Ferntree Gully

An assessment of population growth drivers in Ferntree Gully reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

The suburb of Ferntree Gully's population is estimated at around 28,407 as of November 2025. This reflects an increase of 1,009 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 27,398 people. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate of 28,185 based on the latest ABS ERP data release (June 2024) and an additional 287 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 2,020 persons per square kilometer. Ferntree Gully's growth rate of 3.7% since the census is within 0.3 percentage points of the SA4 region (4.0%). Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration contributing approximately 61.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered, AreaSearch uses VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 with adjustments made employing weighted aggregation methods. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Anticipating future population dynamics, the suburb is expected to increase by 1,155 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an overall increase of 2.9% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Ferntree Gully according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Ferntree Gully has averaged approximately 95 new dwelling approvals per year. Between FY-21 and FY-25, about 476 homes were approved, with another 32 approved so far in FY-26. The average number of new residents arriving per new home over the past five financial years is around zero.

This indicates that new construction is meeting or exceeding demand, providing more options for buyers and potentially supporting population growth beyond current expectations. The average construction value of new properties is approximately $489,000. In FY-26 alone, there have been $52.4 million in commercial approvals, demonstrating high levels of local commercial activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Ferntree Gully shows about 75% of the construction activity per person. Nationally, it ranks at the 46th percentile among assessed areas, suggesting more limited choices for buyers and supporting demand for existing dwellings.

This level is below average nationally, reflecting the area's maturity and possible planning constraints. Recent construction in Ferntree Gully comprises approximately 60.0% detached houses and 40.0% attached dwellings, with a growing mix of townhouses and apartments. This shift from the area's existing housing (currently 88.0% houses) indicates decreasing availability of developable sites and reflects changing lifestyles and demand for more diverse, affordable housing options. Ferntree Gully has about 354 people per dwelling approval, reflecting an established area. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, the location is expected to grow by approximately 824 residents through to 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Ferntree Gully has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified a total of 25 projects likely to impact the region. Key initiatives include Knoxfield Development Victoria Project, 13 Mountain Gate Drive Townhouses, Angliss Hospital Expansion, and Bluett Reserve Playground Upgrade. The following list details those most relevant:.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Ferntree Gully remain below the national average according to AreaSearch analysis

Ferntree Gully has a skilled workforce with the construction sector being notably prominent. Its unemployment rate was 4.8% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 1.2%.

As of June 2025, 15,096 residents are employed, and the unemployment rate is 0.2% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation is similar to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. The leading employment industries among residents are health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Ferntree Gully shows a strong specialization in construction, with an employment share 1.3 times the regional level, but professional & technical services are under-represented at 7.6% compared to Greater Melbourne's 10.1%.

The area offers limited local employment opportunities as indicated by the Census working population vs resident population count. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment increased by 1.2% while labour force grew by 0.6%, reducing the unemployment rate by 0.5 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 3.5% and labour force growth of 4.0%, with a 0.5 percentage point rise in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project national employment expansion at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates vary significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Ferntree Gully's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.4% over ten years.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch reports median taxpayer income in Ferntree Gully was $52,504 in financial year 2022. Average income stood at $64,824. Nationally, it was approximately average with Melbourne's levels being $54,892 and $73,761 respectively. By September 2025, estimates suggest median income will be around $58,888 and average $72,707, accounting for a 12.16% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2022. Census data shows Ferntree Gully's household, family, and personal incomes rank modestly, between the 47th and 51st percentiles. The predominant income bracket is $1,500 - 2,999, with 35.0% of locals (9,942 people) falling into this category, similar to the regional average of 32.8%. Housing costs consume 15.7% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 52nd percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Ferntree Gully is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Ferntree Gully's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, had 88.0% houses and 11.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Melbourne metro's 83.4% houses and 16.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Ferntree Gully was 34.5%, similar to Melbourne metro, with the rest being mortgaged (43.8%) or rented (21.7%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,918, lower than Melbourne metro's $2,000, and the median weekly rent was $386, compared to Melbourne metro's $400. Nationally, Ferntree Gully's mortgage repayments were higher at $1,918 versus Australia's average of $1,863, while rents were also higher at $386 compared to the national figure of $375.

Ferntree Gully has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 73.3% of all households, including 34.3% couples with children, 25.0% couples without children, and 13.0% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 26.7%, with lone person households at 23.9% and group households making up 2.7%. The median household size is 2.6 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.7.

The educational profile of Ferntree Gully exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Ferntree Gully has lower university qualification rates than Greater Melbourne, with 26.0% compared to the average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 17.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.7%) and graduate diplomas (2.7%). Vocational credentials are held by 36.1% of residents aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 12.2% and certificates at 23.9%. Educational participation is high, with 27.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education: 8.9% in primary, 7.2% in secondary, and 4.7% in tertiary education.

Ferntree Gully has a network of 10 schools educating approximately 3,241 students, with typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1033) and balanced educational opportunities. This includes 6 primary, 2 secondary, and 2 K-12 schools.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis shows that Ferntree Gully has 137 active public transport stops. These are a mix of train stations and bus stops, served by 19 different routes. Together, these routes provide 4,210 weekly passenger trips.

The accessibility of transport in the area is rated as good, with residents on average located 263 meters from their nearest stop. On average, there are 601 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 30 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Ferntree Gully is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Ferntree Gully faces significant health challenges, with common health conditions prevalent among both younger and older age cohorts.

The rate of private health cover is approximately 52% of the total population (~14,907 people), slightly higher than the average SA2 area. Mental health issues affect 9.1% of residents, while asthma impacts 8.5%. A total of 66.7% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 69.4% across Greater Melbourne. The area has 19.1% of residents aged 65 and over (5,425 people). Health outcomes among seniors present challenges broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

Ferntree Gully was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Ferntree Gully, as of the 2016 Census, had a higher cultural diversity than most local areas with 26.1% of its population born overseas and 19.3% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Ferntree Gully, making up 42.8% of people. However, Buddhism was overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne, comprising 3.0% versus 4.6%.

The top three ancestry groups were English (26.4%), Australian (25.1%), and Other (8.0%). Some ethnic groups showed notable differences: Sri Lankan at 1.0% (versus 1.4% regionally), Dutch at 2.1% (versus 1.8%), and Hungarian at 0.4% (versus 0.4%).

Ferntree Gully's median age exceeds the national pattern

Ferntree Gully has a median age of 40, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 years and marginally higher than Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to the Greater Melbourne average, Ferntree Gully has an over-representation of the 65-74 age cohort (10.0% locally) and an under-representation of the 25-34 year-olds (11.4%). Between 2021 and present, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 5.7% to 6.9% of the population, while the 25 to 34 cohort has declined from 13.3% to 11.4%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Ferntree Gully's age profile will significantly evolve. The 75 to 84 age cohort is projected to expand by 659 people (34%), growing from 1,960 to 2,620. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups are expected to account for 72% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. Meanwhile, the 25 to 34 and 15 to 24 cohorts are anticipated to experience population declines.