Wheelers Hill

An assessment of population growth drivers in Wheelers Hill reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Wheelers Hill's population is 20,102 as of November 2025. This figure shows a decrease from the 2021 Census count of 20,652 people, a drop of 550 individuals (2.7%). The change is inferred using estimated resident population data from ABS for June 2024 and address validation since the Census date. The population density ratio is 1,925 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration primarily drove recent population growth in the area.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered, it utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 with adjustments made via weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, the area is expected to increase by 1,545 persons based on latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a gain of 13.6% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Wheelers Hill according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Wheelers Hill has averaged approximately 72 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 363 homes. As of FY-26, 27 approvals have been recorded. The average population increase per dwelling built in Wheelers Hill between FY-21 and FY-25 was 0.4 people per year. This indicates that new supply is keeping pace with or exceeding demand, providing ample buyer choice and capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts.

The average construction value of new properties is $675,000, suggesting a focus on the premium segment. In FY-26, there have been $17.8 million in commercial approvals, demonstrating moderate levels of commercial development. Comparatively, Wheelers Hill records about 65% of Greater Melbourne's building activity per person and ranks among the 41st percentile nationally when measured against other areas assessed. This suggests somewhat limited buyer options while strengthening demand for established properties. This level is also below average nationally, reflecting the area's maturity and possible planning constraints.

Recent construction in Wheelers Hill comprises 68% standalone homes and 32% medium to high-density housing, with a growing mix of townhouses and apartments providing options across different price points. This represents a notable shift from the existing housing composition, currently at 85% houses, indicating decreasing availability of developable sites and reflecting changing lifestyles and demand for more diverse, affordable housing options. As of around 413 people per approval, Wheelers Hill indicates a mature market. Looking ahead, AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate projects the area to grow by 2,728 residents through to 2041. Development is keeping pace with projected growth, though increasing competition among buyers is expected as the population expands.

Wheelers Hill has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 49thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified eight projects likely affecting the region. Notable ones are HomeCo Brandon Park Redevelopment, Collegium Avenue Townhouses, 855-869 Ferntree Gully Road Townhouses, and Rowville Rail/Light Rail Project. The following details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The labour market strength in Wheelers Hill positions it well ahead of most Australian regions

Wheelers Hill has an educated workforce with strong representation in professional services. Its unemployment rate was 1.9% as of September 2025.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 4.5%. In September 2025, 10,482 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 2.8% lower than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%. Workforce participation in Wheelers Hill was 53.4%, significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, professional & technical services, and retail trade.

Wholesale trade shows strong specialization with an employment share 1.6 times the regional level. Conversely, transport, postal & warehousing has lower representation at 3.1% compared to the regional average of 5.2%. The area offers limited local employment opportunities as indicated by Census data. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment increased by 4.5% while labour force grew by 4.8%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.2 percentage points. Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 3.0% over the same period. State-level data as of 25-Nov-25 shows Victoria's employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%. National employment forecasts from May-25 suggest national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Wheelers Hill's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, assuming population projections remain constant.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

Wheelers Hill SA2 had a median taxpayer income of $46,153 and an average of $71,803 in the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2022. This was higher than national averages, with Greater Melbourne's median income being $54,892 and average income at $73,761. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, estimated incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $51,765 (median) and $80,534 (average). Census data indicated household income ranked at the 54th percentile ($1,818 weekly), while personal income was at the 32nd percentile. The $1,500 - 2,999 earnings band captured 26.9% of the community (5,407 individuals). After housing costs, 85.6% of income remained for other expenses, and the area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 8th decile.

Wheelers Hill is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Wheelers Hill, as per the latest Census, consisted of 84.9% houses and 15.2% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's 69.6% houses and 30.3% other dwellings. Home ownership in Wheelers Hill stood at 52.3%, with the remaining dwellings being mortgaged (33.3%) or rented (14.4%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,500, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $2,383. The median weekly rent figure was recorded at $481, compared to Melbourne metro's $440. Nationally, Wheelers Hill's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Wheelers Hill features high concentrations of family households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 78.6% of all households, consisting of 38.6% couples with children, 29.4% couples without children, and 9.5% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 21.4%, with lone person households at 19.8% and group households making up 1.6% of the total. The median household size is 2.7 people, which aligns with the Greater Melbourne average.

Wheelers Hill shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational attainment in Wheelers Hill is notable, with 41.6% of residents aged 15+ having university qualifications compared to the SA4 region's 29.8% and Australia's 30.4%. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 26.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (11.9%) and graduate diplomas (3.2%). Vocational pathways account for 23.8%, with advanced diplomas at 11.3% and certificates at 12.5%. Educational participation is high, with 28.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 8.7% in primary education, 8.2% in secondary education, and 6.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 105 active transport stops in Wheelers Hill, all bus stops. These are served by 32 different routes, offering a total of 5699 weekly passenger trips. Transport access is rated good, with residents typically located 215 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 814 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 54 weekly trips per individual stop.

Wheelers Hill's residents are relatively healthy in comparison to broader Australia with a fairly standard level of common health conditions seen across both young and old age cohorts

Wheelers Hill's health metrics closely align with national benchmarks.

Common health conditions are seen across both young and old age cohorts at a fairly standard level. Approximately 55% of the total population (~11,116 people) have private health cover, which is very high. The most prevalent medical conditions in the area are arthritis and asthma, affecting 7.9 and 5.9% of residents respectively. 70.5% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 75.3% across Greater Melbourne. As of 2016, 30.5% of residents are aged 65 and over (6,133 people), which is higher than the 17.5% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors in Wheelers Hill are above average, performing better than the general population in health metrics.

Wheelers Hill is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Wheelers Hill has a high level of cultural diversity, with 48.0% of its population speaking a language other than English at home and 48.3% born overseas. Christianity is the predominant religion in Wheelers Hill, making up 50.3% of the population. However, Buddhism is overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne, comprising 6.4% versus 7.9%.

The top three ancestry groups are Chinese (20.8%), English (16.0%), and Australian (13.7%). There are notable divergences in certain ethnic groups: Sri Lankan is slightly overrepresented at 1.9%, Greek at 5.3%, and Korean at 0.8%.

Wheelers Hill hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Wheelers Hill's median age is 48 years, significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and Australia's national average of 38 years. The age profile shows that residents aged 75-84 make up 11.7% of the population, which is notably higher than the national average of 6%. Meanwhile, residents aged 25-34 comprise only 7.9%, lower than Greater Melbourne's figure. From 2021 to present, the 15-24 age group has increased from 11.5% to 12.7%, while the 85+ cohort has grown from 5.7% to 6.8%. Conversely, the 65-74 age group has declined slightly from 13.0% to 12.0%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate substantial demographic changes. The 85+ cohort is projected to grow by 92%, adding 1,244 residents to reach a total of 2,603. Residents aged 65 and above will drive 69% of the population growth, reflecting the trend towards an aging population. However, population declines are expected for the 0-4 and 35-44 age cohorts.