Wheelers Hill

An assessment of population growth drivers in Wheelers Hill reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Wheelers Hill's population, as of May 2026, is approximately 21,289. This figure represents an increase of 637 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 20,652. The ABS estimated resident population in June 2025 was 21,281, indicating a growth rate of about 3.1%. This results in a population density of 2,039 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration primarily drove this population growth.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, Wheelers Hill is expected to increase by approximately 1,445 persons based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a growth rate of about 6.8% over 16 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Wheelers Hill according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Wheelers Hill averaged approximately 72 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 363 homes. As of FY-26, 47 approvals have been recorded. On average, 0.4 people moved to the area per year for each dwelling built between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating that new supply is meeting or exceeding demand. The average construction value of these dwellings was $675,000, suggesting a focus on premium properties.

In FY-26, there have been $17.8 million in commercial approvals, showing moderate levels of commercial development. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Wheelers Hill records about 66% of the building activity per person and ranks in the 41st percentile nationally, suggesting somewhat limited buyer options but strengthening demand for established properties. Recent construction comprises 68.0% standalone homes and 32.0% medium and high-density housing, indicating a shift from the area's existing housing composition of 85.0% houses. This suggests decreasing availability of developable sites and reflects changing lifestyles and demand for more diverse housing options. At around 413 people per approval, Wheelers Hill indicates a mature market.

By 2041, it is projected to grow by 1,437 residents, and at current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Wheelers Hill has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 39thth percentile nationally

AreaSearch has identified eight projects that could impact the area's performance. Key projects include HomeCo Brandon Park Redevelopment, Collegium Avenue Townhouses, 855-869 Ferntree Gully Road Townhouses, and Rowville Rail/Light Rail Project. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis reveals Wheelers Hill significantly outperforming the majority of regions assessed nationwide

Wheelers Hill has a highly educated workforce with strong representation in professional services. Its unemployment rate was 2.0% as of December 2025. Employment grew by an estimated 4.4% over the past year.

As of December 2025, 10,580 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 2.8%, compared to Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%. Workforce participation in Wheelers Hill was 58.9%, lower than Greater Melbourne's 69.9%. According to Census responses, 35.7% of residents worked from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, professional & technical services, and retail trade.

Wholesale trade shows strong specialization with an employment share 1.6 times the regional level, while transport, postal & warehousing has lower representation at 3.1% compared to the regional average of 5.2%. Over the year to December 2025, employment increased by 4.4%, labour force by 4.8%, raising the unemployment rate by 0.3 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 2.4%, labour force growth of 2.8%, and a rise in unemployment of 0.3 percentage points. National employment forecasts from May-25 project an increase of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Wheelers Hill's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localized population projections.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

The Wheelers Hill SA2 had a median taxpayer income of $48,453 and an average of $70,301 in the financial year 2023, according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. This was higher than the national average for that year. Greater Melbourne's median income was $57,688 with an average of $75,164 during the same period. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes as of March 2026 would be approximately $53,114 (median) and $77,064 (average). Census data indicated that household income ranked at the 54th percentile ($1,818 weekly), while personal income was at the 32nd percentile. The $1,500 - 2,999 earnings band included 26.9% of the community (5,726 individuals). After housing costs, 85.6% of income remained for other expenses. The area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 8th decile.

Wheelers Hill is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Wheelers Hill, as per the latest Census evaluation, 84.9% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 15.2% comprising semi-detached properties, apartments, and other dwelling types. This compares to Melbourne metro's figures of 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Wheelers Hill stood at 52.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 33.3% and rented ones at 14.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,500, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. Weekly rent in Wheelers Hill was recorded at $481, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Wheelers Hill's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, with rents substantially above the national figure of $375.

Wheelers Hill features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 78.6% of all households, including 38.6% couples with children, 29.4% couples without children, and 9.5% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 21.4%, with lone person households at 19.8% and group households comprising 1.6%. The median household size is 2.7 people, larger than Greater Melbourne's average of 2.6.

Wheelers Hill shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

In Wheelers Hill, educational attainment is notably higher than broader benchmarks. Among residents aged 15 and above, 41.6% have university qualifications, compared to 29.8% in the SA4 region and 30.4% nationally. University graduates make up 26.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 11.9% and graduate diplomas at 3.2%. Vocational pathways account for 23.8% of qualifications, with advanced diplomas at 11.3% and certificates at 12.5%.

Educational participation is high, with 28.3% currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.7% in primary education, 8.2% in secondary education, and 6.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Wheelers Hill indicates that there are 105 active transport stops currently operating. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, with a total of 30 individual routes providing service to the area. Collectively, these routes facilitate 4,201 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of transport in Wheelers Hill is rated as good, with residents typically located approximately 215 meters from their nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward for work or other purposes. The dominant mode of transportation remains the car at 90%, while 6% of residents use the train.

On average, there are 1.6 vehicles per dwelling in Wheelers Hill, which is above the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, a high proportion of residents, specifically 35.7%, work from home, which may be reflective of COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency averages 600 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 40 weekly trips per individual stop. A map accompanies the analysis, showing the 100 nearest stops to the location's centrepoint.

Wheelers Hill's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Wheelers Hill shows excellent health outcomes based on AreaSearch's evaluation, with younger cohorts having very low prevalence of common health conditions. The private health cover rate stands at approximately 54%, higher than the SA2 average (~11,474 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 56.7%.

Arthritis and asthma are the most prevalent medical conditions, affecting 7.9% and 5.9% of residents respectively, with 70.5% reporting no medical ailments, slightly lower than Greater Melbourne's 72.6%. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 30.2% (6,427 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 15.0%. Health outcomes among seniors in Wheelers Hill are above average but rank lower nationally than the broader population.

Wheelers Hill is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Wheelers Hill has a high level of cultural diversity, with 48.0% of its population speaking a language other than English at home and 48.3% born overseas. The predominant religion in Wheelers Hill is Christianity, accounting for 50.3% of the population. However, Buddhism is more prevalent in Wheelers Hill compared to Greater Melbourne, with 6.4% versus 4.2%.

The top three ancestry groups based on country of birth of parents are Chinese at 20.8%, English at 16.0%, and Australian at 13.7%. Notably, Sri Lankan (1.9%), Greek (5.3%), and Korean (0.8%) ethnicities are overrepresented in Wheelers Hill compared to the regional averages of 0.8%, 2.7%, and 0.3% respectively.

Wheelers Hill hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Wheelers Hill's median age is 48 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and Australia's national average of 38 years. The age profile shows that residents aged 75-84 are particularly prominent, making up 11.7% of the population, while those aged 25-34 make up only 8.1%. This is higher than the national average for the 75-84 age group, which is 6.1%. Since 2021, the 15 to 24 age group has grown from 11.5% to 12.9%, and the 85+ cohort has increased from 5.7% to 6.9%. However, the 65 to 74 cohort has declined from 13.0% to 11.6%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate that Wheelers Hill's 85+ cohort is projected to grow by 68%, adding 1,002 residents to reach a total of 2,478. Residents aged 65 and above will drive 77% of the population growth in Wheelers Hill, highlighting the demographic aging trend. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 15 to 24 and 0 to 4 age cohorts.