Wantirna South

Population growth drivers in Wantirna South are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of Nov 2025, the Wantirna South statistical area's population is estimated at around 21,544 people. This reflects a growth of 790 individuals since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 20,754. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of 21,226 residents following examination of ABS's latest ERP data release (June 2024), along with an additional 319 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1,523 persons per square kilometer, higher than the national average assessed by AreaSearch. The area's growth rate of 3.8% since the census is close to that of its SA4 region (4.9%), indicating strong fundamentals for growth. Overseas migration was primarily responsible for this population increase during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024, with a base year of 2022, for each SA2 area. For areas not covered by this data, it utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusting using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, the Wantirna South (SA2) is projected to increase by 1,782 persons, reflecting a total growth of 6.6% over the seventeen-year period.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Wantirna South recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Wantirna South has seen approximately 99 new homes approved annually based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers. Between FY-21 and FY-25, around 497 homes were approved, with a further 55 approved in FY-26 so far. The population decline over recent years suggests that new supply has likely been meeting demand, providing good options for buyers.

The average construction cost value of new properties is $611,000, indicating a focus on the premium market. In FY-26, $63.8 million in commercial approvals have been registered, suggesting strong local business investment. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Wantirna South has similar development levels per person, maintaining market equilibrium with surrounding areas. The new building activity comprises 38.0% detached houses and 62.0% medium and high-density housing, offering affordable entry pathways and attracting downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. This shift from the area's existing housing (78.0% houses) reflects decreasing developable sites and changing lifestyles.

With around 255 people per dwelling approval, Wantirna South exhibits low density characteristics. Population forecasts indicate an increase of 1,413 residents by 2041, with current development patterns suggesting new housing supply should meet demand, potentially facilitating population growth beyond projections.

Wantirna South has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 33 projects likely to impact the area. Notable projects include Heart of Knox Project, Waverley One Estate, Knox Off the Plan Developments, and Knoxfield Residential Development. The following list details those expected to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis indicates Wantirna South maintains employment conditions that align with national benchmarks

Wantirna South has a highly educated workforce with professional services well represented. Its unemployment rate is 3.5% and it experienced an estimated employment growth of 0.8% in the past year (AreaSearch).

As of September 2025, there are 11,150 residents employed with an unemployment rate of 1.2% lower than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%. Workforce participation is slightly below average at 61.6%. The leading employment industries are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and professional & technical services. Wholesale trade shows strong specialization with an employment share 1.6 times the regional level, while transport, postal & warehousing has lower representation at 3.2% compared to the regional average of 5.2%.

Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data. Over the year to September 2025, employment increased by 0.8% and labour force by 0.9%, with unemployment remaining stable (AreaSearch). In comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded higher growth rates. State-level data from November 2025 shows Victoria's employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%. National forecasts suggest total employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years (Jobs and Skills Australia). Applying these projections to Wantirna South's employment mix indicates local employment should increase by approximately 6.7% over five years and 13.8% over ten years, assuming constant population projections.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows that Wantirna South's median income is $51,536 and average income is $65,609. This contrasts with Greater Melbourne's median income of $57,688 and average income of $75,164. By September 2025, estimates suggest the median income will be approximately $55,788 and average income $71,022, based on an 8.25% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2023. Census 2021 data indicates household income ranks at the 60th percentile ($1,915 weekly) and personal income at the 38th percentile. Income brackets show that 31.5% of individuals earn between $1,500 - 2,999 annually (6,786 individuals), similar to Melbourne's metropolitan region where this group represents 32.8%. High housing costs consume 15.2% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 61st percentile. Wantirna South's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Wantirna South is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Wantirna South's dwellings, as per the latest Census (2016), consisted of 77.7% houses and 22.3% other dwellings. This compares to Melbourne metro's 83.4% houses and 16.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Wantirna South was 39.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 38.2% and rented ones at 22.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,167, exceeding Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. Median weekly rent in Wantirna South was $441, higher than Melbourne metro's $400. Nationally, Wantirna South's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Wantirna South features high concentrations of family households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 77.8% of all households, including 41.3% couples with children, 25.2% couples without children, and 10.3% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 22.2%, with lone person households at 20.0% and group households comprising 2.1%. The median household size is 2.7 people, which aligns with the Greater Melbourne average.

Wantirna South shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's educational profile is notable regionally with university qualification rates at 39.4% of residents aged 15+, surpassing the Australian average of 30.4% and the SA3 area rate of 30.7%. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 25.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (10.8%) and graduate diplomas (3.0%). Trade and technical skills are prominent with 25.9% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (11.2%) and certificates (14.7%).

Educational participation is high at 27.4%, comprising primary education (8.4%), secondary education (7.2%), and tertiary education (6.2%).

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Wantirna South indicates that there are 132 active transport stops currently operating. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, totaling 29 individual routes. The combined weekly passenger trips facilitated by these routes amount to 6,992.

Residents have excellent accessibility to transport, with an average distance of 185 meters to the nearest stop. On average, there are 998 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 52 weekly trips per individual stop.

Wantirna South's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data shows Wantirna South residents have relatively positive health outcomes.

The prevalence of common health conditions is low across both younger and older age groups. Private health cover rate is approximately 53%, slightly higher than the average SA2 area (~11,370 people). The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (7.0%) and asthma (6.8%). A total of 71.4% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 69.4% in Greater Melbourne. Wantirna South has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over (23.4%, or 5,041 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 19.5%. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors are above average and align with the general population's health profile.

Wantirna South is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Wantirna South has high cultural diversity, with 45.1% speaking a language other than English at home and 47.2% born overseas. Christianity is the main religion, comprising 48.0%. Buddhism is overrepresented at 6.6%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 4.6%.

Top ancestry groups are Chinese (23.4%), English (18.0%), and Australian (15.7%). Sri Lankan (1.9%), Korean (0.8%), and Indian (5.2%) groups are notably overrepresented in Wantirna South compared to regional averages of 1.4%, 0.5%, and 3.3% respectively.

Wantirna South's median age exceeds the national pattern

The median age in Wantirna South is 42 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and Australia's national average of 38 years. The 65-74 age group constitutes 12.3% of the population, compared to Greater Melbourne, while the 25-34 cohort makes up 10.5%. Post-2021 Census data shows that the 15 to 24 age group has increased from 12.2% to 13.5%, and the 75 to 84 cohort has risen from 6.4% to 7.6%. Conversely, the 25 to 34 cohort has decreased from 11.8% to 10.5%, and the 55 to 64 group has dropped from 13.1% to 11.8%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes in Wantirna South, with the 75 to 84 age group projected to grow by 48% (786 people), reaching 2,424 from 1,637. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 70% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, the 0 to 4 and 5 to 14 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.