Ferntree Gully

An assessment of population growth drivers in Ferntree Gully reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of November 2025, the estimated population of the Ferntree Gully statistical area (Lv2) is around 28,669. This figure represents an increase of 1,271 people from the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 27,398. The recent resident population estimate of 28,135 by AreaSearch, following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024, and an additional 287 validated new addresses since the Census date, indicates this growth. This results in a population density ratio of 2,039 persons per square kilometer, exceeding the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The Ferntree Gully (SA2) has shown competitive growth fundamentals with a 4.6% increase since the census, positioning it within 0.3 percentage points of the SA4 region's 4.9%. Overseas migration contributed approximately 61.0% of overall population gains during recent periods in the area.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusting employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the Ferntree Gully (SA2) is anticipated to increase by 1,160 persons to reach a total population of approximately 29,829 by 2041, reflecting an overall increase of 2.0% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Ferntree Gully according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Ferntree Gully averaged around 94 new dwelling approvals per year. Between FY-21 and FY-25, an estimated 474 homes were approved, with a further 50 approved so far in FY-26. Over the past five financial years, there was an average of just 0 new residents arriving per new home, indicating that new construction is matching or outpacing demand.

The average value of new properties constructed is $489,000, demonstrating a focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties. This year, $46.1 million in commercial approvals have been registered, suggesting strong commercial development momentum. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Ferntree Gully shows approximately 75% of the construction activity per person. Nationally, it places among the 45th percentile of areas assessed, offering more limited choices for buyers and supporting demand for existing homes. This reflects the area's maturity and possible planning constraints.

Recent construction comprises 60.0% detached houses and 40.0% townhouses or apartments, indicating a shift from the area's existing housing composition (currently 88.0% houses). The location has approximately 366 people per dwelling approval, reflecting an established area. Future projections show Ferntree Gully adding 567 residents by 2041. With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Ferntree Gully has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Infrastructure changes significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 25 projects likely impacting this region. Key projects include Knoxfield Development Victoria Project, 13 Mountain Gate Drive Townhouses, Angliss Hospital Expansion, and Bluett Reserve Playground Upgrade. The following list details those expected to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Ferntree Gully has seen below average employment performance when compared to national benchmarks

Ferntree Gully has a skilled workforce with notable representation in the construction sector. Its unemployment rate was 4.9% as of September 2025, slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's 4.7%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 1.7%. There are currently 15,041 residents employed, with health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade being the key industries. Construction employment is particularly high, at 1.3 times the regional average. However, professional & technical services are under-represented, at 7.6% compared to Greater Melbourne's 10.1%.

The area offers limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by Census data on working population versus resident population. Over a 12-month period ending in September 2025, employment increased by 1.7%, labour force grew by 0.7%, and unemployment fell by 0.9 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment growth of 3.0% and labour force growth of 3.3%. State-wide, Victoria's employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year to November 25, adding 41,950 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%, slightly higher than the national rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia projects national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Ferntree Gully's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by approximately 6.4% over five years and 13.4% over ten years, assuming constant population projections for illustrative purposes.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

Ferntree Gully suburb has a median taxpayer income of $52,508 and an average income of $64,832 according to the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. This is lower than national averages, contrasting with Greater Melbourne's median income of $57,688 and average income of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $56,840 (median) and $70,181 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in Ferntree Gully rank modestly, between the 47th and 51st percentiles. Distribution data shows that 35.0% of residents (10,034 people) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 income bracket, mirroring the metropolitan region where 32.8% occupy this bracket. High housing costs consume 15.7% of income in Ferntree Gully, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 52nd percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Ferntree Gully is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Dwelling structure in Ferntree Gully, as per the 2016 Census, consisted of 88.0% houses and 11.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Melbourne metro's 83.4% houses and 16.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Ferntree Gully stood at 34.5%, similar to Melbourne metro, with mortgaged dwellings at 43.8% and rented dwellings at 21.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,918, below the Melbourne metro average of $2,000. Median weekly rent in Ferntree Gully was $386, compared to Melbourne metro's $400. Nationally, Ferntree Gully's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Ferntree Gully has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 73.3% of all households, including 34.3% couples with children, 25.0% couples without children, and 13.0% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 26.7%, with lone person households at 23.9% and group households comprising 2.7%. The median household size is 2.6 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.7.

The educational profile of Ferntree Gully exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 26.0%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common, at 17.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.7%) and graduate diplomas (2.7%). Vocational credentials are prevalent among residents aged 15 and above, with 36.1% holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (12.2%) and certificates (23.9%).

Educational participation is high, with 27.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.9% in primary education, 7.2% in secondary education, and 4.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Ferntree Gully has 138 active public transport stops, offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 19 individual routes, collectively providing 4,172 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated good, with residents typically located 262 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 596 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 30 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Ferntree Gully is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Ferntree Gully faces significant health challenges with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts.

The rate of private health cover is approximately 52% of the total population (~15,045 people), slightly higher than the average SA2 area. Mental health issues impact 9.1% of residents, while asthma affects 8.5%. About 66.7% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 69.4% across Greater Melbourne. The area has 19.1% of residents aged 65 and over (5,475 people). Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Ferntree Gully was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Ferntree Gully's population showed higher cultural diversity than most local areas, with 26.1% born overseas and 19.3% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Ferntree Gully, accounting for 42.8%. Buddhism, however, was more prevalent in Ferntree Gully at 3.0%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 4.6%.

The top three ancestry groups were English (26.4%), Australian (25.1%), and Other (8.0%). Notably, Sri Lankan, Dutch, and Hungarian ethnicities showed higher representation than regional averages: Sri Lankan at 1.0% vs 1.4%, Dutch at 2.1% vs 1.8%, and Hungarian at 0.4% vs 0.4%.

Ferntree Gully's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Ferntree Gully has a median age of 40, which is slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 years and Australia's median age of 38 years. Comparing Ferntree Gully's age distribution with the Greater Melbourne average, the 65-74 age group is notably over-represented at 10.0%, while the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 11.4%. Between 2021 and present, the 75-84 age group has increased from 5.7% to 6.9% of the population, while the 25-34 age group has decreased from 13.3% to 11.4%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Ferntree Gully's age profile will significantly change. The 75-84 age cohort is projected to grow by 640 people (32%), increasing from 1,978 to 2,619. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups are expected to account for 74% of total population growth, reflecting Ferntree Gully's aging demographic profile. Meanwhile, the 25-34 and 15-24 age cohorts are projected to experience population declines.