Wheelers Hill

An assessment of population growth drivers in Wheelers Hill reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of November 2025, the estimated population of Wheelers Hill is around 20,102, a decrease of 550 people (2.7%) since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 20,652. This change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of the resident population at 21,290 following examination of ABS's latest ERP data release in June 2024 and address validation since the Census date. The population density ratio is 1,927 persons per square kilometer, above the national average assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration primarily drove recent population growth. AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022.

For areas not covered, AreaSearch uses VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, the suburb is expected to increase by 1,545 persons, reflecting a gain of 13.6% over the 17 years, based on aggregated SA2-level projections.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Wheelers Hill according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers from statistical area data, Wheelers Hill has experienced around 72 dwellings receiving development approval annually over the past five financial years. This totals an estimated 363 homes from FY-18 to FY-22. So far in FY-26, 19 approvals have been recorded. Over these five years, there was an average of 0.4 people moving to the area per dwelling built.

New supply has kept pace with or exceeded demand, offering ample buyer choice and creating capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts. The average construction cost value of new dwellings is $918,000, indicating a focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties. In FY-26, $17.8 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, demonstrating moderate levels of commercial development. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Wheelers Hill records about 65% of building activity per person and ranks among the 41st percentile of areas assessed nationally. This indicates more limited choices for buyers, supporting demand for existing dwellings.

New building activity shows 68.0% detached dwellings and 32.0% townhouses or apartments. This represents a notable shift from the area's existing housing composition (currently 85.0% houses), indicating decreasing availability of developable sites and reflecting changing lifestyles and demand for more diverse, affordable housing options. With around 406 people per dwelling approval, Wheelers Hill shows a developed market. Future projections show Wheelers Hill adding 2,728 residents by 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Building activity is keeping pace with growth projections, though buyers may experience heightened competition as the population grows.

Wheelers Hill has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified eight projects that could affect this region. Notable ones are HomeCo Brandon Park Redevelopment, Collegium Avenue Townhouses, 855-869 Ferntree Gully Road Townhouses, and Rowville Rail/Light Rail Project. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Wheelers Hill demonstrate exceptional strength compared to most Australian markets

Wheelers Hill has a highly educated workforce with strong representation in professional services. Its unemployment rate was 1.8% as of June 2025, lower than Greater Melbourne's 4.6%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 4.1%. There were 10,542 residents employed while the unemployment rate was 2.8% below Greater Melbourne's rate. Workforce participation in Wheelers Hill lagged at 53.4%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Leading employment industries include health care & social assistance, professional & technical services, and retail trade.

Wholesale trade is particularly strong with an employment share of 1.6 times the regional level, while transport, postal & warehousing is under-represented at 3.1% compared to Greater Melbourne's 5.2%. The area offers limited local employment opportunities as indicated by Census data. Over a 12-month period ending Sep-22, employment increased by 4.1% alongside labour force growth of 4.4%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.2 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 3.5% and labour force growth of 4.0%, with a 0.5 percentage point rise in unemployment. National employment forecasts from Sep-22 suggest Wheelers Hill's employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, based on industry-specific projections applied to the local employment mix.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 indicates Wheelers Hill's median income among taxpayers is $46,153 with an average of $71,803. This is above national averages and compares to Greater Melbourne's median of $54,892 and average of $73,761. As of September 2025, estimated incomes are approximately $51,765 (median) and $80,534 (average), based on a 12.16% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2022. Census data shows household income ranks at the 54th percentile ($1,818 weekly) and personal income at the 32nd percentile. Distribution data reveals that the $1,500 - 2,999 earnings band captures 26.9% of Wheelers Hill's community (5,407 individuals), similar to the broader area where this cohort represents 32.8%. After housing costs, 85.6% of income remains for other expenses and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Wheelers Hill is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

As per the latest Census evaluation in Wheelers Hill, 84.9% of dwellings were houses with the remaining 15.2% being semi-detached apartments or other types. This compares to Melbourne metro's figures of 69.6% houses and 30.3% other dwellings. Home ownership in Wheelers Hill stood at 52.3%, with mortgaged dwellings making up 33.3% and rented ones accounting for 14.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,500, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $2,383. Weekly rent in Wheelers Hill was recorded at $481 compared to Melbourne metro's $440. Nationally, Wheelers Hill's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Wheelers Hill features high concentrations of family households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 78.6% of all households, including 38.6% couples with children, 29.4% couples without children, and 9.5% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 21.4%, with lone person households at 19.8% and group households comprising 1.6%. The median household size is 2.7 people, which aligns with the Greater Melbourne average.

Wheelers Hill shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational attainment in Wheelers Hill is notably high, with 41.6% of residents aged 15 years and above holding university qualifications compared to the SA4 region's 29.8% and Australia's 30.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 26.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (11.9%) and graduate diplomas (3.2%). Vocational pathways account for 23.8% of qualifications among those aged 15 years and above, with advanced diplomas making up 11.3% and certificates 12.5%. Educational participation is high, with 28.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 8.7% in primary, 8.2% in secondary, and 6.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Wheelers Hill has a robust network of nine schools educating approximately 3,650 students. The area demonstrates significant socio-educational advantages and academic achievement, with an ICSEA score of 1103. The educational mix includes six primary, one secondary, and two K-12 schools. Note: for schools showing 'n/a' in enrolments, please refer to the parent campus.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 105 active transport stops in Wheelers Hill, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 32 different routes, together offering 5699 weekly passenger trips. Transport access is rated good, with residents usually located 215 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 814 trips per day across all routes, equating to about 54 weekly trips per individual stop.

Wheelers Hill's residents are relatively healthy in comparison to broader Australia with a fairly standard level of common health conditions seen across both young and old age cohorts

Wheelers Hill's health metrics closely align with national benchmarks.

Common health conditions are seen across both young and old age cohorts at a fairly standard level. Approximately 55% of the total population (~11,096 people) have private health cover, which is very high compared to other areas. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis and asthma, affecting 7.9 and 5.9% of residents respectively. Around 70.5% of residents claim to be completely free from medical ailments, slightly lower than the Greater Melbourne average of 75.3%. Wheelers Hill has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 30.5% (6,131 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 17.5%. Health outcomes among seniors in Wheelers Hill are above average, performing better than the general population in health metrics.

Wheelers Hill is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Wheelers Hill has high cultural diversity, with 48.0% speaking a language other than English at home and 48.3% born overseas. Christianity is the predominant religion, at 50.3%. Buddhism is overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne, at 6.4% vs 7.9%.

The top three ancestral groups are Chinese (20.8%), English (16.0%), and Australian (13.7%). Sri Lankan, Greek, and Hungarian groups show notable divergences in representation compared to regional averages.

Wheelers Hill hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Wheelers Hill's median age is 48 years, significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and Australia's national average of 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 75-84 are particularly prominent, making up 11.7% of the population, compared to the national average of 6%. Meanwhile, the 25-34 age group is smaller at 7.9%, compared to Greater Melbourne's figure. Between 2021 and present, the 15-24 age group has increased from 11.5% to 12.6%, while the 85+ cohort has grown from 5.7% to 6.8%. Conversely, the 65-74 age group has decreased from 13.0% to 12.0%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate substantial demographic changes for Wheelers Hill. The 85+ cohort is projected to grow by 90%, adding 1,235 residents to reach a total of 2,602. Residents aged 65 and above will drive 68% of the population growth, underscoring trends towards demographic aging. Conversely, populations in the 0-4 and 35-44 age groups are projected to decline.