Wheelers Hill

An assessment of population growth drivers in Wheelers Hill reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

The population of the Wheelers Hill statistical area (Lv2) is estimated at around 21,538 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 886 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 20,652 people. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of 21,285 residents following examination of ABS ERP data released in June 2024 and address validation since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 2,065 persons per square kilometer. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. According to aggregated SA2-level projections, the Wheelers Hill (SA2) is expected to increase by 1,545 persons to 2041, reflecting a gain of 6.0% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Wheelers Hill according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Wheelers Hill had around 72 dwellings receiving development approval annually over the past five financial years, totalling approximately 363 homes. As of FY-26, 34 approvals have been recorded. This equates to an average of 0.4 people moving to the area per dwelling built annually between FY-21 and FY-25. The average expected construction cost value for new dwellings is $918,000, indicating a focus on premium properties.

In FY-26, $17.8 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Wheelers Hill records around 65% of the building activity per person and ranks among the 41st percentile nationally for building activity, suggesting limited buyer choices and supporting demand for existing dwellings. New building activity comprises 68.0% detached dwellings and 32.0% townhouses or apartments, marking a shift from the area's current housing composition of 85.0% houses. With around 406 people per dwelling approval, Wheelers Hill indicates a developed market. Future projections estimate an addition of 1,292 residents by 2041, suggesting new housing supply should meet demand based on current development patterns.

Future projections show Wheelers Hill adding 1,292 residents by 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Wheelers Hill has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Infrastructure changes significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified eight projects potentially impacting the area. Notable ones are HomeCo Brandon Park Redevelopment, Collegium Avenue Townhouses, 855-869 Ferntree Gully Road Townhouses, and Rowville Rail/Light Rail Project. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Wheelers Hill ranks among the strongest 15% of areas evaluated nationally

Wheelers Hill has an educated workforce with professional services well-represented. The unemployment rate was 1.9% in the past year, with estimated employment growth of 4.5%.

As of September 2025, 10,482 residents were employed, with a 2.8% lower unemployment rate than Greater Melbourne's 4.7%. Workforce participation lagged at 53.4%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Leading industries included health care & social assistance, professional & technical services, and retail trade. Wholesale trade showed strong specialization with an employment share of 1.6 times the regional level.

Conversely, transport, postal & warehousing was under-represented at 3.1% compared to Greater Melbourne's 5.2%. Limited local employment opportunities were indicated by Census data. Over a year, employment increased by 4.5%, labour force by 4.8%, raising the unemployment rate by 0.2 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment grow by 3.0% and labour force by 3.3%, with an unemployment rate rise of 0.3 percentage points. State-level data to 25-Nov-25 showed VIC employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, adding 41,950 jobs, with a state unemployment rate of 4.7%. National employment forecasts from May-25 project national growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Wheelers Hill's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows Wheelers Hill's median income among taxpayers is $46,153. The average income in the suburb is $71,803. Both figures are above the national average. In Greater Melbourne, the median income is $57,688 and the average is $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Wheelers Hill would be approximately $49,961 (median) and $77,727 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals household income ranks at the 54th percentile ($1,818 weekly), while personal income sits at the 32nd percentile. Distribution data shows that 26.9% of the community earns between $1,500 and $2,999 (5,793 individuals). This aligns with the broader area where this cohort represents 32.8%. After housing costs, 85.6% of income remains for other expenses. The suburb's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Wheelers Hill is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Wheelers Hill, as per the latest Census, consisted of 84.9% houses and 15.2% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Melbourne metro's 69.6% houses and 30.3% other dwellings. Home ownership in Wheelers Hill was at 52.3%, with the rest either mortgaged (33.3%) or rented (14.4%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,500, above Melbourne metro's average of $2,383. The median weekly rent was $481, compared to Melbourne metro's $440. Nationally, Wheelers Hill's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Wheelers Hill features high concentrations of family households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 78.6% of all households, including 38.6% couples with children, 29.4% couples without children, and 9.5% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 21.4%, composed of 19.8% lone person households and 1.6% group households. The median household size is 2.7 people, aligning with the Greater Melbourne average.

Wheelers Hill shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Wheelers Hill residents aged 15+ have a higher proportion with university qualifications than the broader SA4 region or Australia. Specifically, 41.6% of Wheelers Hill residents hold such qualifications compared to 29.8% in the SA4 region and 30.4% nationally. Bachelor degrees are most common at 26.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (11.9%) and graduate diplomas (3.2%). Vocational pathways account for 23.8% of qualifications, with advanced diplomas at 11.3% and certificates at 12.5%.

Educational participation is high in Wheelers Hill, with 28.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.7% in primary education, 8.2% in secondary education, and 6.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Wheelers Hill has 105 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 30 different routes that together facilitate 4,201 weekly passenger trips. The transport accessibility in the area is rated as good, with residents on average located 215 meters from their nearest stop.

Across all routes, there is an average service frequency of 600 trips per day, which translates to approximately 40 weekly trips per individual stop.

Wheelers Hill's residents are relatively healthy in comparison to broader Australia with a fairly standard level of common health conditions seen across both young and old age cohorts

Wheelers Hill's health metrics closely match national benchmarks.

Common health conditions are seen across both young and old age cohorts at a standard level. The rate of private health cover is very high at approximately 55% (~11,888 people). The most common medical conditions are arthritis (7.9%) and asthma (5.9%). 70.5% declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 75.3% in Greater Melbourne. 30.5% of residents are aged 65 and over (6,569 people), higher than the 17.5% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, performing better than the general population in health metrics.

Wheelers Hill is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Wheelers Hill has a high level of cultural diversity, with 48.0% of its population speaking a language other than English at home and 48.3% born overseas. Christianity is the predominant religion in Wheelers Hill, accounting for 50.3% of people. Buddhism, however, is more prevalent in Wheelers Hill compared to Greater Melbourne, with 6.4% versus 7.9%.

The top three ancestry groups are Chinese (20.8%), English (16.0%), and Australian (13.7%). Some ethnic groups show notable differences: Sri Lankan is slightly overrepresented at 1.9%, Greek at 5.3%, and Hungarian at 0.4%.

Wheelers Hill hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Wheelers Hill's median age is 48 years, significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years, and Australia's average of 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 75-84 are particularly prominent, making up 11.7% of the population, compared to the national average of 6%. Meanwhile, the 25-34 age group is smaller at 7.9%, compared to Greater Melbourne's figure. Between 2021 and present, the 15-24 age group has grown from 11.5% to 12.6%, while the 85+ cohort has increased from 5.7% to 6.8%. Conversely, the 65-74 age group has declined from 13.0% to 12.0%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate substantial demographic changes. The 85+ cohort is projected to grow by 78%, adding 1,137 residents to reach 2,602. Residents aged 65 and above will drive 81% of population growth, demonstrating the trend towards an aging population. Conversely, populations in the 25-34 and 0-4 age groups are projected to decline.