Upper Ferntree Gully

Upper Ferntree Gully is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

As of November 2025, the estimated population of the Upper Ferntree Gully statistical area (Lv2) is around 3,580. This figure represents an increase of 163 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,417. The current resident population estimate of 3,504 by AreaSearch, following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and validation of one new address since the Census date, indicates this growth. This results in a density ratio of 1,068 persons per square kilometer, which is comparable to averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. The Upper Ferntree Gully (SA2) has experienced a population growth rate of 4.8% since the census, closely matching the SA4 region's growth rate of 4.9%. This growth was primarily driven by overseas migration, contributing approximately 52.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is using ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted via weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the Upper Ferntree Gully (SA2) is expected to increase its population by 192 persons to reach a total of 3,772 by the year 2041. This projected growth reflects an overall increase of approximately 2.7% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Upper Ferntree Gully, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data shows Upper Ferntree Gully had approximately 6 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 32 homes. As of FY-26, 6 approvals have been recorded. Between FY-21 and FY-25, an average of 0.7 people moved to the area per dwelling built. New supply has kept pace with or exceeded demand, offering ample buyer choice and creating capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts.

New properties are constructed at an average value of $550,000, indicating a focus on the premium market segment. In FY-26, there have been $12.8 million in commercial approvals, reflecting steady commercial investment activity. Building activity shows 67.0% detached dwellings and 33.0% medium and high-density housing, expanding the range of medium-density options to create a mix of opportunities across price brackets.

This shift from the area's existing housing (currently 97.0% houses) indicates decreasing availability of developable sites and reflects changing lifestyles and demand for diverse, affordable housing options. Upper Ferntree Gully has around 632 people per approval, demonstrating a mature, established area. The latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate projects an addition of 96 residents by 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Upper Ferntree Gully has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Area infrastructure changes significantly influence local performance. AreaSearch identified three projects impacting the area: Angliss Hospital Expansion, Kings Park Masterplan, Woolworths Ferntree Gully eCommerce Expansion, and Fairpark Reserve. Key details are listed below for projects of highest relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis places Upper Ferntree Gully well above average for employment performance across multiple indicators

Upper Ferntree Gully has a well-educated workforce with an unemployment rate of 2.7% as of September 2025. This is below Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%.

The area experienced employment growth of 1.2% over the past year. Key industries for residents include health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training. Construction has a particularly strong presence with an employment share 1.4 times the regional level. Conversely, finance & insurance shows lower representation at 2.9%.

The area offers limited local employment opportunities as indicated by Census data. Over the year to September 2025, employment increased by 1.2% while labour force grew by 0.9%, resulting in a unemployment rate decrease of 0.4 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 3.0%. State-level data from 25-Nov shows Victoria's employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year with an unemployment rate of 4.7%. Jobs and Skills Australia forecasts national employment to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Upper Ferntree Gully's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.7% over ten years.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ending June 2023 indicates that Upper Ferntree Gully suburb's median income is $54,943 and average income is $68,263. This contrasts with Greater Melbourne's median income of $57,688 and average income of $75,164 in the same period. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% from July 2023 to September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $59,476 (median) and $73,895 (average) by that date. Census data shows household, family, and personal incomes in Upper Ferntree Gully cluster around the 62nd percentile nationally. The earnings profile reveals that 33.6% of residents fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 income range, aligning with regional levels where this cohort represents 32.8%. Housing accounts for 13.6% of income while strong earnings rank residents within the 72nd percentile for disposable income. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Upper Ferntree Gully is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with strong rates of outright home ownership

Upper Ferntree Gully's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 97.0% houses and 3.1% other dwellings such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. Home ownership stood at 37.3%, with 48.7% of dwellings mortgaged and 14.0% rented out. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,000, while the median weekly rent was recorded at $369. Nationally, Upper Ferntree Gully's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were lower than the national figure of $375.

Upper Ferntree Gully has a typical household mix, with a median household size of 2.6 people

Family households comprise 74.9% of all households, including 36.0% couples with children, 26.6% couples without children, and 11.1% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 25.1%, with lone person households at 22.8% and group households comprising 2.2%. The median household size is 2.6 people.

The educational profile of Upper Ferntree Gully exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Upper Ferntree Gully's educational qualifications trail Greater Melbourne's regional benchmarks. Among residents aged 15+, 29.8% hold university degrees compared to Greater Melbourne's 37.0%. This gap suggests potential for educational development and skills enhancement. Bachelor degrees are the most common, held by 18.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.9%) and graduate diplomas (4.1%).

Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 37.4% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (12.5%) and certificates (24.9%). Educational participation is high, with 26.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.3% in primary education, 7.2% in secondary education, and 4.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis shows 16 active stops operating in Upper Ferntree Gully. These include a mix of train and bus services. There are 13 individual routes serving these stops, providing 3,247 weekly passenger trips in total.

Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 319 meters from the nearest stop. Service frequency averages 463 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 202 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Upper Ferntree Gully is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a considerably higher degree among older age cohorts

Upper Ferntree Gully faces significant health challenges with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across all age groups but to a higher degree among older cohorts.

The rate of private health cover is approximately 54% (1,926 people), slightly higher than the average SA2 area. Mental health issues and arthritis are the most common medical conditions, affecting 10.1% and 8.9% of residents respectively. Conversely, 66.7% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 0% in Greater Melbourne overall. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 20.6% (737 people). Health outcomes among seniors require more attention than the broader population due to presenting challenges.

Upper Ferntree Gully ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Upper Ferntree Gully, as per the census conducted on 9 August 2016, had a population with 80.1% born in Australia, 91.1% being citizens, and 91.3% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 39.7%. Buddhism, however, was overrepresented at 1.2%, compared to none across Greater Melbourne.

The top three ancestry groups were English (28.8%), Australian (27.0%), and Irish (9.0%). Notable divergences included Dutch (2.7% vs none regionally), Polish (1.2% vs none), and Hungarian (0.4% vs none).

Upper Ferntree Gully's median age exceeds the national pattern

Upper Ferntree Gully's median age is 41 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and slightly older than Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, the 55-64 age cohort is notably over-represented in Upper Ferntree Gully at 13.6%, while the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 10.1%. According to the 2021 Census, the 75-84 age group has grown from 5.5% to 6.9% of the population, while the 25-34 cohort has declined from 12.0% to 10.1%. Demographic modeling indicates that Upper Ferntree Gully's age profile will change significantly by 2041. The 85+ cohort is projected to grow by 109%, adding 125 residents to reach a total of 240. Residents aged 65 and older are expected to contribute 89% of the population growth, while demographic aging continues. Population declines are anticipated for the 55-64 and 25-34 age cohorts.