Wheelers Hill
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Wheelers Hill reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Wheelers Hill's population was 20,652 as of Aug 2021. By Aug 2025, it is estimated to be around 21,071, an increase of 419 people (2.0%). This growth is inferred from ABS data showing an estimated resident population of 21,287 in June 2024 and 133 new addresses validated since the Census date. The population density in Aug 2025 is expected to be 2,018 persons per square kilometer. Overseas migration was the primary driver of this growth.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, Wheelers Hill's population is expected to increase by 1,545 persons, a gain of 8.3% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Wheelers Hill according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Wheelers Hill has averaged approximately 72 new dwelling approvals annually. Development approval data is produced by the ABS on a financial year basis. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25363 dwellings were approved with an additional 8 approvals so far in FY-26. On average, 0.4 people have moved to the area per dwelling built over these five years, indicating that new supply is keeping pace with or exceeding demand and offering ample buyer choice while creating capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts.

New properties are constructed at an average value of $918,000, demonstrating a focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties. This financial year has seen $17.8 million in commercial approvals, indicating moderate levels of commercial development. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Wheelers Hill records approximately 65% of the building activity per person and places among the 41st percentile of areas assessed nationally. This indicates somewhat limited buyer options while strengthening demand for established properties. This level is also below average nationally, reflecting the area's maturity and possible planning constraints.

Recent construction comprises 68.0% standalone homes and 32.0% medium and high-density housing, with a growing mix of townhouses and apartments providing options across different price points. This represents a notable shift from the area's existing housing composition, which is currently 85.0% houses. This indicates decreasing availability of developable sites and reflects changing lifestyles and the need for more diverse, affordable housing options. At around 413 people per approval, Wheelers Hill indicates a mature market. Looking ahead, projections estimate that the area will grow by 1,759 residents through to 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Wheelers Hill has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Eight projects have been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area's performance. These include Collegium Avenue Townhouses, Brandon Park Shopping Centre Redevelopment, 855-869 Ferntree Gully Road Townhouses, and Rowville Rail/Light Rail Project. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

The labour market strength in Wheelers Hill positions it well ahead of most Australian regions

Wheelers Hill has a highly educated workforce with strong representation in professional services. Its unemployment rate is 1.8%, lower than Greater Melbourne's 4.6%.

Over the past year, employment grew by an estimated 4.1%. As of June 2025, 10,542 residents are employed, with a participation rate of 53.4% compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Key industries include health care & social assistance, professional & technical services, and retail trade. Wholesale trade shows strong specialization with an employment share 1.6 times the regional level, while transport, postal & warehousing is lower at 3.1% versus the regional average of 5.2%.

Over the year to June 2025, employment increased by 4.1%, labour force by 4.4%, raising unemployment by 0.2 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 3.5%, with unemployment rising by 0.5 percentage points. State-level data to Sep-25 shows Victoria's employment grew by 1.08% year-on-year, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%. National employment forecasts from May 2025 project growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Wheelers Hill's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.7%% over five years and 13.7% over ten years.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

Wheelers Hill had a median taxpayer income of $46,153 and an average income of $71,803 according to AreaSearch's aggregation of postcode level ATO data for the financial year 2022. These figures are higher than national averages. Greater Melbourne, however, had a median income of $54,892 and an average income of $73,761 during this period. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.11% since the financial year 2022, estimated incomes for March 2025 would be approximately $50,819 (median) and $79,062 (average). According to census data, household income ranks at the 54th percentile ($1,818 weekly), while personal income sits at the 32nd percentile. The earnings band of $1,500 - 2,999 captures 26.9% of Wheelers Hill's population (5,668 individuals). This aligns with regional trends where 32.8% fall within this category. After housing costs, 85.6% of income remains for other expenses. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Wheelers Hill is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Wheelers Hill's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census evaluation, consisted of 84.9% houses and 15.2% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This contrasts with Melbourne metro's 69.6% houses and 30.3% other dwellings. Home ownership in Wheelers Hill stood at 52.3%, compared to mortgaged dwellings at 33.3% and rented ones at 14.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,500, surpassing Melbourne metro's average of $2,383. The median weekly rent figure for Wheelers Hill was recorded at $481, higher than Melbourne metro's $440. Nationally, Wheelers Hill's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Wheelers Hill features high concentrations of family households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 78.6 percent of all households, including 38.6 percent couples with children, 29.4 percent couples without children, and 9.5 percent single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 21.4 percent, with lone person households at 19.8 percent and group households comprising 1.6 percent of the total. The median household size is 2.7 people, which corresponds to the Greater Melbourne average.

