Upper Ferntree Gully

Upper Ferntree Gully is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

As of November 2025, the estimated population of Upper Ferntree Gully is around 3,679. This figure represents a growth of 262 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,417. AreaSearch estimates this population based on the resident population of 3,643 from the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional validated new address since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of approximately 1,098 persons per square kilometer. Upper Ferntree Gully's growth rate of 7.7% since the 2021 census exceeds the SA4 region's growth rate of 4.0%. Overseas migration contributed about 52.0% of overall population gains in recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. According to these projections, Upper Ferntree Gully is expected to increase its population by around 204 persons to reach a total of approximately 3,883 by the year 2041, reflecting an overall increase of about 0.2% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Upper Ferntree Gully, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Upper Ferntree Gully has seen around 7 new homes approved per year since FY-21. This totals an estimated 35 homes over the past five financial years. As of FY-26, 6 approvals have been recorded.

On average, 0.6 people move to the area each year for each dwelling built between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating that new supply is keeping pace with or exceeding demand. New properties are constructed at an average expected cost value of $550,000. Recent construction comprises 67.0% detached houses and 33.0% medium and high-density housing, showing an expanding range of medium-density options.

This reflects a change from the current housing mix, which is currently 97.0% houses. Upper Ferntree Gully shows a developed market with around 464 people per dwelling approval. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Upper Ferntree Gully is expected to grow by 9 residents through to 2041. Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Upper Ferntree Gully has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified three projects likely to impact the area: Angliss Hospital Expansion, Kings Park Masterplan, Woolworths Ferntree Gully eCommerce Expansion, and Fairpark Reserve. The following details the projects most relevant to the area.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis places Upper Ferntree Gully well above average for employment performance across multiple indicators

Upper Ferntree Gully has a well-educated workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate was 2.6% as of June 2025, with an estimated employment growth of 1.2% over the past year, according to AreaSearch aggregation of statistical area data.

In June 2025, 1991 residents were in work while the unemployment rate was 2.0% below Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation was fairly standard at 66.4%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Leading employment industries among residents comprised health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training. The area showed particularly strong specialization in construction, with an employment share of 1.4 times the regional level.

Finance & insurance was under-represented, with only 2.9% of Upper Ferntree Gully's workforce compared to 4.9% in Greater Melbourne. The predominantly residential area appeared to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population. Over a 12-month period ending June 2025, employment increased by 1.2%, labour force increased by 0.9%, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 0.2 percentage points. This compared to Greater Melbourne where employment grew by 3.5%, labour force expanded by 4.0%, and unemployment rose by 0.5 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 offered further insight into potential future demand within Upper Ferntree Gully. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, were mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. National employment was forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these industry-specific projections to Upper Ferntree Gully's employment mix suggested local employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, noting this was a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and did not take into account localised population projections.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch released postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022. Upper Ferntree Gully's median income among taxpayers was $54,977, with an average of $68,296. Nationally, the average income is lower than Upper Ferntree Gully's. In Greater Melbourne, the median income is $54,892 and the average is $73,761. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, estimates for September 2025 would be approximately $61,662 (median) and $76,601 (average). Census 2021 data shows incomes in Upper Ferntree Gully cluster around the 62nd percentile nationally. The predominant income cohort spans 33.6% of locals, with 1,236 people earning between $1,500 and $2,999. This is similar to regional levels where 32.8% fall within this range. Housing accounts for 13.6% of income. Residents rank within the 72nd percentile for disposable income. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Upper Ferntree Gully is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Upper Ferntree Gully's dwelling structure in its latest Census report showed 97.0% houses and 3.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In contrast, Melbourne metro had 0.0% houses and 0.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Upper Ferntree Gully stood at 37.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 48.7% and rented ones at 14.0%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,000, aligning with Melbourne metro's average. The median weekly rent figure was $369, while Melbourne metro had no recorded figures for rents or mortgages nationally. Upper Ferntree Gully's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were lower than the national figure of $375.

Upper Ferntree Gully has a typical household mix, with a median household size of 2.6 people

Family households account for 74.9% of all households, including 36.0% that are couples with children, 26.6% that are couples without children, and 11.1% that are single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 25.1%, with lone person households at 22.8% and group households comprising 2.2% of the total. The median household size is 2.6 people.

The educational profile of Upper Ferntree Gully exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Upper Ferntree Gully's educational qualifications trail Greater Melbourne's regional benchmarks. As of 2021, 29.8% of residents aged 15+ hold university degrees compared to 37.0%. This gap indicates potential for educational development and skills enhancement. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 18.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.9%) and graduate diplomas (4.1%).

Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 37.4% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (12.5%) and certificates (24.9%). Educational participation is high, with 26.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education as of the latest census data. This includes 9.3% in primary education, 7.2% in secondary education, and 4.7% pursuing tertiary education. Upper Ferntree Gully Primary School serves local educational needs within Upper Ferntree Gully, with an enrollment of 71 students as of 2020. The school demonstrates typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1039) with balanced educational opportunities. As of 2021, the area has one primary school focusing exclusively on primary education, with secondary options available in surrounding areas. The low ratio of 1.9 school places per 100 residents suggests many local students attend schools outside the immediate area.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 15 operational transit points in Upper Ferntree Gully. These include a combination of train and bus services. There are 12 unique routes serving these stops, facilitating 3,277 weekly passenger journeys collectively.

Residential accessibility to transport is deemed good, with residents situated on average 319 metres from the nearest stop. Daily service frequency averages 468 trips across all routes, translating to roughly 218 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Upper Ferntree Gully is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a considerably higher degree among older age cohorts

Upper Ferntree Gully faces significant health challenges.

Common health conditions are somewhat prevalent across all age groups but to a higher degree among older cohorts. Approximately 54% of the total population (~1,980 people) have private health cover. The most common medical conditions are mental health issues and arthritis, affecting 10.1% and 8.9% of residents respectively. 66.7% of residents report having no medical ailments, compared to 0% across Greater Melbourne. The area has 20.6% of residents aged 65 and over (757 people). Health outcomes among seniors require more attention than the broader population.

Upper Ferntree Gully ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Upper Ferntree Gully had a cultural diversity level below average, with 80.1% of its population born in Australia, 91.1% being citizens, and 91.3% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 39.7% of people. Buddhism, however, was overrepresented at 1.2%, compared to None% across Greater Melbourne.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were English (28.8%), Australian (27.0%), and Irish (9.0%). Notably, Dutch (2.7%) Polish (1.2%) and Hungarian (0.4%) ethnicities were overrepresented compared to regional averages of None%.

Upper Ferntree Gully hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Upper Ferntree Gully's median age is 41 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and somewhat older than Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, the 55-64 age group is notably over-represented in Upper Ferntree Gully at 13.6%, while the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 10.1%. According to the 2021 Census, the 75-84 age group has increased from 5.5% to 6.9% of the population, while the 25-34 age group has decreased from 12.0% to 10.1%. Demographic modeling suggests that Upper Ferntree Gully's age profile will change significantly by 2041. The 85+ cohort is projected to grow by 105%, adding 123 residents to reach a total of 241. Residents aged 65 and older are expected to represent 95% of the population growth, while demographic aging continues. Population declines are projected for the 55-64 and 25-34 age groups.