Dutch (2.7%), Polish (1.2%), and Hungarian (0.4%).

Upper Ferntree Gully's median age exceeds the national pattern

Upper Ferntree Gully's median age is 41 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and somewhat older than Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, the 55-64 age cohort is notably over-represented in Upper Ferntree Gully at 13.6%, while the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 9.6%. According to the 2021 Census, the 75-84 age group has grown from 5.5% to 7.4% of the population, while the 25-34 cohort has declined from 12.0% to 9.6%. Demographic modeling suggests that Upper Ferntree Gully's age profile will change significantly by 2041. The 85+ age group is projected to grow strongly at 83%, adding 103 residents to reach a total of 229. Residents aged 65 and older are expected to represent 87% of the population growth, while declines are projected for the 25-34 and 55-64 age cohorts.