Notting Hill

Population growth drivers in Notting Hill are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, the suburb of Notting Hill's population is estimated at around 4,763 as of May 2026. This reflects an increase of 1,868 people (64.5%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,895 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 4,731 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025 and an additional 20 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 2,995 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Notting Hill's 64.5% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the state (9.3%), along with the national average, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the suburb was primarily driven by overseas migration, which was essentially the sole driver of population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. As we examine future population trends, a significant population increase in the top quartile of Australian statistical areas is forecast, with the suburb expected to grow by 1,794 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 37.0% in total over the 16 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Notting Hill according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Notting Hill has seen approximately eight dwelling approvals per year based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated forty-one homes. In the current financial year FY-26, ten approvals have been recorded. On average, 24.3 people move to the area annually for each dwelling built between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating a significant demand-supply gap which may intensify buyer competition and pricing pressures. The average construction cost of new properties is $508,000, reflecting a focus on premium segment development.

Commercial development approvals in the area this year amount to $530,000. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Notting Hill has 57.0% less development activity per person, suggesting potential constraints and increased demand for existing dwellings. New developments consist of 25.0% detached houses and 75.0% townhouses or apartments, indicating a shift from the area's current housing composition of 45.0% houses. The location has approximately 759 people per dwelling approval, reflecting an established market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Notting Hill is projected to grow by 1,762 residents by 2041. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to keep pace with population growth, potentially exacerbating buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Looking ahead, Notting Hill is expected to grow by 1,762 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Notting Hill has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Seven projects identified by AreaSearch are expected to impact the area, including major ones like Suburban Rail Loop East - Monash Station, Monash University Clayton Campus Student Accommodation, Monash University Campus Centre Redevelopment, and Victorian Heart Hospital.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

Notting Hill suburb has lower income levels compared to national averages, as per latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. Its median income among taxpayers is $45,967 and average income stands at $57,257. Greater Melbourne's figures are $57,688 and $75,164 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes as of March 2026 would be approximately $50,389 (median) and $62,765 (average). Census data shows household, family and personal incomes rank modestly in Notting Hill, between the 30th and 39th percentiles. Income distribution reveals 34.7% of population (1,652 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 range, similar to broader area trends at 32.8%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 80.4% of income remaining, ranking at the 36th percentile. The suburb's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Notting Hill features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

As per the latest Census evaluation in Notting Hill, 45.0% of dwellings were houses while 54.9% comprised semi-detached properties, apartments, and other dwellings. This contrasts with Melbourne metro's figures of 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. In terms of home ownership, Notting Hill had a lower rate at 21.5%, with mortgaged dwellings accounting for 27.6% and rented ones making up 50.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,876, below Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. The median weekly rent figure stood at $371 compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Notting Hill's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863 while rents were lower than the national figure of $375.

Notting Hill features high concentrations of group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 59.1% of all households, including 22.0% couples with children, 25.3% couples without children, and 8.0% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 40.9%, with lone person households at 29.8% and group households making up 11.7%. The median household size is 2.3 people, smaller than Greater Melbourne's average of 2.6.

Educational achievement in Notting Hill places it within the top 10% nationally, reflecting strong academic performance and high qualification levels across the community

Educational attainment in Notting Hill is notably high, with 55.4% of residents aged 15+ holding university qualifications. This compares to 29.8% in the SA4 region and 30.4% nationally as of 2021 data. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 30.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (22.1%) and graduate diplomas (2.4%). Vocational pathways account for 19.0% of qualifications among those aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 10.1% and certificates at 8.9%.

Educational participation is high, with 39.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education as of the latest census data. This includes 22.2% in tertiary education, 6.5% in primary education, and 4.5% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Notting Hill has 16 operational public transport stops, all serving buses. These are covered by 12 different routes, offering a total of 2002 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is deemed good, with residents typically living 286 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outwards daily. Cars remain the primary mode of transportation, used by 77% of residents, while train use stands at 7%, and bus use at 6%. On average, there's one vehicle per dwelling, lower than the regional norm.

According to the 2021 Census, 30.9% of residents work from home, possibly due to COVID-19 conditions. Daily service frequency averages 286 trips across all routes, translating to about 125 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Notting Hill is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions quite low across both younger and older age cohorts

Notting Hill demonstrates above-average health outcomes based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The prevalence of common health conditions was quite low across both younger and older age cohorts. Approximately 50% of the total population (~2,359 people) had private health cover, compared to 56.7% in Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.7%.

Asthma and mental health issues were the most common medical conditions, impacting 6.5% and 6.2% of residents respectively. Additionally, 79.2% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents in Notting Hill are notably healthy with low chronic condition prevalence. The area has 5.2% of residents aged 65 and over (247 people), lower than the 15.0% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors in Notting Hill are above average, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Notting Hill is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Notting Hill has one of the highest linguistic diversities in the country, with 58.9% of its population speaking a language other than English at home. Born overseas, 62.2% of Notting Hill's residents contribute to its cultural richness. Christianity is the predominant religion, comprising 29.9% of the population.

However, Buddhism stands out as the most overrepresented religion in Notting Hill, with 13.4%, significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 4.2%. In terms of ancestry, Chinese residents make up 22.1% of Notting Hill's population, substantially higher than the regional average of 6.5%. The 'Other' category comprises 20.8%, also notably higher than the regional average of 14.6%. English ancestry, however, is underrepresented at 13.1%, compared to the region's average of 20.1%. Notable disparities exist in the representation of certain ethnic groups: Sri Lankan residents are overrepresented at 3.6% (vs 0.8%), Indian at 6.9% (vs 4.2%), and Vietnamese at 3.1% (vs 1.9%).

Notting Hill hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

The median age in Notting Hill as of the 2021 Census was 26 years, which is notably lower than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and younger than Australia's median age of 38. The 15-24 age cohort was significantly over-represented at 37.0% in Notting Hill compared to the Greater Melbourne average, while the 45-54 year-olds were under-represented at 5.9%. This concentration of young adults was higher than the national figure of 12.7%. Between the 2016 and 2021 Census periods, the median age decreased by 4.2 years from 30 to 26, indicating a shift towards a younger demographic. Specifically, the proportion of individuals aged 15-24 increased from 20.1% to 37.0%, while those aged 45-54 declined from 8.9% to 5.9% and the 35-44 age group decreased from 14.6% to 12.2%. Population forecasts for Notting Hill indicate substantial demographic changes by 2041, with the 25-34 age cohort projected to expand significantly by 740 people (61%) from 1,224 to 1,965.