Notting Hill

Population growth drivers in Notting Hill are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

As per ABS population updates and AreaSearch validation for the broader area, the estimated population of Notting Hill as of Feb 2026 is around 4,463. This figure reflects an increase of 1,568 people (54.2%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,895 people. The change was inferred from the resident population of 4,424 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 19 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 2,806 persons per square kilometer, placing Notting Hill in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The suburb's 54.2% growth since the 2021 census exceeded both the national average (9.9%) and the state average, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Examining future trends, a significant population increase in the top quartile of Australian statistical areas is forecasted for Notting Hill, with an expected growth of 2,082 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an overall increase of 45.8% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Notting Hill according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Notting Hill has experienced around 8 dwellings receiving development approval per year over the past five financial years. This totals an estimated 41 homes between FY-20 and FY-25. So far in FY-26, 9 approvals have been recorded. Over these five years, an average of 11.8 people moved to the area for each dwelling built.

Supply has substantially lagged demand, leading to heightened buyer competition and pricing pressures. New properties are constructed at an average value of $508,000, indicating a focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties. In FY-26, commercial development approvals totalled $530,000, demonstrating the area's residential nature. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Notting Hill has significantly less development activity, at 55.0% below the regional average per person. This constrained new construction usually reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings. Nationally, this is also lower, reflecting market maturity and possible development constraints. New development consists of 25.0% detached houses and 75.0% townhouses or apartments, offering affordable entry pathways and attracting downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers.

This represents a shift from the area's existing housing, which is currently 45.0% houses, indicating decreasing availability of developable sites and reflecting changing lifestyles and demand for diverse, affordable housing options. The location has approximately 660 people per dwelling approval, demonstrating an established market. Looking ahead, Notting Hill is expected to grow by 2,043 residents through to 2041, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Notting Hill has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

AreaSearch has identified eight projects that could significantly impact the area's performance due to changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. These include Monash University Campus Development Projects, Suburban Rail Loop East - Monash Station, Monash University Clayton Campus Student Accommodation, and Monash University Campus Centre Redevelopment. The following list details those considered most relevant:.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

The suburb of Notting Hill had a lower than average income level nationally according to ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. The median income among taxpayers was $45,967 and the average income stood at $57,257. These figures compared to Greater Melbourne's median of $57,688 and average of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $49,759 (median) and $61,981 (average) as of September 2025. Census data revealed household, family and personal incomes all ranked modestly in Notting Hill, between the 30th and 39th percentiles. The data showed 34.7% of the population (1,548 individuals) fell within the $1,500 - $2,999 income range, consistent with broader trends across the broader area showing 32.8% in the same category. Housing affordability pressures were severe, with only 80.4% of income remaining, ranking at the 36th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 7th decile.

Notting Hill features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Dwelling structure in Notting Hill, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 45.0% houses and 54.9% other dwellings. In Melbourne metro, this was 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Notting Hill was 21.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 27.6% and rented dwellings at 50.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,876, below Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. Median weekly rent was $371, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Notting Hill's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Notting Hill features high concentrations of group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 59.1% of all households, including 22.0% couples with children, 25.3% couples without children, and 8.0% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 40.9%, with lone person households at 29.8% and group households comprising 11.7%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Educational achievement in Notting Hill places it within the top 10% nationally, reflecting strong academic performance and high qualification levels across the community

Educational attainment in Notting Hill is notably high, with 55.4% of residents aged 15 and over holding university qualifications. This compares to 29.8% in the SA4 region and 30.4% nationally as of the latest available data. The most common qualification is Bachelor degrees at 30.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 22.1% and graduate diplomas at 2.4%. Vocational pathways account for 19.0% of qualifications, with advanced diplomas making up 10.1% and certificates 8.9%.

Educational participation is high, with 39.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 22.2% in tertiary education, 6.5% in primary education, and 4.5% pursuing secondary education as per the most recent statistics.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Notting Hill has 16 operational public transport stops, serving a mix of bus routes. These stops are covered by 12 different routes, offering a total of 2,002 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is considered good, with residents living an average of 286 meters from the nearest stop. As a predominantly residential zone, most inhabitants commute outward. Cars remain the primary mode of transport, used by 77% of residents, followed by trains at 7% and buses at 6%. The average vehicle ownership is 1.0 per dwelling, lower than the regional norm.

According to the 2021 Census, a high proportion of residents, 30.9%, work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. On average, there are 286 daily trips across all routes, equating to around 125 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Notting Hill is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions quite low across both younger and older age cohorts

Notting Hill demonstrates above-average health outcomes based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The prevalence of common health conditions is quite low across both younger and older age cohorts. Approximately 50% of the total population (~2,210 people) has private health cover, compared to 56.7% across Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are asthma and mental health issues, impacting 6.5 and 6.2% of residents respectively. 79.2% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents have low chronic condition prevalence. The area has 5.8% of residents aged 65 and over (258 people), lower than the 15.1% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Notting Hill is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Notting Hill has a population where 58.9% speak a language other than English at home, with 62.2% born overseas. Christianity is the main religion in Notting Hill, accounting for 29.9%. Buddhism comprises 13.4%, significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 4.2%.

The top three ancestry groups are Chinese (22.1%), Other (20.8%), and English (13.1%). Notably, Sri Lankan (3.6%) is overrepresented compared to the regional average of 0.8%, as are Indian (6.9% vs 4.2%) and Vietnamese (3.1% vs 1.9%).

Notting Hill hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Notting Hill's median age is 27 years, which is lower than the Greater Melbourne average of 37 years and also significantly below Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Notting Hill has a higher proportion of residents aged 15-24 (34.6%), but fewer residents aged 45-54 (6.3%). This concentration of residents aged 15-24 is notably higher than the national average of 12.5%. According to the Census conducted in 2021, Notting Hill has become younger, with its median age decreasing by 3.2 years to 27 from a previous figure of 30. Specifically, the proportion of residents aged 15-24 increased from 20.1% to 34.6%, while the proportion of those aged 25-34 decreased from 27.9% to 25.2%, and the proportion of those aged 45-54 dropped from 8.9% to 6.3%. Demographic projections suggest that Notting Hill's age profile will change significantly by the year 2041. The population in the 25-34 age bracket is projected to increase substantially, with an expected rise of 781 people (a 69% increase) from 1,124 to 1,906 residents.