Vermont South

An assessment of population growth drivers in Vermont South reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Vermont South's population is around 12,302 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 348 people (2.9%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 11,954 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 12,275 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 76 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 1,990 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Vermont South's 2.9% growth since the census positions it within 1.9 percentage points of the SA3 area (4.8%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which was essentially the sole driver of population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering the projected demographic shifts, a population increase just below the median of Australian statistical areas is expected, with the area expected to increase by 1,084 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 8.6% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Vermont South, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Vermont South has recorded around 34 residential properties granted approval per year, totalling 172 homes over the past 5 financial years. So far in FY-26, 12 approvals have been recorded. With population declining over recent years, new supply has likely been keeping up with demand, offering good choice to buyers, while new homes are being built at an average value of $485,000, revealing that developers are targeting the premium market segment with higher-end properties. Additionally, $14.2 million in commercial approvals have been registered this financial year, demonstrating moderate levels of commercial development.

When measured against Greater Melbourne, Vermont South records about three-quarters the building activity per person while it places among the 41st percentile of areas assessed nationally, resulting in relatively constrained buyer choice and supporting interest in existing dwellings. This is also below average nationally, reflecting the area's maturity and pointing to possible planning constraints. New building activity shows 41.0% standalone homes and 59.0% townhouses or apartments. This focus on higher-density living creates more affordable entry points and suits downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This shows a considerable change from the current housing mix (currently 88.0% houses), reflecting reduced availability of development sites and addressing shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. The location has approximately 416 people per dwelling approval, reflecting an established area.

Population forecasts indicate Vermont South will gain 1,057 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Building activity is keeping pace with growth projections, though buyers may experience heightened competition as the population grows.

Vermont South has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 39thth percentile nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total, 15 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include 289-291 Morack Road Townhouses, Wantirna Health Precinct West, Billabong Park Master Plan, and Oak Place by Stockland, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis places Vermont South well above average for employment performance across multiple indicators

Vermont South possesses a highly educated workforce, with professional services showing strong representation, an unemployment rate of just 2.3%, and 1.4% in estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 6,208 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 2.5% below Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%, and workforce participation lags significantly (59.8% compared to Greater Melbourne's 71.3%). Based on Census responses, a high 36.7% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

The key industries of employment among residents are health care & social assistance, professional & technical, and retail trade. Meanwhile, construction has a limited presence with 7.5% employment compared to 9.7% regionally. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of the Census working population versus the resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, during the year to December 2025, employment levels increased by 1.4% and the labour force increased by 1.6%, resulting in unemployment rising by 0.1 percentage points. By comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 2.4%, labour force growth of 2.8%, with unemployment rising 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Vermont South. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Vermont South's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.8% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for FY-23, the Vermont South SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $50,382 with the average level standing at $67,530. This is in line with national averages and compares to levels of $57,688 and $75,164 across Greater Melbourne respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $54,539 (median) and $73,101 (average) as of September 2025. According to 2021 Census figures, household income ranks at the 62nd percentile ($1,944 weekly), while personal income sits at the 31st percentile. The data shows 28.3% of the population (3,481 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income range, reflecting patterns seen in the surrounding region where 32.8% similarly occupy this range. Economic strength emerges through 30.4% of households achieving high weekly earnings exceeding $3,000, supporting elevated consumer spending. After housing, 86.5% of income remains for other expenses and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Vermont South is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within Vermont South, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 88.3% houses and 11.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Vermont South was well beyond that of Melbourne metro, at 50.7%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (34.7%) or rented (14.6%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well above the Melbourne metro average at $2,383, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $496, compared to Melbourne metro's $2,000 and $390. Nationally, Vermont South's mortgage repayments are significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially above the national figure of $375.

Vermont South features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 81.3% of all households, comprising 40.8% couples with children, 30.0% couples without children, and 9.4% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 18.7%, with lone person households at 16.7% and group households comprising 2.1% of the total. The median household size of 2.8 people is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Vermont South shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational attainment in Vermont South significantly surpasses broader benchmarks, with 43.0% of residents aged 15+ holding university qualifications compared to 30.4% in Australia and 31.2% in the SA4 region. This substantial educational advantage positions the area strongly for knowledge-based opportunities. Bachelor degrees lead at 26.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (12.7%) and graduate diplomas (3.6%). Vocational pathways account for 23.6% of qualifications among those aged 15+ – advanced diplomas (11.6%) and certificates (12.0%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 29.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.5% in secondary education, 8.1% in primary education, and 6.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 51 active transport stops operating within Vermont South, comprising a mix of light rail and buses. These stops are serviced by 16 individual routes, collectively providing 5,253 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 260 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 88%, with 7% by train. Vehicle ownership averages 1.7 per dwelling, which is above the regional average. A high 36.7% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 750 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 103 weekly trips per individual stop.

Vermont South's residents are extremely healthy with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Vermont South, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. There is a very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups, and the rate of private health cover just leads that of the average SA2 area at approximately 53% of the total population (~6,470 people). This compares to 56.7% across Greater Melbourne.

The most common medical conditions in the area were found to be arthritis and asthma, impacting 7.5 and 5.9% of residents, respectively, while 72.1% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. The area has 27.9% of residents aged 65 and over (3,428 people), which is higher than the 15.1% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Vermont South is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Vermont South scores highly on cultural diversity, with 47.3% of its population speaking a language other than English at home and 47.3% born overseas. The main religion in Vermont South is Christianity, which makes up 46.9% of the population. However, the most apparent overrepresentation is in Buddhism, which comprises 6.0% of the population, compared to 4.2% across Greater Melbourne.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Vermont South are Chinese, comprising 24.8% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 6.5%, English, comprising 17.4% of the population, and Australian, comprising 14.0% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of other ethnic groups: Sri Lankan is overrepresented at 1.4% of Vermont South (vs 0.8% regionally), Greek at 4.1% (vs 2.7%), and Korean at 0.7% (vs 0.3%).

Vermont South hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

The 46-year median age in Vermont South is notably higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and similarly well above the Australian median of 38. Compared to the Greater Melbourne average, the 75 - 84 cohort is notably over-represented (11.3% locally), while 25 - 34 year-olds are under-represented (9.8%). This 75 - 84 concentration is well above the national 6.1%. Since the 2021 Census, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 8.9% to 11.3% of the population. Conversely, the 65 to 74 cohort has declined from 13.8% to 12.3%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes for Vermont South. The 85+ age cohort is projected to grow significantly, expanding by 394 people (75%) from 527 to 922. The aging population dynamic is clear, with those 65+ comprising 63% of projected growth. Conversely, the 0 to 4 and 35 to 44 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.