Vermont South

An assessment of population growth drivers in Vermont South reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Vermont South's population, as of February 2026, is approximately 12,302. This figure represents an increase of 348 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 11,954. The growth is inferred from ABS estimates: 12,275 in June 2024 and 76 validated new addresses post-Census. This results in a density ratio of 1,990 persons per square kilometer, higher than the national average assessed by AreaSearch. Vermont South's 2.9% growth since Census compares favorably with its SA3 area (4.8%), indicating strong growth fundamentals. Overseas migration was the primary driver for this population increase.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024, based on 2022 data, and VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 for areas not covered by ABS data. Population growth rates are applied across all areas until 2041. Based on these projections, Vermont South is expected to increase by approximately 1,084 persons by 2041, reflecting an 8.6% total increase over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Vermont South, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Vermont South has recorded approximately 34 residential properties granted approval annually over the past five financial years, totalling 172 homes. As of FY-26, 11 approvals have been recorded. The average expected construction cost value for new homes is $485,000, indicating a focus on premium market segment with higher-end properties. In this financial year, $14.2 million in commercial approvals have been registered, showing moderate levels of commercial development.

Compared to Greater Melbourne, Vermont South records about three-quarters the building activity per person and ranks among the 41st percentile nationally, suggesting relatively constrained buyer choice favouring existing dwellings. This is reflective of the area's maturity and possible planning constraints. New building activity consists of 41.0% standalone homes and 59.0% townhouses or apartments, promoting affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. The current housing mix is predominantly houses at 88.0%, showing a shift towards higher-density living due to reduced development sites and evolving lifestyle demands. Vermont South has an estimated population density of approximately 416 people per dwelling approval, indicating an established area. Population forecasts suggest Vermont South will gain 1,057 residents by 2041 (based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate).

Building activity is keeping pace with growth projections, though increased competition among buyers is expected as the population grows.

Vermont South has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 39thth percentile nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 15 projects that could impact the region. Notable ones include 289-291 Morack Road Townhouses, Wantirna Health Precinct West, Billabong Park Master Plan, and Oak Place by Stockland. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis reveals Vermont South significantly outperforming the majority of regions assessed nationwide

Vermont South has a highly educated workforce with professional services being strongly represented. The unemployment rate is 2.0%, with an estimated employment growth of 1.1% over the past year as of September 2025. In this period, 6,193 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 2.6% lower than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%.

The workforce participation rate in Vermont South is significantly lower at 59.5%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 71.0%. According to Census responses, a high proportion of residents, 36.7%, work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Key industries of employment among residents are health care & social assistance, professional & technical services, and retail trade.

Construction has limited presence with 7.5% employment compared to the regional average of 9.7%. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 1.1%, while labour force increased by 0.9%, resulting in a decrease in unemployment by 0.2 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 3.0% and labour force growth of 3.3%, with an increase in unemployment by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that over five years, national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6%. Over ten years, this expansion is projected to be 13.7%. Applying these industry-specific projections to Vermont South's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.8% over ten years.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data released for financial year ended 30 June 2023, Vermont South SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $50,382 and an average level of $67,530. These figures are comparable to national averages and Greater Melbourne levels of $57,688 and $75,164 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% from financial year ended 30 June 2023 to September 2025, estimated median income would be approximately $54,539 and average income $73,101 by that date. According to Australian Bureau of Statistics Census data for 2021, household income ranks at the 62nd percentile with weekly earnings of $1,944, while personal income is at the 31st percentile. The data shows 28.3% of Vermont South's population (3,481 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income range, similar to the surrounding region where 32.8% occupy this range. Economic strength is evident with 30.4% of households earning over $3,000 weekly, indicating high consumer spending power after housing expenses. After accounting for housing costs, 86.5% of income remains for other expenses. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Vermont South is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Vermont South's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 88.3% houses and 11.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), contrasting with Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Vermont South stood at 50.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 34.7% and rented ones at 14.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,383, surpassing Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. Median weekly rent in Vermont South was $496, higher than Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Vermont South's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Vermont South features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 81.3% of all households, including 40.8% couples with children, 30.0% couples without children, and 9.4% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 18.7%, with lone person households at 16.7% and group households comprising 2.1%. The median household size is 2.8 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Vermont South shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational attainment in Vermont South significantly surpasses broader benchmarks. As of 2016, 43.0% of residents aged 15 and above held university qualifications, compared to 30.4% nationally and 31.2% in the SA4 region. This substantial educational advantage positions the area strongly for knowledge-based opportunities. Bachelor degrees were the most common at 26.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 12.7% and graduate diplomas at 3.6%.

Vocational pathways accounted for 23.6% of qualifications among those aged 15 and above, with advanced diplomas at 11.6% and certificates at 12.0%. Educational participation was notably high, with 29.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education as of 2018. This included 8.5% in secondary education, 8.1% in primary education, and 6.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Vermont South has 51 active public transport stops offering a mix of light rail and bus services. These are served by 16 routes collectively facilitating 5,253 weekly passenger trips. Transport access is rated good with residents typically located 260 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward, with car being the dominant mode at 88%, while train usage stands at 7%. The area has an average of 1.7 vehicles per dwelling, above the regional norm. According to the 2021 Census, 36.7% of residents work from home, possibly due to COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 750 trips daily across all routes, equating to around 103 weekly trips per individual stop.

Vermont South's residents are extremely healthy with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Analysis of health metrics indicates robust performance across Vermont South, as per AreaSearch's evaluation of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The area exhibits a very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups.

Private health cover stands at approximately 53% of the total population (~6,470 people), slightly higher than the average SA2 area but lower than Greater Melbourne's 56.7%. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis and asthma, affecting 7.5 and 5.9% of residents respectively. Notably, 72.1% of residents report being completely free from medical ailments, similar to Greater Melbourne's 72.6%. Vermont South has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over, at 27.9% (3,428 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 15.1%. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors align with national rankings, mirroring those of the general population.

Vermont South is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Vermont South has a high level of cultural diversity, with 47.3% of its population speaking a language other than English at home and 47.3% born overseas. Christianity is the predominant religion in Vermont South, comprising 46.9% of people. Buddhism is overrepresented in Vermont South compared to Greater Melbourne, making up 6.0% versus 4.2%.

The top three ancestry groups are Chinese (24.8%), English (17.4%), and Australian (14.0%). Notably, Sri Lankan (1.4%) Greek (4.1%) and Korean (0.7%) ethnicities are overrepresented in Vermont South compared to regional averages of 0.8%, 2.7% and 0.3% respectively.

Vermont South hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

The median age in Vermont South is 46 years, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and also exceeds Australia's median age of 38 years. The 75-84 age cohort makes up 11.3% of the population in Vermont South, compared to 9.8% for the 25-34 age group, indicating an over-representation of the older cohort and under-representation of the younger one relative to Greater Melbourne's averages. Nationally, the 75-84 age cohort comprises 6.1%. Between the 2021 Census and present day, the percentage of people aged 75-84 has increased from 8.9% to 11.3%, while the 65-74 age group has decreased from 13.8% to 12.3%. By 2041, population forecasts suggest that Vermont South's 85+ age cohort will grow significantly, expanding by 394 people (75%) from 527 to 922. The population aged 65 and above is projected to comprise 63% of the total growth. Conversely, the 0-4 and 35-44 age cohorts are expected to experience population declines.