Ferntree Gully

An assessment of population growth drivers in Ferntree Gully reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, the suburb of Ferntree Gully's population is estimated at around 28,670 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 1,272 people (4.6%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 27,398 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 28,135 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 291 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 2,039 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Ferntree Gully's 4.6% growth since census positions it within 0.3 percentage points of the SA4 region (4.9%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 61.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Anticipating future population dynamics, lower quartile growth of national statistical areas is anticipated, with the area expected to increase by 1,172 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 2.0% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Ferntree Gully according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Ferntree Gully has averaged approximately 94 new dwelling approvals per year. Between FY-21 and FY-25, around 474 homes were approved, with an additional 50 approved so far in FY-26. The average number of new residents arriving per new home over the past five financial years is zero.

This indicates that new construction is matching or outpacing demand, offering buyers more options and potentially enabling population growth to exceed current expectations. New properties are being constructed at an average value of $489,000, demonstrating a focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties. In FY-26 alone, $46.1 million in commercial approvals have been registered, indicating strong commercial development momentum. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Ferntree Gully shows approximately 75% of the construction activity per person. Nationally, it places among the 45th percentile of areas assessed, suggesting more limited choices for buyers and supporting demand for existing homes.

This is below average nationally, reflecting the area's maturity and possible planning constraints. Recent construction comprises 60.0% detached houses and 40.0% townhouses or apartments, indicating an increasing blend of attached housing types offering choices across price ranges. This represents a notable shift from the area's existing housing composition, which is currently 88.0% houses. This change suggests decreasing availability of developable sites and reflects changing lifestyles and the need for more diverse, affordable housing options. Ferntree Gully has approximately 366 people per dwelling approval, reflecting an established area. Future projections show Ferntree Gully adding 574 residents by 2041, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Ferntree Gully has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 25 projects likely affecting the region. Notable projects include Knoxfield Development Victoria Project, 13 Mountain Gate Drive Townhouses, Angliss Hospital Expansion, and Bluett Reserve Playground Upgrade. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Ferntree Gully has seen below average employment performance when compared to national benchmarks

Ferntree Gully has a skilled workforce with notable representation in the construction sector. The unemployment rate was 4.9% as of September 2025, with an estimated employment growth of 1.6% over the past year. There were 15,040 residents in work at this time, with an unemployment rate of 0.2% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%.

Workforce participation was lower at 67.3%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 71.0%. A significant 26.0% of residents worked from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. The key industries for employment among residents were health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Construction stood out with employment levels at 1.3 times the regional average.

However, professional & technical services were under-represented, with only 7.6% of Ferntree Gully's workforce compared to Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. The area appeared to offer limited local employment opportunities based on Census data. Over a 12-month period ending in September 2025, employment increased by 1.6%, while the labour force grew by 0.7%, leading to a decrease in unemployment of 0.9 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced higher growth rates for employment and labour force, with a smaller reduction in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that national employment is expected to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Ferntree Gully's employment mix indicates potential local employment growth of 6.4% over five years and 13.4% over ten years, although these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes only and do not account for localized population projections.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

Ferntree Gully suburb has a median taxpayer income of $52,508 and an average of $64,832 based on the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. This is lower than national averages, with Greater Melbourne's median income being $57,688 and average income being $75,164. Using Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes for September 2025 would be approximately $56,840 (median) and $70,181 (average). Census data from 2021 shows household, family, and personal incomes in Ferntree Gully rank modestly, between the 47th and 51st percentiles. Income distribution reveals that 35.0% of residents (10,034 people) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket, similar to the metropolitan region where 32.8% occupy this bracket. High housing costs consume 15.7% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 52nd percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Ferntree Gully is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Ferntree Gully's dwellings, as per the latest Census, consisted of 88.0% houses and 11.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Ferntree Gully stood at 34.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 43.8% and rented ones at 21.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,918, below Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. The median weekly rent in Ferntree Gully was $386, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Ferntree Gully's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Ferntree Gully has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 73.3% of all households, including 34.3% couples with children, 25.0% couples without children, and 13.0% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 26.7%, with lone person households at 23.9% and group households making up 2.7%. The median household size is 2.6 people, aligning with the Greater Melbourne average.

The educational profile of Ferntree Gully exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 26.0%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 17.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.7%) and graduate diplomas (2.7%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 36.1% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas at 12.2% and certificates at 23.9%.

Educational participation is high, with 27.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.9% in primary education, 7.2% in secondary education, and 4.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Ferntree Gully has 137 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 19 different routes that together facilitate 4,172 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents on average living 262 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to its residential nature. Cars remain the primary mode of transportation, used by 90% of residents. On average, there are 1.5 vehicles per dwelling, higher than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 26.0% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency across all routes averages 596 trips per day, equating to approximately 30 weekly trips per stop. The map provided displays the 100 nearest stops to the location's centrepoint.

Health outcomes in Ferntree Gully are marginally below the national average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Ferntree Gully shows below-average health outcomes based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts.

The area has approximately 52% private health cover, compared to Greater Melbourne's 56.7%. Mental health issues impact 9.1% of residents, while asthma affects 8.5%. About 66.7% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents have an above-average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 19.6% of residents aged 65 and over (5,619 people), higher than Greater Melbourne's 15.1%. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Ferntree Gully was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Ferntree Gully's population, born overseas, was 26.1%. Speaking a language other than English at home was 19.3%. Christianity was the main religion, with 42.8% of people adhering to it.

Buddhism comprised 3.0%, higher than Greater Melbourne's 4.2%. The top three ancestral groups were English (26.4%), Australian (25.1%), and Other (8.0%). Notably, Sri Lankan ancestry was overrepresented at 1.0% compared to the regional average of 0.8%. Dutch ancestry was also higher at 2.1%, versus 1.2% regionally. Hungarian ancestry showed a slight increase to 0.4% from the regional average of 0.3%.

Ferntree Gully's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Ferntree Gully has a median age of 40, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and Australia's figure of 38 years. Compared to the Greater Melbourne average, Ferntree Gully has an over-representation of the 55-64 cohort (12.4%) and an under-representation of the 25-34 age group (11.0%). Between 2021 and present, the 75 to 84 age group has increased from 5.7% to 7.2% of the population, while the 25 to 34 cohort has decreased from 13.3% to 11.0%. By 2041, Ferntree Gully's age profile is projected to change significantly. The 85+ age group is expected to grow by 571 people (an increase of 83%) from 688 to 1,260. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups are projected to account for 72% of total population growth. Meanwhile, the 0-4 and 15-24 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.