Vermont South

An assessment of population growth drivers in Vermont South reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Vermont South's population is approximately 12,250 as of May 2026. This shows an increase of 296 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 11,954. The change is inferred from ABS estimates: 12,250 in June 2025 and 73 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 1,982 persons per square kilometer, higher than national averages assessed by AreaSearch. Vermont South's growth rate of 2.5% since census is within 1.3 percentage points of its SA4 region (3.8%), indicating strong growth fundamentals. Overseas migration was the primary driver of population gains recently.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on projected demographic shifts, Vermont South is expected to increase by approximately 987 persons to 2041, reflecting an overall increase of around 8.1% over the 16-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Vermont South, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Vermont South has recorded approximately 34 residential properties granted approval annually over the past five financial years, totalling 172 homes. As of FY-26, 13 approvals have been recorded. The average construction cost value for new homes is $485,000, indicating a focus on premium market segments with higher-end properties. In FY-26, $14.2 million in commercial approvals have been registered, suggesting moderate levels of commercial development.

Compared to Greater Melbourne, Vermont South records around three-quarters the building activity per person and ranks among the 41st percentile nationally, resulting in relatively constrained buyer choice and supporting interest in existing dwellings. This is reflective of the area's maturity and possible planning constraints. New building activity comprises 41.0% standalone homes and 59.0% townhouses or apartments, creating more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. The current housing mix consists of 88.0% houses, reflecting reduced availability of development sites and addressing shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. Vermont South has approximately 416 people per dwelling approval, indicating an established area. Population forecasts suggest the location will gain 987 residents by 2041.

Present construction rates appear balanced with future demand, fostering steady market conditions without excessive price pressure.

Vermont South has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 39thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 14 projects potentially impacting the region. Notable initiatives include 289-291 Morack Road Townhouses, Billabong Park Master Plan, Oak Place by Stockland, and Tyrol Park Draft Landscape Concept Plan, with the following list detailing those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis places Vermont South well above average for employment performance across multiple indicators

Vermont South has a highly educated workforce with professional services being well-represented. The unemployment rate was 2.3% in the year ending December 2025. Employment growth over this period was estimated at 1.4%.

As of December 2025, 6,208 residents were employed and the unemployment rate was 2.5% lower than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%. Workforce participation in Vermont South was 59.6%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's 69.9%. According to Census responses, 36.7% of residents worked from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns.

The key industries for employment among residents were health care & social assistance, professional & technical services, and retail trade. Construction had a limited presence with 7.5% employment compared to the regional average of 9.7%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited as indicated by the difference between Census working population and resident population. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment levels increased by 1.4%, labour force grew by 1.6%, leading to a slight rise in unemployment of 0.1 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 2.4% and labour force growth of 2.8%, with unemployment rising by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates vary significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Vermont South's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.8% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes and do not account for localized population projections.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

Vermont South SA2 had a median taxpayer income of $50,382 and an average income of $67,530 in financial year 2023. These figures align with national averages and compare to $57,688 and $75,164 respectively across Greater Melbourne. By March 2026, estimates suggest median taxpayer income will be approximately $55,229 and average income $74,026, based on a 9.62% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2023. According to the 2021 Census, household income ranks at the 62nd percentile ($1,944 weekly), while personal income is at the 31st percentile. In Vermont South SA2, 28.3% of individuals (3,466 people) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 income range, reflecting a pattern seen in the surrounding region where 32.8% occupy this range. Economic strength is evident with 30.4% of households earning over $3,000 weekly, supporting high consumer spending. After housing costs, 86.5% of income remains for other expenses. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Vermont South is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Vermont South's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 88.3% houses and 11.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), contrasting with Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Vermont South stood at 50.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 34.7% and rented ones at 14.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,383, exceeding Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. The median weekly rent in Vermont South was $496, higher than Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Vermont South's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents substantially above the national figure of $375.

Vermont South features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 81.3% of all households, including 40.8% that are couples with children, 30.0% that are couples without children, and 9.4% that are single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 18.7%, with lone person households at 16.7% and group households comprising 2.1% of the total. The median household size is 2.8 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Vermont South shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Vermont South has a higher proportion of residents with university qualifications than Australia and its SA4 region. Among residents aged 15 and above, 43.0% have such qualifications, compared to the national average of 30.4% and the SA4 regional average of 31.2%. This educational advantage is reflected in the types of qualifications held: bachelor degrees are most common at 26.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (12.7%) and graduate diplomas (3.6%). Vocational pathways account for 23.6% of qualifications, with advanced diplomas making up 11.6% and certificates 12.0%.

Educational participation is high in the area, with 29.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.5% in secondary education, 8.1% in primary education, and 6.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Vermont South has 51 active public transport stops offering a mix of light rail and bus services. These are served by 16 routes facilitating 5,253 weekly passenger trips in total. Transport accessibility is deemed good with residents located an average of 260 meters from the nearest stop. The area is predominantly residential with outward commuting patterns. Car remains the primary mode of transport at 88%, while train usage stands at 7%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.7 per dwelling, above the regional norm.

According to the 2021 Census, 36.7% of residents work from home, a figure possibly influenced by COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency across all routes averages 750 trips daily, equating to roughly 103 weekly trips per stop.

Vermont South's residents are extremely healthy with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Vermont South. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence were very low across all age groups.

Private health cover rate was approximately 53%, compared to 56.7% across Greater Melbourne (~6,443 people). The most common medical conditions were arthritis (7.5%) and asthma (5.9%). 72.1% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, similar to the 72.6% in Greater Melbourne. Vermont South has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 27.4%, compared to 15.0% in Greater Melbourne (3,355 people). Health outcomes among seniors are strong, ranking nationally in line with the general population.

Vermont South is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Vermont South has a high level of cultural diversity, with 47.3% of its population speaking a language other than English at home and 47.3% born overseas. Christianity is the predominant religion in Vermont South, accounting for 46.9% of people. Buddhism is notably overrepresented, comprising 6.0% of the population compared to 4.2% across Greater Melbourne.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups are Chinese (24.8%), English (17.4%), and Australian (14.0%). Certain ethnic groups show notable divergences: Sri Lankan is overrepresented at 1.4%, Greek at 4.1%, and Korean at 0.7%.

Vermont South hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

The median age in Vermont South is 46 years, notably higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and also above Australia's median of 38 years. Comparing with Greater Melbourne, the 75-84 age cohort is notably over-represented at 11.2% locally, while the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 10.3%. The 75-84 concentration in Vermont South is well above the national average of 6.1%. Between the 2021 Census and present, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 8.9% to 11.2%, while the 25 to 34 cohort has increased from 9.2% to 10.3%. Conversely, the 65 to 74 age group has declined from 13.8% to 12.0%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic changes in Vermont South. The 85+ age cohort is projected to grow by 372 people (74%), from 504 to 877. The aging population trend is clear, with those aged 65 and above comprising 63% of the projected growth. Conversely, the 15 to 24 and 0 to 4 age cohorts are expected to experience population declines.