Vermont South
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Vermont South reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Vermont South's population was around 12,300 as of November 2025. This reflected an increase of 346 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 11,954. The change was inferred from ABS estimates showing an estimated resident population of 12,275 in June 2024 and an additional 81 validated new addresses since the Census date. This resulted in a population density ratio of 1,990 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Vermont South's 2.9% growth since the census positioned it within 1.1 percentage points of the SA4 region (4.0%), indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration was primarily responsible for population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopted ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 for each SA2 area. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch used VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusting them employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group were applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041 based on these aggregations. Considering projected demographic shifts, Vermont South is expected to increase its population by just below the median of Australian statistical areas to 2041, with an expected increase of 1,084 persons and an overall increase of 8.6% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Vermont South, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Vermont South has recorded approximately 34 residential properties granted approval annually over the past five financial years, totalling 172 homes. As of FY-26, 10 approvals have been recorded. The average construction cost value for new homes is $485,000, indicating a focus on the premium market segment. In this financial year, $14.2 million in commercial approvals have been registered.

Compared to Greater Melbourne, Vermont South records about three-quarters the building activity per person and places among the 41st percentile of areas assessed nationally, suggesting relatively constrained buyer choice and supporting interest in existing dwellings. The area has an established housing mix with approximately 88% houses and 12% townhouses or apartments. However, recent trends show a shift towards higher-density living, with 59% of new approvals being for townhouses or apartments, reflecting reduced availability of development sites and changing lifestyle demands. The location currently has about 416 people per dwelling approval, indicating an established area. Population forecasts project Vermont South to gain 1,059 residents by 2041, with building activity keeping pace with growth projections despite potential competition among buyers as the population grows.

Population forecasts indicate Vermont South will gain 1,059 residents through to 2041. Building activity is keeping pace with growth projections, though buyers may experience heightened competition as the population grows.

Vermont South has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 15 projects that could affect this region. Notable ones include 289-291 Morack Road Townhouses, Serenity, Wantirna Health Precinct West, and Billabong Park Master Plan. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

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AreaSearch analysis reveals Vermont South significantly outperforming the majority of regions assessed nationwide

Vermont South has a highly educated workforce with professional services well-represented. Its unemployment rate is 1.8%, lower than Greater Melbourne's 4.6%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 1.0%. As of June 2025, 6,164 residents are employed while the participation rate is 56.0%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Key industries include health care & social assistance, professional & technical services, and retail trade.

Construction employment stands at 7.5% compared to the regional average of 9.7%. The area offers limited local employment opportunities, indicated by Census data on working population versus resident population. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 1.0%, labour force grew by 0.7%, leading to a unemployment rate decrease of 0.3 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne saw employment growth of 3.5% and labour force growth of 4.0%, with unemployment rising by 0.5 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 project overall growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Vermont South's industry mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.7% over five years and 13.8% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

Vermont South had a median income among taxpayers of $47,165 in the financial year 2022. The average income stood at $65,062 during this period. These figures align with national averages and compare to $54,892 and $73,761 respectively across Greater Melbourne. By September 2025, current estimates project the median income to be approximately $52,900 and the average income at around $72,974, based on a 12.16% growth in wages since financial year 2022. According to the 2021 Census, Vermont South's household income ranks at the 62nd percentile ($1,944 weekly), while personal income sits at the 31st percentile. In this area, 28.3% of individuals (3,480 people) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income range, reflecting a pattern seen in surrounding regions where 32.8% occupy this range. Economic strength is evident with 30.4% of households achieving high weekly earnings exceeding $3,000, supporting elevated consumer spending. After housing costs, 86.5% of income remains for other expenses. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Vermont South is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Vermont South's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 88.3% houses and 11.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This contrasts with Melbourne metro's figures of 73.0% houses and 26.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Vermont South stood at 50.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 34.7% and rented ones at 14.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,383, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $2,200. The median weekly rent in Vermont South was $496, compared to Melbourne metro's $410. Nationally, Vermont South's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Vermont South features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 81.3% of all households, including 40.8% that are couples with children, 30.0% that are couples without children, and 9.4% that are single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 18.7%, with lone person households at 16.7% and group households comprising 2.1% of the total. The median household size is 2.8 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Vermont South shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational attainment in Vermont South is notably high, with 43.0% of residents aged 15+ holding university qualifications, exceeding the Australian average of 30.4% and the SA4 region's average of 31.2%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 26.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (12.7%) and graduate diplomas (3.6%). Vocational pathways account for 23.6% of qualifications, with advanced diplomas at 11.6% and certificates at 12.0%. Educational participation is high, with 29.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 8.5% in secondary education, 8.1% in primary education, and 6.9% pursuing tertiary education. Vermont South's schools have a combined enrollment of 2,455 students as of the latest data. The area has above-average socio-educational conditions (ICSEA: 1091). It comprises 3 primary schools, 1 secondary school, and 1 K-12 school. School capacity exceeds typical residential needs, with 20.0 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 13.4, indicating that Vermont South serves as an educational center for the broader region.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Vermont South has 51 active public transport stops, including lightrail and bus services. These stops are served by 17 different routes that together facilitate 4,927 weekly passenger trips. The transport system in Vermont South is rated as good, with residents located an average of 261 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 703 daily trips across all routes, equating to approximately 96 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Vermont South is notably higher than the national average with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Vermont South shows above-average health outcomes for both younger and older age groups, with low prevalence of common health conditions. Its private health cover rate is approximately 52%, slightly higher than the average SA2 area's rate of 50%.

This compares to a rate of 54.2% across Greater Melbourne. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (7.5%) and asthma (5.9%). A total of 72.1% of residents report no medical ailments, similar to the 72.3% in Greater Melbourne. Vermont South has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 27.3%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 20.4%. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors are strong, performing better than the general population in health metrics.

Vermont South is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Vermont South has a high level of cultural diversity, with 47.3% of its population speaking a language other than English at home and 47.3% born overseas. The dominant religion is Christianity, accounting for 46.9%. Buddhism is notably higher in Vermont South at 6.0%, compared to the Greater Melbourne average of 5.3%.

The top three ancestral groups are Chinese (24.8%), English (17.4%), and Australian (14.0%). Some ethnic groups show significant variations: Sri Lankan at 1.4% versus 0.9% regionally, Greek at 4.1% versus 2.4%, and Korean at 0.7% versus 0.6%.

Vermont South hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

The median age in Vermont South is 46 years, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and also exceeds Australia's median age of 38 years. The 75-84 age group makes up 10.9% of the population in Vermont South, compared to 8.2% in Greater Melbourne, indicating a notable over-representation of this cohort locally. Conversely, the 25-34 age group is under-represented in Vermont South at 9.9%, compared to 16.7% in Greater Melbourne. According to the 2021 Census, the percentage of the population aged 75 to 84 has increased from 8.9% to 10.9%, while the percentage of those aged 65 to 74 has decreased from 13.8% to 12.3%. By 2041, population forecasts suggest that the number of people aged 85 and above in Vermont South will grow significantly, increasing by 420 individuals (an 84% rise) from 501 to 922. The aging population trend is evident, with those aged 65 and above accounting for 66% of the projected growth. In contrast, the 15-24 and 0-4 age groups are expected to experience population declines.