Vermont South

An assessment of population growth drivers in Vermont South reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As per AreaSearch's analysis of ABS population updates and new addresses validated since Feb 2026, the suburb of Vermont South has an estimated population of around 12,302. This figure represents a growth of 348 people (2.9%) from the 2021 Census total of 11,954. The increase is inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of 12,275 residents following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 76 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1,990 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Vermont South's growth rate since census, at 2.9%, is within 1.9 percentage points of the SA3 area (4.8%), indicating strong growth fundamentals. Overseas migration was the primary driver of population gains in recent periods.

AreaSearch employs ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 adjusted to SA2 levels using weighted aggregation. Projected demographic shifts suggest a population increase just below the median of Australian statistical areas by 2041. The suburb is expected to gain approximately 1,084 persons by 2041, reflecting an overall increase of 8.6% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Vermont South, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Vermont South recorded approximately 34 residential approvals per year over the past five financial years ending FY26. This totals an estimated 172 homes. As of FY26, 11 approvals have been recorded. The average construction cost value for new homes is $812,000, indicating a focus on premium properties.

In FY26, commercial approvals amounted to $14.2 million, suggesting moderate commercial development. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Vermont South has about three-quarters the building activity per person and ranks in the 41st percentile nationally for building activity. This results in relatively constrained buyer choice, favouring existing dwellings. The area's maturity and possible planning constraints contribute to this below-average national performance. New building activity comprises 42.0% standalone homes and 58.0% townhouses or apartments, promoting higher-density living and affordability for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This shift reflects reduced development site availability and changing lifestyle demands.

Vermont South has an estimated 394 people per dwelling approval, indicating an established area. Population forecasts project a gain of 1,057 residents by 2041. Building activity is keeping pace with growth projections, but increased competition among buyers can be expected as the population grows.

Vermont South has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 15 projects likely to impact the area. Notable projects include 289-291 Morack Road Townhouses, Wantirna Health Precinct West, Billabong Park Master Plan, and Oak Place by Stockland. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis reveals Vermont South significantly outperforming the majority of regions assessed nationwide

Vermont South has a highly educated workforce with professional services well represented. The unemployment rate was 2.0% in the past year, showing an estimated employment growth of 1.1%. As of September 2025, 6,193 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 2.6%, lower than Greater Melbourne's 4.7%.

Workforce participation is 59.5%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's 71.0%. A high 36.7% of residents work from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Key industries of employment include health care & social assistance, professional & technical services, and retail trade.

Construction has a limited presence with 7.5% employment compared to the regional average of 9.7%. The area offers limited local employment opportunities, indicated by the difference between Census working population and resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 1.1%, labour force grew by 0.9%, leading to a unemployment rate decrease of 0.2 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 3.0% and labour force growth of 3.3%, with unemployment rising by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying growth rates across industries. Applying these projections to Vermont South's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.8% over ten years, though these are simple weighted extrapolations for illustrative purposes and do not account for localized population projections.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data released for financial year 2023, Vermont South had a median income among taxpayers of $47,165. The average income stood at $65,062. Both figures are below the national averages of $57,688 and $75,164 respectively in Greater Melbourne. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, current estimates for median income would be approximately $51,056 as of September 2025, with average income estimated at around $70,430 by the same date. According to the 2021 Census, household income ranks at the 62nd percentile ($1,944 weekly), while personal income sits at the 31st percentile. In Vermont South, 28.3% of the population (3,481 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 income range, similar to the surrounding region where 32.8% occupy this range. Economic strength is evident with 30.4% of households achieving high weekly earnings exceeding $3,000, supporting elevated consumer spending. After housing costs, 86.5% of income remains for other expenses. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Vermont South is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Vermont South's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 88.3% houses and 11.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Vermont South stood at 50.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 34.7% and rented ones at 14.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,383, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. Median weekly rent in Vermont South was $496, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Vermont South's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Vermont South features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 81.3% of all households, including 40.8% couples with children, 30.0% couples without children, and 9.4% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 18.7%, with lone person households at 16.7% and group households making up 2.1%. The median household size is 2.8 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Vermont South shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational attainment in Vermont South is notably high, with 43.0% of residents aged 15 and above holding university qualifications. This figure exceeds the national average of 30.4% for Australia and the SA4 region average of 31.2%. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent at 26.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 12.7% and graduate diplomas at 3.6%. Vocational pathways account for 23.6% of qualifications among those aged 15 and above, with advanced diplomas making up 11.6% and certificates accounting for 12.0%.

Educational participation is high in the area, with 29.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.5% enrolled in secondary education, 8.1% in primary education, and 6.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Vermont South has 51 operational public transport stops, offering a mix of light rail and bus services. These stops are served by 16 different routes, together facilitating 5,253 weekly passenger journeys. Transport access is deemed good, with residents, on average, located 260 metres from the nearest stop. Predominantly residential, most commuters travel outward. Cars remain the primary mode of transport, used by 88% of residents, while train usage stands at 7%. On average, there are 1.7 vehicles per dwelling, exceeding the regional norm.

Notably, 36.7% of residents work from home (2021 Census data, potentially influenced by COVID-19 conditions). Across all routes, service frequency averages 750 trips daily, translating to about 103 weekly trips per individual stop.

Vermont South's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Vermont South demonstrates excellent health outcomes based on AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are very low across all age groups.

Private health cover is high at approximately 53%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 56.7%. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (7.5%) and asthma (5.9%). A significant majority, 72.1%, report no medical ailments, similar to Greater Melbourne's 72.6%. Vermont South has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 27.9% (3,432 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 15.1%. Health outcomes among seniors are strong and align with national rankings for the general population.

Vermont South is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Vermont South has a high cultural diversity, with 47.3% speaking a language other than English at home and 47.3% born overseas. Christianity is the main religion, making up 46.9%. Buddhism is overrepresented at 6.0%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 4.2%.

The top three ancestry groups are Chinese (24.8%), English (17.4%), and Australian (14.0%). Sri Lankan (1.4%) and Greek (4.1%) are notably overrepresented, while Korean is slightly higher at 0.7% compared to regional averages of 0.8%, 2.7%, and 0.3% respectively.

Vermont South hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

The median age in Vermont South is 46 years, which is notably higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and also exceeds Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, the cohort aged 75-84 is significantly over-represented in Vermont South at 11.3%, while those aged 25-34 are under-represented at 9.8%. The 75-84 age group's concentration in Vermont South is higher than the national average of 6.1%. Between the 2021 Census and the present, the percentage of the population aged 75 to 84 has increased from 8.9% to 11.3%, while the percentage of those aged 65 to 74 has decreased from 13.8% to 12.3%. By 2041, the population forecast indicates significant growth in the 85+ age cohort, with an increase of 392 people (74%) from 528 to 921. The aging population trend is evident, with those aged 65 and above accounting for 63% of projected growth. Conversely, the cohorts aged 0-4 and 35-44 are expected to experience population declines.