Notting Hill

Population growth drivers in Notting Hill are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

The population of Notting Hill, as estimated by AreaSearch based on ABS data and new addresses validated since the 2021 Census, is around 4,281 as of November 2025. This represents an increase of 1,386 people (47.9%) compared to the previous population count of 2,895 in the 2021 Census. The current estimated resident population (ERP) is 4,244, as calculated by AreaSearch after examining the latest ERP data release from ABS in June 2024 and accounting for an additional 15 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 2,692 persons per square kilometer, placing Notting Hill in the upper quartile relative to other locations assessed by AreaSearch nationwide. The suburb's population growth rate of 47.9% since the 2021 census exceeds both the national average (8.9%) and the state average, positioning it as a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration was the primary driver behind this population increase during recent periods.

AreaSearch is utilizing ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 adjusted using weighted aggregation for areas not covered by the former data. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends indicate exceptional growth, with Notting Hill expected to grow by 1,894 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an overall increase of 33.4% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is slightly higher than average within Notting Hill when compared nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers in Notting Hill shows approximately 9 dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 46 homes. As of FY-26, 5 approvals have been recorded. This results in around 10.4 people moving to the area annually for each dwelling built between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating substantial demand outstripping supply. New properties are constructed at an average expected cost of $508,000.

In FY-26, there have been $5.3 million in commercial approvals, suggesting limited focus on commercial development. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Notting Hill has roughly half the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and ranks among the 43rd percentile nationally, leading to constrained buyer choice and interest in existing dwellings. New development consists of 33.0% detached houses and 67.0% townhouses or apartments, favouring compact living options. With around 382 people per dwelling approval, Notting Hill exhibits market maturity. AreaSearch estimates project a growth of 1,429 residents by 2041, potentially outpacing housing supply at current development rates and heightening buyer competition.

Looking ahead, Notting Hill is expected to grow by 1,429 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Notting Hill has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Local infrastructure changes significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified eight projects likely impacting the area. Notable projects include Monash University Campus Development Projects, Suburban Rail Loop East - Monash Station, Monash University Clayton Campus Student Accommodation, and Monash University Campus Centre Redevelopment. The following list details those most relevant:.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

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Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

Notting Hill's median income among taxpayers was $45,967 in financial year 2022. The average income stood at $57,257 during the same period. In Greater Melbourne, these figures were $54,892 and $73,761 respectively. By September 2025, estimates suggest median income will be approximately $51,557 and average income $64,219, based on a Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022. Census data indicates household, family, and personal incomes in Notting Hill rank modestly, between the 30th and 39th percentiles. In this area, 34.7% of individuals (1,485 people) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 income range, similar to the broader area's 32.8%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 80.4% of income remaining, ranking at the 36th percentile. Notting Hill's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Notting Hill features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Notting Hill, as per the latest Census, 45.0% of dwellings were houses while 54.9% consisted of other types such as semi-detached homes and apartments. This contrasts with Melbourne metropolitan area's dwelling structure which was 69.6% houses and 30.3% other dwellings. Home ownership in Notting Hill stood at 21.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 27.6% and rented ones at 50.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,876, lower than Melbourne metro's average of $2,383. The median weekly rent figure for Notting Hill was $371, compared to Melbourne metro's $440. Nationally, Notting Hill's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were lower than the national figure of $375.

Notting Hill features high concentrations of group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 59.1% of all households, including 22.0% couples with children, 25.3% couples without children, and 8.0% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 40.9%, with lone person households at 29.8% and group households comprising 11.7%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.7.

Educational achievement in Notting Hill places it within the top 10% nationally, reflecting strong academic performance and high qualification levels across the community

In Notting Hill, 55.4% of residents aged 15+ have university qualifications, exceeding the SA4 region's 29.8% and Australia's 30.4%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 30.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (22.1%) and graduate diplomas (2.4%). Vocational pathways account for 19.0%, with advanced diplomas at 10.1% and certificates at 8.9%. Educational participation is high, with 39.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education: 22.2% in tertiary, 6.5% in primary, and 4.5% in secondary.

Educational facilities may be located outside the immediate catchment boundaries.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Notting Hill has 16 operational public transport stops, all offering bus services. These stops are served by 12 distinct routes that facilitate a total of 2,366 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is deemed good, with residents generally situated 286 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 338 daily trips across all routes, amounting to around 147 weekly trips per individual stop.

Notting Hill's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with prevalence of common health conditions quite low across both younger and older age cohorts

Health outcomes data shows notable results across Notting Hill, with low prevalence of common health conditions across both younger and older age groups. Approximately 50% (~2,120 people) have private health cover, lower than Greater Melbourne's 54.4% and the national average of 55.3%. Asthma and mental health issues are most common, affecting 6.5% and 6.2% respectively.

Around 79.2% report no medical ailments, higher than Greater Melbourne's 75.3%. The area has 6.8% (291 people) aged 65 and over, lower than Greater Melbourne's 17.5%. However, health outcomes among seniors require more attention compared to the broader population.

Notting Hill is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Notting Hill has a high level of cultural diversity, with 58.9% of its population speaking a language other than English at home and 62.2% born overseas. Christianity is the main religion in Notting Hill, comprising 29.9% of the population. Buddhism is notably overrepresented, making up 13.4%, compared to the Greater Melbourne average of 7.9%.

The top three ancestry groups are Chinese at 22.1%, Other at 20.8% (higher than the regional average of 14.3%), and English at 13.1%. Sri Lankan, Indian, and Vietnamese populations are also notable, with percentages of 3.6%, 6.9%, and 3.1% respectively, differing from their respective regional averages.

Notting Hill hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

The median age in Notting Hill as of the 2021 Census was 26 years, which is notably lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and Australia's median of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, the 15-24 age cohort was significantly over-represented at 34.5% in Notting Hill, while the 45-54 age group was under-represented at 7.3%. This concentration of young adults aged 15-24 was well above the national average of 12.5%. Between the 2016 and 2021 Censuses, Notting Hill's median age decreased by 3.7 years, from 30 to 26, indicating a shift towards a younger demographic. Specifically, the proportion of residents aged 15-24 increased from 20.1% to 34.5%, while those aged 45-54 decreased from 8.9% to 7.3%. The 35-44 age group also saw a decrease, dropping from 14.6% to 13.2%. Population forecasts for Notting Hill in 2041 suggest significant demographic changes, with the 25-34 age cohort projected to expand considerably by 650 people (55%), growing from 1,172 to 1,823 residents.