Ferntree Gully

An assessment of population growth drivers in Ferntree Gully reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of May 2026, the population of the suburb of Ferntree Gully is estimated to be around 28,311 people. This is an increase of 913 individuals since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 27,398. The current resident population estimate of 28,273, validated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025, includes an additional 297 new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 2,013 persons per square kilometer, which is higher than the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Ferntree Gully's growth rate of 3.3% since the 2021 census exceeds that of the SA3 area at 3.1%, positioning it as a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 61.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, driving primary growth for the suburb.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and utilising VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 for areas not covered by this data, with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future projections anticipate a population increase just below the median of statistical areas across the nation, with the suburb expected to increase by 1,152 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an overall increase of 3.9% over the 16-year period.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Ferntree Gully recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Ferntree Gully has averaged 94 new dwelling approvals per year. Between FY-21 and FY-25, an estimated 474 homes were approved, with a further 62 approved in FY-26. On average, 0.3 new residents arrive per new home annually over the past five financial years.

This indicates that new construction is meeting or exceeding demand, providing more options for buyers and potentially driving population growth beyond current expectations. The average value of new properties constructed is $489,000, suggesting a focus on premium segment development. In FY-26, $46.1 million in commercial approvals have been registered, indicating strong commercial development momentum. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Ferntree Gully shows approximately 75% of the construction activity per person and ranks among the 45th percentile nationally. This suggests more limited choices for buyers, supporting demand for existing homes.

Recent construction comprises 60.0% detached houses and 40.0% townhouses or apartments, marking a shift from the area's existing housing composition (currently 88.0% houses). This may reflect decreasing availability of developable sites and changing lifestyles requiring more diverse housing options. Ferntree Gully has approximately 367 people per dwelling approval, indicating an established area. Future projections estimate an addition of 1,114 residents by 2041. With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Ferntree Gully has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Infrastructure changes significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 25 projects likely impacting the region. Notable initiatives include Knoxfield Development Victoria Project, 13 Mountain Gate Drive Townhouses, Angliss Hospital Expansion, and Bluett Reserve Playground Upgrade. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Ferntree Gully has seen below average employment performance when compared to national benchmarks

Ferntree Gully has a skilled workforce with notable representation in the construction sector. As of December 2025, its unemployment rate was 5.1%, with an estimated employment growth of 2.2% over the past year. This is based on AreaSearch aggregation of statistical area data.

In Ferntree Gully, 15,113 residents were employed in December 2025, with an unemployment rate of 0.4% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%. Workforce participation was lower at 67.3%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 69.9%. A significant 26.0% of residents worked from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Key industries for employment among residents were health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade.

Construction stood out with employment levels at 1.3 times the regional average. Conversely, professional & technical services were under-represented at 7.6%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 10.1%. Employment opportunities locally appeared limited, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Over a 12-month period ending December 2025, employment increased by 2.2% while labour force grew by 1.5%, leading to a unemployment rate decrease of 0.6 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment growth of 2.4% and labour force growth of 2.8%, with a slight unemployment increase of 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Ferntree Gully's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.4% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes only.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

Ferntree Gully suburb has a median taxpayer income of $52,508 and an average income of $64,832, based on latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. This is lower than national averages, compared to Greater Melbourne's median income of $57,688 and average income of $75,164. By March 2026, estimated incomes would be approximately $57,559 (median) and $71,069 (average), adjusting for Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since financial year 2023. According to the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in Ferntree Gully rank modestly, between the 47th and 51st percentiles. Income distribution shows that 35.0% of residents (9,908 people) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket, similar to the metropolitan region where 32.8% occupy this bracket. Residents spend 15.7% of their income on housing costs, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 52nd percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Ferntree Gully is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Ferntree Gully's dwelling structure in its latest Census comprised 88.0% houses and 11.9% other dwellings. In comparison, Melbourne metro had 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Ferntree Gully was at 34.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 43.8% and rented ones at 21.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,918, lower than Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. Median weekly rent in Ferntree Gully was $386, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Ferntree Gully's mortgage repayments were higher at $1,918 versus the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were also higher at $386 compared to the national figure of $375.

Ferntree Gully has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 73.3% of all households, including 34.3% couples with children, 25.0% couples without children, and 13.0% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 26.7%, with lone person households at 23.9% and group households making up 2.7%. The median household size is 2.6 people, which aligns with the Greater Melbourne average.

The educational profile of Ferntree Gully exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 26.0%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 17.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.7%) and graduate diplomas (2.7%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 36.1% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (12.2%) and certificates (23.9%). Educational participation is high, with 27.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 8.9% in primary education, 7.2% in secondary education, and 4.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Ferntree Gully has 137 active public transport stops operating within its boundaries. These stops are served by 19 different bus routes, which together facilitate 4,172 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 262 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward daily due to Ferntree Gully's primarily residential nature. Cars remain the dominant mode of transport for these residents at a rate of 90%. On average, there are 1.5 vehicles per dwelling in the area, which is higher than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 26% of Ferntree Gully's residents work from home, possibly due to COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency across all routes averages 596 trips per day, equating to approximately 30 weekly trips per individual stop. A map accompanies this analysis, displaying the 100 nearest stops to the location's centrepoint.

Health outcomes in Ferntree Gully are marginally below the national average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Ferntree Gully's health indicators show below-average outcomes based on AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts.

Private health cover is approximately 52% of the total population (~14,857 people), leading the average SA2 area but trailing Greater Melbourne's 56.7%. Mental health issues impact 9.1% of residents, while asthma affects 8.5%. About 66.7% declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents have an above-average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 19.4% of residents aged 65 and over (5,492 people), higher than Greater Melbourne's 15.0%. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Ferntree Gully was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Ferntree Gully had a higher cultural diversity compared to most local areas, with 26.1% of its residents born overseas and 19.3% speaking languages other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Ferntree Gully, accounting for 42.8% of the population. However, Buddhism showed an overrepresentation at 3.0%, compared to Greater Melbourne's average of 4.2%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were English (26.4%), Australian (25.1%), and Other (8.0%). Notably, Sri Lankan (1.0%) and Dutch (2.1%) groups were overrepresented in Ferntree Gully compared to regional averages of 0.8% and 1.2%, respectively. Hungarian ancestry was also slightly higher at 0.4%.

Ferntree Gully's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Ferntree Gully has a median age of 40, which is slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and Australia's median age of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Ferntree Gully has an over-representation of the 55-64 age cohort (12.3% locally) and an under-representation of the 25-34 age group (11.6%). Between 2021 and now, the 75 to 84 age group has increased from 5.7% to 7.0% of the population, while the 25 to 34 cohort has decreased from 13.3% to 11.6%. By 2041, Ferntree Gully's age profile is projected to change significantly. The 85+ age group is expected to grow by 597 people (an 81% increase) from 736 to 1,334. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 66% of total population growth. Meanwhile, the 15-24 and 0-4 age cohorts are expected to experience population declines.