Vermont South

An assessment of population growth drivers in Vermont South reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

The population of Vermont South, as estimated by AreaSearch based on ABS updates and new addresses validated since November 2025, is around 12,300. This figure reflects an increase of 346 people from the 2021 Census total of 11,954, indicating a growth rate of approximately 2.9%. AreaSearch's estimate of 12,275 residents, which includes the latest ERP data release by ABS (June 2024), and an additional 81 validated new addresses since the Census date, supports this increase. This results in a population density of 1,990 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Vermont South's growth rate since the census is within 1.1 percentage points of the SA4 region's 4.0%, indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration was the primary driver of population gains in recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Considering these projections, the suburb is expected to increase by just below the median for Australian statistical areas, adding 1,084 persons by 2041, reflecting an overall increase of approximately 8.6% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Vermont South, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Vermont South has recorded approximately 34 residential properties granted approval annually over the past five financial years ending FY26. This totals an estimated 172 homes. As of FY26, 10 approvals have been recorded. The population decline in recent years suggests that new supply is meeting demand, providing good choice for buyers.

The average value of new homes being built is $812,000, indicating a focus on the premium market segment. In FY26, $14.2 million worth of commercial approvals have been registered, signifying moderate levels of commercial development. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Vermont South has about three-quarters the building activity per person. Nationally, it ranks in the 41st percentile of areas assessed, resulting in relatively constrained buyer choice and supporting interest in existing dwellings. This is reflective of the area's maturity and possible planning constraints. New building activity comprises 42.0% standalone homes and 58.0% townhouses or apartments, creating more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers.

This marks a significant shift from the current housing mix, which is predominantly houses (88.0%). Vermont South has approximately 394 people per dwelling approval, indicating an established area. Population forecasts suggest that Vermont South will gain 1,059 residents by 2041. Building activity appears to be keeping pace with growth projections, though buyers may face increased competition as the population grows.

Vermont South has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 15 projects that could affect the region. Notable initiatives include the 289-291 Morack Road Townhouses, Wantirna Health Precinct West, Billabong Park Master Plan, and Oak Place by Stockland. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis reveals Vermont South significantly outperforming the majority of regions assessed nationwide

Vermont South has a highly educated workforce with professional services well represented. The unemployment rate was 1.8% as of June 2025, with an estimated employment growth of 1.0% over the past year.

This area has 6,164 residents in work, compared to Greater Melbourne's 4.6% unemployment rate and 64.1% workforce participation rate. Key industries for employment among residents are health care & social assistance, professional & technical services, and retail trade. Construction has a limited presence with 7.5% employment compared to the regional average of 9.7%.

Employment opportunities locally appear limited as indicated by Census data comparing working population to resident population. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 1.0%, labour force grew by 0.7%, resulting in a unemployment rate decrease of 0.3 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 3.5% and labour force growth of 4.0%, with an increase in unemployment of 0.5 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, published in Sep-22, project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Vermont South's employment mix suggests local employment should grow by 6.7% over five years and 13.8% over ten years.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

In financial year 2022, Vermont South had a median income among taxpayers of $47,165 and an average level of $65,062. These figures align with national averages, which were $54,892 and $73,761 respectively across Greater Melbourne. By September 2025, estimates suggest the median income would be approximately $52,900 and the average around $72,974, accounting for a 12.16% growth in wages since financial year 2022. According to the 2021 Census, Vermont South's household income ranks at the 62nd percentile ($1,944 weekly) and personal income at the 31st percentile. In terms of income distribution, 28.3% of the population (3,480 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 range, similar to the surrounding region where 32.8% occupy this range. Economic strength is evident with 30.4% of households earning more than $3,000 weekly after housing costs, leaving 86.5% of income for other expenses. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Vermont South is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Vermont South's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 88.3% houses and 11.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), contrasting with Melbourne metro's 73.0% houses and 26.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Vermont South stood at 50.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 34.7% and rented ones at 14.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,383, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $2,200. The median weekly rent in Vermont South was $496, compared to Melbourne metro's $410. Nationally, Vermont South's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Vermont South features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 81.3% of all households, including 40.8% couples with children, 30.0% couples without children, and 9.4% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 18.7%, with lone person households at 16.7% and group households making up 2.1%. The median household size is 2.8 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Vermont South shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational attainment in Vermont South is notably high, with 43% of residents aged 15 and above holding university qualifications. This figure exceeds the national average of 30.4% and the SA4 region's average of 31.2%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 26.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (12.7%) and graduate diplomas (3.6%). Vocational pathways account for 23.6% of qualifications among those aged 15 and above, with advanced diplomas making up 11.6% and certificates 12%.

Educational participation is high, with 29.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.5% in secondary education, 8.1% in primary education, and 6.9% pursuing tertiary education. The five schools in Vermont South have a combined enrollment of 2,455 students. The area has above-average socio-educational conditions (ICSEA: 1091) and is composed of three primary schools, one secondary school, and one K-12 school. School capacity exceeds typical residential needs, with 20 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 13.4, indicating that Vermont South serves as an educational center for the broader region.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Vermont South has 51 active public transport stops operating within its boundaries. These comprise a mix of light rail and bus services. There are 17 individual routes serving these stops, collectively facilitating 4,927 weekly passenger trips.

The accessibility of transport in Vermont South is rated as good, with residents typically situated 261 meters from the nearest stop. On average, there are 703 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 96 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Vermont South is notably higher than the national average with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Vermont South shows superior health outcomes for both younger and older age groups, with low prevalence of common conditions.

Its private health cover rate is approximately 53%, slightly higher than the average SA2 area (~6,466 people). The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (7.5%) and asthma (5.9%). A total of 72.1% of residents report no medical ailments, comparable to Greater Melbourne's 72.3%. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 27.3% (3,357 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 20.4%. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors in Vermont South are notably better than those of the general population.

Vermont South is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Vermont South has a high level of cultural diversity, with 47.3% of its population speaking a language other than English at home and 47.3% born overseas. Christianity is the predominant religion in Vermont South, making up 46.9% of people, but Buddhism is overrepresented at 6.0%, compared to Greater Melbourne's average of 5.3%. The top three ancestry groups are Chinese (24.8%), English (17.4%), and Australian (14.0%).

Notably, Sri Lankan (1.4%) and Greek (4.1%) populations are overrepresented in Vermont South compared to regional averages of 0.9% and 2.4%, respectively. Korean ancestry is also slightly higher at 0.7%.

Vermont South hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

The median age in Vermont South is 46 years, which is notably higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and also exceeds the Australian median of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, the 75-84 age cohort is significantly over-represented in Vermont South at 10.9%, while the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 9.9%. Between the 2021 Census and the present day, the percentage of the population in the 75 to 84 age group has increased from 8.9% to 10.9%, while the 65 to 74 age cohort has declined from 13.8% to 12.3%. By 2041, the population forecasts indicate substantial demographic changes for Vermont South. The 85+ age group is projected to grow significantly, expanding by 416 people (an 83% increase) from 504 to 921. The aging population trend is clear, with those aged 65 and above comprising 66% of the projected growth. Conversely, the 15-24 and 0-4 age cohorts are expected to experience population declines.