Clayton (North) - Notting Hill
Statistical Area - sa2

Population growth drivers in Clayton (North) - Notting Hill are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Clayton (North) - Notting Hill's population was around 14,143 as of August 2025. This reflected an increase of 4,314 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 9,829. The change was inferred from ABS estimates and validated new addresses between June 2024 and the Census date. This resulted in a density ratio of 2,704 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile nationally according to AreaSearch's assessment. Clayton (North) - Notting Hill's growth of 43.9% since the 2021 census exceeded both national (8.6%) and state averages, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration was the primary driver of this population increase.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 with adjustments made using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, a significant population increase is forecasted in the top quartile of statistical areas nationally, with Clayton (North) - Notting Hill expected to expand by 6,148 persons, recording a gain of 43.5% over the 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Clayton (North) - Notting Hill when compared nationally

Clayton North - Notting Hill has seen approximately 32 dwellings granted development approval annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, around 160 homes were approved, with an additional 10 approved so far in FY26. On average, about 15.1 people have moved to the area each year for every dwelling constructed over these five years.

This indicates substantial demand outstripping supply, likely leading to increased buyer competition and pricing pressures. The average construction cost of new dwellings is $508,000. In FY26, commercial approvals totaling $13.0 million have been registered, suggesting steady commercial investment activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Clayton North - Notting Hill experiences roughly half the building activity per person and ranks in the 31st percentile nationally for assessed areas, offering more limited housing choices for buyers and supporting demand for existing properties. This lower level of development activity reflects market maturity and potential development constraints.

Recent construction comprises 27% detached dwellings and 73% attached dwellings, favoring higher-density living which provides more affordable entry points suitable for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. With approximately 548 people moving to the area per dwelling approval, Clayton North - Notting Hill exhibits a highly mature market. Population projections indicate that by 2041, the area will gain around 6,148 residents. If current development rates persist, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and driving stronger price growth.

Clayton (North) - Notting Hill has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

A total of 33 infrastructure projects have been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area. Among these key projects are the Monash Accommodation Student Housing Development, the Monash University Campus Centre Redevelopment, the Suburban Rail Loop East - Monash Station project, and the Monash University Clayton Campus Student Accommodation development. The following list details those projects considered most relevant.

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AreaSearch analysis of employment trends sees Clayton (North) - Notting Hill performing better than 90% of local markets assessed across Australia

Clayton North - Notting Hill, as of June 2025, has an unemployment rate of 1.6%. This is lower than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%.

The area experienced employment growth of 4.4% over the past year. There are 7,892 residents in work, with workforce participation at 56.3%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Employment is concentrated in education & training, health care & social assistance, and accommodation & food sectors. The area has a strong specialization in education & training, with an employment share of 1.8 times the regional level.

Conversely, construction shows lower representation at 4.1% compared to the regional average of 9.7%. There are 2.3 workers for every resident, indicating it functions as an employment hub attracting workers from surrounding areas. Over the 12 months to June 2025, employment increased by 4.4%, keeping the unemployment rate stable at 3.0% below Greater Melbourne's rate. Jobs and Skills Australia forecasts national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Clayton North - Notting Hill's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.5% over five years and 13.5% over ten years.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows Clayton (North) - Notting Hill had a median taxpayer income of $32,520 and an average of $40,507. This is below the national average. Greater Melbourne's median was $54,892 with an average of $73,761. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, estimates for September 2025 would be approximately $36,474 (median) and $45,433 (average). The 2021 Census data indicates Clayton (North) - Notting Hill's household, family, and personal incomes fall between the 4th and 19th percentiles nationally. The earnings profile shows 29.1% of locals (4,115 people) earn between $1,500 and $2,999, similar to the metropolitan region at 32.8%. Housing affordability pressures are severe with only 74.2% of income remaining, ranking at the 11th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Clayton (North) - Notting Hill features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Clayton (North) - Notting Hill, as per the latest Census evaluation, 32.4% of dwellings were houses while 67.6% consisted of other types such as semi-detached properties and apartments. This contrasts with Melbourne metro's figures of 69.6% houses and 30.3% other dwellings. Home ownership in Clayton (North) - Notting Hill stood at 15.7%, lower than Melbourne metro, with mortgaged dwellings at 18.3% and rented ones at 66.0%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,860, below Melbourne metro's average of $2,383. Median weekly rent in Clayton (North) - Notting Hill was $380, compared to Melbourne metro's $440. Nationally, Clayton (North) - Notting Hill's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Clayton (North) - Notting Hill features high concentrations of group households and lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 46.7% of all households, including 13.9% couples with children, 22.1% couples without children, and 7.2% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 53.3%, with lone person households at 33.3% and group households comprising 19.9%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.7.

