Wheelers Hill
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Wheelers Hill reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Wheelers Hill's population was 20,652 as of the 2021 Census. By November 2025, it is estimated to be around 20,102, a decrease of 550 people (2.7%). This decline is inferred from ABS' estimated resident population of 21,290 in June 2024 and address validation since the Census date. The population density as of November 2025 is 1,925 persons per square kilometer. Overseas migration was the primary driver of population growth in recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted employing weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. Based on latest population numbers, Wheelers Hill is expected to increase by 1,545 persons by 2041, recording a gain of 13.6% over the 17-year period. This growth trend is just below the median of national statistical areas.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Wheelers Hill according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Wheelers Hill has averaged approximately 72 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 363 homes. In FY-26 so far, 19 approvals have been recorded. Between FY-21 and FY-25, an average of only 0.4 people moved to the area for each dwelling built. This indicates that new supply is keeping pace with or exceeding demand, offering ample buyer choice and creating capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts.

The average construction value of new properties is $675,000, demonstrating a focus on the premium segment. In FY-26, there have been $17.8 million in commercial approvals, indicating moderate levels of commercial development. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Wheelers Hill records about 65% of building activity per person and places among the 41st percentile of areas assessed nationally. This suggests somewhat limited buyer options while strengthening demand for established properties. The recent construction mix comprises 68.0% standalone homes and 32.0% medium and high-density housing, with a growing mix of townhouses and apartments providing options across different price points.

This represents a notable shift from the area's existing housing composition, currently at 85.0% houses. At around 413 people per approval, Wheelers Hill indicates a mature market. Looking ahead, it is expected to grow by 2,728 residents through to 2041. Development is keeping reasonable pace with projected growth, though buyers may face increasing competition as the population expands.

Wheelers Hill has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified eight projects likely to affect the region. Notable ones are HomeCo Brandon Park Redevelopment, Collegium Avenue Townhouses, 855-869 Ferntree Gully Road Townhouses, and Rowville Rail/Light Rail Project. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The labour market strength in Wheelers Hill positions it well ahead of most Australian regions

Wheelers Hill has a highly educated workforce with strong representation in professional services. Its unemployment rate was 1.8% as of June 2025, which is lower than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%.

The area experienced an estimated employment growth of 4.1% over the past year. As of June 2025, 10,542 residents were employed with a workforce participation rate of 53.4%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, professional & technical services, and retail trade. Wholesale trade shows strong specialization with an employment share of 1.6 times the regional level, while transport, postal & warehousing has lower representation at 3.1% versus the regional average of 5.2%.

Employment increased by 4.1% over the 12 months to June 2025, while labour force increased by 4.4%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.2 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, released in May 2025, project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Wheelers Hill's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.7% over five years and 13.7% over ten years.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

Wheelers Hill had a median taxpayer income of $46,153 and an average income of $71,803 according to AreaSearch's aggregation of postcode level ATO data for the financial year 2022. This was higher than national averages but similar to Greater Melbourne's median income of $54,892 and average income of $73,761. By September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $51,765 (median) and $80,534 (average), based on a 12.16% growth in wages since 2022. Census data shows household income ranks at the 54th percentile ($1,818 weekly) and personal income at the 32nd percentile. The $1,500 - $2,999 earnings band includes 26.9% of Wheelers Hill's community (5,407 individuals), consistent with regional levels at 32.8%. After housing costs, 85.6% of income remains for other expenses. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Wheelers Hill is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Wheelers Hill, as per the latest Census evaluation, 84.9% of dwellings were houses with the remaining 15.2% being semi-detached, apartments, or other types of dwellings. This compares to Melbourne metropolitan area's figures of 69.6% houses and 30.3% other dwellings. Home ownership in Wheelers Hill stood at 52.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 33.3% and rented ones at 14.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,500, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $2,383. The median weekly rent in Wheelers Hill was recorded at $481, compared to Melbourne metro's $440. Nationally, Wheelers Hill's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Wheelers Hill features high concentrations of family households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 78.6% of all households, including 38.6% couples with children, 29.4% couples without children, and 9.5% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 21.4%, with lone person households at 19.8% and group households making up 1.6%. The median household size is 2.7 people, which aligns with the Greater Melbourne average.

Wheelers Hill shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational attainment in Wheelers Hill is notably high, with 41.6% of residents aged 15+ holding university qualifications compared to the SA4 region's 29.8% and Australia's 30.4%. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 26.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (11.9%) and graduate diplomas (3.2%). Vocational pathways account for 23.8%, with advanced diplomas at 11.3% and certificates at 12.5%. Educational participation is high, with 28.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 8.7% in primary, 8.2% in secondary, and 6.7% pursuing tertiary education. There are nine schools operating within Wheelers Hill, educating approximately 3,650 students. The area shows significant socio-educational advantages with an ICSEA score of 1103. The educational mix includes six primary, one secondary, and two K-12 schools.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 105 active transport stops in Wheelers Hill, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 32 different routes that together facilitate 5,699 weekly passenger trips. Residential accessibility to public transport is rated good, with residents on average located 215 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 814 trips per day across all routes, resulting in approximately 54 weekly trips per individual stop.

Wheelers Hill's residents are relatively healthy in comparison to broader Australia with a fairly standard level of common health conditions seen across both young and old age cohorts

Wheelers Hill's health metrics closely align with national benchmarks.

Common health conditions are seen across both young and old age cohorts at a standard level. Private health cover is high, with approximately 55% of the total population (~11,116 people) having it. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (7.9%) and asthma (5.9%). A majority, 70.5%, report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 75.3% in Greater Melbourne. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 30.5% (6,133 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 17.5%. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, outperforming the general population in health metrics.

Wheelers Hill is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Wheelers Hill has a high level of cultural diversity, with 48.0% of its population speaking a language other than English at home and 48.3% born overseas. Christianity is the dominant religion in Wheelers Hill, accounting for 50.3% of the population. However, Buddhism is notably overrepresented, comprising 6.4% compared to Melbourne's average of 7.9%.

The top three ancestry groups are Chinese (20.8%), English (16.0%), and Australian (13.7%). Some ethnic groups show significant differences: Sri Lankan is overrepresented at 1.9%, Greek at 5.3%, and Korean at 0.8%.

Wheelers Hill hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Wheelers Hill's median age is 48 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and Australia's average of 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 75-84 are particularly prominent, making up 11.7% of the population, compared to 6.0% nationally and a smaller proportion of those aged 25-34 at 7.9%. From 2021 to present, the 15-24 age group has increased from 11.5% to 12.7%, while the 85+ cohort has grown from 5.7% to 6.8%. Conversely, the 65-74 age group has declined from 13.0% to 12.0%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate substantial demographic changes for Wheelers Hill. The 85+ cohort is projected to grow by 92%, adding 1,244 residents to reach 2,603. Residents aged 65 and above will drive 69% of population growth, reflecting aging trends. Conversely, populations in the 0-4 and 35-44 age groups are projected to decline.