Wheelers Hill shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational attainment in Wheelers Hill is high, with 41.6% of residents aged 15+ holding university qualifications compared to 29.8% in the SA4 region and 30.4% nationally. Bachelor degrees are most common at 26.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (11.9%) and graduate diplomas (3.2%). Vocational pathways account for 23.8% of qualifications, with advanced diplomas at 11.3% and certificates at 12.5%. Educational participation is notable, with 28.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 8.7% in primary education, 8.2% in secondary education, and 6.7% pursuing tertiary education. There are nine schools operating within Wheelers Hill, educating approximately 3,650 students. The area demonstrates significant socio-educational advantages and academic achievement (ICSEA: 1103). The educational mix includes six primary schools, one secondary school, and two K-12 schools. Note: where schools show 'n/a' for enrolments, please refer to the parent campus.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 105 active transport stops in Wheelers Hill, serving buses only. These stops are covered by 32 unique routes, offering a total of 5,699 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated good, with residents located an average of 215 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency stands at 814 trips daily across all routes, translating to around 54 weekly trips per individual stop.

Wheelers Hill's residents are relatively healthy in comparison to broader Australia with a fairly standard level of common health conditions seen across both young and old age cohorts

Wheelers Hill's health metrics closely match national benchmarks.

Common health conditions seen across both young and old age cohorts are fairly standard. The rate of private health cover is very high at approximately 55% of the total population (~11,652 people). The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and asthma, impacting 7.9 and 5.9% of residents respectively. Seventy-point-five percent declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 75.3% across Greater Melbourne. Thirty-point-five percent of residents are aged 65 and over (6,428 people), higher than the 17.5% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, performing better than the general population in health metrics.

Wheelers Hill is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Wheelers Hill, as per the 2016 Census, had a high cultural diversity index with 48.0% of its residents speaking a language other than English at home and 48.3% being born overseas. Christianity was the predominant religion in Wheelers Hill, making up 50.3% of the population. Notably, Buddhism was overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne, comprising 6.4% versus 7.9%.

The top three ancestry groups based on country of birth of parents were Chinese at 20.8%, English at 16.0%, and Australian at 13.7%. Some ethnic groups showed notable differences in representation: Sri Lankan was slightly overrepresented at 1.9% versus 2.1%, Greek at 5.3% versus 5.6%, and Korean at 0.8% versus 1.1%.

Wheelers Hill hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

At 48 years, Wheelers Hill's median age is significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years, which is also older than Australia's median age of 38 years. The age profile shows that residents aged 75-84 years are particularly prominent, making up 11.7% of the population, compared to the national average of 6%. Meanwhile, the 25-34 age group comprises only 7.9%, which is smaller than Greater Melbourne's proportion. From 2021 onwards, the 15-24 age group has grown from 11.5% to 12.7%, while the 85+ cohort has increased from 5.7% to 6.8%. Conversely, the 65-74 age group has declined from 13.0% to 12.0%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic changes in Wheelers Hill. The 85+ cohort is projected to grow by 83%, adding 1,178 residents and reaching a total of 2,603. Residents aged 65 and above will drive 77% of the population growth, emphasizing the trend of demographic aging. However, population declines are projected for both the 25-34 age group and the 0-4 age cohort.