The educational profile of Clayton (North) - Notting Hill exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Educational attainment in Clayton (North), Notting Hill shows a significant advantage with 50.2% of residents aged 15+ holding university qualifications, compared to 29.8% in the SA4 region and 30.4% nationally as of 2021. Bachelor degrees are most common at 28.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (20.0%) and graduate diplomas (1.7%). Vocational pathways account for 16.6% of qualifications among those aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 9.0% and certificates at 7.6%. Educational participation is high, with 55.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education as of the latest data available.

This includes 43.7% in tertiary education, 3.1% in primary education, and 2.3% pursuing secondary education. The area has two educational institutions serving 869 students: John Monash Science School and Clayton North Primary School. As of 2021, the area demonstrates above-average socio-educational conditions with an ICSEA score of 1093. Educational provision follows conventional lines, split between one primary and one secondary institution. However, limited local school capacity (6.1 places per 100 residents vs 15.8 regionally) means many families travel to nearby areas for schooling as of the latest data available.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 74 active transport stops operating within Clayton (North) - Notting Hill. These stops are serviced by 28 individual routes, collectively providing 12,303 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 206 meters from the nearest transport stop.

Service frequency averages 1,757 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 166 weekly trips per individual stop.

Clayton (North) - Notting Hill's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Clayton North - Notting Hill's health outcomes data shows notable results, with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age groups. Private health cover rate is extremely low at approximately 46%, covering around 6,435 people, compared to Greater Melbourne's 54.4% and the national average of 55.3%. Mental health issues and asthma are the most common medical conditions in the area, affecting 7.2% and 5.4% of residents respectively.

About 81.0% of residents report having no medical ailments, compared to Greater Melbourne's 75.3%. The area has 5.3% of residents aged 65 and over (752 people), lower than Greater Melbourne's 17.5%. Health outcomes among seniors require more attention than the broader population.

Clayton (North) - Notting Hill is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Clayton North, Notting Hill is one of the most culturally diverse areas in Australia, with 62.9% of its residents speaking a language other than English at home and 67.7% born overseas. Christianity is the predominant religion here, accounting for 27.1% of the population. Notably, Buddhism is more prevalent in Clayton North, Notting Hill compared to Greater Melbourne, with 9.4% versus 7.9%.

In terms of ancestry, the three most represented groups are Chinese (24.9%), Other (19.7%), and English (11.7%). Some ethnic groups show significant differences: Sri Lankan is overrepresented at 2.5%, Indian at 8.8%, and Vietnamese at 2.8%.

Clayton (North) - Notting Hill hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Clayton (North) - Notting Hill has a median age of 22 years, which is significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and Australia's average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Clayton (North) - Notting Hill has a higher concentration of residents aged 15-24 at 48.4%, but fewer residents aged 45-54 at 3.3%. This concentration of 15-24 year-olds is well above the national average of 12.5%. Between the 2021 Census and the present, the median age has decreased by 4 years from 26 to 22, indicating a shift towards a younger demographic. Key changes show that the 15-24 age group has grown from 37.2% to 48.4% of the population, while the 25-34 cohort has declined from 29.5% to 26.9%, and the 35-44 group has dropped from 9.3% to 7.3%. Demographic modeling suggests that Clayton (North) - Notting Hill's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041, with the 25-34 cohort projected to grow strongly at 73%, adding 2,794 residents to reach a total of 6,605.