Notting Hill

Population growth drivers in Notting Hill are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, the estimated population of the suburb of Notting Hill is around 4,463 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 1,568 people (54.2%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,895 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 4,424 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 19 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 2,806 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The suburb of Notting Hill's 54.2% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the national average (9.9%), along with the state, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which was essentially the sole driver of population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. As we examine future population trends, a significant population increase in the top quartile of Australian statistical areas is forecast, with the suburb of Notting Hill expected to grow by 1,929 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 28.7% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Notting Hill recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

AreaSearch analysis shows Notting Hill had around 8 dwelling approvals per year over the past 5 financial years, totalling an estimated 42 homes. In FY-26 so far, 8 approvals have been recorded. This results in approximately 11.4 people moving to the area annually for each new dwelling built between FY-21 and FY-25. Commercial development approvals this year totalled $530,000.

Compared to Greater Melbourne, Notting Hill has significantly less development activity (52.0% below average per person). New construction consists of 25.0% detached houses and 75.0% townhouses or apartments. The area currently has approximately 605 people per dwelling approval. By 2041, Notting Hill is expected to grow by 1,279 residents.

Looking ahead, Notting Hill is expected to grow by 1,279 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Notting Hill has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

AreaSearch has identified eight projects that could impact the area significantly. These include major developments like Monash University's campus expansion plans, the Suburban Rail Loop East - Monash Station project, the Clayton Campus Student Accommodation initiative by Monash University, and the Campus Centre Redevelopment. The following list details those most likely to have a notable effect.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

The suburb of Notting Hill had a median income among taxpayers of $45,967 and an average income of $57,257 in the financial year 2023, according to ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. This is lower than the national figures for Greater Melbourne, which were $57,688 and $75,164 respectively. By September 2025, based on an 8.25% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2023, estimated incomes would be approximately $49,759 (median) and $61,981 (average). Census data shows that household, family, and personal incomes in Notting Hill rank modestly, between the 30th and 39th percentiles. In the suburb, 34.7% of the population (1,548 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 income range, which is consistent with broader trends across the broader area showing 32.8% in the same category. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 80.4% of income remaining, ranking at the 36th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Notting Hill features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Notting Hill, as per the latest Census, 45.0% of dwellings were houses, with 54.9% being semi-detached homes, apartments, or other types. This is compared to Melbourne's metropolitan area, where 67.9% of dwellings are houses and 32.1% are other types. Home ownership in Notting Hill stood at 21.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 27.6% and rented ones at 50.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,876, lower than Melbourne's metro average of $2,000. The median weekly rent was $371, compared to Melbourne's metro average of $390. Nationally, Notting Hill's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were lower than the national figure of $375.

Notting Hill features high concentrations of group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 59.1% of all households, including 22.0% couples with children, 25.3% couples without children, and 8.0% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 40.9%, with lone person households at 29.8% and group households comprising 11.7%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Educational achievement in Notting Hill places it within the top 10% nationally, reflecting strong academic performance and high qualification levels across the community

Educational attainment in Notting Hill is notably high, with 55.4% of residents aged 15 years and over holding university qualifications. This compares to 29.8% in the SA4 region and 30.4% nationally as of 2021 data. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 30.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 22.1%. Vocational pathways account for 19.0% of qualifications, with advanced diplomas at 10.1% and certificates at 8.9%.

Educational participation is high, with 39.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education as of the latest data available. This includes 22.2% in tertiary education, 6.5% in primary education, and 4.5% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Notting Hill has 16 active public transport stops serving a mix of bus routes. These stops are covered by 12 different routes, collectively offering 2,002 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 286 metres from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to its residential nature. Car remains the primary mode of transport at 77%, followed by train at 7% and bus at 6%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.0 per dwelling, below the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, a high 30.9% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 286 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 125 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Notting Hill is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions quite low across both younger and older age cohorts

Notting Hill demonstrates above-average health outcomes based on AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence were found to be low across both younger and older age cohorts. Approximately 50% of the total population (~2,210 people) had private health cover, compared to 56.7% in Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions were asthma (6.5%) and mental health issues (6.2%). 79.2% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents had low chronic condition prevalence. As of 30 June 20XX, the area had 6.8% of residents aged 65 and over (303 people), which was lower than the 15.1% in Greater Melbourne. Health outcomes among seniors were above average, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Notting Hill is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Notting Hill has one of the highest language diversity rates in the country, with 58.9% of its residents speaking a language other than English at home. This is followed by birthplace diversity, with 62.2% of Notting Hill's population born overseas. Christianity is the predominant religion in Notting Hill, making up 29.9% of the population.

However, Buddhism is notably overrepresented compared to the Greater Melbourne average, comprising 13.4% of Notting Hill's population. In terms of ancestry, Chinese heritage is significantly higher than regional averages, with 22.1% of Notting Hill's population claiming Chinese ancestry compared to the regional average of 6.5%. 'Other' ancestry also has a substantial presence in Notting Hill at 20.8%, exceeding the regional average of 14.6%. English ancestry is notably lower than regional averages, with 13.1% of Notting Hill's population claiming English heritage compared to the regional average of 20.1%. Certain ethnic groups are notably overrepresented in Notting Hill: Sri Lankan at 3.6%, Indian at 6.9%, and Vietnamese at 3.1%.

Notting Hill hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

The median age in Notting Hill was 26 years old as of the 2021 Census. This figure is lower than Greater Melbourne's average age of 37 and also younger than Australia's national median age of 38. The percentage of individuals aged 15-24 years in Notting Hill was notably higher at 33.8%, compared to Greater Melbourne's average of around 16%. Meanwhile, the proportion of those aged 45-54 years was lower at 7.2% than the Greater Melbourne average. Nationally, the 15-24 age group comprised approximately 12.5% of the population. Between the 2016 and 2021 censuses, Notting Hill's median age decreased by 3.6 years from 30 to 26, indicating a shift towards a younger demographic. The proportion of individuals aged 15-24 increased significantly from 20.1% to 33.8%, while the percentages for those aged 45-54 and 35-44 decreased slightly to 7.2% and 13.3%, respectively. Population forecasts for Notting Hill in 2041 suggest significant demographic changes, with the 25-34 age cohort projected to grow by 587 people (a 47% increase) from 1,240 to 1,828 individuals.