Ferntree Gully

An assessment of population growth drivers in Ferntree Gully reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Feb 2026, the estimated population of Ferntree Gully is around 28,670, reflecting an increase of 1,272 people since the 2021 Census. This growth represents a 4.6% rise from the previous population count of 27,398. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 28,135 following examination of ABS's latest ERP data release in June 2024 and an additional 291 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 2,039 persons per square kilometer, which is above the national average according to AreaSearch assessments. Ferntree Gully's growth rate of 4.6% since the census places it within 0.3 percentage points of its SA4 region (4.9%), indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 61.0% of overall population gains during recent periods in the suburb.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted using a method of weighted aggregation from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the suburb is expected to increase by 1,181 persons to 2041, reflecting a total increase of 2.2% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Ferntree Gully according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Ferntree Gully averaged approximately 94 new dwelling approvals annually based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers. Between FY-21 and FY-25, an estimated 474 homes were approved, with a further 53 approved in FY-26 to date. This averages out to roughly 0 new residents per year arriving per new home over the past five financial years.

The construction pace matches or exceeds demand, providing more options for buyers and potentially driving population growth beyond current expectations. The average expected construction cost value of these properties is $489,000, indicating a focus on the premium segment. In FY-26, $46.1 million in commercial approvals have been registered, suggesting strong commercial development momentum. Comparing Ferntree Gully to Greater Melbourne, it shows around 75% of the construction activity per person and ranks among the 45th percentile nationally, offering limited choices for buyers but supporting demand for existing homes. The recent construction composition is 60.0% detached houses and 40.0% townhouses or apartments, marking a shift from the area's current housing profile (88.0% houses).

This increase in attached housing types caters to diverse price ranges, from spacious family homes to more affordable compact options. The location has approximately 366 people per dwelling approval, reflecting an established area. Future projections estimate Ferntree Gully will add 646 residents by 2041, with current construction levels expected to meet housing demand adequately and create favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth beyond current forecasts.

Ferntree Gully has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Area performance is significantly influenced by local infrastructure changes. AreaSearch has identified 25 projects likely impacting the area. Notable projects include Knoxfield Development Victoria Project, 13 Mountain Gate Drive Townhouses, Angliss Hospital Expansion, and Bluett Reserve Playground Upgrade. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Ferntree Gully has seen below average employment performance when compared to national benchmarks

Ferntree Gully has a skilled workforce with notable representation in the construction sector. The unemployment rate was 5.1% as of December 2025, which is 0.4% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 2.2%.

As of December 2025, 15,077 residents were in work and workforce participation was 67.4%, somewhat below Greater Melbourne's 71.3%. A high proportion of residents, 26.0%, worked from home according to Census responses, which may have been influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Key industries for employment among residents are health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Construction is particularly notable with employment levels at 1.3 times the regional average.

However, professional & technical services are under-represented, with only 7.6% of Ferntree Gully's workforce compared to 10.1% in Greater Melbourne. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities as indicated by Census data on working population versus resident population. Over the 12 months ending December 2025, employment increased by 2.2% while labour force increased by 1.5%, leading to a decrease in unemployment of 0.6 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment growth of 2.4% and labour force growth of 2.8%, with an increase in unemployment of 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that Ferntree Gully's employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.4% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation of industry-specific projections.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

The suburb of Ferntree Gully had a median taxpayer income of $52,508 and an average of $64,832 in the financial year 2023, according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. This is lower than national averages, with Greater Melbourne's median income being $57,688 and average income being $75,164. By September 2025, estimates based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% suggest the median income will be approximately $56,840 and the average will be around $70,181. The 2021 Census places Ferntree Gully's household, family, and personal incomes modestly, between the 47th and 51st percentiles. Income distribution shows that 35.0% of residents (10,034 people) fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket, slightly higher than the metropolitan region's 32.8%. Residents spend 15.7% of their income on housing costs, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 52nd percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Ferntree Gully is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Ferntree Gully's dwellings, as per the latest Census, consisted of 88.0% houses and 11.9% other dwellings. In contrast, Melbourne metro had 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Ferntree Gully was 34.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 43.8% and rented ones at 21.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,918, lower than Melbourne metro's $2,000. Median weekly rent in Ferntree Gully was $386, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Ferntree Gully's mortgage repayments were higher at $1,918 versus Australia's average of $1,863, while rents were also higher at $386 compared to the national figure of $375.

Ferntree Gully has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 73.3% of all households, consisting of 34.3% couples with children, 25.0% couples without children, and 13.0% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 26.7%, with lone person households at 23.9% and group households comprising 2.7% of the total. The median household size is 2.6 people, which aligns with the Greater Melbourne average.

The educational profile of Ferntree Gully exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 26.0%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 17.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.7%) and graduate diplomas (2.7%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 36.1% of residents aged 15 and above holding them, including advanced diplomas (12.2%) and certificates (23.9%). Educational participation is high, with 27.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, comprising 8.9% in primary, 7.2% in secondary, and 4.7% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 27.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.9% in primary education, 7.2% in secondary education, and 4.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Ferntree Gully has 137 active public transport stops serving buses. These are covered by 19 routes offering 4,172 weekly passenger trips in total. Residents have good accessibility to these stops, with an average distance of 262 meters to the nearest one. Most residents commute outward daily due to its residential nature. Cars remain the primary mode of transport, used by 90% of residents. Vehicle ownership is high at 1.5 per dwelling.

According to the 2021 Census, 26.0% of residents work from home, which might be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency averages 596 trips per day across all routes, equating to around 30 weekly trips per stop on average. A map accompanies this data, displaying the 100 nearest stops to the location's centrepoint.

Health outcomes in Ferntree Gully are marginally below the national average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Ferntree Gully's health indicators show below-average outcomes based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts.

Private health cover is at approximately 52% of the total population (~15,046 people), leading that of the average SA2 area but lower than Greater Melbourne's 56.7%. The most common medical conditions are mental health issues (9.1%) and asthma (8.5%). 66.7% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents show above average prevalence of chronic health conditions. Ferntree Gully has 19.9% of residents aged 65 and over (5,705 people), higher than Greater Melbourne's 15.1%. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Ferntree Gully was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Ferntree Gully, as per the Census conducted on 9 August 2016, exhibited higher cultural diversity compared to most local areas, with 26.1% of its population born overseas and 19.3% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Ferntree Gully, accounting for 42.8% of the population. However, Buddhism showed an overrepresentation in Ferntree Gully, comprising 3.0% compared to Greater Melbourne's 4.2%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were English (26.4%), Australian (25.1%), and Other (8.0%). Notably, English and Australian ancestry were substantially higher than regional averages of 20.1% and 18.4%, respectively, while Other was notably lower at 14.6%. Additionally, certain ethnic groups showed notable divergences: Sri Lankan (1.0%), Dutch (2.1%), and Hungarian (0.4%) were overrepresented compared to regional averages of 0.8%, 1.2%, and 0.3%, respectively.

Ferntree Gully's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Ferntree Gully has a median age of 40, which is slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and Australia's figure of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, the 65-74 age cohort is notably over-represented in Ferntree Gully at 10.1%, while the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 11.0%. Between 2021 and present, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 5.7% to 7.3% of the population, while the 25 to 34 cohort has declined from 13.3% to 11.0%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Ferntree Gully's age profile will change significantly. The 85+ age cohort is projected to grow by 572 people (an 80% increase) from 716 to 1,289. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups are expected to account for 70% of total population growth, reflecting Ferntree Gully's aging demographic profile. Meanwhile, the 15 to 24 and 0 to 4 age cohorts are expected to experience population declines.